Economic Assassination: US Pressure Crippling Venezuelan Economy

Donald Trump’s revived “maximum pressure” strategy on Venezuela is no longer an abstract policy tool; it is inflicting visible damage on the country’s economic core. The clearest impact is unfolding in the oil sector, where state-run PDVSA has begun shutting down wells in the Orinoco Belt as inventories swell and tanker seizures disrupt exports. What began as pressure aimed at political leverage is increasingly resembling economic strangulation.

For much of 2025, Venezuela’s oil output had been staging a cautious recovery. Production averaged around 1.165 million barrels per day in November, a 20%YoY increase that provided a rare fiscal lifeline. That momentum now appears fragile.

According to Bloomberg, PDVSA plans to cut Orinoco Belt output by at least 25%, reducing production to roughly 500,000 barrels per day. Such a reduction could wipe out nearly 15% of Venezuela’s total liquids production, reversing much of the year’s gains and intensifying balance of payments stress in an economy already under strain.

The cuts are being applied selectively, underscoring the depth of operational constraints. Extra-heavy crude from the Junín block is expected to be curtailed first, as these fields depend heavily on imported diluents. Lighter crude fields, requiring fewer blending inputs, are being kept online for as long as possible to preserve limited export capacity.

While diluent flows have not fully stopped, these are increasingly unreliable. Russian suppliers have delivered four tankers of naphtha so far in December, even as seizures of very large crude carriers continue. Yet supply disruptions are no longer the sole bottleneck. Limited storage for upgraded bituminous crude, combined with constrained export routes, is turning unsold oil into stranded inventory. Wells are being shut not for lack of reserves, but for lack of access to markets.

The broader implications are difficult to ignore. Sanctions are no longer merely restricting Venezuela’s ability to sell oil; they are shaping production decisions inside the country. When external pressure determines which wells remain operational, the line between economic coercion and economic punishment becomes increasingly blurred.

Whether this amounts to “economic assassination” is open to debate. What is clear is that the costs extend beyond political elites. With oil revenues underpinning the entire economy, Venezuela’s fragile recovery risks sliding into renewed contraction—raising uncomfortable questions about the humanitarian and strategic price of maximum pressure.