Will India Make Any Attempt to Save Hasina?

The situation surrounding Sheikh Hasina has entered a critical phase as a Dhaka court prepares to announce a televised verdict expected to convict the former prime minister on charges of crimes against humanity linked to last year’s student-led protests. Her son, Sajeeb Wazed, has stated that the outcome is predetermined, a death sentence is likely, but Hasina is secure in India under full protection.

The core question is whether India will intervene in any form. Hasina has lived in exile in New Delhi since August 2024, and according to her son, she is being treated “like a head of state.” This indicates that India has already taken a clear position: providing her sanctuary. Whether that extends to diplomatic or political intervention is less certain.

India’s relationship with Hasina has been long and strategic. Her 15 years in power offered New Delhi stability across a sensitive border and alignment on security issues. Losing that political stability in Bangladesh carries regional implications, especially given the scale of unrest reported by the United Nations: up to 1,400 deaths and thousands injured during the July–August 2024 protests.

The interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, rejects claims of political motivation, stressing the transparency of the tribunal. However, the broader context includes the suspension of the Awami League’s registration, bans on its political activity, and ongoing detentions of its activists.

Wazed has warned that elections without the Awami League will not be allowed to proceed and that protests will escalate, potentially leading to violence. Recent crude bombings and arson in Dhaka indicate that tensions are already rising.

For India, intervening directly risks worsening anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh. Remaining passive, however, could result in Hasina facing severe judicial consequences and her supporters confronting a political dead-end.

India is likely to maintain a protective stance over Hasina’s physical safety while avoiding overt involvement in Bangladesh’s judicial or electoral process. Whether this limited approach will be enough as the situation deteriorates remains uncertain.