IMF approves US$15.6 billion loan for Ukraine

The International Monetary Fund said on Friday its executive board approved a four-year US$15.6 billion loan program for Ukraine.

The decision clears the way for an immediate disbursement of about US$2.7 billion to Kyiv, and requires Ukraine to carry out ambitious reforms, especially in the energy sector, the Fund said in a statement.

The Extended Fund Facility (EFF) loan is the first major conventional financing program approved by the IMF for a country involved in a large-scale war.

Ukraine's previous, US$5 billion long-term IMF program was canceled in March 2022 when the fund provided US$1.4 billion in emergency financing with few conditions. It provided another US$1.3 billion under a "food shock window" program last October.

Ukraine must meet certain conditions over the next two years, including steps to boost tax revenue, maintain exchange rate stability, preserve central bank independence and strengthen anti-corruption efforts.

Deeper reforms will be required in the second phase of the program to enhance stability and early post-war reconstruction, returning to pre-war fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, boosting competitiveness and addressing energy sector vulnerabilities, the IMF said.

A senior US Treasury official said the program was really solid and included commitments from Ukrainian authorities to achieve 19 structural benchmarks over the next year alone.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the program faced exceptionally high risks, and its success depended on the size, composition and timing of external financing to help close fiscal and external financing gaps and restore Ukraine's debt sustainability.

The decision formalizes an IMF staff-level agreement reached with Ukraine on March 21 that takes into consideration Ukraine's path to accession to the European Union after the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed the new funding.

"It is an important help in our fight against Russian aggression," he said on Twitter. "Together we support the Ukrainian economy. And we are moving forward to victory!"

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who pushed hard for the past year to secure the IMF funding package and paid a surprise visit to Ukraine in February, said the package would help secure the country's economic and financial stability and set the foundation for long-term reconstruction.

"I call on all other official and private creditors to join this initiative to assist Ukraine as it defends itself from Russia’s unprovoked war," she said in a statement. "The United States will continue to stand by Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes."

The IMF said international financial institutions, private-sector firms, and most of Ukraine's official bilateral creditors and donors backed a two-step debt treatment process for Ukraine that includes adequate financing assurances on debt relief and concessional financing during and after the program.

The broad support reassured the IMF, the senior Treasury official said, adding, “That was really helpful for them to see that we really mean to be there for the long haul."

LONGER WAR SCENARIO

IMF official Gavin Gray told reporters the fund's baseline scenario assumed the war would wind down in mid-2024, resulting in the projected financing gap of $115 billion, which would be covered by the multilateral and bilateral donors and creditors.

The fund's "downside scenario" saw the war continuing through the end of 2025, opening a much larger $140 billion financing gap that would require donors to dig deeper, he said.

Gray said the program had been designed to function, even if economic circumstances were "considerably worse" than the baseline. He said the countries providing financing assurances had agreed to work with the IMF to ensure Ukraine was able to service its debt to the IMF if larger sums if needed.

Ukraine will face quarterly reviews beginning as early as June, he said.

 

 

  

Ramadan brings Saudi, Irani envoys closer

Preparations are underway to hold the meeting between Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and his Iranian counterpart Hussein Amir Abdollahian this Ramadan, following the announcement of the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries on March 10.

The signing of the agreement and the phone calls brought in a friendly atmosphere among members of the diplomatic corps of the two countries all over the world. The month of Ramadan witnessed the meeting of the ambassadors of the two countries in Iraq and Norway for Iftar banquets, which confirms the progress in activating the Beijing agreement and the return of relations to normal.

Saudi Ambassador to Iraq Abdulaziz Al-Shammari attended an Iftar banquet hosted by the Iranian Ambassador in Baghdad Muhammad Al-Sadiq on Tuesday. A number of ambassadors accredited to the Iraqi capital also attended the Iftar.

On her part, Saudi Ambassador to Norway Amal Yahya Al-Moallimi hosted the annual Ramadan Iftar banquet in the presence of the Iranian Ambassador Ali Reza Yousefi, along with the heads of Arab and Islamic diplomatic missions accredited to Norway.

The Iranian ambassador said in a statement on his Twitter account that it was a pleasure to participate in the Iftar party of Saudi Ambassador Al-Moallimi at her residence. The recent agreement opened a new chapter in the friendly relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The first meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries is expected to take place in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, which hosted meetings and dialogues between the two sides last year, or the Omani capital Muscat, which also hosted rounds of Saudi-Iranian talks.

There is also a possibility of hosting the historic meeting in the Chinese capital Beijing in view of its key role in turning the page on the differences between Tehran and Riyadh, and its brokering of the agreement to restore diplomatic relations that were severed in 2016.

Saudi Arabia, Iran and China reached an agreement in Beijing, which stipulates the resumption of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran and the reopening of their embassies and consulates within two months, according to a joint statement, issued after the signing of the Beijing deal.

 

US refiner seeks approval to import Venezuelan oil

Valero Energy Corp, the second-largest US oil refiner, is seeking Washington's permission to import Venezuelan crude, hoping for a repeat of the approval granted to Chevron Corp in November 2022 after a four-year ban.

President Joe Biden's administration has eased some US sanctions on the OPEC-member nation in an effort to encourage a political dialogue with the country's opposition. That has led to further pressure from US, European and Asian energy firms, but Washington has resisted any additional major steps for now.

Venezuelan oil resumed flowing to the US in January 2023 under a Treasury Department license granted to Chevron that allowed it to expand output there and export the oil. Refiners including Valero and Phillips 66 have bought cargoes from Chevron, according to US Customs and shipping data.

The Chevron decision came as part of negotiations for humanitarian aid and a presidential election. But efforts to fund the aid by releasing Venezuela's frozen money abroad have stalled and no new talks have been scheduled since that time.

Valero is asking the Treasury for a Chevron-style exemption from sanctions and allow it to directly purchase crude from Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA, said one of the sources, who is based in Washington.

No decision appears imminent, the source said, signaling that the US, for now, does not want to be seen further easing Venezuela sanctions until President Nicolas Maduro makes political concessions to Venezuela's opposition.

Before oil sanctions were imposed on PDVSA in 2019, Valero was among the US top three receivers of the South American country's crude through long-term supply contracts that have not expired.

A Valero spokesperson said the company has not contacted the US Treasury Department for permission to import Venezuelan oil.

"I am told that we have not applied for a license," said spokesperson Lillian Riojas.

PDVSA did not reply to requests for comment. The Treasury Department declined comment.

The U.S. has banned all cash payments to Maduro's administration under its easing of sanctions. Chevron's license - and approvals granted to European firms Eni and Repsol - allow only for oil or debt swaps.

"The United States provided targeted, time-limited sanctions relief to support efforts to restore democracy and alleviate the suffering of the Venezuelan people," said a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, referring to the six-month license granted to Chevron in November.

"We have no new licenses to announce or preview," the spokesperson added.

Chevron's resumption of Venezuelan crude imports has not led to an increase in the country's overall exports this year, according to PDVSA schedules and Refinitiv Eikon data.

The No. 2 US oil company exported some 86,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil in February.

PDVSA's new boss Pedro Tellechea in January suspended most oil supply contracts while reviewing payments for past shipments.

The suspension has recently brought Venezuela's exports almost to a halt, with only four customers - Chevron, Iran, Cuba and Hangzhou Energy - authorized to lift cargoes.

The investigation into payments and disclosure of US$21.2 billion in commercial accounts receivable since 2020 this month prompted the resignation of powerful Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami and the arrest of top PDVSA officials.

 

OPEC Plus likely to stick to its output quota

OPEC Plus is likely to stick to its existing deal to cut oil output at a meeting on Monday, five delegates from the producer group told Reuters, after oil prices recovered following a drop to 15-month lows.

Oil has recovered towards US$80 a barrel for Brent crude after falling to near US$70 on March 20, as fears ease about a global banking crisis and as a halt in exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region curbs supplies.

OPEC Plus, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is due to hold a virtual meeting of its ministerial monitoring panel, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, on Monday.

"It is hard to expect any new development," one of the delegates said of Monday's talks. Another said the Kurdistan curbs and recent price drops were not sufficiently important to affect the overall OPEC Plus policy path for 2023.

Three other OPEC Plus delegates also said any policy changes were unlikely on Monday. After those talks, the next full OPEC Plus meeting is not until June.

Falling oil prices are a problem for most OPEC Plus members because their economies rely heavily on oil revenue.

Even so, OPEC Plus delegates did not raise any suggestion of further action to support the market after the recent price drop and predicted prices would stabilize - which they have since shown signs of doing.

Last November, OPEC Plus reduced its output target by 2 million barrels per day - the largest cut since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The same reduction applies for the whole of 2023.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister has said OPEC Plus will stick to the reduced target until the end of the year.

 

Pakistan: Dilemma of Policy Planners

I am obliged to share with my readers one of my blogs posted as back as on July 09, 2013, its title was “Pakistan: Dilemma of Policy Planners”. It appears that the situation has not improved in nearly a decade and the country continues to suffer from the same contentious issue and apathy of the ruling junta.

With every passing day the conviction seems to be getting stronger that PML-N government headed by Mian Nawaz Sharif hardly has any sense of priority. Many of its announced plans lack coherence and at the best can be termed wishful thinking and worst of all complacency is based on perceptions rather than ground realities.

The country is suffering from severe balance of payment crisis, which demands following multi pronged strategy, negotiations with International Monetary Fund (IMF) being the top priority. It seems the government has hardly done any homework prior to commencing negotiations with the lender of last resort.

Those at the helm of affairs suffer from the illusion that the United States needs Pakistan rather than realizing the harsh reality that India is being promoted as regional super power and also being assigned an important role in Afghanistan after the pullout of US-led Nato forces.

The entire focus of Senator Ishaq Dar seems to be on mobilizing additional taxes and withdrawing subsidies.  PML-N government has been talking about resolution of circular debt issue by borrowing more but completely ignoring the urgent need to overcome the two most contentious issues: rampant pilferage and poor recovery. Injection of billion of rupees may reduce the debt for the time being but it will reappear soon.

Some of the analysts are of the view that Mian Sahib is surrounded by people having vested interest, seeking funds on concessional terms for establishing power generation facilities. These analysts also believe that another ‘power scam’ is in the making.

To substantiate their argument they say that the country has installed capacity of over 28,000MW but actual utilization hovers at less than half. Therefore, the top priority should be running of power powers at optimum capacity utilization rather than adding new capacities.

Some of the cynics say that Since Dar is an accountant by profession his entire focus is on profit and loss statement and balance sheet rather than achieving synergy, economy of scale and off course there is no focus on restoring confidence of investors.

At present Pakistan is suffering from ‘confidence deficit’ which is even worse than budget deficit and trade deficit put together. Local investors are shy because of looming energy crisis and deteriorating law and order situation.

Mobilizing additional tax without putting the economy on track is ‘hoping against hopes’. Since bulk of Pakistan’s revenue collection comes from indirect taxes, people must have ample purchasing power. Bleak outlook for the economy, eroding purchasing power and shrinking job opportunities forces people not to spend. On top of all failure of the government to contain price hike adds to the woes of masses.

There is an old saying ‘action talks louder than words’ but in case of PML-N there is hardly any action but big talk, mostly blame game. Both Pervez Musharraf and Asif Ali Zardari are being held responsible for the poor state of economy.

People listened to this during the election campaign but now want action to remove some of the malice. PML-N had sought 100 days to put the economy on track but its real challenge will be getting the budget endorsed by the IMF to enter into an agreement with the Fund.

Ironically most of the members of National Assembly can’t comprehend impact of budget proposals and impact of these on masses. They consider clapping their sole duty during the speeches of Prime Minister and Finance Minister and saying ‘I second’ their sole responsibility. In return members are given huge development funds which are mostly spent on development of their home town rather than those areas which need the funds most.

Though, it was expected that collectively ANP, MQM, PPP and PTI will emerge as strong combined opposition, not much has been delivered as yet. Many analysts fear that the present opposition will also be the ‘friendly opposition’ only. Since some of the leading parties have formed government at province, these are effectively part of ruling junta and not the opposition.

 

Saudi king invites Iranian President to visit Riyadh

Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz has sent an invitation letter to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi asking him to pay a visit to Riyadh.

“We will also send a similar invitation to the King of Saudi Arabia,” Amir Abdollahian told Al Jazeera.

Tehran and Riyadh reached an agreement in early March to resume diplomatic relations after years of hostility. The talks were brokered by China.

According to the National, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday that his country is ready to support a follow-up process between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations.

Xi’s comments came in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state media CCTV reported.

The crown prince told Xi of the importance of the strategic relations between the two countries and that he appreciated Chinese efforts to develop relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, said the kingdom’s official state media SPA.

“During the call, they reviewed aspects of partnership between the kingdom and China, and joint coordination efforts to enhance cooperation between the two countries in various fields,” SPA said.

The Chinese leader said his country and Saudi Arabia will make more contributions to promote peace, stability and development in the Middle East, state media said.

Tehran and Riyadh reached an agreement in early March to resume diplomatic relations after years of hostility.

 

Pakistan: Ruling junta finds it difficult to contain Imran Khan

The ruling junta in Pakistan seems to be having great trouble asserting itself while remaining within the limits of the law. With the interior minister making it clear that he is willing to go to any lengths — democratic or undemocratic; principled or unprincipled — to counter the PTI, he has just confirmed the worst fears of political analysts and observers who have been warning about Pakistan’s gradual slide towards totalitarianism.

There are no laws and no rules binding the government any longer, to paraphrase Rana Sanaullah. In other words, the PDM government will abuse state power if it needs to in order to neutralize the once again resurgent PTI. “It is us or them,” as the interior minister quite candidly explained in a recent interview during which he made these remarks. This hardly bodes well for national stability.

However, one may interpret Rana Sanaullah’s statement; the PML-N is clearly struggling to counter the PTI politically. It may not acknowledge this, but the large rally in Lahore’s Greater Iqbal Park late Saturday was a clear enough message that using state-sanctioned violence to cut the party down to size does not appear to be working.

The rally was, by most independent accounts, quite well-attended despite the Punjab administration’s efforts. The arrest and disappearance, respectively, of two prominent young faces in the PTI — lawyer Hassaan Niazi and head of the PTI’s social media team, Azhar Mashwani — reports of the detention of lower-level party organizers and their family members; police raids at supporters and sympathizers’ homes; and the willy-nilly blocking of Lahore’s roads with containers and other impediments on the day of the rally all failed to have a chilling effect on the PTI’s supporters. No wonder the interior minister feels frustrated.

Brute force only looks like an answer where politics fails. We saw this when PML-N activists were rounded up in July 2018 to sabotage the PML-N’s electoral chances, and we see it happening to a different set of actors today. In both cases, the forces behind the campaigns of abduction and harassment appear to be the same.

In both cases, the shameful acquiescence of civilian leaders — clearly hoping to derive political benefits from the violent repression of their opponents — allowed rogue actors to expand their influence in the political domain. Rana Sanaullah — himself a victim of the state’s excesses — should have known better.

The enforced disappearance of Mashwani and other workers, regulatory bans on the media’s coverage of the PTI, frivolous arrests of political workers and unleashing the police on the citizenry will not win the PML-N any free and fair elections.

Instead, they will worsen the anarchy that the interior minister himself concedes is prevailing in the country. Perhaps Rana Sanaullah should consider setting better precedents rather than repeating the mistakes of the past.

Courtesy: Dawn

 

 

US currency on the losing spree

The safe-haven US currency remained on the back foot on Wednesday following two days of losses as global financial markets regained a measure of stability on hopes a full-blown banking crisis can be averted.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, was flat in early Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions.

The weakness comes despite a rise in US Treasury yields, which is also the result of weakening demand for the safest assets.

The US currency has lost ground as investors took solace in First Citizens BancShares' agreement to buy all of failed lender Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans, as well as overnight comments by Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman for supervision that SVB's problems were due to terrible risk management, suggesting it could be an isolated case.

Still, traders remain very sensitive to signs of any further cracks in the banking system.

"Issues in US banks will remain the dominant influence on the US currency in the near term," Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a client note, pointing to the importance of weekly data on money market flows due later in the day, which will likely highlight the shift of deposits out of small US banks into large banks.

"Another large increase in inflows to money market funds is therefore a downside risk to the US currency over the next twenty four hours," Capurso said.

 

 

French strikes keep record crude oil on water

French strike action has led to record amounts of crude and condensate sitting idly offshore while the country's crude stocks have plummeted, analysts said on Tuesday.

Around 17 cargoes carrying crude oil, oil products or chemical products have been floating in French waters for the past week, according to Kpler crude analyst Johannes Rauball.

"Seven of these cargoes are carrying around 7 million barrels of crude and condensate, which marks the highest level on record and represents double what we observed at the peak in October of last year," Rauball said.

Industrial action over the past three weeks has impacted every French refinery.

The walkouts differ from the strikes that took place in October, 2022 in that they are coordinated on a national level, also affecting ports and depots, said Koen Wessels, oil products analyst at Energy Aspects.

France's crude oil stocks have fallen to 40.3 million barrels in March, according to consultancy OilX, the lowest since the firm's records began in January, 2010.

France's refinery intake has fallen to its lowest level since October 2022 at 764,000 barrels per day (bpd), data from consultancy OilX show.

The absence of French buying interest has increased supplies elsewhere of crude grades from the North Sea, west Africa and blends from the Caspian pipeline, according to traders.

This has weighed on prices of these crude grades as market players are forced to look elsewhere for buyers.

"It's a pretty bad situation," one trader said.

French crude oil imports from Nigeria have averaged just 30,000 bpd so far this month, compared with an average 200,000 bpd in January and February, according to Kpler.

"A vast amount of Nigeria's April loadings schedule has gone unsold," Rauball said.

Meanwhile, the Ekofisk North Sea crude grade, produced at a field in Norway where TotalEnergies has equity, relies on France for two-thirds of its export stream.

No Ekofisk cargoes have been discharged in France this month, compared with an average of 85,000 bpd in January and February, Kpler data show.

 

 

Pakistan faces furnace oil glut of 632,000 tons

Pakistan faces furnace oil (FO) glut of 632,000 tons following refusal of power plants to stockpile the fuel and poor export feasibility due to its low price in the global market.

The FO stocks have been accumulating since the start of last winter when power demand shrunk. Power plants are still not lifting furnace oil as electricity generation is mainly coming from hydel and nuclear sources, which have cut the demand of fuel oil for power generation.

The attempts by refineries to export furnace oil did not prove lucrative because of low price. Refineries determined it was financially unviable to export FO, as it could eat up their profits if the fuel was exported in the international market at a low price.

According to the sources in the oil sector, total 632,000 FO stocks include 539,080 tons of useable stocks and 93,147 tons of dead stocks.

Pakistan’s oil marketing companies (OMCS) currently hold 203,879 tons of furnace oil stocks, which is 32% of total stocks. The country’s power sector holds 202,280 tons of the fuel oil stocks with it, which is 33%, while local refineries have 220,068 tons, which is 35% of the total stocks.

The breakup of FO with the local refineries shows that PARCO holds 116,004 tons, National Refinery Limited has 32,327 tons and Pakistan Refinery 44,455 tons, Attock Refinery 16,826 tons, and Cnergyico has 10,457 tons of FO stocks.

The present FO stock is huge and is making the operations of local refineries vulnerable because it has been interrupting their operational capacity. They said that if the FO stocks were not lifting, it could further lead towards a shutdown of refineries’ operations.

On exporting the FO, industry people said that PARCO exported 60,000 tons and PRL exported 25,000 tons but the export price was not lucrative. The price in the global market is on the lower side and it can cause financial issues for the refineries if the stocks are exported at this price.

The situation is not attractive for the local refineries as power generation from FO in the month of February slumped by 80% compared to the same month of last year and in the first eight months of the current fiscal. Electricity production from FO also decreased by 50% compared to the same period of the last financial year.

 

China spent US$240 billion bailing out ‘Belt & Road’ countries

According to a Reuters report, China spent US$240 billion bailing out 22 developing countries between 2008 and 2021, with the amount soaring in recent years as more have struggled to repay loans spent building "Belt & Road" infrastructure.

Almost 80% of the rescue lending was made between 2016 and 2021, mainly to middle-income countries including Argentina, Mongolia and Pakistan, according to the report by researchers from the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School, AidData and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

China has lent hundreds of billions of dollars to build infrastructure in developing countries, but lending has tailed off since 2016 as many projects have failed to pay the expected financial dividends.

"Beijing is ultimately trying to rescue its own banks. That's why it has gotten into the risky business of international bailout lending," said Carmen Reinhart, a former World Bank chief economist and one of the study's authors.

Chinese loans to countries in debt distress soared from less than 5% of its overseas lending portfolio in 2010 to 60% in 2022, the study found.

Argentina received the most, with US$111.8 billion, followed Pakistan on US$48.5 billion and Egypt with US$15.6 billion. Nine countries received less than US$1 billion.

People's Bank of China (PBOC) swap lines accounted for US$170 billion of the rescue financing, including in Suriname, Sri Lanka and Egypt.

Bridge loans or balance of payments support by Chinese state-owned banks was US$70 billion. Rollovers of both kinds of loan were US$140 billion.

The study was critical of some central banks potentially using the PBOC swap lines to artificially pump up their foreign exchange reserve figures.

China's rescue lending is "opaque and uncoordinated," said Brad Parks, one of the report's authors, and director of AidData, a research lab at William & Mary College in the United States.

The bailout loans are mainly concentrated in the middle income countries that make up four-fifths of its lending, due to the risk they pose to Chinese banks' balance sheets, whereas low income countries are offered grace periods and maturity extensions, the report said.

China is negotiating debt restructurings with countries including Zambia, Ghana and Sri Lanka and has been criticized for holding up the processes.

In response, it has called on the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to also offer debt relief.

 

 

Humza Yousaf to be Scotland’s next leader

Scottish nationalists picked Humza Yousaf to be the country's next leader on Monday after a bitterly fought contest that exposed deep divisions in his party over policy and a stalled independence campaign.

The 37-year-old practicing Muslim succeeds Nicola Sturgeon as leader of the governing Scottish National Party (SNP) and will take over as head of the semi-autonomous government once he wins an approval vote in the Scottish parliament.

Setting out his goals, Yousaf said he would concentrate on tackling the cost of living crisis, ending the divisions in the party, and making a renewed push for independence.

"The people of Scotland need independence now, more than ever before and we will be the generation that delivers independence," he said in a speech in Edinburgh after the results were announced.

Yousaf's victory was confirmed at the country's national rugby ground after a six-week campaign where the three candidates spent much of the contest criticizing each other's record in a series of personal attacks.

The SNP's unity, which had been one of its strengths, broke down over arguments about how to achieve a second independence referendum and the best way to introduce social reforms such as transgender rights.

Yousaf takes over a party with an overriding objective to end Scotland's three-centuries-long union with England. His predecessor stepped down after the British government repeatedly blocked a route to a new vote on independence.

While about four in 10 Scots support independence, according to a poll this month, the departure of Sturgeon - a charismatic and commanding leader - may initially slow some of the momentum behind a breakup of the United Kingdom.

The often bad-tempered leadership contest has relieved some pressure on British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is dealing with divisions in his own party, waves of industrial action and high levels of inflation.

Yousaf won 52% of the vote of SNP members in the second round of counting, beating Kate Forbes, the finance secretary, who got 48%. Ash Regan, who had quit the government because of her opposition to proposed changes to gender recognition, was eliminated in the first round of counting.

Coree Brown Swan, a lecturer in politics at Queen's University Belfast, said it would be difficult for the party to unite after a divisive leadership contest.

"It's a broad church of a party, which incorporates lots of different ideologies and opinions on things beyond independence," she said. "How do you get everyone moving in the same direction again?"

The frontrunner to replace Sturgeon, Yousaf has stressed continuity with her record, including her push to make it easier for transgender people to gain official recognition to change their gender.

Yousaf has spoken of the need to focus on building the case for independence and achieving consistent support for the movement, adding that he was open minded on which process to pursue once that level of support was achieved.

He pointed to his own background - born in Glasgow, with a father from Pakistan and mother from Kenya - and views as examples of the inclusive, socially liberal and multi-ethnic Scotland that the SNP has promoted.

During the campaign, Yousaf appeared more relaxed than Forbes, a member of the Free Church of Scotland, in balancing his religious views with the party's socially progressive policies.

While Forbes faced criticism when she announced her opposition to same-sex marriage, Yousaf said he supports it. In 2016, Yousaf took his oath of allegiance in the Scottish parliament in Urdu while wearing a kilt, and he has referred to himself as coming from a "bhangra and bagpipes" heritage.

Yousaf also said during the campaign an independent Scotland should look at ditching the British monarchy.

Scotland voted against independence by 55% to 45% in 2014. Britain's vote to leave the EU two years later when most Scots wanted to stay, and Scotland's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, brought new support for independence.

However, an opinion poll this month showed the backing for independence dropped to 39% or 46% when 'don't know' are excluded. That compares with a record 58% in 2020.

Yousaf will be sworn in as Scotland's leader on Wednesday if he wins a vote in the country's parliament the day before.

"The key to getting independence is ensuring we have that consistent majority support," he said. "If we have that, the political obstacles that are put in our way by Westminster will disappear."

 

Largest strike brings Germany to a standstill

Airports, bus and train stations across Germany were at a standstill on Monday morning, causing disruption for millions at the start of the working week during one of the largest walkouts in decades as Europe's biggest economy reels from inflation.

The 24-hour strikes called by the Verdi trade union and railway and transport union EVG were the latest in months of industrial action which has hit major European economies as higher food and energy prices dent living standards.

Two of Germany's largest airports, Munich and Frankfurt, suspended flights, while long-distance rail services were cancelled by rail operator Deutsche Bahn. Striking workers wearing red high-visibility jackets blew horns and whistles through an empty Munich train station.

Employees are pressing for higher wages to blunt the effects of inflation which reached 9.3% in February.

Germany, which was heavily dependent on Russia for gas before the war in Ukraine, has been particularly hard hit by higher prices as it scrambled for new energy sources, with inflation rates exceeding the euro-area average in recent months.

Persistent cost pressures have pushed central banks to a series of interest rate increases, though policymakers have said it is too early to talk of a price-wage spiral.

Verdi union is negotiating on behalf of around 2.5 million employees in the public sector, including in public transport and at airports, while railway and transport union EVG negotiates for around 230,000 employees at railway operator Deutsche Bahn and bus companies.

In the hours running up to the strike, both sides dug in their heels, with union bosses warning that considerable pay hikes were a matter of survival for thousands of workers.

"Millions of passengers who depend on buses and trains are suffering from this excessive, exaggerated strike," a Deutsche Bahn spokesperson said on Monday.

Verdi is demanding a 10.5% wage increase, which would see pay rising by at least 500 euros (US$538) per month, while EVG is asking for a 12% raise or at least 650 euros per month.

Stranded passengers expressed both sympathy and unhappiness about the strike action.

"Yes, it’s justified but I for one never went on strike in my entire life and I have been working for more than 40 years. At the same time, in France they go on strike all the time about something," said passenger Lars Boehm.

EVG chairman Martin Burkert told the Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper on Monday that employers had not yet made a viable offer and warned that further strikes were possible, including over the Easter holiday period.

Deutsche Bahn on Sunday said the strike was completely excessive, groundless and unnecessary, and employers are warning that higher wages for transport workers would result in higher fares and taxes to make up the difference.

Monday's walkouts are part of waves of disruptive labour strikes in wealthy European countries in recent months including in France and Britain, where hundreds of thousands of transport, health and education workers are pressing for higher wages.

Protests against President Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms have sparked the worst street violence in years in France.

Commerzbank Chief Economist Joerg Kraemer said the economic impact of Monday's strike was limited so far but this could change if the strikes persisted over a longer time.

"The strike will strain people's nerves," he said. "But economically, the losses are likely to be limited to the transportation industry because factories will continue to operate and many employees will be working from home."

The head of the Bundesbank Joachim Nagel said last week Germany needed to avoid a price-wage spiral.

"To be clear, preventing inflation to become persistent via the labour market requires that employees accept sensible wage gains and that firms accept sensible profit margins," he said.

"Despite signs of second-round effects, we have not observed a destabilizing price-wage spiral in Germany so far."

Bangladesh inaugurates submarine base

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday inaugurated Bangladesh’s first submarine base near Kutubdia Island, Cox’s Bazar, via a video conference from the capital.

The US$1.21 billion (127 billion taka) base serves as home port for two refurbished Chinese submarines purchased in 2016 to enhance Bangladesh’s naval capacity, after the demarcation of its maritime boundary with.

“We do not want war with anyone. But we must be prepared to give a befitting response if anyone attacks us,” Hasina said in an online message to naval officials gathered at the new base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, in Pekua, about 322 km (200 miles) southeast of Dhaka.

“I believe, by building the base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh Navy’s capacity to protect its maritime boundary is further enhanced,” she said, according to a transcript of her remarks.

The prime minister said that since she assumed power again in 2009, her government had added 31 warships including four frigates, six corvettes, four large patrol craft and five diesel-powered craft.

In November 2016, Bangladesh paid the Chinese government US$205 million (21.5 billion taka) for the submarines, named Nabojatra (New Journey) and Joyjatra (Victory March). Hasina commissioned them on March 12, 2017.

That same day, she laid the foundation stone for the base in Pekua near the Kutubdia channel in the Bay of Bengal. During its construction, the submarines were housed at a naval base in Chittagong.

At the time they were commissioned, Bangladesh’s military communications unit described the submarines as conventional diesel-electric powered craft, 76 meters long and 7.6 meters wide. It said the submarines could reach a maximum speed of 17 nautical miles per hour.

The statement said they were fitted with torpedoes and mines and would be capable of attacking enemy ships and submarines.

“The Chinese will help us build the base and impart training to our personnel to operate the submarines and base. The Chinese submarines will not come here. The base is for our submarines,” Faruk Khan, chairman of the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs, told BenarNews in 2019.

Retired Maj. Gen. Abdur Rashid, a defense analyst, said the base would enhance the capacity of the Bangladesh Navy to protect the vast sea region.

“Given the growing importance of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh must enhance the capacity of its navy to protect its sovereignty and thwart all security challenges and non-traditional security threats,” Rashid told BenarNews.

“Bangladesh procures weapons and military hardware from China as the United States and other countries usually do not sell those to us,” he said.

“The launching of the submarine base will definitely enhance our maritime power,” he added.

 

National Iranian Drilling Company digs 99 wells

National Iranian Drilling Company (NIDC) dug and completed the digging operation of 99 oil and gas wells during the past Iranian calendar year 1401 (ended on March 20), an official with the company said.

According to Masoud Afshar, the deputy head of NIDC for drilling operation, the drilled wells consisted of 15 development, five exploratory, and 79 workover ones.

He said that 77 of the mentioned wells were drilled in the operational zone of the National Iranian South Oil Company (NISOC), eight wells were drilled in the fields under the supervision of the Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC), eight in the fields under the operation of the Petroleum Engineering and Development Company (PEDEC), two wells in the framework of project, and four in the operational zone of the drilling management department of National Iranian Oil company (NIOC).

Over 67,000 meters of drilling were conducted for drilling the mentioned wells, the official announced, and noted, “Comprehensive planning has been done to speed up the drilling operations and it is expected that with the reconstruction and modernization of the drilling machines and equipment, in the current year we will see the use of more drilling machines of the company in the oil-rich areas of the country.”

Stating that 63 of the 73 light, heavy and extra heavy drilling rigs in the company's fleet are in operation or being moved, he put the number of rigs being moved at 20.

The NIDC head has declared the company’s infrastructure improvement in line with the programs of the Oil Ministry as the most important achievement of NIDC in the past year.

Speaking at the company’s annual board meeting, Hamidreza Golpayegani said NIDC’s performance in various operational, technical, engineering, support, services, and headquarters departments has been significant and improved in the previous year compared to the preceding two years.

“According to the statistics of our planning department, the productivity index [of the company] reached 62 percent past year, while this figure was 48 percent in 1400,” Golpayegani said.

Pointing to the company’s strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities, the official stated: “Although the past year's performance in all sectors shows growth and an upward trend, we should not be satisfied and try to get the company to an even better position this year.”

As previously announced by Golpayegani, NIDC had dug and completed digging operation of 75 oil and gas wells in the Iranian calendar year 1400.

According to the official, the drilled wells consisted of six development, five exploratory, and 64 workover ones.

He stated that 56 of the mentioned wells were drilled in the operational zone of the National Iranian South Oil Company, 10 wells were drilled in the fields under the supervision of the Iranian Offshore Oil Company, three in the fields under the operation of Petroleum Engineering and Development Company, one in the field under the supervisor of Iranian Central Oil Fields Company, three wells in the framework of project, and two in the operational zone of the drilling management department of National Iranian Oil company.

 

Indus Water Treaty crucial for peace between Pakistan and India

The Indus Water Treaty is crucial to the peace and stability of the South Asian region. The treaty provides a framework for the sharing of water resources between India and Pakistan, which are two of the most populous and powerful countries in the region. The treaty has been in place since 1960, and despite some disputes and issues, it has managed to prevent any major conflicts between the two countries over water resources.

Under the treaty, both India and Pakistan have certain rights and obligations. India has the right to use the waters of the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi) for its use, while Pakistan has the right to use the waters of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) for its use. Both countries are obligated to inform each other about any new projects being planned or constructed on the shared rivers.

However, the fast-tracking of hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir by India has raised concerns about the implementation of the treaty. Pakistan has accused India of violating the treaty by not providing timely and adequate information about the projects being constructed on the shared rivers. Pakistan believes that the fast-tracking of these projects will reduce the water flow downstream and have an adverse impact on its agriculture and economy.

The issue of water resources is critical for both India and Pakistan. The Indus River is the lifeline of Pakistan’s agriculture and economy, and any reduction in the flow of water downstream can have a significant impact on the country’s food security and economic growth. India, on the other hand, is also heavily dependent on water resources for its economic development, and the fast-tracking of hydropower projects is seen as an important step towards achieving its energy goals.

However, it is important to note that the successful collaboration on the Indus Water Treaty is critical to maintaining peace and stability in the South Asian region. Any disputes or conflicts over water resources can have far-reaching implications for the region’s security and stability. The sharing of water resources is a complex and sensitive issue, and any mismanagement or disputes can lead to tensions between countries.

Therefore, both India and Pakistan need to work together to resolve any disputes or issues that may arise regarding the implementation of the treaty. Both countries need to communicate openly and transparently with each other about any new projects being planned or constructed on the shared rivers. The World Bank, which brokered the treaty, should also play an active role in monitoring the implementation of the treaty and resolving any disputes or issues that may arise.

Moreover, the collaboration between India and Pakistan on the Indus Water Treaty can also serve as a model for other countries in the region. South Asia is home to many transboundary rivers, and the successful collaboration between India and Pakistan on the Indus Water Treaty can provide a template for other countries in the region to manage their shared water resources.

Indus Water Treaty is critical to the peace and stability of the South Asian region. The successful collaboration between India and Pakistan on the implementation of the treaty is crucial to maintaining peace and stability in the region.

Indus Water Treaty is a binding agreement between India and Pakistan that provides a framework for the sharing of water resources between the two countries. The treaty is inviolable, and both countries have certain rights and obligations under the treaty. However, the fast-tracking of hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir has caused issues with the treaty, primarily with regards to the western rivers of the Indus, which are allocated to Pakistan under the treaty. To ensure the inviolability of the treaty, both India and Pakistan need to work together to resolve any disputes or issues that may arise regarding the implementation of the treaty.

Indus water treaty has so far proven to be a formidable arrangement, withstanding wars and political upheaval for decades now. This is an amazing success of global rule based order. And it also speaks volume of commitment shown by India and Pakistan. The joint institutional mechanism developed by IWT has continued to work and collaborate.

Courtesy: South Asia Journal

Biggest financial crises of last four decades

Markets have experienced massive upheaval in the last month, prompted in part by two of the three largest banking failures in US history while Swiss lender Credit Suisse was bought by rival UBS Group AG in a merger engineered by Swiss regulators.

Fears of banking contagion remain, and investors are worried that global economies will suffer if the effects of higher interest rates torpedo more lenders. Here is a rundown of some of the biggest financial crises in the last 40 years:

US SAVINGS AND LOAN CRISIS

Over 1,000 savings and loan (S&L) institutions were wiped out in the crisis that unfolded throughout the 1980s, resulting in up to US$124 billion in costs to taxpayers. The upheaval was rooted in the unsound real estate and commercial loans made by S&Ls after the United States removed interest-rate caps on their loans and deposits, which allowed them to take on more risk.

JUNK BOND CRASH

After nearly a decade of supercharged growth, the junk bond market slumped in the late 1980s following a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Michael Milken had helped popularize the financial instrument, with many using it as a way of funding leveraged buyouts. But supply eventually outpaced demand, and the market tanked. Milken was charged with securities and reporting violations. He paid a US$200 million fine and served a 22-month sentence in jail.

MEXICAN PESO CRISIS

In a surprise move in December 1994, Mexico devalued its currency, the peso, after the country's current account deficit grew and its international reserves declined. The country ended up getting external financial support from the International Monetary Fund and a US$50 billion bailout from the United States.

ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS

A massive outflow of capital from Asian economies in the mid-to-late 1990s put pressure on the currencies in the region, necessitating government support. The crisis kicked off in Thailand, where authorities had to devalue the Thai baht after months of trying to defend the currency's peg to the dollar drained its forex reserves. The contagion soon spread to other markets in Asia including Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia. Global bodies, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, had to step in with rescue packages amounting to more than $100 billion for the economies.

LONG TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (LTCM)

The highly leveraged US hedge fund lost more than US$4 billion in a span of a few months in 1998 following the Asian crisis and a subsequent financial crisis in Russia. The fund had a huge exposure to Russian government bonds, and took major losses after Russia defaulted on its debt and devalued its currency. The New York Federal Reserve Bank helped broker a US$3.5 billion private-sector bailout for LTCM and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in successive months.

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008

The biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression was rooted in risky loans to shaky borrowers, which started to lose value after central banks raised interest rates in the period leading up to the crisis. Many companies had taken big positions in highly leveraged mortgage bonds that had proliferated in previous years. The crisis led to the collapse of some storied Wall Street giants including Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, both of whom had large positions in mortgage securities. The debacle also engulfed insurance giant American International Group, which needed a US$180 billion bailout. The US government closed Washington Mutual, in what was largest-ever failure of a US bank. The "Great Recession" that resulted was the worst economic downturn in 70 years.

EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS

Spurred by the 2008 financial crisis, surging debt at some of the major European economies led to a loss of confidence in the region's businesses. Greece was among the hardest hit as its primary industries of shipping and tourism were economically sensitive. It was the first to be bailed out by other euro zone economies. Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus also were rescued from default, and unemployment surged, particularly in the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea.

 

 

 

 

 

Iraq halts northern crude oil exports to Turkey

Iraq halted 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and northern Kirkuk fields on Saturday, an oil official told Reuters, after the country won a longstanding arbitration case against Turkey.

In a case dating from 2014, Baghdad claimed that Turkey violated a joint agreement by allowing the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to export oil through a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Baghdad deems KRG exports as illegal.

"Iraq was officially informed by the International Court of Arbitration final ruling on Thursday and it was in favour of Iraq," a senior oil ministry official said.

Turkey informed Iraq that it will respect the arbitration ruling, a source said.

Turkish shipping officials told Iraqi employees at Turkey's Ceyhan oil export hub that no ship will be allowed to load Kurdish crude without the approval of the Iraqi government, according to a document seen by Reuters.

Turkey subsequently halted the pumping of Iraqi crude from the pipeline that leads to Ceyhan, a separate document seen by Reuters showed.

On Saturday, Iraq stopped pumping oil through its side of the pipeline which runs from its northern Kirkuk oil fields, one of the officials told Reuters.

Iraq had been pumping 370,000 bpd of KRG crude and 75,000 bpd of federal crude through the pipeline before it was halted, according to a source familiar with pipeline operations.

"A delegation from the oil ministry will travel to Turkey soon to meet energy officials to agree on new mechanism to export Iraq's northern crude oil in line with the arbitration ruling," a second oil ministry official said.

It could take years to refill oil reserve, says US Energy Secretary

It could take years for the United States to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the energy secretary told lawmakers, after sales directed by President Joe Biden last year pushed the stockpile to its lowest level since 1983.

"This year, it will be difficult for us to take advantage of this low price," Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told US representatives in a congressional hearing. "But we will continue to look for that low price into the future because we intend to be able to save the taxpayer dollars."

Biden administration officials have said they want to refill the reserve, after last year's historic sale of 180 million barrels, when the oil price consistently is around US$70 a barrel. Oil from that sale sold at about US$94 per barrel.

The price for benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures has fallen to around US$70 per barrel this week on worries about the economy amid crises at several banks. Granholm said at the hearing the administration wants to buy oil back at under US$72 a barrel.

The Department of Energy said last month it was implementing a three-part strategy to refill the reserve in the long term, including repurchases with about US$4.5 billion in revenues from previous sales, returns of more than 25 million barrels of oil from previous exchanges, and working with Congress to avoid "unnecessary sales unrelated to supply disruptions."

The department succeeded last year in persuading Congress to cancel sales it had mandated of about 140 million barrels that had been set to take place from fiscal year 2024 to fiscal year 2027.

Still, the DOE is moving forward with a sale of 26 million barrels from the SPR that was mandated by Congress in earlier years to help fund the federal budget. The oil will be delivered from April 01 to June 20.

Granholm said that sale and maintenance at two of the reserve's four sites will make it difficult to buy back oil this year.

Bryan Mound in Texas and Bayou Choctaw in Louisiana were both undergoing planned life extension work, the department said later.

The SPR currently holds about 372 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, in hollowed-out salt caverns along the Gulf Coast. Steel pumps and other equipment are constantly exposed to moist salty air.

US strikes Iran backed facilities in Syria

The US military carried out multiple air strikes in Syria on Thursday night against Iran-aligned groups whom it blamed for a drone attack that killed an American contractor, wounded another and also hurt five US troops, the Pentagon said.

Both the attack on US personnel and the retaliation were disclosed by the Pentagon at the same time late on Thursday.

The attack against US personnel took place at a coalition base near Hasakah in northeast Syria at approximately 1038 GMT on Thursday, it said.

The US intelligence community assessed that the one-way attack drone was Iranian in origin, the military said, a conclusion that could further aggravate already strained relations between Washington and Tehran.

Although US forces stationed in Syria have been targeted by drones before, fatalities are extremely rare.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the retaliatory strikes were carried out at the direction of President Joe Biden and targeted facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

"The air strikes were conducted in response to today's attack as well as a series of recent attacks against Coalition forces in Syria by groups affiliated with the IRGC," Austin said in a statement.

"No group will strike our troops with impunity."

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group that monitors the war in Syria, said the US strikes had left eight pro-Iranian fighters dead in Syria.

 

Chad nationalizes assets owned by Exxon Mobil

Chad has nationalized all the assets and rights including hydrocarbon permits and exploration and production authorizations that belonged to a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil, the Central African nation's energy and hydrocarbons ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

Exxon Mobil said in December 2022 that it had closed the sale of its operations Chad and Cameroon to London-listed Savannah Energy in a US$407 million deal, but the Chadian government contested the agreement, saying the final terms were different from what Exxon Mobil had presented.

It warned that it may ask courts to block Savannah's purchase of Exxon's assets in the country and take further steps to protect its interests.

Exxon's assets included a 40% stake in Chad's Doba oil project, which comprises seven producing oilfields with combined output of 28,000 barrels per day (bpd).

It also included Exxon's interest in the more than 1,000 kilometre (621 mile) Chad/Cameroon pipeline from the landlocked nation to the Atlantic Gulf of Guinea coast through which its crude is exported.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Foundation stone laid for Mall of Srinagar

In a big thrust for the development of Jammu & Kashmir, the Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha laid the foundation stone for the Mall of Srinagar, being developed by Dubai based EMAAR. Middle East retail major Lulu Hypermarket will be the anchor tenant of this ambitious project.

An MoU to this effect was signed by Rejith Radhakrishnan, Chief Operation Officer of Lulu India and Amit Jain, Group CEO of EMAAR on the side lines of groundbreaking ceremony of Mall of Srinagar at Sempora in Srinagar. The Indian rupee 250 crore project will be built on 1 million square feet of area and be ready by 2026.

As per the MOU, LuLu Group will be setting up its first hypermarket in J&K at the Mall of Srinagar with an approx. size of 100,000 sq. feet and will employ about 1,500 youth from the state directly for its operations after necessary training and development.

The occasion was also graced by Aman Puri, Consul General of India in Dubai, Maj. Gen. Sharafuddin Sharaf, Chairman of UAE India Business Council and Vice Chairman of Sharaf Group, Arun Kumar Mehta, Chief Secretary, J&K Government and other dignitaries.

“We are excited to enter J&K retail sector with this most modern hypermarket in this unique mall, which is being developed by Emaar Properties” said Yusuffali MA, Chairman of Lulu Group. “I am sure this project will not only boost the economic and tourism activities in the state but also give considerable employment opportunities to the local youth and support the farming sector immensely”, he added.

During the UAE visit by Lt. Gov Sinha last year Lulu Group had signed an MoU with J&K government to set up a “food processing and logistics hub” as part of their investments plans for Jammu & Kashmir to the tune of Indian rupee 200 crore in the first phase.

“Currently, the LuLu Group is exporting apples, saffron and dry fruits from the state to Lulu Hypermarkets in the Middle East, Egypt and Far East”, said Rejith Radhakrishnan

Abu Dhabi based Lulu Group currently runs 248 Hypermarkets and Supermarkets across GCC countries, Egypt, Far East and India employing more than 65,000 people from various countries.

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette

Saudi Arabia follows Iran in reestablishing ties with Syria

Saudi Arabia and Syria have agreed to reopen their embassies after cutting diplomatic ties more than a decade ago, three sources with knowledge of the matter said, a step that would mark a leap forward in Damascus's return to the Arab fold.

Contacts between Riyadh and Damascus had gathered momentum following a landmark agreement to re-establish ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a key ally of President Bashar al-Assad.

The re-establishment of ties between Riyadh and Damascus would mark the most significant development yet in moves by Arab states to normalize ties with Assad, who was shunned by many Western and Arab states after Syria's civil war began in 2011.

The two governments were "preparing to reopen embassies after Eid al-Fitr", in the second half of April.

The decision was the result of talks in Saudi Arabia with a senior Syrian intelligence official, according to one of the regional sources and a diplomat in the Gulf.

The apparently sudden breakthrough could indicate how the deal between Tehran and Riyadh may play into other crises in the region, where their rivalry has fuelled conflicts including the war in Syria.

The United States and several of its regional allies, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, had backed some of the Syrian rebels. Assad was able to defeat the insurgency across most of Syria thanks largely to Iran and Russia.

The United States, an ally of Saudi Arabia, has opposed moves by regional countries to normalize ties with Assad, citing his government's brutality during the conflict and the need to see progress towards a political solution.

The United Arab Emirates, another strategic US partner, has led the way in normalizing contacts with Assad, recently receiving him in Abu Dhabi with his wife.

The Gulf diplomat said the high-ranking Syrian intelligence official "stayed for days" in Riyadh and an agreement was struck to reopen embassies "very soon".

Syria was suspended from the Arab League in 2011 in response to Assad's brutal crackdown on protests.

Saudi's foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud earlier this month said engagement with Assad could lead to Syria's return to the Arab League, but it was currently too early to discuss such a step.

The diplomat said the Syrian-Saudi talks could pave the way for a vote to lift Syria's suspension during the next Arab summit, expected to be held in Saudi Arabia in April.

The United Arab Emirates reopened its embassy in Damascus in 2018, arguing Arab countries needed more of a presence in resolving the Syrian conflict.

While Assad has basked in renewed contacts with Arab states that once shunned him, US sanctions remain a major complicating factor for countries seeking to expand commercial ties.

Netanyahu causing cumulative damage to US-Israel ties

In a rare move, the US State Department called Israeli envoy Mike Herzog in to voice its displeasure at the Knesset vote the night before repealing the 2005 Disengagement Law in northern Samaria.

According to a brief readout of that meeting, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman conveyed Washington’s concern over the move, including the prohibition on establishing settlements in the northern West Bank. They also discussed the importance of all parties refraining from actions or rhetoric that could further inflame tensions leading into the Ramadan, Passover and Easter holidays.

There was no word regarding how Herzog responded, and neither the Foreign Ministry nor the Prime Minister’s Office statement. What Herzog could have reminded Sherman, but probably did not, is that this was a decision made by the democratically elected government of Israel and passed democratically by its parliament.

Why stress that point? Because the Americans over the last several weeks have expressed concern about the judicial overhaul proposal and the democratic direction of the country. Herzog could have said, “You want democracy? Well, this is democracy.”

Yet, not every decision made democratically is wise, nor the timing particularly opportune. And this is one of those cases.

Not for nothing did Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu block this type of bill from passing the Knesset in the past.

In March 2019, before the first of a cycle of five elections, then-justice minister Ayelet Shaked said that Netanyahu had blocked the cancellation of the Disengagement Law for political reasons, and that her New Right Party would work for the law’s repeal in the next coalition. The prime minister reportedly kept the bill from progressing on numerous occasions from 2015–2019 because he understood its sensitivity, including the impact in could have on his relations with Washington.

It’s a shame that Netanyahu, circa 2023, did not listen to Netanyahu, circa 2015-2019.

Had he done so, it could have spared Israel a reprimand from the US State Department which characterized the law as “provocative and counterproductive,” saying that it contradicted prior commitments given to America 20 years ago by then-prime minister Ariel Sharon, and just a few days ago by the current government.

While Israel can withstand US disapproval of one policy or another, when the disagreements come in quick succession there is a concern about accumulative impact.

The Knesset Disengagement Law comes hot on the heels of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s utterance that there is “no such thing as a Palestinian people.” And that followed his comment that Huwara should be erased. Both remarks were condemned by the US.

This is in addition to America’s stated concern about the judicial reform bill. President Joe Biden, who has pointedly not yet invited Netanyahu to the White House for a meeting, spoke with the prime minister by phone this week and, according to a US readout of that conversation, “underscore[d] his belief that democratic values have always been, and must remain, a hallmark of the US-Israel relationship, that democratic societies are strengthened by genuine checks and balances, and that fundamental changes should be pursued with the broadest possible base of popular support.”

The aggregate of all this is negative, and is coming at a time when Iran continues moving closer to the nuclear finish line and Israel will need US assistance – diplomatic or otherwise – to prevent it from crossing that line and gaining nuclear capabilities.

It is also coming as some in the Democratic Party, and not only the usual suspects of far-Left progressives, are speaking of the need to curtail aid to Israel.

For instance, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy said on Sunday that Washington should condition its aid to Israel. “I think the United States needs to draw a harder line with this government,” he said in a CNN interview.

“If we’re going to continue to be in the business of supporting the Israeli government, they have to be in the continued business of a future Palestinian state.”

Even if the prime minister disagrees with these sentiments, the Netanyahu of past governments would have been attuned to them and adjusted policy accordingly.

The current Netanyahu, however, is not similarly attuned, and the result – as the summons of Herzog to the State Department attests – is bad for Israel-US ties.

Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saudi-Iranian foreign ministers to meet soon

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, have agreed to meet soon and pave the way for the re-opening of embassies under a deal to re-establish ties, Saudi state news agency SPA said on Thursday.

Earlier this month, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to revive relations after years of hostility that had threatened stability and security in the Gulf and helped fuel conflicts in the Middle East from Yemen to Syria.

The ministers spoke by phone to mark the occasion of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, SPA said.

Amirabdollahian emphasized during the call Iran's readiness to strengthen relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported.

The foreign ministers of the two countries agreed to meet each other as soon as possible and start preparations for the reopening of embassies and consulates, IRNA added.

The deal between the regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, was announced after previously undisclosed talks in Beijing between top security officials from the two countries.

Analysts say both sides stand to benefit from de-escalation, as Iran seeks to undercut US efforts to isolate it in the region and Saudi Arabia tries to focus on economic development.

Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was stormed during a dispute between the two countries over Riyadh's execution of a Shi'ite Muslim cleric.

The kingdom also has blamed Iran for missile and drone attacks on its oil facilities in 2019 as well as attacks on tankers in Gulf waters. Iran denied those allegations.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement has also carried out cross-border missile and drone attacks into Saudi Arabia, which leads a coalition fighting the Houthis, and in 2022 extended the strikes to the United Arab Emirates.