Targeting Pakistan’s Heart: Terror Beyond Sectarian Lines

The latest bomb blast at an Imam Bargah during Friday prayers must not be dismissed as yet another episode of sectarian violence. To frame it that way is misleading—and plays directly into the hands of those who seek to destabilize Pakistan. This was a strategic strike aimed at the state, social cohesion, and economic revival, not a spontaneous sectarian clash.

The choice of location is telling. An attack in or near the federal capital is a deliberate message: those entrusted with national security are being exposed as vulnerable. This is about demonstrating institutional weakness, not simply causing casualties.

Targeting Shias at a place of worship is tactically calculated to manufacture the illusion of sectarian conflict. Pakistan’s Shia and Sunni communities have coexisted for decades. By creating the perception of intra-Muslim hostility, the perpetrators hope to provoke mistrust, social fragmentation, and internal tension—classic tools to weaken a nation from within.

Timing is critical. After prolonged economic strain, Pakistan is showing early signs of recovery—stabilizing markets, cautious investor interest, and renewed trade activity. Terrorism at this juncture is meant to undermine confidence, discourage investment, and stall the revival.

The attack also feeds into the Afghan blame narrative. Linking violence to cross-border militancy or safe havens conveniently shifts attention from the real sponsors, strains Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, and disrupts the flow of Afghan transit trade—a vital lifeline for both economies.

To call this “sectarian killing” is to misdiagnose the problem. The reality is far more calculated: a foreign hand is striking at security credibility, social harmony, regional diplomacy, and economic momentum. The question is not who was killed, but who benefits. And the answer lies far beyond sectarian lines.

Pakistan cannot allow its narrative to be hijacked. Recognizing the true nature of these attacks is the first step toward ensuring that security, economic revival, and regional cooperation are not held hostage by external designs.

Bangladesh Election: In the Shadow of Power, Protest and External Pressures

Bangladesh’s forthcoming general election is taking place at an extraordinary political moment, shaped less by routine electoral competition and more by the aftershocks of mass unrest, institutional recalibration, and regional scrutiny. The vote is widely viewed as a test of whether the country can transition from prolonged political dominance to a more inclusive and credible democratic order.

The Bangladesh Army has emerged as a pivotal, though discreet, actor in this phase. During the upheaval that led to the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, the military refrained from using force against protesters and facilitated the installation of an interim administration. Officially, the army insists it has no political ambitions. Yet its role in maintaining security and stabilizing state institutions gives it considerable behind-the-scenes influence over the transition.

Equally significant is the role of the student fraternity. What began as protests against unemployment, corruption, and governance failures evolved into a nationwide movement that altered the political landscape. Some leaders of these protests have now entered formal politics, signaling a rare shift from street agitation to electoral participation. Whether this energy translates into sustained political organization remains an open question.

The Awami League, long synonymous with power under Sheikh Hasina, finds itself on the margins. Legal proceedings against its leadership and its exclusion from the electoral process have sparked debate about political accountability versus inclusivity. While supporters argue the measures are necessary to reset governance, critics warn that sidelining a major party risk narrowing democratic choice.

The opposition space is largely occupied by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Following the death of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, leadership influence rests primarily with her son, Tarique Rahman, who continues to shape party strategy from abroad. The BNP faces the challenge of converting opportunity into coherence after years of political disruption.

Externally, India is closely watching developments, given its strategic, economic, and security interests in Bangladesh. The United States remains engaged through diplomatic pressure and advocacy for a transparent electoral process. By contrast, there is no credible evidence of direct Pakistani influence, despite occasional rhetorical references in domestic discourse.

Ultimately, this election is less about personalities and more about institutions. Bangladesh’s real challenge lies in whether power can be contested through ballots rather than barricades, and whether the promise of democratic renewal can outlast the politics of upheaval.

PSX: Geopolitics and internal security concerns mar performance

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PXS) trended upwards for most of the week before adjusting by 3,703 points on Friday’s session, wiping out earlier gains to close the benchmark index at 184,130pts, down 45 points or 0.02%WoW. The decline was triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions over US and Iran, alongside adverse domestic security developments.

Earlier in the week, sentiments were supported by Prime Minister’s industrial relief package, coupled with record high monthly exports of US$3.06 billion during January 2026, resulting in 7%YoY drop in trade deficit. Inflation reading during the month remained lower than expected at 5.8%YoY.

Cement sector’s offtakes hit 5-year high of 4.54 million tons, up 13%YoY, driven by higher sea-exports.

OMC offtakes also increased by 6%YoY to 1.35 million tons.

Banking sector deposits expanded by 0.7%WoW, providing a positive backdrop for the sector.

T-Bill and PIB yields rose by 15 to 40 bps, in the first auction following SBP’s decision to leave policy rate unchanged.

Despite improved sentiments, market participation weakened during the week, with average daily trading volume declining by 12%WoW to 1.2 billion shares, from 1.4 billion shares in the earlier week.

On the currency front, PKR appreciated by 0.02%WoW against the greenback during the week, closing the week at 279.71 PKR to a US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) UAE rolls over US$2 billion Pak loan for a month, 2) GoP requests Saudi Arabia for two-year extension in oil facility, 3) Barrick reviews Reko Diq project amid security concerns, 4) FBR collection rose 16%YoY to PKR1,015 billion in January 2026, and 5) Private sector credit expands by PKR 589 billion in FYTD.

Power Generation & Distribution, Jute, Leather & Tanneries, Inv. Banks/ Inv. Cos./ Securities Cos., and Real Estate Investment Trust were amongst the top performing sectors, while Chemical, Engineering, Tobacco, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies and Cement were amongst the laggards.

Major buying was recorded by Mutual Funds, Brokers, and Companies with an aggregate net buy of US$32 million. Banks and Foreigners were major sellers with net aggregate sell of US$25 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: KEL, ILP, SAZEW, HMB, and TRG, while laggards included LOTCHEM, PIBTL, PPL, GADT, and KTML.

AKD Securities foresees the positive momentum at PSX to continue due to improving macros and continuous focus on reforms amid political stability. The brokerage house forecasts the benchmark Index to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Investors sentiments are expected to improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Top picks of the brokerage house are: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

Trump’s Iran Posturing Is Not Diplomacy, but Coercion

Donald Trump’s latest threat to attack Iran unless Tehran submits to his demands is not diplomacy, it is coercion masquerading as negotiation. Washington claims the upcoming Oman talks focus on Iran’s nuclear program. In reality, Trump is exploiting military pressure and Iran’s recent domestic unrest to force sweeping political concessions. His warning that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei should be “very worried” reveals the real intent: intimidation, not engagement.

The starting point is simple. Trump himself tore up the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018, despite Iran’s compliance verified by international inspectors. By walking away from an UN-backed deal, he forfeited any moral authority to dictate new terms. Having dismantled the framework, he now seeks to resurrect it with added demands — including Iran’s missile program, regional alliances, and internal policies. That is not renegotiation; it is strategic extortion.

If this were genuinely about uranium enrichment, talks would remain technical and narrow. Instead, US officials insist on expanding the agenda to missiles, proxy groups, and Iran’s domestic affairs. Tehran has rightly rejected this maximalist approach, agreeing only to discuss nuclear issues.

Trump’s reported preconditions — zero uranium enrichment, missile restrictions, and abandonment of regional partners — amount to demanding Iran’s strategic surrender. Zero enrichment alone violates Iran’s rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which permits peaceful nuclear activity. Iranian officials have even signaled flexibility on enrichment levels, yet Washington insists on total prohibition.

Simultaneously, the US has deployed an aircraft carrier, warships, fighter jets, and thousands of troops to the region. Drones have been shot down, naval encounters are escalating, and oil prices are rising. This is classic gunboat diplomacy.

The irony is striking. Trump warns of nuclear danger while having destroyed the very inspection regime that restrained Iran’s program. He pressures Tehran under threat of airstrikes, while Israel — a non-NPT nuclear power — remains beyond scrutiny. The double standard is glaring.

Negotiations conducted under the shadow of missiles are not negotiations. They are ultimatums.

If Trump truly sought stability, he would rejoin the agreement he abandoned, remove preconditions, and restore inspections-based diplomacy. Instead, he is gambling with another Middle East conflict — one that could engulf the entire region.

This is not statesmanship. It is brinkmanship.

US$10 trillion a day global currency market becomes more volatile

The dollar, the world's No.1 reserve currency, is having a rocky ride as unpredictable White House policy moves and Federal Reserve independence concerns revive "Sell America" trades. While it is expected to weaken further, sudden rebounds in the greenback can catch traders out just as much as sudden sharp falls.

Having fallen almost 2% in one week in January to four-year lows, an index measuring the dollar's value against other major currencies then bounced back, causing metals market mayhem.

Here's a look at how dollar risks are rippling through world markets.

The dollar's rebound in the last two trading sessions, following US President Donald Trump's decision to nominate former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to replace outgoing Fed chief Jerome Powell has sparked a metals market meltdown.

Gold, which had notched up its best month in more than half a century in January, slumped 5% on Monday after its biggest daily fall since the early 1980s in the prior session - it regained some ground on Tuesday.

Traders had crowded into a popular currency debasement trade that relied on metals prices rising as Fed independence kept the dollar on a steady weakening path. That concept then dropped out of metals markets "at lightning speed," days, Societe Generale said in a client note.

US$10 trillion a day global currency market becomes more volatile.

A gauge of the most actively traded currency pair -- the euro/dollar exchange rate that measures expected volatility in three months' time, hit its highest since July last week.

According to Capital Economics, the dollar had become detached from traditional valuation metrics like the gap between US and Japanese or European interest rates.

Barclays has calculated a US policy risk premium for the dollar, meaning it is influenced by White House rhetoric and has become partly detached from the economic and growth forecasts that investors usually track. That could make stocks and bonds priced in dollars harder for foreign investors to hold and value.

While the indexes were lifted by gains in chipmakers, small caps also performed well, with the Russell 2000 jumping about 1%.

"The main question is whether people lose confidence in the US asset base," said Barclays global head of FX and EM macro strategy Themos Fiotakis.

Foreign investors own almost US$70 trillion worth of US assets, more than doubling their holdings in the last decade as Wall Street stocks boomed. European money managers are assessing their exposures.

A weaker dollar can boost US stocks by increasing the local currency value of companies' overseas earnings and often raises prices of Treasuries.

"But disorderly dollar decline could change this relationship," Bank of America analysts said in a note.

A disorderly drop would be a 5% monthly loss, BofA said, which could generate a "drastic sell-off of long-dated Treasuries," and tighten US financial conditions significantly.

A wider debasement trade, with the dollar falling in tandem with domestic assets, was also a risk, BofA said.

Courtesy: Reuters

 

Cuba another victim of US imperialism

As blackouts stretch through the night and food prices rocket by the week, Cubans are once again being tested to the limits of endurance. The streets of Havana—still lined with vintage cars and colonial façades—have rarely looked more fragile. Power outages now last up to twelve hours, fuel lines snake around blocks, and the peso continues to plummet. For many, survival has become the nation’s only industry.

The US government’s latest squeeze—threatening tariffs on countries supplying Cuba with oil—tightens an economic chokehold that stretches back decades. The collapse of Venezuela’s oil support and Mexico’s recent withdrawal have left the island gasping. Washington’s strategy may aim to force change, but the immediate result is predictable: ordinary Cubans bearing the cost of geopolitical rivalry.

Yet this is not a story of sudden collapse; it is one of cumulative exhaustion. Cuba’s aging power grid has long teetered on failure, and its post-revolution economy—built on rationing and resilience—has been stretched to breaking point. Housewives like Yaite Verdecia say, “There’s no salary that can cope with this.” Taxi drivers who once saw electric vehicles as their future can no longer find power to charge them. Lines for food and fuel have become an inescapable part of daily life.

Despite everything, the streets remain largely silent. A mix of repression, fear, and fatigue has subdued public protest since the brief outburst of 2021. Millions have left the island since the pandemic, draining its energy and voice. Those who remain, like 71-year-old Mirta Trujillo, cling to faith rather than politics: “I’m not against my country... but I don’t want to die of hunger.”

Cuba’s crisis today is not only about oil, inflation, or blackouts—it is about hope running on empty. While US sanctions may claim to pressure the regime, these are instead breaking the backs of its people. After six decades of survival against the odds, Cuba’s lights may dim again, but its will to endure—worn thin and weary—still flickers in the dark.

PSX witnesses extreme volatility but benchmark index declines 2.6%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) trended downward for most of the week before rebounding by 1,836 points, with the benchmark index shedding 4,992 points or 2.6%WoW to close at 184,174 points. The decline was triggered by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) keeping policy rate unchanged at 10.5%, against market expectations. It was followed by heightened geopolitical tensions between US and Iran, and lower than expected results from FFC for the final quarter. However, sentiment was upturned as geopolitical tensions began to ease. Banking sector recorded second highest annual growth in deposits, ending the year at PKR37.4 trillion. Moreover, SBP reduced average Cash Reserve Requirement for banks from 6% to 5%, aimed at stipulating private sector credit growth.

Market participation strengthened marginally during the week by 3%WoW, with average daily trading volume to 1.40 billion shares, from 1.36 billion shares a week ago. Foreign exchange reserves held by (SBP) increased by US$13 million to US$16.1 billion as of Jan 23, 2026. PKR appreciated by 0.03%WoW against the greenback during the week to close the week at 279.77 PKR/ a US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP has set 5.1% GDP growth target for federal budget, 2) Brent crude nears six-month high on Iran attack concerns, 3) SBP revises GDP growth upward up to 4.75% for FY26, 4) IMF chief praises Pakistan’s reform push, and 5) Circular debt flow declines to PKR75 billion in 1HFY26.

Property, Jute, Vanaspati & Allied Industries, and Automobile Assembler were amongst the top performing sectors, while Fertilizer, Chemical, Insurance, Paper & Board, and Textile Spinning were amongst the laggards.

Major buying was recorded by Individuals and Foreigners with a net buy of US$25.7 million and US$17.8 million. Mutual Funds and Banks were the major sellers with net sell of US$22.7 million and US$11.8 million respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: JVDC, 2) SAZEW, KEL, MTL, and PPL, while top laggards included: GADT, HCAR, FFC, AICL, and LCI.

AKD securities foresees the positive momentum at PSX to continue on improving macros and continuous focus on reforms amid political stability.

The brokerage house anticipates the benchmark Index to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Our top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.