Pleasing Trump may annoy Saudi Arabia

Energy diversification is smart, but foreign policy tact is essential.

Importing US crude oil may please US President Donald Trump, but it could also annoy Saudi Arabia, especially given the special relationship between Pakistan and the Kingdom, which includes:

Long standing energy ties
Saudi Arabia is Pakistan’s largest crude oil supplier, often providing oil on deferred payment (US$3 billion oil credit facility renewed multiple times).

Financial assistance
Saudi Arabia has provided billions in loans, deposits, and grants to support Pakistan’s economy, particularly during IMF negotiations.

Strategic alignment
The Saudi-Pakistan relationship is not just economic but also political and military, including defense cooperation and labor remittances.

Though, to begin with import of crude oil from United will be small, the move could strain ties between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Geopolitical optics
Importing US crude might be seen as Pakistan pivoting westward, especially if framed as part of a larger US trade deal.

Loss of market share

Even a 10% reduction in demand from a long-time buyer like Pakistan might raise commercial and symbolic concerns.

Trust and alignment issues

If the decision isn't communicated diplomatically, Riyadh may perceive it as ungrateful, especially if deferred payment oil continues.

Not necessarily a rupture

Scale is limited
Pakistan is not replacing Saudi oil. The pilot phase is just 10% of imports. It's a diversification move, not a shift in allegiance.

Economic logic
The US crude provides lighter grades and higher gasoline yield, improving domestic refining output. If positioned as a technical decision, it’s easier to justify.

Diplomatic communication
Pakistan can explain this as part of energy diversification—a common practice by many countries—and reaffirm its strategic ties with Riyadh.

Pakistan should do:

Step	Why it matters
Engage Saudi leadership in advance	Avoid surprises and reassure that US crude is a supplement, not a replacement
Reaffirm oil diplomacy	Continue or even expand the deferred payment arrangement with Saudi Arabia
Highlight refining needs	Explain that lighter crude grades improve fuel mix, not reduce strategic ties
Balance optics	Avoid appearing to pivot entirely toward US or using this purely as a bargaining chip in US trade diplomacy

 

Bottom Line

Importing US crude could cause diplomatic unease in Saudi Arabia—especially if it's perceived as Pakistan drifting from its long-standing partner. But the impact can be minimized through: 1) Transparent diplomacy, 2) Economic rationale, and 3) Strategic reassurance

 

China: Saudi Arabia emerges the biggest oil supplier

Chinese crude oil imports from Russia in August surged 28% from a year earlier, but handed back its top supplier ranking to Saudi Arabia for the first time in four months.

Imports of Russian oil, including supplies pumped via the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline and seaborne shipments from Russia's European and Far Eastern ports, totaled 8.342 million tons, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed.

The August amount, equivalent to 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd), was slightly off May's record of nearly 2 million bpd.

China is Russia's largest oil buyer.

Russian imports rose as Chinese independent refiners extended purchases of discounted Russian supplies that elbowed out rival cargoes from West Africa and Brazil.

Emma Li, China analyst with Vortexa Analytics, said actual Russian supplies are likely at par with Saudi shipments at close to 8.5 million tons. Several cargoes of Russian Urals crude were reported as originating in Malaysia, according to ship-tracking data she has compiled.

Tuesday's customs data showed imports from Malaysia, often used as a transfer point in the past two years for oil originating from Iran, Venezuela and more recently Russia, nearly doubled from a year earlier, to 3.37 million tons, or 794,000 bpd, at record high.

China's purchases from Russia have climbed to reap the benefits of a plunge in European buying as the Ukraine crisis pushes Moscow in search of alternative markets. 

Still, imports from Saudi Arabia rebounded last month to 8.475 million tons, or 1.99 million bpd, 5% above a year ago levels.

Saudi Arabia also remains the biggest supplier on a year-to-date basis, shipping 58.31 million tons of oil from January to August, down 0.3%YoY, as compared to 55.79 million tons from Russia, which was up 7.3% from a year ago.

China's crude oil imports in August fell 9.4% from a year earlier, as outages at state-run refineries and lower operations at independent plants caused by weak margins capped buying.

The strong Russian purchases continued to weigh on competing supplies from Angola and Brazil, which fell in August by 34% and 47%YoY, respectively.

Customs reported no imports from Venezuela or Iran last month. State oil firms have shunned purchases since late 2019 avoiding likely secondary US sanctions.

However, Reuters reported that defense-focused China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp (CASIC) has moved 25 million barrels of Venezuelan crude into China since late 2020, which Chinese customs does not report.

China also did not import any crude from the United States.