PSX average daily volume up 23.8%WoW

Bullish momentum persisted through the first four days of the week, as the KSE-100 index reached its highest-ever closing of 80,283 points on Thursday. Overall, the benchmark index closed at 80,213 on last trading day on the week ended on July 07, 2024, with a gain of 1,767 points, up 2.25%WoW.

With an overall positive market landscape, participation also increased with the average daily traded volume rising to 440 million shares as compared to 355 million shares a week ago, up 23.8%WoW.

The finance minister confirmed positive progress in talks with the IMF, the lending authority appraising of the announced changes in electricity and gas tariffs effective July 01, 2024, with the likelihood of a staff level agreement (SLA) within this month.

On the inflation front, CPI for June 2024 was reported at 12.57%YoY, in-line with the consensus. Meanwhile, trade deficit for June was reported at US$2.39bn, taking FY24 deficit to US$24.09 billion, down by 12%YoY.

On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose by US$494 million on a weekly basis to US$9.39 billion.

Finally, the domestic currency slightly weakened against the greenback, ending the week at PKR278.38/US$ (down 0.01%WoW).

Pakistan’s Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded their highest sales in 19 months, reaching 1.45 million tons in June 2024. Domestic cement sales fell 4.6% to 38.18 million tons in FY24.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) GoP decided to shut down Pakistan Steel Mills, 2) Cabinet approved PKR5.72/unit hike in Nepra base tariff, 3) Pak-Afghan rulers reestablish contact for talks and 4) Power minister promised tariff relief.

Top performing sectors were INV. Banks / INV. COS./ Securities Cos, Leasing Companies, Exchange Traded Fund, Jute and Commercial Banks, while Synthetic & Rayon, Woollen, Close-end Mutual fund, Tobacco, and Textile Composite were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$13.65 million. Foreigners absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$7.69 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: AKBL, NBP, PSX, BOP and PGLC, while laggards included: IBFL, THALL, PAKT, HGFA and FCEPL.

According to AKD Securities, market is expected to return its focus to negotiations with the IMF, to be a key market trigger in the near term.

The rally is expected to continue amidst the market's attractive valuations, with the forward P/E continuing to remain below 4.0x. At these levels, the brokerage house anticipate that sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms will remain prominent.

Its top picks include OGDC, PPL, MARI, MCB, UBL, MEBL, HUBC, FFC, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

Voting inherent right of overseas Pakistanis

Ironically the successive governments in Pakistan have been denying the voting rights to overseas Pakistani. They are considered less patriotic because they bid farewell to their homeland to lead a better life.

This is spreading disinformation because: 1) they were denied better remuneration and 2) the law and order situation has been getting from bad to worse.

Today, I want to let every Pakistani know that overseas Pakistanis are the real saviors. At an average the country has been receiving around US$1.2 billion from the IMF and the amount has to be repaid, as against this overseas Pakistanis have been remitting more than US$24 billion per annum.

According to the latest information released by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) during February 2024 overseas Pakistanis have remitted US$2.2 billion. 

Regretfully the SBP press release highlighted “During February 24, remittances decreased by 6.2%MoM but reluctantly admitted 13%YoY increase.

Their contribution demands highest recognition as they remitted over US$18 billion during the first eight months of the current financial year (FY24).

Remittances inflows during February 24 mainly came from Saudi Arabia (US$539.8 million), United Arab Emirates (US$384.7 million), United Kingdom (US$346.0 million) and United States (US$287.4 million).

Since inflow of every US$ is important for Pakistan, the newly elected government must announce an incentive package for the overseas Pakistani. Top the list item should be giving them voting time. The government has 5 years to put the required infrastructure in place. This can’t be done without changing the mind set of policy planners.  

Pakistan: Interim setup likely to remain in place a little longer

Over the months I have been saying that current account deficit and budget deficit are the outcome of “Confidence Deficit”. However, the team headed by Shehbaz Sharif, spent most of the time talking about non-issues.

Please allow me to say that Pakistanis were ready to bear the brunt, but unwillingness of the ruling junta to cut contain its extravaganzas, created rebellious attitude. Now, top of the agenda items should be bridging the confidence deficit, curtailing extravaganzas, facilitating the local manufacturers and exporters.

The economic managers must stop saying “these are the conditions of IMF” and come up with a home grown plan. Restoring the competitiveness of the local manufactures can not only help in boosting exports but containing inflation and generating new employment and taxes.

It is encouraging that the Caretaker Prime Minister, Anwaarul Haq Kakar, has assembled a small cabinet comprising of 24-members, which sworn in on Thursday. This can also be termed the implementation of a technocratic framework. One has all the reasons to believe that the setup has been put in place to serve the country beyond 90 days due to the potential delay in holding scheduled elections.

This extended period presents a unique opportunity to the caretaker government to spearhead essential economic reforms. Unburdened by political considerations, they can make tough but necessary decisions to jumpstart the economy. Notably, the caretaker setup comprises of accomplished professionals, particularly in key ministries such as Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Power. This strategic placement underscores their significance in the forthcoming period.

The Prime Minister's unwavering commitment to address pressing economic concerns is evident in his swift actions. His decision to transfer DISCOs (Distribution Companies) to provincial authorities, his efforts to attract investments through the SIFC, and the prompt convening of the inaugural cabinet meeting on Friday, all reflect the priority he places on resolving these issues.

 

 

Focus on agriculture can pull Pakistan out of current economic malice

At present Pakistan faces myriad of problems, from rising food import bill to very limited availability of foreign exchange. While the industrial sector remains import dependent, focus on two of the large scale industries i.e. textiles and clothing and sugar and allied can yield multiple benefits: from huge earning of foreign exchange to creating extensive employment for low-skill workers. However, this requires commitment of the government, introduction of supporting policies and implementation of these policies in letter and spirit.

It is on record that 20% to 40% of agriculture produce goes stale before reaching the market. This on one hand deprives the farmers from modest return of their efforts and on the other hand creates shortages and use of paltry foreign exchange available to Pakistan. It is pertinent to point out that the Government of Pakistan (GoP) had come up with Warehouse Receipt Financing (WRF) program as back as in 2013. The lack of commitment on the part of the GoP as well as the financial institutions has failed in facilitating construction of modern grain storage silos in the country.

Over the years the GoP has been increasing quantum of lending to farmers and the indicative target for the current financial year is PKR1.8 trillion. The lending is being done under two heads: for the purchase of inputs and for the development. The most shocking part is that some of the financial institutions prefer to pay the penalty, rather than extending credit to farmers. This has resulted in exclusion of small farmers from the formal banking system.

Financial institutions have been lending to farmers against ownership documents of their land. Despite multiple land reforms, bulk of the land is still owned by the feudal lords. Small land holders or those who have no land ownership documents have remained out of the formal banking system. WRF system was conceived as an alternative system for financial inclusion. Under this scheme farmers could use their produce as collateral and secure funds from the financial institution.

If the GoP is serious it has to take on board State Bank of Pakistan, Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan, commercial banks and Naymat Collateral Management Company to undertake construction of grain storage silos on war footings.

The most disappoint fact is that the country produces over 25 million tons wheat, the federal and provincial governments are the major buyers but virtually no wheat storage silos are present. Bulk of the produce is kept in warehouses not fit for the storage of staple food grain. The result is over 20% of the produce goes stale before reaching the market.

I was amazed to hear from some religious clerics that construction and management of warehouses is not Shariah compliant, the basic objection is it facilitates hording. They are unable in distinguishing between ‘safekeeping’ and ‘hording’.

Pakistan earns bulk of its foreign exchange from export of textiles and clothing. Without any exaggeration the country is capable of producing 20 million bales of medium staple fiber. However over the last few years cotton production has reduced to around 6 million bales. An output of 10 million bales can be attained by: using certified quality seed, stopping cultivation of sugarcane in sugar belt and using certified quality of pesticides/insecticides. This would also help in boosting production of ‘cotton seed oil’ – an edible oil as well as oilcakes for feeding cows and buffaloes.

The third important crop is sugarcane which not only produces sugar but also exports ethanol and molasses in huge quantities. Cultivation of superior quality sugarcane varieties can help in boosting production of sugar, molasses and ethanol.

It is necessary to remind the policy planners, if they still don’t know, that ethanol is used for the production of bio-fuels. At one time the GoP had started sale of E-10 - petrol containing 10% ethanol. Only the policy planners know why this project was abandoned?

Maize is yet another crop that can help in containing food import bill. Maize yields oil, flour and oilcake (used in the production of chicken feed). Now cultivation of two crops is a norm and in certain areas third crop is cultivated.

It may be pertinent to mention that maize yield in Pakistan is substantially low and the prime reason is high price of DAP fertilizer.

This takes to another key industry, fertilizer industry. Over the years the industry has help in saving precious foreign exchange. Now it has the capacity to export one million tons of urea. At times the country has to import urea, which is due to the bad policy of stopping gas supply to fertilizer plants during winter.

The GoP must also facilitate running of power plants on furnace oil. The plea taken by the GoP for not running power plants on furnace oil is most absurd – it contains high percentage of sulphur. The GoP must immediately arrange fund for installing sulphur at local refineries. It would yield two benefits: use of furnace in local power plants as well as its export - extra foreign exchange will be earned from the export of sulphur.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistan: Ruling junta seems least concerned about FY24 Federal Budget

Today is May 17, 2023 and the Federal Budget for next Financial Year (FY24) is scheduled to be announced on June 02, 2023. I hardly see any debate in the print or electronic media on the likely facets of the Budget.

The growing concern among the analysts is that the incumbent government will accept all the conceivable conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to get the withheld tranche released, amounting to roughly one billion US dollar.

The analysts have this perception based on the fact that meeting the IMF conditions will be the headache of next elected government.

They also have the consensus that in the next budget the existing tax rates will be increased and new taxes will be introduced. On top of that super tax will also be introduced.

Along with this, subsidies will be withdrawn, levies applicable on energy products will be increased.

The government will not be able to boost exports or contain imports.

The quantum of informal import ill increase.

The quantum of PSDP will also be reduced.

The bottom line is, GDP growth will remain below one percent or negative.

The most alarming point is that the government will not be able to offer any income support program, poor will get poorer and rich will get richer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange: Investors remain on sidelines

During the week ended on October 21, 2022, the focus of investors remained on the current account position, besides the upcoming FATF plenary. The benchmark index remained flat and closed at 42,213 points, up 0.6%WoW. The average volume for the index continued downward trajectory, dropping to 228 million shares down 14.4%WoW.

Major news flows during the week included: 1) Q1FY23 Current Account deficit down by 37%YoY, 2) Trade deficit shrinks by 30.2%YoY in September, 3) Gas sector circular debt bloats to Rs1.5 trillion, 4) Pakistan receives only US$88 million assistance against US$816 million flash appeal, 5) Pakistan seeks rescheduling of US$27 billion debt and vi) country’s foreign exchange reserves inches up to US$13.250 billion.

The top performing sectors were: Tobacco, Close-end Mutual funds, Synthetic & Rayon, Modarabas and Power Generation & Distribution, while the least favorite sectors were: Woolen, Textile Weaving, Sugar & Allied Industries, Oil & Gas Marketing and Automobile Parts & Accessories.

The top performing scrips in the KSE-100 were: PAKT, HGFA, PGLC, SNGP and AKBL, while laggards included: BNWM, SHEL, HCAR, NRL and SRVI.

Foreigners emerged the biggest sellers, offloading US$3.4 million followed by Banks & DFI (US$1.5 million), Mutual funds (US$1.3 million), Companies (US$0.4 million) and Other Organizations (US$0.2 million). While Individuals, Brokers and Insurance Companies were on the buying side, with a net buy of US$5.4 million, US$0.9 million and US$0.6 million respectively.

Amid the volatile local political situation, the name of the game is waiting and seeing. If the political turmoil dampens, some may view it as a bull-trigger for the market, while the potential of anarchy may keep some away. Moreover, with the outcome of the FATF plenary scheduled to be announced on Friday night, the result will boost/suppress the market.

It is likely that the country will be removed from the grey list of the global money laundering and terrorism financing watchdog, which will in turn increase the flows of foreign funding into the equity market.

The PKR continued its decline which started last week and lost 1.1%WoW owing to the speculation regarding changes in the Finance Ministry. Keeping in view the uncertainty, near-term outlook for the equity market remains hazy as both bear and bull-run triggers loom overhead.

Coalition government headed by Shehbaz Sharif in Pakistan faces daunting challenges

Newly installed government in Pakistan headed by Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif is facing the daunting task of managing a faltering economy with huge deficits. 

Shehbaz, 70, the younger brother of former premier Nawaz Sharif, was elected as prime minister on Monday followed by a week-long constitutional crisis after parliament ousted Imran Khan in a no-confidence vote.

“Imran Khan has left a critical mess,” Miftah Ismail, who is likely to be Sharif’s Finance Minister, told a news conference in Islamabad, adding the suspended talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be resumed on priority.

“We will restart talks with the IMF,” he said.

Ismail repeated Sharif’s concerns raised in his maiden speech in parliament at what he described as record deficits his government will inherit from Khan, who was accused by the opposition of mismanaging the economy.

Sharif set up a National Economic Advisory Council in his first meeting on Tuesday.

The IMF had suspended talks ahead of the seventh review of a US$6 billion rescue programme agreed in July 2019.

Pakistan’s current account deficit is projected at around 4% of GDP for the current fiscal year (FY22), the country’s central bank said last week. The foreign exchange reserves held by Pakistan dropped to US$11.3 billion as on April 01, 2022 as compared with $16.2 billion less than a month earlier.

The central bank last week hiked key interest rates by 250 basis points to 12.25% in an emergency decision, the biggest hike in decades, citing deterioration in the outlook for inflation and an increase in risks to external stability, heightened by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as local political uncertainty.

The bank also revised average inflation forecasts upwards to slightly above 11% in FY22, ending June 30, 2022.

Dawn, leading English newspaper of Pakistan in its Editorial on April 12, 2022 has highlighted that Shehbaz Sharif has inherited some daunting challenges. These include, but are not limited to, a worsening economic crisis, growing political turmoil, deteriorating relations with the Western powers, and the resurgence of militancy in some parts of the country.

The Editorial says, “We have no idea whether the ruling coalition that consists of disparate parties and groups, with often conflicting political and economic aims, will stick together until the elections are called. They may have achieved their common goal of ousting Imran Khan from power, but facets of their long-term plan are still to be revealed.”

“With the PTI quitting the National Assembly and pledging to build up strong public pressure on its successors for early elections in the country, it will not be all smooth sailing for the new administration.”

It continued, “Fixing the broken economy is probably the most formidable challenge facing Sharif’s cabinet, and he should place it on top of his agenda. The PTI had inherited a bad economy that it has left in far worse condition; ordinary people are grappling with elevated double-digit inflation, as well as wage and job losses, as macroeconomic indicators decline.”

“The crisis of balance of payments is already back, after a short Covid-related respite, as much-needed multilateral assistance is on hold because of uncertain political conditions in the country. Elevated international commodity prices, particularly food and crude oil, are putting additional pressure on a frail external sector.”

Improving the economy requires tough decisions, such as the immediate removal of the cap on electricity and petroleum prices and renegotiating a new loan with the IMF, which will be hard, if not impossible, without repairing diplomatic relations with the United States and other Western powers.

The biggest question is, can the ruling coalition take these politically unpopular but vital decisions?

New elections are not very far off, and Imran Khan’s PTI will be scrutinising and criticising every move of the new set-up. The populist announcements, like the 10pc raise in pay and pension of government employees and the provision of subsidised wheat flour, made by Shehbaz Sharif in his speech in the House, soon after his election as prime minister, are indicative of the extreme pressure he must be feeling.

With forbidding political and economic realities on one side and high public expectations on the other, the coalition government and its leader do not have too many options on the table as they get ready to deal with multiple crises, at least not at the moment.

The enormity of the economic and foreign policy challenges demands a strong government, which is not encumbered by uncertainty over its future and has the public mandate to take tough and unpopular decisions. The wiser course would be to reform the electoral laws and move towards new elections at the earliest.

Pakistan Stock Market Comes Under Extensive Pressure

After starting the week on a shaky foot, market remained volatile as investors preferred realizing profits due to uncertainty around Panama hearing, law and order concerns and stories about unethical conduct of some of the brokers. During the week ended on 24th February, the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed almost flat at 49,008 levels. Average daily trading volume at the bourse tapered to 322 million shares, down by 11.6%WoW. Foreign flows also declined with net outflows for the week rising to US$4.8 million as compared to inflow of US$4.2 million a week ago. Major news flows during the week included: 1) current account deficit for January’17 rose by 16%YoY to US$1.19 billion taking 7MFY17 cumulative deficit to US$4.71 billion, up 90%YoY, 2) GoP raised Rs59.7 billion through PIB auction with banks’ biding for Rs115.2 billion but cut off yields remained largely flat, 3) National Assembly Standing Committee was informed that the GoP is considering a subsidy package for farmers in the FY18 Budget, 4) Chairman of the PSX’s Divestment Committee stated that the exchange would be listed through an IPO by the end of June this year, 5) PSMC announced expansion plans for producing 100,000 units, with total planned outlay of US$460 million and 6) KPMG Taseer Hadi – Independent Consultants for SNGPL and SSGC – released their report suggesting UFG benchmarks for the utilities at 5%. Top performers at the bourse were: HMB, MTL, PIOC and SSGC, whereas laggards included: HASCOL, DAWH, AGTL, and ASTL. As the result season approaches its end, the market is likely to retain focus on developments around Panama‐gate case. Uncertainty around the time frame for the announcement of the decision can keep investors on edge, inducing greater volatility in the market. Additionally, February’17 CPI inflation to be announced next week is expected to be higher than last month and will help to firm expectations of a higher interest rate trajectory going forward.

External trade trend witnessed improvement during January'17 with exports rising to US$1.78 billion (up 3.0%MoM/0.7%YoY), marking reversal from the consistent monthly downward trend seen this year. Textile sector, which constitutes more than 60% of country's exports picked some pace and rose by 2.7%MoM to US$1.06 billion during the period under review driven by broad‐based recovery in both low value (+7.8%MoM) and value‐added segments (+1.0%MoM). However, on a cumulative basis, 7MFY17 textile exports are still 1.5%YoY lower as compared to that of US$7.23 billion for the corresponding period last year. Going forward, analyst at AKD Securities expects textile exports to largely remain under pressure due to: 1) demand side bottlenecks with weak Chinese demand outlook and concerns of an economic slowdown in the EU following Brexit and 2) lower currency competitiveness amid sharp depreciation in regional currencies against US$. That said, the recently announced export incentive package worth Rs180 billion with the textile sector having the lion's share is expected to enhance export competitiveness over regional countries remains a key near‐term trigger for the sector. Moreover, encouraging cotton arrivals to date (up 10.63%YoY) to 10.634 million bales) is expected to reduce cotton shortfall this year.

Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) during 1HFY17 grew by 3.90%YoY buoyed by a jump in December'16 by 7.04%YoY on seasonal trends. However, this remained slightly lower as compared to 1HFY16 owing to slower than earlier growth in the Auto sector. However, recovery in the Food sector lent support to the LSM index. While some upwards push is expected in the coming months on periodical trends, analyst expects the trend to normalize over FY17. However, ongoing expansion plans can lift the index higher than previous year. This remains inadequate for achieving FY17 GDP target of 5.7%.

Pressures on rupee seems more imminent due to 7.3%MoM increase in trade deficit emanating from a 6%MoM decline in remittance inflows during January’17. Consequently, analysts expect sharper deterioration with CAD rounding off at 1.85% of GDP in FY17 on rising trade deficit and declining remittance. This adds to already worsening foreign exchange reserve position as foreign debt flows (net of repayments) in 7MFY17 at US1 billion have been lower than US$1.3 billion in the corresponding period. Resultantly, import cover on SBP held reserves now stands at 4.6 month compared to 5.4 month at end FY16.