Trump threats to India may prove hoax calls

The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the US threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen, reports Reuters.

President Donald Trump cited India's imports of Russian crude when imposing an additional 25% tariff on imports from India on August 06, which is due to take effect on August 28.

If the new tariff rate does come into place, it will take the rate for some Indian goods to as much as 50%, a level high enough to effectively end US imports from India, which totalled nearly US$87 billion in 2024.

As with everything related to Trump, it pays to be cautious given his track record of backflips and pivots.

It's also not exactly clear what Trump is ultimately seeking, although it does seem that in the short term he wants to increase his leverage with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of their planned meeting in Alaska this week, and he's using India to achieve this.

Whether Trump follows through on his additional tariffs on India remains uncertain, although the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine seem remote, which means the best path for India to avoid the tariffs would be to acquiesce and stop buying Russian oil.

But this is an outcome that simply isn't being reflected in current crude oil prices.

Global benchmark Brent futures have weakened since Trump's announcement of higher tariffs on India, dropping as low as US$65.81 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday, the lowest level in two months.

This is a price that entirely discounts any threat to global supplies, and assumes that India will either continue buying Russian crude at current volumes, or be able to easily source suitable replacements without tightening the global market.

The track record of the crude oil market is somewhat remarkable in that it quickly adapts to new geopolitical realities and any price spikes tend to be short-lived.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent crude prices hurtling toward US$150 a barrel as European and other Western countries pulled back from buying Russian crude.

But what Trump is proposing now is somewhat different. It appears he wants to cut Russian barrels out of the market in order to put financial pressure on Moscow to cut a deal over Ukraine.

There are effectively only two major buyers for Russian crude, India and China.

China, the world's biggest crude importer, has more leverage with Trump given US and Western reliance on its refined critical and other minerals, and therefore is less able to be coerced into ending its imports of Russian oil.

India is in a less strong position, especially private refiners like Reliance Industries which will want to keep business relationships and access to Western economies.

India imported about 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first half of the year, or about 37% of its total, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

About 90% of its Russian imports came from Russia's European ports and was mainly Urals grade.

This is a medium sour crude and it would raise challenges for Indian refiners if they sought to replace all their Urals imports with similar grades from other suppliers.

There are some Middle Eastern grades of similar quality, such as Saudi Arabia's Arab Light and Iraq's Basrah Light, but it would likely boost prices if India were to seek more of these crudes.

If Chinese refiners were able to take the bulk of Russian crude given up by India, it may allow for a re-shuffling of flows, but that would not appear to be what Trump wants.

Trump and his advisers may believe there is enough spare crude production capacity in the United States and elsewhere to handle the loss of up to 2 million bpd of Russian supplies.

But testing that theory may well lead to higher prices, especially for certain types of medium crudes which would be in short supply.

It's simplistic to say that higher US output can supply India's refiners, as this would mean those refiners would have to be willing to accept a different mix of refined products, including producing less diesel, as US light crudes tend to make more products such as gasoline.

For now the crude oil market is assuming that the Trump/ India/ Russia situation will end as another TACO, the acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out.

But the reality is likely to be slightly messier, as some Indian refiners pull back from importing from Russia, some Chinese refiners may buy more and once again the oil market goes on a geopolitical merry-go-round.

  

Significance of Iranian President's visit to Pakistan

The world knows that Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan’s independence in 1947 and open its embassy in Karachi, which was then the capital of Pakistan. Likewise, Pakistanis were the first to officially recognize the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979.

The people of both countries share cultural, linguistic, historical, and religious ties, and have supported each other in both bitter and sweet moments throughout history. The cultural commonalities between the two nations are such that citizens of either country do not feel estranged or alien when traveling to the neighboring country.

In Tehran, prominent places such as Mohammad Ali Jinnah Highway and Pakistan Street exist. Likewise, in major Pakistani cities, including Karachi, street signs bearing names like Iran Avenue and streets named after Iranian poets like Ferdowsi, Saadi, Hafez, Khayyam, and others can be found.

Islamabad, the capital of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, hosted Dr. Pezeshkian, President of Iran, and his accompanying delegation from August 02 to 03, 2025. This was, in fact, Pezeshkian’s first official visit to Pakistan since winning Iran’s 14th presidential election.

It is worth noting that in April 2024, the martyred Ayatollah Raisi also made a three-day visit to Pakistan, including the cities of Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad, where he was warmly welcomed by the people and officials of that country. Following the helicopter crash and martyrdom of Ayatollah Raisi and his companions, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, along with other officials, traveled to Tehran to pay their respects and attend the memorial ceremony.

In May of this year, Shehbaz Sharif once again visited Tehran to express his gratitude for Iran’s stance regarding the India-Pakistan war. Therefore, Dr. Pezeshkian’s recent visit was in response to Shehbaz Sharif’s invitation and, essentially, a reciprocation of his visit to Tehran.

Dr. Pezeshkian began his official visit in Lahore, the capital of Punjab province, by paying respects at the mausoleum of Allama Iqbal, the Pakistani philosopher and poet. It is said that over 8,000 verses of Iqbal’s poetry comprising 70% of his total works are written in Persian.

During the continuation of the visit in Islamabad, the Iranian delegation met with the Prime Minister, President, Foreign Minister, Army Chief, Speakers of the Senate and National Assembly, and Pakistani business community, seeking to implement the "Neighbor First" policy in practice. 

The current volume of annual trade between the two countries is about US$3 billion, yet many economic and commercial potentials remain untapped. During this recent visit, 12 cooperation agreements were signed in areas such as transportation, science and technology, tourism, and free trade, which, if implemented, could significantly boost bilateral relations.

One indicator of strong political relations is the frequent travel of officials between countries. In less than two years, top officials from Iran and Pakistan have visited each other’s countries four times, not including the meetings held on the sidelines of key regional and international summits. These frequent meetings highlight the close bond and significance of the relationship particularly now, when there is a growing need to expand cooperation.

Over the past few decades, Iran-Pakistan relations have enjoyed relative stability, and mutual visits and exchanges between officials have been a regular occurrence. What gives special importance to the recent presidential visit to Pakistan is the unique political situation and the developments that have taken place in recent months in South and West Asia and even globally.

The four-day war between India and Pakistan in May 2025, as two nuclear powers, created a highly sensitive situation in the region. Although brief, the consequences of this conflict continue to affect both countries and the broader region and world.

Additionally, the ongoing war and genocide in Gaza have significantly influenced global politics. In this context, the stances of Islamic countries such as Iran and Pakistan are of great importance. Tehran and Islamabad have consistently adopted shared, firm positions and have emphasized full support for the Palestinian cause. The 12-day imposed war by Israel on Iran drastically altered the geopolitics of the region and the Islamic world.

Pakistan’s positions as one of the largest and most influential Muslim nations and a nuclear power have been crucial, and the Iranian public and officials have always appreciated Pakistan’s brave and brotherly stance.

Islamabad's officials have expressed their appreciation, in various ways, for Iran’s goodwill and initiative in offering to mediate between the two countries, and for the highly important visit of Iran’s Foreign Minister Dr. Araghchi to Pakistan and India to reduce the tensions.

A key factor linking Iran and Pakistan’s foreign policies is the sensitivity of public opinion in both nations toward the Palestinian issue and their mutual opposition to Zionist occupation and crimes in Gaza. This shared stance is rooted in the principled policies laid down by the founding leaders of both nations, Imam Khomeini and Muhammad Ali Jinnah and continues today. Currently, there is deep concern over the joint illegal actions of the Zionist regime and the United States against Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the potential for similar scenarios to be repeated elsewhere.

The condemnation of the Zionist regime’s aggressive attack on Iran by Pakistan’s permanent representative at the UN Security Council, as a non-permanent member and rotating president, was well-received. Pakistan’s support for dialogue and negotiation and its affirmation of Iran’s right to nuclear knowledge were also reflected in the joint press conference held by Shehbaz Sharif and Dr. Pezeshkian.

Iranian and Pakistani officials have come to a shared understanding that the 900 plus km border between the two nations should transition from being a security border to an economic one. The two sides have created joint mechanisms to improve coordination in the fight against terrorism. There exists an ocean of untapped potential in both countries, which requires serious political will to activate. The travel of hundreds of thousands of Pakistani pilgrims as part of religious tourism is one such opportunity.

Currently, two land borders at Rimdan and Mirjaveh are operational, facilitating travel for tourists and traders. Strengthening infrastructure is essential for increasing travel between the two peoples. People-to-people ties and citizen interactions can play a critical role in raising awareness of each other’s capabilities. 

Meeting mutual needs given that the two economies complement each other should be a top priority for private sectors and businesspeople in both nations. Much of what Iran imports from other countries is easily accessible in Pakistan, and Pakistan exports goods that Iranians also import from various sources.

Pakistan can meet many of its needs through Iranian producers and benefit from the proximity and low logistics costs. There is an urgent need to upgrade the joint Iran-Pakistan Chamber of Commerce to play a more significant role.

An Iranian proverb says, “A good neighbor is better than a distant relative.” Pakistan is both a good neighbor and a good relative and we Iranians are grateful for this valued neighbor.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

 

Upcoming visit of Iranian President to Pakistan

Iran-Pakistan relationship are unique — one defined not simply by geography, but by centuries of shared civilizational experience, religious affinity, cultural kinship and converging strategic interests. The two sovereign nations can gain from an enduring partnership — and even more to contribute to the future of the region.

The upcoming state visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Pakistan reflects this growing momentum. It builds upon a history of high-level engagement that includes the late President Ebrahim Raisi’s landmark visit to Islamabad and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s reciprocal visit to Tehran.

These exchanges, along with sustained diplomatic consultation between senior officials of both the countries, represent a deepening alignment that extends well beyond ceremonial diplomacy. These reflect a conscious, strategic choice to elevate the bilateral relationship into one of regional consequence.

Iran and Pakistan share a 900-kilometre border that is more than a line dividing two states; it is a bridge that has connected peoples and civilizations for centuries. Through this frontier flowed not only trade, but ideas, languages, poetry and faiths that continue to animate our societies today.

From the celebration of Nowruz to shared Sufi traditions, the depth of cultural and spiritual interconnection has forged an enduring sense of familiarity and trust that forms the bedrock of political cooperation.

As two proud Muslim nations, Iran and Pakistan are anchored in the principles of Islam -- justice, compassion and solidarity. These values are not only sources of internal cohesion; they serve as guiding lights for international engagement. The two countries stand together in support of causes such as the Palestinian struggle, to speak out against injustice and to promote peace through cooperation and mutual respect.

Their economic complementarities offer enormous potential. Pakistan’s agricultural dynamism and Iran’s abundant energy resources, coupled with shared interest in connectivity, provide a natural basis for integration.

In addition to sectoral synergies, both nations share a long-term interest in fostering an open, equitable, and interdependent regional economy. By aligning visions, Iran and Pakistan can build a sustainable economic partnership grounded in mutual resilience, technological progress and inclusive growth. Such cooperation can play a transformative role in lifting communities, creating employment and promoting a model of development that benefits the wider region.

At a time transnational threats continue to endanger their security, Iran and Pakistan remain vigilant against terrorist networks operating in border regions. Coordination in counterterrorism is not an option; it is an imperative.

Beyond local threats, both countries face broader strategic concerns arising from aggressive postures in the region. The Israeli regime’s ongoing genocide in Gaza, its occupation of Syria and Lebanon, and its recent unprovoked attacks on Iranian territory underscore the urgency of a collective response to belligerent forces that thrive on instability and domination. Responsible states cannot afford silence. It is time to strengthen coordination, deepen security cooperation and articulate a clear and united stance in international forums.

Iran deeply appreciates the principled position taken by the Government of Pakistan in unequivocally condemning the June 2025 Israeli and American military aggression against Iranian territory. At a time Western powers chose to stand on the wrong side of history, Pakistan stood firmly for international law, regional stability and solidarity with its neighbour.

Equally moving was the heartfelt support expressed by the people of Pakistan, whose spontaneous outpourings of compassion resonated deeply across Iranian society. The Iranian people watched with gratitude as their Pakistani brothers and sisters raised their voices in their support. This display of empathy and unity will never be forgotten. It reaffirmed the profound depth of our bond and the strength of the values we share.

Iran and Pakistan also enjoy a record of close cooperation across multilateral institutions. At the UN, the two have consistently worked together to defend the rights of the Palestinian people and advance sustainable development goals.

Within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, we advocate for addressing the pressing challenges of the Muslim Ummah. As active members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Economic Cooperation Organization, and the D-8, pursue shared objectives in connectivity, economic integration, and regional peace.

Coordinated diplomacy amplifies their voice on the global stage and helps steer international discourse towards justice, equity, and multilateralism. This collaboration is not limited to crisis management. It also reflects a broader strategic convergence.

Both Iran and Pakistan uphold principles of sovereignty, non-interference, and the peaceful resolution of disputes. Both are committed to a regional order in which Muslim nations shape their own destinies and cooperate toward collective prosperity.

Their partnership holds promise in trilateral and broader regional settings as well. With Afghanistan as their mutual neighbour, the two share an interest in stabilizing the country and ensuring that peace and development replace conflict and extremism. By integrating their economic strategies and leveraging geostrategic positions, Iran and Pakistan can help transform the region into a hub of cooperation rather than competition.

The creation of functional trade and transit corridors, grounded in mutual benefit, brings tangible dividends to our peoples and reaffirms our leadership in crafting a forward-looking regional architecture.

The path ahead calls for unity, clarity of purpose, and a willingness to transform shared aspirations into lasting institutions and practical achievements. Enhancing diplomatic dialogue, expanding economic ties, fostering educational and cultural exchanges and institutionalizing cooperation on security and development will give real depth and resilience to our relationship.

President Pezeshkian’s visit provides an opportunity not only to reaffirm commitments but to reimagine possibilities. In doing so, the two may draw inspiration from Allama Iqbal — Pakistan’s national poet and a profound admirer of Persian thought — who reminded us that the soul of nations is shaped not in fleeting political cycles, but in enduring moral and spiritual visions. His words resonate still: “Nations are born in the hearts of poets; they prosper and die in the hands of politicians.”

Iran-Pakistan friendship is not merely a relic of the past; it is a strategic investment in the future. In unity, they find strength. In cooperation, they find purpose. And in mutual respect, they find the foundation for lasting peace and shared progress.

 

China embarks on world largest hydropower dam

Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced construction had begun on the world's largest hydropower dam, on the eastern rim of the Tibetan Plateau, at an estimated cost of US$170 billion, the official Xinhua news agency said.

Commencement of the hydropower project, China's most ambitious since the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze, was seized by Chinese markets as proof of economic stimulus, sending stock prices and bond yields higher on Monday.

Made up of five cascade hydropower stations with the capacity to produce 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, equal to the amount of electricity consumed by Britain last year, the dam will be located in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo. A section of the river tumbles 2,000 metres (6,561 feet) in a span of 50km (31 miles), offering huge hydropower potential.

India and Bangladesh have already raised concerns about its possible impact on the millions of people downstream, while NGOs warned of the risk to one of the richest and most diverse environments on the plateau.

Beijing has said the dam will help meet power demand in Tibet and the rest of China without having a major effect on downstream water supplies or the environment. Operations are expected sometime in the 2030s.

China's CSI Construction & Engineering Index jumped as much as 4% to a seven-month high. Power Construction Corporation of China  and Arcplus Group PLC  surged by their 10% daily limit.

"From an investment perspective, mature hydropower projects offer bond-like dividends," Wang Zhuo, partner of Shanghai Zhuozhu Investment Management said, while cautioning that speculative buying into related stocks would inflate valuations.

The project will drive demand for construction and building materials such as cement and civil explosives, Huatai Securities said in a note to clients.

Shares of Beijing-listed Hunan Wuxin Tunnel Intelligent Equipment Co, which sells tunnel construction equipment, surged 30%. So did shares of Geokang Technologies Co, which makes intelligent monitoring terminals.

Cement maker Xizang Tianlu Co and Tibet GaoZheng Explosive Co, producer of civil explosive materials, both jumped their maximum 10%.

The Chinese premier described the dam as a "project of the century" and said special emphasis "must be placed on ecological conservation to prevent environmental damage," Xinhua said on Saturday.

Government bond yields rose across the board on Monday, with the most-traded 30-year treasury futures falling to five-week lows, as investors interpreted the news as part of China's economic stimulus.

The project, overseen by the newly formed state-owned China Yajiang Group, marks a major boost in public investment to help bolster economic growth as current drivers show signs of faltering.

"Assuming 10 years of construction, the investment/ GDP boost could reach 120 billion yuan (US$16.7 billion) for a single year," said Citi in a note. "The actual economic benefits could go beyond that."

The Three Gorges, which took almost two decades to complete, generated nearly a million jobs, state media reported, though it displaced at least a similar number of people.

Authorities have not indicated how many people would be displaced by the Yarlung Zangbo project.

The Yarlung Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra River as it leaves Tibet and flows south into India and finally into Bangladesh. NGOs say the dam will irreversibly harm the Tibetan Plateau and hit millions of people downstream.

The chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, Pema Khandu, said earlier this year that such a colossal dam barely 50km from the border could dry out 80% of the river passing through the Indian state while potentially inundating downstream areas in Arunachal and neighbouring Assam state.

 

BRICS leaders gather at Rio de Janeiro

According to Reuters, leaders of the growing BRICS group of developing nations were set to gather in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, calling for reform of traditional Western institutions while presenting the bloc as a defender of multilateralism in an increasingly fractured world.

With forums such as the G7 and G20 groups of major economies hamstrung by divisions and the disruptive "America First" approach of US President Donald Trump, expansion of the BRICS has opened new space for diplomatic coordination.

"In the face of the resurgence of protectionism, it is up to emerging nations to defend the multilateral trade regime and reform the international financial architecture," Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told a BRICS business forum on Saturday.

BRICS nations now represent over half the world's population and 40% of its economic output.

The BRICS group gathered leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China at its first summit in 2009. The bloc later added South Africa and last year included Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as full members. This is the first leaders' summit to include Indonesia.

"The vacuum left by others ends up being filled almost instantly by the BRICS," said a Brazilian diplomat who asked not to be named. Although the G7 still concentrates vast power, the source added, "It doesn't have the predominance it once did."

However, there are questions about the shared goals of an increasingly heterogenous BRICS group, which has grown to include regional rivals along with major emerging economies.

Stealing some thunder from this year's summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping chose to send his prime minister in his place. Russian President Vladimir Putin is attending online due to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.

Still, many heads of state will gather for discussions at Rio's Museum of Modern Art on Sunday and Monday, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Over 30 nations have expressed interest in participating in the BRICS, either as full members or partners.

Brazil, which also hosts the United Nations climate summit in November, has seized on both gatherings to highlight how seriously developing nations are tackling climate change, while Trump has slammed the brakes on US climate initiatives.

Both China and the UAE signaled in meetings with Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad in Rio that they plan to invest in a proposed Tropical Forests Forever Facility.

Expansion of the BRICS has added diplomatic weight to the gathering, which aspires to speak for developing nations across the Global South, strengthening calls for reforming global institutions such as the United Nations Security Council and the International Monetary Fund.

The growth of the bloc has also increased the challenges to reaching consensus on contentious geopolitical issues.

Ahead of the summit, negotiators struggled to find shared language for a joint statement about the bombardment of Gaza, the Israel-Iran conflict and a proposed reform of the Security Council.

To overcome differences among African nations regarding the continent's proposed representative to a reformed Security Council, the group agreed to endorse seats for Brazil and India while leaving open which country should represent Africa's interests, a person familiar with the talks told Reuters.

The BRICS will also continue their thinly veiled criticism of Trump's US tariff policy. At an April ministerial meeting, the bloc expressed concern about "unjustified unilateral protectionist measures, including the indiscriminate increase of reciprocal tariffs."

 

Understanding US and Russian policies towards Taliban

Russia has become the first country to recognize Taliban government in Afghanistan. It is on record that the United States and Russia have had different policies toward Taliban due to their distinct strategic interests, historical experiences, and regional alliances. Here’s a breakdown of some of the key reasons behind this divergence:

The United States has fought Taliban directly for over two decades after 9/11, viewing them as terrorist allies of al-Qaeda. This includes the US led NATO invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 to topple the Taliban regime.

Interestingly, Russia has not fought Taliban directly but has a history of conflicts in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion (1979–1989), where the US and others supported the Mujahideen, some of these are now termed Taliban).

Russia sees Taliban as part of the post-Soviet regional security dynamic, not necessarily as a direct enemy.

Most interesting is the US perspective because it considers Taliban a threats to US homeland and allies. The history shows that Afghans/ Taliban never attacked the United States. It is also said that Osama bin Laden was a Saudi, which supported Mujahideen in averting the USSR attack on Afghanistan to get access to the warm waters.

The US, which never wanted to leave Afghanistan believes that Taliban rule could once again turn the country into a safe haven for global jihadis like al-Qaeda or ISIS-K. Some analysts openly say that be it al-Qaeda or ISIS-K, these are ‘B’ teams of CIA.

The prime focus of Russia is more on Central Asian stability and drug trafficking from Afghanistan. Russia fears spillover of extremism into its southern borders but engages pragmatically with Taliban to keep its influence in the region.

Both the US and Russia are keen in engaging with Taliban. The US was initially hostile, but later engaged diplomatically, courtesy Doha talks, culminating in the 2020 US-Taliban agreement. After the 2021 withdrawal, the US maintains non-recognition and economic sanctions, demanding women rights, inclusivity, and action against terrorism.

As against, Russia has hosted Taliban delegations for talks in Moscow and calls for inclusive governance but does not condition engagement as strictly as the US. Russia did not officially recognize the Taliban either, but it was more flexible in diplomacy.

Strategic Interests

The US claims, to that many do not agree, that the super power is busy in global fight against terrorism and avoids getting entangled again in the Afghan conflict. Since withdrawal of troops the US has kept Taliban under pressure through sanctions and diplomatic isolation, including freezing foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan.

The prime Russian interest is, ending US hegemony in the region. It also wants to protect its interests in Central Asia (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan). On top of all Russia seems to be keen in developing regional alliances that include Taliban as a reality, not a pariah.

Over the decades, the United States has maintained its hegemony through regional alliances, working closely under the NATO umbrella. The US policy towards Taliban is part of a broader Western approach tied to liberal values and counterterrorism.

Realizing its limitations Russia works closely with China, Iran, Central Asian republics. It often coordinates with anti-Western powers and is less constrained by democratic or human rights norms.

To get control over countries two of the world’s largest super powers, the United States as well as Russia have often used arsenal power. As against this China has used diplomacy and economic assistance to establish its influence.

During the election campaign Donald Trump had promised to pull the United States out of wars, but his unconditional support to Israeli genocide in Gaza and direct attacks on Iran prove he is also the tout of military complexes and would never like to end wars where the United States is involved directly or indirectly.

 

Dalian vital engine of innovation and sustainable growth

A group of international journalists kicked off a five-day tour of northeast China’s Liaoning Province on Tuesday, with their journey beginning in the dynamic port city of Dalian—a coastal metropolis that has become a powerful symbol of China’s high-quality development, global engagement, and forward-looking innovation.

Upon arrival, the delegation visited the Dalian International Conference Center, a striking architectural landmark and recurring host of the Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as Summer Davos. Since 2013, Dalian has welcomed this globally significant forum five times, most recently in 2024, and is slated to host it again in next year. 

The event serves as a global platform for innovation, dialogue, and collaboration among emerging economies and forward-thinking enterprises. Dalian’s repeated selection as host reflects its growing influence in shaping global economic conversations and fostering international cooperation.

Strategically located between the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea, Dalian is one of China’s key sub-provincial cities, known for its strategic openness, robust infrastructure, and strong economic foundations. As a hub of advanced manufacturing, international trade, and technological innovation, the city plays a critical role in the revitalization of northeast China. But beyond its economic strength, Dalian impresses visitors with its seamless blend of modern urban design, green spaces, and coastal beauty. The delegation marveled at how the city has preserved its natural charm while building a vibrant, sustainable urban landscape that reflects China's broader goals of ecological civilization.

From its tree-lined boulevards and expansive public parks to its cutting-edge tech zones and innovation clusters, Dalian tells a compelling story of transformation—where heritage and high-tech coexist harmoniously. Its maritime economy, software and service outsourcing industries, and eco-friendly urban planning have all positioned the city as a model for smart, sustainable development in China and beyond.

The media tour is part of a broader initiative organized by the Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation Commission (GNFCC) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The GNFCC extended invitations to the journalists with the goal of deepening international understanding and showcasing the progress of Liaoning in the new era. This effort reflects the vision outlined by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 2013 SCO Bishkek Summit, where he proposed the establishment of institutions dedicated to promoting friendship and mutual understanding among SCO member states and observers.

Following their time in Dalian, the delegation will travel to Shenyang, the provincial capital, where they are scheduled to attend two major SCO forums. These events will further highlight Liaoning’s role in regional cooperation, economic integration, and cultural exchange under the SCO framework.

As the world faces complex challenges and seeks new paths toward recovery and cooperation, cities like Dalian are proving that innovation, openness, and sustainable development can go hand-in-hand. For the visiting journalists, Dalian offers not just a window into China’s transformation, but a glimpse into a future shaped by connectivity, shared prosperity, and enduring friendship among nations.

 

SCO Defense Ministers Meet in China

Against the backdrop of intensifying global conflicts, defense ministers from the ten member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) convened this week in China’s eastern city of Qingdao, reaffirming their commitment to dialogue, multilateralism, and regional stability.

Hosted by Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, the annual SCO Defense Ministers’ Meeting on June 26 emphasized strategic coordination in the face of growing international uncertainty—particularly as tensions escalate in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

During a bilateral meeting on June 25, Chinese Defense Minister Dong met with his Iranian counterpart Aziz Nasirzadeh, who is in China to attend the SCO gathering. Dong reaffirmed China’s support for Iran’s legitimate position and criticized unilateralism and hegemonic behavior, calling them major sources of global instability.  

“In a world undergoing profound changes, unilateralism, protectionism, and power politics are eroding the international order,” Dong said. “The defense departments of SCO member states must uphold founding principles of the SCO, deepen practical cooperation, and safeguard a peaceful environment for development.”  

In response, Minister Nasirzadeh thanked China for its understanding and support in the face of the recent aggression.  

“Iran has recently come under attack, and we are grateful for China’s just position. We hope China will continue to play a constructive role in preserving the ceasefire and easing regional tensions,” he said.

In a joint statement released on June 23, the SCO expressed serious concern over the recent escalation in the Middle East, strongly condemning the United States' military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which the organization said violated international law, the UN Charter, and the SCO Charter, particularly the principle of non-use of force in international relations.  

“The attack on Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity has seriously undermined regional and global peace and stability,” the statement read, calling for the crisis to be resolved through political and diplomatic means.  

The meeting also saw defense chiefs from India and Pakistan share the same table for the first time since a military flare-up in Kashmir last month.

Belarus and Iran, the SCO’s newest full members, participated in the event for the first time in this capacity—highlighting the organization’s growing breadth and influence.  

Dong welcomed all attendees with a call for greater defense coordination under the Global Security Initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, which promotes common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security.  

Xiao Bin, Deputy Secretary-General of the SCO Research Center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, described the SCO as a rare example of a multilateral security platform that emphasizes non-alignment, non-confrontation, and consensus-based cooperation.  

“It plays a unique role in stabilizing the regional landscape, curbing destabilizing factors, and promoting peaceful dialogue in times of conflict,” Xiao said.

As the rotating chair, China has overseen a year of active defense diplomacy. According to Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense, recent SCO events have helped build trust and amplify the organization’s collective voice on global security.  

“These meetings provided a vital platform for dialogue and consensus-building among all member states,” Zhang noted.  

The Qingdao meeting, held in a city symbolic for being where China first proposed the “SCO Community of Shared Destiny” in 2018, delivered a timely reminder of the group’s mission, to uphold peace, sovereignty, and shared development in an increasingly fragmented world.

As tensions mount across multiple regions, the SCO has emerged as a platform where strategic communication, mutual respect, and regional cooperation can still flourish.

 

 

China can continue to purchase Iranian oil

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that China can continue to purchase Iranian oil after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, a move that the White House clarified did not indicate a relaxation of US sanctions, reports Reuters.

"China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also," Trump said in a post on Truth Social, just days after he ordered US bombings of three Iranian nuclear sites.

Trump was drawing attention to no attempts by Iran so far to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, as a closure would have been hard for China, the world's top importer of Iranian oil, a senior White House official told Reuters.

"The president continues to call on China and all countries to import our state-of-the-art oil rather than import Iranian oil in violation of US sanctions," the official said.

After the ceasefire announcement, Trump's comments on China were another bearish signal for oil prices, which fell nearly 6%.

Any relaxation of sanctions enforcement on Iran would mark a US policy shift after Trump said in February he was re-imposing maximum pressure on Iran, aiming to drive its oil exports to zero, over its nuclear program and funding of militants across the Middle East.

Trump imposed waves of Iran-related sanctions on several of China's so-called independent "teapot" refineries and port terminal operators for purchases of Iranian oil.

"President Trump's green-light for China to keep buying Iranian oil reflects a return to lax enforcement standards," said Scott Modell, a former CIA officer, now CEO of Rapidan Energy Group.

In addition to not enforcing sanctions, Trump could suspend or waive sanctions imposed by executive order or under authorities a president is granted in laws passed by Congress.

Trump will likely not waive sanctions ahead of coming rounds of US-Iran nuclear talks, Modell said. The measures provide leverage given Tehran's demand that any deal includes lifting them permanently.

Jeremy Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard & Reed law firm, said if Trump chooses to suspend Iran oil-related sanctions, it would require lots of work between agencies.

 

Lifting US sanctions on Iran could crush Chinese teapot oil refineries

The possible lifting of US sanctions on Iran's oil exports could deal a fatal blow to independent Chinese refineries that have thrived by processing Tehran’s discounted crude, while also putting further downward pressure on oil prices, reports Reuters.

President Donald Trump has taken a dual-track strategy with Iran, applying a "maximum pressure" campaign of tightening economic sanctions, while simultaneously engaging in direct high-level talks over Tehran’s nuclear program. Last week, Trump indicated the sides were getting very close to a deal.

Of course, nuclear talks between Iran and Western powers have always been extremely complex – full of stops and starts – and Trump’s recent statements surrounding a potential deal include much hedging.

If there is a breakthrough deal, it would almost certainly include a repeal of many US economic restrictions on Iran’s oil industry, which would have a profound impact on global energy markets.

Strict US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry have been in place since Trump pulled out of an UN-backed nuclear deal in 2018. While sanctions have dented Tehran’s exports – the country’s major source of revenue – they have never succeeded in reducing exports to zero, as Trump vowed seven years ago.

Iranian exports reached 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2018 and hit a low of just 150,000 bpd in May 2020, before steadily recovering to an average of around 1.65 million bpd so far in 2025, according to analytics firm Kpler.

Chinese privately owned refineries, commonly known as teapots, have been the main buyers of Iranian crude in recent years, attracted by the heavy discounts. Concentrated in the eastern Shandong province, these small independent refineries have capacity of around 4 million bpd, or roughly one-fifth of China’s total refining capacity.

Large volumes of sanctioned crude have made their way into China in recent years through a complex web of shell companies and a so-called "dark fleet" of tankers that transfer oil between different vessels to obscure the origin.

The precise total volumes involved in this trade are unclear as official Chinese customs data suggests the country does not import any Iranian oil. However, Kpler, using ship tracking and satellite technology, estimates that China imported 77% of Iran’s 1.6 million bpd of exports last year.

Iranian production could also likely be ramped up quickly.

Its oil sector has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of mounting Western sanctions, with crude oil production averaging 3.3 million bpd in 2024, according to OPEC data. Production could be ramped up by 500,000 bpd within six months of lifting sanctions.

Not only would the rapid return of Iranian crude to global markets likely put further downward pressure on oil prices that have fallen from a high of US$82 a barrel in January to around US$65 today, but it would also deal a heavy blow to China’s teapot refineries.

These independent outfits typically have very slim profit margins because most run at utilization rates of around 50% or less due to overcapacity in the sector and restrictions on exporting fuels overseas.

Plants have faced fierce competition in recent years, and those that have survived have done so largely because they have been able to generate lucrative profits by processing cheap Iranian as well as Venezuelan feedstock.

The removal of US sanctions on Iranian crude could therefore undermine their business models, meaning many plants would likely have to sharply pare back operations or, in some cases, shut down entirely.

A drop in output from Chinese teapots, in turn, could provide a boost to large state-owned Chinese refineries that will pick up the slack in the domestic market.

More broadly, a decline in global refining capacity should boost the sector at a time of increasing uncertainty over demand for fuels such as gasoline and diesel due to the ongoing trade war and energy transition.

The return of Iran into global oil markets would create headaches for many – not least Saudi Arabia, which is in the middle of a price war – but the biggest losers would likely be the independent Chinese refiners. And the biggest beneficiary, outside of Iran itself, would be the refining industry – whether or not that’s what Trump has in mind.

 

 

Chinese economy remains resilient in April

Chinese economy mostly remained resilient in April, despite feeling the effects of the astronomical tariffs in effect before last week, when Washington and Beijing agreed to remove or pause most of the duties imposed as part of their tempestuous trade war, reports South China Morning Post.

With the new agreement providing a 90-day reprieve in the conflict, last month was the only period where the full force of the triple-digit tariffs could be observed in economic data – at least for now,

Last month, China’s industrial output grew by 6.1% from a year earlier, compared to 7.7% growth in March, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, higher than the 5.21% growth estimate from a poll of economists by financial data provider Wind.

At a meeting of the country’s Politburo in late April – a Communist Party conclave which typically sets the tone for the country’s economic work in the second quarter – the high-level political body vowed to “resolutely focus on doing our business, steadfastly expand high-level opening up and focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations” in a statement.

The rhetoric was seen as affirmation of the need to shore up domestic consumption in an environment where the future of global trade is less than certain.

In a research note previewing the data release, investment bank Goldman Sachs said retail growth was driven by strong home appliance and automobile sales, boosted by an ongoing consumer goods trade-in program.

Automobile retail sales volume grew by 14.5%YoY in April, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association.

Official data also showed that during the three-day Ching Ming Festival holiday period, the number of domestic travellers nationwide and domestic tourism revenue were 6.3% and 6.7% higher, respectively, than the same period last year.

China’s overall fixed-asset investment rose by 4% in the first four months of 2025, falling short of Wind’s estimate of 4.26%, following a rise of 4.2% for the period from January to March.

The overall urban unemployment rate for April, meanwhile, stood at 5.1%, compared with 5.2% a month earlier.

 

United States downgraded by Moody’s Ratings

According to Bloomberg, the US was downgraded by Moody’s Ratings on Friday thanks to government debt that’s approaching a mind-numbing US$37 trillion. It was a dramatic move that cast further doubt on the polarized nation’s status as the world’s highest-quality sovereign borrower. Moody’s lowered the US credit score to Aa1 from Aaa, joining Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in grading the world’s biggest economy below the top, triple-A position.

The one-notch cut comes more than a year after Moody’s changed its outlook on the US rating to negative. The federal budget deficit is running near US$2 trillion a year, or more than 6% of gross domestic product, and Congressional Republicans are pushing through budget legislation that could add trillions of dollars more.

“While we recognize the US’ significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics,” Moody’s wrote in a statement. 

Earlier on Friday, new data showed US consumer sentiment has fallen to the second-lowest level on record, and inflation expectations climbed to multi-decade highs.

The preliminary May sentiment index declined to 50.8 from 52.2 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan. That was lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The main reason cited was President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Nearly three-fourths of respondents to the Michigan survey spontaneously mentioned tariffs. The topic crosses partisan lines, including a notable share of Republicans bringing it up. The new, sobering survey data comes as inflation data from the Trump administration’s Department of Labor has been unexpectedly upbeat, coming in softer than estimates three months in a row.

 

Can China and Russia end US hegemony?

Ever since Donald Trump has taken over as President of United States, started trade war with China and European allies take custody of Gaza, China and Russia are not only perturbed, but also considering plan to cause dent to the US hegemony in the Middle East and North Africa, to begin with.

We are of the opinion that China and Russia may be serious in ending the US hegemony, but achieving the target is highly unlikely in the near term.

No one can deny that the United States still Holds a strong Position because of:

Military Presence

The US maintains major military bases and alliances in the region (Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar, and others).

Energy Security Ties

Despite shifting energy priorities, US influence over global oil markets via relationships with Gulf states remains strong.

Diplomatic Leverage

The US plays a key role in peace negotiations, arms deals, and counterterrorism efforts.

Soft Power

US culture, education, and tech continue to have significant appeal in parts of the region.

Growing Role of China and Russia

China

Economic Influence

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has deepened economic ties, particularly through infrastructure investment and oil imports from Gulf states and Iran.

Diplomacy

Recently brokered the Saudi-Iran détente (2023), signaling growing diplomatic credibility.

Non-Interference Model

Appeals to regimes wary of Western pressure on human rights or democratization.

Russia

Military Intervention

Russia has demonstrated staying power in Syria and maintains naval bases in the eastern Mediterranean.

Arms Sales and Security Cooperation

Offers military support without political conditions.

Energy Deals

Competes with and collaborates on energy projects, particularly in gas.

Challenges to Ending US Hegemony

Use of US dollar in international trade

The single largest point that gives the United States unequivocal strength is use of Greenback in international trade and its absolute control over payment and settlement system.

Lack of Unified Strategy

China and Russia do not have a cohesive alliance or unified vision for the region.

Regional Dependence on US

Many MENA states still rely on US military support and arms.

Distrust Toward Russia and China

Some countries remain skeptical of long-term Chinese or Russian motives.

Way Forward

Though, China and Russia are eroding US dominance through economic, diplomatic, and military inroads, but the US retains deep-rooted strategic advantages. A complete end to US hegemony requires a far greater realignment of regional security and political interests.

Unless China and Russia are able to come up with an alternative currency and payment/ settlement system, they just can not cause dent to the US hegemony in any significant manner.

Xi-Putin pledge to stand together against US

Chinese President Xi Jinping told Russia's Vladimir Putin on Thursday their two countries should be "friends of steel", as they pledged to raise cooperation to a new level and "decisively" counter the influence of the United States.

At talks in the Kremlin, the two leaders cast themselves as defenders of a new world order no longer dominated by the US.

In a lengthy joint statement, they said they would deepen relations in all areas, including military ties, and "strengthen coordination in order to decisively counter Washington's course of 'dual containment' of Russia and China.

The two countries said the Ukraine conflict could only be settled by removing its "root causes" - a phrase that Russia has frequently used when arguing that it was forced to go to war to prevent the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. Ukraine and its Western allies say that was a false pretext for what they call an imperial-style invasion.

Xi is the most powerful of more than two dozen foreign leaders who are visiting Moscow this week to mark Thursday's 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two - a celebration of huge significance for Putin.

Xi's participation - and the joint statement aligning China with Russia's view of the conflict - provide Putin with an important boost as Russia comes under pressure from the United States to end the war.

Russia says it wants to repair relations with Washington, which sank to post-Cold War lows because of the conflict in Ukraine, and that it sees the potential for lucrative business deals. But talks have failed to produce a ceasefire and President Donald Trump has threatened to walk away, unless there is clear progress.

Xi, whose country is currently engaged in a tariff war launched by Trump, said China and Russia should solidify the foundations of their cooperation and "eliminate external interference".

The two countries should "be true friends of steel that have been through a hundred trials by fire", he told Putin.

In another implied reference to the US, Xi said Russia and China would work together to counter "unilateralism and bullying".

Xi and Putin have met dozens of times and signed a "no limits" strategic partnership in February 2022, less than three weeks before Putin sent his army into Ukraine. China is Russia's biggest trading partner and has thrown Moscow an economic lifeline that has helped it navigate Western sanctions.

 

Asia takes step to move away from US dollar?

Asia’s largest economies made a decision that could signal a shift away from the US dollar on Sunday, as they approved a new rapid financing mechanism that will for the first time use regional currencies including the Chinese yuan.

The new scheme has been rapidly approved as countries across East and Southeast Asia look to shield themselves from the financial volatility unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s global tariff war, which has triggered turbulence in the US Treasuries market and an Asian currency rally in recent days.

It may also herald a deeper, longer-term shift towards a regional monetary mechanism that is less reliant on the dollar – and gives China a bigger role.

In this explainer, the South China Morning Post breaks down the details of the new financing mechanism, and what it means for the future of Asia and the dollar-based global financial system.

What is behind this decision?

The new rapid financing mechanism is part of a broader scheme known as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) – a currency swap arrangement among the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), China, Japan and South Korean.

The CMIM has its origins in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis of the 1990s. It is designed to prevent a repeat of that crisis by providing emergency help to countries facing balance-of-payments issues and short-term liquidity difficulties.

The 13 member countries – collectively known as Asean+3 – first began setting up a network of bilateral currency swap arrangements in 2000, then the scheme expanded and evolved into the CMIM a decade later.

The lending capacity of the CMIM has since risen the US$240 billion, with Japan and China each contributing US$76.8 billion, South Korea US$38.4 billion and the 10 Asean countries a combined US$48 billion, according to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office.

To date, none of the member countries have ever requested CMIM funding.

What was decided on Sunday?

During a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Asean+3 nations in Milan, Italy, on Sunday, the attendees approved a new tool for providing swift financial help to economies facing urgent balance-of-payments issues called the CMIM Rapid Financing Facility.

Unlike previous mechanisms, which relied on the US dollar, the new facility will use the Chinese yuan and other regional currencies.

The yuan had been approved for use as a transaction currency in the CMIM pool just weeks earlier, during a meeting of the Asean+3 deputy finance ministers and central bank governors in April.

A joint statement released at the Milan meeting noted that the new facility was designed to “enhance regional resilience by offering members timely access to emergency financing during urgent balance of payments needs, in response to sudden exogenous shocks such as pandemics and natural disasters”.

In a press release published on Monday, China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng hailed the move as “a breakthrough in diversifying the international monetary system in the region” amid a period of global uncertainty.

In Milan, the financial officials also agreed to explore further improvements to the CMIM in line with the International Monetary Fund framework – a move seen as a step towards institutionalizing the initiative and making it more effective.

What it means for the US dollar?

“Yuan’s inclusion in the CMIM system reflects growing acceptance of the currency on the global stage and marks a step forward in its internationalization,” said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

The move comes as Beijing accelerates its efforts to expand the yuan’s global influence by encouraging the use of the Chinese currency in trade settlement, commodity pricing and foreign exchange reserves.

Chinese authorities have also tried to boost cross-border use of its digital yuan through Project mBridge, a scheme launched in collaboration with the central banks of Hong Kong, Thailand, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Ding, however, noted that the significance of the yuan’s inclusion in the CMIM was mainly symbolic, given that the mechanism has never before been activated and the member countries already had sufficient foreign exchange reserves.

“At this stage, the inclusion of the yuan is more of a structural move, and we will only see the actual impact when the CMIM funding pool is truly activated,” said Ding.

 

Trump’s First 100 Days: Good, Bad, and Ugly

I posted my review of first 100 says of Donald Trump as President of United States. Many may have ignored it knowing that I am not a US citizen. Today, I am sharing excerpts from an article by *Christopher Calton. He has talked about Trump’s early actions on trade, education, immigration, and more, offering a clear-eyed analysis of what Americans can expect in the years ahead.

On the first day of his second term, Trump issued a record-breaking 26 executive orders, and in the weeks that followed, he added more than 100 additional orders alongside other memorandums and proclamations. Some have been entirely positive, while others have been downright eyeroll-inducing, such as renaming the Gulf of Mexico and declaring the day the order was signed a national holiday.

The trillion-dollar military budget seems consistent with Trump’s hawkish foreign policy. Both of Trump’s electoral victories reflected a mandate to finally stop subsidizing foreign conflicts and end America’s forever wars. Trump has, at least, withheld funding for Ukraine, though his approach seems more an effort to cater to Putin than to achieve peace.

Elsewhere, the president has doubled down on America’s support for Israel’s destruction of Gaza, has threatened war with Iran, and has commenced a horrible bombing campaign against Yemen. Just as in his first term, when he neglected to fulfill his promise to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, Trump is again proving to be a war-happy commander in chief.

President Trump’s second term threatens to be even more of a disaster than his first in many arenas, particularly trade and foreign policy. His immigration measures are consistent with his campaign promises, but his lack of concern for due process and rule of law should be concerning to even the most ardent supporters of border security.

Trump’s approach to spending seems an improvement over his first term, but is nonetheless disappointing after what appeared to be a promising start with DOGE.

The silver lining to Trump’s first 100 days is that he is providing a positive counterweight to the left’s growing radicalism in the culture wars, as demonstrated by his education policies. 

*Christopher J. Calton is the Research Fellow in Housing and Homelessness at the Independent Institute.

 

China urges Vietnam to resist bullying

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on Vietnam to oppose "unilateral bullying" to upkeep a global system of free trade — though he stopped short of naming the United States, reports Saudi Gazette.

It comes as Xi is on a so-called "charm offensive" trip across South East Asia, which will also see him visit Malaysia and Cambodia.

Though, the trip was long-planned, it has taken on heightened significance in the wake of a mounting trade war between the US and China. Vietnam was facing US tariffs of up to 46% before the Trump administration issued a 90-day pause last week.

US President Donald Trump called Xi's meeting with Vietnamese leaders a ploy to figure out how to "screw the United States of America".

According to state media outlet Xinhua, Xi told Vietnam's Communist Party Secretary-General To Lam to "jointly oppose unilateral bullying".

"We must strengthen strategic resolve... and uphold the stability of the global free trade system as well as industrial and supply chains," he said.

Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator, said Xi's comments were "a very shrewd tactical move".

"While Trump seems determined to blow up the trade system, Xi is positioning China as the defender of rules-based trade, while painting the US as a reckless rogue nation," he added.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval office on Monday, Trump said he does not "blame" China or Vietnam but alleged that they were focused on how to harm the US.

"That's a lovely meeting. Meeting like, trying to figure out, how do we screw the United States of America?" said Trump.

The world's two largest economies are locked in an escalating trade battle, with the Trump administration putting tariffs of 145% on most Chinese imports earlier this month. Beijing later responded with its own 125% tariffs on American products coming into China.

On Saturday, a US customs notice revealed smartphones, computers and some other electronic devices would be excluded from the 125% tariff on goods entering the country from China. But Trump later chimed in on social media saying there was no exemption for these products and called such reports about this notice false. Instead, he said that "they are just moving to a different tariff 'bucket'".

Xi arrived in Hanoi on Monday, where he was welcomed by well wishes waving Chinese and Vietnamese flags. He then met top Vietnamese officials including the country's Secretary-General and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

Earlier on Tuesday, Xi visited the Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum to take part in a wreath laying ceremony at the resting place of the former Vietnamese founder and Communist leader.

Despite Xi's visit, Vietnam will be careful to "manage the perception that it is colluding with China against the United States, as the US is too important a partner to put aside," said Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute think-tank.

"In many ways, China is an economic competitor as well as an economic partner for South East Asian economies," she added.

Xi arrived in Malaysia on Tuesday. He is expected to meet the country's King, as well as its Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

It comes as Malaysian mobile data service company, U Mobile said it will roll out the country's second 5G network by using infrastructure technology from China's Huawei and ZTE.

Ms Patton expects Xi to continue portraying the US as "a partner which is unreliable and protectionist".

Meanwhile, he is likely to "portray China in stark contrast as a partner that is there", she added.

"Now is really a golden opportunity for China to score that narrative win. I think this is how Xi's visit to Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia will be seen."

 

How high could gold price go?

Gold prices have been on an upward trajectory in 2025, recently reaching a record high of US$3,244.60 per ounce. Now a question is being asked, how high could gold price go. Several key factors are contributing to this surge, these include:

Geopolitical Tensions

The introduction of sweeping tariffs by President Donald Trump, especially those targeting China with rates up to 145%, created upheaval in global financial markets. These policies have led investors to question the reliability of traditional safe assets like US Treasuries and the dollar, prompting a shift towards gold as a more stable alternative.

Economic Uncertainty

Concerns about a potential US recession have intensified, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 45% probability of such an event within the next year. This economic uncertainty enhances gold’s appeal as a hedge against downturns, contributing to its rising demand and price.

Purchases by Central Banks

Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves, partly as a strategy to reduce reliance on the US dollar. This trend of de-dollarization supports higher gold prices, as nations seek to diversify their holdings amid shifting global economic dynamics.

Currency Depreciation

Persistent inflation is eroding the value of paper currencies, prompting investors to turn to gold as a means of preserving purchasing power. As the US dollar weakens, gold's role as a hedge against inflation becomes increasingly significant.

Safe-Haven Demand

The volatility in global markets, exacerbated by trade tensions and economic uncertainties, has led investors to seek refuge in gold. Its status as a safe-haven asset during turbulent times further drives its demand and price upward.

Way Forward

Analysts remain bullish on gold prospects, with forecasts suggesting prices could touch US$3,500 by June end 2025, US$ 4,000 by end December 2025 and US$5,000 by end December 2026. However, a point to remember is that if the trade war intensifies, the price may rise at a faster pace.

A more disturbing fact is that confidence of people around the world in the US administration – as a trustworthy friend and US$ as a dependable currency is eroding. The talk about an alternate currency to replace US dollar is getting louder.