Bangladesh: Performance of interim government

Nearly three months have passed that the interim government (IG) has been in charge of a country devastated beyond comprehension. We the mere mortals, struggling to forget the nightmarish 15 years, can be forgiven for nurturing very high expectations from the new dispensation.

It will do us well to remember that the IG is not the caretaker government (CTG) of the past. It is very unique, given the circumstances in which it came to power—a popular youth-led uprising has validated not only the IG’s assumption of power but has also, ipso facto, granted approval for any and all legal actions it undertakes to rectify the damage to the nation’s institutions and agencies. The mutilation done to the nation would require more than run of the mill actions or traditional approach.

In passing it should be stressed that raising the issue of Hasina’s resignation at this point in time is out of place, some may see this as being ulteriorly motivated, and reeking of conspiracy.

It is of no consequence whether a person who assumed power in a dubious manner, was deposed through a popular uprising—there can be no greater mandate than this—and sought exile of their own volition, has tendered an official letter of resignation. We must admit that the president’s recent remarks regarding this have mystified us.

The various reform committee gives us a good idea of the sectoral reforms the IG wants to undertake. Unique situation requires unique response that may not necessarily conform to the normal methods and means of administering a country.

But while the IG goes about fixing things, it should keep the people informed about its policies and plan of action for rectification. The IG should keep in mind that although it is not bound by any timeframe and its framework of reference is very wide, its time limit is also not open-ended. And a “reasonable” timeframe is open to various interpretations. What the IG is doing should also be visible.

The first thing that still needs to be fully addressed is the administration, which seems to be influenced by the lingering presence of the Awami League. Reportedly, many beneficiaries of the past regime continue in important appointments. The longer they stay in the administration the more are the risks they pose to the successful implementation of the IG’s reform plans. The significance of the manufactured unrest in the RMG sector, sabotage of oil tankers, and various demands from different professional groups are well-orchestrated actions to nip the plans of the IG in the bud.

Apparently, it would seem that the administration is not moving fast enough for some quarter’s liking, and a feature post-revolution is the regime of intimidation and coercion imposed on certain quarters. While that is understandable under the circumstances, making haste while sorting out the muck of the last 15 years may be counterproductive.

The public has certain expectations as well as grievances, and some of these are manifested in the student outburst, demonstrated in their siege of the High Court for removal of judges appointed during the Hasina regime where personal fealty triumphed over qualification and merit. The latest outburst is against the person in Bangabhaban for reasons mentioned.

One of the gripes the students have, and justifiably so, is the continuation of some senior bureaucrats who thrived under the Hasina regime, and who were complicit in the destruction of the state institutions and misuse of the state agencies for partisan gains. This goes for all sectors.

The education sector was a target of the students too. But witch-hunting is not the answer. Admittedly, the public universities were caderised from the vice chancellor down to the junior most lecturer. Most of them did not meet the minimum requirements of the post. One might say that it was a long-term plan to destroy the backbone of the nation by destroying the education sector.

It would also seem that the process of accountability is not moving fast enough. One hears the question “Where have all the crooks gone, and how?” Indeed, one may ask, once again, where have all the crooks gone? And by crooks, I mean all those that sought sanctuary inside the safety of the cantonments across the country after the student-led revolution that has been anointed with the very appropriate appellation of Monsoon Revolution, and many others who made good their escape quite a few days after the assumption of office of the IG. In fact, there is a general suspicion that the beneficiaries of the previous government may still be calling the shots.

A passing reference was made to this subject in one of my previous columns, but time has come to accord the issue more than a cursory glance. It is my distinct impression that the matter has been deliberately swept under the carpet hoping that, Bangalee memory being short, the matter would be forgotten. Well, not so soon.

A few questions need to be answered by the relevant individuals in positions of responsibility. Feigning ignorance will not sit well with the common man, who feels that allowing those responsible for bringing so much misery to the people—through wanton loot and plunder, siphoning billions out of the country, and particularly those directly responsible for the deaths of a thousand and the maiming of several times more—soils the blood of the martyrs. They must be held accountable.

Of the 170 million Bangladeshis, only 600 or so sought refuge inside the military establishments. Among them were politicians and senior members of the law enforcing agencies. The question is why. They must have done something wrong that they feared would incur public wrath. In fact, these were the people who would have left the country sooner but somehow couldn’t. Some of their cleverer and smarter colleagues had abandoned the Awami League boat no sooner than they realized that it had started taking in water.

In fact, abandoning the followers and leaving the country furtively for safer places during hard times has been the hallmark of the party leadership. History will bear out my comments. Therefore, to see the leader living up to the party tradition after August 05 was not a surprise.

My question is, in the future, will highly secured places within the country be used as sanctuaries for those responsible for killing democracy, looting public wealth, and committing the kinds of misdeeds that those seeking protection in the cantonments are alleged to have committed? Additionally, we are still at a loss to explain how many of these individuals managed to leave the country and who guaranteed them a safe exit.

The ultimate goal is to hold a participatory all-inclusive and acceptable election. Having said that, holding elections without fixing the systemic aberrations would take us back to square one. That would denigrate the sacrifice of the martyrs of the Monsoon Revolution. And it shall not be allowed to happen.

 Courtesy: Daily Star

Bangladesh: One month of hope and despair

A month ago, as Bangladesh teetered on the brink of chaos after the downfall of Sheikh Hasina, Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus returned home to steer the nation through political turbulence.

It was a dramatic turnaround for Yunus, who faced relentless legal peril at home but ultimately emerged as the savior of a scarred nation. Many feared that Yunus, the nemesis of Hasina, would land in jail during her tenure, but on August 08, 2024 he came back from Paris to a hero’s welcome and headed to the presidential palace to take over the helm of Bangladesh, a country in flux. His long-time tormentor, Hasina, had fled three days earlier.

The students, who had spearheaded the protests and catalyzed the people’s uprising, championed Yunus as their choice for the head of an interim government. People were relieved that he had indeed agreed to take charge. And as such, the economics professor came to personify the hopes and aspirations of Bangladesh.

His arrival ended a four-day power vacuum. He spoke to the media as if he was already in charge, celebrating what he said was a “second liberation”, imploring the countrymen to keep faith in him and sending a message of unity to the nation in times of an unprecedented crisis.

At Dhaka airport, he shared words of empathy with anti-government protesters. At times, he struggled to fight back tears, a rare display of grief, when he remembered Abu Sayed, who died in a hail of bullets fired by the police.

The first few days, as expected, were steeped in symbolism. His carefully chosen words – the rebirth of Bangladesh and renewal after a period of turmoil – resonated deeply with the audience.

Then came the hardest part. The interim government nervously began the heavy task of restoring law and order after weeks of deadly protests. A month went by, but the morale of the police force was still low. The police administration underwent major reshuffles in the past month. Officers largely stayed away from work and appeared to be reluctant to respond to disturbances.

Reprisal attacks spiked in the immediate aftermath of Hasina’s downfall, although it has now come down. But extortion and murder cases against journalists continue to be a big concern.

All of this means that maintaining law and order remains a formidable challenge for the interim government, as various groups try to exploit the social disorder to their advantage.

Yunus has initiated a major clean-up of key institutions, appointing a former IMF economist as the central bank governor to bring discipline to the banking sector.

Additionally, he has tasked another prominent economist with drafting a white paper on the entrenched corruption during Hasina’s 15-year tenure.

While the economy is still facing challenges, businesses are gradually recovering. The advisory council now faces the crucial task of implementing effective economic policies and reforms to rebuild public trust and attract foreign direct investment, ensuring long-term stability.

In the decades since the end of HM Ershad’s military rule in 1990, Bangladesh experienced an “economic miracle” that lifted tens of millions out of poverty, driven largely by a booming garment sector.

However, since emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, the country has suffered from high inflation, particularly in food prices, and shortages of foreign currency.

These issues are largely attributed to corruption and government mismanagement.

For political reasons, Hasina’s administration was reluctant to pursue serious economic reforms. The recent unrest has only exacerbated the country’s economic problems, with garment buyers cancelling orders, which require serious and urgent attention.

One priority for Yunus should be re-establishing the independence of the Election Commission to build confidence in the forthcoming polls with the top bosses gone. Under the former prime minister, parliament became a rubber stamp, the civil service and judiciary were highly politicized, and the media and civil society were closely controlled.

“While some of these institutions will quickly flourish in a more open environment, others will bear the scars of subordination for years to come,” the Crisis Group said in a report.

It’s a race against time for Yunus who took over on August 08 with a fledgling team. He brought swift changes to the civil administration, police, the Rapid Action Battalion, the Detective Branch and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence that Hasina exploited to create a culture of fear and intimidation. They enjoyed almost total impunity under Hasina’s administration.

It’s a monumental task for Yunus to make sure people have confidence they will not be arrested, abducted or even killed extrajudicially for political reasons.

Yunus also faces significant challenges in navigating the evolving geopolitical landscape, especially considering the aspirations of the Bangladeshi people. The relationship with India, traditionally seen as Hasina’s strongest supporter, has been strained due to Dhaka’s push for her extradition.

Although the interim government has stated that Hasina’s stay in New Delhi won’t affect bilateral relations, the changing public sentiment in Bangladesh requires careful management to maintain strategic cooperation with India and adopt a more balanced approach in foreign relations.

“In supporting her administration so staunchly despite its clear unpopularity, India has badly damaged itself in Bangladeshis’ eyes. If it now seems to be standing in the way of reform, it will only amplify anti-India sentiment, which could linger to the detriment of neighbourly relations,” the Crisis Group said.

India should instead support the interim government, and revive links with other parties too as part of a political renewal in Bangladesh.

The interim government faces numerous challenges as citizens demand justice on multiple fronts. It must priorities addressing the grievances of those affected by Hasina’s 15-year rule, implement necessary reforms and manage a smooth political transition. The new administration, at least for now, seems focused on “managing expectations from all sides.”

The domestic political landscape is fraught with challenges, as the uprising reflects deep dissatisfaction with the current system. The interim government, recognizing the urgency of the situation, has initiated dialogues with established political parties, civil society members, development partners and journalists to pursue reforms to create a more stable political environment.

One key option could be the revival of the caretaker government system, which was abolished by Hasina’s administration in 2011. This system could help ensure fair and transparent elections, reducing the risk of another autocratic leader emerging.

Hasina’s departure offers a unique opportunity to move beyond the hyper-partisan, winner-take-all electoral dynamics that have harmed Bangladeshi politics for the past three decades. It’s an opportunity to undo the past wrongdoings.

Courtesy: Daily Star

 

 

Bangladesh Floods: Natural Calamity or Manmade Disaster

The recent floods in Bangladesh have underscored the complex and often contentious nature of water management in South Asia. As the region faces increasing challenges from climate change and population growth, the need for cooperation and mutual respect between nations has never been more urgent. The disaster serves as a wake-up call, highlighting the critical importance of regional collaboration in managing shared resources and ensuring the well-being of all people in the region.

Bangladesh, frequently affected by natural calamities, is now enduring one of the worst floods in recent memory. While floods are common in this region, the current catastrophe is not solely attributable to nature’s wrath. Instead, it is being increasingly linked to the actions of neighboring India.

The recent and abrupt release of water from the Dumbur Dam in India’s Tripura State, located upstream of the Gumti River, has sparked unprecedented flooding in Bangladesh’s eastern border districts. This incident has intensified long-standing tensions between the two countries, with Bangladesh accusing India of negligence and poor management of their shared water resources.

The flood’s impact has been nothing short of catastrophic. More than three million people have been affected, with vast areas of farmland, homes, and infrastructure swallowed by the surging waters. The districts of Feni, Parshuram, Fulgazi, and Chhagalnaiya have suffered the most, as the Chhota Feni River, along with the Muhuri, Silonia, and Kahua rivers, swelled beyond control.

Residents of these regions are in shock, noting that such severe flooding has not been witnessed in over three decades. The immediate trigger for this disaster, as widely believed in Bangladesh, was India’s decision to release water from the Dumbur Dam.

Indian authorities, however, have pointed to heavy rainfall in the Gumti River’s catchment areas as the primary reason for the dam’s release. Nonetheless, Bangladeshi officials and local media remain adamant that the scale of the flooding could have been mitigated with better management and communication from the Indian side.

In response to the growing accusations, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has defended its actions, stating that the water release from the Dumbur Dam was an automatic response to the heavy inflow caused by intense rainfall.

According to the MEA, real-time flood data was shared with Bangladesh until the floods disrupted communication channels. Indian officials maintain that the crisis was an unavoidable consequence of natural forces and that they are not to blame for the resulting devastation.

Despite these explanations, Bangladesh remains skeptical. Officials in Dhaka argue that India’s handling of the dam and the subsequent communication breakdown significantly worsened the situation. They believe that India could have taken additional steps to minimize the impact of the water release, including better coordination with Bangladeshi authorities and ensuring contingency plans were in place for such emergencies.

The fact that communication between the two countries failed at a critical moment has raised alarm bells in Dhaka. This disruption has exposed serious flaws in the existing bilateral protocols, particularly in how emergency communications are managed. Whether due to inadequate preparedness or a lack of priority given to emergency communication, this failure has clearly exacerbated the disaster.

The flood crisis is not merely an environmental catastrophe; it carries significant political and diplomatic repercussions as well. The incident has strained the already fragile relations between India and Bangladesh, with public opinion in Bangladesh increasingly viewing India as an unreliable and negligent neighbor. This growing sentiment could have lasting effects on bilateral relations, particularly in areas such as water-sharing agreements, border management, and regional cooperation.

For years, Bangladesh has advocated for fair and equitable water-sharing agreements with India, given its reliance on trans-boundary rivers like the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Teesta. The recent floods have reignited these concerns, with calls growing louder for a more transparent and accountable system for managing shared water resources.

In the wake of this disaster, there is a strong push within Bangladesh for a reevaluation of its water-sharing arrangements with India. Many are demanding stricter regulations and more effective safeguards to prevent a recurrence of such incidents. Additionally, there is increasing support for greater international involvement in overseeing the management of these critical resources, considering the potential for cross-border disputes.

While the political and diplomatic fallout is significant, the human toll of the floods is devastating. Millions of people have been displaced, with many losing their homes, livelihoods, and, tragically, loved ones. The affected regions are now facing severe shortages of food, clean water, and medical supplies, as relief efforts struggle to address the magnitude of the disaster.

The floods have also deepened existing vulnerabilities in Bangladesh’s rural areas, where poverty and inadequate infrastructure make communities particularly susceptible to natural disasters. The long-term impact of the floods will likely be felt for years, as Bangladesh undertakes the arduous task of rebuilding and recovering from this calamity.

As Bangladesh contends with the aftermath of the floods, it is evident that the country must bolster its disaster preparedness and resilience. This involves not only improving infrastructure and early warning systems but also ensuring that neighboring countries are held accountable for actions that have cross-border consequences.

Bangladesh must continue to assert its rights and interests in regional discussions, particularly concerning water management and disaster response. For India, this incident should serve as a critical reminder of the importance of maintaining transparent and reliable relationships with its neighbors. Effective communication, collaboration, and a genuine commitment to resolving shared challenges are essential to preventing similar disasters in the future.

 

Bangladesh: Breaking free from Indian octopus

We are pleased to share with our readers a letter by Mahmudur Rahman published in South Asia Journal. He has talked in the least number of words about Indian hegemony in the region,

In the later years of my life, I completed a PhD thesis titled “The Rise of Indian Hegemony in South Asia and the Security of Small States.” This work was finalized in mid-2022, a period marked by the authoritarian rule of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, who maintained a firm grip over a population of 180 million. In brief, the conclusions of my research were as follows:

• As soon as British colonial rule in the subcontinent ended in 1947, India embarked on a relentless quest to establish complete hegemonic control over the region.

• Despite being relatively weaker both militarily and economically, Pakistan emerged as the primary regional barrier to India’s ambitions. Beyond the region, China also posed a formidable challenge to India’s hegemonic aspirations.

• Indian hegemony has been thwarted in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Afghanistan, and the Maldives.

• India has only managed to establish hegemony over Bhutan and Bangladesh in the region. In the case of Bhutan, this dominance has been maintained through a treaty signed in 1949, allowing Delhi to exercise absolute authority to this day. Consequently, Bhutan has been prevented from establishing official diplomatic relations with any of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. In contrast, India’s dominance over Bangladesh was achieved without any formal hegemonic treaty. Instead, India installed a brutally oppressive puppet government in 2009.

In the great revolution of August, the courageous students and citizens of Bangladesh, through unforgettable sacrifices and acts of heroism, have successfully overthrown the puppet regime installed by India. The murderous fascist Sheikh Hasina has fled to her master, India, to escape the public’s wrath. In a cruel twist of history, the very daughters of the fallen dictator Sheikh Mujib, who had come from Delhi in 1981 to execute India’s mission in Bangladesh, have now been humiliatingly forced to return to Delhi after forty-three years. The people of Bangladesh have, at long last, awakened. However, in the meantime, Hasina, a lackey of Delhi, left behind a trail of destruction, dismantling every institution of the state.

The judiciary has been so severely compromised that it no longer retains any semblance of legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Back in 2010, I authored an editorial titled

“A Farce in the Name of Independent Justice,” which resulted in my prolonged detention and torture by the Detective Branch and Rapid Action Battalion. The young heroes of today’s revolution may not even be aware of these incidents.

Due to Sheikh Hasina’s ruthless use of the police as her personal death squad, this essential state institution has become the object of extreme public hatred. Sixteen years of disgraceful sycophancy from the media have left the so-called fourth estate of the state devoid of any credibility.

The civil administration has been debilitated by pervasive partisanship and corruption, while the nation has been plunged into insurmountable debt under the guise of fake development.

My sympathy lies with Dr. Yunus’s government, which has inherited this lamentable legacy. None of the statistics produced by the fallen government of Bangladesh can be considered credible.

Since 2018, I have repeatedly communicated with the World Bank, ADB, and IMF, bringing to their attention Sheikh Hasina’s corruption and the manipulation of statistics. However, my warnings have been consistently disregarded. Whether the officials in these institutions in Bangladesh were themselves complicit in Hasina’s corruption remains unknown, but how else could they have blindly accepted such false statistics year after year? Surely, they are not all fools.

The critical question now emerges, will India quietly endure this catastrophe?

The fall and flight of Sheikh Hasina in a bloodless revolution is not merely a diplomatic setback for Delhi; it represents the most devastating strategic defeat for India’s hegemonic ambitions in South Asia.

Even the humiliating defeat of the Indian military in Sri Lanka in 1989 is surpassed by the revolution in Bangladesh. The most remarkable achievement of the young revolutionaries lies in the fact that they accomplished this without any external support.

For fifty-three years, we have been paying for the assistance taken from India during the liberation war of 1971. While every political faction in the country, whether left or right, alongside the media and so-called intellectuals, has persistently invoked the memory of 1971, they have simultaneously exploited us economically and dominated our internal politics.

This time, no external power can claim any credit. The United States, despite its rhetoric on democracy and human rights, ultimately deferred to India’s stance on Bangladesh.

The people of Bangladesh have liberated themselves from the shackles of fascism through extraordinary courage and sacrifice, as exemplified by Abu Saeed’s martyrdom. We owe no debt of gratitude to anyone.

Internationally, Dr. Yunus is widely recognized for his close ties with the United States. However, neither he nor any other civil society figure played a pivotal role in this revolution.

Notably, I cannot recall any instance where Dr. Yunus has taken a decisive stance against Indian hegemony in Bangladesh, nor has he publicly condemned Hasina’s enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and human rights abuses. What he may have done behind the scenes is unknown to the public.

Indian Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has always been vocal against Modi’s Hindutva and misrule. Nevertheless, we want to hope that Dr. Yunus will now take a stand against Indian hegemony. As the primary beneficiary of the people’s revolution, he bears a responsibility to repay the debt he owes to the people of Bangladesh.

Although more than a week has passed since the formation of the new government, we have yet to hear any statements from those in power regarding the lopsided agreements with India.

This piece concludes with a call for the formulation of a strategy, in unison with the people, to free Bangladesh from the clutches of the Indian octopus. Long live the revolution.

Bangladesh Zindabad.

 

Bangladesh: General Zaman not liked by India

Indian government officials had reportedly alerted former Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina about the potential dangers associated with the appointment of General Waker-Uz-Zaman as Army Chief in June of last year.

Despite these warnings, Hasina moved forward with the appointment, a decision that many analysts believe contributed to her recent political downfall.

In the face of rising youth protests, General Zaman took a hardline stance by issuing an ultimatum to Hasina, demanding that she and her sister leave the country.

The report also highlights a significant development in the political landscape, noting the Army’s swift decision to release opposition leader Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

This move suggests that Islamist groups, including Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatrashibir, may be poised to play a more influential role in the country’s politics moving forward.

General Zaman dedicated nearly four decades to military service, including two tours as a UN peacekeeper. He began his tenure as Chief of Army Staff in June, succeeding General SM Shafiuddin Ahmed.

His extensive experience includes commanding an infantry battalion, an independent infantry brigade, and an infantry division. He has also held significant staff positions at the Infantry Brigade, School of Infantry and Tactics, and Army Headquarters.

Educated at the Bangladesh Military Academy, General Zaman furthered his studies at the Defence Services Command and Staff College in Mirpur and the Joint Services Command and Staff College in the UK.

He holds advanced degrees in Defence Studies from both the National University of Bangladesh and King’s College, University of London.

As the principal staff officer to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at the Armed Forces Division, General Zaman played a critical role in shaping national defence strategies and international peacekeeping efforts.

His contributions have earned him the Army Medal of Glory (SGP) and the Extraordinary Service Medal (OSP) for his efforts in modernizing the army.

 

 

Pakistan not involved in ouster of Hasina

The Foreign Office (FO) on Friday rejected all statements emanating from India accusing Pakistan of being involved in the ouster of Bangladesh’s then-prime minister Sheikh Hasina, terming it New Delhi’s “disturbing obsession” with Islamabad.

The comments came after reports emerged from India blaming the Pakistan intelligence agencies for their involvement in the collapse of Bangladesh’s government.

The Bangladeshi military initially took over the country after a student-led protest forced the country’s Hasina to flee. Later, an interim government was formed with Bangladesh’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus sworn in as its head.

Reacting to the Indian media reports, FO spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, during a weekly press briefing in Islamabad today, rejected all such statements, stressing that Pakistan had no involvement in the events that took place in Bangladesh.

“These statements depict India’s disturbing obsession with Pakistan,” Baloch said in response to a question.

She said that Indian political ledgers and their media habitually blamed Pakistan for their failures in domestic and foreign policy.

The spokesperson added that Pakistan and Bangladesh had positive relations which had only continued to grow.

“The government and people of Pakistan have expressed their support and solidarity with the people of Bangladesh and we sincerely hope for a peaceful and swift return to normalcy,” said Baloch.

She went on to say that Pakistan was confident that the resilient spirit and unity of the Bangladeshi people would lead them towards a harmonious future.

The student-led movement that ousted Hasina grew out of protests against quotas in government jobs that spiraled in July, provoking a violent crackdown that drew global criticism, although the government denied using excessive force.

Hasina, 76, who had been in power since 2009, quit on Monday as hundreds of thousands of people flooded the streets of Dhaka. Jubilant crowds later stormed and looted her palace.

Monday’s events were the culmination of more than a month of unrest, which began as protests against a plan for quotas in government jobs but morphed into an anti-Hasina movement.

Hasina, who was accused of rigging the January elections and widespread human rights abuses, deployed security forces to quash the protests.

At least 455 people were killed in the unrest, according to an AFP tally based on police, government officials, and hospital doctors.

 

 

Is there any similarity between toppling of Hasina and Imran regimes?

According to my friend Muda Guppa, on Monday Sheikh Hasina prime minister of Bangladesh relinquished power that reminded a planned non-confidence move against ex-prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan. 

The only difference was that a member National Assembly, Shehbaz Sharif, became prime minister for the remaining term, whereas in Bangladesh chief of army became head of the government for the interim period till new elections are held.

Muda insisted that in change of regime in Bangladesh and Pakistan, United States played a key role, and the architect of change in regimes in both the countries was Donald Lu, US assistant secretary of state.

In the recent past I have been taking about three types of countries which United States hates.  During her three regimes Hasina made Bangladesh from strong to stronger, evident from GDP growth rate and foreign exchange reserves held by the country.

However, Bangladesh was lured to approach IMF for a bailout package.

Muda insisted that United States was not happy with Hasina due to her tilt towards China, which has been mediating between countries having long history of animosity. United States believed the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran would weaken its influence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

It is on record that Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) refused to join a naval task forces led by United States and some of the European countries to take action against Houthis of Yemen.

In the saga, India played the role of most trusted friend of Hasina, it took her out of Bangladesh and provided a safe haven.

Muda believes that the whole controversy started when students demanded to end the quota system for the children of those who had fought against Pakistan Army.

Therefore, India has to arrange for a safe exit of Hasina. She and her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman played a key role in turning East Pakistan into Bangladesh.

 

Bangladesh: Hasina resigns, army takes over

According to Sudi Gazette, the prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, resigned on Monday after weeks of deadly anti-government demonstrations gripped the South Asian nation.

The announcement from Bangladesh’s army chief, Gen. Waker-uz-Zaman, came after protesters stormed the official residence of the prime minister in the capital, Dhaka.

Images showed flames billowing from vehicles near Hasina’s house, with police unable to contain throngs of people charging towards the neighborhood.

Earlier in the day, the military and police had attacked demonstrators rallying in the area, according to a journalist working for CNN in Dhaka.

At least 91 people were killed and hundreds injured on Sunday in clashes between police and protesters demanding the scrapping of quotas for government jobs and the resignation of the prime minister. Opponents say the civil service job quotas are discriminatory.

The death toll on Sunday, which included 13 police officers, was the highest for a single day from any protests in the country’s recent history.

The figure surpassed the 67 deaths reported on July 19, when students took to the streets against the quotas, Reuters reported.

At least 32 children were killed during protests last month, UNICEF said on Friday.

The widespread unrest prompted the government to impose an indefinite nationwide curfew over the weekend. Meanwhile, human rights groups accused authorities of using excessive force against protesters, a charge the government denies.

The military will form an interim government in the wake of Hasina’s resignation, according to the army chief, who called on students “to maintain peace and help us.”

“Whatever demands you have, we will fulfill and bring back peace to the nation, please help us in this, stay away from violence,” Zaman said on Monday. He added that “the military will not fire at anyone, the police will not fire at anyone, I have given orders.”

Police opened fire on protesters in Dhaka earlier in the day, according to a journalist working for CNN, even as security forces have been under scrutiny for unleashing a wave of brutality on demonstrators.

At least four people sustained injuries as protesters were gathering at Dhaka Medical College on Monday, according to the journalist. One of those people was shot in the head.

Protesters told CNN that ⁠the military was blocking Dhaka Medical College Bakshibazar Gate. Police also used tear gas on protesters there, according to a demonstrator on the ground.

Students and protesters at Dhaka University Campus and the Shaheed Minar, a national monument in the capital, were beaten by police as they assembled at these locations.

Protesters there said that the police had attempted to break up the crowd by “brutally beating” them with bamboo sticks and using tear gas.

“Direct open firing took place in Shahbag area 15 minutes ago. We don’t have an estimate of how many were injured. It is still ongoing. Near Motijhil Shantinagar, tear gas has been fired on common people,” one demonstrator told CNN.

In other locations across Dhaka, the military has also fired warning shots in the sky and towards protesters.

Details and videos are scant as Bangladesh is in the midst of a “near-total national internet shutdown after earlier social media and mobile cuts” according to data from Netblocks, a global internet monitor.

Video posted on social media and verified by CNN showed security forces launching live rounds into the air near protesters on the N1 highway in Dhaka.

Protesters in Dhaka told CNN that the university campus was surrounded by armed forces.

The neighborhoods of Nilkhet, Katabon, and Shahbagh are currently blocked. ⁠The military’s armored personnel carriers have taken positions in front of the Intercontinental Hotel, and they are only letting doctors in.

Asif Mahmud, one of the key coordinators of the civil disobedience campaign, called on protesters to gather at 11:00 a.m. local time, adding that they planned to walk to Shahbagh in what they call the Long March to Dhaka.

 

Bangladesh state TV set ablaze

Protesters have set fire to the headquarters of the state broadcaster in Bangladesh as violent clashes between students and police continue, the authorities say.

A post on BTV's official Facebook page warned "many" were trapped inside the building in Dhaka, as it appealed for help from the fire service to put the blaze out.

Bangladesh's information minister told the BBC that broadcasts had been stopped and most employees had left the building in the capital.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had appeared on the network the night before, appealing for calm after days of violent protests which have left at least 17 people dead, possibly many more, and hundreds injured.

Students have been holding rallies demanding change to a system that reserves a third of public sector jobs for the relatives of veterans of the country’s war for independence from Pakistan in 1971.

The students are arguing that the system is discriminatory, asking for recruitment based on merit.

The government has been trying to quell the protests, on Thursday switching off the country's mobile internet in an attempt to slow the students.

Instead, it became the deadliest day so far, according to news agency AFP. According to its count citing hospitals, a total of 32 people have died during the protests - most of them on Thursday.

The BBC's Bengali service has confirmed 17 deaths so far - among them, a 32-year-old journalist for the Dhaka Times.

Sheikh Hasina had condemned protesters' deaths as "murder" in her Wednesday television appearance, but her words were largely dismissed by protest organizers.

Thursday saw tear gas and rubber bullets deployed by officers, as students created human blockades in the streets.

The students who stormed BTV had earlier "torched" a police station, according to an official at BTV.

"They chased the police officers when they took refuge at the BTV office," the official told AFP. "Angry protesters then caused mayhem here."

The Bangladeshi information minister Mohammad Ali Arafat told the BBC that the employees still inside the building were "feeling very unsafe".

"They [protesters] went in and vandalized," he said.

"Security forces are there fully but... they were present physically, they were not trying to put any counter-attack.

"But they'll be doing it now, they will warn everyone and then they will go full on to clear it up."

Bangladesh: Textile units suffering from financial crunch

According to a report by The Business Standard, Bangladesh’s textile sector is going through a financial crisis as banks are delaying payments amounting to Tk420 crore against letters of credit (LC), even after more than six months of maturity.

The issue has plunged 52 textile mills in a difficult situation, prompting urgent appeals for intervention from the central bank. A letter has been sent to the Bangladesh Bank governor on June 13, 2024 in this regard by the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA).

The letter signed by Mohammad Ali Khokon, president of BTMA, cited instances where banks have failed to release payments even six months past the maturity date of an LC. The letter said, “Despite providing goods on back-to-back LCs, some banks are not settling the bills promptly.”

According to BTMA sources, after a meeting with the Bangladesh Bank governor on June 11, a list of affected mills was submitted as per his instructions, highlighting instances where banks failed to clear bills even after the maturity dates of nearly US$36 million dollars in LCs for about 52 mills.

NZ Tex Group, one of the country’s largest textile mills, faced a payment delay of around US$2 million after supplying goods.

Saleudh Zaman Khan, managing director of NZ Tex Group, told The Business Standard, “Some of our LCs against bills are already overdue with banks. LCs are supposed to mitigate risks, yet banks charge commissions without ensuring timely payments.”

He further added, “If banks cannot disburse payments on time, why issue LCs and charge commissions? I can directly supply goods by managing risks myself.”

Basically, when an exporter receives a Letter of Credit (LC) against a foreign order, they can purchase goods from the local market on credit using that LC. This process is known as a back-to-back LC.

Local raw material suppliers are supposed to receive payment from the bank within 90 to 120 days after accepting the back-to-back LC from the local buyer. This period is known as the maturity date. If this time frame is exceeded, it is considered overdue. Currently, in some cases, the maturity date has been surpassed by anywhere from one month to even over a year.

Given the situation, stakeholders have expressed concerns over potential shutdowns if the current crisis persists.

A textile mill entrepreneur, requesting anonymity, told TBS, “Production is severely affected due to a twofold increase in gas prices. Combined with unpaid payments from banks, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to pay employees’ salaries and bonuses before Eid.”

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director of Mutual Trust Bank Limited, told TBS, “This problem has existed for a long time. Often, this happens because the textile millers who supply the products face delays in receiving their payments.”

“While bills from foreign buyers (typically RMG entrepreneurs) for imported raw materials are settled promptly, local textile mills often face delays in LC payments from banks and garment owners,” he added.

Noting that local textile millers are always on the back foot, he said, “Due to payment delays, their loans sometimes become classified as well.”

 

Bangladesh apparel export to US takes a dip

Bangladesh suffered the highest negative growth among competitor countries in exporting readymade garments to the United States in the January-April period of 2024.

According to the US Department of Commerce’s Office of Textiles and Apparel data released on Thursday, the country’s apparel exports to the United States, the largest export destination for Bangladesh, in the first four months of 2024 declined by 14.44% to US$2.31 billion compared with those of US$2.70 billion in the same period of 2023.

At the same time, apparel imports by the US from Vietnam grew by 0.31%, while those from China declined by 4.42%, according to the OTEXA data.

The data showed that Vietnam overtook China to become the largest readymade garments exporter to the US in the January-April period of 2024.

Exporters observed that despite a recent increase in US demand for apparel, Bangladesh failed to capture a larger market share due to factors such as longer shipment times and higher production costs.

They said that buyers had been placing more orders with Vietnam and China recently, due primarily to shorter delivery times.

The data showed that the US apparel imports from China decreased to US$4.32 billion in January-April 2024, down from US$4.52 billion in the same period the previous year.

Garments imports from Vietnam increased to US$4.38 billion in the four months of 2024, up from US$4.37 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The data also showed that the total US imports of readymade garments from the world in January-April of 2024 decreased by 6% to US$23.69 billion compared with those of US$25.20 billion in the same period of 2023.

Mohammad Hatem, executive president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said that despite an uptick in apparel demand in the US market, Bangladesh struggled to capitalize on this increased demand.

He identified prolonged shipment times a key factor hindering Bangladesh’s ability to seize a larger share of the growing demand.

According to Hatem, Bangladesh’s shipment times have been steadily lengthening due to issues such as customs-related delays at ports and production slowdowns caused by gas and electricity shortages.

He said that while major apparel manufacturing countries like China and Vietnam had experienced negative export growth globally in recent times, most other countries, except Bangladesh, had begun to narrow this gap.

Hatem pointed out that Vietnam had already shifted to a positive trajectory in exporting RMG to the US market.

“In Bangladesh, our factories are operating up to 70% capacity utilization due to energy shortages, prompting buyers to redirect orders to China and Vietnam for quicker deliveries,” he said.

Hatem also claimed that many factories struggled to accept orders at the prices offered by buyers due to rising utility costs and increased workers’ wages.

The OTEXA data showed that India’s readymade garments exports to the US market in the four months of 2024 declined by 5.02% to US$1.66 billion compared with those of US$1.75 billion in the same period of the previous year.

Readymade garments imports by the US from Indonesia in the four months of 2024 decreased by 8.46% to US$1.38 billion compared with those of US$1.51 billion in the same period of 2023.

The US apparel imports from Cambodia in January-April of 2024 increased by 7.92% to US$1.03 billion compared with those of US$951.93 million in the same period of 2023, the data showed.

 

China and India vying for influence Bangladesh

Bangladesh faces a complex diplomatic challenge as it navigates the competing interests of India and China regarding the Teesta River project. India is concerned about strategic security and maintaining regional influence, while China's involvement offers economic benefits and potential infrastructure development, raising India's geopolitical concerns. Bangladesh faces the challenge of balancing these interests while safeguarding its sovereignty, security, and development priorities.

The Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project, estimated to cost US$1 billion, has attracted significant interest from China, which has submitted a proposal for the project. An agreement might be signed during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s upcoming visit to China. In response, India has sent its foreign secretary, Vinay Mohan Kwatra, to Bangladesh, offering Indian funding for the Teesta project to counter China's involvement, putting Dhaka in a difficult position.

Both China and India have been vying for influence in Bangladesh. In the past, Bangladesh canceled the China-backed Sonadia deep-sea port project due to India's discomfort with China's growing presence in a strategically important area.

Now, the Teesta project has become the latest focal point of this geopolitical competition. India's keen interest in the project is driven by geographical and strategic factors, particularly the project's proximity to the "Chicken Neck" corridor, a vital area connecting India’s Northeast with the rest of the country.

Despite the strong relations between Bangladesh and India, the Teesta River water-sharing issue remains unresolved, heightening Dhaka’s impatience. India’s shift from promising a water-sharing treaty to offering to fund the project seems to be a strategic move to counter China's involvement. This approach raises questions about why India prefers to finance the project instead of ensuring Bangladesh's access to water.

The Teesta River project has significant implications for Bangladesh's relations with India and China. Bangladesh has to maintain neutrality in its foreign policy, as the project could force it to choose sides.

Engaging with India could strengthen bilateral relations but might alienate China. Conversely, partnering with China could yield economic benefits but strain relations with India.

Prime Minister Hasina might find it challenging to replace China with India in the project due to India's strict loan terms, slow disbursement, and questionable capacity to execute such a large-scale project.

Moreover, abandoning the project with China after already canceling the Sonadia port project could severely strain Bangladesh’s ties with Beijing, its top trade and defense partner.

Successful implementation of the Teesta River project requires nuanced diplomacy and strategic decision-making by Bangladesh. Dhaka must leverage its diplomatic channels to engage constructively with both India and China to ensure neither feels slighted, aligning the project with Bangladesh’s national interests and priorities.

Donald Lu in Dhaka again

Visiting United States assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu is scheduled to hold meetings with the ministries of foreign affairs and environment, forest and climate change.

During his visit, he would meet with government officials, civil society leaders, and other Bangladeshis to discuss US-Bangladesh cooperation, including addressing the climate crisis and deepening economic ties, according to a statement of the US embassy in Dhaka.

The US assistant secretary is scheduled to pay a courtesy call on foreign minister Hasan Mahmud and hold a meeting with foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen at the ministry.

Arriving in Dhaka on a three-day visit, Donald Lu on Tuesday had a meeting with civil society representatives at the residence of the US ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas in the afternoon before joining a dinner at the Gulshan residence of prime minister’s private industry and investment adviser Salman F Rahman, officials in Dhaka confirmed.

The Daily Star editor Mahfuz Anam, rights activist Nur Khan Liton, environmental activist Sohanur Rahman and labour leaders Kalpona Ahter and Babul Akter were present in the meeting with Lu at the ambassador’s residence.

Law minister Anisul Huq, state minister for commerce Ahsanul Islam, state minister for information and broadcasting Mohammad Ali Arafat, former state minister for foreign affairs Md Shahriar Alam and foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen, among others, attended the dinner hosted by Salman F Rahman.

During his previous visit in January 2023, he had a breakfast meeting with Salman at his residence.

Asked about specific reason why on the third visit to Bangladesh within 17 months the US assistant secretary was not holding meeting with any political party leaders unlike his previous two visits, the US state department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told a routine press briefing in Washington on May 13 that a lot of factors went into whom their government officials met with or not.

‘A lot of factors go into who our government officials meet with or not—the schedule, time of day, lots of other things. Assistant secretary Lu is on a swing through a number of South Asian countries—specifically India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. He is there to strengthen bilateral cooperation with each country and to demonstrate US support for a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region,’ he said,

‘In Bangladesh, he will meet with government officials, civil society leaders, and other Bangladeshis to talk about deepening our US-Bangladeshi cooperation, including deepening our economic ties in ways that we can collaborate further to address climate issues,’ Patel said, responding to a question whether the US had shifted its position on internal political matters of Bangladesh.

Foreign minister Hasan Mahmud said that the issues relating to the US visa policy for Bangladesh announced before the January 07 elections and Dhaka’s call for withdrawal of restrictions on the Rapid Action Battalion might come up during the visit of Donald Lu.

He said that Bangladesh had a very good relation with the US, and president Joe Biden, in a message to prime minister Sheikh Hasina conveyed on her assumption of office for the fourth consecutive term in January, expressed his willingness to take the relation to a new height.

In September 2023, the US Department of State announced that it had started imposing visa restrictions on individuals involved in undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.

The announcement came at a time when the Election Commission of Bangladesh started making preparations for the January 07 election.

In December 2021, the US imposed sanctions against seven former and serving officials of the RAB and the force itself over allegations of rights abuse.

Dhaka on several occasions called upon the US authorities for the withdrawal of the sanctions.

 

 

 

Workers migration from Bangladesh to Malaysia declines

According to The Bangladesh Chronicle,, workers migration from Bangladesh to Malaysia fell dramatically in the past months following Malaysia’s suspension of issuing electronic visas for aspiring migrants amid huge allegations of irregularities.

Malaysia kept hiring Bangladeshi workers suspended between September 2018 and August 2022 due to huge irregularities in the migration process on both sides.

The Southeast Asian country was the second top destination for Bangladeshi migrants after the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2023. 

While 351,683 Bangladeshis migrated to Malaysia in 2023, only 20,467 people migrated in the past two months.

Only 1,278 people migrated in the first 12 days of March, according to Bureau of Manpower, Employment, and Training data.

Migration experts said that Malaysia had suspended issuing electronic visas as allegations of syndicated market manipulation resurfaced.

State minister for expatriates’ welfare and overseas employment, Shofiqur Rahman Choudhury, said that the government was working to solve the problems.

‘We are trying to identify problems and find solutions,’ he said, adding that the government targeted sending more workers, giving skilled workers a priority. In the Malaysian system, a calling visa is needed to secure a job and complete the process, while an electronic visa is needed to enter the country.

The calling visa or demand note is issued by companies, while the authorities issue electronic visa.

Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies former secretary general Shameem Ahmed Chowdhury Noman said that over 40,000 people still have the calling visas but could not fly due to not getting electronic visas.

Experts said that the number of people having calling visas would be no less than 300,000.

Migration rights activists and sector insiders estimated that some 100,000 Bangladeshi workers could not manage any jobs in Malaysia, while many others were engaged in forced labour and remained underpaid or unpaid.

Andy Hall, a migrant rights activist and researcher in Malaysia, said that many foreign workers from different countries were facing the same exploitation in Malaysia, but it was acute in the case of Bangladeshi workers.

He explained that migrant workers became forced Workers and sometimes trafficking victims.

He said that workers were confined to locked shelters, their passports were confiscated, they were not given meals, and their movement was prohibited.

Andy said that many fake companies issue calling visas even though they do not need workers. When workers finally come, they send them to other companies for low-paid jobs.

Mofazzel Hossain from Meherpur said that he paid over Tk 400,000 as recruiting agency Musa International’s proprietor, Mohammad Musa Kalim, promised him to employ his son Taimur Zaman Nayan as a factory worker with a monthly pay of Tk 60,000.

‘When I talked to him last time, he wanted some money to buy food, but I did not know how to send the money,’ said Mofazzel, who filed a case against recruiter Musa and five others with the Gangni police station on February 27 seeking justice.

No one has been arrested so far in the case, according to the police.

Musa did not respond to phone calls or messages from New Age.

On February 26, Malaysia’s Home and Human Resource Ministry declared in a press statement that they had launched an investigation into the non-employment of 93 Bangladeshi workers in Cheras.

On March 8, Malaysian home minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail told The Star newspaper that foreign workers must enter the country by May 31.

He also asked valid employers to issue calling visa directly instead of through a syndicated server.

Shakirul Islam, chairman of the Ovibashi Karmi Unnayan Program, said that the aspirant migrants would bear the brunt of the sudden closure of the market, while recruiters, who already took money from aspirant migrants, would benefit.

‘Government agencies of both countries must bring the culprits to book,’ he said, adding that the Malaysian and Bangladeshi governments must ensure jobs for workers who are already there.

Officials at the expatriates’ welfare ministry said that they had already listed some recruiting agencies involved in unethical migration to Malaysia and restricted their activities.

 

Bangladesh offers lucrative deals for offshore gas exploration

Bangladesh is ending a yearlong hiatus on oil and gas exploration in the Bay of Bengal as it scrambles to plug dwindling energy reserves that could run out in under a decade.

On Sunday, the South Asian nation opened bidding to dozens of international companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and China's Sinopec, on 24 offshore blocks spread across 15 deep and nine shallow waters.

The bidding process, which ends an eight-year pause on exploration tenders, will be open for six months as Bangladesh grapples with energy shortages and struggles to pay for imported fuel and gas from its fast-shrinking dollar reserves.

The country faced a spike in fuel prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, forcing it to turn to the International Monetary Fund last year for a US$4.7 billion bailout package.

Despite being seen as a promising source of natural gas, Bangladesh has long struggled with lagging exploration, with just 18 wells drilled in the past 12 years, according to state energy company PetroBangla. Just four new gas fields were discovered over that period.

Analysts said a key reason was international companies exiting Bangladesh over unfavorable terms in production-sharing contracts (PSCs), which set how the government and a company will share risks, costs and profits from tapping natural resources.

The American energy giant ConocoPhillips terminated a contract in 2015, citing unfavorable terms, Australia's Santos and Singapore's KrisEnergy exited exploration projects in 2020 after incurring losses.

However, PetroBangla said new contracts will carry more favorable conditions.

"We have amended our last PSC, and the new contract model has attractive terms for the international companies," Chairman Zanendra Nath Sarker told Nikkei Asia.

The new contracts will offer a revenue-sharing model, a 5% higher share of production and better pricing mechanisms, he added.

"I think it's a win-win situation for both the parties," Sarker said.

Revenue-sharing contracts could work out better for the country, which didn't benefit from previous profit-sharing agreements, said Badrul Imam, a professor at the University of Dhaka's geology department.

"[They] led to unfavorable outcomes for Bangladesh due to cost-recovery provisions," he said. "This new PSC has already generated interest among many reputed companies. We need to understand that unless we tap the potential of our offshore gas reserves, we will face a severe energy crisis within the next 10 years."

Bangladesh's economic boom has been powered by natural gas, the main source of electricity generation for decades. But dwindling reserves from older fields and a growing reliance on imported LNG are making the country increasingly vulnerable to external factors affecting energy supply.

Over the past two decades, Bangladesh consumed about 13 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas, but only about 2 trillion cubic feet of new gas reserves were discovered over that period. The country's existing gas reserves are likely to be exhausted by 2033 in the absence of new discoveries.

Bangladesh's oil and gas exploration efforts in the Bay of Bengal also pale in comparison to neighboring India and Myanmar, which have both made frequent gas discoveries in the waterway.

The government's hesitance to explore these potentially rich offshore reserves "hindered domestic production and favored private businesses involved in LNG imports," Imam said.

Development of the energy sector has long lagged that of the power sector, said Shafiqul Alam, the lead energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a US-based think tank.

Bangladesh "provided more attention on the power sector capacity expansion" but could not step up its "efforts on enhancing energy security," Alam said.

Despite resolving maritime boundary disputes with Myanmar and India over the past decade, Bangladesh has yet to ramp up offshore gas exploration ‑ even as Myanmar made promising discoveries bordering Bangladesh's territory in the Bay of Bengal.

Niaz Asadullah, a professor of economics at Monash University Malaysia, said geopolitical considerations likely influenced the timeline of developments in Bangladesh's energy sector.

"The incumbent government increasingly favored non-Western companies, particularly when it prepared for a third term in power," Asadullah said, adding that the number of contracts awarded to the Russian state-owned company Gazprom for drilling gas wells had doubled in the past few years.

Meanwhile, Dhaka opened the door for more domestic power generation, transmission and distribution, awarding contracts worth at least US$4.5 billion to private and state-run Indian companies.

In January, Bangladesh's ruling Awami League and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won a fourth consecutive term.

"With the national election concluded, the government now feels well-placed to navigate the politics of new lucrative energy sector contracts with interested regional and international economic powers," Asadullah said.

Pak US relationship a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’

Soon after the results started pouring in following the February 08 general elections in Pakistan, several members of the US Congress, as well as the US State Department, expressed concern over alleged interference in the polls, with the former even calling on President Joe Biden not to recognize the incoming government until a transparent investigation into the allegations. I invite the readers to read a blog posted as back as on May 03, 2022.

In today’s blog I am daring to negate an impression created by an article written by Ms Maleeha Lodi (Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom and United Nations) and published in Pakistan’s leading English newspaper. I am taking an extreme position by saying, “Pakistan’s foreign policy has always remained subservient to the US mantra”.

Please allow me to begin with the U2 incident, when the US pilot-less planes used to takeoff from a Pakistani airbase near Peshawar for spying USSR. At one point the situation got so nasty that USSR threatened to attack Pakistan.

Badaber: A secret US intelligence facility in Pakistan

In July 1958, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower requested permission from the Pakistani Prime Minister Feroze Khan Noon for the United States to establish a secret intelligence facility in Pakistan and for the U-2 spy plane to fly from Pakistan. The U-2 flew at altitudes that could not be reached by Soviet fighter jets of the era; it was believed to be beyond the reach of Soviet missiles as well. A facility established in Badaber (Peshawar Air Station), 10 miles (16 km) from Peshawar, was a cover for a major communications intercept operation run by the United States National Security Agency (NSA). Badaber was an excellent location because of its proximity to Soviet central Asia. This enabled the monitoring of missile test sites, key infrastructure and communications. The U-2 "spy-in-the-sky" was allowed to use the Pakistan Air Force section of Peshawar Airport to gain vital photo intelligence in an era before satellite observation.

I would also invite the readers to recall last-minute cancellation of the visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and going to the United States around the same dates.

This also reminds me the US ditching Pakistan at the time of creation of Bangladesh. State-owned Pakistani media kept on telling the US feet could arrive any minute, which never arrived. This creates an impression that the US supported creation of Bangladesh.

Now coming to Afghan proxy war, Pakistan played two opposite roles: first it supported Taliban in averting USSR attack in a quest to reach warm water and then supporting US/Nato troops in crushing the same Taliban.

Please also allow me to share conspiracy theory, “Pakistan and United States have enjoyed cordial relationships due military rule”. The readers are invited to read details of Ayub, Zia and Musharraf eras.

I am also inclined to share another public opinion, The US-Pakistan relationship is a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’.

It is often said, ‘Pakistan is a frontline allay of United States in war against terrorism’. Some analysts interpret it ‘Pakistan is partner in proxy wars but when it comes to Investment and trade India is the US darling’.

I tend to subscribe to this theory based on my follow up of the construction of Chabahar Port in Iran. Despite economic sanctions on Iran, India invested millions of dollars in the construction of this port and allied road and rail links to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asian states. Please also note that Pakistan was not allowed to import oil from Iran during this period.

The United States was more than smart in facilitating India in the construction of Chabahar Port and allied infrastructure. The prime US motive was to create an alternative access to land-locked Afghanistan, extended to Central Asian states.

But the real objective was to undermine Pakistan’s importance in Afghan transit trade. There is no denying to the fact that Pakistan still offers cost effective and shortest route to Afghanistan.

Before I conclude let me say, “Pakistan under the influence of the United States has not recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan”. While Afghans are facing shortage of food and medicines, the two countries are not allowed to trade in local currencies; the United States has not released foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan.

 

Bangladesh: Apparel export to EU falls 20%

Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the European Union (EU) in the 11 months, from January to November 2023, declined by 19.92% to 16.26 billion euro from 20.30 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Exporters said that the shipment of readymade garments to the EU market decreased in recent months due to the economic slowdown caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Global brands and buyers also placed orders in lower quantity due to the election time in Bangladesh but the orders started to increase after the national election in the country.

They hoped that the export to EU would rebound in the next quarter as buyers started to increase their orders thanks to easing inflation.

According to data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the readymade garment imports of the EU from the world in January-November 2023 fell by nearly 10% cent to 82.71 billion euro from 91.89 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Apparel imports of the EU from China in the first 11 months of 2023 declined by 21.42% to 21.15 billion euro from 26.92 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Although China remained the top apparel exporter to the EU in value, the Eurostat data showed that, in terms of volume, Bangladesh emerged as the highest knitwear exporter to the market in January-November 2023.

Bangladesh’s woven garment exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 were reported at 6.89 billion kilogram while those of China were 5.74 billion kilogram.

In value terms, Bangladesh’s knitwear exports to the EU in January-November of 2023 were reported at 9.94 billion euro against China’s exports of 10.48 billion euro during the period under review.

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Faruque Hassan recently said that apparel exports to the EU would come back on a positive track in the second quarter of 2024 as the inflation was coming down in the western countries and retail sales were getting better.

He also said that not only Bangladesh but also all the major RMG suppliers witnessed negative growth in the EU and the United States as the global demand decreased due to the economic turmoil.

Apparel imports of the EU from Turkey in January-November of 2023 declined by 13.42% to 9.20 billion euro from 10.62 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

India’s RMG exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 also fell by 11.87% to 3.81 billion euro from 4.33 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

As against this, apparel imports of the EU from Vietnam during January-November of 2023 grew by 2.48% to 3.49 billion euro from 3.40 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

China committed to work with Hasina

Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen has congratulated Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for successfully holding of the 12th general election and Awami League’s victory.

Ambassador Yao conveyed warm congratulations and best wishes from Chinese leaders to Hasina.

The Chinese ambassador called on Hasina at Ganabhaban and reaffirmed that Chinese leaders are committed to working with her to carry forward the long-established friendship, enhance mutual trust, and deepen practical cooperation – thereby uplift the China-Bangladesh strategic partnership of cooperation to a new height.

Ambassador Yao noted that both China and Bangladesh are at a critical stage of development and revitalization, and China would always be the most trustworthy partner and the most reliable friend of Bangladesh on the way to modernization.

Under the guidance of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, China and Bangladesh have set a model of mutual respect and win-win cooperation, said the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka.

China will firmly support Bangladesh in safeguarding national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and in opposing external interference, it said.

China will also support Bangladesh in maintaining unity and stability, and in playing a more active role in international and regional affairs, said the embassy.

China is committed to assisting Bangladesh in realizing the ‘Vision 2041’ and the dream of ‘Sonar Bangla,’ it said.

Ambassador Yao said that China is prepared to strengthen all-round cooperation with Bangladesh, and take due actions to facilitate and expand trade and investment with Bangladesh, promote high-quality China-Bangladesh Belt and Road cooperation, and make its own contribution to realizing ‘Smart Bangladesh’.

Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina secures fourth straight term

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina swept to a fourth straight term in power, the poll body said on Monday, with her party winning almost 75% of the seats in a general election that was boycotted by the main opposition and drew a low turnout.

The main opposition, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which participated in the 2018 vote but kept away in 2014, boycotted the polls after Hasina refused their demands to resign and allow a neutral authority to run the general election.

The daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, founding father of Bangladesh who was killed in an army coup in 1975 along with most members of the family, Hasina, 76, first became prime minister in 1996. This will be her fifth term overall.

In her past 15 years in power she has been credited with turning around the economy and the massive garments industry, while winning international praise for sheltering Rohingya Muslims fleeing persecution in neighbouring Myanmar.

According to Reuters, Bangladeshis largely stayed away from Sunday's election, which was marred by violence. Turnout was about 40% when polls closed, said chief election commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal, compared with over 80% in the last election in 2018.

The ruling Awami League party won 223 seats out of 298, according to unofficial results released by the Election Commission on Monday.

Polls were held for 299 directly elected parliamentary seats with close to 120 million voters eligible to choose from nearly 2,000 contestants. The result of one seat was withheld due to irregularities while election to another seat will be held at a later date.

Hasina herself bagged 249,962 votes from her constituency Gopalganj, about 165 kilometres (103 miles) south of the capital Dhaka, while her nearest rival secured just 469 votes.

Among the ruling party winners were actor Ferdous Ahmed and former Bangladesh cricket captains Shakib Al Hasan and Mashrafe Mortaza.

Rights groups warned of a virtual one-party rule by Hasina's Awami League in the South Asian country of 170 million people while the United States and Western nations, key customers of Bangladesh's garment industry, had called for a free and fair election, the 12th since 1971.

"I am trying my best to ensure that democracy should continue in this country," Hasina said on Sunday after casting her vote, adding that her only accountability was to citizens of Bangladesh.

She has instructed party leaders and supporters not to bring out any victory processions or indulge in celebrations, said Awami League's general secretary Obaidul Quader.

Independent candidates, many of them Awami League party members of various ranks, won 61 seats, meaning the parliament will largely be without any credible opposition for the next five years.

The BNP, whose alliance won seven seats in the 2018 election, has accused the ruling party of propping up 'dummy' independent candidates to try to make the election look credible, a claim the Awami League has denied.

Critics accuse Hasina of authoritarianism, human rights violations, crackdowns on free speech and suppression of dissent.

The economy has also slowed sharply since the Russia-Ukraine war pushed up prices of fuel and food imports, forcing Bangladesh to turn last year to the International Monetary Fund for a $4.7 billion bailout. Inflation was 9.5% in November.

"The government must curb the crazy inflation. And I request them to lower tax and provide subsidies to poor people. We don't want anything else," said Abdul Halim, a plastic toy seller in Dhaka, while reading a newspaper pasted on a wall.

The BNP called a two-day strike nationwide through Sunday, asking people to shun the election, and said the low turnout was a success for their boycott call.

Hasina has accused the opposition of instigating anti-government protests that have rocked Dhaka since late October and killed at least 14 people.

At least four people were killed on Friday in a passenger train fire that the government called arson. Several polling booths, schools and a Buddhist monastery were also set ablaze days before the poll.

Shakil Ahmed, an assistant professor at Jahangirnagar University in Dhaka, said the latest polls would do little to ease the political upheaval in Bangladesh and warned that violence could continue post election.

"I think the immediate challenge for the prime minister is to stabilise the consumer market for common people. This election is not the answer to the debacle of politics in Bangladesh," he said.