Thursday, 5 June 2025

PSX benchmark index up 1.6%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum throughout the week, driven primarily by investor confidence ahead of the upcoming budget.

This optimism was reflected by the benchmark Index surging by 1,950 points or 1.6%WoW to close the week at 121,641 points on Thursday, the last trading day before commencement of Eid-ul Adha holidays.

Market participation was lean as average daily trading declined to 660 million, down from 662 million shares a week ago.

Overall, opinion on the street remains that a stable fiscal environment to continue, with no significant shift in existing tax structures for individuals and businesses alike in the forthcoming Federal Budget (FY26).

On the macroeconomic front, trade deficit was reported at US$2.6 billion for May 2025.

Cement saless for May 2025 were reported at 4.65 million tons, up 9%YoY, driven by higher domestic offtakes. Analysts project domestic cement sales to grow by 6%YoY in FY26, mainly due to the revival in construction activity supported by a declining interest rate and lower inflationary environment.

OMC industry sales remained on upward trajectory, rising to 1.53 million tons, up 10%YoY.

PKR remained under pressure, depreciated by 0.05%WoW against the greenback.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistani officials scheduled to meet US authorities next week for the trade talks, 2) IMF and Pakistan arrived near consensus on cut in tax rates for salaried class, 3) suggestion to hike interest rate by 2% on income from bank deposits, 4) GoP eyes 4.2%YoY growth in FY26 and 5) ADB approves US$800 million to boost Pakistan’s public finance.

Power Generation & Distribution, Textile Weaving, Modarbas, Leasing Companies and Inv.Banks/ Inv.cos/ Securities.cos were amongst the top performing sectors, while Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Synthetic Rayon, Transport, Cable & Electrical Goods and Paper & Board were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Foreigners and Mutual funds with a net sell of US$26.01 million, Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$8.6 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PKGP, FABL, NATF, NBP and KEL, while top laggards included: POML, IBFL, SYS, APL and KTML.

According to AKD Securities, budget-related developments are expected to drive short-term market sentiment, with the possibility of single-digit interest rates contributing to a positive outlook over time, as its forecast for FY26 inflation stands at 7.0%.

The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.

 

 

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