Even Trump Is Subservient to the Syndicate

The US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has entered its seventh month without a decisive outcome or a credible exit strategy. This raises an uncomfortable question: is the war being fought purely for strategic objectives—or are powerful vested interests benefiting from perpetual uncertainty?

I call these interests “The Syndicate”—an informal alignment of the military-industrial complex, oil and gas companies, Wall Street participants and media houses. Their interests may differ, but uncertainty serves them all. Prolonged conflict means more weapons orders, volatile energy prices, speculative opportunities and a continuous supply of headlines.

In this equation, President Donald Trump increasingly appears less like the sole architect of American policy and more like an “Operator”—a political leader who converts confrontation into leverage while powerful economic interests benefit from its consequences.

The circumstances surrounding the war are particularly revealing. Washington launched military action without securing the full backing of its European allies. For months, US military installations across the Gulf faced Iranian retaliation, while Israel received extensive American military and diplomatic protection. Yet the conflict continued, with no clear political settlement in sight.

More alarming is speculation that Washington could eventually consider using nuclear weapons if conventional military options become exhausted. Even without accepting such speculation as fact, its emergence illustrates how dangerously far the escalation has travelled.

America’s political system is formally accountable to voters, but money exercises enormous influence over elections and policymaking. Corporations and wealthy individuals spend billions seeking access and influence, raising an uncomfortable question - does political power ultimately serve voters—or those capable of financing it?

Trump continues to command strong support among America’s wealthiest constituencies. If that political-economic alliance remains intact, attempts to remove him may continue to falter, while his political future could remain far stronger than public sentiment suggests.

Perhaps the real question is not who controls Trump, but who benefits from endless uncertainty?

The answer may explain why, even in the world’s most powerful democracy, US president Trump himself could be subservient to the Syndicate.

Nepal Floods: A Natural Disaster with a Human Fingerprint

Nature does not negotiate with governments. It does not respect borders or development targets.

The horrifying images of floods devastating Nepal’s border region and Tibet are not merely scenes of a natural calamity. These are a warning that when human intervention collides with nature’s power, the consequences can be catastrophic.

The immediate question is not simply what happened, but whether human actions helped turn a natural disaster into a far greater catastrophe.

Brahma Chellaney argues that the Himalayan floods were triggered by nature but intensified by human intervention. Chinese construction has narrowed river corridors, generated dangerous debris and created bottlenecks that may have produced secondary flood surges. If development projects alter natural waterways and fragile mountain landscapes without adequate environmental safeguards, they can magnify the destructive power of extreme weather.

This warning is particularly relevant as Southeast Asia confronts another looming threat: a major El Niño event. Florian Krampe and Mely Caballero-Anthony warn that it could bring drought, wildfires, food shortages and widespread supply-chain disruption.

The irony is that governments are not entirely unprepared. ASEAN already has forecasting mechanisms and disaster-financing instruments. Yet these remain inadequately funded and poorly coordinated. The problem, therefore, is not the absence of knowledge or tools, but the lack of political will and financial commitment to deploy them effectively.

The consequences could extend far beyond disaster zones. Drought can devastate agricultural production, food shortages can fuel inflation and social tensions, wildfires can disrupt economic activity, and damaged infrastructure can cripple supply chains across national borders.

The Himalayan floods also expose a dangerous contradiction in the pursuit of development. Roads, dams, hydropower projects and expanding settlements may deliver economic benefits, but when these disregard rivers, forests and fragile ecosystems, these can magnify the risks they are intended to overcome.

The Nepal floods should therefore be treated as a wake-up call. Natural disasters may be unavoidable, but their devastation is not always inevitable. When environmental safeguards are sacrificed for development, nature can leave a human fingerprint on a natural disaster.

US-Israel war on Iran: No End in Sight

The US-Israel war on Iran, launched on February 28, 2026, has completed six months—far longer than President Donald Trump’s initial claim that the conflict would be over within weeks. More troublingly, there is still no credible indication that the war is nearing an end.

A Washington Post report marking the six-month anniversary noted that Trump’s ability to achieve a decisive victory has declined sharply. Iran has demonstrated that it can withstand sustained bombardment while imposing significant costs on the world’s most powerful military through relatively inexpensive mines and drones.

Iran’s most potent weapon, however, has been its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy artery. Since the war began, oil and gas prices have surged, reportedly costing US consumers an estimated US$71.5 billion more at the pump than they otherwise would have paid.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the Strait has been reopened. Yet the Post, citing Kpler, a commodities and shipping tracker, reported that more than 100 ships crossed the Strait daily before the war, compared with just five on one day this week. The stark difference between presidential claims and reality underscores the difficulty Washington faces in restoring normal shipping.

The Associated Press has highlighted another significant shift: Washington is increasingly relying on sanctions rather than military force to pressure Tehran. The move reportedly reflects concerns over dwindling US munitions and the potential impact of a prolonged conflict on American military readiness elsewhere.

Trump’s rhetoric has also changed. The president who once promised a quick victory now says he is “not in a hurry” to end the campaign.

Former US Defense Intelligence Agency officer Harrison Mann has argued that Trump has “lost the Iran War in every way possible,” citing failures to force regime change, ignite a Kurdish uprising and restore normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Six months of war have produced an outcome dramatically different from Washington’s expectations. Iran has survived the assault and strengthened its strategic leverage, while the US faces mounting economic, military and diplomatic costs.

With neither side appearing ready to concede and no clear political settlement in sight, the most sobering conclusion is simple, “The Iran war has entered its seventh month with no end in sight.”

PSX Benchmark Index Posts Paltry 0.3%WoW Gain

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained range bound during the week ended on August 28, 2026.The benchmark Index posted 0.3%WoW gain to close at 177,697 points. Market activity improved, with the average daily traded volume rising by 24.7%WoW to 1.3 billion shares, as compared to 1.1 billion in the previous week.

Moody’s one-notch upgrade of Pakistan’s sovereign rating to B3 due to improvements in governance, provided a modest boost to investors’ sentiment.

The US-Iran situation remained under control, keeping oil prices below US$90/ bbl on Friday’s close, as Iran continued separate discussions with Oman and Qatar aimed at facilitating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose modestly to US$17.1 billion as of August 21, 2026.

Central bank transferred PKR1.9 trillion in profits to the Federal Government, PKR496 billion higher than the budgeted transfer.

Banking sector deposits rose by 14% YoY to PkR39.1 trillion as of end July 2026.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Saudi team and Prime Minister discuss investment in agriculture, real estate, energy and IT, 2) new SPV established for the privatization of three Discos, 3) Refineries to sign upgrade deals within 10 days, 4) Pakistan received US$763 million loans, grants in July this year, and 5) Government. introduces a performance based rebate on incremental exports.

Top performing sectors were: Textile Composite, FMCG, and Power, while sectors that lagged the most were: OMCs, Inv. Cos., and Technology.

Major net buying was recorded by Mutual Funds (US$6.2 million) and Companies with (US$4.3 million). Major net sellers were Foreigners with US$10.6 million.

Top performing scrips were: AICL, THALL, KTML, POWER, and ABOT, while laggards included: PGLC, SRVI, TRG, NBP, and HMB.

AKD Securities expects market to improve on strengthening economic indicators amid easing geopolitical tensions. A potential US-Iran deal could moderate international oil prices. Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

United States: A Morally and Financially Bankrupt Superpower

The United States may claim to be the world's most powerful military and economic power. Yet its confrontation with Iran raises a fundamental question, what happens when a superpower possessing overwhelming military strength fails to convert that strength into sustainable political outcomes?

Iran provides a compelling test, for nearly half a century, the country has endured American sanctions, diplomatic isolation, covert operations and successive campaigns of economic pressure. Washington's "maximum pressure" policy inflicted severe economic pain, but failed to bring Iran to its knees or force the political transformation sought by successive US administrations.

The February 28, 2026 US-Israeli attack represented a dramatic escalation. The killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian officials demonstrated America's extraordinary military reach. But eliminating a leader is not the same as defeating a nation. Iran's state structure survived, its political system remained functional and regime change did not materialize.

Indeed, the war may have produced the opposite of its intended political effect. External aggression can suppress internal differences and strengthen national cohesion. While it would be excessive to claim that every Iranian rallied behind the government, the attack appears to have reinforced the perception that Iran's sovereignty was under direct threat. The policy intended to weaken Iran, has strengthened Iranian nationalism and resistance.

This raises a crucial question, if military pressure has failed to deliver political submission, what explains its persistence?

Energy is an important part of the answer. Restricting Iranian oil exports, limiting China's access to Iranian crude and preserving America's influence over global energy markets have clear strategic and economic implications. Yet Washington faces a fundamental contradiction: it can pressure Iran, but confronting China, the principal destination for Iranian oil, would risk transforming the Iranian conflict into a much broader geopolitical confrontation.

The financial dimension is even more troubling. America's national debt has crossed US$40 trillion, while interest payments are becoming an increasingly heavy burden on the federal budget.

The United States may not be bankrupt in the conventional sense because it issues the world's principal reserve currency and borrows in its own currency. The combination of enormous debt, rising interest costs and an expansive global military footprint raises serious questions about the sustainability of American power.

The moral contradiction is equally profound. America has long presented itself as a defender of democracy, human rights, sovereignty and a rules-based international order. Yet prolonged sanctions, military intervention and attempts to engineer political change abroad inevitably raise questions about the consistency between America's proclaimed values and its actions.

The real issue is therefore not whether the United States possesses sufficient power to destroy its adversaries. It plainly does. The question is whether it can translate that power into durable political success without exhausting its financial resources and moral authority.

Iran has survived nearly five decades of sanctions, maximum pressure and military intervention. America, meanwhile, carries more than US$40 trillion in debt while sustaining an increasingly costly global strategic posture.

A country that repeatedly fails to achieve its political objectives through overwhelming force, accumulates extraordinary financial obligations and compromises the moral principles it claims to defend is confronting more than strategic overstretch.

The United States may still possess unparalleled military power and the world's dominant currency, but the widening gap between its ambitions, achievements, finances and proclaimed values points toward an uncomfortable conclusion: America is becoming a morally and financially bankrupt superpower.

 

Ships stranded in Strait of Hormuz could trigger biological invasions

More than 1,500 large commercial vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz following its closure amid tensions between the US and Iran could trigger a global wave of biological invasions, researchers have warned.

A study published in the journal "Biological Invasions" says marine organisms accumulating on ship hulls during extended stationary periods may be transported to ports worldwide once traffic resumes, potentially creating a "super-spreader" effect for invasive species.

The study found that biofouling, consisting of marine microorganisms, algae, and invertebrates, can rapidly develop on the hulls of ships that remain stationary for extended periods.

According to the study, more than 1,500 large commercial vessels have becomes stranded following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026.

The prolonged presence of these ships in the region allows local organisms to colonize their hulls, while also bringing together communities of organisms from different parts of the world on the same vessels.

Professor Mario Tamburri of the University of Maryland, the study's lead author, described the current situation as a "worst-case scenario" compared to previous shipping disruptions.

The risk is amplified by several converging factors: the unprecedented number and size of stranded vessels, combined with the fact that the closure coincides with spring and summer—peak seasons for marine organism growth and reproduction.

Organisms native to the Gulf, already adapted to extreme temperatures and high salinity, may prove particularly resilient when introduced to new environments.

Tamburri said the length of time a vessel remains stationary is critical in determining the amount and diversity of biofouling.

“The longer they remain stationary during periods of productive growth and reproduction, the more extensive and diverse the biofouling on the ships becomes,” he said.

The study stresses that vessels in the Gulf have remained stationary far longer than normal port waiting periods, creating favorable conditions for invasive species to reproduce on their hulls and be transported to other regions.

Tamburri said it is difficult to predict with certainty which species will be spread by ships, as the risk depends on numerous variables involving both the species and the environmental conditions to which they are transported.

The study also notes that species transported through biofouling can affect not only ecosystems but also economic activities, while certain parasites and pathogens may threaten commercially important species.

The study emphasizes that the first ports visited by ships departing the Strait of Hormuz are particularly important for the establishment of invasive species.

The researchers recommend cleaning the biofouling from ships’ hulls before they leave the Gulf as the ideal solution.

However, they note that applying this measure to every vessel would be difficult because the region has limited capacity for such operations and ships may need to leave quickly for security, logistical, and operational reasons.

The study identifies specific ports facing elevated invasion risks due to short voyage times and similar environmental conditions. Jeddah, Mumbai, Colombo, Singapore, Alexandria, Piraeus, Algeciras, and Rotterdam are highlighted as particularly vulnerable first destinations.

The Asian green mussel, native to the Gulf, serves as a cautionary example—having already established itself in Florida, the Caribbean, Australia, and South America, where it competes with native species and clogs industrial infrastructure.

Researchers warn that the international maritime community remains ill-prepared for this biosecurity threat. While regulations are being developed through the International Maritime Organization (IMO), they will take years to finalize.

The study recommends implementing early-warning and rapid-response systems at first ports of call, alongside coordinated international efforts bridging biological invasion science, maritime logistics, and regulation.

 

PSX index remains under pressure

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure during the week ended on August 21, 2026. The benchmark Index closed at 177,167. Total Market capitalization also contracted to US$71.6 billion from US$72.5 billion last week.

The average daily trading volume edged up marginally by 0.3%WoW to 1,053.4 million shares, as compared to 1,050.5 million shares in the previous week.

The dominant driver remained the unresolved US-Iran conflict, now approaching six months since first strikes began on February 28.

Brent crude posted its second consecutive weekly gain, up over 6%WoW to US$94.2/ bbl, with neither side making any effort to restart talks after the 60-day ceasefire expired.

The current account deficit narrowed to US$328 million in July 2026, down 38%YoY, aided by rebound in goods exports and strong remittance flows.

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised PKR518 billion through T-Bills, with yields ranging between 11.47%-11.99% across all tenors.

On the sectoral front, Urea offtakes declined 5%YoY and DAP 10%YoY in July 2026, while IT exports recorded 18%YoY increase to US$417 million.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan scrambles to secure Qatar LNG cargo by August, 25 as spot prices surged, 2) LSM index rose 5%YoY in FY26, 3) Pakistan pushes China B2B deals from MoUs to investments & exports, 4) Circular debt jumps by PKR364 billion in FY26, and 5) Pakistan, Norway agree to enhance ties in various sectors.

Top performing sectors were: Refinery, OMC, and E&P, while Banks, Power, and Textile Composite were the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Banks and Mutual Funds with US$14.5 million and US$10.6 million, respectively. Major buyers were Individuals with US$17.5 million.

Top performing scrips were: PGLC, ATRL, PSO, INIL, and CNERGY, while laggards included THALL, CHCC, TGL, PABC, and PAEL.

AKD Securities expects the market to improve on strengthening economic indicators amid easing geopolitical tensions, along with favorable financial results for June 2026.

Additionally, a potential US-Iran deal could moderate international oil prices towards pre-conflict levels.

Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

The brokerage house forecasts the Index to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.