Political Swings in the Middle East in 2025

I am inclined to refer to an article by Robin Wright and Peyton Dashiel of Wilson Center. I consider it more like a US narrative. I suggest the readers to read the content dispassionately to understand how situation is likely to unfold in the near future.

In 2025, power dynamics in the Middle East shifted significantly. Sunni factions gained influence while Shiite groups tied to Iran weakened. Political turmoil, economic struggles, and escalating conflicts—especially between Israel and Iran—exacerbated regional instability, hampering diplomacy, development, and prospects for long-term peace.

Regional Shifts and Rising Conflicts

The region faced an unprecedented level of crises, with violence escalating in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, and Yemen. The Sunni resurgence saw Islamist parties gaining political ground in Jordan and Syria, where a military coup toppled the Assad regime. Iran’s influence waned, with its proxy militias suffering major losses due to Israeli and US airstrikes. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia bolstered its regional dominance, hosting US-Russia talks on Ukraine and offering to mediate US-Iran negotiations.

Conflicts in Gaza and the Red Sea intensified. Israel’s war with Hamas continued, with peace efforts stalling. Hostilities between Israel and Iran escalated, with both nations engaging in direct attacks. Houthi rebels in Yemen disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea, causing a sharp decline in Suez Canal traffic.

Internal Political Shifts

In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost major local elections in 2024, signaling a shift in public sentiment. The government’s arrest of opposition figure Ekrem İmamoğlu in March 2025 further fueled tensions.

In Iran, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian won the presidency, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with theocratic rule.

Tunisian President Kais Saied intensified crackdowns on opposition, extending the prison sentence of Ennahdha leader Rachid Ghannouchi.

Syria’s Assad regime collapsed after more than 70 years in power. Sunni militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control, igniting sectarian clashes with Alawites. While Iran distanced itself from its traditional proxies, its Supreme Leader insisted Tehran did not rely on foreign militias.

Economic and Diplomatic Fallout

Economic crises deepened, with the World Bank warning of long-term stagnation. Diplomatic efforts faltered as regional rivalries intensified, particularly between Israel and Iran. With increasing violence and political upheaval, the path to stability in the Middle East remained highly uncertain.

Arabs do not go beyond lip service to Gazans

The issue of why many Arab governments seem to offer only "lip service" in support of Gaza is complex and rooted in a mix of political, economic, and geopolitical factors. Let us explore the likely reasons.

Geopolitical Constraints

US Influence:

Many Arab nations, especially those with close ties to the West (like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan), rely heavily on the US support that include aid, security, and diplomatic backing. Directly confronting Israel — a key US ally — risks straining these relationships.

Normalization Deals:

Countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan have signed normalization agreements with Israel (the Abraham Accords). These agreements are tied to economic and strategic benefits, making it costly to take aggressive action against Israel.

Iran Factor:

Some Arab governments, especially Sunni-majority have been brain washed to see Iran — which supports Hamas and Hezbollah — as a bigger regional threat than Israel. This complicates their stance on Gaza.

Mutual Interests

Economic Dependence:

Many Arab economies are tightly integrated with Western financial systems or rely on international trade and investments that could suffer if they provoke Israel’s allies.

Internal Stability:

Countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon — which have large Palestinian refugee populations — are already facing economic hardship. Escalating tensions could lead to social unrest, which their governments are eager to avoid.

Regime Survival

Authoritarian Control:

Many Arab leaders prioritize regime survival over regional solidarity. Supporting Gaza too aggressively could embolden opposition groups within their own countries — especially Islamist movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, which many Arab governments suppress.

Government Policy:

While Arab populations broadly support Palestine, authoritarian governments often control protests, media narratives, and activism to prevent mass uprisings. They may issue strong statements to appease the public but avoid substantive actions.

Egypt-Gaza Dynamic

Rafah Border:

Egypt controls the only non-Israeli border with Gaza. While Egypt has expressed solidarity, it's wary of fully opening the Rafah crossing due to: 1) security concerns (fear of extremist infiltration), 2) pressure from Israel and the US to control the flow of people and goods and 3) Hamas ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt’s government opposes.

Breaking Status quo

For Arab governments to go beyond rhetoric, they need: 1) stronger, unified regional leadership — which is currently fractured, 2) a major shift in global alliances, reduced US influence or developing better and dependable relations with other super powers like China and Russia and 3) internal pressures that become uncontainable — widespread, sustained protests or leadership changes driven by popular demands.

 

Israeli Plan for Full Reoccupation of Gaza

Israel has formulated a new plan to fully reoccupy the Gaza Strip, according to a report published Monday by the Financial Times, citing senior Israeli officials. If implemented, this would mark the first time Israel reasserts full control over Gaza since its 2005 unilateral withdrawal.

The proposed strategy, developed by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, reportedly calls for the mobilization of multiple IDF combat divisions to enter the Strip with the aim of decisively dismantling Hamas and restoring security control. The report indicates that the plan has backing from members of Israel’s security leadership and political right, but has not yet been approved by the security cabinet.

Two Israeli officials noted that the return of Donald Trump to White House was a key factor in reviving such a bold plan. The current US administration has given stronger public support for Israel’s military objectives, signaling a window of opportunity for Israel to reshape Gaza’s future governance.

In addition to regaining military control, Israel would reportedly assume full authority over humanitarian aid distribution within the Strip. This would include managing aid flows and monitoring nutritional requirements part of a broader plan to ensure that civilians receive assistance while Hamas is denied access to resources.

Hamas, a US-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, continues to operate within civilian infrastructure and impede aid access. Israel’s plan to oversee aid directly is intended to sever the terror group’s ability to manipulate humanitarian efforts.

 

Undeclared US-Iran war and role of Israel

The tension between the United States and Iranian clerics — especially the ruling ones — is rooted in a mix of historical events, ideological differences, and geopolitical conflicts. To understand the prevailing situation one has to peep into the history.

Iranian Revolution of 1979

Let us begin with the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The US had a strong alliance with Iran’s Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi), who promoted Western-friendly policies. After Shah was overthrown, Ayatollah Khomeini established the Islamic Republic, rejecting Western influence and terming the US the "Great Satan." During the US embassy hostage crisis (1979-1981), 52 Americans were held captive for 444 days.

Ideological Clash

The Western media is never tired of claiming that Iran’s clerical leadership promotes anti-Western, anti-imperialist, and anti-Israel sentiments. This is termed directly challenging the US hegemony in the region.

The US supports secular governance and democracy, while Iran's leadership is based on Velayat-e Faqih (rule of the Islamic jurist), blending religion and politics in a way that challenges Western norms.

Regional Power Struggle

The United States considers Iran the biggest challenger of its hegemony in the MENA. The US classifies the axis of resistance as terrorist organizations and alleges that Iran supports militant groups like Hezbollah and Houthi rebels. Over the years the US has been playing the mantra, “Iran is a bigger threat for Saudi Arabia as compared to Iran” and promoting animosity among the two countries. This enabled the US to sell lethal weapons worth billions of dollars to Saudi Arabia.

Nuclear Tensions

Despite Iran’s repeated assurances that its nuclear program is peaceful, the US has been propagating that Iran is busy in developing nuclear weapons to destabilize the region. The 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) temporarily eased tensions, but Trump withdrew from it in 2018, leading to renewed sanctions and hostilities.

Human Rights and Freedom

The US has been persistently accusing Iran’s clerical leadership for suppressing protests, women’s rights violations, censorship, and political imprisonments — especially after events like the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests.

In short, the US sees Iranian clerics as anti-Western, oppressive, and destabilizing, while the clerics view the US as imperialist and morally corrupt. It is believed that after the US Embassy debacle, the world super power decided not enter into direct confrontation with Iran. The US, found a proxy, Israel.

Strategic Partnership with Israel

The US sees Israel as its closest ally in the Middle East — a stable, technologically advanced, and militarily strong partner in a region filled with rival powers. Israel shares the US goal of curbing Iranian influence, especially because Iran funds groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which directly threaten Israel.

Iran as a Regional Threat

The US and Israel both view Iran’s leadership as destabilizing due to Iranian support for militant proxies (Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria). Anti-Israel rhetoric — Iran’s leaders have repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction. Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which both nations see as a potential existential threat to Israel and a power-shifting game changer in the region.

Covert Israeli Operations

Israel often conducts covert strikes on Iranian targets — like the assassination of nuclear scientists or cyberattacks. This allows the US to distance itself publicly while still supporting Israeli actions behind the scenes (financial aid, intelligence sharing, advanced weaponry).

 Funding and Military Aid

The US provides Israel with $3.8 billion annually in military aid, ensuring Israel maintains a "Qualitative Military Edge" over regional adversaries, particularly Iran. This enables Israel to act as a forward line of defense without direct US military involvement.

Avoiding a Full-Scale War

Direct US conflict with Iran could escalate into a massive regional war — something the US wants to avoid after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. By using Israel and occasionally other regional allies to contain Iran, the US avoids deploying troops while still advancing its strategic goals.

Balancing Regional Power

Iran’s influence stretches from Tehran to Beirut (the so-called "Shia Crescent"). The US and Israel work to disrupt this expansion, particularly in Syria (where Iran supported Assad) and Lebanon (via Hezbollah). Recent airstrikes on Iranian arms shipments and proxy bases — often attributed to Israel — are part of this containment strategy.

The Conclusion

The US doesn’t officially call Israel a proxy, but the relationship functions that way in practice. Israel handles the dirty work, and the US provides diplomatic cover, weapons, and money. This setup gives the US strategic flexibility without the cost and backlash of another Middle Eastern war.

Lebanese president condemns Israeli airstrikes

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Saturday condemned any attempts to drag Lebanon back into a cycle of violence, following an Israeli airstrike campaign on villages and towns in southern Lebanon in response to a rocket attack on the Israeli settlement of Metula.

The strike on Metula marked the first major cross-border attack since the November 2024 ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. No group has claimed responsibility for the rocket launch.

“What occurred today in the south, and what has been happening there since February 18, regarding the failure to adhere to the precise terms of the ceasefire agreement, constitutes an ongoing aggression against Lebanon,” Aoun said in a statement, warning it could derail the national rescue plan agreed upon by Lebanese stakeholders.

He called on Lebanon’s allies to remain vigilant against “what is being plotted against Lebanon by multiple hostile parties,” and urged the monitoring committee established under the ceasefire, along with the Lebanese army, to take urgent steps to prevent further escalation.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam also issued a warning Saturday against further military escalation on the southern border, stressing the potential consequences of renewed hostilities.

“The continuation of hostilities could lead to a new war that would only bring destruction and suffering to the Lebanese people,” Salam said.

He held phone calls with Defense Minister Michel Mounir and UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, stressing that only the Lebanese state has the authority to declare war or peace.

Salam also criticized Israel for continuing to occupy Lebanese territory in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and urged the international community to pressure Israel to fully withdraw from all occupied areas.Earlier in the day, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that any further rocket fire from Lebanon would prompt Israeli strikes on Beirut, escalating concerns of a return to full-scale conflict.

Since the ceasefire took effect in November, Lebanese officials report nearly 1,100 Israeli violations, resulting in at least 85 deaths and over 280 injuries.

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Israel was expected to fully withdraw from southern Lebanese border areas by January 26, but the deadline was extended to February 18 due to non-compliance. Israel reportedly maintains military presence at five border outposts.

Iran Nuclear Program: West’s Double Standards

The ongoing debate over Iran’s nuclear program has resurfaced, with a Wall Street Journal piece urging Iran’s complete nuclear disarmament. It likens Iran to South Africa’s voluntary disarmament and Libya’s renouncement of nuclear ambitions, arguing that only pressure — sanctions, military threats, and economic isolation — can force compliance. However, this argument overlooks historical context, Western double standards, and the consequences of past interference in West Asia.

Hypocrisy in Disarmament Demands

Comparing Iran to South Africa and Libya is misleading. South Africa dismantled its program during a peaceful transition from apartheid, not under external pressure. Libya abandoned its efforts after the US invaded Iraq in 2003 — a move that didn’t prevent Libya’s eventual collapse under Western intervention. Iran, aware of this history, has little reason to believe unilateral disarmament would ensure its security.

Iran, a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), allows International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections. In contrast, Israel, which possesses nuclear weapons, hasn’t signed the NPT or permitted inspections — yet faces no calls to disarm. If non-proliferation were truly the goal, the same standards would apply to all nations, not just US adversaries.

Broken Agreements and Misleading Narratives

Iran adhered to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), verified by the IAEA, until the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018, reimposing sanctions. Iran continued compliance, hoping European nations would uphold the deal, reducing commitments only after it became clear sanctions would persist. The portrayal of Iran as the party breaking agreements is a distortion of events.

Sanctions: Economic Warfare, Not Diplomacy

Sanctions have hurt ordinary Iranians without forcing government collapse or nuclear abandonment. Iran’s economy, despite hardships, has adapted through domestic industries and alliances with China and Russia. Economic warfare often fuels national resilience, not surrender.

Real Source of Instability

The issue isn’t Iran’s nuclear program — it’s Western intervention and support for authoritarian regimes to maintain US-Israeli military dominance. Iran remains open to dialogue but not likely to accept one-sided deals demanding surrender. True diplomacy requires mutual respect, not coercion — the only path to a fair, lasting peace.

Backed by Trump, Israel Kills 400 Gazans

According to Reuters, Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza and killed more than 400 people on Tuesday, ending weeks of relative calm after talks to secure a permanent ceasefire stalled.

Israel and Hamas each accused the other of breaching the truce, which had broadly held since January, offering respite from war for the 2 million inhabitants of Gaza, where most buildings have been reduced to rubble.

Hamas, which still holds 59 of the 250 or so hostages Israel says the group seized in its October 7, 2023 attack, accused Israel of jeopardising efforts by mediators to negotiate a permanent deal to end the fighting, but the group made no threat of retaliation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered strikes because Hamas had rejected proposals to secure a ceasefire extension during faltering talks.

"Israel will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength," the prime minister's office said in a statement.

The strikes hit houses and tent encampments from the north to the south of the Gaza Strip, and Israeli tanks shelled from across the border line, witnesses said.

"It was a night of hell. It felt like the first days of the war," said Rabiha Jamal, 65, a mother of five from Gaza City.

Israel's sudden onslaught overwhelmed Gaza hospitals already reeling from weeks of an aid blockade, medics said, as ambulances ferried in hundreds of badly injured survivors.

Families in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip and eastern areas of Khan Younis in the south fled their homes, some on foot, others in cars or rickshaws, carrying some of their belongings after the Israeli military issued evacuation orders warning the areas were "dangerous combat zones".

Hours after the IDF renewed the strikes, Hamas hasn't managed to fire a single rocket into Israel.

"This return to violence does not come as a surprise, however," said Sara Haghdoosti, executive director of the US-based advocacy group Win Without War.

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has, from the beginning, signaled his intention to abandon the cease-fire process before it could become a lasting peace. From before his first day in office,

President Trump has endorsed the Netanyahu government's return to war. Indeed, we fear that Trump's vile plan for ethnic cleansing in Gaza, so welcomed by the far-right members of Netanyahu's government, will become the blueprint for the war as it goes forward."

 

Who is the terrorist: United States or Yemen?

According to media reports, the death toll from Saturday night’s joint airstrikes by United Stat and Britain on multiple Yemeni cities has risen to 31, with 101 others injured, mostly women and children.

Anis Al-Asbahi, the ministry’s spokesperson stated, “The massacres committed by the US aggression targeting civilian and residential areas in Sanaa, Saada, Al-Bayda, and Rada’a on Saturday resulted in 132 civilian casualties, including 31 martyrs and 101 wounded, mostly children and women.”

He added that the figures remain preliminary, as search efforts continue to recover victims following a series of US airstrikes targeting civilian sites.

Asbahi condemned the attacks, calling them a “full-fledged war crime” and a “blatant violation of all international laws and conventions.”

On Saturday, Yemen had initially reported that 24 people were killed and 23 others wounded in the strikes.

The Yemen had previously warned Israel on March 07 to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza within four days or face renewed maritime operations against Israeli-linked vessels.

The US launched the latest airstrikes on Yemen as President Donald Trump warned that “hell will rain down” if the group continued attacks on Red Sea shipping.

Since late 2023, Yemen has targeted Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea using missiles and drones, citing solidarity with Gaza.

The attacks were halted when a Gaza ceasefire was declared in January between Israel and Hamas but later threatened to resume operations when Israel blocked all aid into Gaza on March 02.

United States: The True Godfather of Terrorism

Once again, Washington plays its old game: accusing others of terrorism while fueling it to serve its interests. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent statements in Al-Quds with Benjamin Netanyahu are part of a longstanding American policy aimed at hiding its role in destabilizing West Asia through support for terrorist groups.

This isn’t just an accusation from US rivals—it’s a reality acknowledged by American officials. In 2016, Donald Trump declared, “Obama is the founder of ISIS, and Clinton is his co-founder,” a statement backed by evidence.

During the Syrian crisis, the CIA funneled financial and logistical aid to extremist groups under the pretext of supporting “moderate opposition.” Reports from The Washington Post repeatedly exposed this strategy. John Kerry, in a leaked recording, admitted the US allowed ISIS to grow in Syria, hoping to pressure Damascus into concessions.

In 2019, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard revealed the US was directly arming al-Qaeda in Syria. Former Senator Richard Black recently reaffirmed this, exposing continued US backing of groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS. United Nations reports over the last decade confirm US support for Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch) via Turkey and Qatar to overthrow Assad.

Rubio talks about Syrian “instability” while ignoring US backing for Abu Mohammed al-Julani, leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra). Once on America’s terrorist list, al-Julani now controls Syria’s northwest with American support, rebranded as a "moderate opposition leader."

US media, like PBS, have even given him a platform, whitewashing his extremist history. A RAND Corporation report exposed that Washington considers him a “potential partner” — a shocking display of double standards. Al-Julani, now known as Ahmad al-Sharaa, orchestrated massacres of over 22,000 Alawites along Syria’s coast. Instead of facing justice, he receives political and media backing from the US, ensuring Syria remains unstable and under Western influence.

Rubio’s remarks can’t be separated from unwavering US support for Israel, which engages in daily state terrorism. Since the latest Gaza aggression began, Israeli forces have killed tens of thousands of civilians, including children, while destroying hospitals and schools — all with Washington’s cover.

The US shields Israel in the UN, using its veto to block resolutions condemning war crimes, making it complicit. Washington labels groups resisting Zionist occupation as “terrorists” while backing extremist factions in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, revealing its hypocrisy.

The US narrative — branding Iran a “terror sponsor” for supporting Palestinian and Lebanese resistance — is bankrupt. Is defending one’s homeland terrorism? Washington’s twisted equation labels those who fight occupation as “terrorists” and those enabling occupation as “defenders of democracy.”

This propaganda no longer fools the world. The Zionist entity’s crimes are broadcast live, and America’s ties to the terrorists it claims to fight are increasingly exposed.

If Rubio seeks the “greatest source of instability,” he needn’t look far — Washington itself fuels terrorism while pretending to oppose it. History won’t forget who created terrorism, nor will people forget who stood for justice and who conspired against them.

US Attack on Yemen May Spark War With Iran

In a dramatic escalation of Middle Eastern tensions, US President Donald Trump has ordered decisive military strikes against Houthi forces in Yemen. He declared that the United States would deploy overwhelming lethal force until its strategic objectives were achieved.

Trump justified the campaign by accusing the Houthis of engaging in piracy, violence, and terrorism against American and allied ships, aircraft, and drones in the region. He vowed that no terrorist group would be allowed to interfere with global shipping routes, asserting that American commercial and naval vessels must sail freely through international waterways without fear of attack.

Western media reports have extensively covered the Houthis’ ongoing attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea. It is alleged that the Houthis are backed by Iran. They claim their actions are a direct response to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. They argue that their attacks are acts of solidarity with Palestinians suffering under Israeli bombardment. The group previously stated they would halt hostilities in the Red Sea if Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas.

Trump’s rhetoric left no room for negotiation. "Support for the Houthi terrorists must end immediately," he declared. "Do not threaten the American people, their President, or worldwide shipping lanes. If you do, beware, because America will hold you fully accountable, and we won’t be nice about it."

His statements signaled a stark warning to regional powers, particularly Iran, which has long been accused of arming and financing the Houthis.

The strikes on Yemen are increasingly viewed not just as an attack on the Houthis, but as the opening of a larger, more dangerous proxy war between the United States and Iran.

While the Houthis themselves are a localized force, their ties to Tehran position them as a key player in the broader struggle for influence across the Middle East.

Iran insists its nuclear program remains peaceful, yet tensions with Washington and its regional ally, Israel, continue to escalate.

Iran’s support for groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various militias in Iraq and Syria are seen by Western powers as efforts to project power and undermine US and Israeli interests.

International condemnation of Israel’s military actions in Gaza continues to grow, with many accusing the country of committing genocide against Palestinians.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has fueled anger across the Middle East, amplifying support for groups like the Houthis who present themselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause.

This complex web of conflicts — Israel’s actions in Gaza, Iran’s regional influence, and US intervention — is increasingly pulling global powers into a dangerous confrontation.

Trump’s military stance is not likely to secure shipping routes in the short term, but it risks inflaming an already volatile region.

With Iran’s deep-rooted influence in Yemen and beyond, the US may find itself drawn further into an extended, unpredictable conflict — one with consequences that could reverberate far beyond the Middle East.

Trump launches strikes against Houthis

US President Donald Trump launched military strikes against Yemen's Houthis on Saturday over the group's attacks against Red Sea shipping, warning "hell will rain down upon you" if the Houthis do not abandon their campaign, reports Reuters.

Trump also warned Iran, the Houthis' main backer, that it needed to immediately halt support to the group. He said if Iran threatened the United States "America will hold you fully accountable and, we won’t be nice about it!"

At least nine civilians were killed and nine injured in US strikes on Yemen's Sanaa, according to the Houthi-run health ministry.

Residents in Sanaa said the strikes hit a building in a stronghold of the militant Houthi group.

"The explosions were violent and shook the neighborhood like an earthquake. They terrified our women and children," one of the residents, who gave his name as Abdullah Yahia, told Reuters.

The Houthis launched more than 100 attacks targeting shipping from November 2023, saying they were in solidarity with Palestinians over Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza. During that period, the group sank two vessels, seized another and killed at least four seafarers in an offensive that disrupted global shipping, forcing firms to re-route to longer and more expensive journeys around southern Africa.

The previous US administration of President Joe Biden had sought to degrade the Houthis ability to attack vessels off its coast but limited the US actions.

US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say Trump has authorized a more aggressive approach, which appeared to match his rhetoric on Saturday.

"The Houthi attack on American vessels will not be tolerated. We will use overwhelming lethal force until we have achieved our objective," Trump wrote.

The attack marks the first strikes to hit Yemen since the Gaza ceasefire deal took effect in January, this year.

It also came a few days after the Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli ships passing through the Red and Arabian seas, the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden, ending a period of relative calm starting in January with the Gaza ceasefire.

 

US imposes sanctions on Iranian oil minister

According to Reuters, the United States imposed sanctions on Thursday on Iran's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and some Hong Kong-flagged vessels that are part of a shadow fleet that helps disguise Iranian oil shipments.

President Donald Trump re-imposed a maximum pressure policy on Iran in February that includes efforts to drive its oil exports to zero in order to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and funding militant groups.

It was alleged that Paknejad oversees the export of tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil and has allocated billions of dollars’ worth of oil to Iran’s armed forces for export.

“The Iranian regime continues to use the proceeds from the nation’s vast oil resources to advance its narrow, alarming self-interests at the expense of the Iranian people,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

“Treasury will fight and disrupt any attempts by the regime to fund its destabilizing activities and further its dangerous agenda.”

Treasury also designated owners or operators of vessels that have delivered Iranian oil to China or lifted it from storage there, it said. Those were in multiple jurisdictions, including India and China, it said.

Iran's military relies on a vast shadow fleet of ships to disguise shipments of oil worth billions of dollars to China.

Thursday's designated vessels include the Hong Kong-flagged Peace Hill and its owner Hong Kong Heshun Transportation Trading Limited, the Iran-flagged Polaris 1, the Seychelles-registered Fallon Shipping Company Ltd, and the Liberia-registered Itaugua Services Inc.

It also designated the Panama-flagged Corona Fun, which it said has manipulated automatic identification systems to disguise efforts to ship Iranian oil, and the San Marino-flagged Seasky, for transporting fuel oil on behalf of Iran's national oil company to China.

The sanctions block US assets of the designated entities and prohibit Americans from engaging in any transactions with them.

The US Department of State is designating three entities and three vessels as blocked property, it said.

 

Lebanon told to normalize relations with Israel

Following her previous provocative statement in Beirut that Hezbollah should have no share in the government, Morgan Ortagus, the deputy presidential special envoy to the Middle East, has said the outcome of current events is ultimately a “peace” agreement between Beirut and Tel Aviv.

In an exclusive interview with the Lebanese Al-Jadeed TV channel, Ortagus said the current goal is limited to launching diplomatic negotiations between three diplomatic working groups.

According to Ortagus, the goal of these negotiations is to address pressing issues such as the release of Lebanese prisoners, determining the fate of sites occupied by Israel, and demarcating the land border, which do not require diplomatic working groups and can be secured by the Supervisory Committee for the Implementation of Resolution 1701.

Regarding the Lebanese prisoners kidnapped by the Israeli enemy, there is no point in negotiation, as Lebanon has no Israeli prisoners to negotiate over.

Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's special envoy, had previously noted Washington’s urgency in launching peace negotiations with both Lebanon and Syria. He had also expressed optimism about the possibility of Riyadh joining Abraham Accords.

Wittkoff firmly stated that the political transformations in the region could extend to Lebanon.

Prior to the election of Lebanon’s president and in the midst of the US-led Israeli aggression on Lebanon during September and November, the American “surveillance den” (embassy) in Beirut had interrogated several candidates regarding their positions on normalization with the Israeli occupation regime and weapons in possession of the Hezbollah resistance movement.

Lisa Johnson, the US ambassador to Beirut, informed prominent Lebanese figures that they must be prepared to secure a comprehensive and permanent solution with Tel Aviv.

The American witch frequently claimed that Hezbollah had – militarily and politically – collapsed and was barely able to manage its own affairs, and would therefore be unable to rebuild what her hostile country had destroyed.

As Washington is quite sure that there are just a few independent Lebanese officials who would reject American dictates, the White House will relentlessly go ahead with its imperialist and racist agenda.

Obviously, Washington has limited the mandate of the UN’s five-member committee to monitor Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty, while the committee repeatedly claims that Israeli procedures are in response to the violations by Hezbollah, which has not handed over its military arsenal or the coordinates of its military installations!

Accordingly, the shameful silence of Lebanon has made it easier for Washington to immediately jump to the stage of forming diplomatic working groups, as it claims.

These diplomatic working groups require violating the Lebanese constitution, which criminalizes any direct meeting between Lebanese diplomats and those from the Israeli colonial entity!

Naturally, the Lebanese leaders in power today must learn a lesson from the disastrous consequences of normalization for Egypt, Jordan, and even the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. At the very least, they must learn a lesson from what is happening in neighboring Syria.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

Muslim unity necessary to counter forced displacement of Palestinians

The foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia have emphasized the urgent need for unity within the Muslim world to counter Israel’s efforts to forcibly displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, reports Tehran Times.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, on the sidelines of an extraordinary session of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah on Friday. 

The two top diplomats reaffirmed the necessity for the Islamic world to remain focused on the Palestinian cause and resist attempts to erase Palestine through mass displacement.  

During their talks, Araghchi and Faisal bin Farhan also assessed the progress of Iran-Saudi relations and expressed their nations' commitment to strengthening diplomatic, economic, and strategic ties in accordance with the vision of their respective leaders.  

Araghchi had arrived in Jeddah a day earlier to participate in the high-stakes OIC meeting, which was convened to address Israel’s military actions in Gaza and its broader campaign against Palestinians.  

A key topic of discussion was a recent proposal by US President Donald Trump, suggesting that Washington, could take control of Gaza and transform it into "Riviera of West Asia." The proposal was widely condemned by Arab and Islamic nations.  

On the sidelines of the OIC meeting, Araghchi also met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The two officials addressed the broader challenges facing the Muslim world, particularly Israel’s ongoing aggression in Gaza and the occupation of the West Bank.

Araghchi expressed deep concern over the deteriorating security situation in Syria, where militant groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have gained control. He warned that instability in Syria would only serve Israeli interests and provide a breeding ground for terrorist organizations.

Fidan echoed these concerns and reaffirmed Turkey’s commitment to supporting Palestinian rights, emphasizing the collective responsibility of Islamic nations to resist Israeli expansionism.  

In addition to Saudi and Turkish officials, Araghchi held separate meetings with foreign ministers from Tunisia, Egypt, and Oman, discussing regional developments and the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza.  

During his meeting with Tunisian Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Nafti, both sides underscored their shared stance in advocating for Palestinian self-determination and denouncing Israel’s apartheid policies. They called for collective action among Islamic nations to prevent further displacement of Palestinians and to hold Israel accountable for its war crimes.  

Similarly, in discussions with Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi, both diplomats highlighted the strong ties between Tehran and Muscat. Busaidi reiterated Oman’s commitment to the Palestinian cause and emphasized the need for regional cooperation to support Palestinian sovereignty. Araghchi affirmed Iran’s willingness to expand its partnership with Oman across various sectors.  

In his talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, the Iranian diplomat rejected any initiative that involves the forced removal of Palestinians from Gaza, denouncing it as an act of ethnic cleansing. Both ministers stressed the need for continued solidarity within the Muslim world and the broader international community to support the Palestinian people and aid in Gaza’s reconstruction.  

 

US rejects alternate Gaza reconstruction plan

According to Saudi Gazette, the Trump administration has rejected a long-awaited plan for the reconstruction of Gaza endorsed by Arab leaders, saying the president stands by his own vision which includes expelling the territory’s Palestinian residents and transforming it into a “riviera” owned by the United States.

“The current proposal does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance,” National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement Tuesday night.

“President Trump stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas. We look forward to further talks to bring peace and prosperity to the region.”

The postwar plan for the Gaza Strip, which was proposed by Egypt and calls for Hamas to cede power to an interim administration until a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) can assume control, would allow its roughly 2 million Palestinians to remain, in contrast to Trump’s proposal.

Speaking in Cairo, PA President Mahmoud Abbas pledged that general elections will be held in the West Bank, Gaza and occupied East Jerusalem for the first time in nearly two decades “if circumstances are suitable.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still refuses to say what he envisions for Gaza’s post-war future, except to say that he endorses Trump’s plan for “a different Gaza.” And he thinks neither the PA nor Hamas should govern Gaza.

The US$53 billion proposal by Arab nations calls for rebuilding Gaza by 2030. The first phase calls for starting the removal of unexploded ordnance and clearing more than 50 million tons of rubble left by Israel’s bombardment and military offensives.

CNN obtained a copy of the document, which lays out an ambitious plan to develop shopping malls, an international convention center and even an airport within five years. It also aims to attract tourists by building resorts and enhancing the enclave’s Mediterranean coast.

It also acknowledges the difficulties that could be faced in disarming militants in the Gaza Strip.

“It is something that can be dealt with, and even ended forever, only if its causes are removed through a clear horizon and a credible political process,” it says.

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Tuesday that the group’s arms were non-negotiable.

“The weapon of the resistance is a red line, and it is not negotiable,” he said. “We will not accept (any deal) to trade it for reconstruction or the entry of aid.”

Hamas has sent mixed signals about its future in Gaza in recent weeks. Analysts have said that while the group has shown that it is willing to discuss demilitarization as an end goal of a peace process, it is keen not to allow it to become a prerequisite of the process.

Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, said last month that the group will not disarm and may even grow after the war in Gaza.

Last week, Hamas official Husam Badran said that the group was willing to step aside from governing Gaza.

“Our only condition is for this to be an internal Palestinian matter – we will not allow any regional or international party to get involved,” he told Al Arabiya. “As long as there is national consensus, Hamas will not be involved in the governance.”

Israel has blocked the entry of food, fuel, medicine and other supplies to Gaza to pressure Hamas to accept the agreement and has warned of additional consequences, raising fears of a return to fighting.

The suspension of aid drew widespread criticism, with human rights groups saying that it violated Israel’s obligations as an occupying power under international law.

Speaking at the summit announcing the plan for Gaza’s future, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi said there would be no “true peace” without the establishment of the Palestinian state.

Israel has vowed to maintain open-ended security control over both Gaza and the West Bank, which it captured in the 1967 Mideast war and which Palestinians want for their future state. Israel’s government and most of its political class are opposed to Palestinian statehood.

 

Israel: Eyal Zamir new IDF Chief

According to media reports, Eyal Zamir replaced Herzi Halevi as IDF chief of staff on Wednesday, also being promoted to lieutenant general, in the ceremony led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and in the presence of all of the leaders of the defense establishment.

Along with the entire IDF high command, Mossad Director David Barnea and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar were also in attendance, as was CENTCOM chief Michael Kurilla.

Netanyahu opened the speech thanking Kurilla, saying, “Your relationship with General Herzi Halevi was a tangible asset to our national security.”

“Until a few generations ago, we were pushed from place to place like straw in the wind,” but we returned our control of our fate, and “our history is [framed as] before the establishment of the IDF and after it. This doesn’t mean our enemies can’t attack us. We saw this on October 07, 2023 but unlike before we can” take the war to them, said the prime minister.

Netanyahu promised Israel would return all of the hostages and end Hamas’s military and political rule.

Next, he said that although Zamir had lost the race for IDF chief twice, that the third time was a charm and “the time of Zamir.”

He said that he had been very impressed by Zamir’s capabilities as his military secretary, in particular his ability to coordinate between the defense and political echelons.

The prime minister also complimented Zamir in his work at the defense ministry in helping Israel to become more independent in producing more of its own weaponry.

 

Gazans face tough choice, stay or go away

The level of destruction in Jabalia when viewed from the air is truly astonishing. A Hiroshima-like wasteland stretches as far as the eye can see. The mangled carcasses of buildings dot the churned-up landscape, some leaning at crazy angles.

Great undulating waves of rubble make it all but impossible to make out the geography of this once bustling, tightly packed refugee camp. And yet, as a drone camera flies over the wreckage, it picks out splashes of blue and white where small tent camps have been set up in patches of open ground.

And figures, clambering over broken buildings, moving along streets of dirt, where food markets are springing up under tin roofs and canvas awnings. Children using a collapsed roof as a slide. After more than six weeks of Gaza's fragile ceasefire, Jabalia is slowly coming back to life.

In the neighborhood of al-Qasasib, Nabil has returned to a four-story house that's somehow still standing, even if it lacks windows, doors and -- in some places -- walls. He and his relatives have made crude balconies out of wooden pallets and strung-up tarpaulin to keep out the elements.

"Look at the destruction," he says as he surveys Jabalia's ocean of ruins from a gaping upper floor.

"They want us to leave without rebuilding it? How can we leave? The least we can do is rebuild it for our children."

To cook a meal, Nabil lights a fire on the bare staircase, stoking it carefully with pieces of torn-up cardboard.

On another floor, Laila Ahmed Okasha washes up in a sink where the tap ran dry months ago. "There's no water, electricity or sewage," she says. "If we need water, we have to go to a far place to fill up buckets."

She says she cried when she came back to the house and found it wrecked. She blames Israel and Hamas for destroying the world she once knew. "Both of them are responsible," she says. "We had a decent, comfortable life."

Soon after the war began in October 2023, Israel told Palestinians in the northern part of the Gaza Strip – including Jabalia – to move south for their own safety. Hundreds of thousands of people heeded the warning, but many stayed, determined to ride out the war.

Laila and her husband Marwan clung on until October last year, when the Israeli military reinvaded Jabalia, saying Hamas had reconstituted fighting units inside the camp's narrow streets.

After two months of sheltering in nearby Shati camp, Leila and Marwan returned to find Jabalia almost unrecognizable.

"When we came back and saw how it was destroyed, I didn't want to stay here anymore," Marwan says. "I had a wonderful life, but now it's a hell. If I have the chance to leave, I'll go. I won't stay one more minute."

Stay or go? The future of Gaza's civilian population is now the subject of international debate.

In February, Donald Trump suggested that the US should take over Gaza and that nearly two million Palestinian residents should leave, possibly for good.

Faced with international outrage and fierce opposition from Arab leaders, Trump has subsequently appeared to back away from the plan, saying he recommended it but would not force it on anyone.

In the meantime, Egypt has led Arab efforts to come up with a viable alternative, to be presented at an emergency Arab summit in Cairo on Tuesday.

Crucially, it says the Palestinian population should remain inside Gaza while the area is reconstructed.

Donald Trump's intervention has brought out Gaza's famously stubborn side. "If Trump wants to make us leave, I'll stay in Gaza," Laila says. "I want to travel on my own free will. I won't leave because of him."

Across the way sits a nine-story yellow block of flats so spectacularly damaged it's hard to believe it hasn't collapsed.

The upper floors have caved in entirely, threatening the rest. In time, it will surely have to be demolished, but for now it's home to yet more families. There are sheets in the windows and washing hanging to dry in the late winter sunshine.

Most incongruously of all, outside a makeshift plastic doorway on a corner of the ground floor, next to piles of rubble and rubbish, stands a headless mannequin, wearing a wedding gown. It's Sanaa Abu Ishbak's dress shop.

The 45-year-old seamstress, mother of 11, set up the business two years before the war but had to abandon it when she fled south in November 2023.

She came back as soon as the ceasefire was announced. With her husband and daughters, she's been busy clearing debris from the shop, arranging dresses on hangers and getting ready for business. "I love Jabalia camp," she says, "and I won't leave it till I die."

Sanaa and Laila seem equally determined to stay put if they can. But both women speak differently when they talk of the young.

"She doesn't even know how to write her own name," Laila says of her granddaughter. "There's no education in Gaza."

The little girl's mother was killed during the war. Laila says she still talks to her at night.

"She was the soul of my soul and she left her daughter in my hands. If I have the chance to travel, I will do so for the sake of my granddaughter."

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette

Israel using food as a weapon against Gazans

Israel has imposed a block on all aid entering the Gaza Strip following the end of the first phase of the January 19 ceasefire deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office issued a statement on Sunday confirming that Israel had blocked the entry of all goods into Gaza, Middle East Eye reported.

The move, which coincides with the fasting month of Ramadan for Muslims, came after Hamas refused to accept the extension of the first phase of the ceasefire deal.

Though, Israel has stopped, possibly temporarily, dropping bombs on Gazans, its recent moves openly confirm that it was starving the Gazans during the nearly 16-month war to make the resistance fighters surrender.

The statement by Netanyahu’s office added, “Israel will not allow a ceasefire without the release of our hostages. If Hamas continues its refusal, there will be further consequences."

There are certain reasons for setting such a condition. Most importantly, Israel feels humiliated that despite its nearly 16-month cruel war on Gaza, it failed to defeat resistance fighters.

It is an open secret that Israel was starving Gazans, and the UN officially were constantly warning about this act. His then so-called defense minister Yoav Gallant said, "I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we act accordingly."

Israel is notoriously famous for breaking promises, agreements, and international laws. Now, contrary to the terms of the ceasefire agreement, Netanyahu is seeking to extend the initial exchange phase to secure the release of as many Israeli captives as possible without offering anything in return or fulfilling the military and humanitarian obligations of the agreement.

In addition to feeling humiliated to defeat the resistance fighters, Netanyahu is using aid as a weapon to force Hamas officials to give in to his demands, which are contrary to what has been agreed in ceasefire agreement, to find a pretext to resume the war as it has been openly implied in the Sunday statement, and finally force the people to leave their homes in line with the proposed Trump plan for Gaza and the greater project of ethnically cleansing Palestinians from their motherland.   

 

Trump still supplying arms to Israel

According to media reports, the US State Department has approved the sale of nearly US$3 billion worth of bombs, demolition kits and other weaponry to Israel. The weapons sales were notified to Congress on Friday afternoon on an emergency basis. 

That process sidestepped a long-standing practice of giving the chairs and ranking members of the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations Committees the opportunity to review the sale and ask for more information before making a formal notification to Congress.

The sales included 35,529 general-purpose bomb bodies for 2,000-pound bombs and 4,000 bunker-busting 2,000-pound bombs made by General Dynamics. While the Pentagon said that deliveries would begin in 2026, it also said “there is a possibility that a portion of this procurement will come from US stock which means immediate delivery for some of the weapons.

A second package, valued at US$675 million, consisted of five thousand 1,000-pound bombs and corresponding kits to help guide the “dumb” bombs. Delivery for this package was estimated to be in 2028. A third notification consisted of US$295 million worth of Caterpillar D9 bulldozers.

Friday’s announcements marked the second time this month the Trump administration has declared an emergency to quickly approve weapons sales to Israel. The Biden administration also utilized emergency authorities to approve the sale of arms to Israel without congressional review.

On Monday, the Trump administration rescinded a Biden-era order that required it to report potential violations of international law involving US-supplied weapons by allies, including Israel. It has eliminated most US humanitarian foreign aid.

Since Israel’s inception, it has received hundreds of billions of dollars in US foreign aid, a level of support that reflects many factors, including a US commitment to Israel’s security and the countries’ shared foreign policy interests in the Middle East.

Israel is a leading buyer of US weapons systems via traditional arms sales. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) report found Israel as one of the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid since its founding, receiving about US$310 billion in total economic and military assistance.

Nearly all US aid today goes to support Israel’s military, the most advanced in the region. The United States has provisionally agreed via a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to provide Israel with $3.8 billion per year through 2028, as per the CFR report.

The report also highlighted that since the start of Israel’s conflict with Hamas on October 07, 2023, the US has enacted legislation providing at least US$12.5 billion in direct military aid to Israel, which includes US$3.8 billion from a bill in March 2024 and US$8.7 billion from a supplemental appropriations act in April 2024.

 

Arabs have no spine to reject Trump Gaza plan

I am obliged to share an article by Hilal Khashan published in Geopolitical Futures. The punch line is “Regional governments’ ability to resist will be limited by their need for Washington’s support”. This sees a harsh ground reality and it is feared that sooner than later Arabs would succumb to the US pressure. It may be recalled that Israel, with the help of United States has already brought Syria, Lebanon and Hamas on their knees and getting desperate to destroy Iranian nuclear and missile program.

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump during a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his plan to take over the Gaza Strip and resettle its residents in Egypt and Jordan. A week later, he reiterated his intention during a press briefing in Washington with Jordanian King Abdullah II, who appeared uncomfortable listening to Trump’s proposal but avoided challenging the president on the matter. Fearing a similarly embarrassing situation, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi canceled his own visit to Washington scheduled for February 18.

The Palestinian question was the focal point of Arab foreign policy until the 1967 Six-Day War. Since then, Arab countries have sought various peace treaties with Israel and grown dependent on US protection for their survival. Though they cannot endorse Trump’s plan to evict Palestinians from Gaza and transform the strip into a “Riviera of the Middle East,” neither can they simply dismiss his assertions. Trump has challenged Arab leaders to come up with an alternative plan for Gaza, knowing they likely cannot.

Many observers have compared Trump’s proposal to resettle Palestinians in neighboring countries to Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s willingness to host them in Sinai in the early 1950s. But the conditions that led Nasser to favor the resettlement of Gazan refugees differ fundamentally from the situation in the region today.

After the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, it was the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) that proposed resettling refugees who had fled to Gaza during the conflict, in accordance with UN General Assembly resolution 194. The initiative would not have affected the 80,000 Gaza residents who were living there before the war. Arabs generally viewed it as a humanitarian endeavor, given the wide range of relief services the agency provided, rather than a liquidation plan, as opponents of Trump’s proposal see it.

The UN-sponsored initiative ultimately collapsed. In 1953, UNRWA and Egypt, under Nasser, signed a plan to resettle 120,000 refugees from Gaza. Two years later, they agreed that the Egyptian town of Qantara, located east of Suez and 220 kilometers (140 miles) southwest of Gaza, would be the location of a new settlement for the refugees. But in retaliation for the United States and Britain’s refusal to fund the construction of the Aswan High Dam, Nasser withdrew his support from the project.

The Palestinian issue has long been a sensitive topic in the Arab world. Arab governments know they cannot be seen as supportive of a US plan to remove Palestinians from Gaza. Still, Arab countries’ responses to the proposal have been weak and indecisive. They even postponed an emergency Arab League summit scheduled for the end of this month to discuss an alternative plan for Gaza, under the pretext that some Arab heads of state had prior commitments.

El-Sissi launched a fierce media campaign to try to convince the Egyptian public that Cairo will not give in to threats and blackmail. (Pentagon officials had hinted to Egyptian officials that military aid, including repairs to equipment and spare parts, could be affected by Egypt’s position on the Trump plan). Egyptian officials also helped organize demonstrations against the proposal, hoping to convey a message to Washington that the Egyptian people (and not just the government) rejected the relocation plan. Egypt’s top mufti called the proposal irresponsible and provocative and said it violates international norms and humanitarian standards – sentiments Arab leaders dare not say themselves.

El-Sissi said the relocation of Gazans to Egypt would be a direct threat to his regime, as Palestinians would disseminate a culture of resistance and promote their own interests inside Egypt. In a public address, el-Sissi described the displacement of Palestinians as an injustice in which Cairo cannot participate and insisted that he would not tolerate any actions that harm Egyptian national security, without specifying how resettling Gazans in Sinai would do so.

He reiterated his determination to work with Trump and said the US president still wants to achieve a two-state solution. Despite believing that Israel will not allow the establishment of a Palestinian state, Egypt at least officially continues to focus on the importance of cooperation with the United States to achieve a just peace between the Palestinians and Israel and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Egyptian officials told the US director of national intelligence that Cairo will cancel its peace agreement with Israel if the Trump administration continues to push to displace Gaza residents or stops the flow of US aid. However, the most el-Sissi can do is temporarily suspend the Camp David Accords, knowing the consequences of fully repealing the treaty would be intolerable for Cairo. The Egyptians fear that Trump’s global ambitions go beyond annexing Canada and Greenland and acquiring Ukraine’s mineral resources. They believe he could be eyeing the Sinai Desert, given its strategic location, abundance of natural resources and tourist attractions.

Egypt has learned the lessons of the 1967 war. It is not serious about a military confrontation with Israel, no matter what happens to Palestinians in Gaza, and it will not create the conditions for another disastrous conflict, despite the uproar. The Egyptian government even released a statement saying the Egyptian and US presidents agreed on a number of topics during a recent call, avoiding any mention of Trump’s Gaza proposal.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, most Arab countries, including Jordan, issued perfunctory statements rejecting Trump’s calls to displace people from Gaza. But they failed to announce any measures to counter the plan. Their responses likely won’t go beyond verbal denunciations, a time-honored practice for Arab officials.