PSX benchmark index up 2.14%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) regained momentum amid easing concerns over tariff tensions and stability in global crude oil prices. This recovery was further supported by improved corporate earnings. The KSE-100 index closed the week on Friday April 18, 2025 at 117,315 points, marking a gain of 2,462 points, up 2.14%WoW.

Average daily traded volume remained low, down by 18.2%WoW, to 455.8 million shares as compared to 557.3 million shares traded a week ago. Commercial banks were key contributors to the market’s rally, driven by stronger-than-expected earnings from UBL.

Moreover, Fitch upgraded Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’, amid expectations that continuation of stable economic policies will persist in supporting accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and contain external funding needs.

Alongside, news that the government and commercial banks have signed a term sheet for PKR1.2 trillion, as part of efforts to eliminate circular debt.

On the macroeconomic front, remittances by overseas Pakistanis for March 2025 touched a record high of US$4.1 billion, taking the current account surplus to US$1.2 billion —the highest monthly surplus on record.

Power generation in March 2025 was reported at 8,411GWh, up 5%YoY.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pak-IMF technical-level talks to commence next week, 2) Budget to offer relief for salaried class, 3) IT exports surge to US$2.8 billion in 9MFY25, 4) Kuwait extends oil credit facility for two years, and 5) Urea and DAP sales drop by 54%YoY each during March 2025.

Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Leasing Companies, and Jute were amongst the top performing sectors, while, Woollen, Synthetic & Rayon, and Tobacco were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Insurance Companies with a net sell of US$35.9 million. Individuals and Other Organizations absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$30.9 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PGLC, UBL, ATLH, SAZEW, and KTML, while laggards included EPCL, AGL, BNWM, IBFL, and HALEON.

Lower oil prices and favorable standing among exporting peers amid reciprocal tariffs are likely to support the economy and strengthen the outlook for a return to single-digit interest rates in CY25.

According to AKD Securities, the KSE-100 index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, with a target of over 165,000 points by end December 2025. This expectation is primarily based of strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and structural reforms.

Top picks of the brokerage house include, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

 

 

PSX witnesses subdued activities

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a marginally subdued week, with authorities proposing amendments to tax bill including increased restrictions on non-tax filers, barring them from the purchase of securities, investment in mutual funds, properties and even suspending their bank accounts. National Assembly panel is currently reviewing the proposals.

Benchmark KSE-100 index declined by 392 points, down 0.3%WoW to close at 114,880 points on Friday, January 24, 2025. However, trading volumes grew as compared to last week, reaching 699 million shares, up 25%WoW.

Several important data points came in during the week, including a Current Account Surplus of US$582 million for December 2024, taking cumulative 1HFY25 balance to US$1.21 billion.

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised PKR297 billion through T-Bills auction during the week, with 12-month yields dropping to 11.39%, down 41bps.

IMF revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3% and for 2026 to 4%, slightly downwards from previous projection.

On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by SBP declined by US$276 million to US$11.5 billion. PKR weakened marginally against the greenback to close at PKR278.75 to a US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP agrees terms for US$1 billion loan with 2 Middle Eastern banks, 2) Saudi firm agrees to invest up to US$1 billion in Reko Diq project, 3) Foreigners withdraw US$38.5 million from T-Bills by January 10, 4) Pakistan to float US$200 million panda bonds in June, 5) World Bank to lend US$20 billion to Pakistan, 6) Petrol price increases, and 7) Urea sales increases by 58%YoY during CY24 to 6.6 million tons.

Fertilizer, Inv. Banks, and Textile weaving were amongst the top performing sectors, while E&P, Jute, & transport sectors were among the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Banks at US$14.1 million. Foreigners and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$11 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: FCCL, KTML, CNERGY, LOTCHEM, and MLCF, while laggards included: MARI, NRL, SAZEW, PGLC, and PIBTL.

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities, PSX is expected to remain on positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

The upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled on June 27, will remain a key focus.

Over the medium term, the KSE-100 index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum throughout CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.