Pakistan: Two rival parties agree to form new government

Reportedly, Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto's parties in Pakistan have reached a deal to form a government. Bhutto's PPP said it would help Sharif's PML-N elect a prime minister after last week's election. The two parties were previously in a coalition that ousted Imran Khan from power in 2022.

This time, independent candidates backed by his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party unexpectedly won the most seats.

PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari told a press conference that although his party and PML-N had contested elections against each other, they had come together in the interests of the nation.

"It is not necessary that [we fight] forever," Zardari said.

The PML-N said in a statement that both parties had agreed to cooperate in the interests of political stability.

The results, in which independents backed by the PTI took 93 out of 266 directly elected seats, had left voters uncertain about which parties would form the next government.

Sharif's PML-N won 75 seats while Bhutto's PPP came third with 54 seats.

In addition, parties will be allocated more seats from the 70 reserved for women and non-Muslims. These additional seats are not available to independent candidates.

According to PML-N Marriyum Aurangzeb, party leader Nawaz Sharif plans to nominate his brother Shehbaz to be prime minister. Both men have previously served as prime minister.

Bhutto says his party will help elect a PML-N prime minister, he earlier said it would not take any cabinet positions.

Imran Khan and his party have continued to emphasize that they believe the elections were rigged against them and plan to challenge the results.

Khan said, "I warn against the misadventure of forming a government with stolen votes. Such daylight robbery will not only be disrespect to the citizens but will also push the country's economy further into a downward spiral."

 

Pakistan: Will general elections be held in October 2023?

Besides facing dire economic challenges, Pakistan has been passing through a political crisis as well. The political quagmire has exacerbated. Investors’ confidence already shattered amid fears of default on foreign loans, has been battered further by uncertainties hovering over the elections schedule. This raises the million dollar question will the Elections be held in 2023.

The Elections for the National Assembly have become due by October 2023 as per the constitution. The dissolution of two Provincial Assemblies ahead of the October schedule and the judicial orders to hold early elections makes the situation untenable.

According to Polls conducted by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Topline Securities, 60-70% respondents feel elections will be held before October or in October 2023, while 20-30% think it will be delayed.

If National Elections are held around October 2023, there is high probability that Khan led PTI may get highest seats in National Assembly, surveys and polls forecast, unless Khan meets with disqualification, party breakup, etc. due to under trial cases against him.

With risk that present prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif may be disqualified by Supreme Court on contempt, another much talked about scenario has been that the present coalition government (PDM) might get its office term extended beyond October 2023. The government might invoke the Article 232 of the constitution under the garb of ‘emergency’ in the country on the pretext of security concerns or/and financial crisis.

Hypothetically, if the government undertakes such measures, matter might be challenged by the opposition in the court of law and the court may give its ruling over the government decision. It could linger the matter further and crisis may persist persist.

Another option could be the military rule. The country has witnessed direct military rule for 33 out of 75 years in Pakistan. Chances of direct military rule are slim, 10% as per our Poll.

To cool down the situation efforts of dialogue between political parties to sort out this elections related matter has started. This out of the court settlement, through dialogues can be a catalyst to cooling political heat and lead to any decision regarding the Elections for the national and provincial assemblies.

The brokerage house believes, this uncertain political theatre would keep on reflecting on the stock market, economy and currency. However, once the truce is carved the current political battles, the focus will be imminently back on economy.

The brokerage house in one of its earlier reports “Pakistan’s Debt Restructuring” dated December 03, 2022 and report “Pakistan Debt Restructuring – Part 2” dated January 24, 2023 the crucial factor or the Achilles heel of the current debt is the short term rollovers that have increased by 9 times to over US$12 billion since 2015.

The brokerage house is of the view that external debt restructuring is the litmus test, the mode of restructuring, and how orderly or disorderly are done, will determine Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities.

Pakistan new government should ideally try to convert its short-term external loans with long term with the help of friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia and UAE etc. If that is not doable, then Pakistan should try G-20 common framework of debt restructuring. These are less painful and will help in economic recovery.

 

 

Saudi foreign minister holds talks on Sudan with counterparts

According to Saudi Gazette, Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia discussed the developments in Sudan with counterparts during phone calls on Sunday.

Prince Faisal and UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly discussed the rapid development of events in Sudan, and the conditions of stranded foreigners.

They stressed the importance of stopping the military escalation, providing necessary protection for Sudanese civilians and residents on its soil, and providing safe humanitarian corridors for those wishing to leave Sudan.

Prince Faisal and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell discussed the efforts being exerted to stop the military escalation between the conflicting parties in Sudan.

They also discussed the end of the violence, and provide the necessary protection for Sudanese civilians and residents on its territories.

The two sides also reviewed the latest regional and international developments and the efforts being exerted in this regard, especially in enhancing international peace and security.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari congratulated the Saudi foreign minister on the successful evacuation of Saudi citizens and other nationals from Sudan to the Kingdom.

Bilawal Zardari also commended the Saudi authorities for their high efficiency and professional handling of the evacuation operations, which contributed to their success.

 

Iran can fulfill Pakistan’s energy needs, says President Raisi

According to Tasnim News Agency, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi expressed the country’s readiness to satisfy Pakistan’s demand for oil, gas and electricity. In a meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, held in Tehran, Raisi hailed the close ties between the two neighbors, saying the people of Iran and Pakistan are like relatives.

“We consider Pakistan’s security to be our own security,” he said, adding, “Some do not like the good relations between the two Muslim, neighboring, friendly and brotherly nations, but the development of relations leads to economic prosperity and more security for the nations of the region.”

There are no restrictions in Tehran for the development of relations with Islamabad, Raisi noted, saying, “We are ready to promote comprehensive cooperation with Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran has the necessary capacity to meet Pakistan’s needs in various fields, including oil, gas and electricity.”

The Iranian president called the fields of energy, transit and cooperation and coordination in the regional issues and crises as important aspects of relations between the two countries, his official website reported.

For his part, Bilawal expressed satisfaction with the visit to Iran, adding, “As much as I am a child of Pakistan, I am also a child of Iran.”

Thanking Iran for exporting electricity to Pakistan, the Foreign Minister said, “We are fully prepared to complete and conclude the previous talks in the fields of security, trade and energy.”

Pakistani Foreign Minister also praised the government of Iran for its assistance in extinguishing the widespread wildfires in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.

 

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari invited by Antony Blinken to attend food security meeting at UN headquarters

Reportedly top-level contacts between Pakistan and the United States recommenced on Friday with Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and inviting him to attend a food security meeting at the UN headquarters in New York on May 18, 2022.

The two-day ministerial conference will focus on the threat to global food security, triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and will be chaired by Blinken himself.

Such encouraging statements were rare during the PTI regime and the phone call to Bilawal was the first contact between the foreign ministers of the two countries in quite a while. On September 24, 2021, then Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi had met Secretary Blinken on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York.

Pakistan is also exploring the possibility of bringing Bilawal to Washington for a separate meeting with Secretary Blinken. “Why wait? Why not try to arrange a meeting now?” said a diplomatic source when asked if Pakistan was seeking a Bilawal-Blinken meeting later this month.

 “Received a call from Secretary Blinken. Grateful for warm felicitations on my assumption of office,” Bilawal said in a tweet he posted after the call.

“Exchanged views on strengthening mutually beneficial, broad-based relationship, promotion of peace, development and security and agreed engagement with mutual respect is the way forward between the US and Pakistan,” he wrote.

The two-day ministerial meeting that Pakistan’s young Foreign Minister has been invited to precedes a UN Security Council debate on ‘Conflict and Food Security’.

The US says that since the February 24 invasion, Russia has blocked Ukraine’s ports, causing the suspension of food supplies to the Middle East and Africa.

Pakistan’s participation in a UN meeting that highlights the problems caused by the Russian invasion would be a major departure from the policies of the previous PTI government.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan clearly annoyed the US and other Western powers by visiting Moscow on the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Later, he claimed that the US “conspired” with Pakistani opposition parties to oust him and displays a diplomatic cable to support his claim.

Washington has rejected his claim, saying that although it backs the democratic process in Pakistan, it does not support any party or individual. Such terse exchanges between Islamabad and Washington further strained an already tense relationship.

But since Khan’s departure, the Biden administration has issued almost a dozen statements underlining its desire to re-engaging with Pakistan.

The ministerial conference in New York would be Bilawal’s first participation in a multilateral meeting since becoming foreign minister late last month.

A source, privy to the conversation, while confirming the invitation, hoped that it works out. Secretary Blinken had called to greet the new Foreign Minister, but the conversation continued for nearly fifty minutes, in which both sides discussed various aspects of the bilateral cooperation and expressed keen interest in re-engaging.

“The conversation went very well,” the source maintained.

The source also said that neither side spoke about the former PTI government’s allegation that the US conspired to topple it.

A US State Department readout of Friday’s call highlighted several key points of the conversation that focused on strengthening the bilateral relationship and working together to stabilize Afghanistan.

Spokesperson Ned Price said that Secretary Blinken reiterated the desire to strengthen our broad-based bilateral relationship. The secretary underscored the resolute US-Pakistan commitment to Afghan stability and combating terrorism. The Secretary and Foreign Minister also highlighted ongoing engagement on trade and investment, climate, energy, health, and education, Price added.

He noted that this year marks the 75th anniversary of US-Pakistani relations and “we look forward to strengthening our cooperation.”

In Islamabad, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued a statement, saying that in the phone call, Secretary Blinken expressed the desire to continue strengthening mutually beneficial US-Pakistan bilateral relationship.

Exchanging views on various aspects of US-Pakistan relations, the Foreign Minister underscored that Pakistan and the United States had a longstanding broad-based relationship, the statement added.

Bilawal said that a constructive and sustained engagement between the two countries on the basis of mutual respect and mutual interest was vital to promote peace, development and security in the region and beyond.

The Foreign Minister emphasized that Pakistan’s vision was focused on human development, regional connectivity, and a peaceful neighborhood.

Secretary Blinken also invited Pakistan to the Second Global Covid Summit, which is to be held virtually later this month.