Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses bullish trend throughout the week

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed persistent bullish run during the week ended on November 10, 2023. The benchmark index closed at 55,391 points, up 4.27%WoW, with daily trading volume averaging at 544.05 million shares, up 20.8%WoW.

The sentiments were driven by an overall positive atmosphere owing to IMF’s review under the SBA, after the completion of technical talks, followed by policy level discussions scheduled to begin on Monday.

Overall, discussions seem to be on a positive trajectory with IMF mostly questioning the fiscal targets and delay regarding gas price revisions. On the macro front, expectations of a reduction in CAD during FY24 to US$4.5 billion, alongside healthy agri output to boost exports are the positive triggers.

Further, crude oil prices continue to slide amidst uncertainty over China’s economic recovery and stability in US reserves, Arab light/ WTI/ Brent being traded at US$84.7/ US$76.7/ US$81.1 per barrel.

On the currency front, US$/PKR slid for the second straight week, ending at 287.03, down 0.95%WoW amidst rising import demand, alongside concerns regarding IMF talks.

Furthermore, PIB auction held during the week saw yields declining, with 3/ 5/ 10 year bond yields slipping to 17.39%/ 15.95%/ 15.10% (down 180/ 100/ 15bps), reinforcing expectations of an end to further monetary tightening.

Other news for the week were: 1) SIFC assessed Sinopec’s interest; 2) US$3 billion projects approved for flood-hit areas; 3) IMF talks uncovered major gaps; 4) Cotton production jumps by 83%; 5) Reko Diq deal with Saudi firm to be signed this year; 6) Nepra allowed Discos PKR0.4/unit tariff hike under FCA for September 23.

Top performing sectors included Chemical and Cement, while Close-end Mutual Fund saw major selling. Flow-wise, major selling was recorded by Insurance with a net sell of US$16.9 million, while Banks/DFI absorbed the selling with a net buy of US$16.3 million.

Top performing scrips were: CNERGY, KOHC, CEPB, FCCL, and KTML, while laggards included HGFA, UNITY, BNWM, EFUG, and ABOT.

Top volume leaders were: CNERGY, PRL, HUMNL, KOSM, and WTL.

Going forward, analysts maintain an optimistic outlook of the market and believe the present rally to continue, albeit with episodes of profit taking. This stance stems from an expected positive conclusion of the IMF’s review amidst improving macro indicators and fading uncertainty over the upcoming elections, even though the country faces tough economic decisions in the near future.

Overall, brokerage houses advise their clients to focus on fundamentals, with exposure in high dividend yielding scrips.

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index posts 1.46%WoW increase

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) posted somewhat lackluster movement during the week ended on September 22, 2023. It could be attributed to Monetary Policy announcement scheduled in the middle of the week, amidst dual fuel price hikes during the month. However, the decision of the central bank to keep the rates unchanged was a pleasant surprise.

On the external front, country’s foreign exchange reserves remained relatively flat, ending at US$7.69 billion as compared to US$7.64 billion a week ago. Additionally, the domestic currency continued to strengthen against the greenback.

Globally crude oil prices remained on upward trajectory, with Brent ending the week at US$94.03/bbl. This was largely driven by persistent supply cuts by major producers, namely Russia and Saudi Arabia. China’s economic recovery, provided further impetus.

Average daily trading volumes declined by 13.4%WoW, to 139 million shares, from 160 million shares traded during the earlier week.

The benchmark Index gained 6674 points posting a 1.46% increase in the index.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Caretaker setup increased prices of petroleum products, 2) foreign office termed report on Pakistani arms sale to Ukraine to secure IMF bailout ‘Baseless and fabricated’, 3) IMF expressed concerns over diesel smuggling from Iran and advised finance ministry to submit detailed report, 4) T-Bill yields tumbled despite the central bank mopping PKR2.4 trillion in the latest auction, and 5) GST evasion through flying invoices estimated around PKR6 trillion.

Transport, Leasing Companies and Close ended Mutual Funds were amongst the top performers, while Vanaspati and allied industries, Insurance and Automobiles were amongst the worst performers.

Major selling was recorded by Insurance (net sell US$1.3 million) and Brokers (net sell US$1.1 million).

Individuals and Other organizations absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$2.3 million and US$1.1 million respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PGLC, LOTCHEM, UNITY, SCBPL, and GADT, while top laggards included: MUREB, UPFL, ATHL, PIOC, and MUGHAL.

 

Market is expected to be post gains in the coming week, driven by CPI readings alongside further clarity on IMF's upcoming review.

However, in the near term, appreciating PKR alongside expectations of higher remittances during September 2023 are expected to keep investors optimistic.

Overall, analysts continue to advise a cautious approach while building positions, with investments only focused on dollar-driven and high dividend-yielding companies.

 

 

Pakistan: Likely facets of Federal Budget FY23

Government of Pakistan (GoP) is scheduled to announce Federal Budget FY23 on June 10, 2022. Relations between International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan have not normalized despite change of Prime Minister. 

While it is anricipated that the upcoming budget will have measures that can ensure austerity and economic stability, the incumbent government is likely to opt for policies which can help the coalition remain in power over the next 18 months.

Budget outlay for FY23 is estimated at around Rs9.5 trillion as against budget of Rs8.5 trillion for FY22.

GoP is anticipated to set tax revenue collection target at Rs7.25 trillion for FY23, which will be 19% higher from the revised target of Rs6.1 trillion for FY22. It is likely to impose new taxation measures of about half a trillion in FY23 budget.

Current expenditure target is likely to be set at 12% of GDP for FY23 or Rs8 trillion which is around 11% YoY higher than what was budgeted for FY22.

Similarly, government is likely to set aside nearly Rs4 trillion for markup payment and Rs1.6 trillion for Defense expenditure.

Federal Public Sector Development (PSDP) is estimated at Rs800bn, as against Rs466 billion disbursed in 10MFY22 and revised budgeted of Rs603 billion for FY22.

Consolidated PSDP (Federal and Provincial) is anticipated at Rs1.4 trillion (1.8% of GDP) for FY23, as against Rs1.2 trillion for FY22.

A few taxation measures that are under consideration include: 1) increase in super tax for Banking sector and re-imposition of super tax on highly profitable companies, 2) increase in tax rate for individuals earning high salaries, 3) reduction in tax concessions and exemptions for various sectors, 4) increase in regulatory duties on luxury items, 5) luxury tax on immovable properties and vehicles,  and 6) increase in taxes for non-filers.

With the economic slowdown, tax revenue target of Rs7.25 trillion will be difficult to achieve for FY23. However, it will depend on the types and amounts of new taxes to be imposed in Budget FY23.

Upcoming budget is likely to be Neutral for Stock Market as we do not anticipate any change in Capital Gain Tax (CGT) rate of 12.5% and tax rate of 15% on dividend income. The budget is likely to be Neutral to Positive for sectors including Technology & Communication, Fertilizer, Insurance and Chemical Sectors. On other hand, it is likely to be Neutral to Negative for sectors including IPPs, Autos, Banks, Oil & Gas Exploration, Cement, Textile, OMCs, Tobacco, Steel and Pharmaceuticals.

Analysts believe that negatives relating to imposition of new taxes on listed companies are already priced in as valuations remain attractive. Market participants are keen to see the overall balance of payment situation and focus to remain on IMF and other foreign exchange inflows along with trend of international commodity prices. 

Pakistan market is currently trading at a discount. Analysts prefer sectors that offer high dividend yield, beneficiary of rising interest rates and currency depreciation.

 

State Bank justifies hike in interest rate

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) believes that the hike of 150bps on May 23, 2022 together with ‘much needed’ fiscal consolidation, should help moderate demand to a more sustainable pace while keeping inflation expectations anchored and containing risks to external stability.

It believes the headline inflation is likely to increase temporarily and remain on the higher side in FY23, but expects it to fall to 5% to 7% range in FY24, assuming moderating growth, normalizing global commodity prices and base-effect. NCPI currently is at a 2 year high driven primarily by perishable food items and core inflation. Nevertheless, central banks globally are responding to inflation.

Despite some respite in MoM current account deficit, the Rupee has remained under pressure due to the weak sentiment and a strengthening US dollar. Exports have continued their growth momentum along with robust remittances.

Moreover, growth in imports has been generally driven by crude oil, food items and chemicals including vaccines FY22 TD. Slight drop in volumes recently has been partially offset by higher oil and edible oil imports and higher international prices.

Pakistan is in a comfortable position to meet external financing requirements for FY23. Gross financing needs for Q4FY22 and FY23 stand at US$45 billion. Financing is available to the tune of US$51 billion – large part of which is multilateral loans. Pakistan expects a rollover of US$2.3 billion loan from China. 

Discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are progressing well in Doha. However, delays might occur given that the budget for FY23 is also part of the ongoing discussions. The IMF requires ‘political assurances’ which may not preclude a caretaker setup from negotiating the program as well. The IMF has negotiated with caretaker setups in other countries in past.

The incumbent coalition government headed by Shehbaz Sharif is keen on continuing with the low-cost housing schemes. However, given the need for fiscal consolidation lending targets assigned to commercial banks for lending to private developers etc. might be reviewed.

The MPC also emphasized the need for strong and equitable fiscal consolidation to complement monetary policy measures.

 

 

Further hike in interest rate by the central bank could prove suicidal for Pakistan

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to announce a key monetary policy decision on May 23, 2022. The analysts and market participants keenly await SBP policy direction given Pakistan's economic uncertainty.

The consensus is growing in Pakistan that further hike in interest could prove suicidal for the country. The debt servicing by the Government of Pakistan (GoP) has become unsustainable. On top of that any hike in cost of doing business will dampen prospects of boosting exports. Let everyone remember that Pakistan suffers from cost-pushed inflation.

Since the last Monetary Policy announcement on April 07, 2022, secondary market rates including T-Bill/Kibor rates have gone up by around 200bps due to uncertainty about continuation of IMF program and removal of subsidies on petrol and diesel. 

It will also be interesting to see SBP’s stance as this will be the first monetary policy statement after the recent change in the government and appointment of Dr. Murtaza Syed as acting Governor of the central bank.

The most recent T-Bill auction tell a different story, the cut off yields declined for the first time after almost a year, down by 5nbs to 29bps with 3/6/12 months T-Bill yields clocking in at 14.49%, 14.70%, and 14.75% respectively.

For further clues let us go through some details of a survey conducted by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Topline Securities. Questions were asked on interest rate, inflation, currency, GDP growth and current account deficit outlook.

As per the survey results, around 54% of the participants expects an increase of 100bps, 14% of the participants anticipate an increase of 150bps and 11% expect an increase of 200bps or more. As against this 13% participants expect increase of 50bps and 9% expect no change.

Participants remained divided on policy rate expectations by end of FY23. 27% of the participants expect policy rate to close at 13% by end of next financial year. 41% of the participants expect it to above 13% while 32% anticipate it to be below 13%.

In terms of currency outlook, 39% of the participants expect PKR/USD to close above 205 by the end of next financial year. 9% believe it will remain in the range of 200-205 by FY23 end. 23% expect it to close in between 195 to 200 while the remaining anticipates it to be below Rs195.

27% of the participants are expecting inflation of 13-14% in FY23, 16% expect it to be between 14 to 15 percent, 4% anticipate it to be above 15%. The remainder of the respondents is eyeing an inflation of lower than 13% in FY23.

In terms of GDP growth, 7% of the participants think that GDP growth will be below 3% and 32% of them expects it to be between 3-3.5%, whereas 23% of the participants project it to be 3.5%-4.0%. The remainder of them anticipates it to be above 4%. 

Participants remained divided on the expectations of current account deficit forecast for FY23 as 46% participants expect current account deficit to be in the range of US$12 billion to US$15 billion while 18% participants anticipate it to above US$15 billion. The remainder of them expects it to be below US$12 billion.  

Pakistan is currently facing tough economic times as depleting foreign exchange reserves, rising fiscal deficit amid huge petrol/diesel subsidy and indecisiveness by the new government on key economic measures is exacerbating economic issues.

It will key for government to take the required reform steps including removal of subsidy on petrol/diesel, measures to curb imports and improve tax collection. This will pave way for the resumption of IMF program which currently remain stalled and will result in dollar flows that could ease pressure on currency and foreign exchange reserves going forward.

Given concerns highlighted above along with rising inflation and weakening currency, analysts anticipate SBP to raise the policy rate by 100bps.

 

Pakistan: Coalition on the path to collision

Pakistanis are getting jittery because of the ‘politically loaded’ statements from the ruling coalition as well as the opposition headed by Imran Khan. 

PTI Chairman on Sunday announced that his party's long march towards Islamabad for the country's "battle for real freedom" would begin on May 25, 2022.

He said the main demands for the march to the capital were the immediate dissolution of the National Assembly and announcement of a date for the next general election.

Khan wants to charge the mob by saying, "I want people from all walks of life to come because this is Jihad, and not politics. I've decided and told all my team that we have to be ready to sacrifice our lives."

Imran indicated that the march would convert into a sit-in and continue until his demands are accepted. "We will never under any situation accept them. No matter how long we have to remain in Islamabad we will remain there."

I am surprised at the logic and narrative of Khan. If he wants fresh elections, he should ask his party members (MNAs) to resign and the coalition will have no option but to go for fresh election.

I have a feeling that Khan fears that in case his party members resign the stage would be set for the creation of an interim government and elections would be deferred till completion of the electoral reforms.

PML-N-led coalition government appears unwilling to take the blame for any unpopular decisions it may have to take to fix the economy. It wants guaranteed backing of the powerful military establishment to help it see through the remaining period of its tenure till August 2023.

The coalition believes it can handle the PTI march if other things are sorted out with the establishment. Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has expressed his wish to arrest Khan provided he gets the ‘go-ahead’, as he thinks even one day in prison would make the ousted premier forget politics.

It is highly regrettable that neither Khan nor Sharif understands the gravity of situation. Pakistan has to satisfy the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and seek the ‘fitness certificate’ to pave way for the immediate release of US$1 billion. This would be the preamble for release of funds by other multilateral financial institutions as well as friendly countries.

It is therefore suggested that the ruling junta should show some endurance and Khan should also support the incumbent government in the preparation and approval of the federal budget for the next financial, likely to be announced on June 10, 2022.

In my opinion even the most contentious issues should be discussed and resolved in the parliament and should not be taken to the streets. At present the top national priority is approval of the federal budget.  It is better that Khan and Sharif develop working relations at the earliest.