Average daily traded volume remained low, down by 18.2%WoW, to
455.8 million shares as compared to 557.3 million shares traded a week ago.
Commercial banks were key contributors to the market’s rally, driven by stronger-than-expected
earnings from UBL.
Moreover, Fitch upgraded Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from
‘CCC+’, amid expectations that continuation of stable economic policies will
persist in supporting accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and contain
external funding needs.
Alongside, news that the government and commercial banks
have signed a term sheet for PKR1.2 trillion, as part of efforts to eliminate
circular debt.
On the macroeconomic front, remittances by overseas Pakistanis
for March 2025 touched a record high of US$4.1 billion, taking the current
account surplus to US$1.2 billion —the highest monthly surplus on record.
Power generation in March 2025 was reported at 8,411GWh, up
5%YoY.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pak-IMF
technical-level talks to commence next week, 2) Budget to offer relief for
salaried class, 3) IT exports surge to US$2.8 billion in 9MFY25, 4) Kuwait
extends oil credit facility for two years, and 5) Urea and DAP sales drop by
54%YoY each during March 2025.
Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Leasing Companies, and
Jute were amongst the top performing sectors, while, Woollen, Synthetic &
Rayon, and Tobacco were amongst the laggards.
Major selling was recorded by Insurance Companies with a net
sell of US$35.9 million. Individuals and Other Organizations absorbed most of
the selling with a net buy of US$30.9 million.
Top performing scrips of the week were: PGLC, UBL, ATLH,
SAZEW, and KTML, while laggards included EPCL, AGL, BNWM, IBFL, and HALEON.
Lower oil prices and favorable standing among exporting peers
amid reciprocal tariffs are likely to support the economy and strengthen the
outlook for a return to single-digit interest rates in CY25.
According to AKD Securities, the KSE-100 index is
anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, with a target of over
165,000 points by end December 2025. This expectation is primarily based of
strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash
flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and
structural reforms.
Top picks of the brokerage house include, OGDC, PPL, PSO,
FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.
