PSX remains under pressure

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced volatility early in the week but gained momentum with the benchmark index closing at 114,398 points on Friday, March 07, 2025, posting a gain of 1.01%WoW.

Inflation for February 2025, clocked in at 1.52%YoY, the lowest in 9 years, sparking investor optimism and fueling expectations of a potential rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for March 10, 2025.

Alongside reports about the government's efforts to eliminate circular debt in the power sector by borrowing PKR1.25 trillion from commercial banks at an interest rate of 10.8%.

The rally in Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Cement and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors was recorded.

Trade deficit for February clocked in at US$2.3 billion, up 33%YoY, due to 10%YoY increase in imports to US$4.7 billion.

OMC offtake was recorded at 1.136 million tons, up 2%YoY.

Market participation decreased due to Ramadan, with the average daily traded volume recorded at 290.33 million share as against 474.90 million shares in the earlier week, down 38.9%WoW.

PKR largely remained flat against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) IMF may allow cut in FBR target below PkR12.5 trillion, 2) Cement dispatches post double-digit growth for second consecutive month, 3) FBR proposes reduction in tax rates for Beverages, tobacco and real estate sector, and 4) Public debt rose to PKR72.1 trillion.

Glass & Ceramics, Oil & Gas Marketing Companies, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Chemical and Mutual Funds were amongst the top performing sectors, while Leasing Companies, Inv. Banks/ Inv. Cos/ Securities Cos, Transport, Sugar & Allied Products and Automobile Assembler were amongst the worst performers.

Major selling was recorded by Individuals with a net sell of US$6.18 million. Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$4.22 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: GHGL, TGL, FCCL, SNGP, and PSO, while laggards included: MEHT, PGLC, ENGROH, JDWS, and MUREB.

According to AKD Securities, market is expected to maintain its positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

With easing inflation, the upcoming MPC meeting will remain a key focus. Over the medium term, the benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of Fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of Banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.