Saudi Arabia blames veto power abuse

Ambassador Abdulaziz Al-Wasil, Saudi Arabia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, criticized the abuse of veto power and reiterated the Kingdom’s call for a ceasefire in Gaza while addressing the United Nations General Assembly’s (UNGA) 10th emergency special session on Palestine.

The session focused on two key resolutions: one supporting the mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) and the other demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.

He also welcomed the ceasefire in Lebanon, condemning Israeli violations of the agreement, and emphasized the importance of UNRWA's role while denouncing Israeli actions against the agency, including targeted legislation and efforts to undermine its mandate.

The ambassador highlighted Saudi Arabia’s steadfast support for the Palestinian people, advocating for peace based on the two-state solution, the Arab Peace Initiative, and international legitimacy resolutions.

He called for active participation in the high-level international conference on resolving the Palestinian issue, which Saudi Arabia and France will co-chair in June in New York.

Al-Wasil also condemned Israeli attacks on Syrian territories, stressing that these violations undermine Syria’s stability and sovereignty.

He reaffirmed the Arab and Syrian identity of the occupied Golan Heights and condemned Israel’s continued disregard for international law.

During the session, the Saudi delegation voted in favor of both resolutions. The resolution supporting UNRWA’s mandate was adopted with 159 votes in favor, 9 against, and 11 abstentions. The resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza received 158 votes in favor, 9 against, and 13 abstentions.

The ambassador reaffirmed Saudi Arabia's commitment to promoting peace, condemning aggression, and supporting the Palestinian cause.

 

Shattering of Axis of Resistance

The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant and unexpected development for Iran, comparable in its surprise to the Taliban’s swift takeover of Kabul in 2021. Iran has been a steadfast ally of Assad, who thought the cost of resistance is less than the cost of compromise. Tehran provided Damascus with substantial military and financial support throughout the Syrian civil war. The sudden downfall of Assad’s government not only disrupts Iran’s strategic foothold in the Levant but also challenges its influence in the broader Middle East region.

The rapid fall of the Western-backed government in Kabul — with which Tehran had sought to engage diplomatically to maintain stability along Iran’s eastern border — similarly caught the Iranian leadership off guard. This event as well as Assad’s toppling both underscore the volatility of regional alliances and the complexities Iran faces in navigating its foreign policy objectives amid rapidly changing political landscapes.

While Iran had at least prepared for a scenario of the Taliban’s return and established some contacts and exchanges with the group even before the latter returned to power, the collapse of the Assad regime, described as a key link in the Axis of Resistance, came more suddenly.

Only a few days before the fall of Damascus to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Iran started evacuating its key assets and personnel, including high-ranking military advisors and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to save critical resources.

It is vital for Iran at this point to secure a role in shaping the future of Syria’s political landscape to prevent an adversarial government and to be able to preserve some level of strategic influence in the region.

Although the common border with Afghanistan is perhaps the number one security concern for Iran to the east, Syria’s strategic value cannot be overstated when it comes to Iran’s western flank.

Syria was the heart of the resistance, which provided a direct link to Hezbollah in Lebanon and supported Iran’s deterrence against Israel. Thus, losing Syria not only disrupts the Axis of Resistance but also weakens Iran’s ability to project power in the region.

In the absence of Iranian proxies on the ground, the resulting power vacuum is likely to be filled by Turkey or Saudi Arabia, which in turn could force Iran to redirect its focus to defending its interests in other places.

At home, the legitimacy of the Iranian regime was severely damaged by its violent crackdowns on the Mahsa Amini protests in late 2022-early 2023. At the same time, Iran’s broad and substantial investments in Syria and elsewhere, which many Iranians saw as a costly miscalculation, intensified public criticism and political dissent over neglected economic issues.

Fears that their country could follow a path toward civil war, similar to those in Syria and Libya, deterred some from advocating for regime change at any cost. If Syria now descends into another civil war with further destruction, it could validate these concerns. However, if Syria manages to form an inclusive and stable government free of revenge, it could inspire Iranians.

In the aftermath of Assad’s collapse, Tehran will likely recalibrate its regional strategy, strengthening its militia networks, particularly Hezbollah and Shi’a militias in Syria and Iraq as the primary focus. These will need to serve as Tehran’s primary tool for projecting power in the absence of a friendly Syrian government.

Iran may also attempt to expand its regional alliances with Russia and China to sustain its ambitions. However, given the outcome of its previous reliance on Moscow to protect the Assad regime, Iran may need to recalculate the level of Russian support it can truly expect.

Rethinking its Syria policy may additionally encourage Tehran to shift from overt to covert approaches — a potentially challenging aim due to Iran’s over-stretched resources.

Assad’s downfall marks a significant setback for Iran’s regional strategy, disrupting the latter’s network of alliances and diminishing its influence in the Levant.

Courtesy: Middle East Institute

 

 

 

Shia-Sunni Conflict in Syria to Get Louder

The current situation in Syria presents three significant implications. First, the recruitment of fighters, motivated by financial incentives or sectarian affiliations, is expected to rise. Second, the majority of these recruits are likely to come from the South Asian region. Videos circulating on social media already show individuals with Pashto or Hazara accents celebrating the withdrawal of Bashar al-Assad’s forces from key cities, leaving behind military-grade weapons, ammunition, and vehicles. Third, existing foot soldiers in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran may see new opportunities to leverage their combat experience, contributing to the rekindling of the Syrian conflict.

Shia militias, including the Zainabiyoun Brigade and other groups from Iraq, are also being drawn into the conflict. As a result, Syria is poised to become the site of escalating sectarian violence, with Sunni and Shia factions, supported by various regional and international actors, facing off.

What Impact Will This Have on the Gaza War?

How will these developments affect the ongoing conflict in Gaza? Will they weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon? And what strategic advantages might Israel and its regional or international allies gain?

Currently, Hamas is on the defensive, and the Syrian situation could demoralize its forces if Bashar al-Assad and his allies lose their grip on power, potentially drawing them into direct confrontation with rebel factions.

Iran and Russia are already evacuating some of their officials, but sectarian fighters loyal to the Assad regime will likely remain in Syria, continuing their resistance. Aerial support for Assad’s forces may still come from select countries, but unless a similar conflict arises in Iraq—where Sunni militias start pushing against Shia factions—a complete collapse of the Assad regime seems unlikely.

A Possible Escalation: Assad's Last Resort?

If Bashar al-Assad feels cornered and believes he must evacuate, he could resort to an extreme measure: launching a direct attack on Israel. What might such an assault look like?

First, a safe zone could be established for Iranian, Russian, or Syrian officials in the border region of Iraq, enabling them to continue strategizing and coordinating efforts in Syria and beyond.

Second, there would be a need for a large influx of Shia fighters into Syria and Lebanon to counteract new rebel offensives or Israeli airstrikes against Assad’s regime. These fighters could also act as conduits for weapons flowing into Lebanon, strengthening Hezbollah and other allies.

Coupled with aerial support, these forces could give Assad a better chance of reclaiming lost territories.

Wider Regional Implications: Yemen and Saudi Arabia

The sectarian tensions in Syria could also spill over into other parts of the region, particularly Yemen and Saudi Arabia, exacerbating existing conflicts there.

OPEC Plus extend production cuts

Saudi Arabia and seven other OPEC Plus countries have decided on Thursday to extend their oil production cuts for another three months, until the end of March 2025.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April 2023 and November 2023, held a virtual meeting on Thursday on the sideline of the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM).

These countries will extend their additional voluntary adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day, that were announced in November 2023, until the end of March 2025 and then the 2.2 million barrels per day adjustments will be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026 to support market stability. This monthly increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions," OPEC Plus said in a statement carried by Saudi Press Agency.

The virtual meeting was held to reinforce the precautionary efforts of OPEC Plus countries, aiming to support the stability and balance of oil markets. These countries decided, in addition to the latest decisions from the 38th ONOMM, to extend the additional voluntary adjustments of 1.65 million barrels per day that were announced in April 2023, until the end of December 2026.

"In the spirit of transparency and collaboration, the meeting welcomed the pledges made by the overproducing countries to achieve full conformity and resubmit their updated compensation schedule to the OPEC Secretariat for the overproduced volumes since Jan 2024 before the end of December 2024 as agreed in the 52nd Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee. The compensation period will be extended until the end of June 2026," the statement said.

  

MBS Announces Red Sea Sustainability Strategy

Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman unveiled on Wednesday the National Red Sea Sustainability Strategy. This initiative aims to protect the Red Sea, empower local communities, and transition to a blue economy, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030 and the recently announced national priorities for research, development, and innovation (RDI), particularly in the areas of sustainable environment and essential needs.

Speaking on the occasion, the Crown Prince emphasized Saudi Arabia’s efforts to unlock its vast economic, geographical and cultural potential while championing sustainability and environmental conservation.

He described the strategy as pivotal in establishing the blue economy as a core component of the Kingdom’s diversified economy.

“The Kingdom aspires for the Red Sea region to become a global reference for leading blue economy activities and reaffirms its commitment to a sustainable future for the Red Sea,” he said, calling for collective efforts to safeguard the Red Sea coast and the communities that rely on it.

The Red Sea, covering 186,000 square kilometers with a coastline stretching 1,800 kilometers, is one of the world’s most bio-diverse regions. It is home to the fourth-largest barrier reef system, 6.2% of global coral reefs, and hundreds of islands.

The strategy outlines a comprehensive framework to preserve and regenerate these natural treasures while ensuring their enjoyment and sustainability for future generations. It also demonstrates how protecting the environment can unlock the economic potential of the region and initiate the transition to a blue economy.

This transition will create investment opportunities in various marine sectors such as ecotourism, fisheries, renewable energy, water desalination, shipping, and industry.

A key component of the strategy is its ambitious vision for 2030. It aims to expand marine and coastal protected areas from 3% to 30%, increase the contribution of renewable energy to 50% of the energy mix, and create thousands of new jobs linked to blue economy activities.

Furthermore, it seeks to safeguard Saudi Arabia’s substantial investments in coastal tourism, which are expected to make significant contributions to the national GDP.

The strategy is built around five main objectives: Environmental Sustainability, Economic Development, Social Development, Safety and Security, and Governance and Collaboration. Within this framework, 48 targeted initiatives have been developed to support the Kingdom’s aspirations for the blue economy.

Saudi-French Investment Forum begins in Riyadh today

“Invest in Saudi Arabia" will host the Saudi-French Investment Forum in Riyadh on Tuesday. The forum, under the slogan "Saudi Vision 2030 - France's Plan 2030: Mutual Investment across Visions", is being held on the occasion of the state visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Saudi Arabia, the Saudi Press Agency reports.

The forum will include dialogue sessions bringing together Saudi and French ministers; senior executives, and prominent business leaders from both countries. They will discuss partnership opportunities between the two countries, long-term cooperation, innovation, and mutual growth in vital sectors.

The speakers will also address topics of critical importance to the future of both countries, including leveraging digital transformation, advancing green energy initiatives, and enhancing cultural exchange.

The forum is an extension of the remarkable achievements made in investment relations between the Kingdom and France, as France is the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the Kingdom among the G20 countries. The FDI flows from France to Saudi Arabia amounted to more than SR11.2 billion in 2023.

The French companies obtained 503 investment licenses in the Kingdom and these included 117 licenses issued during the year 2024, of which 33 companies have regional headquarters in the Kingdom

GCC Summit begins in Kuwait today

The 45th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit is scheduled to begin in Kuwait on Sunday (today). It aims at bringing together leaders and representatives from member states to discuss pressing regional and international issues to bolster sustainable development, regional security, and stability.

The summit will focus on a range of critical issues, including regional security, economic integration, and responses to mounting regional and international challenges.

Leaders are expected to deliberate on enhancing the GCC joint market, fostering technology cooperation, advancing infrastructural linkages, and addressing political files such as Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.

Established in 1981, the GCC includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, with an annual goal of strengthening cooperation across economic, political, and security domains.

Experts and officials have highlighted the significance of the summit, particularly during a period of heightened regional and international instability.

The GCC leaders are expected to reiterate their commitment to unity and collaboration, ensuring that the council continues to play a central role in addressing the region’s evolving challenges while fostering stability and prosperity for member states

China lauds progress in Iran-Saudi ties

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has expressed strong support for the constructive interactions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, emphasizing their role in fostering enduring good neighborly relations.

During a press briefing, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian noted that Saudi-Iran relations have been on a positive trajectory and China appreciates this progress. 

Lin Jian stated that Saudi Arabia and Iran have been engaging in positive interactions at various levels, further solidifying their reconciliation and playing a crucial role in fostering regional peace and stability. 

China remains committed to supporting both nations as they advance together, enhancing mutual trust, and achieving enduring good-neighborly relations and friendship, the spokesman said. 

The remarks come after several high-ranking visits between Iran and Saudi Arabia took place in the past month. 

Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic ties in March of 2023 under a China-brokered deal. The two West Asian countries have agreed to move towards establishing a security cooperation pact.

 

Saudi Arabia convenes Arab Islamic Summit

Saudi Arabia has announced to hold a joint Arab-Islamic follow-up summit in the Kingdom on November 11, 2024 to discuss the continued Israeli aggression on the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, in addition to the current developments in the region.

This is in line with the directives of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and in continuation of the efforts made by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in coordination with leaders of other Arab and Islamic countries. The summit will be held as an extension of the joint Arab-Islamic summit held in Riyadh on November 11, 2023.

Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its condemnation and denunciation of the crimes and violations that are being perpetrated by the Israeli occupation authorities against the Palestinian people, apart from the continuing Israeli attacks and violations against the people of Lebanon.

This is in light of the Kingdom's follow-up of the current developments in the region, as well as the continued sinful Israeli aggression on the occupied Palestinian territories, and its expansion to include the Lebanese Republic in an attempt to undermine its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the serious repercussions of this aggression on the security and stability of the region, the Saudi Press Agency said in a statement.

Saudi Arabia-Iran joint naval exercise

According to the Tehran Times, the head of the Iranian Army Navy has announced that Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in a joint naval exercise, a move aimed at strengthening regional cooperation.

Rear Admiral Shahram Irani highlighted the Iranian Navy's operations in the Red Sea, noting that Saudi Arabia has proposed a combined exercise in that region. Both nations have extended invitations to each other concerning their presence in the ports.

Irani added that both sides' initiatives include plans for a bilateral exercise and potential involvement from other nations. 

“Coordination efforts are currently in progress, and delegations from both countries will engage in necessary discussions regarding the execution of the exercise,” the commander emphasized.

This collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially pave the way for further dialogue and de-escalation of tensions in the region, benefiting both countries and the broader international community.

Military observers from both parties will be attentively assessing the results of this exercise and the possible effects it could have on the geopolitical dynamics of West Asia.

This proposed joint naval exercise in the Red Sea would mark the third instance of military cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the region.

In 2018, the two nations, alongside Oman and Pakistan, participated in a joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean under the banner of the "Coalition of Friendship”.

This week, Iran concluded a joint naval drill in its southern waters, with Saudi Arabia among the participating nations.
 

 

Gaza War Dooms Biden’s Plan

According to David B. Ottaway, a year after the onset of the Israel-Hamas War, the Biden Administration’s plan for a new Middle East security architecture anchored in an alliance between the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia is dead for the foreseeable future.

Its death is another victim of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to allow an independent Palestinian state as a basis for a solution to the conflict that most countries, including the United States, are demanding.

Before the war started, US diplomats were making progress in nudging Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) toward establishing ties with the Jewish state. Both the crown prince and Biden were talking optimistically about Saudi recognition of, and open cooperation with, the Jewish state.

Two of Saudi Arabia’s closest allies, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain had already taken that step in the 2020 Abraham Accords.

Biden was enticing MBS with a formal US-Saudi defense treaty to protect the kingdom from its chief enemy, Iran. The Palestinian cause was fading, in the minds of Arab leaders, and Israel was on the verge of fulfilling its dream of winning recognition from the Middle East’s Arab powerhouse. 

The Gaza War halted all this momentum in its tracks, and there is no ceasefire in sight. The Israeli military has occupied all of Gaza and, in the process, killed nearly 42,000 Palestinian civilians and Hamas fighters, displaced most of its 2.2 million Palestinian population from their homes, and inflicted massive damage on its infrastructure.

This has caused even Arab leaders with no love for Hamas because of its Islamic roots, refusal to recognize the Jewish state, and ties to Iran to harden calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Nowhere is this shift in the attitude of Arab leaders better on display than in Saudi Arabia. In an interview with Fox News on September 20, just 17 days before the Hamas attack, MBS went out of his way to deny reports that US-led negotiations over Saudi normalization of relations with Israel were in trouble.

To the contrary, he said, “every day we get closer” toward what he called “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War.” He made no demand for a Palestinian state as a precondition, just that Israel “ease the life of the Palestinians.”

On September 19, 2024 he delivered quite a starkly different message at the annual opening of his kingdom’s consultative Shoura Council.

The Palestinian cause was “at the forefront” of Saudi attention, and he was working tirelessly to see the establishment of a Palestinian state.

He warned, “We affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that.” He thanked the 143 countries that had already recognized a Palestinian state and urged others to follow suit.

If Saudi Arabia hews to this precondition, then the new Middle East the Biden administration has worked tirelessly to birth seems doomed, at least without a radical change in Israeli thinking and government.

Saudi Arabia slams Israeli statements regarding Philadelphi Corridor

Saudi Arabia strongly condemned the recent Israeli statements with regard to the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow band along Gaza’s border with Egypt.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed the Kingdom’s strong condemnation and denunciation of the Israeli statements regarding the Philadelphi Corridor, and the futile attempts to justify the continued Israeli violations of international laws and norms. In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency, the ministry vowed its solidarity and support for Egypt in the face of these Israeli allegations.

Saudi Arabia warned of the consequences of these provocative statements, and their repercussions in undermining the mediation efforts being undertaken by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States of America, to reach a permanent ceasefire.

The ministry stated that such provocative statements would increase the severity of the dangerous escalation witnessed by the region. It also emphasized the importance of putting an end to the suffering of the Palestinian people, and the necessity of concerted international efforts to enable them to exercise their inherent right to self-determination, and establish their independent state on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The ministry statement comes in the wake of the recent statement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the Philadelphi Corridor will be under the control of Israel in any ceasefire deal.

Saudi Arabia condemns storming Al-Aqsa

According to Saudi Gazette, the Kingdom has condemned in the strongest terms the blatant and repeated incursions by Israeli occupation forces and a number of settlers into Al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem on Tuesday.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs renewed the Kingdom’s warning of the consequences of the continuation of such violations of international law and the historical status of the city of Jerusalem.

The Israeli acts also provoke the sentiments of millions of Muslims around the world, especially in light of the humanitarian catastrophe witnessed by the people of Palestine, the statement pointed out.

While emphasizing the importance of respecting religious sanctity, the ministry called on the international community to assume its responsibility towards stopping the ongoing Israeli violations of international law and relevant international legitimacy resolutions.

According to reports, more than 2,000 illegal Israeli settlers stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque complex on Tuesday morning, under the heavy protection of Israeli troops, to perform a religious event. The act provoked tensions with Palestinian Muslims present at the holy site, the Jordan-run Islamic Endowments Department said in a statement.

Approximately 2,250 Israeli settlers toured the complex and conducted Talmudic religious rituals. It was also reported that Israeli settlers were seen waving Israeli flags while storming the complex of the mosque.

The settlers’ entry into the Al-Aqsa Mosque complex came in response to a call from extremist Jewish groups to commemorate Tisha B’Av, an annual Jewish fast day that marks the occurrence of several disasters in Jewish history, official Palestinian news agency Wafa reported.

The settlers entered the mosque through the western Al-Mugharbah Gate, a route frequently used during such incursions, it added.

Saudi Arabia must resist buying US arms

To create the justification for the sale of lethal arms to Israel, the United States has also decided to lift ban on sale of arms to Saudi Arabia. We are of the opinion that Saudi Arabia must resist wasting its money on buying weapons.

The new US mantra is that the Kingdom need weapons amid turmoil in the Middle East following Hamas' deadly attack on Israel and fears of war in the Middle East.

According to the United States, the decision comes as the threat level in the region has been heightened since late last month, with Iran and Lebanon's powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group vowing to retaliate against Israel after Hamas' political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.

One may recall that in the past United States had sold weapons worth billions of dollars, using its mantra, “Iran is a bigger threat for Saudi Arabia as compared to Israel”.

Our perspective is that the Middle East in general and Saudi Arabia in particular does not fear any attack on its soil from any country except United States and its proxy Israel.

Reportedly, the Biden administration has decided to lift a ban on sale of US offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, reversing a three-year-old policy to pressure the kingdom to wind down the Yemen war. Reuters was first to report the decision earlier.

The State Department was lifting its suspension on certain transfers of air-to-ground munitions to Saudi Arabia, a senior department official confirmed.

"We will consider new transfers on a typical case-by-case basis consistent with the Conventional Arms Transfer Policy," the official said.

The administration briefed Congress this week on its decision to lift the ban, a congressional aide said. One source said sales could resume as early as next week. The US government was moving ahead on Friday afternoon with notifications about a sale, a person briefed on the matter said.

"The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours," a senior Biden administration official said.

Under US law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are made final. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years, citing issues including the toll on civilians of its campaign in Yemen and a range of human rights concerns.

But that opposition has softened amid turmoil in the Middle East following Hamas' deadly October 07, 2023 attack on Israel and because of changes in the conduct of the campaign in Yemen.

Since March 2022 - when the Saudis and Houthis entered into an UN-led truce - there have not been any Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and cross-border fire from Yemen into the kingdom has largely stopped, the administration official said.

"We also note the positive steps that the Saudi Ministry of Defense have taken over the past three years to substantially improve their civilian harm mitigation processes, in part thanks to the work of US trainers and advisors," the State Department official said

Yemen's war is seen as one of several proxy battles between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis ousted a Saudi-backed government from Sanaa in late 2014 and have been at war against a Saudi-led military alliance since 2015, a conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and left 80% of Yemen's population dependent on humanitarian aid.

Biden adopted the tougher stance on weapons sales to Saudi Arabia in 2021, citing the kingdom's campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, which has inflicted heavy civilian casualties.

Ties between the kingdom and the United States have warmed since then, as Washington has worked more closely with Riyadh in the aftermath of Hamas' October 07 attack to devise a plan for post-war Gaza.

The Biden administration also has been negotiating a defense pact and an agreement for civil nuclear cooperation with Riyadh as part of a broad deal that envisions Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel, although that remains an elusive goal.

The Houthis have emerged as a strong supporter of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in its war against Israel. Earlier this year, they attacked commercial ships that they said are linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports.

OPEC oil output increases in July

According to Reuters, OPEC oil output rose in July, as a rebound in Saudi Arabian supply and small increases elsewhere offsetting the impact of ongoing voluntary supply cuts by other members and the wider OPEC Plus alliance.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 26.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up 100,000 bpd from June.

The increase comes despite OPEC Plus keeping in place most of its output cuts until the end of 2025 to bolster the market in the face of tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising US production.

A meeting of top OPEC Plus ministers on Thursday kept oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start unwinding one layer of output cuts from October, and repeating that the hike could be paused or reversed if needed.

Saudi Arabia provided the largest supply boost last month of 70,000 bpd, as exports rebounded from June when they were lower than expected. Production reached 9 million bpd in July, close to the kingdom's target.

Nigeria had the biggest decline of 30,000 bpd, with exports lower month on month.

Small increases came from Libya and Iran, two of the members not required to cut output, and from Iraq. Iranian output reached 3.22 million bpd, the highest since 2018.

Iran has been boosting exports in the last few years despite US sanctions remaining in place. Iraq's output edged higher with exports increasing month on month, flows data showed and a tanker-tracking source said.

OPEC pumped about 240,000 bpd more than the implied target for the nine members covered by supply cut agreements, with Iraq still accounting for the bulk of the excess, the survey found.

The Reuters aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, LSEG flows data, information from companies that track flows - such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler - and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.

OPEC Plus unlikely to change oil output policy

According to Reuters, a mini OPEC Plus ministerial meeting scheduled next month is unlikely to recommend changing the group's output policy, including a plan to start unwinding one layer of oil output cuts from October.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, commonly known as OPEC Plus, will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) on August o1, 2024 to review the market.

Reuters says the meeting would serve as a "pulse check" for the health of the market.

Oil has risen in 2024 and was trading around US$85 a barrel on Thursday, finding support from Middle East conflict and falling inventories. Concern about higher for longer interest rates and demand has limited gains this year.

Reuters says, neither the Saudi government communications office returned a request for comment nor OPEC's headquarters in Vienna responded to a request for comment.

OPEC Plus has cut output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand, in a series of steps agreed since late 2022.

At its last meeting in June, OPEC Plus agreed to extend cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025 and to prolong the most recent layer of cuts, a 2.2 million bpd cut by eight members for three months until the end of September 2024.

OPEC Plus is anticipated to gradually phase out the cuts of 2.2 million bpd over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, asked this week if the market was strong enough to take the extra volume from October, did not rule out tweaks to the agreement if needed.

"Now we have such an option (of output increase), as we said earlier, we will always evaluate the current situation," Novak said.

In June, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman had said OPEC Plus could pause or reverse the production hikes if it decided the market is not strong enough.

The JMMC usually meets every two months and can make recommendations to change policy which could then be discussed and ratified in a full OPEC Plus ministerial meeting of all members.

 

World must know ten things about Pezeshkian

After Ebrahim Raisi, an arch-conservative elected to the presidency in 2021, was killed in a helicopter crash in May, Iran had to call a snap election. The winner is 69 year old Masoud Pezeshkian, labelled reformist. As tensions continue to increase across the Middle East, and with Iran-United States relations at a low point, following are 10 things you should know about the new president.

1. Pezeshkian was one of only six candidates approved to run for president by Iran’s Guardian Council, which supervises the country’s elections, and the only reformist candidate among them. In Friday’s run-off, he defeated conservative hardliner Saeed Jalili. Eighty people had tried to run for president but almost all of them were blocked by the Council, including former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

2. While his late predecessor Raisi was a trained cleric, Pezeshkian is a medical doctor – a heart surgeon in fact. His political career began when he was appointed deputy health minister (1997-2001) and then health minister (2001-2005) in the government of the last reformist Iranian president Mohammad Khatami. He went on to become a five-term member of Iran’s parliament and a deputy speaker.

3. The new president takes a more liberal line on the enforcement of the compulsory headscarf in Iran. “If we want to ‘force’ hijab in the country,” he has said, “I don’t think we will get anywhere.” After the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, Pezeshkian wrote that it was “unacceptable in the Islamic Republic to arrest a girl for her hijab and then hand over her dead body to her family.”

4. Pezeshkian’s campaign slogan is “For Iran,” which is believed to be a not so subtle reference to the popular anthem supporting the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests called “Baraye”, or “For.” Shervin Hajipour, the Grammy Awarding-winning Iranian singer-songwriter behind “Baraye,” was sentenced to more than three years in prison in March for “propaganda against the system” and “encouraging people to protest.”

5. The new president says he wants better relations with the West and the United States, in particular, and seems to also want a return to the nuclear deal that Barack Obama signed, Donald Trump tore up, and Joe Biden has refused to resurrect. Pezeshkian even deployed former Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, one of the architects of the deal, as a surrogate on the campaign trail.

6. Pezeshkian, nevertheless, like most Iranian politicians, has a long history of denouncing the United States “The Great Satan”. In 2019, when Iran shot down an American drone, Pezeshkian said “the real terrorist is America” and described the targeting of the drone as “a strong punch in the mouths of the leaders of criminal America.”

7. Pezeshkian, a reformist, isn’t shy about defending the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has huge power and influence inside Iran. It was controversially designated a foreign terrorist organization by the Trump administration. The Iran-Iraq War veteran even once wore an IRGC military uniform in parliament as a show of support for the organization, which he says is “different” to what it was in the past.

8. Persians are the ethnic majority in Iran, but Pezeshkian is the son of an Azeri father and a Kurdish mother, and fluent in both Azeri and Kurdish. “I am not voting for Dr Pezeshkian because I am a Turk,” one Azeri voter told IranWire, “but because if he is elected, he will be the president of the oppressed and discriminated minority of this country.”

9. Like President Joe Biden, who lost his wife and young daughter in a car crash in 1972, the new Iranian president also lost his wife and young daughter in a car crash in 1994. Unlike Biden, Pezeshkian “never remarried and raised his remaining two sons and a daughter alone.”

10. Pezeshkian may have won his race thanks to a late surge in voter turnout. The first round of the election saw the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic, just 40%. But on Friday, in the run-off, it bumped up to around 50%.

For some Iranians, reported the Washington Post, “refusing to vote is an act of opposition in a country that quells political protests with violent force.” Others have embraced political apathy because of the failure of multiple presidents from across the political spectrum to effect social or economic change.

Pezeshkian has acknowledged the challenge ahead. “I will do everything possible to look at those who were not seen by the powerful and whose voices are not heard,” he told supporters earlier this week.

But what does “everything possible” look like for an elected Iranian president inside of a political system where most of the power remains in the hands of an unelected Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei?

Can the Islamic Republic’s first reformist president for 19 years offer real hope or change to almost 90 million Iranians, more than half of whom are under the age of 30? That remains to be seen.

And how will the United States respond to an Iranian leader who wants to mend ties with the West?

 

World leaders congratulate Pezeshkian

Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has received warm congratulatory messages from across the world, including the leaders of neighboring countries and prominent international organizations.

They have called for strengthening relations and cooperation with the Islamic Republic on global and regional issues.

Putin praises “constructive” ties 

Russian leader Vladimir Putin congratulated Pezeshkian on his victory in the presidential runoff and attached significance to the improvement of ties with Iran. 

"I hope that your activity as president will facilitate the further boosting of constructive bilateral cooperation on all tracks to benefit our friendly peoples, in the interests of easing regional security and stability," he said in a statement published on the Kremlin website. 

The Russian president said Moscow and Tehran "efficiently coordinate efforts in resolving the pressing issues of the international agenda".

Addressing Pezeshkian, he said in the statement, "I wish you success, good health and prosperity."

Both Iran and Russia have been targeted by stiff Western sanctions. 

Xi commends strategic mutual trust

The Chinese president issued a similar message. 

"I attach great importance to the development of China-Iran relations and am willing to work with the President to lead the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership towards deeper advancement," state news agency Xinhua cited Xi Jinping as saying.

Xi added that Iran and China "have a long history of friendly exchanges, and bilateral relations have maintained healthy and stable development... for over half a century."

He also highlighted strategic partnership between Tehran and Beijing. 

"Faced with complex regional and international situations, China and Iran have always supported each other, worked together and continued to consolidate strategic mutual trust. This has not only brought benefits to our two countries' peoples, but has also made active contributions to promoting regional and world peace and stability," the Chinese president said.

Saudi Arabia demands stronger ties  

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called for promoting ties with Iran as he congratulated Pezeshkian after winning the presidential election run-off.

“I affirm my keenness on developing and deepening the relations between our countries and people and serve our mutual interests,” Saudi Arabia’s state news agency, SPA, quoted bin Salman as saying.

Last year, a China-brokered deal saw Riyadh and Tehran re-establish diplomatic relations after years of tensions. The two Persian Gulf countries have since increased regular contact in an effort to bolster ties.

Iraq seeks closer ties 

The Iraqi president wished Pezeshkian success in his duties and in “fulfilling the ambitions and aspirations or the Iranian people”.

“We affirm our keenness to strengthen relations between Iraq and Iran in a way that serves the interests of the two neighboring countries and peoples,” Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid said in a message to Iran’s president-elect. 

Senior Iraqi Shia leader Ammar al-Hakim, a former leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and current head of the National Wisdom Movement, also sent congratulations and expressed hope that Pezeshkian can help resolve regional differences.

Other Persian Gulf Arab leaders, including Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said of Oman and Sheikh Mishal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah of Kuwait also extended their congratulations to the Iranian president-elect. 

Pakistan pushes for closer relations 

The Pakistani prime minister called for efforts to “ensure a bright future” for the two neighbors. 

“Heartiest congratulations to my brother Dr. Massoud Pezeshkian on his victory in Iran's presidential elections! I look forward to working closely with President-elect Dr. Pezeshkian to further strengthen Pakistan-Iran bilateral ties & promote regional peace & stability. As neighboring countries, Pakistan & Iran enjoy a close & historic relationship.

We must ensure a bright future for our two peoples through mutually beneficial cooperation’” Shehbaz Sharif wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. 

The Pakistani president also hoped that Tehran-Islamabad relations will grow under the Pezeshkian presidency.

“Pakistan looks forward to working together with Iran for the peace and prosperity of the region,” Asif Ali Zardari said. 

India hails long-standing relationship 

The prime minister of India also extended his congratulations to the newly elected Iranian president.

“Congratulations @drpezeshkian on your election as the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Looking forward to working closely with you to further strengthen our warm and long-standing bilateral relationship for the benefit of our peoples and the region,” Narendra Modi said in a post on X. 

South Korea wishes Iran prosperity 

In East Asia, South Korea expressed hope for improving relations between Tehran and Seoul.  

“We wish Iran a path of prosperity and development under the new government, contributing constructively to regional stability. We look forward to further enhancing our friendly relations with Iran,” South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Malaysia urges fruitful collaboration 

The Malaysian prime minister said in a message to Pezeshkian that the outcome of Iran’s election reflects the vibrant spirit of Iranian democracy and heralds a promising future for the country.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said with its rich and ancient civilization, Iran occupies a unique and prominent place in world history, and the potential for Malaysia-Iran relations is immense and filled with promise.

“We look forward to strengthening our bilateral mechanisms to deepen and broaden cooperation between the two countries. We are committed to collaborating on international platforms such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and the Developing-8 (D8),” the Malaysian leader said. 

“I look forward to welcoming Pezeshkian to Malaysia at the earliest opportunity,” he said.

Syrian president hails strategic relationship 

In Syria, President Bashar al-Assad expressed hope in a message to Pezeshkian that Tehran and Damascus will cement their “strategic” ties. 

“We will work with you to boost the Syrian-Iranian strategic relationship and open new promising horizons for bilateral cooperation as resistance will remain the common approach that we follow in order to preserve the pride of our countries and defend the interests of their peoples,” al-Assad said.

The Syrian president added in his message, “Your country, which is impregnable as it has always been, is one of the most important countries with which we are keen to ensure that the relationship is at its peak because this relationship is based on roots established through decades of mutual respect, common understanding and firm principles to which Syria and Iran have always adhered.”

Aliyev invites Pezeshkian to visit Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan’s president extended an invitation to Pezeshkian to visit his country.  

“I heartily congratulate you on your election as the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. I invite you to pay a visit to Azerbaijan to exchange views on the prospects for development of our bilateral cooperation,” Ilham Aliyev said in a letter to the Iranian newly elected president. 

He also threw a spotlight on friendly ties between Iran and Azerbaijan. 

“We attach great importance to the relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran built on solid foundations such as common religious and cultural roots, friendship and brotherhood. Today, the agreements reached on the future development areas of Azerbaijan-Iran relations based on mutual respect and good neighborliness and the implemented joint projects serve the well-being of our countries, the sustainable development and security of the region as a whole,” he said. 

Armenia PM hails warm, friendly ties 

The Armenian premier also called for deepening bilateral relations in a congratulatory message to Pezeshkian. 

"Relations with the brother country of the Islamic Republic of Iran are of special importance for the government and people of the Republic of Armenia, which has been continuously developing since the declaration of independence of Armenia," Nikol Pashinyan said.

"Continuous deepening of warm relations between Armenia and Iran in the field of bilateral cooperation and stability and prosperity of the region is of particular importance," he added.

"I am confident that with the joint efforts of our governments, the agreements reached between the Republic of Armenia and the Islamic Republic of Iran will be implemented and we will jointly implement a number of new programs for the welfare of the friendly people of Armenia and Iran," Armenia’s prime minister concluded. 

Venezuela calls for confronting hegemony 

Venezuela hailed Iran for its “commitment demonstrated to democracy” during the two rounds of elections.

“Venezuela expresses its conviction that the decision made by the Iranian people will contribute to the prosperity of this nation, as well as its consolidation as an emerging power in the nascent multipolar world,” Venezuela’s foreign minister said. 

Yvan Gil said Pezeshkian will have the “absolute support” of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his government with the aim of expanding relations and continuing to defeat “the hegemonic pretensions that threaten multilateralism and world peace”.

Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year strategic cooperation plan in 2022 in Tehran.

Both countries have been under US sanctions.

Lukashenko urges strategic partnership 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in a congratulatory message to Pezeshkian that he is convinced the two countries will promote ties.  

“The dialogue between Minsk and Tehran at all levels is steadily expanding. I am convinced that in the near future we will be able to implement all the agreements reached, including those on raising the level of the Belarusian-Iranian relations to a strategic partnership,” Lukashenko said. 

Serbia sends message of hope 

The Serbian President also congratulated Iran’s president-elect.

“Sincere congratulations to Iranian President 

@drpezeshkian. Your victory reflects citizens' trust in your vision for the future, dedication to peace, and desire for your country's progress. I am confident that your leadership will bring prosperity and well-being to your people,” Aleksandar Vucic said in a post on X. 

SCO “committed to working with Iran” 

 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is among international organization that congratulated Pezeshkian on his election as Iran’s president. 

“The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is committed to working with Iran to jointly achieve sustainable development as the main guarantor of global stability, ensuring regional security and a mechanism for equality,” Zhang Ming, the organization’s secretary general, said in his congratulatory message. 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an intergovernmental entity formed in 1996 by the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, aims to foster multilateral security, economic, and political cooperation. 

Iran's membership was initially agreed upon during late President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on September 17, 2021, and later ratified by the Iranian parliament on November 27, 2022. The formal announcement of Iran's membership occurred during a virtual summit of SCO heads of state on July 4, 2023.

 

Iran: Presidential election and there after

In the Iranian presidential election being held today, six handpicked candidates are participating. Though, the scanty details have started pouring in, these are mostly tweaked. The details coming from western media are aimed at proving that elections are eyewash. The western media is also busy in creating discontent among the Iranians and using a few dissent voices.

Ironically, the presidential debate in the United States is engrossed in self-created issues of United States, i.e. trade war with China, Russia-Ukraine conflict and above all on going genocide in Gaza by Israel. All these issues have been created and garnered by military complexes that are the key donors of election campaigns in United States for ages.

One may recall that once there was a ban on export of oil from United States, now the country has attained the status of major oil and gas producing and exporting country. The lust for getting complete control over energy trade is touching new highs.

Therefore, the United States wants to keep Iran out of energy trade. However, the bigger objective is, not to allow Iran to become a regional power. Saudi Arab – Iran animosity has been used for more than five decades to keep Iran out of energy trade and luring Saudi Arabia to buy more and more lethal weapons.

Since Islamic revolution in Iran, United States has tried to sponsor anti-cleric groups but failed miserably. The US has killed many of the Iranian scientists and commanders, with close coordination with Israel. The elimination of President Ebrahim Raisi was an attempt to disrupt the process of choosing the successor of Rahbar Ali Khamenei.

The United States is also annoyed by the growing cordial diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. The biggest disturbing point is that in case these two countries become friend, not only US hegemony in the region will be reduced but the two countries will get control over oil and gas moving through Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.

Whatever may be the outcome of Iranian elections, United States remains adamant at imposing new sanctions of Iran, keeping it out of energy trade and disrupting normalization of Saudi-Iranian relations. The bigger objective is to support Israel in killing Gazans and get control over the tiny piece of land extra rich in oil and gas.

 

  

 

 

Saudi Arab-China to strengthen relations

Saudi Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman and his Chinese counterpart Lt. Gen. Dong Jun discussed the ways to further strengthen Saudi-Chinese bilateral relations in Beijing on Tuesday.

This is within the framework of the strategic defense partnership between the two countries that aimed to serve mutual interests and fulfill the aspirations of the leadership of the two nations. The two leaders also discussed joint coordination efforts to maintain international peace and security.

Several high-ranking Saudi officials attended the meeting. They included Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Fayyad Al-Ruwaili, Saudi Ambassador to China Abdulrahman Al-Harbi; Commander of the Strategic Missile Force Lt. Gen. Jarallah Al-Alweet, Director General of the Office of the Minister of Defense Hisham bin Abdulaziz bin Saif, Head of the Armed Forces Operations Authority Maj. Gen. Misfer Al-Ghanem, and Military Attaché at the Saudi Embassy in Beijing Commodore Salem Al-Maliki.

Several senior Chinese officials also attended the meeting and they included Deputy Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Central Military Commission Lt. Gen. Jing Jianfeng, and Director of the Office of International Military Cooperation at the Central Military Commission Maj. Gen. Li Bin.

Earlier, upon arrival in Beijing, an official reception ceremony was held for Prince Khalid bin Salman, during which the national anthem of Saudi Arabia and China was played and then Prince Khalid bin Salman inspected the guard of honor.