The disruption in Pak–Afghan transit trade has become a
contest of blame and bravado, but beneath the rhetoric lies a shared economic
loss. Both countries are paying the price for political posturing.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has termed the
situation a “blessing in disguise,” arguing that reduced cross-border movement
will curb smuggling, terrorism, and market distortion. Yet, the security
argument offers little comfort to exporters whose businesses now stand still.
Since mid-October, border crossings have remained closed,
leaving thousands of trucks stranded and trade worth over US$45 million in
limbo. Exporters of cement, textiles, footwear, fruits, and food items in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh are bearing the brunt. With more than 60
percent of Afghan imports already diverted to Iran, Central Asia, and Turkey,
Pakistan risks losing both the Afghan and Central Asian markets.
For Afghanistan, Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani
Baradar’s call to find alternate routes may project defiance and independence,
but the costs are real. Afghan traders rely on Pakistan’s ports and goods,
especially for food and medicines. Turning to Iran or Central Asia will
lengthen routes and raise costs, pushing prices higher for Afghan consumers.
Meanwhile, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan quietly emerge
as the real beneficiaries. Their ports and overland routes are gaining traction
as Afghanistan diversifies its trade options.
In the end, neither Islamabad nor Kabul wins. The prolonged
standoff damages trade, jobs, and investor confidence on both sides. What could
have been a bridge of mutual economic gain has turned into another front of
economic self-destruction.
The message is clear: political posturing may please
leaders, but it impoverishes nations.
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