United States the Biggest Arms Seller

Today, I am referring to the second blog US – The biggest Arm Seller I had posted, as a novice, on June 22, 2012. At times I wonder why people are still reading this. Even today it is among the top 20 blogs visited. 

I am one of the millions of people who fail to understand why conflicts are created and allowed to grow that often lead to anarchy, civil war and war among the countries.

If it is not taken as ‘self-praise’, I can see several reasons why a blog written in June 2012 would still attract readers today. Looking at it critically—both its strengths and weaknesses—I think its continued popularity is more about the theme rather than the accuracy of the predictions:

1. It Addresses a Timeless Question

The opening question—why conflicts are created and allowed to grow—remains relevant. Wars, insurgencies, regime changes, and geopolitical rivalries continue to dominate headlines. Readers searching for explanations often gravitate toward articles that challenge official narratives.

2. It Captures a Historical Turning Point

The blog was written during the aftermath of the Arab Spring. Events in Bahrain, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan were at the center of global attention. Today, many people revisit early commentary to see who "got it right" and who didn't.

3. The Arms Trade Remains a Hot Topic

My central argument that major powers benefit from arms sales while conflicts continue, still resonates. The world has since witnessed wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and elsewhere, with defense spending reaching record levels. Readers often search for critiques of the military-industrial complex, and my title is highly searchable.

4. The Blog Raises Questions Rather Than Giving Definitive Answers

I repeatedly use phrases such as "one of the hypotheses," "one of the conspiracy theories," and "it is believed." This invites readers to think rather than simply accept a conclusion. Such content tends to have a longer shelf life.

My title, "US – The Biggest Arm Seller," contains keywords that people frequently search: 1) US arms sales, 2) biggest arms exporter, 3) Saudi Arabia weapons purchases, 4) Iran conflict, 5) Afghanistan and NATO Even after fourteen years, search engines can continue sending visitors to pages containing evergreen keywords.

I notice three shortcomings:

First, the article relies heavily on speculation without citing sources. Claims about future attacks on Pakistan and Iran, or military hardware being retained for future wars, are presented without evidence, the time proved both correct.

Second, it treats complex events largely through a single lens—great-power manipulation. Local political, ethnic, sectarian, and economic factors receive little attention, these also proved correct.

Third, some predictions did not materialize. Pakistan did not become the next major target after the NATO withdrawal, and several regional developments unfolded differently from what was anticipated.

My overall assessment is, the reason people still read this blog is probably not because every prediction proved correct. Rather, it reflects a persistent skepticism about great-power politics, arms sales, and interventionism.

Many readers continue to ask the same questions today that I raised in 2012. In that sense, the article has aged better as a commentary on geopolitical anxieties than as a forecast of future events.

For a novice blogger in 2012, it also displays something that has remained characteristic of my later writing: challenging dominant narratives and asking uncomfortable questions rather than merely repeating official positions. That is often what keeps an old article alive long after the news cycle has moved on.

Building Stronger and Sovereign Pakistan

As Pakistan celebrates another Independence Day, it is worth reflecting on what sovereignty means in the twenty-first century. It is no longer measured solely by territorial integrity or military capability. A truly sovereign nation is one that is food secure, economically resilient, financially stable and institutionally strong. It protects its borders while creating opportunities for its people, particularly its youth, whose aspirations will shape the country's future.

Pakistan has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout its history. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, economic pressures and security challenges, the nation has preserved its independence, strengthened its strategic capabilities and developed institutions capable of safeguarding its national interests. These achievements provide a solid foundation for the next stage of national progress.

National security remains indispensable. Pakistan has maintained credible deterrence in a challenging regional environment, ensuring peace through strength. Recent conflicts elsewhere have also underscored an important lesson: military preparedness alone cannot guarantee lasting security. Sustainable national power rests equally on economic vitality, technological advancement, food security and social cohesion.

Pakistan's strategic location offers immense opportunities. Situated at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and China, the country can serve as a vital hub for trade, energy and regional connectivity. Stronger economic cooperation with neighbouring countries, including Afghanistan, Iran and, whenever circumstances permit, India, can unlock new avenues for commerce, investment and shared prosperity.

Energy connectivity remains another strategic opportunity. Projects such as the Iran-Pakistan pipeline and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline have the potential to strengthen Pakistan's energy security while generating transit revenues and promoting regional integration. Advancing such initiatives through constructive diplomacy would contribute to long-term economic stability.

Economic sovereignty is built upon sound fundamentals. Pakistan must continue reducing fiscal and trade imbalances while strengthening public confidence in institutions. Consistent policies, transparent governance and effective implementation are essential to creating an environment where businesses invest with confidence and innovation flourishes.

Food security deserves equal priority. Pakistan possesses fertile land, a hardworking farming community and extensive irrigation infrastructure. Yet recurring shortages of essential commodities highlight the need for modern storage facilities, efficient supply chains and timely policy decisions. Preventing post-harvest losses and improving agricultural productivity will strengthen both national food security and economic stability.

Agriculture as a whole requires renewed attention. Reviving cotton production through high-quality, disease-resistant seed varieties, modern farming practices and greater research support would benefit farmers, strengthen the textile industry and increase export earnings. Likewise, investment in value-added agriculture can transform Pakistan from an exporter of raw commodities into a supplier of high-value products.

Industrial modernization must also become a national priority. Upgrading oil refineries, encouraging technological innovation and expanding manufacturing capacity will reduce import dependence while creating skilled employment. Predictable policies and a stable regulatory environment will encourage both domestic and foreign investment, enabling industries to compete more effectively in global markets.

Pakistan's greatest asset is its people. A young and energetic population, growing digital capabilities, entrepreneurial talent and an expanding technology sector offer tremendous potential. By investing in education, vocational training, research and innovation, Pakistan can build a knowledge-based economy capable of competing in an increasingly technology-driven world.

The country's future prosperity will depend on partnerships between government, private enterprise and academia. Together they can promote productivity, encourage exports, strengthen infrastructure and create employment opportunities for millions of young Pakistanis. Sustainable economic growth will reinforce national resilience and enhance Pakistan's standing in the international community.

As the nation celebrates its independence, the objective should not merely be to preserve sovereignty but to strengthen it. Economic self-reliance, food security, technological advancement, regional connectivity and good governance are not separate goals; together they form the pillars of enduring national strength.

Pakistan has overcome formidable challenges before, and it possesses every ingredient needed to build a more prosperous future. With prudent policies, strong institutions and a shared national purpose, the country can transform its strategic advantages into lasting economic success. That is the path to a stronger, more confident and truly sovereign Pakistan.

*This article was originally published in Pakistan & Gulf Economist

 

 

PSX benchmark index closes almost flat

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure during the week ended on August 13, 2026, primarily due to uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran deal and reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The benchmark index dropped by 1,325 points or 0.7%WoW to close at 180,105 on Thursday. However, market participation improved, with average daily traded volume increasing by 13%WoW to 1.1 billion share.

Oil prices remained elevated. Brent crude crossed US$90/ bbl mark during the week, up from last week’s close of US$84/ bbl, before correcting to current level of US$86/bbl.

Healthy corporate results and positive external and macro developments provided some support to investors’ confidence.

On last Friday, Pakistan signed a mutual defence agreement with Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, extending its earlier pact with the Royal Kingdom.

Fiscal deficit for FY26 was record at a low of 2.6% of GDP, while primary surplus at record high 2.9% of GDP, driven by higher tax revenue and lower markup expenses amid declining interest rates. Consequently, GoP’s debt recorded its lowest annual rise in two decades.

Workers’ remittances increased by 13%YoY to US$3.6 billion during July 2026.

On the sectoral front, auto sales increased by 74%YoY, supported by strong demand.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan to open new gateway for global oil suppliers, 2) FBR hints at withdrawing super tax, 3) Cotton crop satisfactory, rice beats target in Punjab, and 4) Minister calls for auto sector revival to meet US$63 billion export target.

Refinery and Oil & Gas Exploration emerged as top performing sectors, while Power, Fertilizer, and Technology remained laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Banks and Insurance companies with net sell of US$11.2 million and US$6.3 million. Individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$16.3 million.

 

Top performing scrips were: CNERGY, PSEL, GAL, GHNI, and ATRL. On the flip side, laggards included: AICL, HUBC, BOP, TRG, and PAKT.

AKD Securities expects the market to improve on strengthening economic indicators amid easing geo political tensions, along with favorable financial results for the period ending June 20, 2026.

Additionally, a potential US-Iran deal could moderate international oil prices towards pre-conflict levels, further supporting sentiment. Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

The Longer the War, the Weaker America

The bizarre war imposed by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28 has continued for nearly six months, with no decisive outcome in sight. Pakistan-brokered negotiations have so far failed, largely because the objectives of the two sides appear fundamentally contradictory.

The implicit demand from Washington appears to be nothing short of Iran’s unconditional surrender. Tehran, however, has shown no willingness to capitulate. On the contrary, US efforts to bring Iran to its knees has demonstrated Iranian resilience and have transformed it into an even more formidable regional power.

Iran’s ability to inflict significant losses on US military bases in the Middle East and threaten strategic assets of America’s Arab allies appears to have strengthened with the passage of time. This has potentially altered the regional balance of power.

The Strait of Hormuz has consequently become the most critical pressure point. The US naval blockade and restrictions affecting access to the Red Sea cannot be viewed solely as an attempt to squeeze Iran economically. These also threaten the oil exports of Arab Gulf producers, creating an uncomfortable dilemma for America’s regional partners.

There is another dimension that deserves attention - the survival of US shale-oil producers. A prolonged conflict and the resulting disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies can keep crude prices elevated. Many high-cost US shale producers could come under severe financial pressure if oil prices fall below around US$65 a barrel. This creates a possible economic incentive for Washington to avoid a rapid de-escalation.

Iran’s latest demands underline the widening gap between the two sides. Tehran has called for an end to the naval blockade, lifting of sanctions, withdrawal of US forces from the region and compensation for war-related losses. At the same time, Washington insists that diplomatic, economic and military pressure will continue until it secures what it considers an acceptable outcome.

But with every passing day, the strategic equation may be shifting: America is exhausting resources while Iran is gaining resilience, experience and leverage.

The greatest loser of this war could ultimately be the superpower itself. Further escalation risks damaging America’s credibility, encouraging Arab partners to reconsider existing security arrangements and intensifying pressure for the withdrawal of US forces from the region.

A superpower does not lose only when it is defeated on the battlefield; it can also lose when the cost of pursuing victory becomes greater than the benefits of achieving it.

PSX benchmark Index closes the week up 3%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed positive momentum during this past week. The benchmark Index closed the week up 5,336 points or 3%WoW at 181,430. Market participation remained thin with average daily traded volume falling by 29%WoW to 934 million shares.

This, coupled with Iran-Oman talks aimed at restoring the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-conflict position, drove oil prices below US$80/bbl levels, before settling slightly up at US$82/ bbl on Friday. Moreover, robust financial results from the banking sector bolstered sentiments.

Trade deficit for July 2026 reported at US$3.9 billion remained down 15%MoM led by higher exports. The positive sentiments were partially tempered by uncertainties surrounding the Red Sea passageway, and higher-than-anticipated CPI of 9.2%YoY for the month, although inflation came in single digits after 4 months.

Petroleum offtakes rose 23%YoY for July 2026 to 1.5 million tons as compared to the same period last year due to rains and floods, resulting in a lower base, along with tighter enforcement curbing fuel smuggling from Iran.

Cement sector offtakes grew 6%YoY to 4.5 million tons during the month, supported by improved construction activity.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Turkey, Saudi Arabia & Pakistan signed joint defence agreement, 2) OPEC plus raised September oil output by 188,000 bpd, 3) GoP raised PKR882 billion through T-bills auction, 4) GoP also raised PKR474 billion via PIBs sale, and 5) foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose to US$17.0 billion as of Jul 31, 2026.

Top performing sectors included: Jute, Textile Spinning, and Property, while laggards included: Synthetic & Rayon, Leasing Companies, and Sugar & Allied Industries.

Buying by Mutual Funds amounted to US$13.2 million. Net sellers were Banks with US$11.2 million.

Top performing scrips were: GADT, POWER, CNERGY, NPL, and BOP, while laggards included: MEHT, IBFL, PGLC, KTML, and SHFA.

AKD Securities, expects market to improve on strengthening economic indicators amid easing geopolitical tensions, along with favorable financial results for the quarter ended June26.

Additionally, a po­tential US-Iran deal could moderate international oil prices towards pre-conflict levels, further supporting sentiment. Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

According to the brokerage house, the benchmark Index is likely to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Top picks of the brokerage house include OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

What the US has lost in the War with Iran?

Wars are not won solely on the battlefield. They are also judged by whether they achieve their political objectives, strengthen deterrence and reinforce international credibility. By these measures, the United States appears to have emerged from its confrontation with Iran having paid a price that extends well beyond military expenditure.

The first casualty has been credibility. Washington's messaging shifted repeatedly—from demands for Iran's unconditional surrender to calls for de-escalation and negotiations. Such abrupt changes inevitably raise questions among allies and adversaries alike about the consistency of American strategy. A superpower derives much of its influence from predictability; when its objectives appear to change with circumstances, its deterrent value is diminished.

The second loss is strategic. Modern warfare has demonstrated that overwhelming military superiority does not automatically translate into decisive political success. The US has consumed vast quantities of sophisticated and expensive munitions while confronting an adversary capable of sustaining prolonged resistance through indigenous capabilities and asymmetric tactics. Wars of attrition are rarely favourable to even the strongest military powers if political objectives remain elusive.

Perhaps the most significant consequence has been Iran's enhanced regional standing. Despite facing coordinated military pressure and unprecedented economic sanctions, Tehran has demonstrated resilience that has strengthened its image among supporters and compelled regional actors to reassess its military and political influence. Whether one agrees with Iran's policies or not, its ability to withstand sustained pressure has altered regional perceptions.

The conflict has also exposed shortcomings in the strategic calculations of both Washington and Tel Aviv. Military power can destroy infrastructure, but it cannot easily compel political capitulation. Calls for unconditional surrender proved unrealistic against a state that had prepared for prolonged confrontation. Instead of projecting overwhelming dominance, the campaign underscored the limits of military coercion against a determined regional power.

History offers a consistent lesson: every great power eventually reaches a point where reassessing objectives becomes wiser than escalating a costly conflict. Strategic withdrawal is not necessarily a sign of weakness; it can be an act of prudence when the costs of continuing outweigh the prospects of success. Persisting with a flawed strategy merely compounds political, military and economic losses.

The US still possesses unmatched global military and economic capabilities. However, the Iran conflict serves as a reminder that power alone does not guarantee victory. Credibility, coherent strategy and realistic political objectives remain indispensable. When these are absent, even the world's strongest nation risks emerging from war with diminished influence rather than enhanced authority.

PSX benchmark index up 3.0%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed bullish sentiments on Monday and the benchmark index gained 7,241 points, led by a pause in US-Iran strikes, which raised hopes of a diplomatic solution and caused oil prices to fall below US$85/bbl. However, with no lasting resolution during the week, the market remained under pressure over the next three trading sessions, before rebounding on Friday to close the week up 5,073 points or 3.0%WoW at 176,094 points.

Sentiments were further supported by positive June 2026 financial results announced by major companies. Meanwhile, SBP’s status quo in its first FY27 meeting on Monday had little impact on the market, as the decision was largely in line with expectations. Additionally, market participation strengthened, with average daily trading rising by 48.5%WoW to 1.3 billion shares.

On the macroeconomic front, foreign exchange reserves held by SBP decreased to US$17.0 billion as of July 24, 2026. Saudi Arabia also rolled over its US$5 billion deposits for another 3 years, reducing external debt repayments to US$21.5 billion for FY27.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) ECC approves package of export finance incentives, 2) Dar seeks US partnership to double bilateral trade to US$20 billion, 3) PM Shehbaz Sharif approves amendments to Pakistan Oil Refining Policy, 4) Saudi group eyes US$10 billion investment in Pakistan, and 5) Pakistan, Kuwait agree to expand economic ties.

Active sectors were: Jute, Modarabas, and Refinery, while the lagged included: Close-end Mutual Funds, Miscellaneous, and Textile Weaving.

Major buying was recorded by Mutual Funds of US$14.7 million. While sellers were Individuals with US$11.9 million.

Top performing scrips were: AICL, MLCF, PIBTL, KOHC, and IBFL, while laggards included: HGFA, PIOC, PGLC, YOUW, and TPLRF1.

According to AKD Securities, going forward, any positive progress on US-Iran conflict, along with moderating international oil prices towards pre-conflict levels would remain the key focus.

Favorable financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 would support market sentiment in the near term. Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.