Taming the Shrewd called Trump

It is as clear as day that the US president has incalculable powers. Despite being an elected president, he is a complete autocrat. He can take many decisions at his own without the approval of the Senate and can veto any decision of the Senate. This right is available to the president under the US Constitution.

In his first term, Donald Trump not only unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement reached with Iran by the remaining superpowers, but also imposed more sanctions at his own. After Iran's protests and the superpowers' surrender, Joe Biden has also been imposing new sanctions on Iran.

After being re-elected as president in the recent elections, he has begun to hint at rare royal decrees to be issued after he takes oath on January 20, 2025.

The first decree is that the BRICS countries will not create their own currency and if they dare to make such a mistake, they will be subject to additional tariffs and will not be able to export their products to the United States.

Israel has broken the backs of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria at the behest of the US, and today there are heavy attacks on Yemen. There is a growing fear that Iran will be the next target.

At the same time, Trump has announced to impose new tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products exported to the US.

The limit is that Trump has also announced new tariffs on his allies to undermine the European Union.

I have no qualms in saying that the continued silence of Russia and China and the criminal indifference of the oil-producing Arab countries have given the US the courage to do all this.

Remember, those countries that are silent spectators of the destruction of other countries today will have no one to shed tears over their destruction tomorrow.

Turkey violated Doha agreement on Syria

The Turkish Foreign Minister has claimed that Turkey successfully persuaded Iran and Russia not to intervene militarily during the Syrian rebels' offensive which led to the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad's government in the early hours of December 08. 2024.

The information obtained by the Tehran Times suggests that this assertion contradicts the terms agreed upon in Doha on December 07 between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

In a recent interview with Turkey’s NTV, Hakan Fidan stated, "The most important thing we had to do was to talk to the Russians and Iranians to ensure they would not enter the (Syria) equation with military force. We spoke with the Russians and Iranians, and they understood the issue."

The information obtained by the Tehran Times shows the December 07 summit under the Astana platform saw Turkey agree to a framework enabling direct negotiations between the Syrian President and rebel forces, with Assad remaining in power.

“It was agreed that the Syrian conflict would be resolved through political means, with both the Assad government and the armed opposition entering into dialogue,” a source involved in the Doha talks told the Tehran Times.

“The agreement was signed by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Yet, developments on the ground in Syria on Sunday, December 09, show that Turkey did not adhere to what it had signed.”

Armed factions led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels launched a surprise attack against Syria’s northwestern Aleppo Province on November 27. The militants quickly advanced towards Damascus in the face of the Syrian army’s refusal to resist. 

Reports and evidence show the HTS and its allied factions have been receiving substantial financial and military support from Turkey, the United States, and Israel.

 

Syria to face Libya or Sudan like situation

In a commentary published on December 09, 2024, a Middle East security expert at Princeton University says once the Syrian opposition gets rid of their common enemy and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be. Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Following is the text of the article:

The Baathist system in Syria, after nearly 60 years of rule, has been overthrown and Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow. Syria stood alongside Iran during its invasion by Saddam Hussein, and Iran, in turn, stood with the Syrian and Iraqi governments during the assault by the Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda on Syria and Iraq from 2011 to 2017.

The alliance of Russia, Iran and the Axis of Resistance led to the defeat of militant groups and the preservation of the sovereignty of these two Arab countries. However, at the same time, Assad's government had no alignment with democracy, and western and Arab leaders were fearful and angry about the extensive presence and influence of Iran and Russia in Syria. In any case, the overthrow of the Syrian political system has created a major shift in the region's geopolitics.

In the short term, Iran, Russia, Iraq and the Axis of Resistance will be the main losers from Assad's downfall. The collapse of the Assad government will be a major blow to the axis, weakening Iran's geopolitical influence in the region.

Syria has been the only land route for the supply and transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, and cutting off this route not only creates a strategic challenge for Hezbollah but also weakens Iran's leverage in the Palestinian issue. Moreover, the potential spread of insecurity to Iraq and Iran - and the weakening of Iran's diplomatic support - are significant consequences for Iran and the axis.

Turkey main winner

The fall of the Syrian government could also pose threats to Iraq's security, both in terms of the Kurdish region and from the aspirations of extremist groups for Sunni-majority areas in the country, as well as the potential activation of IS sleeper cells.

In the short term, Israel might find an opportunity to further weaken Hezbollah and the axis in the entire region. However, the activities of new Islamist armed groups at its borders, the rise of Islamist movements and the potential impact on Syria's future stance on the Palestinian issue and the occupied Golan Heights could increase long-term national security threats for Israel.

In the short term, the US and the West will be winners because the fall of Assad will significantly reduce Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

However, the Islamist group that seized Damascus and toppled Assad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was proscribed as a terror organization by the Britain in 2017 and the US in 2018 because of its links to al-Qaeda. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa), who was designated a terrorist by the US in 2013.

It is uncertain how the collapse of Syria's secular government and the rise of Islamists will impact the long-term interests of the US, with the differing perspectives between the US and Turkey on the Kurdish issue, the ambiguity surrounding the future actions of the opposition and the prospect of increasing instability in the region.

Turkey is the main winner. Ankara may hope to resolve the Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey, exert more effective control over the Kurds and strengthen its role in the Palestinian issue, as well as cement alliances with like-minded groups in the region.

While Arab countries are also pleased with the reduction of Iran's influence in Syria, the military operations of HTS and other militant groups were managed and organied by Turkey, all of which have an affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Several Arab countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, are opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideology. Therefore, Turkey's power projection in the region and the Brotherhood's potential future dominance in Syria could be perceived as a new threat by some Arab countries.

Regarding the political future of Syria, two scenarios can be imagined: a peaceful transition to a new system; or a Libyan and Sudanese-style outcome.

A peaceful transition could be achieved if the opposition continues with its moderate rhetoric and actions. However, it is composed of diverse and fragmented groups that have united solely to eliminate a common enemy.

Once this shared enemy is removed and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be.

Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Another important factor is the conflicting interests of the many external actors, who will each try to increase their influence over Syria's situation in various ways.

In any scenario, future developments in Syria will have a significant impact on the region's geopolitics. Therefore, finding a solution that is acceptable to both regional and global powers is crucial.

In April 2017, at the Carnegie Conference in Washington, I proposed 10 principles for resolving the Syrian crisis: 1) Resolving the Syrian crisis through diplomacy, not war; 2) A face-saving solution for all the main parties involved;  3) Serious and collective cooperation to eradicate terrorism from Syria; 4) Preserving Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty; 5) Preventing the collapse of the Syrian army and security institutions; 6) Forming an inclusive government in Syria; 7) Building a new Syria based on the will and vote of the majority of the Syrian nation; 8) Ensuring the protection of minorities in Syria; 9) Holding free elections under the supervision of the United Nations regarding the new government and constitution of Syria; 10) A comprehensive package of economic aid for Syria's reconstruction, the return of refugees, and other humanitarian issues.

Although there was no receptive ear for these ideas at that time, today, these 10 principles could still be a comprehensive and sustainable package to resolve the Syrian crisis.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

Shattering of Axis of Resistance

The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant and unexpected development for Iran, comparable in its surprise to the Taliban’s swift takeover of Kabul in 2021. Iran has been a steadfast ally of Assad, who thought the cost of resistance is less than the cost of compromise. Tehran provided Damascus with substantial military and financial support throughout the Syrian civil war. The sudden downfall of Assad’s government not only disrupts Iran’s strategic foothold in the Levant but also challenges its influence in the broader Middle East region.

The rapid fall of the Western-backed government in Kabul — with which Tehran had sought to engage diplomatically to maintain stability along Iran’s eastern border — similarly caught the Iranian leadership off guard. This event as well as Assad’s toppling both underscore the volatility of regional alliances and the complexities Iran faces in navigating its foreign policy objectives amid rapidly changing political landscapes.

While Iran had at least prepared for a scenario of the Taliban’s return and established some contacts and exchanges with the group even before the latter returned to power, the collapse of the Assad regime, described as a key link in the Axis of Resistance, came more suddenly.

Only a few days before the fall of Damascus to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Iran started evacuating its key assets and personnel, including high-ranking military advisors and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to save critical resources.

It is vital for Iran at this point to secure a role in shaping the future of Syria’s political landscape to prevent an adversarial government and to be able to preserve some level of strategic influence in the region.

Although the common border with Afghanistan is perhaps the number one security concern for Iran to the east, Syria’s strategic value cannot be overstated when it comes to Iran’s western flank.

Syria was the heart of the resistance, which provided a direct link to Hezbollah in Lebanon and supported Iran’s deterrence against Israel. Thus, losing Syria not only disrupts the Axis of Resistance but also weakens Iran’s ability to project power in the region.

In the absence of Iranian proxies on the ground, the resulting power vacuum is likely to be filled by Turkey or Saudi Arabia, which in turn could force Iran to redirect its focus to defending its interests in other places.

At home, the legitimacy of the Iranian regime was severely damaged by its violent crackdowns on the Mahsa Amini protests in late 2022-early 2023. At the same time, Iran’s broad and substantial investments in Syria and elsewhere, which many Iranians saw as a costly miscalculation, intensified public criticism and political dissent over neglected economic issues.

Fears that their country could follow a path toward civil war, similar to those in Syria and Libya, deterred some from advocating for regime change at any cost. If Syria now descends into another civil war with further destruction, it could validate these concerns. However, if Syria manages to form an inclusive and stable government free of revenge, it could inspire Iranians.

In the aftermath of Assad’s collapse, Tehran will likely recalibrate its regional strategy, strengthening its militia networks, particularly Hezbollah and Shi’a militias in Syria and Iraq as the primary focus. These will need to serve as Tehran’s primary tool for projecting power in the absence of a friendly Syrian government.

Iran may also attempt to expand its regional alliances with Russia and China to sustain its ambitions. However, given the outcome of its previous reliance on Moscow to protect the Assad regime, Iran may need to recalculate the level of Russian support it can truly expect.

Rethinking its Syria policy may additionally encourage Tehran to shift from overt to covert approaches — a potentially challenging aim due to Iran’s over-stretched resources.

Assad’s downfall marks a significant setback for Iran’s regional strategy, disrupting the latter’s network of alliances and diminishing its influence in the Levant.

Courtesy: Middle East Institute

 

 

 

Shia-Sunni Conflict in Syria to Get Louder

The current situation in Syria presents three significant implications. First, the recruitment of fighters, motivated by financial incentives or sectarian affiliations, is expected to rise. Second, the majority of these recruits are likely to come from the South Asian region. Videos circulating on social media already show individuals with Pashto or Hazara accents celebrating the withdrawal of Bashar al-Assad’s forces from key cities, leaving behind military-grade weapons, ammunition, and vehicles. Third, existing foot soldiers in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran may see new opportunities to leverage their combat experience, contributing to the rekindling of the Syrian conflict.

Shia militias, including the Zainabiyoun Brigade and other groups from Iraq, are also being drawn into the conflict. As a result, Syria is poised to become the site of escalating sectarian violence, with Sunni and Shia factions, supported by various regional and international actors, facing off.

What Impact Will This Have on the Gaza War?

How will these developments affect the ongoing conflict in Gaza? Will they weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon? And what strategic advantages might Israel and its regional or international allies gain?

Currently, Hamas is on the defensive, and the Syrian situation could demoralize its forces if Bashar al-Assad and his allies lose their grip on power, potentially drawing them into direct confrontation with rebel factions.

Iran and Russia are already evacuating some of their officials, but sectarian fighters loyal to the Assad regime will likely remain in Syria, continuing their resistance. Aerial support for Assad’s forces may still come from select countries, but unless a similar conflict arises in Iraq—where Sunni militias start pushing against Shia factions—a complete collapse of the Assad regime seems unlikely.

A Possible Escalation: Assad's Last Resort?

If Bashar al-Assad feels cornered and believes he must evacuate, he could resort to an extreme measure: launching a direct attack on Israel. What might such an assault look like?

First, a safe zone could be established for Iranian, Russian, or Syrian officials in the border region of Iraq, enabling them to continue strategizing and coordinating efforts in Syria and beyond.

Second, there would be a need for a large influx of Shia fighters into Syria and Lebanon to counteract new rebel offensives or Israeli airstrikes against Assad’s regime. These fighters could also act as conduits for weapons flowing into Lebanon, strengthening Hezbollah and other allies.

Coupled with aerial support, these forces could give Assad a better chance of reclaiming lost territories.

Wider Regional Implications: Yemen and Saudi Arabia

The sectarian tensions in Syria could also spill over into other parts of the region, particularly Yemen and Saudi Arabia, exacerbating existing conflicts there.

Syrian counteroffensive against infiltrators

The Syrian Arab Army has launched a major counteroffensive against terrorist groups who waged a surprise assault from the northwestern city of Idlib. Government forces have successfully halted the advance of terrorists led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), aligned with al-Qaeda.

Fighting between the Syrian army and HTS-led terrorists has reportedly expanded from western Aleppo city to southwest of Aleppo, east of Idlib in the vicinity of Saraqib city, and southeast of Idlib.

Terrorists have been launching major attacks on these fronts since Friday morning, intending to breach Aleppo.

A large majority of the terrorists who have been killed are foreigners, according to Syrian army sources.

After reinforcements, Special Forces were dispatched to the region, the army took back control of one village from the terrorists in southeastern Idlib after heavy clashes.

In two other villages, terrorists have been forced to retreat to Idlib city.

The counteroffensive has seen heavy rocket barrages and Russian-Syrian warplanes targeting the positions of the HTS-led Joint Operations Room.

Terror groups are reportedly attempting to open a new front after failing to advance toward a main highway called M5.

Intense battles are also taking place south of Idlib, which is under Syrian army control.

Russian and Syrian airstrikes have stretched from villages that had been taken over by terrorist groups in Western Aleppo and newly established HTS supply lines in Jabal al-Zawiya (Zawiya Mountains), south of Idlib.

Meanwhile, heavy fighting continues on two fronts in Aleppo’s countryside between the Syrian army and terrorist groups who are fiercely trying to make advances.

Syrian warplanes also targeted terrorists near the city of Marea, north of Aleppo.

According to reports, clashes persist in Saraqib, west of the Aleppo-Damascus highway, as militants fail to make any breakthrough.

The Syrian army also repelled militant attacks on a front southwest of Aleppo city, thwarting four attacks from Thursday evening until Friday morning.

Additionally, the army repelled five successive assaults on Andan, northwest of Aleppo, inflicting heavy casualties among the terror groups.

Violent clashes are also ongoing in the town of Mansoura, west of Aleppo, as militants tried unsuccessfully to enter. The town is less than two kilometers from Aleppo.

Reports indicate that large convoys of militants, heavy weapons, and other ammunition entered through a Syrian crossing with Turkey, heading toward combat fronts in western Aleppo and southern Idlib.

Syrian warplanes monitored the convoys entering the town of Marea and conducted airstrikes targeting terrorist positions and some of the newly arrived military vehicles.

In recent days, HTS, alongside factions of the Turkish-backed groups, launched a surprise broad offensive on Syrian army positions in Idlib province and the city of Aleppo. Reports suggest that HTS used new weapons, including Ukrainian drones.

On Wednesday, at least 400 militants linked to HTS were killed while attacking Syrian army positions in Aleppo and Idlib, according to Oleg Yegnasiyuk, deputy chief of the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria.

Analysts have been quick to point out that the timing of the terror offensive on Aleppo, which has led to the martyrdom of a senior Iranian military advisor in Syria, coincided with the Israeli ceasefire with Lebanon.

On Wednesday, the 60-day truce ended the daily exchange of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli military since October 08, 2023.

The last battle in Aleppo saw similar terrorist groups defeated in 2017 when the Syrian army, backed by Iranian military advisors and Russia, liberated the ancient city.

It was widely believed to be the turning point in the more than a decade-long Syrian war on terrorism that saw militants, who had once controlled large swathes of Syria, holed up in Idlib.

Northwest of Syria, where there are oil reserves, is also occupied by the United States military and mostly US-backed Kurdish rebels.

Turkey has maintained an illegal occupation in the northern Syrian border near Idlib over the past years as well.

This is while the Israeli regime has, for decades now, occupied the Syrian Golan Heights in another threat to the stability of the Arab country.

 

Erdogan calls for Islamic alliance against Israel

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday Islamic countries should form an alliance against what he called "the growing threat of expansionism" from Israel, drawing a rebuke from the Israeli foreign minister.

He made the comment after describing what Palestinian and Turkish officials said was the killing by Israeli troops of a Turkish-American woman taking part in a protest on Friday against settlement expansion in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

"The only step that will stop Israeli arrogance, Israeli banditry, and Israeli state terrorism is the alliance of Islamic countries," Erdogan said at an Islamic schools' association event near Istanbul.

He said recent steps that Turkey has taken to improve ties with Egypt and Syria are aimed at "forming a line of solidarity against the growing threat of expansionism," which he said also threatened Lebanon and Syria.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a statement that Erdogan's remark was "a dangerous lie and incitement," and that the Turkish leader has been working for years with Iran to undermine the region's moderate Arab regimes.

Erdogan hosted Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Ankara this week and they discussed the Gaza war and ways to further repair their long-frozen ties during what was the first such presidential visit in 12 years.

Ties between them started thawing in 2020 when Turkey began diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with estranged regional rivals, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Erdogan said in July that Turkey would extend an invitation to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "any time" for possible talks to restore relations between the two neighbours, who severed ties in 2011 after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war.

Israel's military said after Friday's incident that it was looking into reports that a female foreign national "was killed as a result of shots fired in the area. The details of the incident and the circumstances in which she was hit are under review."

 

Deteriorating Israel-Turkey Relations

Middle East Institute has scheduled an event titled Israel-Turkey Relations: How Can the Negative Momentum Be Reversed?

Our reply is simple, “There is pressure of Turkey to sever its diplomatic relations with Israel after the genocide of more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children in Gaza enclave”.

We also suggest our readers to register to listen and participate the live debate and make up their opinions. Please remember that at present the United States and European countries are working on “Abraham Accords II”, after Abraham Accords lost it value.

During the discussion the participants will make effort to find replies to various questions that include:

Can Turkey-Israel ties survive the current crisis?

What would it take to turn the trajectory of relations around?

Who could potentially drive positive change on both sides?

As the bargain hunter, the Middle East Institute has invited many to a virtual panel discussion featuring prominent Israeli, Turkish, and American experts who will seek to answer these and other questions related to the future of Turkey-Israel relations.

The harsh reality is that Turkey-Israel relations have gone through many ups and downs over the past 75 years but never touched the present low level. The current bilateral crisis may be the most serious yet. Following a period of positive momentum, which peaked in September 2023, relations have deteriorated since the beginning of the war in Gaza.

The institute believes that the harsh political rhetoric, limits on direct trade, and a halt to people-to-people exchanges have all taken a toll.

It has a strange rationale that despite these growing challenges, the two countries still share many strategic interests; while non-governmental players and key business sectors — which often do not share their national leaderships’ ideologies or value systems — continue to seek ways to bilaterally engage.

 

 

 

Turkey disapproves cooperating with Israel

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday it is not possible for NATO to continue its partnership with the Israeli administration.

"Until comprehensive, sustainable peace is established in Palestine, attempts at cooperation with Israel within NATO will not be approved by Turkey," Erdogan said at a news conference at the NATO summit.

Turkey also continues its diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, he said.

Erdogan said as well that he has instructed Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to start to restore relations with Syria.

Turkey will extend an invitation to Assad "any time" for possible talks to restore relations between the two neighbours, Erdogan had said on Sunday.

Regarding F-16 sales to Turkey, Erdogan said, "I talked to Mr. Biden. I will solve this problem in 3-4 weeks”.

In March, the United States Senate defeated an effort to stop a US$23 billion sale of F-16 jets and modernization kits to Turkey allowed by President Joe Biden's administration after Turkey approved Sweden joining the NATO alliance.

He also said Turkey expects solidarity from NATO allies in its fight against terrorism.

"It is not possible for us to accept the crooked relationship that some of our allies have established especially with the PYD/YPG, the extension of the terrorist organization PKK in Syria," he said.

Turkey says the YPG militia is a terrorist organization, closely tied to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group. Turkey's Western allies list the PKK as terrorist group, but not the YPG.

Turkey's goal is to become a permanent member, not just an observer, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Erdogan also said.

The SCO is a security, political and economic club launched in 2001 by Russia and China and Central Asian states as a counterweight to Western alliances.

 

 

Iran Oil Show 2024 opens today

Despite all the propaganda against Iran oil industry's international successes and its energy diplomacy approach, the growing number of foreign oil companies’ presence at the 28th Oil Show is a clear sign of rising trust in Iran’s oil industry.

Director of the 28th Iran International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition, known as Iran’s Oil Show 2024, Gholamreza Jamali, made the remarks during a press conference on May 06 in Tehran adding the exhibition opens its doors to the public on May 08.

Jamali said that 1750 oil industry related companies, including 250 foreign companies from 12 countries including Russia, China, Germany, France, Japan, Belarus, India, Canada, Italy, Turkey, Austria and Argentina shows that Iran’s oil show is not only one of the largest oil exhibitions at home but also in the West Asia region.

The great achievements of Iran’s oil industry over the last two years, is due to the support of the Minister of Petroleum, Jamali said at the press conference.

A number of companies failed to take part in this year’s oil exhibition mainly due to lack of appropriate infrastructures expressing hope improvement in the facilities to provide proper conditions for participation of all companies in the next rounds of oil exhibitions.

Elsewhere in his remarks he said, a number of world high-ranking officials have been invited to participate at the opening ceremony of the exhibition.

According to him, while during last year’s oil exhibition, just 2 thousand square meters had been allocated to accommodate foreign companies, this space has been expanded this year so that the foreign companies’ exclusive space reaches 5 thousand square meters.

 As far as it concerns allocating spaces, the organizers have decided to pay attention to the arrangement based on upstream, midstream and downstream activities and the halls and booths locations are somehow related to the subject of value chain in the oil industry

In order to support the technological innovations in the oil industry, an especial space has been allocated to the knowledge-based companies, technological companies, universities and start-ups, he also said.

Pointing out that numerous side events that will be held on the sidelines of the exhibition, the director of the Tehran Oil Show 2024 announced that many of these events would lead to the signing of contracts and memorandums of understanding in the oil industry, resulting in boosting production with economic results.

Jamali noted that providing appropriate conditions for direct connection between private and public sector activists is one of the main functions of the oil exhibition every year, which often faces some obstacles over the year due to the existence of administrative bureaucracy.

Announcing the slogan of this year's oil exhibition as "Oil industry, production leap, technological optimization", he said, "At this year’s exhibition we will reveal some equipment for the first time which is very important in view of meeting domestic needs and exporting to other countries."

The International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition as the main and most important oil event in Iran is held annually by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) with the support of the Petroleum Ministry.

The Petroleum Ministry’s subsidiaries including the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) and the National Petrochemical Company (NPC) have an active presence in the event.

Iran Oil Show 2024 is being held from May 08 to May 11 at Tehran International Permanent Fairground.

Genocide in Gaza by Israel would have not been possible without silence of Muslim rulers

Many analysts, including me, have not been able to comprehend the reasons of silence of Muslim rulers on the genocide going on in Gaza for more than 100 days. Today, I read a post at LinkedIn and sharing it with readers of my blog.

In November 2023 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "I say to the Arab leaders, if you want to preserve your interests, you must do one thing, Remain silent."

They have complied with this demand as if it were a command revealed by Allah (God). Abdullah of Jordan has mobilized his armed forces to protect the border for the IDF, Sisi of Egypt has ensured the Israeli terrorist genocide continues in all its forms including starvation and preventing aid from reaching Gaza. Even Erdogan from Turkey did not want to be left out in serving Netanyahu, he has increased trade with the Zionist entity ensuring they have essential resources such as steel for weaponry and munitions.

It will not be wrong to say that the Muslim rulers have played a pivotal role in this genocide and have worked tirelessly to silence their own populations and have threatened their own armed forces from even thinking of taking action to save the people of Gaza.

It is easy to infer that these rulers are truly loyal servants of Israel and without their help genocide in Gaza would not have been possible.

Israeli President Herzog should confer the most prestigious award, ‘The Israeli Presidential Medal of Honor’ to these rulers.

 

Bangladesh: Apparel export to EU falls 20%

Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the European Union (EU) in the 11 months, from January to November 2023, declined by 19.92% to 16.26 billion euro from 20.30 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Exporters said that the shipment of readymade garments to the EU market decreased in recent months due to the economic slowdown caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Global brands and buyers also placed orders in lower quantity due to the election time in Bangladesh but the orders started to increase after the national election in the country.

They hoped that the export to EU would rebound in the next quarter as buyers started to increase their orders thanks to easing inflation.

According to data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the readymade garment imports of the EU from the world in January-November 2023 fell by nearly 10% cent to 82.71 billion euro from 91.89 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Apparel imports of the EU from China in the first 11 months of 2023 declined by 21.42% to 21.15 billion euro from 26.92 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Although China remained the top apparel exporter to the EU in value, the Eurostat data showed that, in terms of volume, Bangladesh emerged as the highest knitwear exporter to the market in January-November 2023.

Bangladesh’s woven garment exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 were reported at 6.89 billion kilogram while those of China were 5.74 billion kilogram.

In value terms, Bangladesh’s knitwear exports to the EU in January-November of 2023 were reported at 9.94 billion euro against China’s exports of 10.48 billion euro during the period under review.

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Faruque Hassan recently said that apparel exports to the EU would come back on a positive track in the second quarter of 2024 as the inflation was coming down in the western countries and retail sales were getting better.

He also said that not only Bangladesh but also all the major RMG suppliers witnessed negative growth in the EU and the United States as the global demand decreased due to the economic turmoil.

Apparel imports of the EU from Turkey in January-November of 2023 declined by 13.42% to 9.20 billion euro from 10.62 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

India’s RMG exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 also fell by 11.87% to 3.81 billion euro from 4.33 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

As against this, apparel imports of the EU from Vietnam during January-November of 2023 grew by 2.48% to 3.49 billion euro from 3.40 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Raisi visit to Turkey to focus on Gaza

According to Reuters, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Ankara on January 04, 2024 to meet his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan for talks likely to focus on the situation in Gaza and Syria as well as bilateral ties.

A visit by Raisi in late November was postponed due to the conflicting schedules of the two regional powers. At the time, Turkey's foreign minister was in New York as part of a contact group of Muslim countries on Gaza.

Turkey, which supports a two-state solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has harshly criticized Israel for its attacks on Gaza, called for an immediate ceasefire, and said Israeli leaders should be tried in international courts for war crimes.

While it has ramped up its rhetoric against Israel since it launched its air and ground assault on Gaza in retaliation for Palestinian militant group Hamas' October 07 attack, Turkey has also maintained commercial ties with Israel, prompting criticism from some opposition parties and Iran.

Unlike its Western allies and some Arab nations, NATO member Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist group.

Its neighbor, Iran stands at the head of what it calls the Axis of Resistance, a loose coalition that includes Hamas as well as armed Shi'ite Muslim groups around the region that have militarily confronted Israel and its Western allies. It has voiced support for Hamas and warned of wider consequences if the fighting in Gaza continues.

Turkey and Iran have usually had complicated ties, standing at loggerheads on a host of issues, primarily the Syrian civil war. Ankara politically and militarily backs rebels looking to oust President Bashar al-Assad, while Tehran supports his government.

While several rounds of talks have been held between Syrian, Turkish, Iranian and Russian representatives to find a political solution to the war, Ankara has also moved to improve ties with Assad as part of a regional diplomatic push launched in 2020.

 

 

Iranian ship stuck in Turkey gets ready to sail

Stuck in a Turkish port for three years, an Iranian container ship is a rusty reality check on the reach of economic sanctions.

Blacklisted by the US since 2020, the 187-meter-long (614 feet) vessel Shamim has been moored at Istanbul’s state-run port of Haydarpasa since unloading there in January 2021. She suffered engine problems near Spain in late 2020 and was tugged some 2,200 miles — probably shunned by western shipyards it passed along the way.

During its Turkish hiatus, Shamim became part of the backdrop for commuters ferrying between the city’s European and Asian sides. It’s been there so long a dedicated page appeared on a local social media website where users shared theories about what kept it there.

A poem was penned in its honor. Others suspected it was a curse.

“The day this ship leaves Haydarpasa port, the dark clouds in my life will be lifted,” someone wrote.

But the bonding with the marooned ship may soon be over. Shamim performed tests throughout Monday and Tuesday ahead of an expected departure, Bloomberg News reported.

Washington sanctioned the Iran-flagged ship using measures designed to crimp the Iranian economy and hinder its development of nuclear technology. Iran says its atomic program is for peaceful purposes and not for nuclear weapons.

Shipping in the region has turned even dicier since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

US Treasury Under Secretary Brian Nelson last month asked Istanbul shipping companies for their cooperation in stopping what he described as an uptick in US-sanctioned Russian vessels using Turkish ports.

Despite the risks, Turkey remains an attractive place to do business for many Iranians thanks to its proximity, visa-free travel and connections to the global financial system.

After years of decline, trade between the countries has been rising since 2020, making Turkey the Islamic Republic’s second-biggest export market, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Germany on wrong side of history again

For a state visit, Friday's visit by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Germany is remarkably low key. He was scheduled to meet German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and then have dinner with the chancellor, Olaf Scholz.

Apart from the intense security in the centre of the capital — the same level as precautions taken for US presidential visits — the German government hopes Erdogan's visit will pass with little notice. That's because this event couldn't come at the worst time for Germany.

Relations between President Erdogan and successive German governments have been difficult for years, with spats between Berlin and Ankara regularly breaking out. When German government spokespeople mention the phrase difficult partner you know they're talking about President Erdogan.

The Hamas atrocities in Israel on October 07, and Israel's subsequent retaliation in Gaza, have left Germany and Turkey on opposite sides of the conflict. Over the past month the Turkish president has become increasingly strident in his criticism of Israel.

He has refused to condemn the killings and hostage-taking by Hamas, referring to the group as liberators. Hamas is classed as a terrorist organization by Western allies, including Germany.

He has also appeared to call into question the Jewish state's existence by saying that Israel's own fascism undermined its legitimacy.

Jewish leaders in Germany have accused Erdogan of fuelling antisemitism with such comments and there have been calls for the German government to cancel the Turkish president's visit.

For Germany, historical Nazi guilt for the Holocaust means that support for the state of Israel is non-negotiable and a key cornerstone of Berlin's foreign policy. When asked in a news conference earlier this week about President Erdogan's comments Chancellor Scholz called them absurd.

Both Olaf Scholz and former Chancellor Angela Merkel have repeatedly called Israel's security Germany's Staatsräson, or reason of state, a vague term German leaders use to express the idea of unwavering German support for Israel.

But as Israeli attacks on Gaza intensify, and the death toll rises, that principle is coming under strain.

After the initial shock of the Hamas attacks, German mainstream media is increasingly also portraying the humanitarian suffering in Gaza, leading to a growing unease about Israel's actions.

On German streets outrage at Israel's actions is growing and pro-Palestinian demonstrations have been held most weekends since October 07. Germany has large Arab diaspora communities with links to, or sympathy for, people in Gaza. Support for Palestinians is also traditionally a totemic issue for some German left-wing groups.

There are fears that any comments about the conflict by President Erdogan during his visit could inflame tensions. But Germany and Turkey need each other. Germany is an important trade partner for Turkey. It also is home to the world's largest Turkish diaspora community and is an electoral battleground for President Erdogan. He is popular with some German-Turks.

Around three million people of Turkish heritage live in Germany, with half of them still able to vote. In May a majority of Turkish voters in Germany who took part in the election put their cross by Erdogan.

Berlin, meanwhile, needs Turkish help to control migration from the Middle East. Chancellor Scholz is hoping to revive a refugee pact with Turkey to send back asylum seekers and wants more Turkish support for the West in Russia's war in Ukraine.

Behind closed doors on Friday those issues were to be discussed. But the German government would be more nervous about what President Erdogan might say in public.

It was in May, after Erdogan's re-election as Turkish president, that Chancellor Scholz issued the invitation to Berlin. He probably now wishes he hadn't.

 

Erdogan terms Israeli assaults in Gaza massacre

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that Israel's blockade and bombing of Gaza in retaliation for Palestinian militant group Hamas' attack was a disproportionate response amounting to a massacre.

With Ankara offering to mediate, Erdogan and his foreign minister held calls with regional powers, the United States and others. However, Israel's envoy to Ankara has said it is too early to discuss mediation.

Speaking to his ruling AK Party in parliament, Erdogan said even war had a morality but the flare-up since the weekend had very severely violated that.

"Preventing people meeting their most fundamental needs and bombing housing where civilians live - in short, conducting a conflict using every sort of shameful method - is not a war, it's a massacre," he said, referring to Israel cutting off electricity and water to Gaza and destroying infrastructure.

Turkey, which has backed Palestinians in the past and hosted members of Hamas, has been working to mend ties with Israel after years of animosity. Unlike the European Union and US, Ankara does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization.

While not openly blaming Israel, Turkey has said the fighting is due to years of injustices against Palestinians and that the only path to peace is the formation of a sovereign Palestinian state in a two-state solution.

On Wednesday, Erdogan criticised Israel's disproportionate attacks on Gaza as devoid of any ethical foundation, and called on the world not to blindly take one side. Leaving the underlying issue unresolved would lead to new, more violent conflicts, he warned.

"We call on countries in the Americas, Europe, and other regions to take up a position between the parties that is fair, just, and based on humanitarian balances. Everyone should refrain from acts that will wholly punish the Palestinian people, like blocking humanitarian aid," he said.

Bank of China opens branch in Saudi Arabia

China’s most internationalized state bank on Tuesday opened its first branch in Saudi Arabia in a move to expand the use of yuan amid a growing number of economic deals between the two countries.

Bank of China (BOC), one of China’s four biggest state-owned banks, opened its branch in Riyadh, the capital city of the oil-rich Middle Eastern country, more than two years after being given approval by the Saudi Arabian government.

The branch has more than 20 staff, with a majority hired locally – a condition requested by local authorities.

It is the second Chinese bank to open a branch in Saudi Arabia after the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) opened its first branch in Riyadh in 2015. ICBC also opened a branch in Jeddah in May.

China’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Chen Weiqing, said the opening of the branch was a result of positive developments in the bilateral relations between the two countries, and new stage of financial cooperation.

“It also shows that China highly recognizes the financial regulations, investment environment, and geographical advantages of Saudi Arabia,” Chen said, as he attended the opening ceremony with Bank of China president Liu Jin.

Saudi Central Bank governor Ayman al-Sayari and Saudi Arabia’s deputy investment minister, Saleh Ali Khabti, also attended the opening ceremony along with 250 guests.

The Saudi-listed ACWA Power, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment, Ajlan & Bros Holding Group and Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group signed memorandums of understanding involving internationalizing the yuan and green financing with BOC during the opening ceremony, the statement added.

The move came as part of a growing series of economic activities between China and Saudi Arabia, with their bilateral relations described as being at the best stage ever following President Xi Jinping’s state visit in December 2022, with both countries facing souring relations with the West.

During the trip at the end of last year, Xi pledged to work towards widening the use of yuan in oil and gas trade in the region, amid a push to establish the currency internationally and weaken the US dollar’s grip on world trade.

Saudi Arabia is China’s largest source of crude oil imports, with 87.5 million metric tons (641 million barrels) shipped in 2022.

Amid efforts by state banks to tap potential in the Middle East, BOC’s new branch has been licensed to provide basic commercial banking services to individual consumers and small- to medium-sized businesses, ranging from deposit accounts and loans to mortgages and yuan transactions.

At the weekend, BOC president Liu also met Khaled Mohamed Salem Balama Al Tameemi, the governor of the central bank of the United Arab Emirates, to court more support for its yuan clearing in the region and potential cooperation with the nation’s sovereign wealth funds.

In an interview with local media in June, BOC said the new branch aimed to offer the yuan to the wider Middle East region to assist commercial and financial trade between China, Saudi Arabia and beyond.

As there are many Chinese companies entering the market in the region, being able to trade and make financial transactions using the yuan would encourage Chinese companies to invest in the area.

The Saudi Arabian government first agreed to allow BOC to open its branch in January 2020. At the time, Saudi Arabia had only 14 foreign banks, including ICBC.

BOC also has existing branches in Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the UAE, as well as Bahrain, Turkey and Qatar.

Li Tong, president of the bank’s investment banking unit, Bank of China International, said in June during the Arab-China Business Conference in Riyadh that the new branch in Riyadh would push for financial cooperation, and further boost economic cooperation between the two countries.

The bank has also been in discussion with local counterparts to offer panda bonds – yuan-denominated bonds sold by overseas entities in China’s onshore bond market to raise investments in China.

A number of other banking sector collaborations have also been announced this year.

In March, the Export-Import Bank of China announced a first loan cooperation with Saudi National Bank, Saudi Arabia’s largest bank, in yuan.

Hong Kong has also been named as a major hub for financial cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia.

In July, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank, signed a memorandum of understanding with the Saudi Central Bank, pledging initiatives in financial infrastructure development, open market operations, market connectivity and sustainable development.

 

 

Iranian export to ECO members on the rise

Iran exported over US$3.6 billion worth of commodities to the members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) in the first four months of the current Iranian calendar year. This reflected a 4.52%YoY increase, said an official with the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA).

According to Omid Golzari, the head of the IRICA Office of International Affairs and Public Relations, Iran exported 8.161 tons of goods to the ECO members during the said period, Tasnim News Agency reported.

The volume of exports also increased by 31.24% as compared to the same period last year.

As previously announced by the IRICA head, Iran’s trade with the members of the Economic Cooperation Organization reached US$20.5 billion in the previous Iranian calendar year.

According to Mohammad Rezvani-Far, Iran exported US$13 billion worth of commodities to the said nations last year, while the imports were recorded at US$7.5 billion.

Referring to the trade potentials of ECO member countries in various fields, such as rail and land transport, common borders, as well as territorial and population size, Rezvani-Far said the volume of commercial exchanges with ECO members should be more than this figure.

“IRICA is fully prepared to take the necessary measures for increasing the volume of trade and transit exchanges with ECO members in order to achieve the organization’s goals set according to the ECO agreement,” he said.

The official underlined the development of transit ties with ECO members as a way of boosting trade exchanges with the mentioned countries.

“Iran has many customs agreements and memorandums with ECO member countries, and in order for these agreements to be operational in line with the provisions of the ECO agreement, it is suggested that the ECO secretariat announces the necessary measures needed to be taken with the cooperation of the members,” he noted.

Iran and ECO members traded more than 23.723 million tons of goods worth US$11.71 billion during the previous Iranian calendar year, of which the share of exports was 18.419 million tons of goods worth US$6.890 billion and the share of imports from these countries was 5.312 million tons worth US$4.819 billion.

Petroleum products, dairy products, foodstuff, fresh and dried fruits, juices and citrus fruits, carpets, saffron, fish, caviar, ornamental aquatic products, various stones, construction equipment, clothing, industrial equipment, bags and shoes, medicine, and health supplies, as well as plastic products, were Iran’s main exported items to ECO members last year, while basic goods, industrial machinery, raw materials for production, and medical supplies and medicine, were the top imported goods from ECO member states.

The Economic Cooperation Organization or ECO is an Asian political and economic intergovernmental organization that was founded in 1985 in Tehran by the leaders of Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey.

Turkey: Navigation affected due to wildfires

More than 150 vessels, including 23 tanker and 33 dry bulk vessels were halted at the northern and southern entrances of Turkey’s Dardanelles straits amidst raging wildfires in coastal regions, with northbound shipping resuming by late Thursday

Ship traffic resumed on Thursday in one direction in Turkey's Dardanelles Strait, its forestry minister said, as firefighters brought a major blaze in the northwest Canakkale region under control.

The strait, which links the Aegean Sea and Black Sea to the north, is a major shipping route for commodities such as oil and grains.

More than 150 ships had been halted at the north and south entrances to the Dardanelles on Wednesday evening to allow for helicopters and planes to scoop up water to douse the flames.

"We have brought the fire under control before 48 hours were up ... Our only consolation is that there has been no loss of life," Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli told reporters.

Aerial vehicles will continue cooling efforts throughout the day on Thursday and ship traffic in the Dardanelles resumed in one direction, he said, without specifying which one.

Shipping agency Tribeca said northbound ships would be allowed to transit the Dardanelles after 0800 GMT on Thursday.

Helicopters and land vehicles battled after darkness fell on Wednesday to contain the fire and ship traffic resumed for several hours before being halted again just after midnight GMT.

More than 1,200 people from 11 villages have been evacuated from the path of the fire, which broke out in Cannakale province on Tuesday and was fanned by high temperatures, dry air and strong winds.

Some 90 people suffered injuries from the fire, which affected 4,080 hectares around 11861 acres, including forest and agricultural land, authorities said. No deaths were reported.

 

First commercial ship leaves Ukraine port since February 2022

According to Seatrade Maritime News, Joseph Schulte is the first commercial ship to leave Odessa port of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports on Wednesday, since the beginning of the war in February 2022.

The 9,400 teu Joseph Schulte, owned by German company Bernard Schulte and had been operated by MSC, which has been docked in the war-torn port of Odessa since the conflict in Ukraine began left for Turkey, ostensibly under ballast.

In July the Russians refused to renew the agreement that allowed bulk vessels to operate the grain corridor, exporting foodstuff to maintain populations in the Middle East and Africa.

In bringing that agreement to an end Russia effectively renewed its blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for commercial as well as military shipping. The departure of the Hong Kong flagged Joseph Schulte from Odessa will test Russia’s resolve to maintain that blockade.

On 13 August a Russian Navy vessel, fired warning shots across the bow of the Palau-flagged Sukru Okan, with troops boarding and searching the bulk carrier.

Nevertheless, Daniil Melnychenko, an analyst at transport consultancy Informall, based in Odessa, told Seatrade Maritime News, “The expectations are that Türkiye flagged ships that were stuck here in Ukraine since the beginning of the war will also leave the big Odessa regional ports.”

According to Melnychenko many of the bulk carriers that have been docked in southern Ukraine are Turkish flagged vessels, so the departure of the container ship has heightened expectations that others will follow.

VesselsValue reports suggest that the Joseph Schulte vessel, which MSC has confirmed is no longer in its fleet, will first call at the Luk Sintez Oil Terminal to load bunkers. It will then sail to the Turkish port of Ambarli on the north shore of the Marmara Sea, on the European side of Istanbul, to offload the few containers on board and for inspection.

Melnychenko added that the vessel will likely be crewed by a mixture of Turkish and older Ukrainian men, over 60-years-old.