The fall of Assad, an implacable foe of Israel who
turned Syria into a staging ground for Iranian threats and weapons transfers to
Hezbollah, is not something Israel would lament. With Syrian rebel forces
rapidly advancing south toward Damascus after already taking Aleppo and
Hama, the ground in Syria is shifting.
This shift is due in no small measure to the twin blows
Israel dealt Hezbollah and Iran since the launch of Operation Northern
Arrows in mid-September, aimed at returning displaced Israeli residents to
their homes along the northern border.
In its war in Lebanon, Israel decapitated Hezbollah’s
leadership, killed and wounded thousands of its fighters, and significantly
degraded its missile and rocket capabilities. Hezbollah, which once fought in
Syria to prop up the dictatorial regime of President Bashar al-Assad, is in no
position to help Assad today as his regime has crumbled.
Iran also suffered blows at the hands of Israel – most
notably the destruction of much of its air defense network and critical missile
manufacturing infrastructure during Jerusalem’s retaliatory raid on October 26.
With Hezbollah severely weakened and Hamas in Gaza also no
longer an effective proxy, Iran – which has made an art form of sending others
to be killed to further its own interests – finds itself unable to provide
Assad with the same level of assistance it once did. It also struggles to
project the same regional power if wielded just a few months ago.
Assad’s other ally, Russia, whose intervention in the civil
war in 2015 tipped the scales in his favor, is also unable to give Assad what
it did in the past, preoccupied and overextended with its own war in Ukraine.
With Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia weakened – two of them due
to Israeli action – Syrian rebels seized the opportunity to advance, launching
their offensive on the same day a ceasefire was implemented in Lebanon.
Hezbollah, weary and depleted, was in no position to counter the rebel advance.
The fall of Assad, an implacable foe of Israel who turned
Syria into a staging ground for Iranian threats and weapons transfers to
Hezbollah, is not something Israel would lament. However, the composition of
the rebel forces threatening Assad’s regime is not an alliance that the Jewish
state can applaud.
They are led by Sunni jihadists recently aligned with
al-Qaeda and who remain on America’s list of terrorist organizations and also
include Turkish-backed Islamists.
Israel has a clear interest in seeing Syria removed from
Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” ending its role as a host for Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives and Iranian-sponsored militias and as a
potential launch-pad for attacks against Israel.
Syria under Assad was a crucial pillar of Hezbollah’s
strength in Lebanon, serving as the main conduit for smuggling missiles and
advanced weaponry into the country. If Syria is taken out of the equation,
Hezbollah – already reeling from Israel’s onslaught – will face even greater
difficulties rebuilding.
This would be welcome news for many in Lebanon seeking
freedom from Hezbollah and Iran’s stranglehold. One significant side effect of
Assad’s fall could be a chance for the Lebanese to finally regain control of
their own country.
While these developments are largely positive for Israel,
they come with complications. Jerusalem has no interest in seeing its neighbor
to the northeast taken over by Sunni jihadists of the al-Qaeda ilk or
Turkish-backed Islamists. Israel’s experience with such groups – like Hamas in
Gaza – has been anything but encouraging.
What happens in Syria will most definitely have an impact on
Israel in the future that is why Jerusalem must keep a vigilant eye there,
sending messages to all concerned that there are two developments it will not
tolerate. The first is chemical weapons depots falling into the hands of
jihadist or Islamist rebels, and the second is the mass deployment of Iranian
troops into the country.
Those are redlines that, if crossed, would severely
compromise Israel’s national security and would necessitate immediate Israeli
action to prevent.
Beyond these redlines, Israel can do little to positively
impact developments inside Syria, other than working behind the scenes with the
US to establish channels with more moderate elements in the opposition, hoping
they will emerge as a constructive force in shaping Syria’s future.
Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post
