War May Pause Cracks Already Visible

The announcement of a ceasefire in the US–Israel war on Iran has been welcomed across the globe with a mix of relief and restraint. For now, the guns have fallen silent, markets have steadied, and fears of a wider regional conflagration have receded. But beneath the diplomatic optimism lies a harder truth - this is less a peace agreement and more a calculated pause.

In the United States, President Donald Trump has framed the ceasefire as a strategic success—asserting that American objectives were achieved without plunging into a prolonged war. Washington’s language also betrays caution, emphasizing that the truce is merely a window for negotiations, not an endgame.

For Iran, the ceasefire is being projected not as compromise but as resistance. Tehran’s messaging suggests a tactical pause while retaining strategic leverage—an indication that it sees the confrontation as far from over. Israel has signaled that the ceasefire does not necessarily extend to all fronts, particularly in Lebanon, underscoring the fragmented nature of the truce.

China and Russia have called for restraint and dialogue, though both remain critical of the escalation that preceded the ceasefire. Their position reflects a broader concern - unilateral military actions risk institutionalizing instability in an already volatile region.

Across Europe, the response has been two-tiered. Key states such as the Britain, France, and Germany have welcomed the ceasefire as a “step back from the brink.” At the same time, the European Union has formally urged all parties to honor the truce and convert it into a durable settlement, warning that only sustained diplomacy can prevent renewed escalation.

In the Gulf, reactions from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar reflect a different urgency. For these states, the ceasefire is not just about peace but about economic survival—protecting energy flows and regional stability.

Turkey has welcomed the ceasefire while warning against violations, positioning itself once again as a potential mediator in a fractured diplomatic landscape.

Pakistan has been credited with quietly facilitating the truce, underscoring its re-emerging diplomatic relevance.

India, for its part, has maintained a cautious stance—calling for restraint while carefully safeguarding its strategic interests.

Despite the near-universal welcome, the ceasefire remains fragile. Critical fault lines persist - competing narratives between Washington and Tehran, Israel’s selective interpretation of the truce, and unresolved proxy conflicts across the region. The continuation of hostilities beyond the core framework highlights a deeper reality—this agreement has paused escalation without resolving its causes.

What the world is witnessing is not the end of a conflict but the interruption of one. The relief is real—but the skepticism runs deeper.

The coming days will determine whether this ceasefire becomes a bridge to diplomacy or merely a prelude to the next round of confrontation. For now, the world watches—cautiously, and without illusion.

Iran to coordinate Strait of Hormuz transits under ceasefire

According to Seatrade Maritimes News, two-week ceasefire has been agreed between the United States and Iran in a conflict that has all but paralyzed one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.

The ceasefire was agreed with mediation by Pakistan just 10 minutes before a deadline by US President Trump, after which the US was attack Iran’s bridges and energy infrastructure if Iran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, "With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, effective immediately."

Ahead of the announcement that the ceasefire had been agreed Trump posted on Truth Social, said that he had agreed to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran, “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz”.

However, a statement from Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Seyed Abbas Araghchi framed the re-opening of the Strait somewhat differently with Iran coordinating and controlling transits of the key waterway.

“For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration to technical limitations.”

The statement by the Iranian Foreign Minister was reposted on Trump’s Truth Social feed.

Associated Press reported, quoting an undisclosed regional official, that ceasefire plan allows the littoral states of Iran and Oman to charge a fee for transit of the Strait of Hormuz. In recent weeks Iran has been reportedly charged US$2 million in either Chinese Yuan or crypto currency for approved transits of the waterway.

In a later post on the Truth Social Trump said, "The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz." No details of given as to what this help might entail.

One of the points of Iran’s 10 point-proposal as a basis for negotiations is “the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz”, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated. Talks between the two sides are scheduled to start in Islamabad on Friday. 

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran since the conflict started on 28 February created a global energy crisis with around 20% of the world’s crude oil and LNG exported from the Arabian Gulf via the Strait.

The oil price dropped sharply on news of the ceasefire dropping below US$100 per barrel. WTI Crude is trading at US$97.36 down 13.8% and Brent Crude is US$95.36 down 12.73%.

Despite the declaration of the ceasefire strikes are reported to be continuing in Iran and Israel as well as regional countries including Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Assuming the ceasefire hold how much shipping traffic will move through the Strait of Hormuz given the fragile security situation.

Certainly, owners will be keen to move an estimated 1,000 international trading ships with some 20,000 crew stranded in the Gulf since the start of the war on 28 February out of the region.

However, westbound transits of the Strait to load cargoes risk a restarting of the conflict and that these vessels would become trapped in the region in the face of renewed hostilities.

 

Apathy of Muslims at Its Peak

The Holy Quran recounts an incident in which a group of people hamstrung a she-camel, an act that ultimately brought complete destruction upon their settlement.

Today, Muslim countries appear largely unmoved by the US–Israel war imposed on Iran. Now, President Donald Trump has declared that Iran will be taken “back to the Stone Age” if it does not agree to a ceasefire on US terms.

In the past, we have witnessed the devastation of Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Lebanon—largely enabled by the apathy of the Muslim world. With little to no resistance, these nations were left vulnerable to destruction. There seems to persist a misplaced belief that such turmoil will engulf others, but spare one’s own country.

Israel, with the backing of the United States, continues to pursue the idea of a “Greater Israel.” Yet, despite decades of sustained pressure, neither Israel nor the United States has succeeded in bringing Iran to its knees.

It is a stark reality that no Arab monarchy would be able to withstand a combined US–Israel assault even for a few hours.

Let it be said plainly: if Iran is destroyed, the entire Arabian Peninsula could be exposed to occupation, paving the way for the realization of the “Greater Israel” ambition.

Trump’s Iran Threat: A Line Senate Must Not Let Be Crossed

The latest threat issued by US president Donald Trump—to strike Iran’s power plants, bridges, and essential civilian infrastructure—should alarm not only America’s adversaries, but its own institutions. This is not a display of strength. It is a test of whether the United States still respects the legal and constitutional limits it so often demands of others.

Under international humanitarian law, the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure—especially facilities indispensable to civilian survival—raises grave legal concerns.

Experts such as Adil Haque have warned that such actions could cross into the territory of war crimes if principles of distinction and proportionality are ignored.

The consequences are not abstract. Amnesty International has outlined a grim chain reaction: power outages leading to water shortages, hospitals incapacitated, food systems disrupted, and millions exposed to preventable suffering. This is not collateral damage; it is predictable human cost.

Equally troubling is the rhetoric surrounding these threats—provocative, inflammatory, and dismissive of the humanitarian fallout. Such language risks accelerating a cycle of escalation in an already volatile region.

Analysts including Omar Baddar have cautioned that the immediate victims would be Iranian civilians, but the broader consequences—energy disruption, regional instability, and global economic shock—would not respect borders.

Yet the most consequential silence is emanating from Capitol Hill. The US Constitution vests the power to declare war in Congress, not in unilateral presidential impulses. At moments of potential overreach, the Senate is not a spectator; it is a safeguard. Voices like Chris Murphy and Bernie Sanders have warned of the dangers of unchecked escalation, but warnings alone do not constitute action.

This is a defining institutional test. If the Senate fails to assert its authority now, it risks normalizing a precedent where threats of large-scale attacks on civilian infrastructure pass without scrutiny or restraint. That would not only erode constitutional balance at home but also weaken America’s moral standing abroad.

The choice before the Senate is stark: act to uphold law and accountability, or remain passive as dangerous lines are approached—and potentially crossed. History rarely absolves inaction at such moments.

US Airman Rescue: Narrative Raises More Questions Than Answers

The recent Reuters report describing a dramatic US special forces rescue of a downed airman deep inside Iran reads like a script drawn from Hollywood rather than a transparent account of modern warfare. While such operations are not impossible, the narrative as presented raises serious operational and logical inconsistencies that warrant closer scrutiny.

At the center of the story is the claim by Donald Trump that the mission demonstrates “overwhelming air dominance.” Yet the same report acknowledges “fierce resistance” from Iranian forces, including successful strikes on US helicopters. These two assertions sit uneasily together. Air dominance, by definition, minimizes hostile interference—not invites it.

Equally questionable is the survival narrative. The airman reportedly evaded detection for hours in hostile terrain, despite Iranian authorities urging civilians to assist in locating him. In a high-alert environment, with language and cultural barriers working against him, such prolonged concealment stretches plausibility.

More striking is the operational dimension. The report suggests that dozens of US aircraftس entered Iranian airspace, a transport plane landed, and ground forces operated long enough to execute extraction—all without meaningful disruption. This implies a near-total failure of Iranian radar and surveillance systems, a conclusion that contradicts earlier evidence cited even within the same report, which notes Iran’s continued missile and drone capabilities.

The narrative divergence is equally telling. While US officials emphasize a flawless mission with zero casualties, Iranian sources claim damage to American assets. This duality reflects a familiar wartime pattern: competing versions designed to shape perception rather than convey verifiable reality.

Timing, too, is critical. The rescue emerges at a moment when Washington is weighing escalation, and the potential capture of a US airman could have triggered a politically damaging hostage crisis. Instead, the story reinforces competence, control, and momentum.

In modern conflict, narratives are not incidental—they are instrumental. This episode, rather than offering clarity, underscores how information itself becomes a battlefield where credibility is contested and perception carefully managed.

Trump’s Iran Gamble: No Strategy Only Personal Obsession

Does Donald Trump have a clear endgame in Iran, or is the world witnessing a dangerous experiment shaped by personality rather than policy? The ongoing conflict, now dragging into its second month, offers little evidence of strategic clarity. Instead, it reveals a pattern of impulsive decision-making, where rhetoric outpaces reason and ambition overrides analysis.

Trump’s second presidency appears more volatile than the first. His approach to governance—both domestic and international—remains rooted in instinct, reinforced by loyalists rather than challenged by independent counsel. In the case of Iran, the escalation reflects a gamble rather than a plan. The assumption that targeting Iran’s leadership would trigger regime collapse ignored a fundamental reality: Iran is not a centralized dictatorship. Power is dispersed across multiple institutions, making it resilient to decapitation strategies.

The absence of a defined endgame is striking. Despite repeated claims of victory, there is no credible roadmap for de-escalation. Instead, the conflict risks becoming a prolonged entanglement with unpredictable consequences for regional and global stability. More critically, the legality of such actions remains deeply questionable. Military strikes aimed at sovereign leadership structures stand in violation of international norms and the principles of the United Nations Charter—yet accountability appears increasingly irrelevant in contemporary geopolitics.

What distinguishes Trump’s foreign policy is not merely its aggressiveness, but its personalization. Unlike traditional US interventions—often framed, rightly or wrongly, in terms of national interest—Trump’s actions seem closely tied to his own legacy. His geopolitical ambitions echo in proposals to expand territorial influence, from Greenland to Canada, reflecting a mindset more aligned with personal grandeur than strategic necessity.

This personalization extends into domestic governance. Trump has blurred the lines between public office and private gain, undermining institutional norms and eroding democratic safeguards. His dismissal of scientific consensus, indifference to environmental concerns, and confrontational stance toward political opposition signal a broader pattern of governance that prioritizes control over consensus.

The implications are profound. Trump’s presidency is not simply a departure from precedent—it represents a structural shift. The erosion of democratic norms, coupled with an unpredictable foreign policy, creates a volatile mix with far-reaching consequences. Concerns over electoral integrity and political stability are no longer theoretical; they are immediate and pressing.

The central risk, however, lies in escalation. Without a coherent strategy, conflicts driven by impulse can spiral beyond control. The Iran episode underscores this danger: a war initiated without a clear objective may evolve into a crisis without a clear exit.

Trump is, in many ways, unlike any postwar US president. His leadership combines personal ambition with institutional disruption and geopolitical risk. Whether this moment proves temporary or transformative remains uncertain. What is certain, however, is that the cost of miscalculation—both for the United States and the wider world—could be extraordinarily high.

PSX benchmark index closes week slightly above 150,000 mark

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week, primarily driven by evolving geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and sharp movements in international oil prices. The benchmark index declined by 1,309 points during the week to close at 150,399 points, leading to subdued market participation, with average daily traded volumes declining by 31%WoW to 604 million shares.

Positive sentiments in the first half of the week were supported by: 1) Pakistan-led diplomatic efforts fueling optimism for a possible de-escalation, 2) lower-than-expected increase in CPI to 7.3%YoY in March 2026, and 3) Pakistan securing Staff level agreement with IMF for US$1.2 billion. However, conflicting statements from Iran and the US, along with concerns over a possible ground invasion by the latter, created negative sentiment.

On the macroeconomic front, 2QFY26 GDP growth improved to 3.9%YoY as compared to 3.6%YoY in 1QFY26), while the trade deficit for March 2026 widened 4%YoY to US$2.7 billion.

Meanwhile, the government announced an increase in fuel prices, with HSD/MS rising by PKR184.5 and PKR137.2 per litre, respectively, after providing subsidies over the past 3 weeks.

On the sectoral front, OMC sales for March 2026 increased 19%YoY to 1.4 million tons, while cement offtakes rose 1%YoY during the same period.

Furthermore, T-Bill yields showed mixed movement, declining by 29/2bps for one-month and six-month papers, while three-month and twelve-month papers rose by 29bps and 25bps, respectively.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP secures Kuwait backing for fuel imports, 2) Pakistan, China release ‘five-point initiative’ to restore peace in the Middle East, 3) Pakistan, Afghan Taliban officials meet in China for ceasefire talks, 4) Iran allows 20 more Pak-flagged to pass through Hormuz, and 5) Foreign Exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan increase by US$6 million to US$16.4 billion as of March 27, 2026.

Refinery, Woollen, and Transport emerged as top performing sectors, while Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Leather & Tanneries, and Cable & Electrical Goods were laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net outflow of US$15.7 million, while Individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$16.7 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: TRG, CNERGY, ATRL, BAHL, and BAFL, while laggards included: SCBPL, GADT, KTML, SSOM, and PAEL.

According to AKD Securities, going forward, market sentiment will hinge on developments of the Middle East conflict. Concurrently, upcoming corporate results would also remain in the limelight as 3QFY26 results season approaches. Over the medium term, any de-escalation in the Middle East could spark a strong market rebound. The recent corrections have made valuations more attractive, with forward P/E now at 6.4x.

The brokerage house forecasts the KSE-100 Index to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, EN GROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.