Four months of war in Sudan

According to an article by Zeinab Mohammed Salih, the war between Sudan’s generals is entering its fourth month with no deal in sight. The conflict has receded from the headlines while negotiations have stalled. Without a resolution soon, war and displacement threaten to destabilize the entire region.

Sudan’s war between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), currently raging in the capital city Khartoum and the Darfur and Kordofan regions, has entered its fourth month with no sign of a deal to stop it.  

The war has already claimed the lives of thousands of people who have died from direct fire, and some from hunger—trapped inside their houses and unable to find food due to intense street fighting. Many buried their loved ones inside their own homes.  

Some international and regional peace efforts took place at the war's start but with insignificant effect on the situation on the ground. Most notably, in the first few days, the United States and Saudi Arabia tried to secure ceasefires to create humanitarian corridors. However, of the 12 ceasefires declared, none were successful. The fighting has never stopped, leaving millions of civilians with zero access to lifesaving aid.  

Sudan quickly fell out of the news cycle a few weeks after the war began when foreign nationals were successfully evacuated—resembling Afghanistan in August 2021 when the United States pulled out its troops after 20 years.

Stories of Sudanese and their suffering have become far less interesting to international audiences than the war in Ukraine and the quick response by the West.  

Sudan typically only makes it into the headlines if the story is attached to Wagner Group and Russia. Though some reports suggested that the Wagner group has links with the RSF, no evidence supports that claim. 

Intelligent sources in Libya say that the RSF is getting support from the United Arab Emirates through Wagner-controlled areas in the Central African Republic.

This may be correct, especially after the RSF captured the strategic army base of Om Dafoug on the border between the two countries. The RSF now has control all the way from Om Dafoug to Omdurman, the twin city of Khartoum on the west bank of the Nile River. 

This control makes it easy for them to smuggle weapons to the capital city, Khartoum. A media report suggested that at least 28 flights between the UAE and CAR took place within two weeks in May, with stops at the Entebbe airport in Uganda.  

The US and Saudi Arabia, with their huge sway over the fighting generals, Abdulfatah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese army, and Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (better known as Hemti), head of the RSF, seem not to be bothered about the struggle of millions of us who are now trapped in the cities of Khartoum, Darfur and al-Obied. This was demonstrated very clearly when they announced they would be pausing talks in Jeddah for Eid al-Adha festivals while the Sudanese people remained under constant bombardment by the army’s air force and heavy artillery and attacked in their houses by the RSF in the capital and by its militias in Darfur.  

Some economic sanctions have been imposed on both warring parties by the United States, freezing the assets of some companies that are known to support them financially. A similar step was taken by the United Kingdom last week but had no effect. The warring parties have maintained their businesses all along, as did the former regime of Omar al-Bashir, which survived 20 years of sanctions by the US by forming alliances with China and Russia. The army’s supporters here in Khartoum suggest the same to alleviate pressure from these sanctions.  

With its strong connections to Russia, the army sent a delegation to Moscow earlier this month headed by Malik Agar, the new deputy head of the sovereign council. The army showed its potential to follow in the footsteps of Bashir by attacking Western representatives. Its delegates declared the head of the United Nations mission in the country, Volker Perthes, “persona non grata” two weeks after the army chief accused him of inflaming the conflict and called for his removal. After that, they refused the initiative from the regional body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), currently headed by Kenya, instead accepting Egypt’s initiative, the summit on Sudan, despite producing the same recommendations.  

Eighty percent of hospitals have been forced to close, with very few pharmacies still functioning. Food prices have increased sharply, and many have limited access after the army hit many markets in Khartoum and Omdurman, killing dozens of civilians, including women and children. Many people have died of avoidable diseases for lack of healthcare. Furthermore, the RSF bombed people inside their medical facilities. 

About 50% of the city’s population has fled. Those who remain are here for financial or health reasons, and many more who stay hail from provinces where fierce fighting is ongoing, like Kordofan and Darfur in Western Sudan.  

The city and all its strategic locations have been occupied by RSF fighters, except three, the Wadi Saeedna airbase, the engineer corps, and the al-Shajara artillery corps in Khartoum.

It was not difficult for them to take control despite being only half the size of the regular army, which controls 80% of the economy.

All the income goes to the pockets of the generals, while the soldiers only earn about $16 a month. Despite this leverage, the RSF seems more willing to negotiate, while army leaders refuse.  
 Many media reports suggest that former regime elements have been fighting alongside the army. It seems that they have influenced decisions within the army to the point where the former rulers, the National Congress Party, issued a statement warning General Shams al-Din Kabashi, who announced the potential start of negotiations with the RSF in Jeddah and that the army is open to have a civilian government until upcoming elections, against such a move.  

In order for the United States and the international community to make the army and the RSF sit down and talk seriously to end the misery of the Sudanese people, they need to use their leverage over the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

According to some reports from Chad, the UAE managed to send military equipment through Amdjarass airport near the Sudanese border to the RSF. Many reports have suggested that Egypt has also intervened militarily using its air force to hit two RSF convoys, one coming from Libya and the other from Kordofan to Omdurman. Unless pressure is put on the UAE and Egypt to stop supporting the two warring sides, the prolonged conflict will destabilize the whole region from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa.  

The Kenyan president, William Ruto, has been the only public leader to warn against crimes in Darfur that might reach the level of genocide after the killing of thousands of civilians from the Massaleet community, including the governor and the brother of the traditional leader, in one city by Arab militias backed by the RSF. This has led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands more people to neighboring Chad.  

Monitoring the ceasefire needs on-the-ground mechanisms that can be established through sending peacekeeping forces to Khartoum and Darfur with a limited mission—all past ceasefires have been violated by the two sides for lack of monitoring. The suggestion of the IGAD to send eastern African forces might lead to huge resistance from the former regimes’ military elements, which could lead to resurfacing of jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and ISIS; all have cells in Khartoum and some of their members have broken out of Sudanese prisons.  

The best solution would be to exert pressure on both sides—as the United States did when the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between North and South Sudan was signed in 2005. In order to do so, it must get all the rebel groups in South Kordofan and Darfur and the civilians in Khartoum to participate.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Syria: Welcome back into Arab League

Arab foreign ministers welcomed Syria’s formal return to their 22-member bloc after 12 years of isolation. Syrian delegation, headed by Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, is attending the preparatory meeting of foreign ministers in Jeddah ahead of the 32nd Arab League Summit scheduled for Friday.

Saudi Arabia took over the rotating presidency of the Arab League summit as Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf handed over the presidency to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. The foreign ministers started finalizing the agenda and preparing draft resolutions of the summit.

In his presidential address, Prince Faisal bin Farhan underscored the need for unity among Arab countries in order to overcome common challenges and difficulties as well as to confront major global challenges. The foreign minister welcomed the Arab delegations, especially the Syrian delegation.

He emphasized that the world is going through great challenges that warrant us to stand united to confront them. “Everyone must innovate new mechanisms to confront the challenges faced by our countries,” he said while underscoring the need for joint action by Arab countries for the advancement of their peoples.

The foreign ministers stressed the importance of a ceasefire in Sudan to ensure the safety of its citizens and called for the crisis to be treated as an internal matter. The summit comes at a time of major political developments, including the Sudan crisis, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Syria’s readmission to the body, all of which were at the top of the agenda of the ministerial meeting preparatory for Friday’s summit.

This year’s summit differs from previous years as it is the first to be attended by Syria since the country’s membership was suspended in 2011. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will attend the summit. Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit welcomed the high-level Syrian delegation.

At the outset of the session, Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf called for resolving the Arab differences within the Arab House, stressing that the upcoming summit seeks to unite the Arab world in confronting the challenges in the region.

Attaf emphasized that Arab countries should focus on joint Arab action to confront the global challenges. He also stressed the need to pay attention to the changes taking place in the world, because they will change the balance of power. He supported Saudi Arabia’s efforts for the cessation of hostilities in Sudan and resolve the crisis. He also emphasized that the Libyan-Libyan dialogue alone will restore stability to Libya.

Attaf underlined the need to exert efforts to achieve Palestinian reconciliation and national unity. He also supported the aspirations of the Yemeni people to restore their security and stability. The minister hoped that Lebanon would witness an understanding among its people to solve its internal crisis.

In his speech, Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit said the Israeli government is responsible for the deterioration of the situation in the Palestinian territories, warning that the situation there is approaching a phase of explosion.

Aboul Gheit pointed out that there are positive indications from Iran and Turkey to stop their interference in the affairs of Arab countries. He stressed that the Jeddah summit is an opportunity to put an end to armaments in Sudan.

The ministerial preparatory meeting was preceded by several other meetings, the most important of which were the meeting of the Quartet Arab Ministerial Committee concerned with following up the developments of the Iranian file, and the meeting of the Arab Ministerial Committee concerned with following up Turkish interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries. There was also a meeting of the open-ended Arab Ministerial Committee to support the State of Palestine.

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette

Sudan conflict threatens supply of key soft drink ingredient

Sudan's eruption into conflict has left international consumer goods makers racing to shore up supplies of gum arabic, one of the country's most sought-after products and a key ingredient in everything from fizzy drinks to candy and cosmetics.

About 70% of the world's supply of gum arabic, for which there are few substitutes, comes from the acacia trees in the Sahel region that runs through Africa's third-largest country, which is being torn apart by fighting between the army and a paramilitary force.

Wary of Sudan's persistent insecurity, companies dependent on the product, such as Coca Cola and Pepsico, have long stockpiled supplies, some keeping between three-to-six-months’ worth to avoid being caught short, exporters and industry sources told Reuters.

However, prior conflicts have tended to be focused in far-flung regions such as Darfur. This time, the capital Khartoum has been brought to a standstill in the fighting that broke out on April 15, 2023 paralyzing the economy and disrupting basic communications.

"Depending on how long the conflict continues there may well be ramifications for finished goods on the shelf - branded goods made by household names," said Richard Finnegan, a procurement manager at Kerry Group, a supplier of gum arabic to most major food and beverage firms.

Finnegan estimated that current stockpiles will run out in five-to-six months, a view echoed by Martijn Bergkamp, a partner at Dutch supplier FOGA Gum who estimated between three-to-six months.

Cloetta AB, a Swedish confectioner which makes Lakerol lozenges that use gum arabic, has ample stock of the ingredient, a spokesperson said in an email.

Global production of gum arabic is about 120,000 tons a year, worth US$1.1 billion, according to estimates cited by Kerry Group. Most is found in the gum belt that stretches 500 miles from the East to the West of Africa where the arable land meets the desert, including in Ethiopia, Chad, Somalia and Eritrea.

Twelve exporters, suppliers and distributors contacted by Reuters said trade in the gum, which helps bind together food and drink ingredients, has ground to a halt.

Right now it’s impossible to source additional gum arabic from rural parts of Sudan because of the turmoil and road blockages, said Mohamad Alnoor, who runs Gum Arabic USA, which sells the product to consumers as a health supplement.

Kerry Group and other suppliers, including Sweden's Gum Sudan, said communicating with contacts on the ground has been difficult and Port Sudan - from where product is shipped - has been prioritizing civilian evacuations.

“Our suppliers are struggling to secure necessities because of the conflict," Jinesh Doshi, managing director of Vijay Bros, an importer based in Mumbai, said. "Both buyers and sellers are clueless on when things will normalize.”

Alwaleed Ali, who owns AGP Innovations Co, a gum arabic exporting business, said his customers are looking for alternative countries to source gum arabic.

He said he sells the gum to Nexira SAS, based in Rouen, France, and Westchester, Illinois-based Ingredion Inc., two major ingredients suppliers to makers of products such as pet food, fizzy drinks and nutrition bars.

A spokesperson for Ingredion said in an email, "We have proactive measures in place across our business to ensure the continuity of supply for our customers."

PepsiCo declined to comment on supply chain and commodity issues, while Coca-Cola did not return a request for comment.

"For companies like Pepsi and Coke, they can't exist without having gum arabic in their formulations," Dani Haddad, marketing and development director of Agrigum, a global top-ten supplier, said.

In their manufacturing process, food and drink companies use a spray-dried version of the gum that is powder-like, industry sources said. While cosmetics and printing manufacturers may be able to use substitutes, there is no alternative to gum arabic in fizzy drinks, where it prevents ingredients from separating.

In a sign of its importance to the consumer goods industry, gum arabic has been exempt from U.S. sanctions against Sudan since the 1990s, both because it's a critical commodity and for fear of creating a black market.

Sudanese nomads tap the pebbly, amber-colored gum from acacia trees, which is then refined and packaged throughout the country. It accounts for the livelihoods of thousands of people and the more expensive variety can cost about US$3,000 a ton, according to Gum Sudan.

There is a poorer quality, cheaper gum from outside of Sudan, but the preferred ingredient is only found in acacia trees in Sudan, South Sudan and Chad, Alnoor said.

Fawaz Abbaro, the general manager of Savannah Life Company in Khartoum, said he had purchase orders and plans to export 60 to 70 tons of gum arabic but doubts he'll be able to due to the conflict.

"It's not stable even to get food or drink. It's not going to be stable for business," Abbaro said. "All trading will be jammed for the time being."

 

Saudi foreign minister holds talks on Sudan with counterparts

According to Saudi Gazette, Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia discussed the developments in Sudan with counterparts during phone calls on Sunday.

Prince Faisal and UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly discussed the rapid development of events in Sudan, and the conditions of stranded foreigners.

They stressed the importance of stopping the military escalation, providing necessary protection for Sudanese civilians and residents on its soil, and providing safe humanitarian corridors for those wishing to leave Sudan.

Prince Faisal and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell discussed the efforts being exerted to stop the military escalation between the conflicting parties in Sudan.

They also discussed the end of the violence, and provide the necessary protection for Sudanese civilians and residents on its territories.

The two sides also reviewed the latest regional and international developments and the efforts being exerted in this regard, especially in enhancing international peace and security.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari congratulated the Saudi foreign minister on the successful evacuation of Saudi citizens and other nationals from Sudan to the Kingdom.

Bilawal Zardari also commended the Saudi authorities for their high efficiency and professional handling of the evacuation operations, which contributed to their success.

 

Water scarcity making Middle Eat more vulnerable

The Middle East is one of the driest regions in the world. The scarcity of water has often been touted as a source of national and interstate disputes in the area. Some scholars have predicted for some time the possibility of deadly national altercations and regional clashes over the distribution of water resources in parts of the region.

Although no full-blown war has erupted so far, two current episodes illustrate this point: 1) public protests in the Iranian province of Khuzestan and the growing discord between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over water dispensation from the River Nile. With climate change causing more droughts, the potential for conflict over water cannot be underestimated.

In recent days, the oil-rich southwestern province of Khuzestan, has experienced public protests over a shortage of water as the province and all of Iran have been hit by one of the worst droughts in modern times. 

The protests have rapidly spread into other parts of Iran, which has come on top of the damage wrought by Covid-19 and US sanctions. The security forces’ The treatment of the protesters by security forces has resulted in several deaths, with many injured and scores arrested.

The protests, at which ‘death to the Supreme Leader’, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been loudly chanted. Khamenei has now called on the security forces to be more understanding of the protestors and the outgoing moderate and reformist President Hassan Rouhani has joined him in that message.

The task will soon fall on president-elect Ebrahim Raisi, when he assumes office in early August. Since Raisi shares Khamenei’s conservative Islamic platform, he can use his position to be innovative.

While Iran is unlikely to go to war over water with any of its neighbors, the same cannot be firmly said about some of those downstream on the River Nile —the second longest, if not the longest, river in the world, yet with a relatively small reservoir capacity.

Ethiopia has been getting closer to a serious dispute with Egypt and Sudan ever since Addis Ababa decided in 2011 to build what it calls the hydroelectric Grand Renaissance Dam for securing more water for developmental purposes.

Egypt, which regards the Nile River as its ‘lifeline’, and Sudan, which has concerns about the security of its own supply, has seriously objected to Addis Ababa’s unilateral start of the second phase of the dam project.

The filling of the reservoir of the second phase over a period of two years will affect the amount of water to which Egypt claims to be entitled.

Under a bilateral Egypt–Sudan agreement in 1959, the two sides agreed to increase Egypt’s share to 55.5 billion cubic meters and Sudan’s to 18.5 billion. But the agreement isn’t recognized by Ethiopia. It has refused to budge on its determination to go ahead with the second phase, irrespective of serious objections by Cairo and Khartoum.

US mediation in 2020 and ongoing similar action by the African Union have failed to produce any result. In early July 2021, the issue was put to the United Nations Security Council to consider one submission by Ethiopia and another by Egypt and Sudan for a resolution. But a conclusion couldn’t be reached.

One of the council’s permanent members claimed that the body didn’t have sufficient expertise to deal with the issue. The council as a whole urged the three parties to avoid unilateral action and reach a negotiated settlement. In a recent article, former Egyptian foreign minister and ambassador to the US Nabil Fahmy warned that ‘sooner or later confrontation seems inevitable, unless we see a sudden and unexpected change in Ethiopia’s position’.

Fahmy has echoed a view that a number of scholars have held about the future possibility of war in the Middle East over water rather than oil.

Miriam Lowi’s 1995 book, Water and power, is very telling. The Khuzestan and Ethiopian dam episodes raise another issue that adds to volatility in the Middle East while the tragedy of climate change remains unaddressed.

Israel saves Pakistan face

According a Reuters news, Israeli Regional Cooperation Minister, Ofir Akunis said there were two main candidate countries to become the next to move towards normal ties with Israel. He did not name either but said one is in the Gulf and could be Oman but would not be Saudi Arabia. The other, further to the east, is a “Muslim country that is not small” but is not Pakistan, he said.

Asked if a fifth country could sign up before Trump steps down on 20th January 2021, Ofir Akunis told Israel’s Ynet TV, “We are working in that direction.”

 “I believe ... there will be an American announcement about another country that is going public with the normalization of relations with Israel and, in essence, with the infrastructure for an accord — a peace accord,” he said.

Israel is working towards formalizing relations with a fifth Muslim country, possibly in Asia, during US President Donald Trump’s term, an Israeli cabinet minister said on Wednesday. The White House has brokered rapprochements bet­ween Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco this year.

Indonesia, the most populous Muslim country, said last week it would not recognize Israel as long as Palestinian statehood demands remain unmet. Malaysia has signalled a similar policy.

“Malaysia’s firm stance on the Palestinian issue will not change,” Deputy Foreign Minister Kamarudin Jaffar told the country’s senate on Wednesday, adding that Kuala Lumpur would not interfere in other nations’ decisions on Israel.

In Dhaka, a foreign ministry official said Bangladesh was not interested in establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. “Our position remains the same,” he reiterated.

Oman has praised the US-brokered diplomatic drive but has not commented on its own prospects of forging Israel ties.