Pakistan Needs Another Resolution

Every year on March 23, Pakistan celebrates the adoption of the Lahore Resolution—the historic declaration that ultimately paved the way for the creation of Pakistan on August 14, 1947. For the Muslims of the subcontinent, the resolution represented far more than a political demand; it embodied the aspiration for sovereignty, dignity, and the right to determine their own future. More than eight decades later, Pakistan commemorates this milestone with pride and patriotic fervor. Yet the realities of the present compel a deeper reflection: does Pakistan today require another national resolve to safeguard its independence and strengthen its future? To read details click https://shkazmipk.com/pakistan-day-resolution/

PSX benchmark index down 2.3%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week, driven by ongoing Middle East military conflict. Overall, the benchmark index declined by 3,630 points or 2.3%WoW to close at 153,866 on Friday, March 13, 2026. Market participation remained moderate during the week, with average daily traded volumes declining to 548 million shares, from 791 million shares in the prior week.

Market began the week on a bearish note on Monday, as oil prices surged by more than 20% in intraday trading, with Brent crossing US$119/bbl in early trading as Iran conflict deepens with traffic halted at Strait of Hormuz. However, market largely recovered in subsequent session as oil prices stabilized after the announcement of release of 400 million bbl of oil from IEA strategic reserves, along with signals of easing sanctions on Russian oil following call between Trump and Putin. Moreover, status quo in the policy rate, with largely unchanged economic projections for inflation, current account, and foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), supported investors’ confidence

IMF mission concluded its Pakistan visit for the third review, with end-of-mission statement noting significant progress, while discussions will continue in the coming days, including a more fully assessment of impact of recent global developments.

Economic indicators remained largely positive, with worker remittances remaining strong in February 2026, increasing by 5%YoY to US$3.3 billion.

OMC offtakes increased by 13%YoY, while auto sales continued growth, rising by 42%YoY during the month.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif assures Mohammad Bin Salman of full solidarity during Jeddah visit, 2) Pakistan raises US$507 million through 5G spectrum auction, 3) GoP raises petrol and diesel prices, 4) RDA inflows rise 12%MoM and 19%YoY to US$242 million in the previous month, and 5) Foreign exchange reserves held SBP rose US$41 million to US$16.34 billion as of March 06, 2026.

Refinery, Leasing Companies and Jute were amongst the top performing sectors, while Woollen, Paper & Board and Transport were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Companies and Foreigners with a net sell of US$16.5 million and US$13.4 million.

Individuals and Banks absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$10.8 million and US$11.7 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: AICL, LOTCHEM, HINOON, PGLC, and YOUW, while laggards included: SAZEW, FCCL, MUREB, GHNI, and DGKC.

AKD Securities anticipates market sentiments to be dictated by developments in the ongoing Middle East conflict. GoP’s efforts to address energy conservation and the ongoing IMF review would also remain key areas of focus.

In the medium term, any de-escalation of Middle East military conflict could trigger a significant market recovery, as the recent correction has made market valuations much more appealing, with forward P/E now at 6.6x.

The brokerage house forecast the benchmark Index to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Top picks of AKD Securities include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

 

PSX benchmark index declines 6.3%WoW

At Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sentiments remained subdued during the week, due to the escalation of war threats, alongside tensions on the Pak–Afghan border. Consequently, the index declined by 10,566 points or 6.3%WoW during the week, closing at 157,496 points on Friday, March 06, 2026.

Market participation slowed during the week, with average daily traded volumes decreasing by 24%WoW to 791 million shares, compared to 1.0 billion shares in the prior week.

Monday witnessed the second-largest single-day drop in the index’s history, plunging by 16,089 points or 9.6%. The sharp fall appeared to be an overreaction, followed by a partial recovery in the subsequent sessions.

Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict resulted in the closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz, triggering a 16.3%WoW surge in the price of the Oil benchmark Arab Light to US$83.1/ bbl. This development raises concerns over energy security, inflationary pressures, and the external account, weighing on overall market sentiment despite Pakistan’s ability to manage the situation.

On the macro front, inflation rose to a 16-month high of 7% in February 2026 amid heightened volatility.

On the external front, trade deficit widened 5%YoY to US$3.0 billion in February 2026.

Cement offtakes recorded a 13%YoY increase in February 2026.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP raises PKR555 billion through T-Bills auction; yields move up, 2) Pakistan refinery secures crude via Fujairah, Red Sea amid Hormuz closure, 3) SBP governor confident about GDP growth and inflation, 4) OGDC strikes major oil, gas discovery in Kohat of daily 3,800 bpd oil and 11.2mmcfd gas, and 5) foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose by US$87 million to US$16.3 billion as of February 27, 2026.

While Refinery remained the sole top performer, laggards included Vanspati & Allied

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Foreigners with a net sell of US$56.0 million and US$22.1 million. Banks and Companies absorbed most of the selling with an aggregate net buy of US$49.5 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: ATRL (up 4.8%WoW), 2) MARI (up 2.0%WoW), 3) KEL (up 2.0%WoW), 4) DHPL (up 1.7%WoW), and 5) HUMNL (up 1.1%WoW), while laggards included: JVDC, KTML, AKBL, SSOM, and PAEL.

According to AKD Securities, market sentiments are likely to be dictated by developments in the ongoing Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, GoP’s ongoing efforts to address energy conservation, the ongoing IMF review, and SBP’s commentary in upcoming MPC meeting on Monday would also remain key areas of investor focus.

In the medium term, any de-escalation of Middle East military conflict could trigger a significant market recovery, as the recent correction has made market valuations much more appealing.

The brokerage house anticipates the benchmark Index to reach 263,800 by end December, 2026.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

PSX benchmark index down 2.9%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued to witness volatility during the week amid persistent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, alongside Pak-Afghan conflict, before staging a recovery on Thursday with a gain of 4,267 points. The benchmark index declined by 5,108 points or 2.9% during the week, closing at 168,062 on Friday, February 27, 2026. Market participation improved during the week, with average daily traded volumes rising by 25%WoW to 1.0 billion shares, from 831 million shares a week ago.

On the macro front, developments remained supportive, with the IMF review team currently in the country. In parallel, the Finance Minister’s remarks regarding the UAE’s US$2 billion loan rollover were also encouraging, providing comfort on the country’s external financing position.

Moreover, SBP’s net FX intervention reached US$11 billion over the last 18 months as of November 2025, while SBP held FX reserves increased by US$16 million to US$16.2 billion as of February 20, 2026, despite the repayment of a US$700 million loan to the China Development Bank.

On the currency front, PKR appreciated by 0.03%WoW against the greenback during the week, closing the week at 279.47 PKR/ US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Trump hikes US global tariff rate to 15%, 2) IMF hints at phased tax cut approach, 3) Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Qatari Emir agree to deepen economic cooperation, 4) Profit repatriation rises to US$1.67 billion in 7MFY26, and 5) CCP clears Abu Dhabi-based Eve Holdings’ acquisition of First Women Bank.

Vanspati & Allied Industries, Fertilizer, and Automobile Parts & Accessories were amongst the top performing sectors, while Tobacco, Synthetic & Rayon, and Property were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Individuals and Foreigners with a net sell of US$18.0 million and US$17.3 million, respectively. Banks absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$33.9 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: SSOM, AKBL, THALL, POL, and BAFL, while laggards included: UNITY, SSGC, TRG, YOUW, and IBFL.

AKD Securities expects the market to recover as domestic and geopolitical uncertainties subside, with market trading at attractive valuations of forward PE of 7.2x and Dividend Yield of 6.6%. The brokerage house anticipates the benchmark Index to reach 263,800 by end December 2o26.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

PSX Benchmark Index Declines 3.6%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile during the week due to persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with domestic political noise. Benchmark index declined by 6,434 points or 3.6% during the week to close at 173,170 on Friday. Market participation also slowed with the start of Ramadan, with average daily traded volumes declined by 22%WoW to 831 million shares, as compared to 1.1 billion shares in prior week.

Developments on the economic front remained encouraging, as the country posted Current Account surplus of US$121 million in January 2026, against a deficit of US$393 million in the same period last year, primarily driven by higher workers’ remittances.

Industrial activity (LSMI) expanded by 4.8%YoY in 1HFY26, led by growth in automobile and textile sectors.

Government notified PKR5/ kWh reduction in industrial tariffs, higher than initially announced by Prime Minister.

Power generation increased by 12%YoY in January 2026, supported by the incremental industrial power tariff package and imposition of gas levy on CPPs.

Fertilizer offtakes declined by 48%YoY during January 2026, mainly due to elevated channel inventory following advance procurement in prior month.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$19 million to US$16.2 billion as of February 13, 2026.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF review mission to arrive Pakistan on 25th of this month, 2) Pakistan's bonds draw biggest foreign inflows in 19 months during January this year, 3) IT exports increase by 19%YoY during January, 4) Textile exports increase by 1.3%YoY during 7MFY26, and 5) RDA inflows crosse US$12 billion mark during February 2026.

Sector-wise, Vanaspati & Allied Industries and Woollen were amongst the top performing sectors, while Refinery, Modarabas, and OMCs were the laggards.

During the first four trading sessions, major selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$26.5 million. Individuals and Banks absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$14.4 million and US$12.1 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: INIL, SSOM, THALL, BNWM, and MUREB, while laggards included: PIOC, TRG, UNITY, PSO, and MEHT.

AKD Securities expect market to recover as domestic and geopolitical uncertainties subside, with market trading at attractive valuations of forward PE of 7.3x and Dividend Yield of 6.4%.

Investors’ sentiments are also expected to improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Top picks of the brokerage house are: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

PSX benchmark index declines 2.5%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained bearish during the week ended on Friday, February 13, 2026, on investors’ skepticism over political developments and recent domestic security incidents. These concerns coupled with delay in the financial close of Reko Diq, weighed on Oil & Gas sector, which recorded the largest index point pullback during the week. Overall, the benchmark index declined by 4,526 points or 2.5%WoW, ending the week at 179,604 points. Market participation strengthened during the week, with average daily trading volume rising by 8%WoW to 1.1 billion shares, from 983 million shares in the prior week.

The pressure was partially eased by supportive macro developments: 1) budget surplus of PKR542 billion or 0.4% of GDP in 1HFY26 as against a deficit of PKR1.5 trillion in the same period last year, 2) a 15%YoY rise remittances sent by oversees Pakistanis to US$3.5 billion in first month of current calendar year, and 3) auto sales reaching a 43-month high during the outgoing month.

Moreover, in MSCI’s February 2026 Index review, ABOT was deleted from FM Index. In addition, SEPL and ZAL were added to the MSCI FM Small Cap Index, while LPL was removed.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$21 million to US$16.2 billion as of February 06, 2026. On the currency front, PKR appreciated by 0.03%WoW against the greenback during the week, closing the week at PKR279.62/ US$.

Other major news flow during the week includes, 1) UAE extends US$2 billion lifeline to Pakistan ahead of IMF talks, 2) Moody’s changes Pakistan banking outlook to stable, 3) US approves US$1.3 billion financing for Reko Diq project, 4) Pakistan, Indonesia take fresh steps to deepen trade and investment ties, and 5) GoP announces to invest US$1 billion in AI by 2030.

Vanspati & Allied Industries, Inv. Banks/ Inv. Cos./ Securities Cos., Pharmaceuticals, Chemical and Transport were amongst the top performing sectors, while Textile Spinning, Oil & Gas Exploration, Jute, Synthetic & Rayon and Technology & Communication were amongst the laggards.

Major buying was recorded by Mutual Funds and Individuals with a net buy of US$29.6 million and US$13.0 million, respectively. Foreigners and Brokers were major sellers with net sell of US$25.9 million and US$15.9 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: AGP, SSOM, ENGROH, SCBPL, and CPHL, while laggards included: UNITY, PPL, PKGP, BOP, and TRG.

AKD Securities expects market to recover as domestic and geopolitical uncertainties subside, and investor focus is likely to remain on upcoming financial results and improving macros. It forecasts the bench mark Index to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PSX benchmark index closes almost flat despite volatility

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced volatility throughout the week amid border tensions with Afghanistan, declining initially before rebounding sharply by 4,900 points in the final session following positive news of a potential ceasefire. It ultimately closed at 161,632 points, down 1% during the week.

Average daily traded volumes contracted by 14.7%WoW to 1,564 million shares despite roll over week as investors remained cautious.

The key highlight was the decision by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to maintain the policy rate at 11%, broadly in line with expectations.

Pakistan-Afghanistan negotiations in Istanbul concluded with a truce under certain conditions, easing geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, authorities assured the IMF of additional PKR200 billion in revenue measures if 1HFY26 tax targets fall short.

In the T-Bill auction, the SBP raised PPR1.0 trillion, with yields falling 11bps on 1-month paper but rising 10bps on 12-month tenor.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP declined by US$16 million to US$14.5 billion as of October 24, 2025.

AKD Securities foresees the momentum in the benchmark index to continue given successful staff-level agreement of the IMF’s second review, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

This outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities.

Top picks of AKD Securities include MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, SYS and INDU.

 

PSX benchmark index declines amid volatility

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed volatility during the week, pressured by weaker than anticipated corporate earnings. The benchmark index declined by 502 points during the week, down 0.3%WoW, to close at 163,304 points.

Market participation also weakened by 17%WoW with average daily traded volume down to 1.8 billion shares as against 2.2 billion shares in the prior week.

On the macroeconomic front, current account for September 2025 reported a surplus of US$110 million. A point worth mentioning is, IT exports for September 2025 were reported at US$366 million, up 25%YoY, marking the highest ever monthly IT exports.

Power generation during September 2025 was reported at 12,592GWh, up 1%YoY, whereas cost of generation declined by 24%YoY.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) were reported at US$14.5 billion as of October 17, 2025.

According to AKD Securities, the momentum at PSX is expected to continue given successful staff-level agreement of the IMF’s second review, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

This outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities, with the KSE-100 trading at a multiple of 7.4x while offering a dividend yield of 6.6%.

The top picks of the brokerage house include: MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, and INDU.

 

PSX benchmark index records nominal increase despite volatility

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PX) ended the week on a positive note, albeit remaining volatile throughout the week, pressured by investor skepticism given uncertainty stemming from heightened geopolitical tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Pakistan secured a staff-level agreement with IMF in its second review for the US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility program and first review of Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The benchmark index gained 708 points during the week, witnessing it’s second highest single-day gain of 7,033 points on Tuesday, up 0.4%WoW, to close at 163,806 level.

Market participation strengthened by 36%WoW with average daily traded volume reported at 2.2 billion shares, as compared to 1.6 billion shares a week ago.

On the macroeconomic front, petroleum imports for September 2025 were reported at US$1.2 billion, down 11%YoY.

Textiles and clothing exports for September 2025 were recorded at US$1.6 billion, down 2%YoY.

Roshan Digital Accounts inflows for September 2025 were recorded at US$196 million, up 17%YoY

LSM output increased by 0.5%YoY during August 2025.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$21 million to US$14.4 billion as of October 10, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan and Saudi Arabia agreed to explore new trade, investment avenues, 2) Shehbaz and COAS to visit Saudi Arabia from October 26, 3) Pakistan and Vietnam begin PTA talks to expand trade, investment, 4) Nepra gives the go-ahead to effect CTBCM, and 5) Petrol and diesel prices slashed.

Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Commercial Banks, INV.Banks/ INV.Cos/ Securities Cos, Power Generation & Distribution and Paper & Board were amongst the top performing sectors, while Close-end Mutual Funds, Leasing Companies, Modarabas, Textile Weaving and Leather & Tanneries were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Insurance aggregating to US$36.5 million, which was mostly absorbed by Companies recording net buy of US$30.3 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PSEL, BOP, SSOM, PSX, and LOTCHEM, while laggards included: GADT, PKGP, PABC, and JVDC.

According to AKD Securities, believes the bullish momentum o continue given successful staff-level agreement of the IMF’s second review, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the US and Saudi Arabia.

The outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities, offering attractive dividend yield.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, and INDU.

 

PSX benchmark index declines 3.49%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure during the week, given investor skepticism amid political uncertainty stemming from tensions between the government and its coalition allies. The benchmark index declined by 5,891 points or 3.49%WoW, to close at 163,098 points on Friday, October 10, 2025. To read details click https://shkazmipk.com/weekly-stock-market-report-81/

PSX benchmark index declines 0.59%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile during the week due to recent flooding in KPK and Punjab, coupled with heightened political noise. As a result, the benchmark index lost 870 points, down 0.59%WoW, to close at 148,617 points. Nonetheless, a partial recovery was seen in Friday’s session, with the index rebounding by 1,274 points on the back of robust corporate earnings, particularly from the cement sector.

Market participation improved, with average daily traded volume increasing by 13.7%WoW to 899 million shares, up from 790 million shares a week ago.

Net foreign exchange interventions by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) was reported at US$7.2 billion during 11MFY25.

SBP’s profit during FY25 fell by 27%YoY to PKR2.5 trillion given decline in interest rates. However, dividend payout to federal government surged to PKR2.7 trillion during the period.

SBP’s held gold reserves increased to US$6.8 billion, up 41%YoY in FY25.

SBP held foreign exchange reserves increased by US$18 million, closing the week at US$14.3 billion as of August 22, 2025.

PKR appreciated by 0.05%WoW against the greenback during the week, closing the week at PKR281.77/US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan gets 19% tariff after US drives a hard bargain, 2) SBP enhances housing finance limit for microfinance borrowers to PKR5 million, 3) ExxonMobil likely to come back for offshore venture, 4) Pakistan set to initiate dialogue with Qatar on LNG supplies, and 5) Budget deficit drops to 5.4% in FY25 from 6.8% for the same period last year.

Jute, Property, Cement, Cable & Electrical Goods, and Glass & Ceramics were amongst the top performers, while Woollen, Leather & Tanneries, Textile Spinning, Insurance, and Pharmaceuticals were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Foreigners and Banks/DFIs with a net sell of US$23.4 million. Mutual Funds and Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$27.8 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PIBTL , SAZEW, DGKC, UPFL, and PAEL, while laggards included: AGP, BAHL, FABL, SRVI, and AIRLINK.

According to AKD Securities, PSX is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with further developments over circular debt expected to drive the market along with upcoming corporate results remaining in the limelight.

The benchmark is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, with a target of 165,215 points by end December 2025, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

The top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MCB, INDU, and SYS.

PSX benchmark index up 2.0%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) was supported by strong corporate earnings and Moody’s upgrade of deposit ratings for Pakistani banks, while demonstrating weakness later on in the week due to political noise. The benchmark index touched an all-time high of 151,262 points, but closed the week at 149,493 points, up 2.0%WoW.

Market participation rose 31%WoW to 790 million shares, from 606 million shares a week ago.

On the macroeconomic front, Pakistan posted a current account deficit of US$254 million as compared to a deficit of US$348 million during the same period last year.

IT exports for July 2025 increased by 24%YoY to US$354 million, from US$286 million during the same period last year.

LSM index witnessed an increase of 4.1%YoY in June 2025, resulting in FY25 declining by 0.7%YoY.

As regards sectoral developments, urea fertilizer offtakes moderated by 1%YoY during July 2025, mainly due to weak farm economics and higher phosphate prices.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$13 million to US$14.3 billion as of August 15, 2025. As a result, PKR appreciated for the 5th consecutive week against the greenback.

Other major news inflows during the week included: 1) ADB to promises to provide US$410 million package for Reko Diq copper and gold mines, 2) Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi arrives in Islamabad on three-day visit, 3) July 2025 FDI rises 7%YoY to US$208 million, 4) Tehran agrees raising trade with Pakistan to US$10 billion, and 5) GoP slashes high-speed diesel while leaving petrol price unchanged.

REITs, Leather & Tanneries, and Transport were amongst the top performing sectors, while Vanaspati & allied industries, Close-end Mutual funds, and Chemical sectors among the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Foreigners and Banks/DFIs with a net sell of US$21.6 million. Mutual Funds and Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$24.7 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: KOHC, SEARL, BAHL, THALL, and MUGHAL, while the laggards included: PGLC, PKGP, HUMNL, YOUW, and NESTLE.

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, PSX is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with further developments over circular debt expected to drive the market along with upcoming corporate results remaining in the limelight.

The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, with a target of 165,215 points by end December 2025, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MCB, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.

Pakistan: Central bank cuts policy rate by 100bps

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday January 27, 2025 in its meeting reduced the benchmark policy rate by 100bps to 12.00%.

The MPC stressed adopting a cautious approach noting that core inflation remains elevated, with high frequency indicators showing gradual improvement. The impact of 1,000bps reduction in the policy rate since June 2024 will continue to unfold, driving growth.

The committee also added that 1QFY25 GDP growth remained below expectations.

Tax collection during 1HFY25 also remained below the target.

Global oil prices remained volatile and that the global economic policy environment has become more uncertain.

Going forward, economic activity is expected to gain more traction with GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 2.5 to 3.5%.

Headline inflation for FY25 is now expected to average between 5.5 to 7.5%, subject to risks from volatile commodity prices, adjustment to energy prices, volatile food prices and impact of revenue measures.

On the fiscal front achieving the target for primary surplus would be challenging, while overall deficit is likely to come close to the target.

Outlook for the current account has improved considerably due to robust remittances. The current account balance for FY25 is anticipated to swing between a surplus and a deficit of 0.5% of GDP.

 

PSX witnesses subdued activities

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a marginally subdued week, with authorities proposing amendments to tax bill including increased restrictions on non-tax filers, barring them from the purchase of securities, investment in mutual funds, properties and even suspending their bank accounts. National Assembly panel is currently reviewing the proposals.

Benchmark KSE-100 index declined by 392 points, down 0.3%WoW to close at 114,880 points on Friday, January 24, 2025. However, trading volumes grew as compared to last week, reaching 699 million shares, up 25%WoW.

Several important data points came in during the week, including a Current Account Surplus of US$582 million for December 2024, taking cumulative 1HFY25 balance to US$1.21 billion.

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised PKR297 billion through T-Bills auction during the week, with 12-month yields dropping to 11.39%, down 41bps.

IMF revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3% and for 2026 to 4%, slightly downwards from previous projection.

On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by SBP declined by US$276 million to US$11.5 billion. PKR weakened marginally against the greenback to close at PKR278.75 to a US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP agrees terms for US$1 billion loan with 2 Middle Eastern banks, 2) Saudi firm agrees to invest up to US$1 billion in Reko Diq project, 3) Foreigners withdraw US$38.5 million from T-Bills by January 10, 4) Pakistan to float US$200 million panda bonds in June, 5) World Bank to lend US$20 billion to Pakistan, 6) Petrol price increases, and 7) Urea sales increases by 58%YoY during CY24 to 6.6 million tons.

Fertilizer, Inv. Banks, and Textile weaving were amongst the top performing sectors, while E&P, Jute, & transport sectors were among the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Banks at US$14.1 million. Foreigners and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$11 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: FCCL, KTML, CNERGY, LOTCHEM, and MLCF, while laggards included: MARI, NRL, SAZEW, PGLC, and PIBTL.

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities, PSX is expected to remain on positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

The upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled on June 27, will remain a key focus.

Over the medium term, the KSE-100 index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum throughout CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.

 

 

PSX Index closes the week at the historic high

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week ended on November 29, 2024. This led to the KSE-100 index registering its highest ever intra-day gains of 4,695 points on Wednesday, and closing at a record high of 101,357 points on Friday, marking an increase of 3.6%WoW.

The volatility stemmed from acceleration in political instability amid opposition party reaching to protest in the country’s Capital, creating uncertainty amongst the investor, leading to a major fall in benchmark index, marking a decrease of 3,506 points on Tuesday. However, market regained its momentum on Wednesday after the protestors started to back off from Islamabad and the momentum was further fueled by a circular from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), removing the MDR requirements on deposits held by Commercial banks of financial institutions and public sector enterprises. This led to the KSE-100 index registering its highest ever intra-day gains of 4,695 points on Wednesday, and closing at a record high of 101,357 points on Friday, marking an increase of 3.6%WoW.

Major contributing sectors to this rally were commercial banks, contributing 1,675 points, followed by Technology & Communication with 349 points, and Oil & Gas Exploration, which added 283 points during the week. However, with another circular from the SBP revising its guidelines for profit sharing on saving deposits for Islamic Banking Institutions (IBIs), which resulted in MEBL eroding 439 points during the week.

Secondary market yields on the 6-month bill decreased to 12.12%, dropping to the lowest levels seen in over 2.5 years.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$131 million WoW, ending the week at US$11.4 billion as of November 22, 2024.

Average daily trading volume remained higher, up by 39.8%WoW, rising to 1.4 billion shares, as compared to 990.7 million shares traded a week ago.

PKR witnessed a meagre depreciation of 0.1% against the greenback during the week to close at 278.05PKR/US$.

Other major news flow during the week included, 1) SBP receives US$500 million from ADB under climate resilience program, 2) IT Ministry released incentive plan for semiconductor industry, 3) Pakistan, Belarus announced to boost ties with 8 MoUs, and 4) the GoP formed a body to oversee Reko Diq deal.

Property, Leather & Tanneries, Oil & Gas Marketing Companies, Technology & Communication and Exchange Traded Funds were amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute, Woollen, Transport, Automobile Assembler & INV.Banks/ INV.Cos/ Securities Cos. were amongst the worst performers.

Major selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$15.1 million. Insurance Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$10.6 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: BOP, AKBL, HBL, JVDC, and MEHT, while laggards included: MEBL, FABL, PSEL, SAZEW, and GHGL.

Continuation of monetary easing due to disinflationary environment and improving macroeconomic environment would make investment in equities more appealing, currently trading at P/E of 4.9x and DY of 10.2%.

Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive.

AKD Securities recommends sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals.

The top picks of the brokerage house include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

 

PSX daily trading volume up 30.6%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) started the week on a strong note, with KSE-100 index reaching its highest-ever closing at 90,864 points on Tuesday, closing the week ended on November 01. 2024 at 90,859, up by 0.96%WoW. Average daily traded volume was up 30.6%WoW to 649.2 million shares, from 497.1 million shares traded a week ago.

The momentum was fueled by anticipated continuation of monetary easing and the country reporting its first-ever quarterly budget surplus in over 20 years of PKR1.7 trillion during 1QFY25, coupled with strong corporate results.

Regrettably, Pakistan missed two of the IMF's quarterly targets: tax collection marking a shortfall of PKR90 billion, and cash surplus for the provinces, marking a shortfall of PKR182 billion.

CPI for the month was reported at 7.2%YoY, with real interest rate comfortably above 10% at current policy rate levels.

Trade deficit for October 2024 was reported at US$1.4 billion, with exports for the month at US$2.97 billion, up 4.9%MoM.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$116 million WoW at US$11.15 billion as of October 25, 2024.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at PKR277.7 to a US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Prime Minister visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar, 2) Saudi Arabia likely to finalize US$1.2 billion oil facility by end December this year, 3) Germany seeks COAS help over IPP deal termination, 4) MoUs signed with Pakistan increased to 34 and 5) T-Bills yields slip by 64-140bps ahead of inflation data.

Pharmaceutical, Wollen, and Leasing Companies were amongst the top performing sectors, while Inv.Banks/ Inv.Cos/ Securities Companies, Leather & Tanneries, and Engineering were amongst the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Banks/DFI with a net sell of US$13.0 million. Insurance and Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with an aggregate net buy of US$12.3 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: GLAXO, CHCC, NCPL, SYS, and KAPCO, while top laggards included: KOSM, NBP, PKGS, MUGHAL, and SRVI.

Market is expected to remain positive, with primary focus on the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where an anticipated rate cut could further bolster market momentum.

Despite the recent rally, valuations remain attractive, with the market trading at a P/E of 4.0x and offering a dividend yield of 11.4%.

AKD Securities recommend focusing on sectors that stand to benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yield stocks that are likely to re-rate as yields converge with fixed-income returns.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, MCB, UBL, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

 

 

PSX benchmark index inches closer to 90,000

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed bullish sentiments throughout the week ended on October 25, 2024. The benchmark KSE-100 index recorded its highest-ever closing, just shy of the 90,000 mark ‑ closing at 89,994 points, up by 5.6%WoW.

This marked the highest weekly return in 27 weeks and 47th highest weekly return since the index's inception.

More importantly, KSE30 index also reached all-time high at 28,395 points.

The week started with positive momentum buoyed by settlement of political noise following the passage of stalled 26th Constitutional Amendment.

The optimism consolidated with swing of corporate result announcements and favorable economic developments.

According to AKD Securities, the rally was broad-based, with 80 out of 100 companies delivering positive returns.

Leading sectors were Fertilizer, Cement, and Banks, primarily due to strong annual growth in results. On the macro front, current account posted a surplus for the second consecutive month at US$115 million for September 2024.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$18 million to US$11.0 billion as of October 18, 2024.

Market participation also improved significantly, with average daily traded volume rising by 23%WoW to 532 million shares from 432 million shares a week ago.

The PKR remained stable against the greenback, closing the week at 277.6 to a US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: IT exports surged 42%YoY in September 2024, 2) Banking sector deposits were up by 19%YoY to PKR31.3 trillion at end September 2024, 3) Sales tax on tractors hiked to 14% from 10%, 4) Loans to private sector were up 4.9% to PKR8.4 trillion at end September 2024, and 5) Nepra approves KE's generation tariff with key adjustments.

Cement, Refinery, and Mutual Funds were amongst the top performers, while Modarabas, Textile composites, and Vanaspati & allied industries were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$16.4 million. Mutual Funds and other organizations absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$20.4 million.

Top performing scripts of the week were: KOHC,CHCC, AICL, KEL, and ATRL, while laggards included: ILP, PIBTL, LOTCHEM, IBFL, and NESTLE.

Market is expected to remain positive, with primary focus on the upcoming MPC meeting, where an anticipated rate cut could further bolster market momentum.

Despite the recent rally, valuations remain attractive, with the market trading at a P/E of 4.0x and offering a dividend yield of 11.2%.

AKD Securities recommends focusing on sectors that stand to benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yield stocks that are likely to re-rate as yields converge with fixed-income returns.

Top picks include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, UBL, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

PSX witnesses 16.5%WoW decline in average daily trading volume

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile during the week, with the benchmark index losing 233 points or 0.3WoW to close at 85,250 points on Friday, October 18, 2024.

Commercial Banks and Power sectors were the primary drags on the index, as concerns over additional ADR-based taxation to weigh on banks’ expected profitability for the last quarter, while continued government scrutiny on IPPs added pressure to the Power sector.

Fertilizer sector also remained laggard due to lower than expected payouts by EFERT.

On the political front, the successful conclusion of the SCO summit was a positive development. However, heightened political noise towards the weekend kept market sentiments subdued.

Textiles and food exports remained elevated.

Foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) crossed the US$11 billion mark for the first time in last two and half years, as of October 11, 2024.

In the T-Bills auction held on Wednesday, GoP raised PKR716 billion as against a target of PKR400 billion, with 3 and 6 month yields falling to 15.3% and 14.3%, respectively.

In its recent fortnightly review, GoP hiked diesel prices by PKR5/litre, while keeping petrol prices unchanged.

Market participation plunged by 16.5%WoW, with average daily traded volume dropping to 432 million shares from 518 million shares in the earlier week.

On the currency front, the PKR remained largely stable against the greenback, closing the week at PKR277.6 to a greenback.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) GoP pays off PKR1.2 trillion domestic debt in first quarter of the current financial year, 2) Roshan Digital Accounts surpass US$8.749 billion in remittances, 3) LSM output rises by 4.68MoM in August, and 4) Urea off takes decline by 35YoY in September.

Tobacco, Close-end Mutual Funds, and Engineering were amongst the top performing sectors. Woollen, Property, and Transport were amongst the worst performers.

Major selling was led by Banks, with a total outflow of US$16.6 million, primarily due to NBP offloading its entire stake in AGL to FFC. Foreigner followed with net sell of US$11.1 million.

Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$25.8 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: ATRL, PAKT, HGFA, FCEPL, and JDWS, while laggards included: NPL, JVDC, BNWM, KAPCO, and PIOC.

Market is expected to remain positive going forward, supported by declining interest rates, anticipated to continue channeling investment flows into equities.

Additionally, with the ongoing earnings season, corporate results would stay in focus.

Despite the recent upward trend, the market remains attractively valued, currently trading at a P/E of 3.7x with a dividend yield of 11.9%.

AKD Securities proposes focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high dividend yield stocks, likely to re-rate as yields converge with fixed income returns. Top picks include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, UBL, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

PSX daily trading volume declines 17%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week, with the benchmark index losing 782 points or 0.95%WoW to close at 81,292 points on Friday, September 27, 2024.

Anticipation of the IMF’s board approval scheduled for September 25, briefly improved investors’ sentiment on Wednesday. However, the positive sentiments were overshadowed by continuation of foreign selling after rebalancing of FTSE Russell, political noise, and concerns regarding the potential termination of contracts with certain IPPs, inducing selling pressure in power sector heavyweights.

Consequently, power generation and distribution sector contributed the significant decline, eroding 800 points from the index during the week.

The FBR is expected to post a shortfall of PKR275 billion in 1QFY25, according to the news flows. In efforts to increase tax revenue, GoP plans to abolish non-filer status and take strict measures against tax frauds.

Average daily trading volumes declined by 17.1%WoW to 389.35 million shares, as compared to 469.45 million shares traded a week ago.

Foreign exchange reserves by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$24 million to US$9.53 billion as of September 20, 2024.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at 277.64 to US$.

Other major news inflow during the week included: 1) IMF distanced itself from Pakistan's decision to arrange a US$600 million commercial loan at 11% interest rate, 2) US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu praises 'deeper' ties with Shehbaz government, 3) GoP borrowing surged to record high, 4) Farmers to get 251 green tractors and 5) ADB may approve 3rd-party guarantee in case of Reko Diq.

Transport, Fertilizer, Inv. Banks/ INV. Cos/ Securities Cos., Leather & Tanneries and Pharmaceuticals were amongst the top performers, Power generation & Distribution, Leasing companies, Textile spinning, Engineering and Jute were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$12.44 million, mostly absorbed by Mutual Funds with a net buy of US$16.21 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: FFC, GLAXO, AKBL, FFBL, and THALL, while the laggards included: HUBC, PGLC, SML, MARI, and KEL.

Following the approval of the IMF’s executive board and the subsequent receipt of the first tranche of US$1.02 billion, the market sentiments are poised to improve.

Additionally, easing inflation with September 2024 CPI expected at 7.0%YoY, coupled with ongoing monetary easing, is expected to keep equities in focus.

AKD Securities recommends sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yielding stocks, which are expected to rerate as yields align with fixed income returns.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index declines 2.61%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced volatility throughout the week ended on July 29, 2024, heavily influenced by political noise. The benchmark index lost 2,088 points 0r 2.61%WoW at close at 78,029 points.

With Pakistan's agenda yet to be included in the IMF board meeting, authorities are focusing on fulfilling other external financing requirements, with efforts including visit to China for possible debt rescheduling, especially of power producers.

The Finance Minister engaged with global rating agencies, Fitch and Moody's, aiming for a possible improvement in the country's credit rating to facilitate capital raising through external sources.

In the last T-Bills auction, yields dropped by 30-56 bps, indicating market expectations of a 50-100bps cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Monday. However, experts anticipate the MPC to maintain the status quo due to the re-emergence of strong inflationary pressures from food supply disruptions and recently announced revenue measures in the FY25 budget.

The July 2024 inflation is expected to clock in at 10.96%YoY as compared to 12.57%YoY in the preceding month. On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank declined by US$397 million to US$9.03 billion as at July 19, 2024.

With the said volatility in market, participation decreased by 27.3%WoW, with the average daily traded volume falling to 337 million shares, from 464 million shares a week ago.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained flat against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at 278.3/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included:1) Forex reserves declined by US$369 millio, 2) Income estimates slashed to PKR9.1 trillion, 3) Auto financing registered downward trend for second straight year and 4) GoP announced to pull out of fuel pricing process, giving OMCs free hand.

Leasing, Vanaspati & allied industries and Textile spinning were amongst the top performers, while ETF’s, Inv. Banks/ cos., and Jute were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by mutual funds with a net sell of US$5.0 million. Foreigners and insurance co. absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$4.6 million and US$4.4 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PAKT, GADT, JVDC, FFBL and LCI, while laggards included: NCPL, NPL, KAPCO, INIL and FCEPL.

Going forward, market’s focus will primarily be on the MPC meeting scheduled for Monday, with any rate cut to boost investor’s confidence and draw increased attention to the cyclical sector.

Additionally, the anticipated approval from the IMF executive board next month is likely to support bullish momentum.

Sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms would remain in the limelight.