This transformation is already in motion. US President
Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs signaled a move away from multilateralism.
The shift toward unilateralism and economic nationalism has been ushered in.
The rules-based global order, which once promoted free trade and transparency,
is on the decline.
For decades, the US championed institutions like the WTO,
enabling developing countries, including Pakistan, to engage in global trade
under shared rules. Now, the rise of "reciprocal tariffs" and
deal-making based on narrow self-interest marks a rejection of that system. In
such an environment, even close allies are vulnerable.
This shift is especially alarming for countries like
Pakistan. Larger powers may use economic tools or coercion to advance their
agendas, sidelining smaller economies. A coordinated international backlash to
protectionist policies is likely. While Pakistan may avoid retaliation, others
might not, raising the specter of a global trade war.
Trade wars have historically led to severe economic
disruptions. Pakistan, with low foreign exchange reserves and heavy reliance on
institutions like the IMF, lacks the resilience to absorb such shocks. Unlike
wealthier nations, it cannot offer major stimulus measures or safety nets.
Thus, Pakistani policymakers must proactively engage with
global powers, diversify trade relationships, and strengthen internal governance.
Strategic partnerships with like-minded nations and regional initiatives like
CPEC are essential, but overreliance on any one partner is risky. A
multi-vector foreign policy is key.
Domestically, political stability and unity are crucial. A
fragmented leadership weakens Pakistan’s ability to respond to global shifts.
The world order we knew is unlikely to return soon. Only countries that are
agile, united, and forward-looking will succeed.
Pakistan must not be passive. With vigilance, decisive
leadership, and strategic focus, it can navigate this turbulent global
landscape and secure a stable future.