US Revival of Prize Law Could Transform Maritime Risks

The United States is preparing to revive a largely dormant maritime legal framework that could significantly expand its power to seize vessels and cargo during armed conflicts. The proposed rules, published by the US District Court for the Southern District of Texas, could revive prize law, which has not been invoked since the aftermath of World War II.

Unlike conventional civil forfeiture, which generally allows vessel owners, cargo interests and other claimants to contest seizures, prize law determines whether ships or cargo can be lawfully captured as enemy property, contraband or property involved in violating a blockade. Under this framework, ownership could transfer immediately to the capturing nation, which may appropriate the property for government use or sell it, with proceeds deposited into the US Treasury.

The proposed procedures would establish modern mechanisms for presenting evidence, verifying ownership, limiting discovery and hearing appeals. The court has invited public comments until October 23, 2026, before deciding whether to adopt the rules.

The timing is significant. As military operations in the Middle East intensify, Washington appears increasingly interested in restricting Iran's ability to export oil and sustain maritime trade. Prize law could provide an additional instrument to enforce blockades, extending the risk beyond sanctioned tankers to third-party vessels and cargoes caught violating lawful wartime restrictions.

This development could fundamentally alter the risk calculations of shipping companies, charterers, cargo owners and insurers. Vessels that are not themselves sanctioned may nevertheless face capture if their activities fall within the scope of applicable wartime rules. Consequently, route planning, insurance coverage, ownership transparency and security assessments would assume greater importance.

The implications extend to Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia's Eastern Outer Ports Limit anchorage, where opaque ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian crude destined for China have attracted attention. Complex ownership structures, indirect cargo movements and deceptive shipping practices could complicate enforcement while increasing the risk of regional maritime disputes.

However, the revival of prize law raises concerns about potential overreach. Although the proposed procedures may strengthen enforcement against blockade evasion, their application must remain consistent with international law, due process and legitimate commercial interests. Broad or arbitrary seizures could undermine confidence in maritime trade and intensify geopolitical tensions.

The strategic takeaway is clear: an old wartime instrument could become a powerful tool of modern economic pressure. Shipping companies must reassess their exposure, while governments and maritime authorities should prepare for a more contested trading environment. The revival of prize law may strengthen Washington's enforcement capabilities, but its legitimacy will ultimately depend on transparent procedures, legal safeguards and disciplined implementation.

Beyond Refining: Building Pakistan’s Energy Backbone

Usama Qureshi has built a career on turnarounds. At K-Electric, as Chief Marketing Officer and Chief of Staff, he was part of the leadership team behind the utility's turnaround, a story later taught at Harvard Business School and the Harvard Kennedy School. As Managing Director and CEO of Hamdard Laboratories Pakistan, he led the modernization of a Pakistani household name. He began his career at Pakistan State Oil, on the team that revived its fuel cards business.

Since joining Cnergyico in 2021, becoming Vice Chairman in 2022, he has brought the same instinct to a business operating at national scale. He shapes long-term strategy, strengthens governance and makes the Company's case to government, regulators and international partners. He also sits on the boards of the Company's subsidiaries. Twenty-five years across energy, FMCG, fintech and telecommunications give him an unusually wide lens. He is Chief Executive Officer of Amps & Volts (formerly Oasis Energy), an electrical switchgear and power solutions manufacturer. He is also Strategic Advisor to Kuickpay, a payments aggregation platform.

Beyond the boardroom, he is one of the sector's most visible voices, writing and speaking on Pakistan's energy future and economic policy. He serves on the Global Advisory Council of the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC), which Cnergyico has joined as a Strategic Partner. He also champions Pakistan's trade and exports through the FPCCI and national business councils. He holds an MBA.

Followings are excerpts from an exclusive interview with Pakistan & Gulf Economist:

PAGE: Please tell us briefly about Cnergyico, from an oil refinery to an important component of Pakistan’s emerging energy infrastructure.

Usama Qureshi: Cnergyico’s journey has been one of continuous growth, integration and investment in Pakistan’s energy infrastructure. From our beginnings as a refining business, we have evolved into a vertically integrated energy company with operations spanning refining, petroleum marketing, storage, logistics and distribution.

Today, Cnergyico operates Pakistan’s largest oil refining complex by installed capacity, with a combined capacity of 156,000 barrels per day. Our infrastructure also includes the country’s first and only Single Buoy Mooring (SBM), substantial crude oil storage capacity and a nationwide network of more than 480 retail outlets under the byco brand.

This integrated model allows us to participate across the petroleum value chain, from importing crude oil and refining it into finished products to storing, distributing and marketing those products. As Pakistan’s energy requirements evolve, our objective is to strengthen energy security, diversify crude supply sources, improve product quality and progressively modernize our refining infrastructure.

PAGE: The company enjoys a few distinctions, including the largest refining capacity of 156,000 barrels per day. What has been the average capacity utilization and what is being done to improve it?

Qureshi: Our installed refining capacity is 156,000 barrels per day. Average utilization has been around 35%, or about 55,000 barrels per day. However, this must be viewed mainly in the context of local market demand, refining margins and the ability of the domestic market to absorb locally refined products. During the recent crisis, when imports were constrained and local demand was strong, Cnergyico increased throughput to more than 80,000 barrels per day.

The refinery is therefore not constrained by its technical nameplate capacity. Utilization is primarily driven by prevailing market and economic conditions. Our approach is to operate at levels that provide an optimal product yield and economic return rather than simply maximizing throughput irrespective of market conditions.

Going forward, we are working on several fronts to raise utilization on a sustainable basis: diversifying crude supply, securing better commercial terms, developing product exports through a second SBM and completing the refinery modernization program. Improved domestic demand and a more conducive refining environment will support this further.

PAGE: The company processes crude from different regions and has recently imported West African and American crude. How has the experience been?

Qureshi: One of Cnergyico’s key strengths is the flexibility of its refining configuration and associated infrastructure, which enables us to evaluate and process crude oil from diverse geographical sources.

Our processing of West African crudes demonstrated the refinery’s ability to handle crudes of different characteristics and complexity. Similarly, sourcing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from the United States has broadened Pakistan’s crude supply options beyond its traditional dependence on Middle Eastern suppliers. Our crude procurement decisions are commercial and

technical in nature. We assess each crude on landed cost, freight, product yields, refinery compatibility, financing terms, reliability of supply and prevailing market conditions. The ability to source from multiple regions gives us greater flexibility and contributes to Pakistan’s broader objective of energy security.

The experience has reinforced our view that diversification is strategically valuable. Rather than depending on a limited number of supply sources, we can evaluate opportunities across the international market and select crude grades that offer the best combination of operational compatibility, economics and supply security. This flexibility has served both the refinery and the country well during periods of supply disruption.

PAGE: Another unique feature is the Single Buoy Mooring (SBM) facility. How has this contributed to achieving higher synergy?

Qureshi: The SBM is one of Cnergyico’s most important strategic assets and provides a significant logistical advantage. It enables crude oil and petroleum products to be received offshore and transferred through dedicated pipelines directly to our storage and refining facilities.

The SBM can receive fully laden Suezmax and Aframax vessels, which cannot berth fully laden at Karachi Port or Port Qasim. It is connected to our onshore facilities through approximately 11.5 kilometres of subsea and 3.3 kilometres of onshore pipeline. This creates several synergies. It reduces dependence on conventional port infrastructure, enables the handling of larger crude cargoes, supports economies of scale, lowers logistics complexity and connects crude imports directly with our storage and refining complex.

The SBM was particularly useful in receiving our WTI and West African crude cargoes. On these longer voyages, the ability to bring in larger cargoes helps lower the freight cost per barrel. From a national perspective, this infrastructure also contributes to energy security and reduces pressure on conventional port facilities.

PAGE: Cnergyico owns and operates retail outlets and also supplies products to other OMCs. How does this help in achieving higher standards of finished products?

Qureshi: Our vertically integrated model provides an important advantage because we remain connected with the product throughout much of the value chain, from crude selection and refining to storage and ultimately the retail customer.

Cnergyico operates a nationwide network of more than 480 Byco outlets while also supplying petroleum products to other oil marketing companies and organizations. This gives us direct exposure to market requirements and customer expectations.

Quality control is maintained through established specifications and testing procedures at the refinery and across the supply chain. Having refining and marketing within the same business also provides valuable feedback on product performance, demand patterns and changing customer requirements. As we proceed with refinery modernization, this integration will become even more valuable. Our objective is to produce cleaner, higher-value fuels meeting Euro-V specifications while ensuring that quality is maintained throughout storage, transportation and delivery.

PAGE: Some analysts believe Cnergyico’s location is a bottleneck because transportation by bowsers is expensive and problematic during the monsoon season. How has the experience been?

Qureshi: Every industrial location presents a combination of logistical advantages and challenges. Our location at Hub provides a major strategic advantage because of its proximity to the coast and direct integration with our SBM, storage infrastructure and refining complex.

We recognize that inland movement of finished products by road tankers involves transportation costs and can face temporary disruption during extreme weather or poor road conditions. These challenges are not unique to Cnergyico and form part of the broader logistics environment in Pakistan. Our integrated storage and distribution network, inventory planning and supply chain management help mitigate these risks. Importantly, any assessment of our location must also take into account the advantages of direct offshore crude handling through the SBM, access to large cargoes and extensive on-site storage.

We continue to optimize our logistics footprint so that products reach different markets efficiently and reliably while maintaining the required safety and product quality standards.

PAGE: How does the proposed modernization program help in improving the quality of products?

The refinery modernization program is fundamental to Cnergyico’s long-term strategy. We have initiated work on a refinery upgrade project involving an investment of more than US$1 billion.

In September we signed the upgrade agreement with the Government under the refining policy. The project is designed to materially change our product slate. It will increase production of higher-value products, particularly High-Speed Diesel and Motor Gasoline, while significantly reducing production of Furnace Oil. Most importantly from a product quality perspective, the upgraded configuration will enable our products to meet Euro-V specifications, which means cleaner fuels with substantially improved environmental characteristics.

The upgrade will deliver benefits on several fronts: better product quality, a higher proportion of valuable transportation fuels, lower furnace oil output, improved refinery economics and a reduced environmental footprint. It also aligns Cnergyico with Pakistan’s broader objective of modernizing its refining sector and reducing dependence on imported finished products.

We are also planning a second SBM for product exports. This will improve refinery utilization, reduce our dependence on the local market alone and generate much-needed foreign exchange for the country.

PAGE: How did Cnergyico respond to the recent disruption in Gulf oil supplies and what role did it play in keeping the country supplied?

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year was one of the most serious energy security tests Pakistan has faced. Before the conflict, around 90 percent of the country’s oil and LNG imports passed through Hormuz. When imported finished products became difficult to secure, domestic refining became the country’s first line of supply. Cnergyico responded on three fronts.

First, we raised refinery throughput to more than 80,000 barrels per day to meet local demand at a time when imported products were scarce.

Second, because our crude sourcing was already diversified, we continued processing crude from outside the Gulf, including WTI from the United States and grades from West Africa. Over nine months we imported around 8.1 million barrels of US crude.

Third, our SBM allowed these large cargoes to be received directly at Hub without adding to congestion at Karachi’s ports, while our storage capacity and Byco network kept products moving to customers across the country.

The crisis showed in practical terms why domestic refining capacity, diverse crude sources and independent offshore import infrastructure matter for national energy security. It has also strengthened the case for our refinery upgrade and a second SBM, which will add further resilience.

PAGE: Cnergyico has returned to profitability after a difficult period. What drove this turnaround?

Qureshi: The last few years were challenging for the entire refining sector. High finance costs, limited working capital, weak local demand and competition from smuggled products all weighed on refinery economics. The company recorded a loss in FY2025.

FY2026 marked a clear turnaround. For the year ended June 30, 2026, Cnergyico reported a profit after tax of PKR10.75 billion compared with a loss of PKR2.90 billion the previous year. Sales rose to PKR410.2 billion from PKR296.7 billion and earnings per share were PKR1.96 against a loss per share of PKR0.53.

Several factors contributed. We diversified our crude sourcing and became the first refinery in Pakistan to process US crude, which improved product yields and operational flexibility.

We operated with tighter cost discipline and expanded product exports, earning foreign exchange for the country. Stronger refining margins during the crisis helped, but the groundwork for the recovery had been laid well before it.

Our focus now is to make this recovery sustainable through the upgrade program, higher utilization and a stronger export business.

PAGE: Cnergyico’s refinery is located away from the city in Balochistan. How does the company engage with the communities around it?

Qureshi: For us, CSR is not a set of one-off events. Our refinery has been part of this community for more than three decades and its progress is tied to ours. Our approach rests on three principles. We focus on the five villages closest to our operations. We work through established partners who bring expertise and accountability. We sustain our programs year after year so that communities can rely on them.

Education, with a focus on women:

Through our partnership with The Citizens Foundation (TCF), we support government primary schools in the area and provide transport so that children can reach school safely. We sponsor female teachers at a girl’s school in Gaddani and support young women from Mouza Kund training as midwives. Investing in women teachers and midwives builds skills that stay within the community.

Health and clean water:

Access to healthcare is limited in the area, so we run an ambulance service that connects the surrounding villages to hospitals in Hub and Karachi. We have also provided equipment to LRBT’s Secondary Eye Hospital in Quetta, extending our support for eye care across the province.

Clean drinking water is scarce in this part of coastal Balochistan. Our seven solar-powered reverse osmosis (RO) plants supply safe drinking water to five villages using renewable energy.

Livelihoods and dignity:

With Akhuwat, we support interest-free microfinance that helps families in Hub build their livelihoods. With Bioniks Welfare Organization, we provide prosthetic limbs to people who could not otherwise afford them, helping them return to work and daily life.

The refinery itself supports more than 3,000 direct and indirect jobs in the area, which remains our largest contribution to the local economy.

Environment:

Responsible operations are the foundation of our environmental commitment. A coral reef has developed along our subsea pipeline between the SBM and the refinery, a rare marine habitat in Pakistani waters that we continue to support. We have also planted trees around our refining complex.

Our biggest environmental contribution, however, will come from the refinery upgrade, which will produce Euro-V fuels with substantially lower sulphur content.

As the upgrade progresses, our footprint in the region will grow through more jobs, local procurement and cleaner fuels. We intend our community programs to grow alongside it.

Malaysia to be hub for resolving international commercial and maritime disputes

Malaysia’s strategic location along two major global shipping lanes is bolstering its bid to become a regional hub for resolving international commercial and maritime disputes, says Chief Justice Tun Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh.

He noted that positioning between the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea gives the nation a unique advantage, where swift adjudication and specialized expertise are essential for time-sensitive cases.

He said that while Malaysia has long operated a specialized Admiralty Court, the creation of the International Commercial and Admiralty Division (ICAD) unifies admiralty and international commercial litigation under one bench.

Established at the High Court on March 2 this year, ICAD is set to boost investor confidence in Kuala Lumpur as a premier business and dispute resolution center.

Wan Ahmad Farid said delays of even a few days in urgent admiralty cases could have significant commercial consequences, particularly when disputes involved vessels, cargo and parties across several jurisdictions.

“Applications for the arrest or release of vessels, the provision of security and other urgent matters require prompt attention, and a delay of even a few days can have significant commercial consequences,” he said in his keynote address at the inaugural ICAD Conference 2026 at the Asian International Arbitration Centre (AIAC).

Wan Ahmad Farid said maritime disputes were inherently international, often involving vessels registered in one country, owned by companies in another, financed by banks in a third and carrying cargo belonging to parties across several jurisdictions.

“A vessel may be registered in one jurisdiction, corporate-owned in a second, bank-financed in a third, chartered in a fourth, and carrying cargo belonging to entities across several more,” he said.

“The trade that passes through generates disputes over cargo, charter parties, finance, insurance, energy and infrastructure.”

Wan Ahmad Farid said ICAD aims to turn Malaysia’s geographical position into a jurisdictional advantage, ensuring disputes are adjudicated close to trade activity by judges versed in complex maritime and commercial law.

He said a premier dispute resolution forum was built on trust, which had to be earned over time, Bernama reported.

“It is earned when foreign investors know that if they bring a dispute to Malaysia, they will receive justice that is blind to nationality, deeply sophisticated in commercial logic and fiercely independent.

“Roads and ports carry goods. Certainty and trust carry confidence, and confidence carries capital. Let us build this infrastructure deliberately, protect it carefully, and offer it to the world with integrity,” he added.

Mehrdad Akhlaqi Ketabchi New Defence Minister of Iran

According to Reuters, Iran's parliament approved Mehrdad Akhlaqi Ketabchi as defence minister on Sunday, ending months of interim leadership at the ​ministry and placing a former defence sector veteran in ‌charge of the country's defence production and procurement apparatus.

Akhlaqi replaces Majid Ebn al-Reza, who took over in an interim capacity after then Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh ​was killed by US-Israeli strikes in February.Akhlaqi has spent decades ​in Iran's defence industry and has held senior roles ⁠in its aerospace and missile sectors. He is subject to US ​and EU sanctions over his work in Iran's defence sector.

In a program ​presented to lawmakers, Akhlaqi pledged to rebuild the country's military-industrial infrastructure, accelerate the development of defence technologies and expand cooperation with private-sector companies.

"If the American enemy ​makes another miscalculation, the response of the valiant Iranian people and ​the fighters of Islam will be surprising and extensive," he said, adding that ‌Tehran ⁠had taken necessary measures to counter the potential use by the US of its "mother of all bombs" against Iran.

CNN reported this week that the US has developed strike plans that could include using the GBU-43/B ​Massive Ordnance Air ​Blast Bomb, also ⁠known as the "mother of all bombs", against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites if President Donald Trump ​orders renewed combat operations.

The weapon is the largest non-nuclear ​bomb ⁠in the US arsenal.

"The US President should focus on ensuring his forces are withdrawn safely from our region. If he drops a single bomb, ⁠he ​will have to see how many of ​his troops end up being carried out of the region in a horizontal position," ​Akhlaqi said.

Egypt and Xiamen C&D to develop Alexandria dry bulk terminal

Egypt’s Ministry of Transport and the Alexandria Port Authority have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China’s Xiamen C&D to develop a specialized dry bulk terminal at Al-Max Port.

The project forms a key part of the broader Greater Alexandria Port development plan and underpins the Sokhna-Alexandria industrial logistics corridor across Egypt.

According to the cooperation plan, two new specialized dry bulk berths will be constructed in the project, alongside supporting facilities including standardized cargo yards, storage silos, modern handling and transshipment systems, and comprehensive logistics facilities.

Once operational, the terminal will be able to berth three large cargo vessels simultaneously, further enhancing the Alexandria Port Area's capabilities in receiving and unloading large vessels, handling bulk cargo throughput, and conducting cross-border transshipment.

At the same time, the project will strengthen the connection between the port area and Egypt's railway and highway networks, build a multimodal transport system that integrates sea transport, railways and highways.

Lyu Rongdian, CEO of Xiamen C&D, stated that the company highly recognizes the development potential and geographical advantages of Egypt's ports. It will advance the construction of the port project and strive to build it into a representative bulk cargo logistics hub along the Mediterranean coast.

 

The Shifting Paradigm of Pakistan’s Energy Sector

The prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has exposed a structural vulnerability in Pakistan’s energy supply chain: heavy dependence on imported crude oil and petroleum products moving through a strategically sensitive maritime corridor. What initially appeared to be a geopolitical challenge is now compelling Pakistan to rethink the architecture of its energy sector.

The incumbent government is reportedly engaging with oil-producing Arab countries to explore the establishment of crude oil and finished petroleum product storage facilities in Pakistan. If translated into concrete investments, this initiative could mark an important shift from Pakistan’s traditional model of importing petroleum largely on a shipment-to-shipment basis toward a more resilient system built around strategic storage, refining capacity and integrated logistics.

Pakistan has already announced plans to modernize its existing oil refineries. At the same time, proposals are being pursued for the establishment of a new greenfield or brownfield refinery. These initiatives should not be viewed as isolated projects. Together with additional storage capacity, they could trigger a broader transformation of the country’s downstream oil industry.

For decades, Pakistan’s refinery sector has struggled with ageing plants, technological limitations, inadequate investment and an unfavorable product mix. The modernization program provides an opportunity to address these weaknesses. Upgraded refineries could improve their ability to process different grades of crude, enhance yields of higher-value petroleum products and reduce dependence on imported finished products.

A new refinery, meanwhile, could complement rather than compete with existing capacity if planned according to future domestic demand and regional market requirements. The key is to avoid simply adding capacity without addressing efficiency, product quality, logistics and commercial viability. Pakistan needs refineries designed for the energy market of the future, not merely larger versions of yesterday’s facilities.

The proposed storage infrastructure could be equally significant. Pakistan has historically operated with limited strategic petroleum storage compared with the requirements of an economy dependent on imported energy. Adequate stocks of crude oil and finished products would provide greater flexibility during international supply disruptions, shipping constraints or sudden price volatility.

For Arab oil-producing countries, establishing storage facilities in Pakistan could also have commercial and strategic value. Storage closer to South Asian markets can potentially shorten supply chains, improve inventory management and facilitate timely deliveries. Pakistan, because of its geographic position, could emerge as a useful link between Middle Eastern producers and consumers in South Asia.

This development could consequently change the business model of oil marketing companies (OMCs). Instead of relying predominantly on imported finished products and conventional distribution networks, OMCs could increasingly operate within an integrated ecosystem involving local refining, bulk storage, transportation and inventory management. Competition may gradually shift from access to imported products toward efficiency, logistics, supply reliability and customer reach.

The logistics sector would also be affected. Expansion of storage facilities would require investment in ports, pipelines, tank farms, road and rail transportation, safety systems and digital inventory management. Such investment could create a wider energy-services ecosystem and generate opportunities beyond the petroleum sector itself.

However, infrastructure alone will not deliver a paradigm shift. Pakistan must ensure transparent regulations, commercially viable tariffs, efficient ports, reliable pipelines and a predictable taxation regime. Investment decisions extending over decades require policy continuity. Frequent changes in duties, pricing mechanisms and regulatory requirements can discourage precisely the long-term capital that the sector needs.

The government should therefore treat refinery modernization, new refining capacity and strategic storage as components of a single downstream energy strategy. Coordination among refineries, OMCs, ports, pipeline operators, financial institutions and regulators will be essential.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has demonstrated that energy security cannot depend solely on uninterrupted international shipping. Pakistan needs buffers within its own territory. Strategic storage, diversified supply arrangements, modern refineries and efficient logistics can collectively provide those buffers.

The emerging opportunity is therefore larger than the construction of a few refineries or storage tanks. It is about shifting Pakistan’s energy paradigm—from a predominantly import-dependent distribution model toward an integrated system combining refining, storage, logistics and strategic inventory management.

If implemented with commercial discipline and long-term policy consistency, the present challenge could become a catalyst for transforming Pakistan’s downstream petroleum industry. The objective should not merely be to survive the next disruption, but to build an energy infrastructure capable of absorbing future shocks while supporting industrial growth and national economic security.

Israel's October 27 Elections

Security, Iran and the Palestinian Question

Israel will hold parliamentary elections on October 27, 2026, to elect the 120-member Knesset. The contest will determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retains power or an opposition coalition forms the next government. Beyond leadership, voters face questions about national security, the economy, judicial governance and Israel’s international standing after years of regional conflict.

Political parties and priorities

The principal contenders include Netanyahu’s Likud and its right-wing and religious allies, notably Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism. The opposition includes Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. Arab-led Ra’am and the Joint List are also contesting seats.

Three major campaign priorities are security, governance and economic pressures. Netanyahu’s camp stresses military strength, confronting hostile regional forces and maintaining its security policies.

Opposition leaders promise to repair relations with international partners, curb extremist settler activity and improve governance. Economic concerns, the cost of living and the burden of military service also feature prominently. However, not every party has published a comprehensive election manifesto.

Iran: No easy policy shift

Iran remains a central security concern. Netanyahu has adopted a confrontational approach towards Tehran’s nuclear and military capabilities, while warning of retaliation against attacks by Iran and its regional allies. Opposition leaders also broadly support Israel’s military actions against Iran, although they criticize aspects of Netanyahu’s leadership and strategy. A change of government would therefore be unlikely to produce a fundamental reversal of Israel’s security posture.

Two states and Gaza’s reconstruction

The prospects for a two-state solution remain poor. Netanyahu and most major Zionist opposition leaders oppose Palestinian statehood or do not priorities it. The Democrats have left the possibility open as a longer-term objective, while Arab-led parties advocate Palestinian rights and self-determination.

Gaza’s reconstruction presents another challenge. Netanyahu’s government insists that Hamas must be disarmed and Israeli security concerns addressed. Far-right allies favour continued Israeli control and some advocate Palestinian emigration. Opposition leaders have signalled greater cooperation with international partners and the Palestinian Authority, but have not offered a unified plan guaranteeing Palestinian self-government.

The election may change Israel’s leadership and diplomatic tone, but a major shift on Iran, Palestinian statehood or Gaza’s future remains uncertain. Coalition arithmetic will determine how far campaign promises translate into policy.