PSX benchmark index declines by 0.5%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained range bound during the week, as uncertainty over the upcoming budget moderated investor confidence built on Pak-India ceasefire and the IMF agreement. The benchmark index declined by 546 points or 0.5%WoW to close at 119,103 points on Friday.

Market participation also weakened, with average daily traded volumes falling by 25%WoW to 492 million shares, down from 660 million shares a week ago.

As regards FY26 Federal budget, revenue target is expected to rise to PKR14.3 trillion from FY25 target of PKR12.3tn. A key highlight includes tariff rationalization; capping the highest tariff at 15%, removing Additional Customs Duty (ACD), and reducing Regulatory Duty by 80% till FY30.

The National Accounts Committee approved the provisional GDP growth at 2.68%YoY for FY25. Consequently, Pakistan's economy has expanded to US$411 billion, making it the 40th largest in the world and pushing per capita income to a record US$1,824.

In its post–first review report, IMF acknowledged that Pakistan has met all quantitative performance criteria, most indicative targets, and several structural benchmarks.

IMF also revised down GDP growth and current account deficit forecasts and updated the timelines of structural benchmarks along with introducing new ones for the coming year. Furthermore, IMF endorsed the GoP plan to eliminate the power sector's circular debt by FY31.

On the currency front, PKR depreciated by 0.11%WoW to close at PKR281.97/US$. Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$1.0 billion to a 17-week high of US$11.4 billion.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF projects external debt to rise to US$126.7 billion by next financial year, 2) Profit repatriation jumps 115%YoY in last month, 3) During Q3FY25 Pakistan economy posts 2.4%YoY growth, and 4) Power generation surges 22%YoY in April 2025.

Woolen, Transport, and Inv Banks/ Cos & Securities Cos were amongst the top performers, while Sugar & Allied Industries, Cement, and Cable & Electrical Goods reported remained laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds, other organizations, and Companies with a net sell of US$10.1 million, US$4.1 million, and US$2.9 million respectively. Individuals and Insurance absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$13.1 million and US$7.5 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: POML, RMPL, GADT, BNWM, and PKGP, while laggards included:  HUMNL, NATF, LUCK, AVN, and MARI.

According to AKD Securities, the market is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with developments around the upcoming federal budget likely to guide short-term sentiment. The KSE100 is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

The top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.