United States No Exit from Pakistan

"No Exit from Pakistan" by Daniel S. Markey offers an in-depth analysis of the complex and often turbulent relationship between the United States and Pakistan. Markey, drawing on his extensive experience in South Asian affairs, explores the multifaceted nature of Pakistan and the challenges it presents to US foreign policy.​

Complex Pakistani Identity:

Markey portrays Pakistan as a nation with multiple identities: an elite-dominated society, a military-centric state, a breeding ground for terrorism, and a country with a youthful, idealistic population. This diversity complicates both internal governance and external relations.

US-Pakistan Relations:

The book traces the historical oscillations in US-Pakistan relations, highlighting periods of close military cooperation during Pakistan's military regimes and strained ties during its democratic transitions.

Anti-US Sentiment:

Markey delves into the roots of anti-US sentiments in Pakistan, noting that both conservative and liberal factions harbor distrust towards the US, albeit for different reasons. Conservatives view the US as untrustworthy, while liberals criticize US support for military dictatorships over democratic institutions.

The author presents three strategic options for the US:

Defensive Insulation:

Minimizing engagement with Pakistan while protecting US interests through intelligence and military means.

Military-First Cooperation:

Focusing on strengthening ties with Pakistan's military to achieve security objectives.

Comprehensive Cooperation:

Engaging with both civilian and military sectors to promote democratic institutions, economic development, and counter-terrorism efforts.

Markey emphasizes that there is "no exit" from Pakistan for the United States, underscoring the necessity of a nuanced and sustained engagement to navigate this intricate bilateral relationship.

 

Pakistan: 27 people die in rescue operation

According to CNN, nearly 350 hostages have been rescued at the end of a deadly standoff between Pakistan’s military and armed militants who hijacked a train in the southwestern Pakistani province of Baluchistan. The incident, which began Tuesday left dozens dead.

The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a militant separatist group active in the restive and mineral-rich Baluchistan province, claimed responsibility for the attack.

A total of 27 hostages were killed by the BLA, the security source said, as well as one soldier. At least 35 militants were killed in the rescue operation, the security source added.

Around 450 passengers were on the Jaffer Express enroute from Baluchistan’s capital Quetta to Peshawar in the north, when militants opened “intense gunfire” as the train traveled through a tunnel early in its journey, according to officials.

Pakistan’s military then launched an operation to confront the attackers who used “women and children as shields,” according to security sources not authorized to speak to CNN.

One rescued woman described scenes of chaos following the attack, likening it to the “Day of Judgement.” She told CNN she fled gunfire and walked for two hours to reach safety.

Passenger Mohammad Ashraf told CNN he saw more than 100 armed individuals on the train and that no harm was inflicted on women and children.

The security sources accused the militants of being in contact with handlers in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s military and government have long accused Afghanistan of providing sanctuary to militant groups, something its Taliban leaders have denied.

Tuesday’s kidnapping is an audacious moment for a separatist insurgency that seeks greater political autonomy and economic development in the strategically important and mineral-rich mountainous region.

But it also highlights the ever-deteriorating security situation there – one that Pakistan’s government has been grappling with for decades.

Baluchistan’s population – made up mostly of the ethnic Baloch group – is deeply disenfranchised, impoverished, and has been growing increasingly alienated from the federal government by decades of policies widely seen as discriminatory.

An insurgency there has been ongoing for decades but has gained traction in recent years since the province’s deep-water Gwadar port was leased to China, the jewel in the crown of Beijing’s “Belt and Road” infrastructure push in Pakistan.

The port, often touted as “the next Dubai,” has become a security nightmare with persistent bombings of vehicles carrying Chinese workers, resulting in many deaths.

Some analysts said Tuesday’s attack marked an escalation in the sophistication of attacks by the insurgents.

The “larger point that the Pakistani state is not grasping ... is that it’s not business as usual anymore,” said Abdul Basit, a Senior Associate Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“The insurgency has evolved both in its strategy and scale,” he added, saying Pakistan’s approach to tackle the Baloch militants’ “seem to have run its course.”

“Instead of revising its counterproductive policies, it is persisting with them, resulting in recurrent security and intelligence failures,” Basit said.

The BLA has been responsible for the deadliest attacks in Pakistan in the past year.

A suicide bombing by the BLA at a train station in Quetta killed more than two dozen people last November. The previous month, it claimed responsibility for an attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers, resulting in two deaths.

In the wake of Tuesday’s attack, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed to “continue to fight against the monster of terrorism until it is completely eradicated from the country.”

In a statement, he said the “terrorists’ targeting of innocent passengers during the peaceful and blessed month of Ramadan is a clear reflection that these terrorists have no connection with the religion of Islam, Pakistan and Baluchistan.”

Analysts say such attacks need urgent attention from the federal government.

“Tuesday’s attack has gained global attention and it will worry China, which has its investments in the province – more than any other state,” said Basit. “A major reset of existing security paradigm is required in Baluchistan.”

Pakistan: Militants hijack train in Baluchistan

According to the Saudi Gazette, a train carrying hundreds of passengers has been attacked and halted by armed militants in Pakistan's Baluchistan region.

The Baluch Liberation Army (BLA) confirmed it had attacked the Jaffar Express Train which was traveling from Quetta to Rawalpindi.

The militant group has also claimed the train is under their control.

Pakistani police told news reporters that they had received information that three people, including the train driver, had been injured in the attack.

Police added that security forces had been sent to the scene of the attack.

In a statement, the BLA, a militant separatist group, claimed responsibility for the attack and said they had taken hostages from the train, including security forces.

Officials from the provincial government or railways did not confirm on hostages being taken.

Security forces had reached the site of the incident, in the Mushqaf area of the Bolan district, a railway official said.

The provincial government has imposed emergency measures and all institutions have been mobilized to deal with the situation, government spokesperson Shahid Rind said.

A decades-long insurgency in Baluchistan by separatist militant groups has led to frequent attacks against the government, army and Chinese interests in the region, pressing demands for a share in mineral-rich resources.

The BLA seeks independence for Baluchistan. It is the biggest of several ethnic insurgent groups that have battled the South Asian nation’s government for decades, saying it unfairly exploits Baluchistan’s rich gas and mineral resources.

Pakistan: Suicide attack kills top cleric

The bombing of Darul Uloom Haqqania in KP’s Nowshera district on Friday marks a departure from the recent trend of militants targeting mostly security personnel and government officials. A number of victims lost their lives in the tragedy, including Maulana Hamidul Haq Haqqani, head of the institution, who appeared to be the religious heir of his murdered father, Maulana Samiul Haq.

The latter, along with his involvement in Pakistani politics, was known as the ‘Father of the Taliban’; he had earned the moniker because numerous high-ranking Afghan Taliban leaders had attended his madressah. Media reports have quoted police officials as saying that it was a suicide blast, and that Hamid Haqqani was the apparent target.

While no group has claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack, the Afghan Taliban have insinuated that the self-styled Islamic State may be involved. An Afghan interior ministry official, while condemning the attack, pinned the blame on “enemies of religion”, an apparent reference to IS.

Those familiar with the militancy dynamics of the region also concur that there is a strong possibility that this is IS-K’s handiwork, as the latter had been openly critical of the Haqqania seminary.

There is, of course, no love lost between the Afghan Taliban and IS, but from Pakistan’s point of view, if the attack were indeed traced to IS, it would signal a fresh security challenge in KP.

Already the province, as well as parts of Baluchistan, are witnessing frequent terrorist activity believed to be carried out by the banned TTP and affiliated groups. IS is an equally — if not more — ferocious entity, with global pretensions and a mediaeval, sectarian outlook.

What adds further credence to the belief that IS may be involved is that the group, and those adhering to its ideological narrative, view clerics who endorse democracy in any form with disdain. The late Haqqania head, as well as his father, were active in politics, along with their religious activities.

It is also a possibility that the Haqqanis’ strong links with the Afghan Taliban could have made them prime targets for rival militants. Only a thorough probe can establish the facts, while fresh IS activity in the country should be cause for considerable concern.

Nevertheless, the attack also offers an opportunity for Islamabad and Kabul to work together against a common, and highly dangerous foe.

Courtesy: Dawn

 

 

Improving Pakistan-Bangladesh Relations

Bangladesh’s foreign affairs adviser, Touhid Hossain, recently stated that there is no longer any reason for strained relations with Pakistan. This shift in sentiment is underscored by the announcement of Pakistan Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar’s planned visit to Dhaka in April, signaling a thaw in decades of frosty relations.

The change can be traced to August, when Bangladesh's former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted after 15 years in power. Her tenure was marked by a strong alliance with India, seen in bilateral agreements, trade, and security collaborations. However, her removal created a diplomatic shift, leading to a cooling of ties with New Delhi and an opening for improved relations with Pakistan.

This shift is significant given the historical grievances stemming from the 1971 Liberation War, which have long impacted relations. Despite this, recent months have seen several high-level engagements between Bangladesh and Pakistan, indicating a thaw. Notably, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, an adviser to Bangladesh’s interim government, met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif twice, highlighting the growing importance of ties with Pakistan over India.

Trade is emerging as a key area of cooperation. From August to December 2024, bilateral trade grew by 27%, and both countries signed an MOU in January to establish a joint business council. Similarly, in the defense sector, several high-level meetings between military officials from both countries have focused on regional security, joint military exercises, and arms trading. The term "brotherly countries" used by Pakistan’s military further signals a potential shift in South Asia’s security dynamics.

China also plays a strategic role, being a key partner to both nations. India’s concerns are rising, especially with Bangladesh’s interest in acquiring JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan, which could alter the regional balance of power. This development has the potential to deepen the trilateral ties between Bangladesh, Pakistan, and China, prompting India to reassess its diplomatic and military strategies.

India must adapt to the changing dynamics by adopting a pragmatic approach that acknowledges Bangladesh’s evolving priorities while reinforcing historical ties. This will ensure India remains a key player in South Asia’s shifting landscape. Managing these relationships is crucial for all three nations. Bangladesh must balance its new ties with Pakistan and its economic dependence on India, while Pakistan must recognize its economic limitations. India, in turn, must address Bangladesh’s grievances to avoid further alienation.

Handled carefully, this evolving relationship could reshape South Asia, proving that diplomacy can overcome even the most entrenched divides. This moment presents an opportunity for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India to redefine their futures in a geopolitically complex region.

ECO Regional Planning Council Meeting

The 35th Regional Planning Council (RPC) of Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) kicked off in Tehran with the participation of delegations from relevant ministries and organizations of ECO member countries. This council, as the key decision-making body of the organization, will discuss and approve the annual work program of the ECO.

This session is being held from February 24 to 27 at the ECO Secretariat with the presence of senior officials from ECO member countries to plan ECO activities for the year 2025.

The ECO Secretary General stated that in recent months, ECO activities to enhance cooperation between countries in various fields have seen a significant increase.

According to the ECO Secretary General, this meeting is of particular importance to mark 2025 as a milestone year with several important ministerial meetings in the fields of trade, tourism, finance, transportation, internal affairs, and sustainable development, as well as the 17th ECO Summit to be held on July 3-4, 2025, in Azerbaijan.

The RPC is the main technical planning body within ECO which comprises the heads of the Planning Organizations of the Member States as well as officials and experts from the national sectoral ministries and agencies. RPC convenes its annual meetings prior to the regular meeting of the Council of Ministers under the chairpersonship of the representative of the Member State holding the chairpersonship of the Council of Ministers. Meetings are normally held in the ECO Headquarters in Tehran.

The RPC is responsible for preparation of the programs of action for realizing the objectives of the Organization along with stocktaking of previous programs. It may also propose to the Council of Ministers the establishment of regional institutions and ad-hoc committees in priority areas of cooperation.

Annual RPC meetings are normally structured along one plenary session as well as several parallel sectoral committees dealing with the priority sectors of the Organization. One-year programs of work and ECO calendars of meetings are also developed by RPC meetings on the basis of the proposals made by the Secretariat and the Council of Permanent Representatives.

 

Pakistan: Torkham crossing remains closed

According to Saudi Gazette, Pakistani and Afghani border forces remained on high alert on Sunday as the Torkham crossing, a key trade and transit route between the two countries, remained shut for a second consecutive day following a dispute over the construction of a new checkpoint.

The border closure has halted all trade and passenger movement between Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province.

“Torkham border remains closed for all types of passenger and trade vehicles movement, and security forces on both sides are on alert,” a Pakistani security official stationed at the crossing told Anadolu.

No border flag meeting or communication committee talks have been scheduled to resolve the standoff, though efforts are reportedly underway to arrange discussions between officials.

The Torkham border is one of 18 crossings between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where decades of territorial disputes have led to frequent closures, disrupting trade and travel.

Tensions between the two countries have escalated since November 2023, when Pakistan launched a crackdown on illegal foreigners, mostly targeting Afghan refugees, and initiated their forced deportation.

Islamabad has also accused Afghanistan-based militants linked to the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of carrying out cross-border attacks, claiming that the Taliban government in Kabul has failed to act against them—an allegation the Taliban denies.

In December 2024, the Pakistani military launched airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province, marking the second such cross-border military operation since March 2024.

The Afghan Taliban claimed that Pakistani jets killed 46 civilians, including women and children, while Islamabad denied that civilians were targeted. 

 

Pakistan an important neighbor of Iran

Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif held a cordial meeting with Pakistan’s ambassador in Tehran, Muhammad Mudassir Tipu.

The two officials discussed the expansion of ties in various fields, including economy, security, and military domains. Cultural exchanges and the need to further increase them was another focus of discussions. 

“Pakistan is an important neighbor of Iran. This means that we should do our best to further enhance our ties,” Zarif said to the envoy.

The Iranian official who served as the country’s foreign minister for 8 years in the 2010s, traveled to Pakistan multiple times during his long tenure as a diplomat. 

For his part, Tipu briefed Zarif on the current state of bilateral ties, and reciprocated sentiments about the importance of enhanced cooperation between the two historically friendly countries. 

Iran and Pakistan have taken multiple steps to increase cooperation in recent years. Notably, a massive border market was inaugurated in 2023 by the leaders of the two countries.

Security collaboration has also become extremely significant, with the two nations facing similar threats posed by terrorists and smugglers.

 

PSX records modestly positive activities

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a modestly positive week, with the benchmark KSE-100 index gaining 716 points or 0.64%WoW, to close at 112,801 points on Friday, February 21, 2025. Market activity was largely driven by ongoing announcements of corporate results, particularly better than expected earnings by the cement companies.

The authorities' stance against imposing new taxes ahead of the upcoming IMF review boosted investor confidence, with expectations of smooth review process, expected next month.

On the macro front, foreign direct investment (FDI) surged by 56%YoY to US$1.5 billion in 7MFY25, primarily due to higher inflows from China into the power sector, especially Hydel projects.

Current account posted a deficit of US$420 million in January 2025 after three months of surplus, driven by 17%YoY increase in imports. However, the 7MFY25 balance remained in surplus at US$682 million.

Yields in the latest auction rose by 3 to 17bps, with 3-month yield on T-bills climbing to 11.82%.

Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) index declined by 1.87%YoY in 1HFY25, primarily due to a slowdown in construction-related sectors.

Market participation also improved, with average daily traded volume increasing by 14%WoW to 590 million shares, from 519 million shares a week ago.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$35 million to US$11.20 billion as of February 14, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF and Pakistan to discuss US$1bn climate finance talks next week, 2) overseas investors repatriate US$1.3 billion during first seven months of the current financial years, 3) IFC announces to invest US$2 billion annually in Pakistan’s infrastructure, 4) textile exports increased by 11%YoY in seven months, and 5) GoP decides to deregulate fuel prices and auction offshore blocks.

Glass ceramics, Jute, and textile spinning were amongst the top performing sectors, while Transport, Pharmaceuticals, and Close-end mutual funds reported were the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Foreigners with a net sell of US$8.6 million and US$5.1 million, respectively. Insurance companies, Individuals, and Companies absorbed most of the selling with an aggregate buy of US$14 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: BOP, FCCL, KTML, TGL, and DGKC, while laggards included: SAZEW, MEHT, SEARL, TRG, and ABOT.

According to AKD Securities market outlook remains positive, with the KSE-100 expected to be influenced by corporate earnings announcements, which could set the tone for sector-specific movements.

Any developments regarding the upcoming IMF review or the US$1.0 billion climate financing by IMF could further trigger positive momentum. Over the medium term, the KSE-100 is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in fertilizers, sustained ROEs in banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

 

Pakistan posts current account deficit in January

Pakistan has posted current account (CA) deficit of US$420 million in January 2025 as against a surplus of US$474 million in December 2024.

This was the first CA deficit since September 2024, shrinking the CA surplus during first seven months of the current financial year to US$682 million (which still compares well with a deficit of US$1.8 billion during 7MFY24).

A key reason for the deficit was the increase in goods imports (up by US$560 million MoM), about half of which was due to higher petroleum imports. This showed flat imports, which makes the negative CA balance less concerning. 

Goods trade deficit expanded to US$2.5 billion in January 2025 from US$1.8 billion a month ago, largely due to higher imports (up 11% MoM to US$5.4 billion) while exports fell 4% to US$2.9 billion.

Petroleum imports rose 25%MoM to US$1.6 billion, as compared to an average US$1.2 billion over the previous six months – despite January being an off-peak month for petroleum consumption (lower mobility during winter).

Overall goods imports were nearly flat MoM and petroleum imports fell 12% MoM to US$1.3 billion. The higher imports were due to a temporary difference (SBP data is cash based; and the payment for deliveries of previous months came due in January).

Goods exports were broadly flat around US$2.9 billion, but Textile exports were up a notable 14% MoM to US$1.7 billion. Food exports were down 19%MoM (rice exports fell 11%MoM).

Remittances were reported at US$3.0 billion but are likely to rise in the coming months' with the commencement Ramadan falls in March. Remittances increased 32%YoY during 7MFY25, to US$20.8 billion.

A narrow spread between the interbank and kerb exchange rates and a big outflow of skilled workers in recent years (driven by the economic crisis of 2022-23) were the key drivers for the increase in remittances.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan fell to US$11.4 billion by end January from US$11.7 billion at the start of the month, manlily due to debt repayments of about US$500 million and CA deficit.

Next IMF review is due in early March 2025, a favorable review should unlock the next US$1 billion tranche.

Pakistan is scheduled to launch a US$200 million panda bond auction in China by June 2025.

 

India-US Relations: Implications for Pakistan

The evolving relationship between the United States and India under the leadership of President Donald Trump demands closer attention of Pakistan’s ruling junta. This developing alliance raises concerns in Islamabad, as the strengthening ties between the two countries may deepen the already strained relations between the US and Pakistan.

Recent developments prompted Pakistan’s foreign office to publicly express its concerns following a meeting between President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A major point of contention was Trump’s offer to sell advanced military technologies, including F-35 jets, to India. This could have serious implications for Pakistan’s defense capabilities.

The joint communiqué issued after the meeting highlighted concerns about Pakistan's role in terrorism, calling for Pakistan to “expeditiously bring to justice” those responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2016 Pathankot incident. It further emphasized the need to prevent Pakistani territory from being used for cross-border terrorism.

Additionally, the appointment of S. Paul Kapur, a scholar of Indian origin known for his hawkish stance on Pakistan, as the US representative for South and Central Asia is seen as another sign of Washington’s increasingly critical view of Islamabad. His nomination adds to a growing list of individuals in the new US administration who are vocal critics of Pakistan’s policies.

Some vocal Pakistani expatriates in the United States, who supported Trump during his campaign, have been pushing for a tougher stance on Islamabad. This situation places the Pakistani government in a difficult position, it will once again have to prove its strategic value to US policymakers.

Meanwhile, New Delhi appears to be using its growing economic influence to deflect international scrutiny over its involvement in global assassination and terrorism networks, while simultaneously shifting the blame onto Pakistan.

In light of these challenges, Pakistan must adopt a more proactive approach in diplomacy, actively establish its credibility and strengthen its global position. Despite Pakistan’s long-standing engagement in the global war on terrorism and its ongoing counterterrorism cooperation with the US, the heavy toll on its people in social and economic terms remains largely unrecognized and underappreciated.

Moving forward, Pakistan needs to reassess its foreign and security policies, aligning them more closely with the expectations of its international allies while safeguarding its national interests.

 

OIC extraordinary session on Gaza

The Iranian Foreign Ministry's proposal to convene an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) foreign ministers to address the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza has reportedly gained significant support.

According to a report by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), citing an informed source within Iran's Foreign Ministry, the session is expected in the first half of March, following extensive diplomatic efforts by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The proposal, formally submitted to the OIC Secretary General, followed a series of recent consultations between Araghchi and his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Gambia, as well as the current OIC chair.

The discussions focused on possible measures against controversial US-Israeli plans to relocate Gazans to countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.

Araghchi has repeatedly condemned these proposals, warning that they would "complete the colonial erasure of Palestine."

He urged unified action to thwart this "conspiracy" against Palestinian rights.

“The US-Zionist plan to forcibly expel Gazans and scatter them across other nations is a blatant attempt to destroy Palestinian identity," Araghchi stated.

He further noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent suggestion of establishing a Palestinian state on Saudi territory was an "unprecedented aggression" and a "threat to regional peace and security."

Indirectly referencing Netanyahu’s remarks, Araghchi emphasized the need for the OIC to adopt "urgent measures" to prevent the normalization of "genocidal policies" by the Israeli regime.

He stressed that the international community, particularly Muslim-majority nations, must oppose efforts to legitimize violations of international law.

“The Organization of Islamic Cooperation must take a decisive and effective decision as soon as possible by holding an extraordinary meeting with the presence of the foreign ministers of the member states to defend the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people,” Iran's top diplomat said in a phone call with OIC Secretary General Hussein Ibrahim Taha.

US President Donald Trump recently proposed that Washington take “ownership” of the Gaza Strip and transform it into a tourism hub, permanently displacing the Palestinian inhabitants.

“We’ll own it [Gaza] and be responsible for clearing it out and rebuilding it into the Riviera of the Middle East [West Asia],” Trump said during a news conference with Israel’s convicted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu.

Later, while sitting next to Jordan’s King in the Oval Office, Trump refused to elaborate on how he would proceed with his plan, given the opposition from both the residents of Gaza and the countries to which he plans to relocate the population of over 2 million. He said the US would just “take” the territory.

The US president's statements have ignited international outrage, with rights and legal bodies accusing him of helping Israel complete the genocide it could not finish during 16 months of brutal war on Gaza.

 

Saudi Navy taking part in AMAN-25 Exercise in Pakistan

The Royal Saudi Navy is participating in the joint naval exercise titled “AMAN-25,” which started in Karachi, Pakistan on Friday, as part of its efforts to enhance international cooperation in maritime security.

Naval forces from as many as 60 countries are taking part in the five-day multinational maritime exercise, which aims to strengthen global collaboration in combating piracy and terrorism while improving security coordination among the participating naval forces.

The 9th edition of the naval drill, organized by the Pakistan Navy, focuses on safeguarding economic waters, sharing expertise, enhancing combat readiness, and preparing participants for complex maneuvers and counter-techniques.

The Royal Saudi Navy is participating in the exercise with two war ships –HMS Jazan and HMS Hail- along with specialized forces from the Marine Corps and the Royal Navy’s Special Security Units.

Pakistan on a path of implosion

It was what one may safely describe as a ‘memorable’ occasion. Exactly a year ago today, adult-aged Pakistanis from all faiths, cultures, ethnicities, and socioeconomic classes had headed to their assigned polling stations to cast their ballots in a much-delayed general election.

 was remarkable how many expectations they ended up defying that day. One recalls the unannounced blackout of all mobile communication services, enforced by the authorities shortly before polls opened, which had left people without access to vital election-related information and unable to contact their friends and families.

It was not enough to deter the over 59 million citizens’ intent on having their voices heard that day. One also recalls the smug predictions of television pundits and the surveys fed to the media in the run-up to Election Day. None of them prepared the nation for the coup ordinary Pakistanis pulled off merely with the help of a stamp and a ballot paper.

No observer can honestly deny that the last election’s results were highly unexpected.

Considerable effort was made to keep one party out of the race. The party’s leadership was jailed, its workers picked up, its electoral symbol withdrawn, and its candidates, even after being forced to declare themselves independents, not allowed to campaign.

If the previous elections were manipulated — perhaps by the same elements — to bring the PTI to power, they went out of their way to ensure that it did not have any chance this time around.

Despite all their machinations, however, the PTI ended up winning an unexpectedly large chunk of the popular vote.

The results announced two things: one, that Pakistan’s youth had finally arrived on the political scene, and two, that ordinary voters had overwhelmingly rejected the narratives set by the powers of the day. In this sense, the 2024 election was indeed a historic one.

Much went wrong after February 08, 2024, mainly because responsible individuals within the Pakistani state refused to come to terms with the country’s changed realities.

However, though the injustices that followed the last general election cannot be forgotten, it is equally important to start thinking about what must now be done to mitigate their effects.

The country has continued to march on a path of implosion, unable to contain the dissonance created by a conflict between what those controlling the state want and what the people want for themselves. Unless this fundamental conflict is resolved, the country will not be at peace with itself.

A war of egos has been fought between a handfuls of individuals at the cost of the well-being of millions of ordinary Pakistanis. This unnecessary war must be called to an end. The people of Pakistan have been wronged for too long. They need a change.

Dawn Editorial, February 08, 2025

Aman-25 focuses regional cooperation

The picturesque seafront of the Pakistan Navy Dockyard with windsurfers, sailboats and Navy boats painted a beautiful backdrop for the flagpoles from which fluttered the flags of 60 nations participating in the ninth Multinational Maritime Exercise ‘Aman-25’ on Friday morning.

The biennial exercise commenced with a formal flag-hoisting ceremony, followed by the cutting of a cake by senior representatives of the participating navies.

A message from the Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Naveed Ashraf, was read by Commodore Omar Farooq during the ceremony.

The naval chief welcomed the participants and highlighted that the exercise, which began in 2007, has now become a regular biennial feature, bringing together regional and ex­tra-regional navies to foster a secure and conducive maritime environment.

He emphasized the Pakistan Navy’s role as a key stakeholder in the Arabian Sea and its initiatives to enhance regional maritime security, including Regional Maritime Security Patrols.

He further stated that in recognition of the international community’s trust in its efforts to promote peace and stability at sea, Pakistan Navy has introduced the Aman Dialogue this year as an adjunct to the exercise.

Speaking on the occasion, Pakistan Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Abdul Munib underscored the force’s contributions to collaborative maritime security and the exercise’s significance in enhancing interoperability among the participants.

Rear Admiral Munib praised the participating countries for supporting Pakistan’s commitment to peace and maritime security and expressed the hope that the friendships fostered during the exercise would continue and grow.

The ninth edition of the exercise will see the participation of 12 naval ships, some of which have already arrived at the Karachi port while others are on their way.

China, with its Plans Baotou-133 and Plans Gaoyouhu, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with its HMS Jazan and HMS Hail ships, are the nations participating with two vessels each.

The other vessels include UAE’s Abu Dhabi (CVT) P-191, Malaysia’s KD Terengganu-174, Japan’s JS Murasame, Sri Lanka’s SLNS Vijayabahu, Indonesia’s KRI Bung Tomo-357, Iran’s Jamaran, Bangladesh’s BNS Somdura Joy, USA’s Lewis B. Puller and Oman’s RNOV Sadh. Meanwhile, Turkiye is participating with one aircraft.

There are also a number of special operation forces and observers taking part in the inaugural Aman Dialogue scheduled for February 09 to 10.

Bangladesh’s Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Nazmul Hassan, who arrived with his naval fleet, held meetings with Pakistan’s top military leadership on Friday in another sign of the improved bilateral ties between the two nations.

Admiral Hassan, who will also attend the inaugural Aman Dialogue on maritime security, called on the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza and Chief of Army Staff Gen Asim Munir.

He also held a bilateral meeting with Admiral Ashraf at the Naval Headquarters in Islamabad.

The meetings focused on the evolving regional security landscape and mutual strategic interests, particularly in maritime collaboration.

Both militaries explored avenues to strengthen defence ties, including joint naval exercises, training programs, and exchange visits.

Adm Hassan’s visit marks the second high-level engagement between the Bangladeshi Armed Forces and Pakistani military leadership in recent months.

On January 14, Lt Gen S.M. Kamrul Hassan, the principal staff officer of Bangladesh’s Armed Forces Division, led a military delegation to Pakistan, where both sides agreed to bolster defence cooperation and collaborate on regional peace efforts.

Observers see these developments as a shift in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations after years of estrangement.

Bangladesh’s participation in Pakistan’s multilateral naval exercise is considered a major step forward in military cooperation.

 

Kashmir Question

Almost eight decades since Pakistan and India became sovereign states, the Kashmir issue remains unresolved, bedevilling ties between the neighbours, with the people of the disputed region unable to exercise their right to self-determination.

Moreover, since the events of August 2019, India has tightened its grip over the occupied territory, removing the limited rights the held region had under the Indian constitution. Though, the hardline BJP government may think the Kashmir dispute is a thing of the past, the fact is that the territory remains internationally disputed, and no amount of constitutional tinkering and attempts to alter occupied Kashmir’s demography by New Delhi can change this reality.

The BJP government may like the world to think that it has transformed held Kashmir into a proverbial heaven on earth, but the dark reality of the Indian occupation cannot be hidden.

While Pakistan has long been raising the Kashmir issue at international forums, neutral observers, too, have pointed out the Indian state’s excesses in the disputed region.

For example, Human Rights Watch has said that journalists in IHK remain vulnerable to state violence, including physical assault and the threat of “fabricated criminal cases”. It adds that “hundreds of Kashmiris”, including journalists and human rights activists, remained in detention.

On the other hand, Amnesty International has also criticized India’s “arbitrary detentions” and “stringent anti-terror laws” in IHK. It also says that repression in the region has escalated since Article 370 was scrapped in 2019. These descriptions are a mere glimpse of the ugly reality of the occupied region.

The fact is that the only principled and peaceful solution to the Kashmir dispute remains the plebiscite the UN Security Council called for in 1949, after India had taken the Kashmir case to the world body.

Over the decades, no Indian government has taken any serious steps to implement the UN’s resolution, with the result that the Kashmir dispute has become a source of permanent discord in the subcontinent.

However, until there is a long-term solution in light of the aforementioned resolution, an alternative option for peace in Kashmir and the entire subcontinent would be the implementation of the four-point plan hammered out during the Musharraf era.

That scheme envisaged a ‘soft’ LoC, with free movement of people and goods across Kashmir, and eventual demilitarization.

If both sides, particularly India, are serious about peace, reviving this formula could be the starting point for fresh negotiations. The important thing is to continue the dialogue process, on bilateral disputes as well as the Kashmir issue, and move beyond rigid positions.

On Kashmir Solidarity Day today, Pakistan should reaffirm its support for the people of Kashmir. It should also keep the door open for India in case it decides to resolve the Kashmir question through dialogue.

Dawn Editorial of February 05 2025

 

 

Improving Iran-Pakistan bilateral relations

Reportedly, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Pakistan's Deputy Foreign Minister Amina Baloch discussed bilateral ties and regional developments. The meeting took place in Tehran, on the sidelines of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) meeting.

"Under President Pezeshkian's leadership, we aim to elevate our relationship with Pakistan. We recognize its significant role in our foreign policy," Araghchi stated.

He further highlighted the importance of sustained dialogues and interactions at the highest levels to capitalize on shared opportunities while tackling common challenges.

Baloch, reflecting on mutual interests and concerns, emphasized issues such as border security, drug trafficking, and illegal migration.

"Pakistan is committed to advancing the relationship with Iran. We aim for more robust cooperation both bilaterally and regionally to manage these shared challenges," she explained.

The meeting also provided an opportunity for the diplomats to discuss regional developments, including the situation in Afghanistan, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon.

Iran and Pakistan have historically maintained cordial ties. They share deep cultural and historical links and routinely support each other in international forums. Recent developments have further strengthened this close partnership.

In early 2024, the two countries demonstrated impressive diplomatic resolve by swiftly de-escalating border tensions through dialogue, leading to the inking of important security and military agreements in the ensuing months. Since then, significant efforts have been carried out to combat cross-border terrorism and ensure the security of the Iran-Pakistan border. 

The visit of Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, to Pakistan in early 2025 further solidified the two nations’ commitment to security and military cooperation.

Economic collaboration has also seen positive momentum in recent years, with several huge projects like the Iran-Pakistan (IP) Gas Pipeline underway. 

The visit of the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan in April 2024 marked a new chapter in economic engagements, with agreements signed to elevate bilateral trade to US$10 billion over the next five years.

 

Pakistan: Central bank cuts policy rate by 100bps

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday January 27, 2025 in its meeting reduced the benchmark policy rate by 100bps to 12.00%.

The MPC stressed adopting a cautious approach noting that core inflation remains elevated, with high frequency indicators showing gradual improvement. The impact of 1,000bps reduction in the policy rate since June 2024 will continue to unfold, driving growth.

The committee also added that 1QFY25 GDP growth remained below expectations.

Tax collection during 1HFY25 also remained below the target.

Global oil prices remained volatile and that the global economic policy environment has become more uncertain.

Going forward, economic activity is expected to gain more traction with GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 2.5 to 3.5%.

Headline inflation for FY25 is now expected to average between 5.5 to 7.5%, subject to risks from volatile commodity prices, adjustment to energy prices, volatile food prices and impact of revenue measures.

On the fiscal front achieving the target for primary surplus would be challenging, while overall deficit is likely to come close to the target.

Outlook for the current account has improved considerably due to robust remittances. The current account balance for FY25 is anticipated to swing between a surplus and a deficit of 0.5% of GDP.

 

AMAN-25 multinational maritime exercise

The Commander of the Pakistan Navy has expressed his enthusiasm about the participation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the forthcoming multinational maritime exercise, AMAN-25, set to take place in Karachi from February 07 to February 11.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Iranian news agency IRNA in Islamabad, Admiral Naveed Ashraf emphasized the long-standing and constructive relationship between Pakistan and Iran’s naval forces. He also indicated his eagerness to further expand and enhance this partnership.

During the official visit of General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, to Islamabad, Pakistan extended a formal invitation to Iran for the AMAN-25 exercise. 

Tehran welcomed the invitation, reinforcing the shared interest in strengthening military cooperation. 

Admiral Ashraf noted that Pakistan values the contributions made by the Iranian Navy in fostering stronger regional maritime cooperation. “We have much to learn from each other’s maritime experiences. As we look ahead to AMAN-25, the Pakistan Navy is eager to engage in deeper collaboration with Iran, especially through more focused bilateral and multilateral exercises,” Admiral Ashraf stated.

“As neighboring nations, we share a strong bond, and our mutual stance on maritime threats and challenges remains unwavering,” he added.

Admiral Ashraf highlighted his visit to Iran in 2021 and the reciprocal visit by Iran's naval commander to Pakistan in the summer of 2023. “The current level of cooperation between our naval forces is commendable, and I am optimistic that it will continue to grow,” he said.

Admiral Ashraf also discussed the evolving maritime security landscape in the region. He noted that the geopolitical environment remains unstable and complex, especially in the context of the region's growing geoeconomic competition.

“Our maritime security is closely linked to the rapidly changing dynamics of the Indian Ocean, and we must recalibrate our mutual interests accordingly,” he explained.

The Admiral also touched on the ongoing threats posed by actions in the Red Sea, particularly from Israel, which have escalated tensions and disrupted safe passage through vital maritime routes such as the Gulf of Aden.

“I believe neighboring countries can strengthen their collaboration within a focused regional maritime security framework to ensure that stability at sea is maintained through collective efforts,” Admiral Ashraf emphasized.

Further discussing regional security and naval capabilities, Admiral Ashraf highlighted Pakistan Navy's strides in domestic production, self-sufficiency, and technological advancements in shipbuilding, combat warships, missile systems, and commercial vessels.

He expressed a strong desire to partner with regional allies like Iran in areas of mutual interest, including advancing maritime technologies and capabilities. 

The multinational AMAN-25 maritime exercise is expected to draw over 50 nations, making it one of the most significant maritime exercises in the region.

The theme for this year is "Together for Peace," with a focus on strengthening regional and extraregional cooperation to maintain maritime order, enhance collective capabilities, and foster mutual understanding.

On Friday, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) naval forces have begun their solo large-scale military exercises in the southern provinces of Bushehr and Khuzestan, focusing on their coastal waters. 

In alignment with the guidance of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Iran's Armed Forces—comprising both the Army and the IRGC—have consistently been upgrading their military equipment and improving their operational readiness.

 

 

Iran's economic relations with its neighbors

In recent years, the economic relationships between Iran and its neighboring countries have grown in both complexity and significance. This economic integration is crucial for the development of Iran’s non-oil sector and its broader economic strategy, especially considering the geopolitical challenges that the country faces.

In this article, an effort has been made to explore the current state and future prospects of Iran’s trade with its neighbors, examine key sectors, trade volumes, and strategic partnerships.

As of late 2024, Iran’s non-oil trade with its neighbors has seen a notable increase. Non-oil trade volumes reached US$55.3 billion in the first 11 months of the year, with exports constituting 67 million tons of goods valued at US$25.8 billion and imports amounting to 21.4 million tons valued at US$29.4 billion.

This represents a significant increase in trade flows, driven by an increase in exports of petrochemical products, minerals, and agricultural goods.

Iran’s primary trading partners in the region include Iraq, the UAE, Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The UAE and Iraq are Iran’s two largest trade partners, especially in terms of exports.

For example, in the first seven months of 2024, Iran’s trade with Iraq was valued at US$7.6 billion, making it one of the most crucial destinations for Iranian goods. The major exports to Iraq include petrochemicals, cement, and agricultural products, while imports primarily consist of machinery and food items.

Turkey has also maintained its position as a key trading partner, with trade between the two countries amounting to US$9.9 billion in the same period. Iranian exports to Turkey largely consist of natural gas and petroleum products, while imports from Turkey are diverse, including electrical machinery and textiles.

Iran’s geopolitical location, bordered by 15 countries, gives it a strategic advantage in the trade of goods and services. This advantageous position allows Iran to serve as a key transit hub for goods moving between Central Asia, the Caucasus, and West Asia.

In particular, the development of international transport corridors, such as the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which links Iran with Russia, India, and Central Asia, is expected to enhance Iran’s role in regional trade.

Furthermore, the expansion of special economic zones, such as the Lamerd Free Trade Zone, has created new opportunities for businesses to engage in regional trade. This diversification of trade routes and infrastructure investment is expected to foster deeper economic ties with countries in the Persian Gulf and beyond.

Despite challenges, such as global sanctions and regional instability, Iran’s government has focused on expanding its non-oil exports, particularly to its neighbors. This strategy is part of a broader effort to reduce Iran’s dependency on oil revenues and diversify its economy.

The Iranian government’s push for stronger trade relations with Central Asia, Russia, and even countries like Oman and Turkmenistan, is driven by the need for economic diversification and the potential to access new markets. Iran’s trade with Russia, for example, has grown steadily, with recent figures showing a trade volume of US$1.5 billion in 2024.

The economic outlook for Iran’s trade with neighboring countries is promising. The country’s strategic location, combined with increased infrastructure investment and a strong focus on non-oil exports, positions Iran as a key player in the regional economy.

However, the ongoing challenges of sanctions and geopolitical tensions remain factors to consider as Iran continues to navigate its path toward economic diversification.

If these trade relationships continue to strengthen, Iran could significantly enhance its role as a regional economic hub, ensuring long-term stability and growth for its economy.