Four vessels struck in Hormuz in 24 hours

According to Seatrade Maritime News, UKMTO has published four warnings of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz which took place on September 28 and 29.

The first of the late reports states that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile late on September 28, leading to a fire onboard, which was later extinguished. The crew were reported as safe. The IMO’s list of confirmed attacks in the region now carries a September 28 incident involving VLCC Al Funtas in the Strait of Hormuz, reporting damage to the ship and no pollution. The ship is owned and operated by Kuwait Oil Tanker Company.

The UKMTO report was filed as suspicious activity, rather than an attack, even though it confirms an attack on the ship.

On September 30, three more late reports were published regarding incidents that took place on September 29. The first report is of a crude oil tanker struck on the port side, identified by Vanguard Tech as 2008-built VLCC Mersin Prosperity. According to Equasis data, the ship is managed by ADNOC.

The second report is of a tanker transiting inbound being struck by an unknown projectile, identified by Vanguard as Sinbad, a Liberian-flagged tanker managed by Anglo-Eastern.

The third report of a tanker struck by an unknown projectile regards Al Ruwais, according to Vanguard, which it identified as an LNG tanker, although the vessel appears to be a Liberia-flagged LR2 owned and operated by ADNOC.

All of the attacks were within the Strait of Hormuz.

Of the three ships identified by Vanguard, only Sinbad appears on Iran’s list of non-compliant vessels it claims have breached Tehran’s rules for transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels on the list, administered by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), are subject to fines, detention, or confiscation during future passages of the Strait of Hormuz, PGSA has warned.

“The extent of damage to the three vessels remains unclear at current,” said Vanguard.

The series of late reports from UKMTO is unusual, and follows Iranian claims to have attacked 19 vessels on September 25 and 26. UKMTO relies on a voluntary reporting scheme and acts as a point of contact for emergency response in the region, and so its reporting capability would be limited should vessels and organizations choose not to report incidents.

 

Oil producers ‌likely to keep their production targets steady

According to a Reuters report, OPEC+ oil producing countries are ‌likely to keep their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday.

The online meeting of seven core OPEC+ members, namely: ​Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — comes as ⁠Gulf members have been boosting exports that have been disrupted for months by the blockade of Strait of Hurmuz, although most are still pumping well below their output targets.

OPEC+ comprises the Organization ​of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. OPEC and authorities in Russia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The group has been raising its output targets for most of the ​year but kept them steady for October.

In September it completed the phased rollback of a ​1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023.

Reuters reported in July that OPEC+ was likely to make ‌no changes ⁠to its targets during the fourth quarter as it turns its focus to 2027 quota negotiations. Disruption caused by the Iran war has meant Gulf producers are falling below their quotas.

OPEC data showed the seven core OPEC+ producers produced 25.0 million barrels per ​day in August, ​up 630,000 bpd from ⁠July yet still roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war levels in February.

OPEC+ still has one more layer of production cuts of ​about 2 million bpd covering most members through the end ​of 2026.

The ⁠group needs to finalize a review of members' production capacity before setting 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas and shape plans to unwind those cuts, sources have said.

A separate OPEC+ ministerial group called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which does not decide policy, ​also meets on Sunday to review the market.

US Forces Exit Iraq After Two Decades

Is the US exiting Iraq by choice—or under pressure?

I am not surprised by the announcement that US forces are leaving Iraq. The withdrawal was agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and is now being implemented by Donald Trump’s administration. Yet the timing is intriguing - America is leaving Iraq while simultaneously confronting Iran in a widening regional conflict.

The obvious interpretation is that Washington has concluded that its military mission in Iraq has run its course. But geopolitics rarely ends with the departure of troops. America may be leaving Iraq militarily without necessarily leaving the Iraqi theatre strategically.

The withdrawal removes a long-standing American military presence that acted as a counterweight to Iran's influence. Iran and its allies are already celebrating the departure as a victory, while some Iraqi officials fear that the resulting security gap could strengthen Iran-backed militias. At the same time, Islamic State sleeper cells remain active, creating another potential source of instability.

This raises a more provocative question; could the withdrawal ultimately facilitate another phase of the US-Iran confrontation rather than bring it to an end?

There is no evidence that Washington intends to use Islamic State as a proxy. Yet the possibility deserves consideration. Iraqi commanders have reported increased movement by sleeper cells following news of the withdrawal, while the loss of American intelligence, drones and logistical support could give the group greater operating space.

A security vacuum, if it develops, could provide militants with an opportunity to revive—and governments with a pretext for renewed intervention.

Iraq's oil resources add another strategic dimension. Any prolonged instability affecting exploration, production or export infrastructure would have consequences far beyond Iraq. Whether such an outcome is intended or simply emerges from a deteriorating security environment remains an open question.

Therefore, America's departure should not automatically be interpreted as the end of its Iraqi engagement. Troops may be leaving, but American strategic interests are unlikely to disappear with them.

The real question begins after September 30, will Iraq finally exercise greater sovereignty, or will the vacuum created by the withdrawal become the opening chapter of another US-Iran proxy confrontation?

The Syndicate That Brought Trump Is Losing Patience

Donald Trump returned to the White House with the support of a broad coalition of political, business, media, energy, technology and investment interests. Many expected his second presidency to deliver decisive results. Nearly two years later, some members of this coalition may be confronting a widening gap between expectations and reality.

Iran is perhaps the clearest example. The US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, has entered its seventh month, yet Tehran has not surrendered. Iran has endured sustained military pressure while retaining significant leverage, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic efforts are continuing, but Washington and Tehran remain far apart.

The economic consequences are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. US diesel prices have climbed above US$6 per gallon, while concerns over shortages are intensifying. Trump has considered restricting diesel exports, but the oil industry has resisted, warning that such a move could disrupt refinery operations and ultimately worsen supplies.

The oil market presents another uncomfortable reality. Brent crude has moved above US$100 per barrel, but the much-discussed US$200 target remains elusive. More significantly, the spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate has widened, reflecting a market increasingly distorted by geopolitical risk rather than controlled by policy.

The media was among the first constituencies to become increasingly critical. Energy companies are now showing greater resistance, while investors are becoming more selective about technology and AI valuations. The military-industrial complex, meanwhile, continues to receive substantial attention, but the prolonged conflict raises questions about the sustainability and strategic payoff of escalating military expenditure.

This growing friction also has a political dimension. A fresh impeachment resolution was tabled in the House on September 15 by 232–147, with 47 members voting present. It therefore did not proceed to a Senate trial. Yet another attempt cannot be ruled out, particularly if political control of Congress changes.

The larger question is whether the diverse interests that helped bring Trump back to power can remain united when geopolitical ambitions collide with energy prices, corporate interests, financial markets and domestic political pressures.

“The Syndicate” may never have been a formal organization. It was a convergence of interests. The real test now is whether that convergence can survive the widening gap between expectations and results.

PSX closes the week almost flat

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile during the week ended on September 25, 2026. The benchmark Index gained 372 points or 0.22%WoW to close the week at 170,885 points.

Yemeni Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline forced the closure of a key export route, pushing Brent crude to a 4-month high of US$109.7/bbl. However, oil prices eased during the final two days.

The index recovered on fading concerns over immediate Saudi supply disruptions, outweighing fears of a broader Middle East conflict.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the policy rate unchanged at 11.50% on Monday, in line with broad market consensus.

The current account deficit narrowed sharply by 70%YoY to US$98 million in August 2926.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP hit a record high of US$21.4 billion, pushing the country's import cover past three months for the first time in 5-Years.

Furthermore, yields on 3 and 6-month T-Bills declined in the last auction.

FDI increased by 80%YoY to US$316 billion during August 2026.

Auto industry sales increased by 11%YoY to 17,485 units in August 2026.

IT exports rose 17%YoY to US$394 million.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP presents IMF plan to retire PkR3.6tn gas-sector circular debt, 2) Pakistan eyes to seek an expansion of its 30-billion-yuan swap line with China, 3) Pakistan cotton arrivals rises by 19%YoY to 2.4 million bales as of September 3026, 4) Auto financing in August 2026 reached record high of PKR393 billion, and 5) GoP approves PKR75 billion subsidy for fuel relief scheme.

Leading sectors were: Synthetic and Rayon, Leasing Companies, and Real Estate Investment Trust, while laggards included: Textile Weaving, Paper and Board, and Leathers and Tanneries.

Major buyers were Individuals (US$11.0 million) and Banks (US$2.6 million). On the contrary, major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds (US$12.7 million) and Foreigners (US$3.4 million).

Top performing scrips were: PSEL, IBFL, and CPHL. On the other side, laggards included: GHNI, GAL, and NBP.

Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities expects the market to improve on the back of strengthening economic indicators, with the upcoming IMF review in the next week to remain a key near-term catalyst. A potential US-Iran deal could moderate international oil prices from current elevated levels.

The market continues to trade at attractive valuations. The brokerage house forecasts the benchmark Index to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Our top picks of the brokerage include OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

 

 

Xi-Trump summit appears ceremonial

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meeting in Washington on Thursday, marked their second face-to-face meeting this year after their May summit in Beijing. The White House rolled out the red carpet for Xi, with Trump personally greeting the Chinese leader at Joint Base Andrews, an unusual gesture that underscored the importance Washington attached to the state visit.

According to Nikkei Asia that has been closely covering this event, at the first glance, the summit looked like a major geopolitical event. In reality, however, the most consequential development had already taken place before the two leaders sat down together.

Following talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an agreement to extend the US-China trade truce by another two months. Given the potential global economic consequences, this announcement was more significant than anything that emerged from the summit itself.

Like the Beijing meeting earlier this year, this week's summit appeared to be largely ceremonial. According to a Xinhua readout, Xi once again sought reassurance on the US position toward Taiwan. On artificial intelligence, he called for the world's two largest economies to ensure that AI remains under human control. Additional agreements may still emerge, but for now the summit's tangible achievements remain unclear.

The ambiguity may have been exactly what Trump wanted. With November's midterm elections approaching, the US president is eager to demonstrate progress on the global stage. By holding a smooth summit with America's foremost strategic rival and meeting Xi twice in just over four months, Trump can argue that he has built a strong working relationship with China's leader, regardless of whether the meetings produced breakthrough agreements.

The international community, along with media organizations watched the summit closely in anticipation of major news. Yet the biggest takeaway may be what did not happen - no new confrontation, no dramatic breakthrough, and no clear shift in the trajectory of US-China relations.

We will continue to follow developments closely and provide in-depth coverage of US-China relations and what they mean for Asia and the world.

Ahead of this week's Trump-Xi summit, a familiar Western demand resurfaced: Let the yuan rise. As China's trade surplus builds toward another record and estimates suggest its currency remains as much as 30% undervalued, economists and policymakers are increasingly arguing that a stronger yuan is needed to rebalance trade flows.

Europe, where manufacturers are under intense pressure from Chinese rivals, has been particularly vocal about this point. While Beijing has allowed some carefully managed yuan appreciation, Chinese policymakers fear a rapid rise would squeeze already thin exporter margins, worsen unemployment and deepen the deficiency in domestic demand.

 

 

 

Pezeshkian vows no surrender in war with US

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has accused President Donald Trump of a "bullying ​mentality", saying Iran would not surrender in the war with the United States, but remained open to diplomacy to end the conflict.

In a wartime address to the 193-member UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Pezeshkian said threats would only harden Iran's resolve, rejecting Trump's warning that he could annihilate Iran if no deal were reached.

"The resistance of the Iranian people will only increase in the face of sanctions, increased pressure, increased bullying," Pezeshkian said, responding to Trump's threat to "annihilate" the Islamic Republic if a deal is not reached soon.

There was no immediate comment from the US, whose delegation walked out of the chamber at the start of Pezeshkian's address.

"The US president described us as terrorists. We have been the victims of terrorism," Iran's president told the UN General Assembly.

He then held up a photo of the country's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a strike on his residence when the US and Israel launched a joint attack in late February.

He also presented pictures of some of the more than 175 civilians, two-thirds of them children, who Iranian authorities say were killed in missile strikes on a primary school in Minab and a sports complex in Lamerd that day. "Our innocent people have been the targets of cowardly attacks and aggressions imposed on our country. And we defended ourselves with utmost strength," Pezeshkian said.

In his address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Trump said he faced a "big decision" - either negotiate a deal that would allow Iranians to rebuild their country, or "annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly".

Pezeshkian said the threat was "a sign of a bullying mentality".

"[Trump] must know that the resistance of the Iranian people will only increase in the face of sanctions, increased pressure, increased bullying. We will never bow our head or bend the knee," he said.

But he added, "We are ready for dialogue and diplomacy and negotiations without accepting the language of force."

Pezeshkian made clear that the US blockade would have to end as part of any deal.

"It cannot be the case that everyone benefits from the Strait of Hormuz while we are denied access to shipping through this waterway," he said.

He also reiterated that Iran would not give up its right to have a civilian nuclear program and that it would not seek to develop nuclear weapons.

"We say it clearly: no nuclear weapons and no limitations on peaceful nuclear technology."

Trump argued in his speech that the war had prevented Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb and demanded that its leaders "relinquish their nuclear ambitions".

On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff held indirect talks brokered by Qatari mediators on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

Witkoff said he hoped the discussions – the first since June – would "prove constructive and promising", adding that the mediators would continue their work.

But Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai said the talks were "not anything new" and that Araghchi had maintained Iran's conditions, including the end of the US blockade and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

In June, the US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it collapsed within weeks after the Iranian attacks on shipping resumed and the US reinstated its blockade.