Wednesday 13 April 2022

Pak-US relations not likely to improve in near future

Washington may be happy on the installation of Shehbaz Sharif government in Pakistan. However, it looks highly unlikely that relationships between Islamabad and Washington can be normalized.

According to some analysts the United States was not happy with Imran Khan's outright shift to Chinese camp. His support for Putin in the Ukraine crisis has not gone down well with the US.

Some of the critics say United States many have not led the process to oust Khan from the power. However, it goes without saying that some powerful forces within Pakistan have managed to use the growing rift between Khan and Washington to their use. Some critics say Khan’s ouster came as a result of the alignment of major opposition parties with the Army.

Let us explore the apparent and hidden reasons:

According to the analysts, Khan's downfall has several reasons, internal as well as external. He had promised a lot before the election but failed to deliver. The lack of experience in administration and poor handling of Covid-19 crisis contributed to worsening the country's economic crisis.

After the failure to improve the economy and governance of the country, he redirected his focus to targeting political rivals, which brought together the opposition. His pro-China tilt and wish to make some unilateral decisions on military appointments resulted in losing key support from the Army.

Khan accused Washington of being involved in a conspiracy against his government, but the White House rejects such a claim. One has all the reasons to believe that the US was not happy with Khan's outright shift to Chinese camp. His support for Putin in the Ukraine crisis also didn’t bode well with the United States.

It may be true that the United States has not led the process to oust Imran Khan from the power, but some powerful forces within Pakistan have managed to use the growing rift between Khan and Washington to their benefit.

It may also be said that Khan’s ouster became possible with the alignment of major opposition parties and the Army. Judiciary also played a role. However, there is a clear warning, the US may be happy over the development; but it looks less likely that Pakistan will go back to the US camp.

In case Kahn and his party members resign from the National Assembly en masse, it will become a big question mark on the legitimacy of the new government.

Khan may lead the street protests against the incoming government in the coming months to keep his constituents enthused before next year's election.

This may to lead to his arrest, or he will be confined to his home. His popularity has grown among Pakistan's youth and the educated mass, and his cult-like status among the Pakistani diaspora is likely to remain intact.

There is no doubt that he is popular among the youngsters in the country and he is an excellent divider like other populists. That can make him a mighty force in the 2023 election.

One may wonder, will Khan opt to confront with political rivals and foes? There is a likelihood of a street fight between Khan's supporters and the security forces before the next election. The judiciary is not likely to come towhis rescue. Imran Khan is projecting himself as a victim of foreign conspiracy and alleging that his opposition is working against Pakistan. It will be a dirty political street fight in Pakistan for some time, at least until the next election.

A question being asked is can he count on his social base while the Pakistani Army is reluctant to support him? Khan's support base consists of youths, conservative poorer sections of the society, and the middle class. He is seen as a clean politician by his supporters, and his opponents are seen as a corrupt political dynasty.

Many Pakistani celebrities and the majority of the Pakistani diaspora also support Imran Khan. After his removal as the prime minister, his popularity has grown, and he is seen as a fighter who sacrificed his position to fight for the country and its people.

The Army is less likely to be openly aligned with Khan's opposition due to fear of losing its support of the masses. It seems to be a matter of time only before Khan is back in power.

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