Asia takes step to move away from US dollar?

Asia’s largest economies made a decision that could signal a shift away from the US dollar on Sunday, as they approved a new rapid financing mechanism that will for the first time use regional currencies including the Chinese yuan.

The new scheme has been rapidly approved as countries across East and Southeast Asia look to shield themselves from the financial volatility unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s global tariff war, which has triggered turbulence in the US Treasuries market and an Asian currency rally in recent days.

It may also herald a deeper, longer-term shift towards a regional monetary mechanism that is less reliant on the dollar – and gives China a bigger role.

In this explainer, the South China Morning Post breaks down the details of the new financing mechanism, and what it means for the future of Asia and the dollar-based global financial system.

What is behind this decision?

The new rapid financing mechanism is part of a broader scheme known as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) – a currency swap arrangement among the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), China, Japan and South Korean.

The CMIM has its origins in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis of the 1990s. It is designed to prevent a repeat of that crisis by providing emergency help to countries facing balance-of-payments issues and short-term liquidity difficulties.

The 13 member countries – collectively known as Asean+3 – first began setting up a network of bilateral currency swap arrangements in 2000, then the scheme expanded and evolved into the CMIM a decade later.

The lending capacity of the CMIM has since risen the US$240 billion, with Japan and China each contributing US$76.8 billion, South Korea US$38.4 billion and the 10 Asean countries a combined US$48 billion, according to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office.

To date, none of the member countries have ever requested CMIM funding.

What was decided on Sunday?

During a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Asean+3 nations in Milan, Italy, on Sunday, the attendees approved a new tool for providing swift financial help to economies facing urgent balance-of-payments issues called the CMIM Rapid Financing Facility.

Unlike previous mechanisms, which relied on the US dollar, the new facility will use the Chinese yuan and other regional currencies.

The yuan had been approved for use as a transaction currency in the CMIM pool just weeks earlier, during a meeting of the Asean+3 deputy finance ministers and central bank governors in April.

A joint statement released at the Milan meeting noted that the new facility was designed to “enhance regional resilience by offering members timely access to emergency financing during urgent balance of payments needs, in response to sudden exogenous shocks such as pandemics and natural disasters”.

In a press release published on Monday, China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng hailed the move as “a breakthrough in diversifying the international monetary system in the region” amid a period of global uncertainty.

In Milan, the financial officials also agreed to explore further improvements to the CMIM in line with the International Monetary Fund framework – a move seen as a step towards institutionalizing the initiative and making it more effective.

What it means for the US dollar?

“Yuan’s inclusion in the CMIM system reflects growing acceptance of the currency on the global stage and marks a step forward in its internationalization,” said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

The move comes as Beijing accelerates its efforts to expand the yuan’s global influence by encouraging the use of the Chinese currency in trade settlement, commodity pricing and foreign exchange reserves.

Chinese authorities have also tried to boost cross-border use of its digital yuan through Project mBridge, a scheme launched in collaboration with the central banks of Hong Kong, Thailand, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Ding, however, noted that the significance of the yuan’s inclusion in the CMIM was mainly symbolic, given that the mechanism has never before been activated and the member countries already had sufficient foreign exchange reserves.

“At this stage, the inclusion of the yuan is more of a structural move, and we will only see the actual impact when the CMIM funding pool is truly activated,” said Ding.

 

Declining Chinese investment in US Treasury holdings

China continues to pare its holdings of US Treasuries, leading to market speculations over its motives. The country's stockpile of US government debt hit the lowest level in 14 years at the end of August 2023, with the pace of decline accelerating.

Some analysts said Chinese monetary authorities are leading the move to shore up the yuan, while others blame it for a recent bond rout in the United States.

"Maybe China is behind the rise in US long rates," said Apollo Global Management economist Torsten Slok in a blog posted in early October, when yields on long-term US bonds reached a 16-year high.

China's Treasury holdings started falling steadily after peaking in 2013.

The balance of US Treasurys held by China totaled US$805.4 billion in August, down 40% from a decade earlier, according to data from the US Treasury Department.

China once actively bought the securities with its ample foreign exchange reserves, becoming the second-biggest foreign investor in US Treasuries after Japan. Given the size of its holdings, China's selling could roil US bond prices, pushing up interest rates.

Not everyone, however, agrees with Slok's views, contending that China could just as easily move its holdings to overseas custodians without selling them. Yet many analysts focus on the decline in the country's Treasury balance as a sign of Beijing's strong determination to defend its own currency.

China is facing serious capital flight caused by rising concern about its economic growth and debt burden. In September, capital outflows reached US$75 billion, the biggest such monthly amount since 2016, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs. This exerts strong downward pressure on the yuan, which now trades at around 7.3 against the dollar, the lowest since 2007.

"China's state-run banks likely dumped the dollar around October 01, National Day," said a currency trader at a foreign bank, echoing the views of his peers. It appears that Chinese authorities urged state-run banks to shore up the yuan against dollars and they responded by selling Treasuries to raise needed funds.

Beijing has spent hundreds of billions of dollars out of its foreign exchange reserves on market interventions since 2015, when its devaluation of the yuan led to declines both in stock and currency prices.

Eager to maintain the current level of foreign reserve balances, Beijing may have pushed state-owned lenders to support the yuan on its behalf, according to analysts.

The yuan's daily reference rates announced by the People's Bank of China show the sense of crisis being felt by authorities. While the gap between the reference rate and the market value has widened to a record level, the official midpoint remains pegged at 7.17 to the dollar since mid-September. As China allows the yuan to fluctuate only within 2% on either side of the midpoint, it looks as if the country has reverted to a fixed-rate system.

Taking advantage of the country's lower interest rates spurred by monetary easing, some speculators engage in carry trade by borrowing in yuan and converting the money into currencies with higher interest rates. Goldman Sachs has proposed clients use borrowed yuan to fund bets on higher-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and other South American money.

As speculators seek profits by selling the yuan to buy other currencies, an increase in carry trade could further weaken the Chinese currency. Many analysts expect that if such speculative trading increases, Chinese authorities will have no choice but to step in to bolster the yuan -- possibly by unloading Treasuries.

However, the country's foreign currency reserves -- the source of Treasury purchases -- are unlikely to increase as in the past as export growth slows and the amount of foreign investment declines. Efforts by Western countries to de-risk economic ties with China have only begun to take effect.

If China continues to trim its Treasury holdings, market players may see it as a factor pushing up bond yields and thus as a matter of concern for the US Federal Reserve. The unsteady Chinese economy has added yet another unpredictable variable to global financial markets.