Pakistan Shouldn't Pass the Cost to Consumers

The prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is exposing vulnerabilities across South Asia. Much of the attention has focused on India because of its heavy dependence on energy imports flowing through the strategic waterway. Rising fuel costs, inflationary pressures and risks to industrial growth are now beginning to emerge. Pakistanis should not avoid viewing this merely as a problem across the border, but take immediate corrective steps. Pakistan's challenge is even more complicated because its economic space for absorbing external shocks is considerably narrower. To read details click https://shkazmipk.com/energy-crisis-in-pakistan-19/

Escalation Carries Costs World Cannot Afford

The debate surrounding the Strait of Hormuz increasingly appears to be moving in a dangerous direction. Attention seems focused on how quickly the waterway can be reopened and how strongly pressure can be applied. Yet a larger question deserves equal attention, what if the cure becomes costlier than the disease itself?

The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a strategic water passage. It is one of the world’s most critical economic arteries. Any prolonged disruption affects much more than regional politics. Energy markets react instantly, shipping costs rise, insurance premiums climb, and financial markets begin pricing uncertainty into almost every sector.

The present concern is not simply the blockade itself. The greater risk lies in the assumption that military escalation automatically delivers rapid political results. History often suggests otherwise. Military pressure can create consequences that continue long after the original objective has been achieved.

Another issue relates to perception and diplomacy. The impression that US President Donald Trump often adopts forceful positions and occasionally shifts messaging rapidly could create uncertainty among allies and adversaries alike. In international crises, predictability can become a strategic asset. Markets and partners generally respond more positively to clarity than to uncertainty.

Arab states also have reasons to remain cautious. Their economies have spent decades building themselves around trade, finance, logistics, and regional stability. Few would welcome being pulled into an expanding confrontation carrying uncertain outcomes.

Meanwhile, larger powers cannot be ignored. If Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin conclude that their strategic or economic interests are being threatened, increased diplomatic or political involvement may further complicate the situation.

The real warning is becoming difficult to ignore. The issue may no longer be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. The larger question is whether attempts to force a quick solution end up creating a much wider economic shock. History repeatedly shows that markets can recover from temporary disruptions. Recovering from a broader geopolitical fracture is often far more difficult.

Blockade, Brinkmanship and Arab Dilemma

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer merely a military confrontation; it is becoming a strategic test of whether coercion can force Iran into submission, the answer appears negative. Efforts to end the blockade and restore normal maritime movement seem to have stalled because diplomacy remains overshadowed by Washington’s hardline approach toward Tehran. Yet history repeatedly shows that military pressure may weaken states, but rarely compels complete political surrender. More often, it deepens resistance and prolongs conflict.

Another troubling reality is the growing perception that negotiations are being used more to buy time than to build trust. If the United States is preparing harsher assaults under the cover of diplomacy, Iran would naturally be using the same period to regroup, rebuild capabilities, and recalibrate its response strategy. This creates a dangerous cycle in which diplomacy and escalation move together rather than separately.

Meanwhile, the economic costs for America’s Arab allies are becoming increasingly painful. Continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has severely affected regional oil exports, threatened revenues, investor confidence, and fiscal stability across Gulf economies that depend heavily on uninterrupted energy flows.

More alarming for Arab capitals is Iran’s demonstrated ability to strike strategic installations with precision. These attacks have shaken the long-standing assumption that Western military protection alone can guarantee regional security. The uncomfortable realization now emerging is that even advanced defense arrangements cannot fully shield critical infrastructure from a determined regional adversary.

This explains the visible cracks within the broader Arab strategy. Initial assumptions that Iran could be rapidly subdued or strategically isolated are giving way to a more cautious assessment. Tehran has proved far more resilient than many expected.

The Arab world now faces a difficult choice - continue supporting an escalating confrontation with uncertain outcomes or adopt a more pragmatic approach toward coexistence. This does not require endorsement of Iran’s regional policies. It simply demands recognition of geopolitical realities.

If the strategy of forcing Iran into submission has failed, Arab states may ultimately have to learn to live with the lesser evil — giving Tehran limited political space and rebuilding workable relations before the region slides into a wider and far more destructive conflict.

Game Spoilers in the Gulf Conflict

As the confrontation between the United States and Iran drags on without a decisive outcome, the risk of “game spoilers” entering the conflict appears to be increasing. In every prolonged geopolitical crisis, there are actors that benefit not from peace, but from deeper mistrust, wider confrontation, and permanent instability.

Recent attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia have once again intensified regional tensions. Predictably, fingers were pointed towards Iran. Yet the opaque nature of modern hybrid warfare makes definitive attribution increasingly difficult. Drone strikes, sabotage operations, and covert attacks are often designed to create confusion before facts fully emerge.

This raises an uncomfortable but important question: does Iran genuinely benefit from escalating hostilities with Gulf Arab states at this particular moment?

The answer is far from straightforward.

The UAE, particularly Dubai, depends heavily on regional stability to sustain its position as a financial, logistics, and commercial hub. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 also requires calm energy markets and investor confidence. Iran, meanwhile, urgently needs uninterrupted oil exports — especially shipments destined for China — to stabilize its sanction-hit economy. A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would damage Tehran as much as its Arab neighbors.

If all major regional players need stable oil flows, then who benefits from widening the Arab-Iranian divide?

This is where the possibility of “game spoilers” deserves attention. Any gradual rapprochement between Gulf capitals and Tehran could reduce regional polarization, weaken dependence on external security arrangements, and create new economic alignments across the Middle East. Such an outcome may not suit every strategic actor involved in the region.

History shows that Middle Eastern conflicts are rarely shaped solely by declared combatants. Proxy warfare, covert operations, intelligence manipulation, and narrative management have long remained part of the geopolitical landscape.

None of this proves the existence of a hidden hand behind recent attacks. However, dismissing the possibility entirely may also be naive. In today’s Middle East, perception itself has become a weapon.

The real danger may not only be missiles and drones, but the invisible forces attempting to ensure that Arabs and Iranians remain locked in perpetual suspicion and confrontation.

Dubai’s Dangerous Drift

For decades, Dubai built its prosperity on neutrality, commerce, and strategic pragmatism. It transformed itself into the Middle East’s leading financial and logistics hub by staying open to all sides. Today that carefully cultivated image appears increasingly at risk as the emirate seems to drift into a broader US-led confrontation with Iran.

Recent tensions with Saudi Arabia, speculation surrounding its future role in OPEC, and growing American pressure to assume a larger regional security role have created an uncomfortable perception that Dubai may be abandoning neutrality for geopolitical adventurism.

That could prove dangerously costly.

Dubai’s economic strength depends overwhelmingly on foreign investment, tourism, trade, and financial services. Unlike larger regional powers, it possesses limited industrial and manufacturing depth to absorb prolonged geopolitical shocks. The moment investors sense instability, capital flight can begin rapidly. Financial centers survive on confidence, not military alliances.

Geography further magnifies the risk. Iran lies directly across the Gulf. In any military escalation, ports, airports, financial districts, and energy infrastructure become exposed targets. Even limited retaliation could disrupt shipping lanes, damage investors’ sentiments, and undermine Dubai’s carefully built reputation as a safe commercial gateway.

Another uncomfortable reality is often overlooked. While Israel may welcome Gulf normalization politically, it also views regional influence competitively. Dubai’s emergence as a dominant commercial and logistics hub does not necessarily align with Israeli ambitions to become the region’s undisputed technological and economic powerhouse.

Critical assets such as Jebel Ali Port and Port of Fujairah are central not only to Gulf trade, but also to global supply chains. Dubai became successful by avoiding regional confrontations. Abandoning that balance may expose the emirate to consequences far beyond its calculations.

MBS Silence and Strategic Pressure

The unusually restrained posture of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) during the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran reflects a deeper geopolitical shift unfolding across the Middle East. For decades, Washington’s regional strategy relied heavily on portraying Iran as the principal threat to Arab security. However, the China-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran weakened that narrative and signaled growing strategic independence within the Gulf.

Equally significant is Riyadh’s continued reluctance to join the Abraham Accords despite persistent pressure from the United States. Several Gulf states now appear increasingly cautious about unconditional alignment with Washington’s regional priorities.

Against this backdrop, the renewed legal attention to the Jamal Khashoggi case in France carries significance beyond the human rights dimension alone. A French anti-terrorism judge has been tasked with investigating allegations linked to Khashoggi’s killing inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 — years after Turkey transferred proceedings to Saudi authorities and the United States effectively closed related civil litigation by granting immunity protections to MBS.

There is no evidence of direct political coordination behind the French inquiry. Yet, in geopolitics, timing often shapes perception as much as facts themselves. The reopening of a dormant controversy at a moment of visible divergence between Washington and Riyadh inevitably invites broader strategic interpretation.

Whether the renewed focus on Khashoggi is purely judicial or partly geopolitical may become clearer in the months ahead, particularly if tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia continue to widen.

Dubai’s Departure from Strategic Neutrality

For decades, Dubai’s greatest strength was not oil, military power, or ideology. Its success rested on something far more valuable - strategic neutrality. Long before the Abraham Accords, Dubai had developed deep commercial relations with Iran. Iranian traders, investors, and businesses contributed significantly to Dubai’s emergence as the Gulf’s financial and trading hub. Geography, commerce, and pragmatism kept the relationship functional despite periodic political tensions. That balance now appears dangerously fragile.

The recent regional escalation involving Israel, backed firmly by the United States, has fundamentally altered Gulf dynamics. Once confrontation expanded beyond rhetoric, countries hosting American military infrastructure inevitably became exposed to Iranian retaliation. The message from Tehran was unmistakable - no state facilitating strategic pressure against Iran can expect complete immunity from the consequences.

Dubai today faces a strategic contradiction. On one hand, closer ties with Israel promise access to advanced technology, intelligence cooperation, and stronger alignment with Western security interests. On the other hand, this growing partnership risks eroding the very foundations of Dubai’s economic model.

Global investors do not merely seek modern infrastructure or luxury skylines; they seek predictability and stability. Dubai’s ports, aviation industry, tourism sector, and re-export businesses all depend upon the perception that the emirate remains insulated from regional conflict. Persistent hostility with Iran threatens that perception.

The Gulf cannot afford a prolonged environment where trade routes remain vulnerable, energy corridors uncertain, and geopolitical tensions permanently elevated. Iran, despite sanctions and diplomatic isolation, remains a pivotal regional actor with influence over critical maritime routes and strategic leverage that cannot simply be ignored.

The real danger for Dubai is not military confrontation alone. It is the gradual loss of its carefully cultivated identity as a neutral gateway between competing powers. History shows that commercial centers flourish when they build bridges, not when they become extensions of geopolitical rivalries.

Dubai’s growing closeness with Israel may deliver short-term strategic gains, but if it destroys regional economic equilibrium, the long-term costs could far outweigh the immediate benefits.