Pakistan’s Textile Industry

Perpetual Dependence on Preferential Treatment

Pakistan’s textile industry is once again seeking government intervention to safeguard its preferential access to the European Union under the GSP+ regime. In a letter dated October 22, 2026, the Pakistan Textile Council (PTC) urged Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to mobilize federal ministries and provincial governments to meet the EU’s requirements. While protecting export markets is a legitimate concern, the industry’s persistent dependence on government support raises a fundamental question, when will it learn to compete on merit rather than concessions?

For decades, Pakistan’s textile and clothing industry has benefited from cheap cotton, textile quotas and preferential market access under the GSP and GSP+ regimes. Yet, barring a few islands of excellence, much of the industry has failed to undertake adequate balancing, modernization and replacement (BMR), upgrade technology, improve quality standards and develop internationally competitive products. Its preference for exporting raw cotton, yarn and intermediate goods rather than moving decisively towards higher-value finished products reflects a persistent failure to capture greater value from the country’s resources.

Preferential access can provide breathing space, but it cannot substitute for productivity, innovation, compliance and efficient resource utilization. An industry that repeatedly seeks official intervention while neglecting structural weaknesses should not be surprised when competitors gain ground. Cheap inputs and tariff concessions may improve margins temporarily, but they cannot indefinitely compensate for inadequate investment, inconsistent quality and weak competitiveness.

The stakes are considerable. In FY2025-26, the EU-27 absorbed US$7.103 billion, or 39.5% of Pakistan’s textile and apparel exports. Yet sector exports to the bloc declined by 2%. Meanwhile, India is pursuing deeper trade integration with the EU, while Bangladesh is exploring closer trade ties. These developments expose Pakistan’s vulnerability to changing trade preferences.

The EU’s emphasis on human rights, labour standards, the rule of law and environmental protection must also be treated as more than bureaucratic hurdles. Compliance is integral to sustainable participation in modern global supply chains.

The government should pursue GSP+ retention through credible reforms, but the industry must reciprocate by investing in technology, skills, product development and value addition. Preferential access should be a bridge towards competitiveness, not a permanent crutch.

Pakistan cannot build a resilient export economy by repeatedly negotiating concessions while postponing the reforms needed to compete without them.

Beyond Refining: Building Pakistan’s Energy Backbone

Usama Qureshi has built a career on turnarounds. At K-Electric, as Chief Marketing Officer and Chief of Staff, he was part of the leadership team behind the utility's turnaround, a story later taught at Harvard Business School and the Harvard Kennedy School. As Managing Director and CEO of Hamdard Laboratories Pakistan, he led the modernization of a Pakistani household name. He began his career at Pakistan State Oil, on the team that revived its fuel cards business.

Since joining Cnergyico in 2021, becoming Vice Chairman in 2022, he has brought the same instinct to a business operating at national scale. He shapes long-term strategy, strengthens governance and makes the Company's case to government, regulators and international partners. He also sits on the boards of the Company's subsidiaries. Twenty-five years across energy, FMCG, fintech and telecommunications give him an unusually wide lens. He is Chief Executive Officer of Amps & Volts (formerly Oasis Energy), an electrical switchgear and power solutions manufacturer. He is also Strategic Advisor to Kuickpay, a payments aggregation platform.

Beyond the boardroom, he is one of the sector's most visible voices, writing and speaking on Pakistan's energy future and economic policy. He serves on the Global Advisory Council of the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC), which Cnergyico has joined as a Strategic Partner. He also champions Pakistan's trade and exports through the FPCCI and national business councils. He holds an MBA.

Followings are excerpts from an exclusive interview with Pakistan & Gulf Economist:

PAGE: Please tell us briefly about Cnergyico, from an oil refinery to an important component of Pakistan’s emerging energy infrastructure.

Usama Qureshi: Cnergyico’s journey has been one of continuous growth, integration and investment in Pakistan’s energy infrastructure. From our beginnings as a refining business, we have evolved into a vertically integrated energy company with operations spanning refining, petroleum marketing, storage, logistics and distribution.

Today, Cnergyico operates Pakistan’s largest oil refining complex by installed capacity, with a combined capacity of 156,000 barrels per day. Our infrastructure also includes the country’s first and only Single Buoy Mooring (SBM), substantial crude oil storage capacity and a nationwide network of more than 480 retail outlets under the byco brand.

This integrated model allows us to participate across the petroleum value chain, from importing crude oil and refining it into finished products to storing, distributing and marketing those products. As Pakistan’s energy requirements evolve, our objective is to strengthen energy security, diversify crude supply sources, improve product quality and progressively modernize our refining infrastructure.

PAGE: The company enjoys a few distinctions, including the largest refining capacity of 156,000 barrels per day. What has been the average capacity utilization and what is being done to improve it?

Qureshi: Our installed refining capacity is 156,000 barrels per day. Average utilization has been around 35%, or about 55,000 barrels per day. However, this must be viewed mainly in the context of local market demand, refining margins and the ability of the domestic market to absorb locally refined products. During the recent crisis, when imports were constrained and local demand was strong, Cnergyico increased throughput to more than 80,000 barrels per day.

The refinery is therefore not constrained by its technical nameplate capacity. Utilization is primarily driven by prevailing market and economic conditions. Our approach is to operate at levels that provide an optimal product yield and economic return rather than simply maximizing throughput irrespective of market conditions.

Going forward, we are working on several fronts to raise utilization on a sustainable basis: diversifying crude supply, securing better commercial terms, developing product exports through a second SBM and completing the refinery modernization program. Improved domestic demand and a more conducive refining environment will support this further.

PAGE: The company processes crude from different regions and has recently imported West African and American crude. How has the experience been?

Qureshi: One of Cnergyico’s key strengths is the flexibility of its refining configuration and associated infrastructure, which enables us to evaluate and process crude oil from diverse geographical sources.

Our processing of West African crudes demonstrated the refinery’s ability to handle crudes of different characteristics and complexity. Similarly, sourcing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from the United States has broadened Pakistan’s crude supply options beyond its traditional dependence on Middle Eastern suppliers. Our crude procurement decisions are commercial and

technical in nature. We assess each crude on landed cost, freight, product yields, refinery compatibility, financing terms, reliability of supply and prevailing market conditions. The ability to source from multiple regions gives us greater flexibility and contributes to Pakistan’s broader objective of energy security.

The experience has reinforced our view that diversification is strategically valuable. Rather than depending on a limited number of supply sources, we can evaluate opportunities across the international market and select crude grades that offer the best combination of operational compatibility, economics and supply security. This flexibility has served both the refinery and the country well during periods of supply disruption.

PAGE: Another unique feature is the Single Buoy Mooring (SBM) facility. How has this contributed to achieving higher synergy?

Qureshi: The SBM is one of Cnergyico’s most important strategic assets and provides a significant logistical advantage. It enables crude oil and petroleum products to be received offshore and transferred through dedicated pipelines directly to our storage and refining facilities.

The SBM can receive fully laden Suezmax and Aframax vessels, which cannot berth fully laden at Karachi Port or Port Qasim. It is connected to our onshore facilities through approximately 11.5 kilometres of subsea and 3.3 kilometres of onshore pipeline. This creates several synergies. It reduces dependence on conventional port infrastructure, enables the handling of larger crude cargoes, supports economies of scale, lowers logistics complexity and connects crude imports directly with our storage and refining complex.

The SBM was particularly useful in receiving our WTI and West African crude cargoes. On these longer voyages, the ability to bring in larger cargoes helps lower the freight cost per barrel. From a national perspective, this infrastructure also contributes to energy security and reduces pressure on conventional port facilities.

PAGE: Cnergyico owns and operates retail outlets and also supplies products to other OMCs. How does this help in achieving higher standards of finished products?

Qureshi: Our vertically integrated model provides an important advantage because we remain connected with the product throughout much of the value chain, from crude selection and refining to storage and ultimately the retail customer.

Cnergyico operates a nationwide network of more than 480 Byco outlets while also supplying petroleum products to other oil marketing companies and organizations. This gives us direct exposure to market requirements and customer expectations.

Quality control is maintained through established specifications and testing procedures at the refinery and across the supply chain. Having refining and marketing within the same business also provides valuable feedback on product performance, demand patterns and changing customer requirements. As we proceed with refinery modernization, this integration will become even more valuable. Our objective is to produce cleaner, higher-value fuels meeting Euro-V specifications while ensuring that quality is maintained throughout storage, transportation and delivery.

PAGE: Some analysts believe Cnergyico’s location is a bottleneck because transportation by bowsers is expensive and problematic during the monsoon season. How has the experience been?

Qureshi: Every industrial location presents a combination of logistical advantages and challenges. Our location at Hub provides a major strategic advantage because of its proximity to the coast and direct integration with our SBM, storage infrastructure and refining complex.

We recognize that inland movement of finished products by road tankers involves transportation costs and can face temporary disruption during extreme weather or poor road conditions. These challenges are not unique to Cnergyico and form part of the broader logistics environment in Pakistan. Our integrated storage and distribution network, inventory planning and supply chain management help mitigate these risks. Importantly, any assessment of our location must also take into account the advantages of direct offshore crude handling through the SBM, access to large cargoes and extensive on-site storage.

We continue to optimize our logistics footprint so that products reach different markets efficiently and reliably while maintaining the required safety and product quality standards.

PAGE: How does the proposed modernization program help in improving the quality of products?

The refinery modernization program is fundamental to Cnergyico’s long-term strategy. We have initiated work on a refinery upgrade project involving an investment of more than US$1 billion.

In September we signed the upgrade agreement with the Government under the refining policy. The project is designed to materially change our product slate. It will increase production of higher-value products, particularly High-Speed Diesel and Motor Gasoline, while significantly reducing production of Furnace Oil. Most importantly from a product quality perspective, the upgraded configuration will enable our products to meet Euro-V specifications, which means cleaner fuels with substantially improved environmental characteristics.

The upgrade will deliver benefits on several fronts: better product quality, a higher proportion of valuable transportation fuels, lower furnace oil output, improved refinery economics and a reduced environmental footprint. It also aligns Cnergyico with Pakistan’s broader objective of modernizing its refining sector and reducing dependence on imported finished products.

We are also planning a second SBM for product exports. This will improve refinery utilization, reduce our dependence on the local market alone and generate much-needed foreign exchange for the country.

PAGE: How did Cnergyico respond to the recent disruption in Gulf oil supplies and what role did it play in keeping the country supplied?

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year was one of the most serious energy security tests Pakistan has faced. Before the conflict, around 90 percent of the country’s oil and LNG imports passed through Hormuz. When imported finished products became difficult to secure, domestic refining became the country’s first line of supply. Cnergyico responded on three fronts.

First, we raised refinery throughput to more than 80,000 barrels per day to meet local demand at a time when imported products were scarce.

Second, because our crude sourcing was already diversified, we continued processing crude from outside the Gulf, including WTI from the United States and grades from West Africa. Over nine months we imported around 8.1 million barrels of US crude.

Third, our SBM allowed these large cargoes to be received directly at Hub without adding to congestion at Karachi’s ports, while our storage capacity and Byco network kept products moving to customers across the country.

The crisis showed in practical terms why domestic refining capacity, diverse crude sources and independent offshore import infrastructure matter for national energy security. It has also strengthened the case for our refinery upgrade and a second SBM, which will add further resilience.

PAGE: Cnergyico has returned to profitability after a difficult period. What drove this turnaround?

Qureshi: The last few years were challenging for the entire refining sector. High finance costs, limited working capital, weak local demand and competition from smuggled products all weighed on refinery economics. The company recorded a loss in FY2025.

FY2026 marked a clear turnaround. For the year ended June 30, 2026, Cnergyico reported a profit after tax of PKR10.75 billion compared with a loss of PKR2.90 billion the previous year. Sales rose to PKR410.2 billion from PKR296.7 billion and earnings per share were PKR1.96 against a loss per share of PKR0.53.

Several factors contributed. We diversified our crude sourcing and became the first refinery in Pakistan to process US crude, which improved product yields and operational flexibility.

We operated with tighter cost discipline and expanded product exports, earning foreign exchange for the country. Stronger refining margins during the crisis helped, but the groundwork for the recovery had been laid well before it.

Our focus now is to make this recovery sustainable through the upgrade program, higher utilization and a stronger export business.

PAGE: Cnergyico’s refinery is located away from the city in Balochistan. How does the company engage with the communities around it?

Qureshi: For us, CSR is not a set of one-off events. Our refinery has been part of this community for more than three decades and its progress is tied to ours. Our approach rests on three principles. We focus on the five villages closest to our operations. We work through established partners who bring expertise and accountability. We sustain our programs year after year so that communities can rely on them.

Education, with a focus on women:

Through our partnership with The Citizens Foundation (TCF), we support government primary schools in the area and provide transport so that children can reach school safely. We sponsor female teachers at a girl’s school in Gaddani and support young women from Mouza Kund training as midwives. Investing in women teachers and midwives builds skills that stay within the community.

Health and clean water:

Access to healthcare is limited in the area, so we run an ambulance service that connects the surrounding villages to hospitals in Hub and Karachi. We have also provided equipment to LRBT’s Secondary Eye Hospital in Quetta, extending our support for eye care across the province.

Clean drinking water is scarce in this part of coastal Balochistan. Our seven solar-powered reverse osmosis (RO) plants supply safe drinking water to five villages using renewable energy.

Livelihoods and dignity:

With Akhuwat, we support interest-free microfinance that helps families in Hub build their livelihoods. With Bioniks Welfare Organization, we provide prosthetic limbs to people who could not otherwise afford them, helping them return to work and daily life.

The refinery itself supports more than 3,000 direct and indirect jobs in the area, which remains our largest contribution to the local economy.

Environment:

Responsible operations are the foundation of our environmental commitment. A coral reef has developed along our subsea pipeline between the SBM and the refinery, a rare marine habitat in Pakistani waters that we continue to support. We have also planted trees around our refining complex.

Our biggest environmental contribution, however, will come from the refinery upgrade, which will produce Euro-V fuels with substantially lower sulphur content.

As the upgrade progresses, our footprint in the region will grow through more jobs, local procurement and cleaner fuels. We intend our community programs to grow alongside it.

The Shifting Paradigm of Pakistan’s Energy Sector

The prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has exposed a structural vulnerability in Pakistan’s energy supply chain: heavy dependence on imported crude oil and petroleum products moving through a strategically sensitive maritime corridor. What initially appeared to be a geopolitical challenge is now compelling Pakistan to rethink the architecture of its energy sector.

The incumbent government is reportedly engaging with oil-producing Arab countries to explore the establishment of crude oil and finished petroleum product storage facilities in Pakistan. If translated into concrete investments, this initiative could mark an important shift from Pakistan’s traditional model of importing petroleum largely on a shipment-to-shipment basis toward a more resilient system built around strategic storage, refining capacity and integrated logistics.

Pakistan has already announced plans to modernize its existing oil refineries. At the same time, proposals are being pursued for the establishment of a new greenfield or brownfield refinery. These initiatives should not be viewed as isolated projects. Together with additional storage capacity, they could trigger a broader transformation of the country’s downstream oil industry.

For decades, Pakistan’s refinery sector has struggled with ageing plants, technological limitations, inadequate investment and an unfavorable product mix. The modernization program provides an opportunity to address these weaknesses. Upgraded refineries could improve their ability to process different grades of crude, enhance yields of higher-value petroleum products and reduce dependence on imported finished products.

A new refinery, meanwhile, could complement rather than compete with existing capacity if planned according to future domestic demand and regional market requirements. The key is to avoid simply adding capacity without addressing efficiency, product quality, logistics and commercial viability. Pakistan needs refineries designed for the energy market of the future, not merely larger versions of yesterday’s facilities.

The proposed storage infrastructure could be equally significant. Pakistan has historically operated with limited strategic petroleum storage compared with the requirements of an economy dependent on imported energy. Adequate stocks of crude oil and finished products would provide greater flexibility during international supply disruptions, shipping constraints or sudden price volatility.

For Arab oil-producing countries, establishing storage facilities in Pakistan could also have commercial and strategic value. Storage closer to South Asian markets can potentially shorten supply chains, improve inventory management and facilitate timely deliveries. Pakistan, because of its geographic position, could emerge as a useful link between Middle Eastern producers and consumers in South Asia.

This development could consequently change the business model of oil marketing companies (OMCs). Instead of relying predominantly on imported finished products and conventional distribution networks, OMCs could increasingly operate within an integrated ecosystem involving local refining, bulk storage, transportation and inventory management. Competition may gradually shift from access to imported products toward efficiency, logistics, supply reliability and customer reach.

The logistics sector would also be affected. Expansion of storage facilities would require investment in ports, pipelines, tank farms, road and rail transportation, safety systems and digital inventory management. Such investment could create a wider energy-services ecosystem and generate opportunities beyond the petroleum sector itself.

However, infrastructure alone will not deliver a paradigm shift. Pakistan must ensure transparent regulations, commercially viable tariffs, efficient ports, reliable pipelines and a predictable taxation regime. Investment decisions extending over decades require policy continuity. Frequent changes in duties, pricing mechanisms and regulatory requirements can discourage precisely the long-term capital that the sector needs.

The government should therefore treat refinery modernization, new refining capacity and strategic storage as components of a single downstream energy strategy. Coordination among refineries, OMCs, ports, pipeline operators, financial institutions and regulators will be essential.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has demonstrated that energy security cannot depend solely on uninterrupted international shipping. Pakistan needs buffers within its own territory. Strategic storage, diversified supply arrangements, modern refineries and efficient logistics can collectively provide those buffers.

The emerging opportunity is therefore larger than the construction of a few refineries or storage tanks. It is about shifting Pakistan’s energy paradigm—from a predominantly import-dependent distribution model toward an integrated system combining refining, storage, logistics and strategic inventory management.

If implemented with commercial discipline and long-term policy consistency, the present challenge could become a catalyst for transforming Pakistan’s downstream petroleum industry. The objective should not merely be to survive the next disruption, but to build an energy infrastructure capable of absorbing future shocks while supporting industrial growth and national economic security.

Building Stronger and Sovereign Pakistan

As Pakistan celebrates another Independence Day, it is worth reflecting on what sovereignty means in the twenty-first century. It is no longer measured solely by territorial integrity or military capability. A truly sovereign nation is one that is food secure, economically resilient, financially stable and institutionally strong. It protects its borders while creating opportunities for its people, particularly its youth, whose aspirations will shape the country's future.

Pakistan has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout its history. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, economic pressures and security challenges, the nation has preserved its independence, strengthened its strategic capabilities and developed institutions capable of safeguarding its national interests. These achievements provide a solid foundation for the next stage of national progress.

National security remains indispensable. Pakistan has maintained credible deterrence in a challenging regional environment, ensuring peace through strength. Recent conflicts elsewhere have also underscored an important lesson: military preparedness alone cannot guarantee lasting security. Sustainable national power rests equally on economic vitality, technological advancement, food security and social cohesion.

Pakistan's strategic location offers immense opportunities. Situated at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and China, the country can serve as a vital hub for trade, energy and regional connectivity. Stronger economic cooperation with neighbouring countries, including Afghanistan, Iran and, whenever circumstances permit, India, can unlock new avenues for commerce, investment and shared prosperity.

Energy connectivity remains another strategic opportunity. Projects such as the Iran-Pakistan pipeline and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline have the potential to strengthen Pakistan's energy security while generating transit revenues and promoting regional integration. Advancing such initiatives through constructive diplomacy would contribute to long-term economic stability.

Economic sovereignty is built upon sound fundamentals. Pakistan must continue reducing fiscal and trade imbalances while strengthening public confidence in institutions. Consistent policies, transparent governance and effective implementation are essential to creating an environment where businesses invest with confidence and innovation flourishes.

Food security deserves equal priority. Pakistan possesses fertile land, a hardworking farming community and extensive irrigation infrastructure. Yet recurring shortages of essential commodities highlight the need for modern storage facilities, efficient supply chains and timely policy decisions. Preventing post-harvest losses and improving agricultural productivity will strengthen both national food security and economic stability.

Agriculture as a whole requires renewed attention. Reviving cotton production through high-quality, disease-resistant seed varieties, modern farming practices and greater research support would benefit farmers, strengthen the textile industry and increase export earnings. Likewise, investment in value-added agriculture can transform Pakistan from an exporter of raw commodities into a supplier of high-value products.

Industrial modernization must also become a national priority. Upgrading oil refineries, encouraging technological innovation and expanding manufacturing capacity will reduce import dependence while creating skilled employment. Predictable policies and a stable regulatory environment will encourage both domestic and foreign investment, enabling industries to compete more effectively in global markets.

Pakistan's greatest asset is its people. A young and energetic population, growing digital capabilities, entrepreneurial talent and an expanding technology sector offer tremendous potential. By investing in education, vocational training, research and innovation, Pakistan can build a knowledge-based economy capable of competing in an increasingly technology-driven world.

The country's future prosperity will depend on partnerships between government, private enterprise and academia. Together they can promote productivity, encourage exports, strengthen infrastructure and create employment opportunities for millions of young Pakistanis. Sustainable economic growth will reinforce national resilience and enhance Pakistan's standing in the international community.

As the nation celebrates its independence, the objective should not merely be to preserve sovereignty but to strengthen it. Economic self-reliance, food security, technological advancement, regional connectivity and good governance are not separate goals; together they form the pillars of enduring national strength.

Pakistan has overcome formidable challenges before, and it possesses every ingredient needed to build a more prosperous future. With prudent policies, strong institutions and a shared national purpose, the country can transform its strategic advantages into lasting economic success. That is the path to a stronger, more confident and truly sovereign Pakistan.

*This article was originally published in Pakistan & Gulf Economist

 

 

Formation of Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance

The founding members of the Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance on Thursday approvedthe establishment of the coalition as a framework for maritime defense cooperation, with Saudi Arabia designated as its founding nation, leader and permanent headquarters.

In a joint statement, the founding states said growing threats to global maritime security require stronger collective cooperation to protect freedom of navigation, international trade routes and global energy supply lines through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

The alliance said it will operate in accordance with international law, United Nations conventions and internationally recognized norms to enhance maritime security, safeguard international shipping and protect shared maritime interests.

The participating countries agreed to establish the alliance's Joint Command, command-and-control centers, Joint Maritime Operations Center and General Secretariat in Saudi Arabia as its principal executive bodies.

The statement reaffirmed the founding members' commitment to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, international law and globally recognized treaties and norms, describing maritime security as a shared responsibility that requires close coordination to address common and transnational threats.

The participating countries said they will continue completing their domestic legal and constitutional procedures to formally accede to the alliance's charter.

Under the agreement, members will expand cooperation in maritime security, intelligence and information sharing, operational planning, joint exercises, training, capacity building, lessons learned and joint maritime operations in accordance with the alliance's charter.

The statement stressed that the alliance is purely defensive in nature and is not directed against any country, alliance or international organization. It said all activities will be conducted in full compliance with international law, respect for state sovereignty and the protection of freedom of navigation, while participation in alliance activities and operations will remain a sovereign decision for each member state.

The founding members also invited other countries that share the alliance's objectives and principles to join the charter, saying broader participation would strengthen collective maritime security in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

The statement described the alliance as a strategic step toward enhancing maritime security, deepening defense cooperation among its members and supporting regional and global stability, while complementing international efforts to preserve international peace and security.

Earlier on Thursday, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia endorsed the alliance and welcomed agreement on its founding arrangements, while additional countries expressed support and are completing their national procedures before joining the initiative.

Pakistan's Western Borders Need More Than Military Vigilance

The recent wave of terrorist attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan is a sobering reminder that Pakistan's western frontier remains one of the country's most complex and persistent security challenges. Every attack claims precious lives, weakens investors’ confidence, disrupts trade, and raises fresh concerns about regional stability. Yet the real question is not merely who carried out these attacks, but why they continue despite years of counterterrorism operations.

Pakistan shares long and difficult borders with Afghanistan and Iran. Rugged terrain, cross-border tribal linkages, and extensive movement of people and goods make these frontiers among the hardest to secure. Border security is not solely a military responsibility; it also demands effective diplomacy, sound governance, and close regional cooperation.

Pakistani authorities have repeatedly expressed concerns that militant groups exploit territory across the western border to launch attacks inside Pakistan. However, an important distinction must be made. The existence of terrorist sanctuaries does not automatically imply state sponsorship. In many border regions, weak administrative control, porous frontiers, criminal networks, and ungoverned spaces can provide militants with opportunities to operate without necessarily reflecting official government policy. Recognizing this distinction is essential for objective analysis and effective policymaking.

At the same time, neighboring countries also bear an important responsibility. Under international law, every state is expected to ensure that its territory is not used for hostile activities against another country. Effective intelligence sharing, coordinated border management, and timely action against militant networks are therefore indispensable for regional peace and stability.

Another dimension deserves equal attention. Pakistan provides the shortest and most economical land route connecting Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea and has the potential to become a vital gateway for regional trade extending into Central Asia and beyond. Persistent instability along these corridors discourages investment, disrupts commerce, and undermines regional connectivity. It is therefore reasonable to ask who ultimately benefits from keeping Pakistan's western border unstable.

Pakistan's response extends beyond kinetic operations. Military action can eliminate terrorists, but lasting peace requires stronger border management, improved governance in border districts, sustained economic development, effective intelligence, and constructive engagement with both Kabul and Tehran. Pakistan's long-term success will depend not only on eliminating terrorists but also on dismantling the political, financial, logistical, and ideological ecosystem that allows them to recruit, regroup, and strike again.

TAPI: A Test of Regional Economic Cooperation

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline is one of the most significant energy connectivity projects linking Central and South Asia. The project aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan's giant Galkynysh gas field to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, helping meet growing energy demand while promoting regional economic integration.

The proposed pipeline, stretching about 1,800 kilometers, is designed to carry around 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. Besides supplying energy, the project is expected to generate transit revenues, create employment opportunities, and strengthen economic ties among participating countries.

Since its inception, TAPI has faced numerous challenges, including security concerns, financing constraints, and political tensions among regional stakeholders. These obstacles have repeatedly delayed the project's implementation and raised questions about its long-term viability.

Recent statements from Afghan officials, however, suggest that progress continues despite political strains between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Islamic Emirate spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid has stated that work on TAPI inside Afghanistan is proceeding normally and that regional economic projects have not been adversely affected by recent bilateral tensions. Afghan authorities maintain that TAPI, along with other regional initiatives such as CASA-1000 and the Trans-Afghan Railway, remains a priority for economic development.

Private-sector representatives in Afghanistan argue that accelerating these projects could strengthen regional trust and generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs. Economic analysts also believe that successful implementation could improve investor confidence and encourage greater regional cooperation.

For Pakistan, TAPI offers the prospect of diversifying energy supplies and reducing dependence on costly imported fuels. Afghanistan stands to benefit from transit fees and infrastructure development, while Turkmenistan would gain access to new export markets. India, if fully engaged, could secure an additional source of energy for its growing economy.

Despite renewed optimism, the ultimate success of TAPI will depend on sustained political commitment, effective security arrangements, and timely financing. The project remains a powerful symbol of the opportunities and challenges facing regional economic cooperation in Eurasia.

 

Indian Hegemony Being Questioned

In recent years, the notion of India as an uncontested regional hegemon in South Asia has increasingly come under scrutiny. While New Delhi continues to project itself as a rising global power and the “largest democracy,” regional realities are telling a more complex and less linear story.

At the core of India’s strategic narrative lies the assumption of economic scale, military modernization, and diplomatic outreach translating into unquestioned regional leadership. However, this assumption is being challenged on multiple fronts — from persistent border tensions with neighbours to shifting alignments within South and West Asia.

Countries in the region are no longer willing to align automatically with Indian preferences. Smaller South Asian states are increasingly pursuing multi-vector foreign policies, balancing ties with China, Gulf states, and Western powers rather than remaining within India’s traditional sphere of influence. This reflects a gradual erosion of the old hierarchical regional order.

Militarily, while India continues to invest heavily in defence capabilities, strategic outcomes have not always aligned with expectations of dominance. Prolonged standoffs along contested borders and the inability to decisively translate military superiority into political leverage have exposed structural limits in its regional posture.

Economically, India’s growth story remains impressive, but it has not yet fully translated into regional economic integration on its own terms. Instead, competing connectivity initiatives — particularly those linked to China’s Belt and Road framework — continue to dilute India’s economic centrality in the neighbourhood.

Diplomatically, India’s ambition to lead the Global South and shape multipolar discourse is also facing nuanced responses. Many countries engage with India, but few are willing to defer to it.

This does not signal a decline of India as a major power. Rather, it reflects a transition from assumed hegemony to contested influence. The regional order is becoming increasingly multipolar, fluid, and transactional.

In this evolving landscape, influence will depend less on historical narratives and more on adaptability, restraint, and genuine regional accommodation. The question, therefore, is not whether India is rising — but whether its regional dominance is being fundamentally redefined.

Pakistan Shouldn't Pass the Cost to Consumers

The prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is exposing vulnerabilities across South Asia. Much of the attention has focused on India because of its heavy dependence on energy imports flowing through the strategic waterway. Rising fuel costs, inflationary pressures and risks to industrial growth are now beginning to emerge. Pakistanis should not avoid viewing this merely as a problem across the border, but take immediate corrective steps. Pakistan's challenge is even more complicated because its economic space for absorbing external shocks is considerably narrower. To read details click https://shkazmipk.com/energy-crisis-in-pakistan-19/

Pakistan Needs Another Resolution

Every year on March 23, Pakistan celebrates the adoption of the Lahore Resolution—the historic declaration that ultimately paved the way for the creation of Pakistan on August 14, 1947. For the Muslims of the subcontinent, the resolution represented far more than a political demand; it embodied the aspiration for sovereignty, dignity, and the right to determine their own future. More than eight decades later, Pakistan commemorates this milestone with pride and patriotic fervor. Yet the realities of the present compel a deeper reflection: does Pakistan today require another national resolve to safeguard its independence and strengthen its future? To read details click https://shkazmipk.com/pakistan-day-resolution/

Pakistan’s Western Front: Security First, Escalation Last

The latest flare-up between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not about ideology, nor about religion. It is about security — plain and simple. For Islamabad, the issue is whether militant groups hostile to Pakistan can operate from across the border with impunity.

Pakistan’s position is rooted in sovereignty. No state can allow armed actors to use neighboring territory as a launching pad for attacks. Islamabad has consistently maintained that elements targeting Pakistan have found operational space inside Afghanistan since the return of the Taliban government in 2021. Kabul rejects this claim, arguing that Pakistan is deflecting from its internal security challenges. This divergence is not new — but it is now sharper and more dangerous.

The recent Pakistani air operations inside Afghan territory must be seen through this security prism. Islamabad describes them as targeted actions against militant infrastructure, not as aggression against the Afghan state. The subsequent retaliation along the border elevated tensions to a level that Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, termed “open war.” That phrase reflects gravity, not intent for prolonged conflict.

The response from the US Department of State — supporting Pakistan’s right to defend itself while expressing concern over casualties — adds geopolitical context but does not define Pakistan’s policy. Islamabad’s western border challenges are indigenous and longstanding. These predate Washington’s statements and will persist independent of them.

Strategically, Pakistan faces a classic security dilemma. If it acts, it risks escalation. If it does not act, it risks emboldening militant actors. Neither option is cost-free. However, sustained instability on the western frontier would divert resources from Pakistan’s primary priority - economic stabilization and internal reform.

It is also important to recognize what this confrontation is not. It is not a war for territory. It is not a regime-change project. And it is not in Pakistan’s interest to see Afghanistan destabilized. A chaotic Afghanistan historically produces security spillovers into Pakistan. Stability in Kabul, therefore, is aligned with Islamabad’s long-term interests — provided that stability does not come at the cost of Pakistani lives.

The way forward demands firmness without adventurism. Pakistan must continue to defend its sovereignty while keeping diplomatic channels functional. Structured border mechanisms, verifiable counterterrorism cooperation, and sustained political engagement are essential.

For Pakistan, the equation is straightforward: security first, escalation last. Strategic maturity lies in deterring threats without sliding into prolonged confrontation. The western border must not become a permanent battleground — it must become a managed frontier built on accountability and realism.

Targeting Pakistan’s Heart: Terror Beyond Sectarian Lines

The latest bomb blast at an Imam Bargah during Friday prayers must not be dismissed as yet another episode of sectarian violence. To frame it that way is misleading—and plays directly into the hands of those who seek to destabilize Pakistan. This was a strategic strike aimed at the state, social cohesion, and economic revival, not a spontaneous sectarian clash.

The choice of location is telling. An attack in or near the federal capital is a deliberate message: those entrusted with national security are being exposed as vulnerable. This is about demonstrating institutional weakness, not simply causing casualties.

Targeting Shias at a place of worship is tactically calculated to manufacture the illusion of sectarian conflict. Pakistan’s Shia and Sunni communities have coexisted for decades. By creating the perception of intra-Muslim hostility, the perpetrators hope to provoke mistrust, social fragmentation, and internal tension—classic tools to weaken a nation from within.

Timing is critical. After prolonged economic strain, Pakistan is showing early signs of recovery—stabilizing markets, cautious investor interest, and renewed trade activity. Terrorism at this juncture is meant to undermine confidence, discourage investment, and stall the revival.

The attack also feeds into the Afghan blame narrative. Linking violence to cross-border militancy or safe havens conveniently shifts attention from the real sponsors, strains Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, and disrupts the flow of Afghan transit trade—a vital lifeline for both economies.

To call this “sectarian killing” is to misdiagnose the problem. The reality is far more calculated: a foreign hand is striking at security credibility, social harmony, regional diplomacy, and economic momentum. The question is not who was killed, but who benefits. And the answer lies far beyond sectarian lines.

Pakistan cannot allow its narrative to be hijacked. Recognizing the true nature of these attacks is the first step toward ensuring that security, economic revival, and regional cooperation are not held hostage by external designs.

Pakistan Economic Turnaround: A Narrative Built on Illusions

Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb’s upbeat portrayal of Pakistan’s economy may sound reassuring to international audiences, but it rests on fragile assumptions and selective facts. The claim that Pakistan has reached a “critical turning point” reflects more narrative management than economic reality.

There is no denying that inflation has eased, foreign exchange reserves have inched upward, and the current account has temporarily moved into surplus. However, these outcomes are not the result of deep structural reform or productivity gains. They are the by-product of harsh demand compression, import suppression, excessive taxation, and reliance on remittances. This is stabilization through pain, not sustainable recovery.

A primary fiscal surplus achieved by slashing development spending and squeezing an already overburdened tax base is hardly a triumph. It signals a state retreating from growth and social investment rather than fixing long-standing inefficiencies. Economic growth of 2.7 percent in a country with one of the fastest-growing populations in the world is not progress—it is stagnation disguised as stability.

The minister’s repeated emphasis on an export-led transition remains largely aspirational. Pakistan’s exports are still narrow, low value, and vulnerable to external shocks. Textiles dominate, agriculture remains inefficient and climate-exposed, and the IT sector faces policy inconsistency and weak infrastructure. Announcing reforms does not equal executing them. Competitiveness is earned through governance, not rhetoric.

Privatization, energy sector restructuring, and tariff liberalization continue to be recycled promises. State-owned enterprises remain a drain on public finances, while circular debt persists as a structural failure. Investors do not respond to interviews and roadmaps; they respond to credible institutions, policy predictability, and contract enforcement—areas where Pakistan remains deficient.

Remittances are hailed as a pillar of stability, yet they highlight a deeper failure - an economy unable to generate opportunities at home. Similarly, foreign reserves covering barely two-and-a-half months of imports offer little protection in an increasingly volatile global environment.

Invoking an “East Asia moment” borders on self-deception. East Asian success was built on disciplined industrial policy, export diversification, human capital investment, and institutional strength—none of which Pakistan has demonstrated at scale. Acknowledging challenges such as population growth, learning poverty, gender exclusion, and climate vulnerability means little without decisive action.

Pakistan’s economy is not transitioning from crisis to opportunity. It is trapped in a cycle of cosmetic stability and structural decay. Until growth becomes productive, inclusive, and job-creating, celebrating macroeconomic indicators is dangerously misleading.

Iranian efforts to improve relations with Afghanistan

Iran will make every effort to give fresh impetus to its interactions with Afghanistan along the border. Masoud Pezeshkian made the comment in a televised address to the people at the close of his trip to the eastern Iranian province of South Khorasan, which borders Afghanistan.

“Many of the needs could be met, and this is possible,” he explained.

He said the provincial governor has been authorized to expedite engagement with neighboring Afghanistan.

Iran’s trade volume with Afghanistan is currently described as decent by economic reports, with Tehran investing significant effort into maintaining commerce since the Afghan government was toppled in 2021. The Taliban, who were ousted by US forces in 2001 and faced a 20-year occupation, swiftly returned to power following the American withdrawal. 

Since then, the new rulers have managed to improve security, with terrorist attacks becoming less frequent. Yet, the country remains burdened by the remnants of the occupation, facing escalating poverty and unemployment.

Although trade continues, Iran has yet to officially recognize the Taliban. Tehran remains at odds with the group over a host of issues, including the withholding of Iran’s water rights from the Hirmand River, the ongoing influx of refugees, and the lack of inclusivity within the new government. Nevertheless, Iranian officials have kept their embassy in Kabul active and continue to engage in regular discussions with Taliban leadership.

Tehran has also been working to establish deeper ties between the Taliban and Afghanistan’s other neighbors, none of whom have officially recognized the group’s government. 

To this end, Iran hosted a meeting in Tehran last week involving representatives from Afghanistan’s neighboring countries and Russia. During the summit, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the significance of stability and security, noting that Afghanistan’s integration into the region would be mutually beneficial. He described Afghanistan as possessing unique human, economic, and natural potential, historically serving as a bridge between neighboring regions.

Afghanistan’s relationship under the Taliban has been specially friction-ridden with Pakistan. The two countries engaged in a brief military conflict earlier this year; while a ceasefire is currently in effect, it is widely considered to be fragile.

 

Pakistan must add Gold Backed Funds

Pakistan’s financial regulators often speak of diversification, innovation, and deepening of markets — yet these ambitions rarely translate into actionable reforms. One opportunity stands out, both practical and low-risk, and yet remains untouched - the introduction of gold-backed funds. With the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) holding nearly 50 tons of gold in its reserves, the country is well-positioned to convert a fraction of its dormant assets into market-enabling financial instruments.

Global central banks have already moved in this direction. In dozens of jurisdictions, gold is no longer treated as a static reserve item but as a strategic financial asset supporting exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and structured investment products. Pakistan, in contrast, keeps its bullion locked away — valuable, but economically inactive. This conservative mindset needs a calibrated rethink.

The proposal is simple and regulator-friendly. State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) should release 100 kilograms of gold through the Pakistan Mercantile Exchange (PMEX), specifically targeting the creation of gold-backed ETFs. The quantity is symbolic when compared to total reserves; it carries no threat to reserve adequacy. But its impact on market depth, investor confidence, and product diversity would be significant. SBP-verified bullion sold through PMEX would enhance transparency, improve price discovery, and finally allow Pakistan to list a credible gold-backed fund in its financial ecosystem.

Once the ETF market is seeded, SBP should gradually import around 150 kilograms of gold, timed with favorable global prices. This ensures reserves are not only restored but increased, allowing for future expansion of gold-based investment products. The goal is to create a sustainable, market-driven cycle — not a one-off intervention.

For regulators, the benefits are clear. Gold-backed funds broaden the investment menu in a market dominated by government securities. They attract new investor segments, document savings that would otherwise sit in unreported physical gold, and add liquidity to PMEX. More importantly, they align Pakistan with global best practices, where commodity-based financial products are now standard tools for stabilizing markets.

The concern that releasing central-bank gold might destabilize reserves is misplaced. A 100-kilogram sale out of a 50-ton stock is hardly a depletion; it is prudent activation of an underutilized asset. Paired with a planned replenishment strategy, the initiative strengthens rather than weakens Pakistan’s reserve position.

Pakistan’s financial system suffers from chronic concentration, limited innovation, and excessive reliance on debt instruments. Gold-backed funds offer a low-risk, high-credibility avenue for reform — one that regulators can implement without disrupting monetary policy or fiscal planning.

It is time to stop treating gold as an untouchable relic of reserve management. If Pakistan truly wants deeper, more diversified capital markets, then adding gold-backed funds is no longer optional — it is need of the time.

 

Pakistan Plunging Deeper into Debt Trap

If 2025 has revealed anything, it is the alarming disconnect between Pakistan’s economic reality and the self-congratulatory narratives pushed by its policymakers.

The year has passed without a single meaningful breakthrough—no new productive units, no serious investment in balancing, modernization or replacement (BMR), and no expansion in industrial capacity. The economy is drifting, yet those responsible for steering it remain disturbingly complacent.

The import bill tells a story of its own. A 15 percent surge in imports exposes how deeply dependent the country has become on everything from basic raw materials to high-end consumer goods. Simultaneously, a 5 percent decline in exports reflects both declining competitiveness and an industrial sector gasping for breath. This is not a temporary imbalance; it is a structural failure in the making, now accelerating under an administration that mistakes cosmetic measures for policy.

Instead of responding with urgency, Pakistan’s economic managers have taken refuge in denial. They continue celebrating short-term dollar inflows as if these lifelines represent real progress. Their strategy—if it can be called one—rests entirely on IMF bailouts, emergency loans from friendly countries, and repeated rollovers of past obligations. This is not economic management; it is firefighting with borrowed water.

Worst of all, there is no sign of strategic thinking. No national plan for industrial revival, no push for technological upgrading, no attempt to diversify exports, and no investment in productivity. The economy is being held together by ad hoc decisions, political gimmicks, and a misplaced belief that stabilization alone can substitute for growth.

Pakistan is not suffering from a lack of options; it is suffering from a lack of seriousness. Nations facing crises reform their energy sectors, modernize their agriculture, incentivize manufacturing, and push for export-oriented growth. Pakistan, by contrast, has spent 2025 celebrating marginal improvements while ignoring the collapse taking place beneath the surface.

With rising imports, shrinking exports, stagnant industries and policymakers lost in complacency, the direction is painfully clear, Pakistan economy is plunging deeper into debt trap.

Can Iran Revive a Dormant ECO?

Iran’s renewed diplomatic activity suggests a determined effort to resuscitate the long-underperforming Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO). The arrival of Iranian Minister for Industry, Mining and Trade, Seyed Mohammad Atabak in Istanbul—where ECO ministers gathered at this level for the first time in two decades—reflects a deliberate push by Tehran to reposition the bloc as a relevant regional economic platform. For Iran, this moment is less about protocol and more about strategic necessity.

At the heart of the Istanbul discussions is a long-awaited effort to revisit trade agreements, especially tariff reductions aimed at boosting intra-ECO commerce. For Iran, which has endured years of Western sanctions and now sees minimal prospects for diplomatic relief, regional economic arrangements have become a priority. The US-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure earlier this year further hardened Tehran’s conviction that Western partners cannot be relied upon for economic stability.

The second Iran-ECO Conference held in Tehran in September clearly signaled Iran’s aspirations. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi openly stated that the current level of ECO cooperation “does not match the enormous capacities” of its member states. His remarks were not diplomatic rhetoric— but a candid assessment of a bloc that has failed to convert geography into economic strength. Stretching across South, Central, and West Asia, ECO should have been a natural trade corridor. Instead, it has remained largely dormant.

This renewed push comes amid a shifting global economic order. As economist Majid Shakeri points out, the US — once the world’s “demander of last resort”—no longer plays its traditional role. Washington’s declining appetite for foreign goods and its reliance on punitive tariffs have weakened the post-WWII economic framework. For ECO members, this creates both a void and an opportunity: if global structures are eroding, regional alliances must step in.

Iran seems ready to do the heavy lifting. By pushing for tariff reforms, expanded connectivity, and practical cooperation, Tehran aims to keep ECO from fading into geopolitical irrelevance. Whether the other member states share the same urgency remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: Iran is positioning itself as the driving force behind ECO’s overdue revival.

Pakistan Still Remains Afghanistan’s Most Practical Trade Corridor

Regional connectivity has become one of the most contested conversations in South Asia, with every major player seeking influence through trade routes, port access and infrastructure diplomacy. Amid these competing narratives, one reality often gets overlooked - when it comes to Afghanistan’s transit needs, Pakistan continues to offer the most practical, cost-efficient and geographically logical route. This is not a political claim — it is a commercial and logistical fact shaped by geography, infrastructure and decades of established trade flows.

Pakistan’s strategic location provides Afghanistan with the shortest and most direct access to the sea. For more than forty years, the Karachi–Torkham and Karachi–Chaman corridors have served as the main arteries linking Afghan traders to global markets. These routes are supported by a fully developed logistics ecosystem that includes deep-sea ports, highways, customs facilities, warehousing chains and thousands of transport operators who understand the specific dynamics of cross-border trade. This maturity reduces time, cost and uncertainty — three critical factors for a landlocked economy.

Alternatives exist, but none match Pakistan’s combination of scale and efficiency. Iran’s Bandar Abbas route is functional but burdened by longer distances, higher freight costs and the unpredictability of sanctions. The much-publicized Chabahar corridor, backed by India, remains more of a political project than a commercially competitive pathway; its capacities and market traction are still limited. Northern routes through Central Asia involve multiple border crossings, harsh climatic conditions and infrastructure gaps that add both cost and delay.

Afghanistan may wish to diversify its transit options — a reasonable aspiration for any landlocked nation. However, diversification should not be conflated with cost effectiveness. Geography remains the defining factor. Pakistan’s ports are closest, its transit infrastructure is the most established, and its logistics sector is already aligned with Afghan commercial patterns.

Despite shifting regional politics and the emergence of competing narratives, Pakistan retains a natural advantage that no alternative route has yet been able to match. It remains Afghanistan’s most practical, cost-efficient and reliable corridor to the world — a fact that regional policymakers should recognize as they debate connectivity, competition and the future of trade in South Asia.

 

Indian Search for an Afghanistan Corridor—Bypassing Pakistan

For decades, India’s access to Afghanistan has been shaped—more accurately, restricted—by geography and politics. A quick look at the regional map explains the dilemma, India shares no border with Afghanistan, and the only direct land pathway runs through Pakistan. But with Islamabad refusing transit to Indian goods, New Delhi has to explore alternative corridors. Over time, these alternatives have evolved from theoretical proposals into functioning routes that reduce Pakistan’s leverage and expand India’s strategic reach. To read details click https://shkazmipk.com/india-afghanistan-trade/

Pakistan Governance Crisis: IMF Has Only Stated the Obvious

The IMF’s Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment is not a revelation; it is a mirror Pakistan’s ruling elites have avoided for decades. What the report exposes — institutional decay, unchecked discretion, opaque decision-making, and a culture of privilege — is neither new nor surprising. What is alarming is that Pakistan still requires an external lender to tell it what its own citizens have been shouting for years: corruption is not an aberration but the organizing principle of governance in this country.

The IMF’s findings cut through the official narratives of “reform”, “revival”, and “investment climate improvement”. At the heart of Pakistan’s economic paralysis lies a state captured by networks of political, bureaucratic, and business interests that thrive on informality and opacity. The tax system remains deliberately complex to create rent-seeking opportunities. SOEs continue bleeding because political appointees treat them as fiefdoms. The judiciary — hobbled by colonial-era laws — cannot enforce contracts, discouraging both investment and fair competition. And the powerful remain insulated from accountability through special exemptions, selective transparency, and politically driven discretion.

The IMF’s pointed reference to the Special Investment Facilitation Council is especially damning. By questioning its opaque functioning and the immunity granted to its officials, the report exposes the contradiction at the heart of Pakistan’s economic strategy: demanding investor confidence while institutionalizing unaccountable power. If the government had confidence in its own governance architecture, it would not have delayed publication of the report for months.

The Fund’s proposed reform agenda — transparency, parliamentary oversight of financial discretion, mandatory e-procurement, restructuring of anti-corruption bodies, and removal of preferential treatment — is basic housekeeping for any functioning state. Yet in Pakistan, these measures appear radical only because they directly threaten entrenched interests.

The tragedy is that Pakistan does not suffer from a lack of diagnosis; it suffers from a lack of will. Every governance failure highlighted in the GCDA has been documented for years, yet every government has chosen to preserve privilege over reform. The IMF can nudge, advise, and pressure — but it cannot manufacture political courage.

Pakistan’s elites may believe they can continue business as usual. The economy says otherwise. Time for denial is over.