Trump fires Biden appointees and Hook

According to The Hill, US President Donald Trump announced the firing of four high-profile presidential appointees just after midnight Tuesday. These include a top envoy to Iran during his first term, Brian Hook, and retired Gen. Mark Milley, whom Trump tapped as Joint Chiefs chair in 2018.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that fired Hook from the Wilson Center; Milley from the National Infrastructure Advisory Council; celebrity chef and humanitarian José Andrés from the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness and Nutrition; and Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, from the President’s Export Council.

“Our first day in the White House is not over yet! My Presidential Personnel Office is actively in the process of identifying and removing over a thousand Presidential Appointees from the previous Administration, who are not aligned with our vision to Make America Great Again,” Trump posted on Truth Social just past midnight Tuesday. 

“Let this serve as Official Notice of Dismissal for these 4 individuals, with many more, coming soon,” Trump said before listing off the four officials in the post that ended with “YOU’RE FIRED!” 

Milley, the former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was given a preemptive pardon by former President Biden in the final hours of his presidency. Milley has at times forcefully criticized Trump, and Trump has suggested he should be court-martialed and executed.

The retired general’s portrait at the Pentagon, hung in the Joint Chiefs hallway, was taken down Monday less than two weeks after it was put up.

Hook, who served under former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during Trump’s first term, was an Iran hawk who supported sanctions the Trump administration imposed on Iran. 

Bottoms was a senior adviser on Biden’s reelection campaign, after deciding against running for a second term as Atlanta’s mayor.

Andrés, the founder of World Central Kitchen, has questioned whether Trump can carry out his ambitious deportation plans, and seems to be considering a future in politics himself.

In a flurry of executive orders Trump signed Monday, he also ordered federal workers return to the office five days a week.

 

US imposes sanctions on Yemen-Kuwait Bank

According to Reuters, the United States on Friday imposed sanctions on a Yemen-based financial institution that Washington accused of financially supporting the Houthis, as President Joe Biden's administration sought to further pressure the militant group before Biden leaves office.

The US Treasury Department in a statement said it imposed sanctions on Yemen Kuwait Bank, accusing it of helping the Houthis exploit the Yemeni banking sector to launder money and transfer funds to allies, including Lebanon's Hezbollah.

The Houthis have carried out more than 100 attacks on ships since November 2023. They have sunk two vessels, seized another and killed at least four seafarers. The intensity of the attacks has disrupted global shipping and prompted route changes.

The attacks have disrupted international commerce, forcing some ships to take the long route around southern Africa rather than the Suez Canal, leading to increases in insurance rates, delivery costs and time that stoked global inflation fears.

The Houthis seized power in Yemen in late 2014 and control most parts of the country including the capital Sanaa. They have also launched missiles and drones towards Israel, hundreds of kilometres to the north. Israel has responded by striking Houthi areas on several occasions. Last week Israeli warplanes bombed two ports and a power station.

The US alongside Britain launched a multinational operation in December 2023 to safeguard commerce in the Red Sea, and has repeatedly conducted air strikes on Houthi strongholds targeting weapons storage facilities.

Biden's action, ahead of the inauguration on Monday of President-elect Donald Trump, freezes any of Yemen Kuwait Bank's US assets and generally bars Americans from dealing with it. Those that engage in certain transactions with it also risk being hit with US sanctions.

 

 

Russia and Iran to sign strategic partnership

According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will hold talks in Russia on January 17 after which they will sign a long-awaited comprehensive strategic partnership pact, the Kremlin said on Monday.

The two leaders will discuss options for further expanding ties between Moscow and Tehran, including in the trade and investment, transport and logistics, and humanitarian spheres, the Kremlin said.

Putin and Pezeshkian will also talk about regional and international issues, it added.

Russia has developed closer ties with Iran and other countries hostile towards the United States, such as North Korea, since the start of the Ukraine war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in October last year that Moscow and Tehran intended to sign the strategic partnership pact which would include closer defence cooperation.

The United States accused Tehran in September last year of delivering close-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, and imposed sanctions on ships and companies it said were involved in delivering Iranian weapons. Tehran denies providing Moscow with the missiles.

Venezuela: Maduro sworn in for third term

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose nearly 12 years in office have been marked by deep economic and social crisis, was sworn in for a third term on Friday, despite a six-month-long election dispute, international calls for him to stand aside, and an increase in the US reward offered for his capture, reports Reuters.

Maduro, president since 2013, was declared the winner of July 2024 election by both Venezuela's electoral authority and top court, though detailed tallies confirming his victory have never been published.

Venezuela's opposition says ballot box-level tallies show a landslide win for its former candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, who is recognized as president-elect by several countries, including the United States. International election observers said the vote was not democratic.

The months since the election have seen Gonzalez's flight to Spain in September, his ally Maria Corina Machado going into hiding in Venezuela, and the detentions of high-profile opposition figures and protesters.

Gonzalez has been on a whistle-stop tour of the Americas this week and had promised to return to Venezuela.

But Machado, appearing in a video posted on social media on Friday, said the moment was not right for his return.

"Edmundo will come to Venezuela to be sworn in as constitutional president of Venezuela at the right time," Machado said. "Today, it isn't viable for Edmundo to enter Venezuela. I've asked him not to do so because his integrity is fundamental for the final defeat of the regime and the transition to democracy, which is very close."

"Maduro consolidated the coup and the violation of our constitution," Machado added, calling for street protests. "It's time to do whatever is necessary to restore it."

The government, which has accused the opposition of fomenting fascist plots against it, has said Gonzalez will be arrested if he returns and offered a US$100,000 reward for information leading to his capture.

"Soon, very soon, whatever they do, we will manage to enter Venezuela and put an end to this tragedy," Gonzalez said in his own remarks from the Dominican Republic, asking the military to ignore "illegal orders" from Maduro and cease any repression.

In the latest in a series of punitive steps, the outgoing Biden administration increased its reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Maduro on drug trafficking charges to US$25 million, from a previous US$15 million.

It also issued a US$25 million reward for Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and a US$15 million reward for Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, as well as new sanctions against eight other officials including the head of state oil company PDVSA Hector Obregon.

The US indicted Maduro and others on narcotics and corruption charges, among others, in 2020. Maduro has rejected the accusations.

The US move coincided with sanctions by Britain and the European Union, each targeting 15 officials including members of the National Electoral Council and the security forces, and Canadian sanctions targeting 14 current and former officials.

The Maduro government has always rejected all sanctions, saying they are illegitimate measures that amount to an "economic war" designed to cripple Venezuela.

"The outgoing government of the United States doesn't know how to take revenge on us," Maduro said during his inauguration speech, without directly mentioning sanctions.

The Venezuelan communications ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the sanctions, while US officials declined to comment on possible further sanctions, including on the oil industry.

Maduro and his allies have cheered what they say is the country's resilience despite the measures, though they have historically blamed some economic hardships and shortages on sanctions.

Maduro's inauguration was illegitimate, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement, and the US will not recognize him as president.

"The Venezuelan people and world know the truth – Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency," Blinken said.

Later on Friday, Padrino led members of the armed forces in a separate ceremony, where they swore complete loyalty to Maduro.

 

 

Gaza death toll grossly understated

A peer-reviewed analysis published in The Lancet on Thursday found that the official Gaza death toll reported by the enclave's Ministry of Health between October 07, 2023 and June 30, 2024 was likely a 41% undercount, a finding that underscores the devastation wrought by Israel's assault on the Palestinian territory and the difficulties of collecting accurate data amid relentless bombing.

During the period examined by the new study, Gaza's health ministry (MoH) reported that 37,877 people had been killed in Israeli attacks. But the Lancet analysis estimates that the death toll during that period was 64,260, with women, children, and the elderly accounting for nearly 60% of the deaths for which details were available. That count only includes "deaths due to traumatic injury," leaving out deaths from starvation, cold, and disease.

To reach their estimate, the authors of the new study "composed three lists from successive MoH-collected hospital morgue data, an MoH online survey, and obituaries published on public social media pages" and "manually scraped information from open-source social media platforms, including specific obituary pages for Gaza shaheed, martyrs of Gaza, and The Palestinian Information Center to create our third capture-recapture list."

"These pages are widely used obituary spaces where relatives and friends inform their networks about deaths, offer condolences and prayers, and honor people known as martyrs (those killed in war)," the authors write. "The platforms span multiple social media channels, including X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Telegram. Throughout the study period, these pages were updated periodically and consistently, providing a comprehensive source of information on casualties. Obituaries typically included names, age at death, and date and location of death, and were often accompanied by photographs and personal stories. We translated English posts into Arabic to match names across lists and excluded deaths attributed to non-traumatic injuries."

The group of authors—which includes academics from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Japan—said the findings "show an exceptionally high mortality rate in the Gaza Strip during the period studied" and highlight "the urgent need for interventions to prevent further loss of life and illuminate important patterns in the conduct of the war."

Establishing an accurate count of the number of people killed in Israel's 15-month assault on the Gaza Strip, which began in the wake of a deadly Hamas-led attack, has been made extremely difficult by the Israeli military's incessant bombing and destruction of the enclave's medical infrastructure. There are also tens of thousands of people believed to be missing under the ruins of Gaza homes and buildings.

The Lancet study notes, "The escalation of Israeli military ground operations and attacks on healthcare facilities severely disrupted" Gaza officials' data-collection efforts. Prior to October 7, 2023, the MoH "had achieved good accuracy in mortality documentation, with underreporting estimated at 13%," the new analysis notes, and its figures were widely considered reliable.

Since Israel launched its catastrophic response to the Hamas-led attack, US lawmakers and leaders who have backed Israel's assault—including President Joe Biden—have openly cast doubt on the ministry's data. Currently, the MoH estimates that more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 07, 2023.

Last month, the US Congress approved a sprawling military policy bill that included a provision barring the Pentagon from publicly citing as "authoritative" death toll figures from Gaza's health ministry. Biden signed the measure into law on December 23, 2024.

"This is an alarming erasure of the suffering of the Palestinian people, ignoring the human toll of ongoing violence," Rep. Ilhan Omar, who voted against the legislation, told The Intercept following House passage of the measure.

 

Lebanon: Army chief elected president

Lebanese parliament elected Army Chief Joseph Aoun head of state on Thursday, filling the vacant presidency with a general who has US support and showing the weakened sway of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group after its devastating war with Israel, reports Reuters.

In a speech to the chamber, Aoun, 60, vowed to work to ensure the state has the exclusive right to carry arms, drawing loud applause as lawmakers from Hezbollah, which runs its own military forces, sat still.

He promised to rebuild south Lebanon and other parts of the country he said had been destroyed by Israel, and also to prevent Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which was mired in deep economic and political crises even before the latest conflict. "Today, a new phase in the history of Lebanon begins," he said.

His election reflected shifts in the power balance in Lebanon and the wider Middle East, with Shi'ite Muslim Hezbollah badly pummeled from last year's war, and its Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad toppled in December 2024. It also indicated a revival of Saudi influence in a country where Riyadh's role was eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah long ago.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar congratulated Lebanon, saying on X he hoped Aoun's election would contribute towards stability and good neighborly relations.

US ambassador Lisa Johnson, attending the session, told Reuters she was "very happy" with Aoun's election.

The presidency, reserved for a Maronite Christian in Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022, with deeply divided factions unable to agree on a candidate able to win enough votes in the 128-seat parliament.

Joseph Aoun fell short of the 86 votes needed in a first round vote, but crossed the threshold with 99 votes in a second round, after lawmakers from Hezbollah and its Shi'ite ally the Amal Movement backed him.

Hezbollah lawmaker Mohammed Raad said that by delaying their vote for Aoun, the group had "sent a message that we are the guardians of national consensus".

Momentum built behind Aoun on Wednesday as Hezbollah's long preferred candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, withdrew and declared support for the army commander, and as French and Saudi envoys shuttled around Beirut, urging his election in meetings with politicians, three Lebanese political sources said.

A source close to the Saudi royal court said French, Saudi, and US envoys had told Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally that international financial assistance - including from Saudi Arabia - hinged on Aoun's election.

"There is a very clear message from the international community that they are ready to support Lebanon, but that needs a president, a government," Michel Mouawad, a Christian lawmaker opposed to Hezbollah who voted for Aoun, told Reuters.

"We did get a message from Saudi of support," he added.

The Saudi king and crown prince congratulated Aoun.

 

US holds old grudge against Iran, Khamenei

In a meeting commemorating the 1978 Qom uprising against the Pahlavi regime, held on its anniversary, January 08, 2025, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei addressed thousands from Qom Province at the Imam Khomeini Hussainiyah. 

The Leader connected Iran's current stance against negotiating with the US to the Islamic Revolution, arguing that US hostility arises from the loss of political and economic advantages that resulted from the revolution.

He emphasized the necessity of drawing lessons from the uprising of the 19th of Dey (January 9, 1978), identifying the "relentless, substantial, and effective" efforts of media and social media activists to "tear down the veil of the enemy's illusion of power and to safeguard public opinion" as pressing needs of today.

Ayatollah Khamenei considered the 19 Dey uprising in Qom to contain various lessons and insights, underscoring that the most important lesson from that day is that it reveals what kind of Iran Washington desires and prefers.

Highlighting President Carter's visit to Tehran on December 31, 1977, and his disingenuous commendation of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as well as Carter’s portrayal of Pahlavi Iran as an “island of stability,” Ayatollah Khamenei explained, “The Iran that Carter deemed desirable for America in 1977 was, in terms of foreign policy, entirely subservient to the US and served to secure American interests. Domestically, it witnessed the severe suppression of all opposition movements, as well as any divergent viewpoints from the regime.”

The Leader of the Islamic Revolution remarked that, during that period, the United States envisioned an ideal Iran characterized by immense oil revenues accompanied by stark economic stratification. In terms of science and technology, they desired a nation that remained underdeveloped, while culturally, they sought a society where corruption, promiscuity, and Western decadence would proliferate daily.

He emphasized that the uprising of the 19th of Dey freed "the ideal Iran for the US" from America’s clutches. However, he noted that “the US still yearns for that vision of Iran, but just as Carter took this dream to the grave, so too will other Americans.”

According to Ayatollah Khamenei, the victory of the Islamic Revolution created a crack in the concrete wall of Global Arrogance and shook the West’s barrier. He added, “Another lesson of the 19th of Dey uprising is that we must safeguard our public opinion against enemy propaganda.”

Referring to the publication of an insulting article against Imam Khomeini in a newspaper in January 1978, the Leader highlighted the role of propaganda utilized by the United States and the Pahlavi regime. 

“They intended to silence the Zulfiqar of Imam Khomeini’s tongue, which, from near the sacred shrine of the Commander of the Faithful [Imam Ali], brought warmth and hope to people’s hearts. However, the people of Qom, with vigilance and distrust of American and Pahlavi propaganda, thwarted that move.”

Ayatollah Khamenei pointed to the exponential increase in the use of propaganda tools by the United States to consolidate the outcomes of its military actions, saying, “In Gaza, they massacred tens of thousands of people, yet they could not eliminate Resistance with their [military] hardware. In Lebanon, they martyred a figure like Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah and other commanders, but Hezbollah was not eradicated and will not be eradicated.”

In another part of his speech, the Leader described Iran as a “strategic pinnacle” in the world, endowed with valuable blessings such as natural resources and above-average human resources. 

He said, “For several decades, starting around 80 years ago, Iran was essentially owned by America. But the Islamic Revolution freed the country from America’s grip, and this is why they will not forget their resentment over the Islamic Revolution.”

The Leader of the Islamic Revolution addressed questions raised by some individuals about why the Islamic Republic, despite its relations with European countries, refuses to negotiate or establish ties with the United States. He responded, “Pre-revolution Iran was under American ownership, but the Islamic Revolution liberated that enormous political and economic opportunity from US control. Therefore, their grudge toward the Revolution is [deeply rooted], and this differs significantly from European countries.”

Ayatollah Khamenei described one of the primary demands of Global Arrogance, led by the United States, as ensuring their interests and considerations are factored into the decisions of other nations, including Iran.

Stressing the dangers of yielding to such demands, he said, “Succumbing to America’s excessive demand undermines democracy and the nature of democracy in the country.”

“The people have voted for officials to secure their own interests, not those of America. Therefore, decision-makers must focus solely on the interests of the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic and disregard the interests of America and the Zionists entirely, as they are fundamentally hostile to our nation and the Islamic Republic, wishing for the destruction of Iran.”

He further pointed to the United States’ failure to reclaim control over Iran despite significant efforts and costs over the past 46 years, calling this another reason for their grudge toward the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic.

He remarked, “America has been defeated in this country and seeks to compensate for that defeat. As a result, they pursue enmity against the Iranian people in every way they can.”

 

Iran condemns British-US attacks on Yemen

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has issued a stern condemnation of the recent airstrikes conducted by Britain and the United States on Yemen's northern province of Saada.

In a statement released on Sunday, Spokesperson Esmail Baqaei denounced the attacks as flagrant violations of Yemen's national sovereignty and territorial integrity, pointing out that they contradict the principles of international law.

Baqaei highlighted the recurrent nature of these military violations, involving not only the US and Britain but also the Israeli regime, against Yemen.

"These acts of aggression will lead to increased insecurity and further instability in West Asia," Baqaei warned.

In the early days of the New Year, British and US forces launched multiple airstrikes targeting vital infrastructure in Saada.

These attacks have caused significant damage to power stations, communication networks, and other critical infrastructure.

Analysts believe these repeated airstrikes aim to undermine Yemen's ability to support Gaza and are part of a broader strategy to destabilize the region.

Baqaei also criticized the ongoing support provided by Britain and the US to the Israeli regime, describing it as "direct involvement in committing heinous international crimes against the people of Gaza."

He praised the Yemeni people's solidarity with Palestinians and urged the international community, particularly Islamic countries, to take more decisive action to halt the violence in occupied Palestine.

"The international community must take swift and decisive measures to end the suffering of the Palestinian people and ensure their protection," Baqaei asserted.

 

Trump proposes US-Canada merger

According to The Hill, President-elect Trump on Monday raised the idea of a ‘merged’ United States and Canada after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.

Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social site that, if both nations were to become one, "there would no Tariffs" and that "taxes would go way down."

He also said Canada would be "Totally Secure” from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them," and argued many Canadians would "Love" the idea of being the “51st State” of the United States.

Trump added that the merger would be beneficial for the US, because it would “no longer suffer” from “massive Trade Deficits” and subsidies that it provides to Canada.

Trudeau, who has served as Canada’s prime minister for nine years, announced Monday that he would be resigning before general elections later this year.

His Liberal Party, which Trudeau has led for 11 years, is polling poorly, and the leader has faced mounting crises, including the resignation of a top minister and a confrontation with Trump’s 25 percent tariff plan, among other issues.

 

US plans US$8 billion arms sale to Israel

The administration of President Joe Biden has notified Congress of a proposed US$8 billion arms sale to Israel, a US official said on Friday, with Washington maintaining support for its ally whose war in Gaza has killed tens of thousands, reports Reuters.

The deal would need approval from the House of Representatives and Senate committees and includes munitions for fighter jets and attack helicopters as well as artillery shells, Axios reported earlier. The package also includes small-diameter bombs and warheads, according to Axios.

Protesters have for months demanded an arms embargo against Israel, but US policy has largely remained unchanged. In August 2024, the United States approved the sale of US$20 billion in fighter jets and other military equipment to Israel.

The Biden administration says it is helping its ally defend against Iran-backed militant groups like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Facing international criticism, Washington has stood by Israel during its assault on Gaza that has displaced nearly all of Gaza's 2.3 million population, caused a hunger crisis and led to genocide accusations.

The Gaza health ministry puts the death toll at over 45,000 people, with many additional feared buried under rubble.

Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to end the 15-month-old Israeli war in Gaza that was triggered after an October 07, 2023 attack by Palestinian Hamas militants that killed 1,200 and in which about 250 were taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies.

Washington, Israel's biggest ally and weapons supplier, has also previously vetoed UN Security Council resolutions on a ceasefire in Gaza.

Democrat Biden is due to leave office on January 20, 2025 when Republican President-elect Donald Trump will succeed him. Both are strong backers of Israel.

 

  

Nippon’s collapsed deal a challenge for Japan

According to the Nikkei Asia, US President Joe Biden's decision on Friday to block Nippon Steel's bid for US Steel shows the outsized influence steel jobs have on American politics, despite being in a state of decline.

Biden ordered a stop to the US$14.9 billion acquisition, citing national security concerns. The steelmakers have said they will "take all appropriate action to protect our legal rights."

In the past 40 years, there have been only two cases of major Japanese acquisitions of U.S. companies in the Rust Belt states of the Midwest and Northeast: tire maker Bridgestone's deal for Firestone and Suntory Holdings' purchase of bourbon maker Beam.

The reason for this is that manufacturing, particularly the automobile industry, has shifted its focus to the Sun Belt states of the South to escape the influence of labor unions.

US Steel, which has its headquarters and main steelworks in Pennsylvania, is a symbol of what was left behind. The US steel industry as a whole is a shadow of its former self. According to US labor statistics, the total number of American steelworkers is now less than that of manicurists.

The transition from blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces, which allow for reduced manpower, is a factor in this workforce decline.

Despite being a minority in terms of labor statistics, the steel industry's political influence remains relatively large due to the hollowing out of other industries -- a situation unlikely to change in the near future. It is no coincidence that Pennsylvania is also a swing state in presidential elections.

Acquisition success has been said to hinge on four points: timing, valuation, the ability to predict changes in the business environment, and the buyer's ability to manage the target.

For the US Steel deal, the time was right for Nippon Steel to buy, aside from the then-impending US presidential election. But the business environment and management factors were shaky.

After its losses at the polls in November, the Democratic Party wants to win back labor union support in preparation for the next presidential election in four years.

President-elect Donald Trump's Republican Party will be keen to hold on to union votes. Even if the acquisition somehow goes through, the combined steelmaker would still face the risk of political interference in management decisions.

Yet this is not a reason to give up on buying American companies. A setback like this should be taken in stride as an opportunity to learn to manage uncertainty.

Nippon Steel has technology that US Steel's leadership wants, including carbon dioxide-trapping pipes and lower-emissions hydrogen reduction steelmaking. Given Trump's stated ambition to revive American manufacturing, all hope for the deal may not be lost.

 

Trump can’t take Panama Canal on his own

Teddy Roosevelt once declared the Panama Canal “one of the feats to which the people of this republic will look back with the highest pride.” More than a century later, Donald Trump is threatening to take back the waterway for the same republic.

The president-elect is decrying increased fees Panama has imposed to use the waterway linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. He says if things don’t change after he takes office next month, “We will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America, in full, quickly and without question.”

Trump has long threatened allies with punitive action in hopes of winning concessions. But experts in both countries are clear, unless he goes to war with Panama, Trump can’t reassert control over a canal the US agreed to cede in the 1970s.

What is the canal?

It is a man-made waterway that uses a series of locks and reservoirs over 51 miles (82 kilometers) to cut through the middle of Panama and connect the Atlantic and Pacific. It spares ships having to go an additional roughly 7,000 miles (more than 11,000 kilometers) to sail around Cape Horn at South America’s southern tip.

The US International Trade Administration says the canal saves American business interests “considerable time and fuel costs” and enables faster delivery of goods, which is “particularly significant for time sensitive cargoes, perishable goods, and industries with just-in-time supply chains.”

Who built it?

An effort to establish a canal through Panama led by Ferdinand de Lesseps, who built Egypt’s Suez Canal, began in 1880 but progressed little over nine years before going bankrupt.

Malaria, yellow fever and other tropical diseases devastated a workforce already struggling with especially dangerous terrain and harsh working conditions in the jungle, eventually costing more than 20,000 lives, by some estimates.

Panama was then a province of Colombia, which refused to ratify a subsequent 1901 treaty licensing US interests to build the canal. Roosevelt responded by dispatching US warships to Panama’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The US also prewrote a constitution that would be ready after Panamanian independence, giving American forces “the right to intervene in any part of Panama, to re-establish public peace and constitutional order.”

In part because Colombian troops were unable to traverse harsh jungles, Panama declared an effectively bloodless independence within hours in November 1903. It soon signed a treaty allowing a US-led team to begin construction.

Some 5,600 workers died later during the US-led construction project, according to one study.

Why doesn’t the US control the canal anymore?

The waterway opened in 1914, but almost immediately some Panamanians began questioning the validity of US control, leading to what became known in the country as the “generational struggle” to take it over.

The US abrogated its right to intervene in Panama in the 1930s. By the 1970s, with its administrative costs sharply increasing, Washington spent years negotiating with Panama to cede control of the waterway.

The Carter administration worked with the government of Omar Torrijos. The two sides eventually decided that their best chance for ratification was to submit two treaties to the US Senate, the “Permanent Neutrality Treaty” and the “Panama Canal Treaty.”

The first, which continues in perpetuity, gives the US the right to act to ensure the canal remains open and secure. The second stated that the US would turn over the canal to Panama on December 31, 1999, and was terminated then.

Both were signed in 1977 and ratified the following year. The agreements held even after 1989, when President George H.W. Bush invaded Panama to remove Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega.

In the late 1970s, as the handover treaties were being discussed and ratified, polls found that about half of Americans opposed the decision to cede canal control to Panama. However, by the time ownership actually changed in 1999, public opinion had shifted, with about half of Americans in favor.

What’s happened since then?

Administration of the canal has been more efficient under Panama than during the US era, with traffic increasing 17% between fiscal years 1999 and 2004. Panama’s voters approved a 2006 referendum authorizing a major expansion of the canal to accommodate larger modern cargo ships. The expansion took until 2016 and cost more than US$5.2 billion.

Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino said in a video Sunday, “Every square meter of the canal belongs to Panama and will continue to.” He added that, while his country’s people are divided on some key issues, when it comes to our canal, and our sovereignty, we will all unite under our Panamanian flag.

Shipping prices have increased because of droughts last year affecting the canal locks, forcing Panama to drastically cut shipping traffic through the canal and raise rates to use it. Though the rains have mostly returned, Panama says future fee increases might be necessary as it undertakes improvements to accommodate modern shipping needs.

Mulino said fees to use the canal are “not set on a whim.”

Jorge Luis Quijano, who served as the waterway’s administrator from 2014 to 2019, said all canal users are subject to the same fees, though they vary by ship size and other factors.

“I can accept that the canal’s customers may complain about any price increase,” Quijano said. “But that does not give them reason to consider taking it back.”

Why has Trump raised this?

The president-elect says the US is getting “ripped off” and “I’m not going to stand for it.”

“It was given to Panama and to the people of Panama, but it has provisions — you’ve got to treat us fairly. And they haven’t treated us fairly,” Trump said of the 1977 treaty that he said “foolishly” gave the canal away.

The neutrality treaty does give the US the right to act if the canal’s operation is threatened due to military conflict — but not to reassert control.

“There’s no clause of any kind in the neutrality agreement that allows for the taking back of the canal,” Quijano said. “Legally, there’s no way, under normal circumstances, to recover territory that was used previously.”

Trump, meanwhile, hasn’t said how he might make good on his threat.

“There’s very little wiggle room, absent a second US invasion of Panama, to retake control of the Panama Canal in practical terms,” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

Gedan said Trump’s stance is especially baffling given that Mulino is a pro-business conservative who has “made lots of other overtures to show that he would prefer a special relationship with the United States.” He also noted that Panama in recent years has moved closer to China, meaning the US has strategic reasons to keep its relationship with the Central American nation friendly.

Panama is also a US partner on stopping illegal immigration from South America — perhaps Trump’s biggest policy priority.

“If you’re going to pick a fight with Panama on an issue,” Gedan said, “you could not find a worse one than the canal.”

Courtesy: Associated Press

Taming the Shrewd called Trump

It is as clear as day that the US president has incalculable powers. Despite being an elected president, he is a complete autocrat. He can take many decisions at his own without the approval of the Senate and can veto any decision of the Senate. This right is available to the president under the US Constitution.

In his first term, Donald Trump not only unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement reached with Iran by the remaining superpowers, but also imposed more sanctions at his own. After Iran's protests and the superpowers' surrender, Joe Biden has also been imposing new sanctions on Iran.

After being re-elected as president in the recent elections, he has begun to hint at rare royal decrees to be issued after he takes oath on January 20, 2025.

The first decree is that the BRICS countries will not create their own currency and if they dare to make such a mistake, they will be subject to additional tariffs and will not be able to export their products to the United States.

Israel has broken the backs of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria at the behest of the US, and today there are heavy attacks on Yemen. There is a growing fear that Iran will be the next target.

At the same time, Trump has announced to impose new tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products exported to the US.

The limit is that Trump has also announced new tariffs on his allies to undermine the European Union.

I have no qualms in saying that the continued silence of Russia and China and the criminal indifference of the oil-producing Arab countries have given the US the courage to do all this.

Remember, those countries that are silent spectators of the destruction of other countries today will have no one to shed tears over their destruction tomorrow.

Trump wants EU to buy more US oil and gas or face tariffs

According to Reuters, US President-elect Donald Trump said on Friday that the European Union (EU) may face tariffs if the bloc does not cut its growing deficit with the United States by making large oil and gas trades with the world's largest economy.

The EU is already buying the lion's share of US oil and gas exports, according to US government data, and no additional volumes are currently available unless the United States increases output or volumes are re-routed frm Asia - another big consumer of US energy.

"I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

"Otherwise, it is tariffs all the way!!!," he added.

The European Commission said it was ready to discuss with the president-elect how to strengthen an already strong relationship, including in the energy sector.

"The EU is committed to phasing out energy imports from Russia and diversifying our sources of supply," a spokesperson said.

The United States already supplied 47% of the European Union's LNG imports and 17% of its oil imports in the first quarter of 2024, according to data from EU statistics office Eurostat.

Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on most if not all imports, and said Europe would pay a heavy price for having run a large trade surplus with the US for decades.

Trump has repeatedly highlighted the US trade deficit for goods, but not trade as a whole.

The US had a goods trade deficit with the EU of 155.8 billion euros (US$161.9 billion) last year. However, in services it had a surplus of 104 billion euros, Eurostat data shows.

Trump, who takes office on January 20, 2025 has already pledged hefty tariffs on three of the United States' largest trading partners - Canada, Mexico and China.

Most European oil refiners and gas firms are private and the governments have no say on where the purchases are coming from unless authorities impose sanctions or tariffs. The owners usually buy their resources based on price and efficiencies.

The EU has steeply increased purchases of US oil and gas following the block's decision to impose sanctions and cut reliance on Russian energy after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The United States has grown to become the largest oil producer in recent years with output of over 20 million barrels per day of oil liquids or a fifth of global demand.

US crude exports to Europe stand at over two million bpd representing over a half of US total exports with the rest going to Asia. The Netherlands, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, and Sweden are the biggest importers, according to the US government data.

The United States is also the world's biggest gas producer and consumer with output of over 103 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd).

The US government projects that US exports of liquefied gas (LNG) will average 12 bcfd in 2024. In 2023, Europe accounted for 66% of US LNG exports, with the Britain, France, Spain and Germany being the main destinations.

EU exports are dominated by Germany with key goods being cars, machinery and chemicals.

 

How would WTO brace Donald Trump?

The World Trade Organization (WTO) held the last of its 2024 meetings this week, and for anyone rooting for the institution to conclude long-discussed agreements just ahead of its 30th anniversary, the results were a little hard to watch. Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body.

Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body:

·        Dispute settlement reform was unresolved and there was a pledge to continue talking next year

·        On the second fisheries agreement, India and Indonesia were granted more time to air their concerns. “Fish 2” was at the decision stage but was demoted to a “discussion” item

·        India, South Africa and Turkey blocked a deal known as Investment Facilitation for Development. That left it short of the needed consensus, even though 126 members backed its incorporation into WTO bylaws

·        Progress was made on two administrative issues: picking dates for the next ministerial conference (March 26-29, 2026, in Cameroon) and approval of WTO Secretariat pension reforms

Newly re-appointed Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala tried to maintain a positive outlook, saying she hopes members return in the new year with a “spirit of compromise, ready to do deals.”

For an organization that needs everyone to agree, that’s going to be a challenge when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office January 20, 2025. His threatened tariffs and “America First” trade agenda run counter to the mission of the Geneva based WTO.

Trump promised 60% duties on Chinese imports and at least 10% for the rest of the world. In November, he threatened to impose further 10% tariffs on Beijing and 25% on Mexico and Canada if they fail to stop the flow of fentanyl and undocumented migrants to the US.

All of that violates the commitments that more than 160 nations make to join the WTO, said Bill Reinsch, a Commerce Department official during the Clinton administration and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Trump is known to dislike multilateral institutions, having withdrawn the US from a trade deal for the Indo-Pacific, the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization in his first term.

He could quit the WTO, too. Or he could stay in it, heap more scorn on the rules-based international order and ignore other countries complaining about Washington’s protectionism.

In Trump’s first term, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer watched the WTO’s appellate body grind to a standstill by preventing the appointment of new judges as terms expired, leaving it short of the number needed to function.

This week Biden administration delegates blocked a move by 130 WTO member countries that called for a restart of the process to fill vacancies on the appellate body — the 82nd time that that proposal failed.

The outlook for the WTO to free itself of paralysis under the incoming Trump administration isn’t favorable. 

Jamieson Greer, Trump’s nominee for USTR, was a close adviser to Lighthizer. His views on WTO relevancy are unclear, but he did say in testimony in May that “efforts to hold China accountable under WTO dispute mechanisms were largely unfruitful.”

The WTO also irked some Trump allies by accelerating the process this year of approving Okonjo-Iweala for another four-year term at its helm.

That was “almost certainly designed to prevent the incoming Trump administration from having a say in the matter,” said Dennis Shea, Trump’s ambassador to the WTO in his first term.

“The WTO already has diminished reputation in the United States,” he said. “This unprecedented action only diminishes it further.”

According to a Geneva-based trade source, Trump’s name wasn’t mentioned during this week’s General Council session.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

Need for unity among Muslim countries

A senior military adviser to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, has proposed that unity among Muslim nations could play a transformative role in reshaping global dynamics.

“The convergence and unity of Muslim countries, forming a Muslim power bloc, is the only way to liberate Muslim nations from the hegemony of global arrogance, particularly the United States and Israel,” Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi asserted.  

The Iranian general accused the United States and Israel of being key drivers of instability, war, and human suffering across the region and the globe.

Safavi argued that Muslim nations must prioritize sustainable security, regional peace, and self-reliance to achieve true progress and independence.  

Safavi emphasized that the world is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation, leading to the emergence of a new global order.

Speaking on the subject, he stated, “The current world is in a geopolitical transitional phase, and we are witnessing the shaping of a new world order on both regional and international scales.”  

According to Safavi, this evolving order is marked by the gradual decline of Western dominance and the rise of Eastern powers. He explained, “The global power system is slowly but surely shifting from the West to the East.”  

Safavi highlighted the growing influence of Asian and Eurasian powers, such as China, India, Russia, and Iran.

He noted that these nations are increasingly collaborating within frameworks like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS to challenge the unilateral dominance of the United States and its NATO allies.

Their objectives, he said, include reducing global reliance on the US dollar in trade and countering Western-centric policies.  

The general also underscored the chaotic state of the world, attributing recent conflicts and wars to a 200-year long struggle among global and regional powers for political, economic, and cultural dominance over strategically significant regions.  

He stressed the need for greater collaboration and recognition among Muslim countries, stressing that their collective efforts could pave the way for a stronger, unified presence on the global stage.

 

 

JCPOA no longer relevant, says IAEA chief

Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has said that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is no longer viable, appearing to place sole responsibility for the 2015 nuclear deal's lame-duck state on Iran.

"The philosophy of the initial JCPOA agreement can be used as a basis, but the agreement itself is no longer necessary," Grossi remarked during his visit to Italy for discussions with the Foreign Ministry. 

The UN nuclear chief pointed out that Iran is now enriching uranium to levels of 60%, a threshold that he said brings the country close to the capability to produce military-grade uranium, which requires enrichment to 90%. "Iran is rapidly approaching the status of a nuclear state," he claimed. 

Grossi omitted any mention of the West's abandonment of the deal, the factor that prompted Iran to curtail some of its JCPOA commitments in the first place. 

The JCPOA was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries (the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China). It aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the termination of sanctions.

Washington unilaterally withdrew from the pact in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions against Iran. European signatories to the deal not only failed to take the sting out of US sanctions but also came up with anti-Iran bans of their own. 

Tehran began to scale back on some of its JCPOA commitments in 2020, under a new law passed by the Iranian parliament. 
 

 

 

HTS: The B team of United States and Israel

The clandestine ties between Israel and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that took over Damascus last Sunday are coming under close scrutiny. It is our humble request to all the Muslims that they should try to understand the dirty drama being staged by United States with the connivance of Israel.

The HTS is originally an offshoot of ISIL, also known as ISIS and Daesh in Arabic, and al-Qaeda. It was previously referred to as the Nusra Front, underwent a rebranding in 2017 to alter public perception regarding its past actions.

Israel’s support for ISIL and al-Qaeda terrorists who fought against the Syrian government after the 2011 Arab Spring. Soon after the rebels seized the Syrian capital, Israel began a widespread bombing campaign pounding the country’s military facilities. The Israeli strikes were aimed at destroying Syria’s military capabilities amid fears that they could potentially be used against the regime. 

Israel also violated the 1974 agreement with Syria and deployed its ground troops into the Syrian territory.  The Israeli military has seized control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights in Syria that was created as part of the accord. Its forces have occupied some regions inside Syria beyond the zone.

The most striking is that HTS has kept mum about the Israeli airstrikes and ground incursion into Syria for several days. 

On Friday, Syria’s transitional government that operates under the supervision of HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, condemned Israel’s aggression against Syria. 

In a letter to the United Nations, the new transitional government described Israel’s land grab in Syria as a serious violation of the1974 armistice agreement. 

The letter also rebuked Israel for conducting air raids across Syria. 

"The Syrian Arab Republic condemns in the strongest terms this Israeli aggression," it said. 

Syria’s current rulers have been under fire over their inaction in the face of Israel’s acts of aggression. 

The statement's issuance aims to redirect attention from the rebels' inaction regarding Israel's appropriation of land and its airstrikes in Syria.

HTS members, many of whom are former members of Al-Qaeda and ISIL, received support from Israel in the wake of the civil war in Syria that followed the Arab Spring. 

Israeli media disclosed in 2014 that the Israeli military not only offered medical assistance to terrorists fighting in Syria but also maintained connections with them. 

UN observers in the Golan Heights meticulously detailed instances of contact between Israeli troops and rebels, including Syrians being sent into Israel for medical treatment, and the transfer of items and containers, the Times of Israel reported in December 214, citing records maintained by the UN disengagement force in the Golan demilitarized zone.

The rebels are currently attempting to obscure their connections with Israel under the guise of a new name, as they anticipate an increase in anti-regime sentiment due to its aggressive actions in Syria.

 

A prospective US war with Iran is pending

United States interference, at the behest of Netanyahu’s far-right Israel, has left the Middle East in ruins, with over a million dead and open wars raging in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine, and with Iran on the brink of a nuclear arsenal.

The story is simple, in stark violation of international law, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers claim the right to rule over seven million Palestinians. When Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands leads to militant resistance, Israel labels the resistance “terrorism” and calls on the US to overthrow the Middle East governments that back the “terrorists.” The US, under the sway of the Israel Lobby, goes to war on Israel’s behalf.

The fall of Syria this past week is the culmination of the US-Israel campaign against Syria that goes back to 1996 with Netanyahu’s arrival to office as Prime Minister. The US-Israel war on Syria escalated in 2011 and 2012, when Barack Obama covertly tasked the CIA with the overthrow of the Syrian Government in Operation Timber Sycamore. That effort finally came to “fruition” this week, after more than 300,000 deaths in the Syrian war since 2011.

Syria’s fall came swiftly because of more than a decade of crushing economic sanctions, the burdens of war, the US seizure of Syria’s oil, Russia’s priorities regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and most immediately, Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, which was the key military backstop to the Syrian Government. No doubt Assad often misplayed his own hand and faced severe internal discontent, but his regime was targeted for collapse for decades by the US and Israel.

Since 2011, the US-Israel perpetual war on Syria, including bombing, jihadists, economic sanctions, US seizure of Syria’s oil fields, and more, has sunk the Syrian people into misery.

In the immediate two days following the collapse of the government, Israel conducted about 480 strikes across Syria, and completely destroyed the Syrian fleet in Latakia. Pursuing his expansionist agenda, Prime Minister Netanyahu illegally claimed control over the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights and declared that the Golan Heights will be a part of the State of Israel “for eternity.”

Netanyahu’s ambition to transform the region through war, which dates back almost three decades, is playing out in front of our eyes. In a press conference on December 09, 2024 the Israeli prime minister boasted of an “absolute victory,” justifying the on-going genocide in Gaza and escalating violence throughout the region.

The long history of Israel’s campaign to overthrow the Syrian Government is not widely understood, yet the documentary record is clear. Israel’s war on Syria began with US and Israeli neoconservatives in 1996, who fashioned a “Clean Break” strategy for the Middle East for Netanyahu as he came to office.

The core of the “clean break” strategy called for the Israel (and the US) to reject “land for peace,” the idea that Israel would withdraw from the occupied Palestinian lands in return for peace. Instead, Israel would retain the occupied Palestinian lands, rule over the Palestinian people in an Apartheid state, step-by-step ethnically cleanse the state, and enforce so-called “peace for peace” by overthrowing neighboring governments that resisted Israel’s land claims.

The Clean Break strategy asserts, “Our claim to the land—to which we have clung for hope for 2000 years—is legitimate and noble,” and goes on to state, “Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which the US can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon…”

In his 1996 book Fighting Terrorism, Netanyahu set out the new strategy. Israel would not fight the terrorists; it would fight the states that support the terrorists. More accurately, it would get the US to do Israel’s fighting for it.

 

As he elaborated in 2001, the first and most crucial thing to understand is this: There is no international terrorism without the support of sovereign states.… Take away all this state support, and the entire scaffolding of international terrorism will collapse into dust.

Netanyahu’s strategy was integrated into US foreign policy. Taking out Syria was always a key part of the plan. This was confirmed to General Wesley Clark after 9/11.

He was told, during a visit at the Pentagon, that “we’re going to attack and destroy the governments in seven countries in five years—we’re going to start with Iraq, and then we’re going to move to Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.”

Iraq would be first, then Syria, and the rest. (Netanyahu’s campaign for the Iraq War is spelled out in detail in Dennis Fritz’s new book, Deadly Betrayal. The role of the Israel Lobby is spelled out in Ilan Pappé’s new book, Lobbying for Zionism on Both Sides of the Atlantic). The insurgency that hit US troops in Iraq set back the five-year timeline, but did not change the basic strategy.

The US has by now led or sponsored wars against Iraq (invasion in 2003), Lebanon (US funding and arming Israel), Libya (NATO bombing in 2011), Syria (CIA operation during 2010’s), Sudan (supporting rebels to break Sudan apart in 2011), and Somalia (backing Ethiopia’s invasion in 2006).

A prospective US war with Iran, ardently sought by Israel, is still pending.

Syria to face Libya or Sudan like situation

In a commentary published on December 09, 2024, a Middle East security expert at Princeton University says once the Syrian opposition gets rid of their common enemy and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be. Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Following is the text of the article:

The Baathist system in Syria, after nearly 60 years of rule, has been overthrown and Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow. Syria stood alongside Iran during its invasion by Saddam Hussein, and Iran, in turn, stood with the Syrian and Iraqi governments during the assault by the Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda on Syria and Iraq from 2011 to 2017.

The alliance of Russia, Iran and the Axis of Resistance led to the defeat of militant groups and the preservation of the sovereignty of these two Arab countries. However, at the same time, Assad's government had no alignment with democracy, and western and Arab leaders were fearful and angry about the extensive presence and influence of Iran and Russia in Syria. In any case, the overthrow of the Syrian political system has created a major shift in the region's geopolitics.

In the short term, Iran, Russia, Iraq and the Axis of Resistance will be the main losers from Assad's downfall. The collapse of the Assad government will be a major blow to the axis, weakening Iran's geopolitical influence in the region.

Syria has been the only land route for the supply and transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, and cutting off this route not only creates a strategic challenge for Hezbollah but also weakens Iran's leverage in the Palestinian issue. Moreover, the potential spread of insecurity to Iraq and Iran - and the weakening of Iran's diplomatic support - are significant consequences for Iran and the axis.

Turkey main winner

The fall of the Syrian government could also pose threats to Iraq's security, both in terms of the Kurdish region and from the aspirations of extremist groups for Sunni-majority areas in the country, as well as the potential activation of IS sleeper cells.

In the short term, Israel might find an opportunity to further weaken Hezbollah and the axis in the entire region. However, the activities of new Islamist armed groups at its borders, the rise of Islamist movements and the potential impact on Syria's future stance on the Palestinian issue and the occupied Golan Heights could increase long-term national security threats for Israel.

In the short term, the US and the West will be winners because the fall of Assad will significantly reduce Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

However, the Islamist group that seized Damascus and toppled Assad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was proscribed as a terror organization by the Britain in 2017 and the US in 2018 because of its links to al-Qaeda. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa), who was designated a terrorist by the US in 2013.

It is uncertain how the collapse of Syria's secular government and the rise of Islamists will impact the long-term interests of the US, with the differing perspectives between the US and Turkey on the Kurdish issue, the ambiguity surrounding the future actions of the opposition and the prospect of increasing instability in the region.

Turkey is the main winner. Ankara may hope to resolve the Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey, exert more effective control over the Kurds and strengthen its role in the Palestinian issue, as well as cement alliances with like-minded groups in the region.

While Arab countries are also pleased with the reduction of Iran's influence in Syria, the military operations of HTS and other militant groups were managed and organied by Turkey, all of which have an affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Several Arab countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, are opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideology. Therefore, Turkey's power projection in the region and the Brotherhood's potential future dominance in Syria could be perceived as a new threat by some Arab countries.

Regarding the political future of Syria, two scenarios can be imagined: a peaceful transition to a new system; or a Libyan and Sudanese-style outcome.

A peaceful transition could be achieved if the opposition continues with its moderate rhetoric and actions. However, it is composed of diverse and fragmented groups that have united solely to eliminate a common enemy.

Once this shared enemy is removed and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be.

Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Another important factor is the conflicting interests of the many external actors, who will each try to increase their influence over Syria's situation in various ways.

In any scenario, future developments in Syria will have a significant impact on the region's geopolitics. Therefore, finding a solution that is acceptable to both regional and global powers is crucial.

In April 2017, at the Carnegie Conference in Washington, I proposed 10 principles for resolving the Syrian crisis: 1) Resolving the Syrian crisis through diplomacy, not war; 2) A face-saving solution for all the main parties involved;  3) Serious and collective cooperation to eradicate terrorism from Syria; 4) Preserving Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty; 5) Preventing the collapse of the Syrian army and security institutions; 6) Forming an inclusive government in Syria; 7) Building a new Syria based on the will and vote of the majority of the Syrian nation; 8) Ensuring the protection of minorities in Syria; 9) Holding free elections under the supervision of the United Nations regarding the new government and constitution of Syria; 10) A comprehensive package of economic aid for Syria's reconstruction, the return of refugees, and other humanitarian issues.

Although there was no receptive ear for these ideas at that time, today, these 10 principles could still be a comprehensive and sustainable package to resolve the Syrian crisis.

Courtesy: Tehran Times