PSX benchmark index closes at record high

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) maintained its bullish momentum throughout the week ended on November 15, 2024, with the benchmark index closing at a record high 94,763 points, marking a 1.6%WoW increase, achieving its highest-ever closing.

The bullish momentum continues on the back of accelerated pace of monetary easing by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and IMF’s visit with a focus on structural reforms.

During the visit, the IMF mission held discussions with local authorities, focusing on the external financing gap and the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) revenue collections. FBR officials assured the IMF that the revenue target would remain unchanged, attributing the shortfall in revenue collection during the first four months of FY25 to inaccurate economic assumptions, particularly regarding GDP growth, imports, and inflation.

Both the sides discussed short-term as well as long-term measures to address the potential revenue shortfall, including raising taxes on sugary drinks and the import of machinery and raw materials.

In the latest T-Bills auctions, the SBP raised PKR776 billion, with bulk of the participation confined to 3-month tenor. The yield on the 3-month bill decreased by 20bps, while the yield on the 12-month bill increased by 10bps.

Auto sector sales for October 2024 was reported at 15,192 units, up 31%YoY.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$84 million WoW, ending the week at US$11.2 billion as of November 08, 2024.

Average daily traded volume rose by 19.6%WoW to 878.5 million shares, from 734.6 million shares traded a week ago.

PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Gop awaits IMF stance on mini-budget, 2) Solarization plunging power demand upsets IMF, 3) APM Terminals commits to invest in Pakistan, 4) Finance Minister invites Turkish firms for JVs and 5) Russia expresses interest in working with Pakistan on North-South Trade Corridor (NSTC).

Transport, Woollen, Pharmaceuticals, Vanaspati & Allied industries and Glass & Ceramics were amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute, Mutual Funds, Automobile Assembler, Fertilizer & Engineering were the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell of US$11.0 million, while Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$13.9 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: Searl, EFUG, BNWN, TRG, and ABOT, while laggards included: FCEPL, THALL, MLCF, MUGHAL, and KOSM.

Continuation of monetary easing and improving macroeconomic environment would make investment in equities more appealing, currently trading at P/E of 4.2x and DY of 10.8%.

Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive. We recommend sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms.

However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals. Top picks of AKD Securities include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

PSX creates new highs every week

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum throughout the week ended November 08, 2024 with the benchmark index closing at 93,291 points, up by 2.7%WoW, achieving it’s highest ever closing.

The momentum was fuelled by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) accelerating the pace of monetary easing with 250bps cut resulting in policy rate to end at 15% as inflation continues to fall towards the central bank medium term target range, providing impetus to cyclical sectors.

MSCI added eight Pakistani scrips while removing one from its MSCI FM Small Cap Index as part of its November review.

Furthermore, an IMF mission is scheduled to arrive Pakistan for the first review of the US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was originally due in March 2025 but will take place four months ahead of schedule.

Cement offtakes for October 2024 was reported at 4.36 million tons, up 9%YoY. 

Workers’ remittance remained robust and reported at US$3.0 billion for October 2024, taking 4MFY25 remittances to US$11.8 billion (up 35%YoY).

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$18 million WoW to US$11.2 billion as of November 01, 2024.

Average daily trading volume rose to 896.1 million shares from 682.8 million shares traded a week ago, up 31.2%WoW.

On the currency front, PKIR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Qatar to invest US$3 billion in diverse sectors 2) exports up 13.45%YoY to U$10.88 billion during first four months of the current financial year, 3) Eurobond sale planned for the next financial year, 4) Tax exemptions in FY24 amounted to PKR3.8 trillion, and 5) GoP to raise PKR8.7 trillion debt to pay maturing loans.

Refinery, Exchange traded fund, Jute, Mutual Funds and Paper & Board were amongst the top performers, Synthetic & Rayon, Tobacco, Real Estate Investment Trust, Banks & Leather & Tanneries.

Major net selling was recorded by Individuals with a net sell of US$13.6 million. Mutual Funds emerged major buyers with net a net buy of US$22.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PIBTL, HCAR, BOP, PKGS. and FCEPL, while top laggards included: SCBPL, IBFL, FABL, SRVI, and HBL.

Continuation of monetary easing due to disinflationary environment and improving macroeconomic environment is likely to make investment in equities more appealing.

Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive.

AKD Securities recommend sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, MCB, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

Likely rate cut by European Central Bank

European Central Bank monetary policy announcement scheduled today is one the most important event risks of the week. Analysts should not be surprised if EUR/USD pair broke below 1.10 ahead of this rate decision.

Investors have big expectations for this meeting because of widespread deterioration in the Eurozone economy and talk of recession in Germany. EUR hit a 2-year low last week against the USD as German bund yields tumbled deeper into negative territory.

Back in July, Mario Draghi, Chief of European Central Bank brought up the benefits of a combination of measures and since then the need for stimulus intensified. While investors are preparing for a massive dose of stimulus, there's also a reasonable chance the ECB may under deliver.

The Eurozone economy needs help. Retail sales, inflation, employment and manufacturing activity slowed across the region and in Germany, growth contracted in the second quarter. The region's largest economy is crippled by weak global growth and a collapse in manufacturing. Not only did the PMI manufacturing index fall for the eighth month in a row but it reached to its weakest level in 7 years.

The Bundesbank said there's a very good chance that Germany will fall into a technical recession in the third quarter. With a tense trade war and weakening US and global growth, the grim outlook for the region is why the ECB needs to find ways to stimulate the economy.

The European Central Bank has many options including a rate cut, stronger forward guidance, a new program of asset purchases and compensation for banks to relieve the negative effects of negative interest rates. They prefer a combination of measures because they feel that a package is "more effective than a sequence of selective actions."

The market expects a minimum of a 10bp rate cut. If the central bank combines this with rate tiering or a new Quantitative Easing program, EUR/USD will sell off aggressively but if all they do is cut rates and strengthen their low rate pledge, euro will soar in disappointment.

With EUR so weak, less aggressive measures could trigger a sharp short squeeze in the currency. Unfortunately, there's resistance to a package that includes QE - one of the strongest forms of easing.

Bank of France Governor Villeroy is skeptical of the immediate need for QE while German and Dutch policy makers also believe its too early for the move.

Given the market's lofty expectations, EUR/USD traders could be setting themselves up for disappointment. Draghi could also opt for a stimulus package that does not include the most aggressive measures to leave his successor Christine Lagarde with ammo to fight a deeper slowdown.