Friday, 10 October 2025
PSX benchmark index declines 3.49%WoW
Tuesday, 30 September 2025
Can Pakistan’s Stock Market Euphoria Last?
Several factors support the bulls. The State Bank’s shift
toward monetary easing has reduced borrowing costs, drawing investors away from
fixed income and into equities. Lower interest rates traditionally inflate
valuations, and Pakistan is no exception. Add to this the IMF’s continued
engagement and incremental fiscal discipline, and the picture looks markedly
better than just two years ago when fears of default loomed large.
International credit agencies have upgraded Pakistan’s outlook, further feeding
optimism.
Sectors like banking, energy, and cement — heavyweights in
the index — have reported improved earnings, lending substance to the rally.
Market psychology is also playing its part; momentum has a way of sustaining
itself, as more investors join in, driven by fear of missing out.
But euphoria has a habit of blinding participants to lurking
dangers. Pakistan’s political fragility remains the most potent risk. A sudden
shift in the governing coalition, renewed street agitation, or policy U-turns
could shake investor confidence overnight. Likewise, the country’s external
account remains precarious; a spike in oil prices or weakening of the rupee
could unravel the fragile stability. Inflation, though easing, is hardly
conquered, and any resurgence would force the central bank back into tightening
mode.
Overvaluation is another trap. After such a steep run, some
stocks now trade at stretched multiples. Unless earnings growth matches
expectations, disappointment could trigger a sell-off. And with global
financial markets on edge over interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical
flare-ups, Pakistan is hardly insulated from external shocks.
Friday, 26 September 2025
PSX benchmark index closes at yet another record high
Bullish sentiments were supported by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s successful meetings with US President Trump on Thursday, and the signing of long-awaited PKR1.2 trillion debt arrangement with banks to retire power sector circular debt.
Consequently, E&Ps and Power sector scrips remained highest index contributors, along with Commercial Banks. Moreover, Pakistan is expecting a delegation of Saudi businesses to explore bilateral trade opportunities following the recent strategic defense agreement.
The said positives boosted investors’ confidence, driving weekly market participation to an all-time high, with average daily traded volume increasing by 20%WoW to 2.2 billion shares.
Fertilizer sales surged in August 2025, with urea and DAP offtakes rising 46%YoY and 53%YoY, respectively, supported by discount offerings and lower inventories.
Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$22 million to US$14.4 billion as of September 19, 2025. PKR appreciated by 0.03%YoY to close at PKR281.37 to a US dollar.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF presses Pakistan on missed tax targets, 2) Power tariffs set for 10% cut after PKR1.225 trillion debt repayment, 3) Japan intends to invest in Reko Diq project, 4) Unilateral tariff concessions on 700 items sought from China, and 5) FBR chief says no proposal for mini-budget.
Power generation, E&P, and Pharmaceutical were amongst the top performing sectors, while Woollen, Leasing companies, and textile spinning were the laggards.
Major selling was visible from Bank and Foreigners with net sell of US$29.5 million. Mutual funds and Individuals emerged net buyer with net buy of US$42.3 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were, KEL, BWCL, HUBC, DGKC, and MARI, while laggards included: TGL, EPCL, POML, PKGP, and BNWM.
According to AKD Securities, PSX is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with the upcoming IMF review remaining in the limelight.
The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, with a target of 165,215 points by end December 2025, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability. The top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MCB, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, INDU, ILP, and SYS.
Thursday, 5 June 2025
PSX benchmark index up 1.6%WoW
This optimism was reflected by the benchmark Index surging
by 1,950 points or 1.6%WoW to close the week at 121,641 points on Thursday, the
last trading day before commencement of Eid-ul Adha holidays.
Market participation was lean as average daily trading declined
to 660 million, down from 662 million shares a week ago.
Overall, opinion on the street remains that a stable fiscal
environment to continue, with no significant shift in existing tax structures
for individuals and businesses alike in the forthcoming Federal Budget (FY26).
On the macroeconomic front, trade deficit was reported at
US$2.6 billion for May 2025.
Cement saless for May 2025 were reported at 4.65 million
tons, up 9%YoY, driven by higher domestic offtakes. Analysts project domestic
cement sales to grow by 6%YoY in FY26, mainly due to the revival in
construction activity supported by a declining interest rate and lower inflationary
environment.
OMC industry sales remained on upward trajectory, rising to
1.53 million tons, up 10%YoY.
PKR remained under pressure, depreciated by 0.05%WoW against
the greenback.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistani
officials scheduled to meet US authorities next week for the trade talks, 2)
IMF and Pakistan arrived near consensus on cut in tax rates for salaried class,
3) suggestion to hike interest rate by 2% on income from bank deposits, 4) GoP
eyes 4.2%YoY growth in FY26 and 5) ADB approves US$800 million to boost
Pakistan’s public finance.
Power Generation & Distribution, Textile Weaving,
Modarbas, Leasing Companies and Inv.Banks/ Inv.cos/ Securities.cos were amongst
the top performing sectors, while Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Synthetic
Rayon, Transport, Cable & Electrical Goods and Paper & Board were
amongst the laggards.
Major selling was recorded by Foreigners and Mutual funds
with a net sell of US$26.01 million, Companies absorbed most of the selling
with a net buy of US$8.6 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: PKGP, FABL, NATF,
NBP and KEL, while top laggards included: POML, IBFL, SYS, APL and KTML.
According to AKD Securities, budget-related developments are
expected to drive short-term market sentiment, with the possibility of
single-digit interest rates contributing to a positive outlook over time, as
its forecast for FY26 inflation stands at 7.0%.
The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward
trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs
in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from
falling interest rates and economic stability.
Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO,
FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.
Friday, 23 May 2025
PSX benchmark index declines by 0.5%WoW
Market participation also weakened, with average daily
traded volumes falling by 25%WoW to 492 million shares, down from 660 million
shares a week ago.
As regards FY26 Federal budget, revenue target is expected
to rise to PKR14.3 trillion from FY25 target of PKR12.3tn. A key highlight
includes tariff rationalization; capping the highest tariff at 15%, removing
Additional Customs Duty (ACD), and reducing Regulatory Duty by 80% till FY30.
The National Accounts Committee approved the provisional GDP
growth at 2.68%YoY for FY25. Consequently, Pakistan's economy has expanded to
US$411 billion, making it the 40th largest in the world and pushing per capita
income to a record US$1,824.
In its post–first review report, IMF acknowledged that
Pakistan has met all quantitative performance criteria, most indicative
targets, and several structural benchmarks.
IMF also revised down GDP growth and current account deficit
forecasts and updated the timelines of structural benchmarks along with
introducing new ones for the coming year. Furthermore, IMF endorsed the GoP
plan to eliminate the power sector's circular debt by FY31.
On the currency front, PKR depreciated by 0.11%WoW to close
at PKR281.97/US$. Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)
increased by US$1.0 billion to a 17-week high of US$11.4 billion.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF
projects external debt to rise to US$126.7 billion by next financial year, 2)
Profit repatriation jumps 115%YoY in last month, 3) During Q3FY25 Pakistan
economy posts 2.4%YoY growth, and 4) Power generation surges 22%YoY in April
2025.
Woolen, Transport, and Inv Banks/ Cos & Securities Cos
were amongst the top performers, while Sugar & Allied Industries, Cement,
and Cable & Electrical Goods reported remained laggards.
Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds, other organizations,
and Companies with a net sell of US$10.1 million, US$4.1 million, and US$2.9 million
respectively. Individuals and Insurance absorbed most of the selling with a net
buy of US$13.1 million and US$7.5 million, respectively.
Top performing scrips of the week were: POML, RMPL, GADT,
BNWM, and PKGP, while laggards included: HUMNL, NATF, LUCK, AVN, and MARI.
According to AKD Securities, the market is expected to
remain positive in the coming weeks, with developments around the upcoming
federal budget likely to guide short-term sentiment. The KSE100 is
anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong
earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of
E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic
stability.
The top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL,
PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.
Friday, 2 May 2025
PSX benchmark index down 1.17%WoW
Positive signals from the United States and Gulf countries
urging de-escalation, along with a lower-than-expected inflation reading for
April 2025, contributed to a recovery in sentiment during the final trading
session.
Corporate results also influenced stock specific
performance, particularly in the banking, cement, and technology sectors.
Inflation in April 2025 eased further to 0.28%YoY, compared to 0.69%YoY in the
previous month. In another positive development, Pakistan’s case for approval
of the US$1.0 billion second tranche and US$1.3 billion RSF program from IMF’s
executive board has been scheduled for review on May 09. However, on the fiscal
side, tax collection during the outgoing month fell short of target by PKR117 billion,
taking the 10MFY25 collection shortfall to PKR831 billion. Additionally, trade
deficit widened by 36%YoY to US$3.4 billion in April 2025, due to a 14%YoY
increase in imports and 9%YoY decline in exports.
Market participation also weakened amid the prevailing
volatility, with average daily traded volume falling by 29%WoW to 424 million
shares as against compared to 599 million shares a week ago.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) US urging
Pakistan and India to work towards responsible resolution, 2) Consumer Confidence
Index increasing by 20.9%QoQ in 2QFY25, 3) Petrol, diesel prices declining, and
4) the GoP announcing tax relief to salaried class subject to IMF nod.
Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Sugar & Allied
Industries, and Modarabas were amongst the top performing sector, while
Transport, Refinery, and Pharmaceuticals were the laggards.
Major selling was recorded by Individuals and Foreigner with
a net sell of US$14.0 million, while Mutual funds and other organizations
absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$10.5 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: AKBL, AICL, PKGP,
SYS, and JDWS, while laggards included: APG, GLAXO, CNERGY, KTML, and PPL.
According to AKD Securities, market outlook remains
positive, with anticipated rate cut, up to 100bps in the upcoming MPC meeting
on Monday, and the IMF Executive board's approval of the second tranche and RSF
program.
Moreover, the likelihood of wider scale escalation between
Pakistan and India remains lows, the brokerage house maintains an “Overweight”
stance on Banks, E&Ps, Fertilizer, Cement, OMCs, Autos, Textile, and Technology
sectors.
These sectors are likely to benefit from monetary easing,
structural reforms, reciprocal tariffs and a continued decline in commodity prices.
The top picks of the brokerage include, MEBL, MCB, FFC, OGDC,
PPL, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.
Friday, 28 March 2025
PSX experiences slight pullback
Average daily trading volume also dropped by 38%WoW, to 317
million shares, as compared to 508 million shares traded a week ago.
The profit taking was driven by substantial selling by
Insurance companies, alongside month-end rollovers, which added to investors’
unease before Eid holidays.
Several positive developments emerged during the week, as
IMF confirmed reaching the Staff Level Agreement (SLA) with the authorities in
the first review of EFF, supplemented with a 28-month arrangement of US$1.3 billion
under Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), pending approval of the
IMF’s Executive Board.
GDP growth for 2QFY25 was recorded at 1.7%YoY, with
Agriculture recovering by 1.1%YoY amidst a 5.4%YoY decline in crops growth.
PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout
the week.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF team
due in May to finalize FY26 budget, 2) GoP to slash power tariffs soon, 3)
Turkiye, Denmark to support climate fight, 4) Net metering contract term
limited to 5 years, and 5) Pakistan receives US$9.77 billion via RDA as of
February 2025.
Tobacco, Glass & Ceramics, and Vanaspati & Allied
Industries were amongst the top performing sectors, while Leather &
Tanneries, Paper & Board, and Technology & Communication were amongst
the laggards.
Major selling was recorded by Insurance Companies with a net
sell of US$8.8 million. Individuals and Other Organizations absorbed most of
the selling with a net buy of US$9.3 million.
Top performers during the week were: PAKT, UBL, ATLH, NPL,
and ABOT, while laggards included: PKGP, SRVI, KTML, CHCC, and NML.
According to AKD Securities the arket is expected to remain
positive in the coming weeks, with the recent announcement of a staff-level
agreement serving as a key trigger for momentum.
The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward
trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in fertilizers, sustained ROEs
in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from
falling interest rates and economic stability.
Top pick of the brokerage house includes, OGDC, PPL, PSO,
FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.
Friday, 21 March 2025
PSX records another record high closing
The optimism was driven by expectations of a successful
conclusion of the IMF staff level agreement, where revisions to macroeconomic
targets under the MEFP were presented, including downward adjustments to FBR’s
annual tax collection target, inflation, and GDP growth.
An extra up to US$1.5 billion under climate financing was
discussed as well. Additionally, positive momentum was also driven by the IMF’s
approval of government’s plan to borrow PKR1.25 trillion from commercial banks
to resolve circular debt, which led a rally in the E&P and OMC sectors.
On the macroeconomic front, Current Account Deficit for
February 2025 was reported at US$12 million taking 8MFY25 number to a surplus
of US$691 million. Moreover, fertilizer offtake dropped 36%YoY during February
2025, where Urea offtake was recorded at 347,000 tons, down 36%YoY.
Auto financing increased by 3%MoM during February 2025 as
well, marking a rise for the second consecutive month.
Market participation also improved, with average daily
traded volume rising by 51%WoW to 508 million shares from 337 million shares in
the earlier week.
Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)
rose by US$49 million to US$11.15 billion as of March 14, 2025.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) 8MFY25
exports were up 8.4%YoY, 2) Saudi Arabia approved US$100 million Oil Facility to
resume from the ongoing month, 3) World Bank approved US$102 million for
Pakistan, 4) SPI declined to 1.7%YoY, and 5) GoP agreed to decrease import
duties to 7.1% from the current 10.6%, as per IMF conditions.
On the main board, E&P, Cable & Electrical goods,
and Refinery were amongst the top performers, while Fertilizer and Commercial
Banks reported a decline.
Major selling was recorded by Individuals and Companies with
a net sell of US$10.5 million. Mutual funds absorbed most of the selling with a
net buy of US$13.9 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: NML, MARI, PAEL,
IBFL, and TRG, while laggards included: SCBPL, AICL, FATIMA, EFERT, and FABL.
According to AKD Securities, the market is expected to
remain positive in the coming weeks, with the potential announcement of a
staff-level agreement in the near term serving as a key trigger for momentum.
The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily
driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and
improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates
and economic stability.
The top pick of the brokerage house includes, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP, and SYS.
Friday, 14 March 2025
PSX records lackluster movement
The week started on a negative note as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to leave the interest rate unchanged, coupled with the IMF raising concern over government’s plan for resolving PKR1.25 trillion circular debt through commercial bank borrowing, kept investors cautious.
However, positive developments in ongoing policy-level
discussions with IMF improved sentiment during the last two trading sessions, enabling
the benchmark index to close on Friday at 115,536 points, with weekly gains of
1,137 points or up 1.0%WoW.
As per news flows, IMF has agreed to cut the FBR tax target
by PKR620 billion, lowering total revenue target to PKR12.35 trillion, while
assuring readjustments in expenditure by authorities to maintain a primary
surplus of PKR2.4 trillion.
Notably, FBR tax collection during 8MFY25 missed the target
by PKR600 billion.
The IMF revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast to range
between 2.0 to 2.25% from 3.6% earlier, while also lowering its inflation
projection to 7.0% from 12.5%.
Meanwhile, Moody’s upgraded Pakistan’s banking sector
outlook to positive from stable, along with upward revision in GDP projection.
Worker remittance increased by 39%YoY to US$3.1 billion
during February 2025.
Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP eroded by US$152 million
to US$11.1 billion as of March 07, 2025.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) China
rolls over US$2 billion loan to Pakistan for one more year, 2) GoP mulls higher
petrol levy amid revenue shortfalls 3) Passenger car sales increased by 44.6%YoY
to 67,135 units during first eight months of the current financial year, 4) GoP
hikes gas tariff for captive power plants on IMF prodding, and 5) ECC approves
amendments to net-metering regulations, cuts buyback rate to PKR10/unit.
Miscellaneous, and Inv. Banks/ Cos. were amongst the top
performing sectors, while Jute, Synthetic & Rayon, and Glass & ceramics
remained laggards.
Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net sell
of US$7.6 million. Banks absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$7.6 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: PABC, PSO, MARI, JDWS,
and DGKC, while laggards included: IBFL, ISL, TGL, INIL, and PGLC.
According to AKD Securities, the market is expected to
remain positive with the potential announcement of a staff-level agreement on
the first review over the weekend acting as a key trigger for momentum.
The market is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily
driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and
improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest
rates and economic stability.
The top pick of the brokerage house include: MEBL, MCB, HBL,
FFC, ENGROH, OGDC, PPL, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP, and SYS.
Friday, 7 March 2025
PSX remains under pressure
Inflation for February 2025, clocked in at 1.52%YoY, the
lowest in 9 years, sparking investor optimism and fueling expectations of a
potential rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting
scheduled for March 10, 2025.
Alongside reports about the government's efforts to
eliminate circular debt in the power sector by borrowing PKR1.25 trillion from
commercial banks at an interest rate of 10.8%.
The rally in Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Cement and
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors was recorded.
Trade deficit for February clocked in at US$2.3 billion, up
33%YoY, due to 10%YoY increase in imports to US$4.7 billion.
OMC offtake was recorded at 1.136 million tons, up 2%YoY.
Market participation decreased due to Ramadan, with the
average daily traded volume recorded at 290.33 million share as against 474.90 million
shares in the earlier week, down 38.9%WoW.
PKR largely remained flat against the greenback throughout
the week.
Other major news flows during the week included: 1) IMF may allow
cut in FBR target below PkR12.5 trillion, 2) Cement dispatches post
double-digit growth for second consecutive month, 3) FBR proposes reduction in
tax rates for Beverages, tobacco and real estate sector, and 4) Public debt
rose to PKR72.1 trillion.
Glass & Ceramics, Oil & Gas Marketing Companies, Oil
& Gas Exploration Companies, Chemical and Mutual Funds were amongst the top
performing sectors, while Leasing Companies, Inv. Banks/ Inv. Cos/ Securities Cos,
Transport, Sugar & Allied Products and Automobile Assembler were amongst
the worst performers.
Major selling was recorded by Individuals with a net sell of
US$6.18 million. Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of
US$4.22 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: GHGL, TGL, FCCL,
SNGP, and PSO, while laggards included: MEHT, PGLC, ENGROH, JDWS, and MUREB.
According to AKD Securities, market is expected to maintain
its positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed
income to equities amid falling fixed income yields.
With easing inflation, the upcoming MPC meeting will remain
a key focus. Over the medium term, the benchmark index is anticipated to
sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong
profitability of Fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of Banks and
improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from
falling interest rates.
Saturday, 22 February 2025
PSX records modestly positive activities
The authorities' stance against imposing new taxes ahead of
the upcoming IMF review boosted investor confidence, with expectations of
smooth review process, expected next month.
On the macro front, foreign direct investment (FDI) surged
by 56%YoY to US$1.5 billion in 7MFY25, primarily due to higher inflows from
China into the power sector, especially Hydel projects.
Current account posted a deficit of US$420 million in
January 2025 after three months of surplus, driven by 17%YoY increase in
imports. However, the 7MFY25 balance remained in surplus at US$682 million.
Yields in the latest auction rose by 3 to 17bps, with 3-month
yield on T-bills climbing to 11.82%.
Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) index declined by 1.87%YoY
in 1HFY25, primarily due to a slowdown in construction-related sectors.
Market participation also improved, with average daily
traded volume increasing by 14%WoW to 590 million shares, from 519 million shares
a week ago.
Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan
(SBP) increased by US$35 million to US$11.20 billion as of February 14, 2025.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF and
Pakistan to discuss US$1bn climate finance talks next week, 2) overseas
investors repatriate US$1.3 billion during first seven months of the current
financial years, 3) IFC announces to invest US$2 billion annually in Pakistan’s
infrastructure, 4) textile exports increased by 11%YoY in seven months, and 5)
GoP decides to deregulate fuel prices and auction offshore blocks.
Glass ceramics, Jute, and textile spinning were amongst the
top performing sectors, while Transport, Pharmaceuticals, and Close-end mutual
funds reported were the laggards.
Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Foreigners
with a net sell of US$8.6 million and US$5.1 million, respectively. Insurance
companies, Individuals, and Companies absorbed most of the selling with an
aggregate buy of US$14 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: BOP, FCCL, KTML, TGL,
and DGKC, while laggards included: SAZEW, MEHT, SEARL, TRG, and ABOT.
According to AKD Securities market outlook remains positive,
with the KSE-100 expected to be influenced by corporate earnings announcements,
which could set the tone for sector-specific movements.
Any developments regarding the upcoming IMF review or the
US$1.0 billion climate financing by IMF could further trigger positive
momentum. Over the medium term, the KSE-100 is anticipated to sustain its
upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in fertilizers,
sustained ROEs in banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs,
benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.
Friday, 14 February 2025
PSX benchmark index up 1.6%WoW
Trading volumes inched higher as compared to last week to
525.1 million shares (up 21.0%WoW). In MSCI's February 2025 index review, one
company was added, and another was upgraded to the MSCI Frontier Markets Index
from small cap. Additionally, three securities were added and three were
removed from the MSCI Small Cap Index. On the macro front, several important
data points came in during the week, including remittances for January 2025
were reported at US$3.0 billion, up 25%YoY.
PIB auction witnessed yields declining by 25bps for the
2-year paper as well, while remaining flat for 3, 5 and 10 year tenures.
Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)
declined by US$252 million to US$11.2 billion as of February 07, 2025.
Urea sales dropped 27%YoY and DAP sales dropped 8%YoY during
January 2025. Automobile sales increased by 31%YoY to 19,372, given New Year
effect being the primary catalyst behind the sales increase alongside OEM’s
providing discounts/installment offers on selective variants.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Three out
of five key IMF conditions were met, 2) 1HFY25 budget deficit recorded at 1.2%
of GDP, 3) Pakistan requested rescheduling of US$3.4 billion Chinese debt, 4)
IMF appreciated ongoing reforms in judiciary, 5) Prime Minister Shahbaz met UAE
president in Abu Dhabi to further strengthen bilateral ties.
Jute, Refinery, and Woollen were amongst the top performing
sectors, while top laggards included Leasing, Vanaspati & Allied
Industries, and Textile Weaving.
Major selling was recorded by Individuals, Foreigners and
Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$17.5 million. Banks absorbed most of the
selling with a net buy of US$9.7 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: BOP, LUCK, ATRL,
PSEL, and MLCF, while laggards included: PGLC, MEHT, BAHL, KTML, and PABC.
According to AKD Securities, the market outlook remains
positive, with the market expected to largely being driven by specific scrips
and sectors, following any trigger or corporate results.
Over the medium term, the benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.
Friday, 7 February 2025
PSX index records 3.4%WoW decline
The decline was mainly driven by higher dividend-yielding
sectors, including Fertilizer, E&P, and Banks, as stocks prices corrected
adjusting their dividend yields in line to rising secondary yields.
Notably, in the last T-Bills auction, cutoff yields
increased, taking 12-month yields to 11.59%, as investors reacted to a
lower-than-expected policy rate cut and opted to wait for the IMF review.
Trade deficit widened by 18%YoY to US$2.3 billion in January
2025, driven by a 10%YoY rise in imports.
On a positive note, inflation eased to a nine-year low of
2.4%YoY in January.
The Sindh and Baluchistan assemblies passed the agriculture
income tax bill during the week, complying another IMF condition ahead of the
upcoming review.
President Asif Zardari's visit to China generated positive
sentiment, with discussions on CPEC Phase-II continuing to unfold.
Market participation declined, with average daily traded volume
falling 13%WoW to 434 million shares, from 498 million shares in the earlier
week.
On a positive note foreign exchange reserves held by the
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$46 million to US$11.4 billion as
of January 31, 2025.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan
and SFD sign US$1.61 billion agreements to boost economic cooperation, 2) FBR
faces PKR468 billion shortfall in 7MFY25 revenue collection, 3) sales of POL
rise 4%YoY in the first seven months of the current financial year, 4) Cement
dispatches increased by 14%YoY in January, and 5) POL price were increased in the
last fortnightly review.
Among the various sectors only REIT was a positive performer,
while Refinery, Transport, OMC, E&P, and Technology sectors witnessed
erosion in value.
Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net sell
of US$5.5 million, barring sale of 6.0% stake of PKGS by Enso AB. Individuals
absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$7.9 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: SAZEW, AICL, NPL,
MUGHAL, and INIL, while laggards included: ENGROH, MTL, POL, PTC, and ATLH.
According to AKD Securities, the market outlook remains
positive, with the market expected to largely being driven by specific scrips
and sectors, following any trigger or corporate results.
The upcoming MSCI review next week could serve as a potential catalyst for market sentiments. Over the medium term, the benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of Fertilizer companies, higher sustainable RoEs of Banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.
Friday, 24 January 2025
PSX witnesses subdued activities
Benchmark KSE-100 index declined by 392 points, down 0.3%WoW
to close at 114,880 points on Friday, January 24, 2025. However, trading volumes
grew as compared to last week, reaching 699 million shares, up 25%WoW.
Several important data points came in during the week,
including a Current Account Surplus of US$582 million for December 2024, taking
cumulative 1HFY25 balance to US$1.21 billion.
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised PKR297 billion through
T-Bills auction during the week, with 12-month yields dropping to 11.39%, down
41bps.
IMF revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3%
and for 2026 to 4%, slightly downwards from previous projection.
On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by SBP
declined by US$276 million to US$11.5 billion. PKR weakened marginally against
the greenback to close at PKR278.75 to a US$.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP agrees
terms for US$1 billion loan with 2 Middle Eastern banks, 2) Saudi firm agrees to
invest up to US$1 billion in Reko Diq project, 3) Foreigners withdraw US$38.5 million
from T-Bills by January 10, 4) Pakistan to float US$200 million panda bonds in
June, 5) World Bank to lend US$20 billion to Pakistan, 6) Petrol price increases,
and 7) Urea sales increases by 58%YoY during CY24 to 6.6 million tons.
Fertilizer, Inv. Banks, and Textile weaving were amongst the
top performing sectors, while E&P, Jute, & transport sectors were among
the laggards.
Major net selling was recorded by Banks at US$14.1 million.
Foreigners and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$11 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: FCCL, KTML, CNERGY,
LOTCHEM, and MLCF, while laggards included: MARI, NRL, SAZEW, PGLC, and PIBTL.
According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities,
PSX is expected to remain on positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated
shift of funds from fixed income to equities amid falling fixed income yields.
The upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting,
scheduled on June 27, will remain a key focus.
Over the medium term, the KSE-100 index is anticipated to
sustain its upward momentum throughout CY25, primarily driven by the
strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of banks
and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling
interest rates.
Friday, 6 December 2024
PSX benchmark index up 7.6%WoW
The bullish momentum was fueled by November 2024 inflation recorded at 4.9%YoY, lowest in nearly six and half years, fueling expectations for continued monetary easing in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee scheduled for December 16, 2024.
Major contributing sectors to this rally were commercial banks, followed by Fertilizer, and Oil & Gas Exploration. Interest in the banking sector continued to rise, with gross advances increasing by 21%YoY as of November 15, 2024, taking the ADR to 46.9%, with expectations of crossing the 50% threshold before the year-end to avoid ADR-based taxation.
Meanwhile, fertilizer sector advanced on ENGRO’s agreement to acquire the Jazz Tower business, coupled with the Lahore High Court’s approval of the FFC-FFBL merger.
Saudi Fund extends term of US$3 billion deposits for another year.
Trade deficit for November 2024 was reported at US$1.6 billion, down 19%YoY.
Total debt dropped by 1%MoM to PKR69 trillion in October 2024.
Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$620 million, following a US$500 million loan disbursement from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), taking total reserves held by SBP to US$12.0 billion as of November 29, 2024.
Market participation increased by 21.5%WoW to 1.7 billion shares, as compared to 1.4 billion shares traded in the earlier week.
PKR remained stable against the greenback, closing the week at PKR278.01 to a US$.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Saudi crown prince accepted invitation to visit Pakistan, 2) Oil sales surged to 25-month high, 3) Cement dispatches increased 5.58%YoY, 4) FBR decided to put more curbs on FATA/PATA steel sector and 5) Prime Minister hinted towards cut in policy rate.
Vanaspati & Allied Products, Transport, Refinery, Cable & Electrical goods and Engineering were amongst the top performing sectors.
Major selling was recorded by Individuals, Insurance companies, and foreigners with a net sell of US$26.0 million, US$21.0 million, and US$14.2 million, respectively. Mutual funds and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$44.0 million and US$10.7 million, respectively.
Top performing scrips of the week were: CNERGY, Airlink, PABC, NML, and PAEL, while laggards included: EFUG, JVDC, HBL, AKBL, and PSEL.
Continuation of monetary easing due to disinflationary environment and improving macroeconomic environment would make investment in equities more appealing, currently trading at P/E of 5.0x and DY of 10.2%.
Moving forward, upcoming MPC meeting would remain in investor’s focus, also keeping cyclical sector attractive.
Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive.
Top picks of AKD Securities include: OGDC, PPL, MCB, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.
Saturday, 30 November 2024
PSX Index closes the week at the historic high
The volatility stemmed from acceleration in political
instability amid opposition party reaching to protest in the country’s Capital,
creating uncertainty amongst the investor, leading to a major fall in benchmark
index, marking a decrease of 3,506 points on Tuesday. However, market regained
its momentum on Wednesday after the protestors started to back off from
Islamabad and the momentum was further fueled by a circular from the State Bank
of Pakistan (SBP), removing the MDR requirements on deposits held by Commercial
banks of financial institutions and public sector enterprises. This led to the
KSE-100 index registering its highest ever intra-day gains of 4,695 points on
Wednesday, and closing at a record high of 101,357 points on Friday, marking an
increase of 3.6%WoW.
Major contributing sectors to this rally were commercial
banks, contributing 1,675 points, followed by Technology & Communication
with 349 points, and Oil & Gas Exploration, which added 283 points during
the week. However, with another circular from the SBP revising its guidelines
for profit sharing on saving deposits for Islamic Banking Institutions (IBIs),
which resulted in MEBL eroding 439 points during the week.
Secondary market yields on the 6-month bill decreased to
12.12%, dropping to the lowest levels seen in over 2.5 years.
Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$131
million WoW, ending the week at US$11.4 billion as of November 22, 2024.
Average daily trading volume remained higher, up by
39.8%WoW, rising to 1.4 billion shares, as compared to 990.7 million shares
traded a week ago.
PKR witnessed a meagre depreciation of 0.1% against the
greenback during the week to close at 278.05PKR/US$.
Other major news flow during the week included, 1) SBP
receives US$500 million from ADB under climate resilience program, 2) IT
Ministry released incentive plan for semiconductor industry, 3) Pakistan,
Belarus announced to boost ties with 8 MoUs, and 4) the GoP formed a body to
oversee Reko Diq deal.
Property, Leather & Tanneries, Oil & Gas Marketing
Companies, Technology & Communication and Exchange Traded Funds were
amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute, Woollen, Transport, Automobile
Assembler & INV.Banks/ INV.Cos/ Securities Cos. were amongst the worst performers.
Major selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of
US$15.1 million. Insurance Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net
buy of US$10.6 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: BOP, AKBL, HBL,
JVDC, and MEHT, while laggards included: MEBL, FABL, PSEL, SAZEW, and GHGL.
Continuation of monetary easing due to disinflationary
environment and improving macroeconomic environment would make investment in
equities more appealing, currently trading at P/E of 4.9x and DY of 10.2%.
Aforementioned factors, along with declining external
financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest
alive.
AKD Securities recommends sectors that benefit from monetary
easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic recovery may limit the
upside for cyclicals.
The top picks of the brokerage house include, OGDC, PPL,
MCB, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.
Friday, 15 November 2024
PSX benchmark index closes at record high
The bullish momentum continues on the back of accelerated
pace of monetary easing by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and IMF’s visit with a
focus on structural reforms.
During the visit, the IMF mission held discussions with
local authorities, focusing on the external financing gap and the Federal Board
of Revenue (FBR) revenue collections. FBR officials assured the IMF that the
revenue target would remain unchanged, attributing the shortfall in revenue
collection during the first four months of FY25 to inaccurate economic assumptions,
particularly regarding GDP growth, imports, and inflation.
Both the sides discussed short-term as well as long-term
measures to address the potential revenue shortfall, including raising taxes on
sugary drinks and the import of machinery and raw materials.
In the latest T-Bills auctions, the SBP raised PKR776
billion, with bulk of the participation confined to 3-month tenor. The yield on
the 3-month bill decreased by 20bps, while the yield on the 12-month bill
increased by 10bps.
Auto sector sales for October 2024 was reported at 15,192
units, up 31%YoY.
Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$84
million WoW, ending the week at US$11.2 billion as of November 08, 2024.
Average daily traded volume rose by 19.6%WoW to 878.5 million
shares, from 734.6 million shares traded a week ago.
PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout
the week.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Gop
awaits IMF stance on mini-budget, 2) Solarization plunging power demand upsets
IMF, 3) APM Terminals commits to invest in Pakistan, 4) Finance Minister
invites Turkish firms for JVs and 5) Russia expresses interest in working with
Pakistan on North-South Trade Corridor (NSTC).
Transport, Woollen, Pharmaceuticals, Vanaspati & Allied industries
and Glass & Ceramics were amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute,
Mutual Funds, Automobile Assembler, Fertilizer & Engineering were the
laggards.
Major net selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell
of US$11.0 million, while Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net
buy of US$13.9 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: Searl, EFUG, BNWN, TRG,
and ABOT, while laggards included: FCEPL, THALL, MLCF, MUGHAL, and KOSM.
Continuation of monetary easing and improving macroeconomic
environment would make investment in equities more appealing, currently trading
at P/E of 4.2x and DY of 10.8%.
Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing
requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive. We
recommend sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms.
However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for
cyclicals. Top picks of AKD Securities include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, MEBL, FFC, PSO,
LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.
Monday, 11 November 2024
PSX creates new highs every week
The momentum was fuelled by State Bank of
Pakistan (SBP) accelerating the pace of monetary easing with 250bps cut
resulting in policy rate to end at 15% as inflation continues to fall towards
the central bank medium term target range, providing impetus to cyclical
sectors.
MSCI added eight Pakistani scrips while
removing one from its MSCI FM Small Cap Index as part of its November review.
Furthermore, an IMF mission is scheduled to
arrive Pakistan for the first review of the US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), which was originally due in March 2025 but will take place four months
ahead of schedule.
Cement offtakes for October 2024 was
reported at 4.36 million tons, up 9%YoY.
Workers’ remittance remained robust and
reported at US$3.0 billion for October 2024, taking 4MFY25 remittances to
US$11.8 billion (up 35%YoY).
Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased
by US$18 million WoW to US$11.2 billion as of November 01, 2024.
Average daily trading volume rose to 896.1 million
shares from 682.8 million shares traded a week ago, up 31.2%WoW.
On the currency front, PKIR largely
remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.
Other major news flow during the week included:
1) Qatar to invest US$3 billion in diverse sectors 2) exports up 13.45%YoY to
U$10.88 billion during first four months of the current financial year, 3)
Eurobond sale planned for the next financial year, 4) Tax exemptions in FY24
amounted to PKR3.8 trillion, and 5) GoP to raise PKR8.7 trillion debt to pay
maturing loans.
Refinery, Exchange traded fund, Jute,
Mutual Funds and Paper & Board were amongst the top performers, Synthetic
& Rayon, Tobacco, Real Estate Investment Trust, Banks & Leather &
Tanneries.
Major net selling was recorded by
Individuals with a net sell of US$13.6 million. Mutual Funds emerged major
buyers with net a net buy of US$22.0 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were:
PIBTL, HCAR, BOP, PKGS. and FCEPL, while top laggards included: SCBPL, IBFL,
FABL, SRVI, and HBL.
Continuation of monetary easing due to
disinflationary environment and improving macroeconomic environment is likely
to make investment in equities more appealing.
Aforementioned factors, along with
declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep
foreigners’ interest alive.
AKD Securities recommend sectors that
benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic
recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals.
Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, MCB, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.
Friday, 8 March 2024
Stock market posts lackluster movement
With new Prime Minister taking office and issuing immediate directives focusing on engaging with the IMF and addressing privatization matters set an initial positive impetus. With new setup in place the IMF started rolling out new recommendations and is poised to unveil more with the appointment of the finance minister.
Government’s next major task will be to smoothly navigate the second review of the SBA. IMF’ team is scheduled to visit following the formation of the new cabinet, as SBA program is set to expire in April 2024.
The recent decline in cut-off yields for 3-month papers in last T-bill auction hints volatility, suggesting that some players anticipate a rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on March 18.
Remittances for February totaled US$2.25 billion, up 13%YoY and with trade deficit of US$1.7 billion for the month.
Market participation remained subdued, with the daily traded volume averaging 412 million shares as compared to 418 million shares in the earlier week, down 1.6%WoW.
On the currency front, rupee held its ground against the greenback, closing at PkR279.04/US$.
Other major news flows during the week included; 1) Jul-Jan debt during first seven months of the current financial year rose by 6 percent, 2) SBP injected PKR8 trillion to ease liquidity crunch, 3) Bank deposits surged nearly 21%YoY in February on record-high interest rates and remittances, 4) cement dispatches in February fall 19% to 3.26 million tons, and 5) Textile exports hit US$1.41 billion in February, up 20%YoY.
Sector-wise, Transport, Refinery, and Inv. Banks/ Securities cos. were amongst the top performers, while Tobacco, Modarabas, and Textile weaving were amongst the worst performers.
Major net selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell of US$6.8 million. Foreigners absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$6.3 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: NRL, DAWH, CNERGY, PAEL and PSX, while the laggards included: SML, FCEPL, PAKT, MEBL and SHFA.
The upcoming MPC meeting will remain in the limelight. With prevailing consensus of the status quo, the market is likely to remain largely unaffected as this expectation is already priced in. However, if there is any surprise cut, it could unlock funds towards debt-heavy cyclical sectors.
The imminent announcement of the federal cabinet in the coming week holds significance, with progress on the IMF's SBA third tranche as a near-term focal point and a potential positive in sight.
Friday, 26 January 2024
Pakistan Stock Exchange gains 531 points
Following this upbeat start, the E&P sector took center stage over developments on clearance of circular debt amounting to PKR1.2 trillion.
As the week drew to a close, conflicting narratives emerged, creating uncertainty around the viability of the circular debt plan. News reports, citing insiders, presented divergent stories—one suggesting the imminent presentation of the plan to the IMF and another reporting objections raised by the Finance Ministry. This uncertainty contributed to corrections observed in the last two trading days, with the likelihood of rate cuts diminishing.
Although discussions around rate cuts gained traction with reduction in cut-off yields in the last T-bills auction, the specter of persistent inflation, projected at 28% for Jan’23, tempered expectations of any rate cut.
The foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan witnessed a weekly increase of US$243 million. The inflow of US$700 million from the IMF was constrained by debt repayments.
Market participation remained cautious due to uncertainties surrounding the circular debt plan and the impending Monetary Policy Committee stance, with average daily traded volume exhibiting a decline of 16%WoW at 392 million shares from 467 million shares in the earlier week.
Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Pakistan and Kuwait to set up US$1 billion fund and 2) Cabinet body set to okay brown-field refinery policy.
Textile Composite, E&P, and Leather & Tanneries companies were amongst the top performers, while Automobile parts & Accessories, Transport, and Property were amongst the worst performers.
Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$22.7 million. Insurance absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$9.6 million.
Top performers of the week were: OGDC, ATLH, APL, LCI, and HMB, while top laggards included: HCAR, PTC, GADT, JVDC, PIBTL.
Market outlook hinges significantly on interest rate move scheduled to be announced on Monday January 29. While the status quo has already been factored into the market expectations, any surprise rate cut could likely trigger an immediate rally.
The resolution of the circular debt clearance plan in the upcoming week is anticipated to provide clarity to market participants, especially in the context of E&P stocks.
As the elections draw near, the settling dust is indicative of stabilization and with successful completion is anticipated to inject positive momentum into the market.
Investors are advised to seize every opportunity for the accumulation of blue-chip stocks.