Why Shehbaz is undermining Finance Minister?

At a time Muhammad Aurangzeb, Finance Minister needs the government’s fullest backing to conclude the crucial deal and implement tough economic reforms over the next several years, it seems that some circles are trying to undermine his role in the cabinet.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has ditched Aurangzeb twice within span of a month. His decision to name Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to the all-important Council of Common Interests (CCI) and keep Aurangzeb out of it looks like an attempt to contain his role in decision-making.

Sadly, this was not the only occasion, earlier Aurangzeb was also sidelined. The prime minister in a break from tradition, decided to chair the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) the top policy making forum. It was only after widespread criticism that he yielded the position to the finance minister.

Similarly, Aurangzeb’s role in the privatization process was also diminished by appointing Dar as head of the Cabinet Committee on Privatization.

In the CCI’s case, what exactly is the foreign minister expected to contribute to the council’s deliberations? As against this, the presence of the finance minister in the CCI — the top constitutional forum mandated to discuss and decide on matters and disputes related to the federation and the provinces — is of utmost importance at this moment because the implementation of several IMF program goals and policy reforms hinge on the active involvement of the federating units.

There is no better forum than the CCI to enlist the buy-in of the provinces on the IMF program and reforms. It can only be hoped that sense will prevail and the prime minister will replace Dar with Aurangzeb in the CCI in the larger interest of the country.

 

Dar included, Aurangzeb excluded from CCI

Reportedly, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has excluded Muhammad Aurangzeb, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue as a member of the Council of Common Interests (CCI) and included Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ishaq Dar. This has been done for the first time in the history of Council.

In the past finance minister was not always included in the CCI, yet energy minister and planning minister were included because they deal with matters of concern with provinces.

According to the notification issued by the Secretariat of Council of Common Interests on March 25, 2024, in exercise of powers conferred under Article 153 of the Constitution of Pakistan, the president on the advice of prime minister, has constituted eight Member Council of Common Interests, with effect from March 21, 2024 that include Prime Minister (Chairman); Chief Minister Balochistan (Member); Chief Minster, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Member); Chief Minister, Punjab (Member); Chief Minister, Sindh (Member); Ishaq Dar, Minister for Foreign Affairs; Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Minister for Defence and  Engr Amir Muqam, Minister for States& Frontier Region (SAFRAN).

The new notification supersedes Secretariat of CCI’s notification of January 9, 2024 issued during the term of caretaker government. Caretaker prime minister included the then Finance Minister, Dr Shamsha Akhtar, Minister for Privatisation, Fawad Hasan Fawad and Minister for Law and Justice, Ahmad Irfan Aslam as Members of the CCI.

Analysts argued that presence of finance minister and law minister in Council of Common Interests is critical as these two portfolios are required to respond to different queries raised by the provinces during the meeting.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also conferred control of Cabinet Committee on Privatisation (CCoP) to Ishaq Dar against past practice of giving it to the Finance Minister.

The caretaker government of Anwaarul Haq Kakar gave the chairmanship of CCoP to Privatisation Minister Fawad Hasan Fawad aimed at expediting actions on decisions of PC Board.

Earlier, Cabinet Division has issued a notification of Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, under the chairmanship of Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif himself. However, after massive criticism from the media, the notification was withdrawn and a new one issued giving the chairmanship to the finance minister.

 

Pakistan: Two rival parties agree to form new government

Reportedly, Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto's parties in Pakistan have reached a deal to form a government. Bhutto's PPP said it would help Sharif's PML-N elect a prime minister after last week's election. The two parties were previously in a coalition that ousted Imran Khan from power in 2022.

This time, independent candidates backed by his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party unexpectedly won the most seats.

PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari told a press conference that although his party and PML-N had contested elections against each other, they had come together in the interests of the nation.

"It is not necessary that [we fight] forever," Zardari said.

The PML-N said in a statement that both parties had agreed to cooperate in the interests of political stability.

The results, in which independents backed by the PTI took 93 out of 266 directly elected seats, had left voters uncertain about which parties would form the next government.

Sharif's PML-N won 75 seats while Bhutto's PPP came third with 54 seats.

In addition, parties will be allocated more seats from the 70 reserved for women and non-Muslims. These additional seats are not available to independent candidates.

According to PML-N Marriyum Aurangzeb, party leader Nawaz Sharif plans to nominate his brother Shehbaz to be prime minister. Both men have previously served as prime minister.

Bhutto says his party will help elect a PML-N prime minister, he earlier said it would not take any cabinet positions.

Imran Khan and his party have continued to emphasize that they believe the elections were rigged against them and plan to challenge the results.

Khan said, "I warn against the misadventure of forming a government with stolen votes. Such daylight robbery will not only be disrespect to the citizens but will also push the country's economy further into a downward spiral."

 

Pakistan polls likely to be delayed

According to Saudi Gazette, Pakistan's parliament has been formally dissolved, but polls to be held within 90 days may be delayed. The electoral commission says electoral boundaries must be redrawn to reflect fresh census data, a months-long process.

Last week, former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested and sent to jail, and then barred from politics for five years. He had openly challenged the powerful military establishment and claimed it was petrified of elections.

With President Arif Alvi's order on Wednesday to dissolve the National Assembly, a caretaker government will take charge. Outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his government have been given three days to name an interim leader.

According to an Election Commission of Pakistan official, "The elections will be held once the census is done, which will take about four months' time. As a result, the elections may be delayed till next year."

Sharif, who warned that the country cannot progress without national unity, also told reporters recently that polls may not be held this year.

Some feel the election is being delayed as the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) coalition isn't confident about winning at the polls, due to Khan's enduring popularity, as well as the effects of runaway inflation despite a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Despite their once close relationship, Khan has rattled the military like no other politician before him. Senior analyst Rasool Bakhsh Raees even reckons that the former cricket star's detention will increase his popularity.

In May, Khan's arrest on corruption charges sparked nationwide protests that saw at least eight deaths and some 1,400 arrests, amid unprecedented attacks on military property and buildings.

The 70-year old, who is appealing his conviction on graft charges, has claimed that the military's goal was to "eventually put me into prison and to crush my party."

But the rule remains the same: anyone who challenges Pakistan's military, even someone with the charisma and international stature of Khan, must go. The former cricket star is simply the latest politician since the 1970s to find this out the hard way.

Former senator Afrasiab Khattak said, “There are two systems of government operating in parallel. Now, the unsanctioned, de facto force wants to take over the parliamentary process.”

"Pakistan's military has always been powerful, but they want more powers so that their unsanctioned rule is not challenged either by politicians, activists, or journalists."

Two draconian laws were tabled in the National Assembly last week, in a bid to further enhance the powers of the military and intelligence agencies.

Proposed amendments to the century-old Official Secrets Act will broadly empower the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) to arrest citizens over "suspected breach of official secrets". In addition, a new bill recommends a three-year jail term for anyone who discloses the identity of an intelligence official.

The amendments provoked a ruckus in parliament, with both the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and PML-N's coalition partners calling the government out for passing draconian laws in haste and without discussion.

Senator Mushtaq Ahmed of Jamaat-e-Islami also warned that the Official Secrets Act amendment will grant intelligence agencies extraordinary powers of arrest and search without warrant. This will have an impact on the human rights, individual rights and press freedom across the country.

The Pakistani intelligence services are regularly accused of illegally detaining opposition members, politicians, activists and journalists, with human rights organizations noting the increasing number of enforced disappearances every month.

In the month of July alone, 157 more cases of enforced disappearances were reported, according to the government-led Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances.

The bills have been sent to President Alvi, a co-founder of the PTI, and must be signed by him before they can be legislated into law. 

Pakistan: Will general elections be held in October 2023?

Besides facing dire economic challenges, Pakistan has been passing through a political crisis as well. The political quagmire has exacerbated. Investors’ confidence already shattered amid fears of default on foreign loans, has been battered further by uncertainties hovering over the elections schedule. This raises the million dollar question will the Elections be held in 2023.

The Elections for the National Assembly have become due by October 2023 as per the constitution. The dissolution of two Provincial Assemblies ahead of the October schedule and the judicial orders to hold early elections makes the situation untenable.

According to Polls conducted by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Topline Securities, 60-70% respondents feel elections will be held before October or in October 2023, while 20-30% think it will be delayed.

If National Elections are held around October 2023, there is high probability that Khan led PTI may get highest seats in National Assembly, surveys and polls forecast, unless Khan meets with disqualification, party breakup, etc. due to under trial cases against him.

With risk that present prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif may be disqualified by Supreme Court on contempt, another much talked about scenario has been that the present coalition government (PDM) might get its office term extended beyond October 2023. The government might invoke the Article 232 of the constitution under the garb of ‘emergency’ in the country on the pretext of security concerns or/and financial crisis.

Hypothetically, if the government undertakes such measures, matter might be challenged by the opposition in the court of law and the court may give its ruling over the government decision. It could linger the matter further and crisis may persist persist.

Another option could be the military rule. The country has witnessed direct military rule for 33 out of 75 years in Pakistan. Chances of direct military rule are slim, 10% as per our Poll.

To cool down the situation efforts of dialogue between political parties to sort out this elections related matter has started. This out of the court settlement, through dialogues can be a catalyst to cooling political heat and lead to any decision regarding the Elections for the national and provincial assemblies.

The brokerage house believes, this uncertain political theatre would keep on reflecting on the stock market, economy and currency. However, once the truce is carved the current political battles, the focus will be imminently back on economy.

The brokerage house in one of its earlier reports “Pakistan’s Debt Restructuring” dated December 03, 2022 and report “Pakistan Debt Restructuring – Part 2” dated January 24, 2023 the crucial factor or the Achilles heel of the current debt is the short term rollovers that have increased by 9 times to over US$12 billion since 2015.

The brokerage house is of the view that external debt restructuring is the litmus test, the mode of restructuring, and how orderly or disorderly are done, will determine Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities.

Pakistan new government should ideally try to convert its short-term external loans with long term with the help of friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia and UAE etc. If that is not doable, then Pakistan should try G-20 common framework of debt restructuring. These are less painful and will help in economic recovery.

 

 

Pakistan: Coalition on the path to collision

Pakistanis are getting jittery because of the ‘politically loaded’ statements from the ruling coalition as well as the opposition headed by Imran Khan. 

PTI Chairman on Sunday announced that his party's long march towards Islamabad for the country's "battle for real freedom" would begin on May 25, 2022.

He said the main demands for the march to the capital were the immediate dissolution of the National Assembly and announcement of a date for the next general election.

Khan wants to charge the mob by saying, "I want people from all walks of life to come because this is Jihad, and not politics. I've decided and told all my team that we have to be ready to sacrifice our lives."

Imran indicated that the march would convert into a sit-in and continue until his demands are accepted. "We will never under any situation accept them. No matter how long we have to remain in Islamabad we will remain there."

I am surprised at the logic and narrative of Khan. If he wants fresh elections, he should ask his party members (MNAs) to resign and the coalition will have no option but to go for fresh election.

I have a feeling that Khan fears that in case his party members resign the stage would be set for the creation of an interim government and elections would be deferred till completion of the electoral reforms.

PML-N-led coalition government appears unwilling to take the blame for any unpopular decisions it may have to take to fix the economy. It wants guaranteed backing of the powerful military establishment to help it see through the remaining period of its tenure till August 2023.

The coalition believes it can handle the PTI march if other things are sorted out with the establishment. Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has expressed his wish to arrest Khan provided he gets the ‘go-ahead’, as he thinks even one day in prison would make the ousted premier forget politics.

It is highly regrettable that neither Khan nor Sharif understands the gravity of situation. Pakistan has to satisfy the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and seek the ‘fitness certificate’ to pave way for the immediate release of US$1 billion. This would be the preamble for release of funds by other multilateral financial institutions as well as friendly countries.

It is therefore suggested that the ruling junta should show some endurance and Khan should also support the incumbent government in the preparation and approval of the federal budget for the next financial, likely to be announced on June 10, 2022.

In my opinion even the most contentious issues should be discussed and resolved in the parliament and should not be taken to the streets. At present the top national priority is approval of the federal budget.  It is better that Khan and Sharif develop working relations at the earliest.

Pakistan: Shehbaz Sharif caught between a rock and a hard place

Reportedly, the PML-N-led coalition government appears unwilling to take the blame for any unpopular decisions it may have to take to fix the economy. It wants guaranteed backing of the powerful military establishment to help it see through the remaining period of its tenure till August 2023.

The coalition, despite pressure from within its ranks to clear the air about the possibility of early polls or taking unpopular decisions, is looking to the powers that can make its tenure peaceful. With each passing day, the government’s indecisiveness is taking a toll on the already sinking economy, as well as governance.

The current rulers appear reluctant to take up a ‘perceived offer’ from the establishment to enter into a bailout deal with the IMF, present the federal budget next month and immediately announce the date for polls.

This is a sticking point at the moment, the coalition parties are of the view that taking difficult decisions on the economic front for a short term will cost them dearly if elections are held early.

It appears that all allied parties have agreed on completion of the 15-month term. The problem is that if the IMF agrees, the economy can be revived. But raising petroleum prices does not seem acceptable. PML-N wants the support from ‘all sides’ to steer the country out of the crises, without being blamed for taking unpopular decisions.

Shehbaz Sharif, who has a reputation of being an efficient administrator, could not assert himself. His role seems to have been reduced to an ‘interlocutor’ among his elder brother Nawaz Sharif, the establishment and the coalition partners — PPP and JUI-F in particular.

Sharif looked very enthusiastic during the first couple of weeks after assuming charge, now seems to have lost the steam and is finding it hard to negotiate the difficult position his government finds itself in today.

The dire situation facilitates the ‘architect’ of the ruling coalition, PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari, to once again reach out to the heads of all allied parties to come up with a fresh strategy. On Saturday, he called on Shehbaz Sharif and discussed the challenges in detail.

The meeting also assumed importance as Zardari flew in to Lahore from Islamabad in the backdrop of the denial of relief to Prime Minister Shehbaz from a special court in a money laundering case that declined to confirm his bail.

A brief statement issued after the over 90-minute meeting said, “The meeting discussed the current situation, especially the economy, in the country. The coalition partners expressed their complete confidence in the leadership of the premier and praised the incumbent government for its steps for the welfare of the people.”

The fast-changing political scenario, followed by ousted premier Imran Khan’s pressure through massive rallies and an impending long march on the capital, has forced the main players of the coalition to review the strategy they formed before toppling the PTI government early last month.

The coalition believes it can handle the PTI march if other things are sorted out with the establishment. Interior Minister Sanaullah has expressed his wish to arrest Khan provided he gets the ‘go-ahead’, as he thinks even one day in prison would make the ousted premier forget politics.

PML-N Vice President Maryam Safdar also voiced her father’s views on it, saying “Nawaz Sharif is ready to say goodbye to the government, but not pass on the economic burden to the people of Pakistan, as there is no point in carrying the weight of the blunders of Imran Khan. It’s better to go to the masses to seek a fresh mandate.”

The coalition government is likely to take a decision about whether to stay in government or go for fresh polls after its final ‘backdoor talks’ with the establishment next week. The perception is, “If things don’t work out, the coalition will immediately rush for electoral and accountability reforms and to announce the date for elections.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari invited by Antony Blinken to attend food security meeting at UN headquarters

Reportedly top-level contacts between Pakistan and the United States recommenced on Friday with Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and inviting him to attend a food security meeting at the UN headquarters in New York on May 18, 2022.

The two-day ministerial conference will focus on the threat to global food security, triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and will be chaired by Blinken himself.

Such encouraging statements were rare during the PTI regime and the phone call to Bilawal was the first contact between the foreign ministers of the two countries in quite a while. On September 24, 2021, then Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi had met Secretary Blinken on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York.

Pakistan is also exploring the possibility of bringing Bilawal to Washington for a separate meeting with Secretary Blinken. “Why wait? Why not try to arrange a meeting now?” said a diplomatic source when asked if Pakistan was seeking a Bilawal-Blinken meeting later this month.

 “Received a call from Secretary Blinken. Grateful for warm felicitations on my assumption of office,” Bilawal said in a tweet he posted after the call.

“Exchanged views on strengthening mutually beneficial, broad-based relationship, promotion of peace, development and security and agreed engagement with mutual respect is the way forward between the US and Pakistan,” he wrote.

The two-day ministerial meeting that Pakistan’s young Foreign Minister has been invited to precedes a UN Security Council debate on ‘Conflict and Food Security’.

The US says that since the February 24 invasion, Russia has blocked Ukraine’s ports, causing the suspension of food supplies to the Middle East and Africa.

Pakistan’s participation in a UN meeting that highlights the problems caused by the Russian invasion would be a major departure from the policies of the previous PTI government.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan clearly annoyed the US and other Western powers by visiting Moscow on the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Later, he claimed that the US “conspired” with Pakistani opposition parties to oust him and displays a diplomatic cable to support his claim.

Washington has rejected his claim, saying that although it backs the democratic process in Pakistan, it does not support any party or individual. Such terse exchanges between Islamabad and Washington further strained an already tense relationship.

But since Khan’s departure, the Biden administration has issued almost a dozen statements underlining its desire to re-engaging with Pakistan.

The ministerial conference in New York would be Bilawal’s first participation in a multilateral meeting since becoming foreign minister late last month.

A source, privy to the conversation, while confirming the invitation, hoped that it works out. Secretary Blinken had called to greet the new Foreign Minister, but the conversation continued for nearly fifty minutes, in which both sides discussed various aspects of the bilateral cooperation and expressed keen interest in re-engaging.

“The conversation went very well,” the source maintained.

The source also said that neither side spoke about the former PTI government’s allegation that the US conspired to topple it.

A US State Department readout of Friday’s call highlighted several key points of the conversation that focused on strengthening the bilateral relationship and working together to stabilize Afghanistan.

Spokesperson Ned Price said that Secretary Blinken reiterated the desire to strengthen our broad-based bilateral relationship. The secretary underscored the resolute US-Pakistan commitment to Afghan stability and combating terrorism. The Secretary and Foreign Minister also highlighted ongoing engagement on trade and investment, climate, energy, health, and education, Price added.

He noted that this year marks the 75th anniversary of US-Pakistani relations and “we look forward to strengthening our cooperation.”

In Islamabad, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued a statement, saying that in the phone call, Secretary Blinken expressed the desire to continue strengthening mutually beneficial US-Pakistan bilateral relationship.

Exchanging views on various aspects of US-Pakistan relations, the Foreign Minister underscored that Pakistan and the United States had a longstanding broad-based relationship, the statement added.

Bilawal said that a constructive and sustained engagement between the two countries on the basis of mutual respect and mutual interest was vital to promote peace, development and security in the region and beyond.

The Foreign Minister emphasized that Pakistan’s vision was focused on human development, regional connectivity, and a peaceful neighborhood.

Secretary Blinken also invited Pakistan to the Second Global Covid Summit, which is to be held virtually later this month.

 

Pakistan must get ready to face IMF

Most of the politicians in Pakistan, being part of the ruling junta or sitting in the opposition, talk ‘bad’ about International Monetary Fund (IMF), mainly to attain political mileage. 

While every political party in opposition blames IMF of economic malice of Pakistan, but no sooner did it comes in power approaches the lender of last resort and often agrees on its (IMF) condition in the name of saving the country from eminent default.

Pakistan and IMF have a long history of love and hate relationship. Since independence Pakistan has entered into 22 bailout programs and also enjoys the distinction of the country that has entered into the largest number of programs, among the community of nations. This establishes a point, “IMF will never allow Pakistan to commit default. This has become all the more necessary after Pakistan has attained the status of ‘an atomic power’.

I am inclined to accept one of the conspiracy theories of my mentor, Masoom Shah Sindhi. He says, “IMF will never allow Pakistan to commit default, but it will also never allow Pakistan to stand on its feet firmly.” He also says, “Historically Pakistan has remained ‘Frontline Alley’ of United States during ‘Cold War Era’ as well as ‘Proxy Wars in Afghanistan’. On top of all the super power will not allow Pakistan to become a darling of Russia or China. The best tool to keep Pakistan under the ‘US Hegemony’ is to make Pakistan follow the ‘IMF Dictate’.”

I have to accept his point of view and I am also sure that you will also join me once you read my narrative. “Pakistan has lived under 22 IMF programs and the lender of last resort still talks about introducing more structural adjustment programs. This proves two points: 1) the programs introduced in the past were faulty or 2) these programs were never aimed at making Pakistan a self-sustained entity.”

Many Pakistanis may be ready to accept the ‘vested’ interest of IMF, but do have a right to raise finger at the integrity of policy planners. Ironically, the policy planners have been following IMF dictate blindly and failing in coming up with ‘home grown’ plan. The beauty is that the politicians continue ‘mudslinging’ despite having remained part of different governments under different political parties.

Enough is enough, the time has come that people of Pakistan open their eyes and ears open and watch every move of the incumbent government, headed by Shehbaz Sharif.

Time has also come that the people of Pakistan ‘dump’ the political parties and politicians who have proven to be ‘vultures’ only. They have done little for the country, except serving ‘their vested interests’.  

 

How does an Indian analyst see Imran Khan ouster?

“Imran Khan’s shortened tenure and the crisis his ousting offers a sharp reminder of the tenuousness of its democratic institutions in face of the mightily powerful political force wielded by the military,” Mahima Duggal tells the Tehran Times.

Following is the text of the interview

Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan has been ousted from power after losing a no-confidence vote in his leadership. What are the main reasons for such a decision?

The main reason behind Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ousting from the leadership of Pakistan is the escalating tensions between Khan and the top-level military leaders. Reports of frictions between the political and military establishments of Pakistan caused intense turmoil and fuelled further panic and tension in the country in the weeks prior to Khan’s no-confidence vote. In fact, recent reports suggest that alongside deploying his allies to filibuster the no-confidence vote and call the opposition traitors for going against the Prime Minister, Khan also sought to dismiss Pakistan’s army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, a highly influential and powerful figure in Pakistani politics. Although, his efforts to sack Gen. Bajwa were blocked by a pre-emptive petition to the high court, this botched attempt only went to show the extent to which ties between Khan and the military had soured, especially considering the fact that in 2018, when Imran Khan assumed leadership, it was with the help of the army and intelligence establishments of the country. Ultimately, following a highly tense situation – even by the measure of Pakistan’s turbulent political history – wherein he fiercely fought to retain leadership, Khan lost a no-confidence vote in his leadership.

Imran Khan claims that Washington was behind a conspiracy to remove him from power. To what extent this allegation is true?

As of now, there is little evidence to suggest that the effort to remove him from power is anyway a result of a US-led conspiracy, despite strong allegations by Prime Minister Khan alleging this. The assertions first emerged at a rally in Islamabad on March 27, when Khan stated that he held a letter containing a threat by the US directed toward his government. Thereafter, he specifically pointed to Donald Lu, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, as being a part of this alleged conspiracy. The various (and vague) factors mentioned as reasons for US supposed action range from refusal to allow a US base on Pakistani soil to maintaining neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict – but no confirmation or verification has been provided, with Khan relying on rumors to spur support for his leadership. In other words, his intention was to tap into the simmering anti-American sentiments prevalent in the nation, whose people frequently view the US as unfairly scapegoating Pakistan in its post 9/11 war on terror. Members of his political party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have supported Khan’s stance – with PTI member and Deputy Speaker Qasim Suri even attempting to block the initial motion for a no-confidence vote earlier in April by claiming that the alleged letter showed interference by foreign forces. 

Khan could very well succeed in pushing for an earlier ballot that allows him to capitalize on the public support he has gathered and reattain office. Yet, the US has bluntly and categorically and repeatedly rejected such assertions of a conspiracy to overthrow Khan’s government, saying there was “absolutely no truth” to them. While it is certainly possible that Khan’s foreign policy of pursuing a closer partnership with China and recent actions like his visit to the Kremlin on February 24 – just as the Ukraine invasion began – upset Washington, there is little real evidence to credibly suggest that the US instigated the no-trust vote in Khan’s leadership. By all accounts, Imran Khan’s ousting is more a result of cracks between his administration and the country’s military establishment, and one reason for these gaps could be Khan’s pivot away from the U.S.

Apparently the Pakistani army supports close ties with America rather than Russia. Given the army’s long role in Pakistani politics, do you see any attempt by the army to remove Imran Khan?

Interestingly enough, Pakistani Army Chief, Gen. Bajwa, has given several statements in support of expanded relations with the US – in addition to those with China – by building on their “long and excellent” history of strategic ties and America’s status as Pakistan’s largest export market. In the same vein, a day before the no-confidence vote, Gen. Bajwa also asserted that the Ukraine invasion was a “huge tragedy” that must be “stopped immediately”. This came in stark contrast to statements by Khan which depicted neutrality and his efforts to carefully avoid siding with either camp. Khan’s policy came as part of the tone his government had adopted over the past four years that saw Pakistan move closer toward China and further away from the US For many, Pakistan’s guarded stance was unexpected considering it shared considerably strong trade ties with Ukraine and has only looked towards a new improved era of bilateral ties with Russia since 2014. However, in view of regional security and a focus on Afghanistan, building better relations with Russia as well as China, both key players in Afghanistan, has become not only prudent but also critical for Islamabad. Although this clash of positions may have been a spark prompting the Pakistani military establishment to move to remove Khan from office, it was only a symptom of a steadily heightening rift between the political and military institutions.

What will be the future of government in Pakistan after Imran Khan? 

Shehbaz Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the rainbow coalition of opposition parties, was elected prime minister two days after Imran Khan’s ouster, via a parliamentary vote that was widely boycotted by over 100 lawmakers of PTI. Notably, Sharif was the only contender for the post after PTI, and its candidate Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the former foreign minister of Pakistan, staged a protest and walked away from the vote altogether. Sharif was a three-time chief minister of the Pakistan Punjab province and is renowned for his positive administration style. As chief minister, he worked closely with Beijing to attract and implement developmental projects funded by China. He also enjoys good relations with the Pakistani military, which is likely to continue at least in the immediate future, as he looks to appease the traditionally powerful army chief and top military leaders so as to cement his political position. Accordingly, we will likely see the Pakistani military be a strong driver of the country’s foreign and security policies. Notably, after the walkout by PTI parliamentarians, Sharif is faced with a considerably smaller 174-seat assembly which comprises primarily of his supporters; this number exceeds the simple majority required to pass laws, which will make it considerably easier for Sharif to speedily implement any regulations, unchecked by an opposition that is critical to the democratic process.

At the same time, it is worth noting that through his show of strength in the days before the no-confidence motion, Imran Khan has managed to garner incredible support from the nation’s public, especially youth voters who resonated with Khan’s conspiracy theory narrative and blamed the US for his removal from office. On April 10, footage showed hundreds of thousands of citizens gathered in protest of the no-confidence vote, calling any new administration a forcefully “imposed” government. Although the Pakistan general elections are only due at the end of 2023, Khan could very well succeed in pushing for an earlier ballot that allows him to capitalize on the public support he has gathered and reattain office – although any such endeavour would be highly complicated without the support of the country’s military.

How do you think about the fate of Pakistani prime ministers in Pakistan’s history? 

Pakistan’s politics has long been dominated by a handful of powerful, influential, wealthy, and well-established political dynasties, especially the Sharif and Bhutto factions – a trend that Imran Khan vowed to break when he was elected in 2018. At the time, he had everything in his corner; not only was he a populist leader, enjoying fame as a cricket star that had hailed him a national hero, but had also proven to be a charismatic political leader with promises to bring change to forge a new Pakistan. Most importantly perhaps, he also enjoyed the favor of the support of the all-influential Pakistani military. No prime minister in the history of Pakistan has ever been able to complete their full term of five years in office; but it seemed that with his rapport with the army and public, Khan could be the first to do so, thereby ushering in a new era. Yet, post the pandemic, which left the Pakistani economy in tatters with slow growth and double-digit inflations, Khan was ousted with still another year to go.

Imran Khan’s shortened tenure and the crisis of his ousting offers a sharp reminder of the tenuousness of its democratic institutions in face of the mightily powerful political force wielded by the military. It is an indication, and a confirmation, of how deeply compromised the country’s politics is while powerful military leaders, like the army chief, are ultimately in control. It was the military that eased the way for Imran Khan in 2018, reportedly by tactics of gross coercion and intimidation of PTI’s opposition; now, after Khan moved away from the priorities set forth by the military to pursue closer ties with China and challenged the military leadership over certain top-level appointments, it is the military that holds the reins and has helped choreograph his ouster. The Pakistani military’s role in the fall of the country’s political administration is not unprecedented but has frequently occurred in history whenever a sitting prime minister lost the favor of the military. What is unique with Khan’s case is perhaps the use of constitutional mechanisms to enable a change of guard rather than outright coups. It remains to be seen whether the chaos caused by the military’s interference and Khan’s blatant and malicious violation of constitutional procedures for personal political gains will result in lasting chaos and deep damage to the country’s democracy.

Brewing crisis in Pakistan

According to Pakistan's leading English Newspaper, Dawn, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) leader, Farrukh Habib on Thursday said the resignations of 123 legislators of his party had been accepted by acting speaker of the National Assembly, Qasim Suri.

A notification has also been issued in this regard, the ex-minister said in a tweet.

Habib said general elections had now become inevitable in the country after the acceptance of resignations submitted by the PTI lawmakers.

It may be recalled that Pakistan Peo­ples Party and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz on Wednesday accused National Assembly’s former deputy speaker Qasim Suri of pressuring the NA Secretariat into sending resignations of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf MNAs to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) without meeting constitutional obligations.

The two parties — now in government — claimed that Suri had committed violation of the Constitution by approving the resignations without listening to them in person.

Meanwhile, sources told Dawn that some of the PTI lawmakers had approached NA Secretariat with a request not to accept their resignations.

Sherry Rehman, PPP’s parliamentary leader in the Senate, said at a press conference, along with PML-N leader Ayaz Sadiq that Qasim Suri had once again violated the law.

“Deputy Speaker Qasim Suri claims that he has verified the signatures; however, that is not the case,” she said.

PPP senator said, according to Rule 43 of National Assembly Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business, every member must individually appear before the speaker for signature verification and confirming the resignation.

“This procedure has not been followed as the PTI MNAs presented resignations jointly. Numerous PTI MNAs have come forth saying that the current procedure followed by the PTI was not only illegal but also unjust as they do not wish to resign, yet are being forced to do so,” she added.

Ms Rehman claimed some members were complaining that their resignations had forged signatures and the NA Secretariat was being pressured into accepting these. She said the ECP must take notice of these violations and the NA Secretariat be directed to ensure that the constitutional procedure for resignations was followed.

“We are confident about our growing majority and will continue to take forward our agenda of ridding parliament of all those subverting the Constitution and its rules.”

Ms Rehman said PPP and joint opposition had, after a long-drawn-out battle, ousted the “destructive, divisive and self-obsessed PTI government” through a democratic and constitutional path of a vote of no confidence.

“The whole country has been witness to the PTI leaders’ shameful subversions of the law and their one goal to remain in power at any cost to the nation,” she added.

PTI on Monday had decided to resign from the National Assembly, minutes before the election for the new prime minister was scheduled.

The decision was taken in a party's parliamentary meeting, which was chaired by PTI Chairman Imran Khan, at the Parliament House on Monday.

"The parliamentary party has decided to resign from the assemblies against the imported government," PTI Central Information Secretary Farrukh Habib said in a tweet.

Immediately after the announcement, Murad Saeed tendered his resignation as member of the NA — the first from the party.

Speaking to Dawn television channel shortly afterwards, he confirmed that he made the decision in line with the party's narrative. He reiterated the former prime minister's claims of a foreign conspiracy, stating that sitting in the NA after these revelations would be akin to be being a part of this plot.

"Should foreign powers have the right to make or break governments in Pakistan?" he asked.

Saeed also highlighted the charges against the opposition's candidate for Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif. "They were and are corrupt," he added.

Former Maritime Affairs minister Ali Haider Zaidi also followed suit, announcing his resignation on Twitter. He said he had submitted his resignation to the party chairman.

"No way should we legitimize this foreign-funded regime change in Pakistan. The battle for the sovereignty of Pakistan will now be decided on the streets by the people, not the looters," he said.

Former Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan Ali Amin Gandapur also shared a photo of his resignation on the party's letterhead.

"I am proud to be a follower of Imran Khan and will fight till my death for the freedom of Pakistan and parliament," he said.

PTI leaders Shireen Mazari, Hammad Azhar, and Shafaqt Mahmood shared their resignations on Twitter too.

Earlier, PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry had said that the decision to resign was tied to the acceptance of PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif's nomination papers for Prime Minister's elections, to which the PTI had raised objections.

He said it was a great injustice that Shehbaz would be contesting the election for the prime minister on the same day he is to be indicted in a money laundering case.

"What can be more insulting for Pakistan that a foreign selected and foreign imported government is imposed on it and a person like Shehbaz is made its head," he rued.

It is pertinent to mention that a special court (Central-I) of the Federal Investigation Agency was to indict Shehbaz and his son, Hamza, in a Rs14 billion money laundering case on the same but the court deferred the indictment.

Shehbaz Sarif and PTI's Shah Mahmood Qureshi were in the race to become the country's new prime minister.

 

 

 

 

Pak-US relations not likely to improve in near future

Washington may be happy on the installation of Shehbaz Sharif government in Pakistan. However, it looks highly unlikely that relationships between Islamabad and Washington can be normalized.

According to some analysts the United States was not happy with Imran Khan's outright shift to Chinese camp. His support for Putin in the Ukraine crisis has not gone down well with the US.

Some of the critics say United States many have not led the process to oust Khan from the power. However, it goes without saying that some powerful forces within Pakistan have managed to use the growing rift between Khan and Washington to their use. Some critics say Khan’s ouster came as a result of the alignment of major opposition parties with the Army.

Let us explore the apparent and hidden reasons:

According to the analysts, Khan's downfall has several reasons, internal as well as external. He had promised a lot before the election but failed to deliver. The lack of experience in administration and poor handling of Covid-19 crisis contributed to worsening the country's economic crisis.

After the failure to improve the economy and governance of the country, he redirected his focus to targeting political rivals, which brought together the opposition. His pro-China tilt and wish to make some unilateral decisions on military appointments resulted in losing key support from the Army.

Khan accused Washington of being involved in a conspiracy against his government, but the White House rejects such a claim. One has all the reasons to believe that the US was not happy with Khan's outright shift to Chinese camp. His support for Putin in the Ukraine crisis also didn’t bode well with the United States.

It may be true that the United States has not led the process to oust Imran Khan from the power, but some powerful forces within Pakistan have managed to use the growing rift between Khan and Washington to their benefit.

It may also be said that Khan’s ouster became possible with the alignment of major opposition parties and the Army. Judiciary also played a role. However, there is a clear warning, the US may be happy over the development; but it looks less likely that Pakistan will go back to the US camp.

In case Kahn and his party members resign from the National Assembly en masse, it will become a big question mark on the legitimacy of the new government.

Khan may lead the street protests against the incoming government in the coming months to keep his constituents enthused before next year's election.

This may to lead to his arrest, or he will be confined to his home. His popularity has grown among Pakistan's youth and the educated mass, and his cult-like status among the Pakistani diaspora is likely to remain intact.

There is no doubt that he is popular among the youngsters in the country and he is an excellent divider like other populists. That can make him a mighty force in the 2023 election.

One may wonder, will Khan opt to confront with political rivals and foes? There is a likelihood of a street fight between Khan's supporters and the security forces before the next election. The judiciary is not likely to come towhis rescue. Imran Khan is projecting himself as a victim of foreign conspiracy and alleging that his opposition is working against Pakistan. It will be a dirty political street fight in Pakistan for some time, at least until the next election.

A question being asked is can he count on his social base while the Pakistani Army is reluctant to support him? Khan's support base consists of youths, conservative poorer sections of the society, and the middle class. He is seen as a clean politician by his supporters, and his opponents are seen as a corrupt political dynasty.

Many Pakistani celebrities and the majority of the Pakistani diaspora also support Imran Khan. After his removal as the prime minister, his popularity has grown, and he is seen as a fighter who sacrificed his position to fight for the country and its people.

The Army is less likely to be openly aligned with Khan's opposition due to fear of losing its support of the masses. It seems to be a matter of time only before Khan is back in power.