Hezbollah warns of regional war if Gaza bombing goes on

The second in command of Hezbollah — the powerful Iranian backed militia in Lebanon — has said Israel’s killing of civilians in Gaza risks wider war in the Middle East.

Sheikh Naim Qassem told the BBC that very serious and very dangerous developments could occur in the region, and no-one would be able to stop the repercussions.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader was speaking in an interview in Beirut, as the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said more than 10,000 people had been killed there.

“The danger is real,” he said, “because Israel is increasing its aggression against civilians and killing more women and children. Is it possible for this to continue and increase, without bringing real danger to the region? I think not.”

He insisted any escalation would be linked to Israel’s actions. “Every possibility has a response,” he said. Hezbollah, “the Party of God” has plenty of possibilities.

The Shia group — classed as a terrorist organization by the UK, US and the Arab League — is the largest political and military force in Lebanon.

So far its response to the war in Gaza has involved amplifying its warnings, but carefully calibrating its actions.

When an Israeli strike killed a woman and three children in southern Lebanon on Sunday, Hezbollah used Grad rockets for the first time in the conflict, killing an Israeli civilian.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has threatened that every civilian death in Lebanon will reap another across the border. But notably, he has not threatened Israel with all-out war

While insisting that all options are on the table the militant group has confined itself to cross-border attacks, hitting mainly military targets.

More than 60 of its fighters have been killed, but it has plenty more battle-hardened supporters to replace them. One fighter buried in Beirut this week was the fifth member of his family to die for Hezbollah, going back generations.

Throughout our interview the organization’s deputy leader tried to portray Hezbollah as a defensive organization — though it is committed to Israel’s destruction and sparked a war with Israel in 2006 by abducting two of its soldiers in a cross-border raid.

Sheikh Qassem claimed Israel “initiated the aggression against Gaza in a hideous way”.

When the BBC pointed out that it was Hamas that had attacked Israel on October 07, he defended the attacks as an inevitable response to Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands.

He repeated the claim that Israeli forces, not Hamas, killed many Israeli civilians. But what of the helmet cameras — worn by the Hamas militants themselves — showing them on a killing spree?

He parried the question. “Why don’t we look at what Israel has done inside Gaza,” he said. “They kill civilians and demolish homes.”

He called the Hamas attacks a great result for the Palestinian resistance and denied they had backfired. What about the 10,000 Gazans who have been killed since then? “The massacres committed by Israel are mobilizing the Palestinians more and more to cling to their land,” he replied.

He conceded that Iran supports and finances Hezbollah but claimed it did not give the orders. But experts say it is Tehran that calls the shots and will decide whether or not to engage in all-out war.

And if Israeli forces have to wage war on a second front with Hezbollah, they will be facing an enemy with more arms than most countries. The militant group puts Hamas in the shade, with an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles.

It has up to 60,000 fighters, including special forces, regular fighters, and reserves, according to Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based defense and security consultant, who has studied Hezbollah for decades.

Back in 2006 the group fought Israel to a standstill, but Lebanon had a lot more dead. More than 1,000 of its people were killed, most of them civilians, and whole neighborhoods were flattened in Hezbollah strongholds. Israel lost 121 soldiers and 44 civilians.

Lebanon has careened from crisis to crisis since then — with the devastating explosion in Beirut port in 2020, the collapse of the economy, and the disintegration of the political system. Small wonder few here have an appetite for war.

Many worry that Hezbollah’s cross-border attacks could drag this country into a war it cannot afford. Sheikh Qassem is unapologetic. “It’s the right of any Lebanese to be afraid of war,” he said. “That’s normal. Nobody likes war. Tell the Israeli entity to stop the aggression, so the battles do not expand.”

There could be many shades of escalation ahead — short of all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel. But if it comes it will bring devastation all round, says Blanford.

“It’s going to make what’s happening in Gaza look like a walk in the park,” he told the BBC.

“Israel will be in lockdown for the duration of the conflict. Most of its population will have to remain in bomb shelters,” he said.

“There would be no civil aviation or maritime traffic. Hezbollah’s larger guided missiles could hit military targets across the country.”

As for Lebanon, he said Israel would reduce it to “a car park”.

For now, Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran are all holding back, old enemies assessing new realities.

That doesn’t mean all-out war won’t happen — by miscalculation if not by design.

This is a dangerous new chapter in a blood-soaked region. After October 07, the only certainties appear to be more anguish, death, and destruction.

Hezbollah, Israel exchange fire at Lebanese border

Lebanon's Hezbollah said on Thursday it mounted multiple strikes on Israeli army positions including its first using explosive drones, and Israel launched air strikes on southern Lebanon in a sharp escalation of violence.

The Israeli army said it responded to launches from Lebanon toward Israel with air strikes on Hezbollah targets, along with tank and artillery fire.

Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with Israeli forces across the Israeli-Lebanese border since the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel went to war on October 07, in the deadliest escalation at the frontier since a 2006 war.

Lebanon's National News Agency on Thursday said four people were killed near the southern village of Hula during Israeli shelling.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is due on Friday to deliver his first speech since the war began.

The group said in a statement its fighters launched 19 simultaneous strikes on Israeli army positions in Israel using guided missiles, artillery and other weapons.

Hezbollah said two drones packed with explosives struck an Israeli army command position in the disputed Shebaa Farms area at the border.

Israeli shelling struck the outskirts of Khiyam town some 6 km (3.75 miles) from the border, slightly injuring one civilian, the town's mayor, Ali Rashed, told Reuters. "His house caught fire and people are putting it out," he said by phone.

"The intensity of the shelling was higher than previous days. The shelling and the counter shelling were more than any previous level and included the whole area," he said.

Lebanon's National News Agency reported Israeli shells hit various areas of the south along the border.

Hezbollah's attack using explosive drones came a few days after the group said for the first time it had used a surface-to-air missile against an Israeli drone.

Israel has held the Shebaa Farms, a 15-square-mile (39-square-km) area of land, since the 1967 Middle East war. Both Syria and Lebanon claim the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese.

 

 

Developing countries facing debt problem

According to Reuters, the persistent and damaging debt problems gripping a number of developing nations will be a core topic during the G20 summit in Delhi next month. Following is the recap of economies in the countries currently facing problems:

ZAMBIA

Zambia was the first African country to default during the COVID-19 pandemic and after a long-awaited burst of progress in recent months finally looks to be closing in on a repair plan.

In June, it clinched a US$6.3 billion debt rework deal with the Paris Club creditor nations and its other big bilateral lender China. The details are still being worked on, but the government also hopes to reach a deal in the coming months with the international funds that hold its unpaid sovereign bonds.

The progress has also been cheered as a success for the struggling G20 Common Framework initiative, which was set up during the pandemic to try to streamline debt restructurings but has been hard to make work in practice.

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka announced a debt overhaul plan at the end of June and has continued to make progress since, albeit not everywhere.

Nearly all holders of its domestic, dollar-denominated Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) agreed to exchange their bonds into five new Sri Lankan rupee-dominated notes that will mature between 2025 and 2033.

Another part of the domestic debt plan has faced delays, though, with a key deadline on a Treasury bond exchange delayed three times and now set for Septemer 11, 2023.

Central bank chief Nandalal Weerasinghe has said the country's big foreign creditors such as India and China are awaiting the conclusion of the domestic debt operation before continuing discussions.

He said negotiations will be held in parallel with the first review of its US$2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program due from 14-27 September. Failure to complete the domestic debt overhaul by then could result in delays both in terms of IMF disbursements and talks with creditors.

GHANA

Ghana defaulted on most of its external debt at the end of last year. It is the fourth country to seek a rework under the Common Framework and is aiming to reduce its international debt payments by US$10.5 billion over the next three years.

Its progress has been relatively swift compared to the likes of Zambia. The government recently agreed to tackle roughly US$4 billion of its domestic debt via a pension fund debt swap operation and a dollar-denominated bonds exchange.

It has sent a restructuring plan to its official sector - wealthier government - creditors and its finance minister has said he also expects to reach a deal with the country's bondholders by the end of the year.

The funds know it will require them to write off money but hope it could also include a recovery instrument that would mean Ghana pays back more of that money over time if its economy recovers quickly.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan needs upwards of $22 billion to service external debt and pay other bills for fiscal year 2024.

A caretaker administration is in charge until an election that must take place by November. Inflation and interest rates are at historic highs, and it is struggling to rebuild from devastating 2022 floods.

In June 2023, Pakistan reached an 11th-hour deal with the IMF for a US$3 billion bailout, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE followed with US$2 billion and US$1 billion cash infusions.

Reserves, which had fallen to US$3.5 billion, had rebounded to US$7.8 billion by late August. Observers say it could have enough to make it to the elections but there are major questions about how long it will be able to avoid default without huge support.

TUNISIA

The North African nation, reeling from multiple hits since a 2011 revolution, is facing a full-blown economic crisis.

Most debt is internal but foreign loan repayments are due later this year and credit ratings agencies have said Tunisia could default.

President Kais Saied has slammed the terms required to unlock US$1.9 billion from the IMF as diktats that he will not meet.

Saudi Arabia pledged a US$400 million soft loan, and a US$100 million grant, but the tourism-dependent economy continues to grapple with shortages in imported food and medicine. The European Union has offered about US$1.1 billion (one billion euros)in support but that appears to be mostly pegged to the IMF deal or reforms.

EGYPT

Egypt remains another of the big countries seen as at risk of falling into trouble. North Africa's largest economy has around US$100 billion of hard currency - mainly dollar-denominated - debt to pay over the next five years, including a meaty US$3.3 billion bond next year and the government spends over 40% of its revenues just on debt interest payments.

Cairo has a US$3 billion IMF program and has devalued the pound by roughly 50% since February 2022. But a privatization plan is still on the go-slow and last month it veered away from its IMF plan by saying it would keep subsidized electricity prices unchanged until January.

Some of its government bonds are changing hands at half their face value and analysts think a key factor in whether it can get back on track is the amount of support wealthy Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia provide going forward.

EL SALVADOR

El Salvador has shifted from doom and default to bond market darling, propelled by two surprise debt buybacks and the appointment of a former IMF official as adviser to the finance ministry.

In summer 2022, its 2025 eurobond fell to just under 27 cents on the dollar, weighed down by high debt service costs and worries over its financing plans and fiscal policies.

The same bond traded at 91.50 cents on August 31, and its debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 77% in December 2022, the lowest since 2019, and is forecast to drop another percentage point this year, according to Refinitiv data.

It’s now relatively light debt repayment schedule through 2027, and the sky-high popularity of President Nayib Bukele, has assuaged fears the country could default.

KENYA

The East African nation's public debt stands at nearly 70% of GDP, according to the World Bank, putting it at high risk of debt distress.

President William Ruto's government has moderated spending and proposed a raft of tax hikes, assuaging some concerns of an imminent default.

The African Development Bank is in talks with Kenya over US$80.6 million to help it plug its financing gaps this year, and it is also discussing budgetary support from the World Bank.

But concerns remain; Ruto's political opposition has opposed many of his tax hikes, and protests have forced him to pause some reforms, such as fuel subsidy cuts.

UKRAINE

Ukraine froze debt payments in 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion. It has said it is likely to decide early next year whether to try to extend that agreement or begin looking at potentially more complex alternatives.

Top institutions estimate the post-war rebuild cost will be at least one trillion euros, and the IMF estimates Ukraine needs $3-$4 billion a month to keep the country running.

If the war with Russia is not won or at least eased to a much lower intensity by next year, its debt restructuring dilemma will also have to factor in the November 2024 US Presidential election and the degree of support it would receive should Donald Trump or another Republican candidate win office.

LEBANON

Lebanon has been in default since 2020 with few signs its problems will be resolved any time some.

The IMF has issued stark warnings, but one bit of progress in the last couple of months has been a proposal by the central bank to lift the long-time peg on the country's local currency,

 

What is behind recent turmoil in Lebanon?

Lebanon has witnessed a number of incidents over the past weeks that have made the headlines. Armed clashes broke out at Ain al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Southern Lebanon, between the Fatah faction and extremist militants, which Prime Minister Najib Mikati blamed on outside forces and their repeated attempts to use Lebanon as a battleground for the settling of scores.

Between July 29 and August 02, explosions and gunshots shook the camp, resulting in at least 12 deaths, dozens of injuries, and the displacement of around 2,000 people.

There are different narratives about how the fighting started, but it made international headlines. It is unlike the killing of Palestinians by Israelis in the occupied West Bank or the besieged Gaza Strip. 

At the same time, the Saudi Arabian embassy in Beirut issued a call on its citizens to leave Lebanon and not to travel to areas where there are armed clashes. The embassy did not specify which areas to avoid. 

A statement stressed the importance of adhering to the Saudi travel ban to Lebanon. A few other Persian Gulf states also updated their travel advice for Lebanon. 

Some analysts also went on regional media predicting things to turn ugly in light of the Saudi warning. 

However, several days have passed, and nothing has happened, with the exception of damage incurred to the Lebanese tourism industry. 

Sources have told news outlets close to Hezbollah that the statements of the Persian Gulf embassies were merely political and related to the presidential election. 

A ceasefire is in place at the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp and appears to be holding. 

It's not the first time that fighting has erupted at the camp or other Palestinian refugee camps in Southern Lebanon. 

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, condemned the fighting during a speech delivered on the Day of Ashura, saying it only undermines the resistance against the Israeli enemy. 

During the speech, Sayyed Nasrallah also warned Israel against its occupation of Lebanese territory along the border with the occupied Palestinian territories. 

On Tuesday, the Lebanese army organized a field tour along the Blue Line for representatives of member states of the UN Security Council accredited to Lebanon in the presence of local, regional, and international media.

The tour included a presentation of the Blue Line (a border line between Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories published by the United Nations on June 07, 2000 for the purposes of determining whether Israel had fully withdrawn from Lebanon) with detailed information about the points of contention. 

Upon arrival, two Israeli gunboats violated Lebanese territorial waters in full view of the international delegation.

The delegation also moved to a Lebanese army station at Ras al-Naqouras adjacent to an Israeli watchtower, where surveillance cameras, jamming and listening devices, other espionage equipment as well as troops are holed up in it.  

Some army officers in the Fifth Brigade explained to the international diplomats the extent of the Israeli violations on Lebanese territory.

Then Brigadier General Mounir Shehadeh delivered a speech in which he affirmed, “Lebanon has reservations about these violations, including 13 border positions still occupied by the Zionist enemy," stressing that the border demarcation was completed in 1923 and that Lebanon will never accept any amendments. 

"These areas at the southern border have been recorded since the adoption of the Blue Line, and therefore they are a line of withdrawal (for Israeli occupation) and not a demarcation of the borders," General Shehadeh stated.

The demarcation of Lebanon’s border with Palestine took place in 1923. It was then enshrined in an armistice agreement in 1949.
Shehadeh stressed, “Lebanon does not care about what is said about a land demarcation, and that this word is not present in our dictionary as a Lebanese army and as a Lebanese government. We are talking about fixing the borders and showing the Lebanese borders, not demarcating the borders.”  

"When the Blue Line was drawn up in the year 2000 by the United Nations, it came in more than one place that does not coincide with international borders, and we called it a line of withdrawal, not a border line, and therefore we seek that the Blue Line becomes identical with what is identified in internationally."

He concluded by stressing, "We will preserve Lebanon's right to every grain of soil from its land, and this is what we are doing."

Israel has called on Lebanon via international mediators to remove two tents set up by Hezbollah in the Sheba'a Farm area. Beirut's response was that the two tents are located on Lebanese territory.

Tensions have escalated further recently after Israel re-occupied northern Ghajar village, southeast Lebanon. 

Israeli media reports have said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet his top military commanders to study the situation. 

During his Ashura speech, Nasrallah issued a warning to Israeli political and military leaders saying, "Be careful of any stupidity. The resistance in Lebanon will not step back from its duty. It is ready for any option, danger, or stupidity."

He pointed out, "Israel speaks of Hezbollah threats on the border when the regime has the nerve to occupy our territory."

In the last Israeli war against Lebanon in July 2006, the regime acknowledged its defeat, as it was taken aback by the strength of Hezbollah's power. 

According to experts, the Lebanese resistance has between 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers along with a wide array of powerful missiles and other sophisticated weapons it has kept secret. 

Experts believe that if Israel were to wage a war against Lebanon today, Hezbollah is capable of capturing the entire Galilee region and perhaps more (northern occupied Palestinian territories) within the first two to three days of the war. 

That is one-third of the entire occupied Palestinian territories. 

Many things have changed since July 2006. Not only has Hezbollah become more powerful, but the region has changed. 

There is a possibility that any Israeli war on Lebanon would draw in Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha'abi, Yemen's Ansarullah as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip and the newly formed resistance in the occupied West Bank. Syria would also find a good opportunity to liberate the Golan Heights and attack from that direction.

Israel can assassinate resistance figures from the air. But with the introduction of drones on the battlefield, the regime's air superiority is no longer efficient, according to experts. 

When it comes to land combat, the regime has proven its cowardness, experts say. 

Israel can launch a war against Lebanon's Hezbollah, but as Sayyed Nasrallah noted, it would be "stupid" to do so.
 

Khamenei representative meets Nasrallah

Seyed Hassan Ameli, the representative of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution to Ardebil Province, traveled to Lebanon and met with the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah. 

Ayatollah Ameli was accompanied by a group of clerics who are members of the Assembly of Experts. 

Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Ameli, also attended the meeting, according to Tasnim. 

In the meeting, the historical relations between the two brotherly countries were discussed. 

Ayatollah Ameli has been rising to prominence in recent years as a result of tensions between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijani over Israel’s presence in the South Caucasus nation. Ameli has also been at the center of Tehran’s messaging efforts to Baku over the latter’s relations with Israel. 

The Israeli Ambassador to the Republic of Azerbaijan, George Deek, has caused several uproars by taking controversial actions such as visiting the Iran-Azerbaijan border or alluding to Iran’s Azeri population.

Ayatollah Ameli responded in kind, visiting the Israel-Lebanon border.  In mid-July, Ayatollah Ameli, an ethnic Azeri, posed for a photo right on the Lebanon-Israel border.

“I greeted the martyrs of the Resistance by coming to an Israeli border area that is overlooking a settlement in the occupied territories,” he said. 

He also said that his move was a response to the Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan. “The Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan came close to our borders to tell us that ‘we’ve come very close to you.’

For me, that was difficult to tolerate. So, on my trip to Lebanon, I went to Maroun al-Ras and stood near the border area overlooking a Zionist settlement. And I cursed the killer of the Palestinians who has been shedding Muslims’ blood for 75 years,” Ayatollah Ameli said in a tweet. 

Later, when he came back to Ardebil, Ayatollah Ameli said he visited the Lebanon-Israel border so that the Israeli ambassadors to Azerbaijan know that his action does not go unanswered. 

 

 

Saudi Arabia asks its citizens to leave Lebanon

Saudi Embassy in Lebanon has warned the Saudi citizens from being present or approaching the areas that are witnessing armed conflicts in the country.

The embassy has asked Saudi citizens to leave Lebanon quickly, in addition to the importance of adhering to the decision of banning travel there.

In the event any emergency occurs, the embassy advised the citizens to contact them through the following numbers: The Embassy number: 009611762711; 009611762722 — Saudis affairs number: 0096178803388; 0096176026555 — the unified number for the Saudi affairs abroad: 00966920033334 — the embassy account on X app: @KSAembassyLB

Lebanon: Failure to elect new president deepens crisis

Lebanon plunged deeper into crisis on Wednesday when Hezbollah and its allies thwarted a bid by their rivals to elect a top IMF official as president, sharpening sectarian tensions and underlining the dim hopes for reviving the crumbling state.

Four years since Lebanon slid into a financial meltdown that marks its worst crisis since the 1975-90 civil war, parliament failed for the 12th time to elect someone to fill the post reserved for a Maronite Christian under the country's sectarian system.

Lawmakers from the Iran-backed armed Shi'ite group Hezbollah and allies including the Shi'ite Amal Movement withdrew from the session to obstruct a bid by the main Christian parties to elect IMF official Jihad Azour.

The standoff has opened up a sectarian faultline, with one of Hezbollah's main Christian allies - Gebran Bassil - lining up behind the bid to elect Azour, alongside anti-Hezbollah Christian factions.

Azour, the IMF's Middle East Director and an ex-finance minister, won the support of 59 of parliament's 128 lawmakers in an initial vote, short of the two-thirds needed to win in the first round. Suleiman Frangieh, backed by Hezbollah and its allies, got 51 votes.

Hezbollah and its allies then withdrew, denying the two-thirds quorum required for a second round of voting in which a candidate can win with the support of 65 lawmakers.

It leaves Lebanon with no immediate prospect of filling the presidency, which has been vacant since the term of the Hezbollah-allied President Michel Aoun ended in October last year.

Hezbollah, which says it is exercising its constitutional rights, is backing its close Christian ally Frangieh, a friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who strongly supports Hezbollah's right to possess weapons.

Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States, has unleashed fierce rhetoric in their campaign against Azour, describing him as a candidate of confrontation.

Lebanon's Shi'ite Mufti Sheikh Ahmad Qabalan dialled up the attacks on Sunday against Azour without naming him, accusing him of being backed by Israel and saying "a president with an American stamp will not be allowed".

Azour, 57, has said he wants to build national unity and implement reforms in a country mired in its deepest crisis since its 1975-90 civil war.

Azour served as finance minister from 2005 to 2008, a period of political conflict pitting a government backed by the West and Saudi Arabia against opponents aligned with Damascus and led by Hezbollah.

He also enjoyed the support of Lebanon's main Druze faction, the Progressive Socialist Party led by the Jumblatt family, and some Sunni lawmakers.

UN agency for Palestine refugees on verge of financial collapse

The United Nations has appealed for sustainable funding for its agency that supports Palestine refugees, UNRWA, which is on the brink of financial collapse.

Chronic underfunding over the past decade, and resultant severe austerity measures, mean UNRWA is already operating with a US$75 million shortfall, putting its lifesaving programs across the Middle East at risk.

“As I address you today, I do not have the funds to keep our schools, health centers and other services running as of September,” Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini told a pledging conference at UN Headquarters in New York.

UNRWA was established in 1949 as a temporary agency to provide aid to Palestinians following mass displacement from land that became Israel, making it one of the first UN humanitarian operations.

Today, nearly six million people in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, depend on its services, which are almost entirely funded by voluntary contributions. Nearly a third of registered Palestine refugees live in camps.

UNRWA is seeking US$1.6 billion for its operations this year. Lazzararini said an additional US$75 million is urgently needed to provide food for over a million people in Gaza. Another US$30 million is required to maintain cash and food assistance to 600,000 people in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged the international community to ensure the agency is fully funded.

Despite its essential role, “we allow UNRWA to remain trapped in financial limbo,” he said in remarks delivered by his Chef de Cabinet, Courtenay Rattray.

The UN chief was also deeply concerned that some of the largest and most reliable donors have indicated that they might be reducing their support.

“Let’s be clear: UNRWA is on the verge of financial collapse. The consequences of further budget cuts would be catastrophic,” he warned.

More than a half a million young Palestinians are enrolled in UNRWA schools, two of whom made impassioned pleas at the pledging conference.

Ahmad Abu Daqqa attends a boys’ school in the Gaza Strip, where a blockade has been in place for more than 15 years.

“We, the students of the Gaza Strip, seek hope amidst despair,” he said, conveying a message from his peers.

“We only find it in education and learning, despite the numerous difficulties and obstacles we face, like living in a conflict and war zone.”

UNRWA students are proud of their education, heritage and culture, added Leen Sharqawi, 15, who attends a girls’ school in Jordan. They also have big dreams.

“We are not just Palestine refugees,” she said. “We are children who dream of becoming global citizens and who want to help the world become a better place. Good education is what will allow us to do this.” 

Syria: Welcome back into Arab League

Arab foreign ministers welcomed Syria’s formal return to their 22-member bloc after 12 years of isolation. Syrian delegation, headed by Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, is attending the preparatory meeting of foreign ministers in Jeddah ahead of the 32nd Arab League Summit scheduled for Friday.

Saudi Arabia took over the rotating presidency of the Arab League summit as Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf handed over the presidency to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. The foreign ministers started finalizing the agenda and preparing draft resolutions of the summit.

In his presidential address, Prince Faisal bin Farhan underscored the need for unity among Arab countries in order to overcome common challenges and difficulties as well as to confront major global challenges. The foreign minister welcomed the Arab delegations, especially the Syrian delegation.

He emphasized that the world is going through great challenges that warrant us to stand united to confront them. “Everyone must innovate new mechanisms to confront the challenges faced by our countries,” he said while underscoring the need for joint action by Arab countries for the advancement of their peoples.

The foreign ministers stressed the importance of a ceasefire in Sudan to ensure the safety of its citizens and called for the crisis to be treated as an internal matter. The summit comes at a time of major political developments, including the Sudan crisis, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Syria’s readmission to the body, all of which were at the top of the agenda of the ministerial meeting preparatory for Friday’s summit.

This year’s summit differs from previous years as it is the first to be attended by Syria since the country’s membership was suspended in 2011. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will attend the summit. Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit welcomed the high-level Syrian delegation.

At the outset of the session, Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf called for resolving the Arab differences within the Arab House, stressing that the upcoming summit seeks to unite the Arab world in confronting the challenges in the region.

Attaf emphasized that Arab countries should focus on joint Arab action to confront the global challenges. He also stressed the need to pay attention to the changes taking place in the world, because they will change the balance of power. He supported Saudi Arabia’s efforts for the cessation of hostilities in Sudan and resolve the crisis. He also emphasized that the Libyan-Libyan dialogue alone will restore stability to Libya.

Attaf underlined the need to exert efforts to achieve Palestinian reconciliation and national unity. He also supported the aspirations of the Yemeni people to restore their security and stability. The minister hoped that Lebanon would witness an understanding among its people to solve its internal crisis.

In his speech, Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit said the Israeli government is responsible for the deterioration of the situation in the Palestinian territories, warning that the situation there is approaching a phase of explosion.

Aboul Gheit pointed out that there are positive indications from Iran and Turkey to stop their interference in the affairs of Arab countries. He stressed that the Jeddah summit is an opportunity to put an end to armaments in Sudan.

The ministerial preparatory meeting was preceded by several other meetings, the most important of which were the meeting of the Quartet Arab Ministerial Committee concerned with following up the developments of the Iranian file, and the meeting of the Arab Ministerial Committee concerned with following up Turkish interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries. There was also a meeting of the open-ended Arab Ministerial Committee to support the State of Palestine.

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette

Iran to help Lebanon overcome energy crisis

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has asserted that Iran can fix Lebanon’s energy shortage through bilateral collaboration with the Arab country, noting the US sanctions on the Islamic Republic cannot affect such an endeavor.

Amir Abdollahian told a news conference in Beirut that during his three-day visit to Lebanon, he assured Lebanese authorities that Iran can address the electricity issue if the two nations sign a deal for cooperation.

“Of course, the US pressures and fear-mongering about sanctions are among the problems in this regard, but you should know that the US sanctions have failed,” he added.

He went on to stress that Tehran, which is subject to strict US sanctions, exports oil and other kinds of fuel to several nations, including Iraq.

“Given Iran’s capabilities, bilateral cooperation in the electricity and gas sectors is a profitable and two-way business both for Lebanon and Iran, and of course, it helps to improve the Lebanese people’s welfare,” the top Iranian diplomat highlighted. 

In this respect, talks between Tehran and Beirut are progressing, according to Amir Abdollahian, who expressed hope that the parties will be able to take concrete action following the conclusion of the political processes in Lebanon and the election of the nation's president.

The acute fuel crisis in Lebanon has caused several homes and businesses to struggle with ongoing power outages, and the country’s economic collapse since 2019 has slowed down fuel imports for government facilities.

Last year, after Hezbollah requested Iranian assistance to alleviate the energy shortfall in the Lebanon, Iran provided much-needed petroleum shipments via Syria.

Regarding Lebanon’s political issues, Amir Abdollahian stated that Iran has consistently backed any accord reached by the Lebanese parties and will use its resources to assist the Arab nation in completing its political process.

Iran would back the option, the foreign minister stated, if all Lebanese parties agreed to elect a Christian president in accordance with the nation’s constitution.

Amir Abdollahian further announced that Iran and Saudi Arabia will reopen their embassies and general consulates in the upcoming days, about two months after the two regional powerhouses decided to mend their strained relations that had been broken seven years earlier.

The senior diplomat pointed out that the restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have positive effects on regional countries, especially Lebanon, and would start new chapter in their relationship.

 

Quds Day being observed under radically changed conditions

Today, Quds Day is being observed around the globe with mass anti-Israel protests. The founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Imam Khomeini, initiated the day of solidarity with Palestine on the last Friday of Ramadan. 

Israel is witnessing growing resistance against its colonialism, most significantly over the past year, from the occupied West Bank. 

Gone are the days when Israeli troops enjoyed the freedom to raid West Bank towns and villages to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians residing there. 

Today, newly formed armed resistance factions by the West Bank youth have changed the equation and are taking the battle to Israel's occupation troops.

They are conducting armed retaliatory operations against the regime's occupation including at its many military checkpoints scattered across the West Bank. Those retaliatory operations have struck the heart of the occupied territories, Tel Aviv.

They are also refusing to surrender to the regime's almost daily pre-dawn invasion of Palestinian towns and villages. Instead, these youths are confronting Special Forces in armed clashes, battles that usually last several hours. 

Their refusal to surrender explains the high Palestinian death toll. Israeli forces have murdered around 100 Palestinians so far this year.

It's no wonder Israel plans to set up a "National Guard" (described as a settler militia) to handle the West Bank resistance. 

That's how Israeli media described a photo published on April 9, 2023 of a meeting between the Secretary General of Lebanon's Hezbollah Sayyad Hassan Nasrallah and Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau. 

The two leaders met in Beirut to discuss the readiness of the axis of resistance and to further expand their cooperation in light of Israel's terrorism these days at al-Aqsa Mosque in occupied al-Quds (Jerusalem).

The meeting between Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Hamas movement in the besieged Gaza Strip to expand and improve cooperation will be seen as a major concern among the security apparatus of the Zionist entity.

The salvo of missiles fired from Palestinian refugee camps in Southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip in response to Israel’s desecration of al-Aqsa Mosque (Islam’s third holiest site) indicated one key element.

The regime responded by striking farmland in Lebanon and airstrikes in the Gaza Strip for one night. In both attacks it was careful not to kill anybody as it cannot afford a wider conflict with the Palestinian resistance.

It also cannot embark on a war with Hezbollah as it knows very well the powerful resistance movement has weapons that can strike deep inside all occupied territories, including precision missiles that can hit very sensitive sites, including Israel’s Dimona nuclear weapons plant.

The same can be said about the Gaza Strip. Israel cannot afford a conflict with the Palestinian resistance in the blockaded coastal enclave as the resistance has missiles in its hands that can hit vital Israeli infrastructure and humiliate the regime.

With the power of the resistance in Lebanon and Gaza significantly growing, Israel can’t even wage a war to divert attention from the crisis the entity is witnessing from within.

There have been mass protests by Israelis against their new coalition’s plans to overhaul the regime’s so-called judicial system.

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets and clashed with forces in protest against the proposed measures by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultra-orthodox and fascist cabinet.

Such is the extent of the fighting within Israel and warnings by the regime’s President and other officials of a civil war, Netanyahu’s cabinet was forced to postpone the plans for a month.

But as the English say, he is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

If Netanyahu drops his overhaul plans, he could end up in prison for corruption charges as well as members of his fragile coalition withdrawing, which would mean an end to his majority in the Israeli Knesset.

That would result in fifth election in less than five years. There has never been so much internal division within Israel’s 75 years of occupation of Palestine. Nevertheless, Netanyahu needs to keep his cabinet at any cost. This explains the vicious storming into al-Aqsa Mosque and committing terror on innocent worshipers in a desperate bid to appease the settlers.

If there is anything that brings a smile on the settler’s faces, it is footage of the occupation troops mercilessly attacking women and men inside al-Aqsa Mosque. But again, this comes with its ramifications that Israel will face in the near future.

So much is the division over Netanyahu’s overhaul plans of the judiciary that even segments in nearly all of the regime’s military armed forces and units withdrew from crucial training, which Israeli military officials, in turn, said poses a direct threat to the existence of the occupation.

In another major setback for Israel, its staunchest supporter, the United States has lost its clout in West Asia as witnessed by the recent detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as the steady restoration of ties between Syria and the Arab world. 

In a sign of how developments are quickly changing in West Asia, a Saudi delegation travelled to the Yemeni capital Sana’a for talks with the head of the popular Ansarullah revolution, not the other way round.

This was not the case two decades ago, when Washington had major influence on the region. That influence is now shifting to the countries in West Asia itself. 

Alongside that, such is the fascist language being publicly broadcast by the minister in Netanyahu’s cabinet, that it has forced the US to end its decades long protocol of inviting a new Israel’s Prime Minister to the White House within two or three months.

Netanyahu, who assumed power again in January is still waiting for an invitation to hold talks with President Joe Biden. And he may have to wait longer.

On March 28, when Biden stressed he is not going to invite the Israeli prime minister to Washington “in the near term”, Netanyahu publicly hit back at the US President, underscoring the tense relationship between the current White House and the Israeli occupation.

However, it all goes back to the indigenous people of the land.

On Sunday Syrian President Bashar al-Assad pointed out that the Palestinian nation’s perseverance has pushed the occupying regime to the brink of collapse.

Israel has never been in a fragile state (pardon the pun) as it is now, facing so many crises from within and from the developments in the region as well as the international community as it continues to pursue its extremely racist agenda. 

 

Israel launches strikes in Lebanon and Gaza

Israel said it struck targets belonging to the Palestinian group Hamas in southern Lebanon and Gaza on Friday, amid rising tension days after Israeli police stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Al-Quds.

The escalation in tensions comes after Israeli forces stormed the mosque in occupied East Jerusalem on successive days this week, firing stun grenades and attacking Palestinians as they gathered for Ramadan prayers.

The strikes came hours after dozens of rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israeli territory. The barrage from Lebanon was the largest since a 2006 war between the two countries and raised fears of a wider regional escalation.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) international spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht said Friday the Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon were focused mainly on Palestinian targets in the area from which they believe the rockets were launched into Israel.

The Resistance in Gaza has informed the mediators that any massive aggression against the Strip will be met with an unprecedented response.

The sources added the Resistance has placed its long-range missile units on maximum alert, and the scope and extent of the response will be determined according to the size of the bombing and the targets that are attacked.

The source added that there is complete coordination between the Resistance in Gaza and the operations room of the Axis of Resistance in the region.

In the latest development, two people were killed after resistance fighters opened fire on a vehicle in the occupied West Bank as tensions between Israel and the Palestinians intensify.

The Magen David Adom ambulance service said two women in their 20s were killed and a third in her 40s was seriously wounded. The medics said they pulled the three unconscious women out of their car, which had apparently crashed after gunmen opened fire at it from a nearby vehicle.

The occupation army also shut down the Hamra military checkpoint in the northern West Bank, blocking the movement of Palestinian traffic, according to local sources. They blocked traffic through the checkpoint in both directions.

The checkpoint straddles the road connecting the northern provinces of the West Bank with Jericho and the neighboring villages in the east of the territory.

 

Saudi Arab trying to find path to dialogue with Iran

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said the kingdom was trying to find a path to dialogue with Iran as the best way to resolve differences.

He said a decision by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to focus on their economies and development was a strong signal to Iran and others in the region that there is a pathway beyond traditional arguments and disputes towards joint prosperity.

The Middle East's leading Sunni Muslim and Shi'ite powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran have for years vied for influence in a rivalry that has played out across the region in events such as the conflicts in Yemen and Syria and in Lebanon.

Riyadh and Tehran cut ties in 2016 but officials from the two countries have held five rounds of direct talks hosted by Iraq since last year, the last of which was in April, without achieving any diplomatic breakthroughs.

Gulf Arab states are concerned about Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs and network of regional proxies, but want to contain tensions as they focus on economic priorities.

The Saudi foreign minister, speaking at a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, also said there was a need to find a route to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, otherwise global uncertainty would continue.

"This is complex question, but we will have to talk about how we find a pathway to ending the conflict," he said.

Prince Faisal said attention on the Middle East was also needed, citing Syria as well as regional concerns over provocative policies by Israel's new government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu in an alliance with ultra-nationalists.

Netanyahu has pledged to pursue formal Israeli ties with Riyadh to build on normalization pacts signed with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020 under his leadership.

Gulf powerhouse Saudi Arabia blessed the US-brokered pacts but stopped short of formally recognizing Israel in the absence of a resolution to Palestinian statehood goals.

 

Biological war suspected in Syria and Lebanon

Cholera continues to sweep through Syria and Lebanon at an alarming pace, leaving thousands sick and hundreds dead. The number of cases of the bacterial disease in both countries is steadily increasing, with UNICEF estimating the total in Syria at 35,569 while the Ministry of Public Health puts that in Lebanon at 3,369. 

According to the European Union, the causes of the outbreak in Syria include drought, economic decline, and the battered state of the country’s water infrastructure, which leaves 47% of the population relying on unsafe sources of water for their daily needs.

Cholera is contracted by ingesting contaminated food or drinking water and causes intestinal problems and dehydration that can be fatal unless treated quickly. The key to fighting off the disease is good hygiene and clean water, yet in some remote and undeveloped areas in Syria access to these is scarce, meaning there is a real chance that the number of cases could soar.

In late September thousands of people across Syria started complaining of acute diarrhea, and the number of cases has grown steadily since.

According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), part of the cholera outbreak was due to cowboy merchants near the Euphrates River running a water scam, whereby they sold unclean water from unregulated trucks and billed it as clean.

Syria’s problems with water treatment are far broader and largely due to the impact of the decade-long war: Nearly two-thirds of the country’s water plants, half of its pumping stations, and one-third of its water towers have been damaged because of the conflict.

The unofficial total is thought to be higher — and 35,000 suspected cases. The scale and speed of the outbreak has prompted the EU to act, providing €700,000 in humanitarian aid to contain the epidemic. 

Cholera spreads into Lebanon

As the outbreak in Syria has grown, cholera has spread to neighboring Lebanon, which itself suffers from an economic collapse, an ongoing political crisis, and a plethora of other problems.

The transmission of the disease has been facilitated by the free movement between the two countries. Lebanon is home to a large number of Syrian refugees, estimated at 1.5 million, or one-fourth of the total population.

After cholera spread to Lebanon, the World Health Organization (WHO) assessed the risk of an outbreak there as high due to the shortage of drinking water and the country's fragile and strained health system. A lack of electricity and a significant shortage of fresh water in Lebanon have placed further pressure on the system.  

The first cases in Lebanon were reported in early October. Speaking about them at the time, Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abiad said, “The common point between these cases is the majority of patients are displaced Syrians.” He added, “The absence of basic services, like safe water and sewage networks, in places where refugees gather constitutes a fertile ground for the epidemic too.”

According to official figures from Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health, as of Nov. 13 around 3,369 people have been infected and 18 have died in the first cholera outbreak in the country in more than 30 years.

UNICEF has taken rapid action to help with the effort in Lebanon, distributing 80,000 liters of fuel to water pumping and wastewater treatment stations in locations with confirmed and suspected cases, as well as procuring emergency medical supplies to treat cholera, such as oral rehydration salts and treatment kits.

The WHO has also gotten involved, helping to arrange a shipment of 600,000 doses of cholera vaccine. A vaccination campaign in Lebanon was launched on November 12, 2022 targeting both Lebanese and refugees.

The epidemic is spreading quickly in both countries and threatens to plunge Syria and Lebanon into more uncertainty, despair, and crisis. Unless the fundamental drivers are addressed and water treatment plants and facilities, especially in Syria, are improved, outbreaks will no doubt reoccur in the future with regularity.

Election brings Israeli collapse closer

Whichever parties form the government in the aftermath of Israel's unprecedented fifth election in less than four years, these just cannot whitewash the reality that the political deadlock in Israel is getting more complicated. Coupled with its genocidal approach toward Palestinians, this indicates that the Zionist regime’s demise may be near.

Exit polls suggested the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing several corruption charges with one trial alone, hearing from over 300 witnesses, is taking the lead with a very narrow majority. A final result is not expected until later in the week.

Israel's longest-serving premier is poised to form government with rightwing extremist religious Zionist party, which may spell defeat for his rival war criminal Yair Lapid. But Israeli elections tend to take weeks of negotiations for a cabinet formation and the chances of another political stalemate triggering yet another election are high. Many exhausted Israelis are already bracing for a sixth election next year.

It reflects the state of the Israeli internal and political crises that has existed for years, with the intensification of competition and the sharp polarization between the camp of Netanyahu and the camp opposed to him. This is accompanied by the internal divisions of the Israeli parties alongside settlers who are illegally squatting on people's indigenous land.

Should an Israeli war cabinet be formed by a difference of one vote, it will be another weak ruling regime that can collapse at any moment, as was the case during the Lapid era when it took only one cabinet member to withdraw from the ruling system to fall apart.

Recent Israeli opinion polls show how the trend of Israeli society is heading further to the extreme far-right. This means more Palestinian ethnic cleansing efforts in the face of a growing armed resistance movement in the occupied West Bank.

But as has been seen before the Netanyahu camp may struggle to form a cabinet and other smaller parties have not decided on supporting either Netanyahu or Lapid, which keeps the Israeli political scene in a state of instability. It has been proven difficult for one of the two camps to obtain an absolute majority to resolve the political crisis that has been in place for years.

Netanyahu is seeking the surging power of the far-right Itamar Ben-Gvir to bring him back to power. The so-called "lawmaker", as the Western press like to refer to him, casted his vote in one of the many West Bank settlements where he squats on. 

Ben-Gvir is a reflection of how much more authoritarian the occupying regime has become. His regular hate speech against the Palestinians is a stain on the regime's Western backers.

Whatever results the Israeli political scene produces in this election, any cabinet that may be formed will remain one that is brutal to the Palestinian people and will continue to deny them their most basic human rights.

This hostility to the Palestinians, the murder of civilians including children, demolition of homes, expansion of illegal settlements extends to the settlers’ crimes of desecrating holy sites most important of which is the flashpoint al-Aqsa Mosque.

This is the dire Israeli reality that works to reproduce more and more far-right extremism towards the Palestinians with every new election.

Another issue is that the electoral alliances of the two competing camps will not be able to offer anything new to the Israeli voter, and the deep political division and sharp polarization between two competing racist camps will continue to undermine the longevity of any Israeli cabinet that can be formed. The Israeli political system will remain in a state of instability and will continue to suffer.

The cost of living has been a hot issue in this election as Israelis, having long endured high prices, are feeling the pinch even more amid economic turmoil linked to the Ukraine war.

Another realistic scenario, which is strongly possible, is that if neither camp is able to form a cabinet, the Israelis are likely to return to the polls for the sixth time after only six months, in light of a state of severe polarization and political instability. It is a real political nightmare that may fall upon the regime once more.

There are both internal and external challenges to the election. On the foreign front, one of the most prominent challenges that constitutes a great concern for Israel and disturbs all its political and security levels, from its extreme right to its extreme left, is the Islamic Republic of Iran in particular, which is a top priority in Israeli foreign policy, and is an obstacle in the face of all parties that struggle for power and call for a military strike on Iran to undermine its influence in the region, yet are unable to do so.

This approach collides with the calculations of the US administration, which does not like the hawkish Netanyahu to return to the political scene. Washington is more in favor of a diplomatic solution when it comes to the Iran nuclear deal, knowing a military option of toppling the Islamic Republic on behalf of the Zionist lobby is off the cards. 

Israel's strongest ally, the United States is facing its own crisis of losing its hegemony over the region as a result of Russia and China's influence in West Asia that could end the state of American control and rule in the region. At the end of the day, no matter how close the American President Joe Biden is to "BiBi", American mentality takes precedence over the interests of Israel, at times when US hegemony is at risk.

This was reflected in the OPEC Plus decision to slash its oil production target over US objections, drawing anger from Washington which accused the organization of siding with Russia. Reports of Saudi Arabia being in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in the yuan currency instead of dollar suggest the regional allies of the US are becoming less trustworthy of Washington than before.

The end of American hegemony in West Asia spells the end of the Israeli apartheid regime. Internally, there are basic challenges that face any Israeli cabinet arising from the latest election that pose many difficult dilemmas. Aside from the economic insecurity there is, more importantly, the personal security of the Israelis, and the state of internal instability experienced by the Israeli society, which is dominated by bribery, corruption, organized crime, and the inaction of the judiciary. These are challenges that the Israeli rulers have been unable to find a solution to.

The most prominent and latest problem facing Israel at this stage is the security challenge in the occupied West Bank after the growth of the Palestinian resistance and the emergence of new military formations in the West Bank cities such as the Jenin Brigade, the Lion's Den Brigade and others, and their progress in carrying out successful and sophisticated retaliatory operations against occupation soldiers and settlers have imposed new equations on the military occupation.

Around 30 Palestinians and three Israelis were killed across the occupied West Bank in October alone. Scores of others have been injured from both sides.

In the face of increased insecurity, Israel stands bewildered and helpless and has witnessed a catastrophic failure, which has created an insecure environment, from which no weak or fragile future cabinet will be able to find a solution.

This election may do nothing to end Israel's brutal ethnic cleansing against the Palestinians, but the growing strength of the resistance will deal heavy blows to the future of the apartheid regime.

Courtesy: The Tehran Times

 

QatarEnergy keen in acquiring 30% stake in Lebanon offshore gas project

State-owned QatarEnergy is in talks with the Lebanese government to take a 30% stake in an offshore exploration block and is also negotiating with TotalEnergies and ENI on this matter, CEO Saad al-Kaabi confirmed on Sunday.

According to Reuters, TotalEnergies and the Lebanese government have reached a deal handing the French oil major temporary majority control of the block and paving the way for negotiations with Qatar over a stake in the gas project.

"We are in the process of discussing that with the government of Lebanon and the partners, Total and ENI for a participation of around 30% ownership of that exploration block," Kaabi said.

"In due course when we get that basically finalized as an agreement, and we sign that agreement, we will announce it."

The initial exploration license was held by a three-part consortium of TotalEnergies, Italy's Eni and Novatek. Beirut announced in September that Novatek, which held a 20% stake, would exit.

Lebanon's cabinet issued an unpublished decision on October 21, assigning Novatek's stake to a firm called Daja 216 and transferring TotalEnergies's 40% stake to another company, Daja 215. It is believed that Daja 215 and Daja 216 were TotalEnergies vehicles.

The sources had said that the understanding between TotalEnergies and Lebanon was that the French group would enter negotiations with QatarEnergy over the former Novatek stake. Qatar was seeking a 30% stake, comprised of Novatek's former stake and a 5% stake from each of TotalEnergies and Eni.

Offshore areas in the eastern Mediterranean and Levant have yielded major gas discoveries in the past decade. Interest in them has grown since Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted gas supplies.

 

Lebanon plunging into constitutional chaos

Outgoing Lebanese President Michel Aoun told Reuters on Saturday his nation could be sliding into constitutional chaos, with an unprecedented situation of having no one in line to succeed him and a cabinet that is operating in a caretaker capacity.

Aoun is set to leave the presidential palace on Sunday, a day before his six-year term ends, but four sessions in the nation's fractured parliament have failed to reach consensus on a candidate to succeed him.

Aoun said in an interview an 11th-hour political move to address the constitutional crisis might be possible, but added there is no final decision on what that could involve.

Aoun's presidency is inextricably linked in the minds of many Lebanese to their country's worst days since the 1975-1990 civil war, with the financial crisis that began in 2019 and the deadly Beirut port blast of 2020.

In the days after the blast, Aoun said he had received a report about the roughly 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate stored at the port of Beirut weeks before they detonated and killed some 220 people.

Aoun's son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who was put on a sanctions list by the United States in 2020 for alleged corruption, has presidential ambitions, according to political sources.

Bassil has denied the allegations of corruption, and Aoun said on Saturday the sanctions would not stop Bassil from eventually being a presidential candidate.

Once he's elected president, the sanctions will go away, Aoun said, without elaborating.

In his final week as President, Aoun signed a US-brokered deal delineating Lebanon's southern maritime border with Israel - a modest diplomatic breakthrough that would allow both countries to extract natural gas from maritime deposits.

He said powerful Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, which sent unarmed drones over Israel and threatened to attack its offshore rigs multiple times, had served as a deterrent that had helped keep the negotiations going in Lebanon's favour.

"It wasn't coordinated (with the government). It was an initiative taken by Hezbollah and it was useful," Aoun said, adding that the Lebanese army "had no role" in this regard.

He said the deal paved the way for gas discoveries that could be Lebanon's last chance at recovering from a three-year financial meltdown that has cost the currency 95% of its value and pushed 80% of the population into poverty.

Lebanon has otherwise made slow progress on a checklist of reforms required to gain access to US$3 billion in financing from the International Monetary Fund.

Aoun said he would stay involved in politics in Lebanon even after he leaves office, particularly to fight Central Bank governor Riad Salameh, one of the president's main political adversaries.

Salameh is being investigated in Lebanon and at least five countries abroad on charges of corruption and embezzlement of public funds, charges he denies.

 

 

 

 

Israel-Lebanon maritime deal

The Israel-Lebanon maritime deal is in the interests of both countries. The deal can help unlock energy security for both states at a time when the world needs new and secure natural gas supplies.

Israel has much to gain from the current talks, but it does not mean Israel must make a deal at any price. Lebanon appears to be pushing for last-minute changes to a US-backed deal that President Joe Biden’s energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, has worked on for the past year.

Prime Minister Yair Lapid said Israel will not compromise on its security and economic interests. Several entwined issues are at stake.

Israel wants the Karish gas field to begin production, and Energean, which developed the field, is ready to move ahead. 

Hezbollah is openly threatening the field – not only launching drones, but prodding Lebanon to increase rhetoric against Israel’s exploitation of these resources off its coast.

The deal that has been worked on with US support would see Israel receive royalties from gas that Lebanon extracts in the disputed area of the Mediterranean Sea, but Israel would concede a triangle of economic waters. 

Lebanon only recently asserted more claims to these waters. Lebanon also wants to develop a field called Qana that extends into areas Israel claims.

The current deal would preserve a line of buoys that extends some five kilometers off the coast into the sea. 

Then the line would deviate slightly and give Lebanon more of the area it wants. It appears that this would be in the interests of other countries as well, such as France.

Lebanese block 9 of its offshore concessions could lead to exploitation of the Qana field, but Lebanon does not want Israel receiving any share of profits from that field. 

This creates complexity. In the past, it was assumed that trade and economics could underpin peace in the region. Lebanon needs investment, and Hezbollah is busy siphoning off money from the state. 

The upcoming Israeli election also hangs over the current discussions. Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu has opposed Lapid’s decisions and has openly said the deal, which he views as surrender to Hezbollah threats, would not bind a new government that he seeks to establish after the November election.

This could create another strange situation in which one Israeli government accepts the deal and the next tears it up, the way the US shifted tactics on the Iran deal. 

This would lead to tensions and accusations that Israel is then crossing the line and give Hezbollah an excuse to resist by firing rockets.

 

 

 

 

               

 

Israel snubs Lebanese request for changes in maritime deal

Lebanon said US-brokered talks to demarcate its maritime border with longtime foe Israel were at a make or break point on Thursday after Israel rejected revisions to a draft deal requested by Beirut, throwing years of diplomatic efforts into doubt.

The draft, which has not been made public, had a warm preliminary reception from the Israeli and Lebanese governments. But amid domestic opposition in both countries, Lebanon on Tuesday sought amendments from the US envoy.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid was updated on the details of the substantial changes Lebanon is seeking to make and instructed the negotiating team to reject them, an Israeli official said.

A spokesperson for the US embassy in Jerusalem said the parties were at a critical stage in the negotiations and the gaps have narrowed.

According to Israeli media, a main sticking point was over recognition of a line of demarcation buoys Israel has strung out to sea from its coast. Lebanon worries about any action that may connote formal acceptance of a shared land border.

Lebanon, which has never recognized the state of Israel, with any broader peace deal beyond the horizon - has also said Israel will earn no royalties from the Lebanese share of gas in the Qana prospect.

Top Lebanese negotiator Elias Bou Saab told Reuters on Thursday that he would only respond to official statements and not to media reports on Israel's stance.

He said the deal is 90% done but the remaining 10% could make it or break it, adding that he was in constant contact with US mediator Amos Hochstein.

Israel has been preparing to activate a gas rig, Karish, which is outside Qana. Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah made veiled threats about Karish that lent urgency to the talks.

Israel previously presented the draft deal with Lebanon, if finalized, as securing Karish. But on Thursday, it changed tack.

Israel is now pressing ahead with Karish, regardless of progress or no progress in the talks, whereas before it cast a successful deal as a means of securing Karish.

"Israel will produce gas from the Karish rig as soon as it is possible to do so," the Israeli official said, adding that negotiations will "stop immediately" in the face of any threats.

Defence Minister Benny Gantz further hardened the tone, saying in a speech that "Lebanon will bear a heavy military price" if Hezbollah attacks, and he put forces on alert.

 

United States brokering Israel-Lebanon deal

The Biden administration is on the verge of a significant breakthrough in Middle East relations as it quietly pursues an agreement between Israel and Lebanon on territorial maritime borders.

The negotiations appear to be closing in on the finish line amid intensive negotiations between US, Israeli and Lebanese officials that took place last week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. 

The administration has taken pains to downplay the significance of the potential agreement — concerned that anything that appears to look like normalization between Israel and Lebanon would set off a catastrophic fight with Hezbollah, which has an estimated 150,000 missiles positioned on Israel’s northern border.

But if successful, an agreement between Lebanon and Israel — with Beirut implicitly recognizing Israel’s legitimacy while the two sides are at war — would mark a tremendous victory for the Biden administration’s use of diplomacy to advance Middle East stability. 

“It would be a very significant win for the Biden administration, and frankly it would be a significant win for regional stability and de-escalation of tensions,” said Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser in the Middle East and North Africa Center at the US Institute of Peace. 

The negotiations are being led by ​​Amos Hochstein, Special Presidential Coordinator for International Energy. He launched mediations between Israel and Lebanon in mid-October, following up on talks that were initiated during the former Trump administration in 2020. 

The talks have gained little attention, in part because of greater world crises such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But this also reflects an effort on the part of the administration to maintain a low profile. 

“I think this is being managed quite well on the part of the administration and Amos Hochstein in particular,” Yacoubian said.

“He’s really been very diligent in his shuttle diplomacy. I think he’s demonstrating, really, and he’s embodying what the hard work of diplomacy looks like and, if there is a deal, what it can yield.” 

The agreement is expected to draw a border between Israel and Lebanon in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and demarcate claims that both Beirut and Jerusalem identify as their exclusive economic zone. It would sort out how the two nations could benefit from exploration of the Karish natural gas field.

Lebanese officials are signaling major progress in reaching a deal. Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati said during his speech at the General Assembly that “we have achieved tangible progress which we hope will reach its aspired conclusions soon.”

Part of the progress is a consensus between Israel and Lebanon on the benefits of resolving the maritime boundary. Israel wants to avoid conflict with Lebanon and generally advance its relations in the region, and Lebanon is in dire need of any economic benefit that would come from being able to explore gas extraction in this part of the Mediterranean Sea. 

While the agreement on the maritime boundary is unlikely to yield immediate economic benefits for Lebanon, which is viewed as being in a crisis economic state, it is viewed as a positive development. 

Energean, the Greek-British energy company that holds a license to develop the Karish gas field, said in a September press release, “It remains on track to deliver first gas from the Karish development project within weeks.”

The development of the fields could help European countries wean themselves off Russian natural gas.

“As Europeans seek substitutes for Russian energy sources, the eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important in that regard,” Yacoubian said. 

Hezbollah that controls southern Lebanon and holds immense power in the country, has over the last few weeks increased the number of its threatening statements against Israel over the border negotiations and gas extraction. 

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah said last week, “We are following up on the negotiations and all our eyes are on Karish and our missiles are locked on Karish.” He warned Israel against extracting gas in the absence of an agreement with Lebanon. 

“The red line to us is that there should not be extraction from Karish,” he said, in televised remarks reported by the Naharnet news site. 

A spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid responded in a statement that gas extraction is not connected to the US-mediated negotiations. 

“Israel believes that it is both possible and necessary to reach an agreement on a maritime line between Lebanon and Israel. … The production of gas from the Karish rig is not connected to these negotiations, and the production of gas from the rig will commence without delay, as soon as it is possible,” the statement read.

In a briefing with reporters on Wednesday in New York, Lapid said, “Israel is strong and knows how to defend itself” if an agreement is not reached with Lebanon addressing Israel’s “security, diplomatic and economic needs,” Axios reported. 

Yacoubian, of the Institute of Peace, said that Nasrallah’s threats appear to be “theater.” 

“It’s a lot of saber rattling, but that might be because it’s a prelude to a negotiated agreement,” she said. 

“In other words, saber rattling as a way of Hezbollah establishing itself as an actor working towards Lebanon’s benefit — so that when this deal comes, they shape their role in that way, that it was partly their pressure, their strong line on defending Lebanon’s interests that helped get Lebanon a deal.”

Hawkish regional watchers believe Nasrallah’s threats are laying the groundwork for an outbreak of conflict. Israel views Hezbollah as one of its greatest security threats and an arm of Iran’s greater ambitions to attack the Jewish state.

“The Iranians, in their stomach, are trying to take revenge against Israel,” said Eitan Dangot, President of the Association of Oil and Gas Exploration Industries in Israel and former Chief of the Israel Home Front Command. 

“Hezbollah is not working for the defense of Lebanon; Iran is giving it the green light to open its missile storage on Israel.”

Hezbollah’s determined threats against Israel are a point the Israel Defense Forces constantly reinforce to the world. The IDF has destroyed, but preserved, at least half a dozen Hezbollah tunnels dug under Israel’s northern border.

They regularly bring international visitors to tour the tunnels, marching them 80 meters, or more than 260 feet, underground to view the sophisticated engineering needed to burrow through solid bedrock and demonstrate what they say is Hezbollah’s determination to wage war on Israel.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield visited the tunnels in November, and the IDF tweeted a photo of a delegation of ambassadors and diplomats visiting the tunnels in March.  

‏”Seeing the tunnel with your own eyes changes your perception completely. Only then can you truly understand the lengths Hezbollah goes to in order to harm Israeli civilians,” Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, IDF International spokesperson, told The Hill.