Iranian president’s upcoming visit to Pakistan

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is scheduled to officially visit Pakistan on April 22, 2024. 

This diplomatic engagement comes amidst heightened regional interest, particularly as Pakistan prepares to embark on the construction of a gas pipeline linking Gwadar port to the Iranian border in the near future, according to WION News.

In an interview with the Tehran Times on March 15, the Pakistani ambassador to Iran, Muhammad Mudassir Tipu, emphasized the importance of strengthening the longstanding bond between Iran and Pakistan. 

Tipu also underscored the need for both nations to actively nurture and enhance their deep-seated connections which are rooted in history. 

“There is a very high level of political engagement going on between the two countries. The Iranian leadership sent very strong congratulatory messages to Pakistan when our new government was recently elected. So did Islamabad when parliamentary elections were held in Iran.  I think that shows that the relationship is in the right direction and that it’s being solidified, strengthened, and widened,” Tipu stated, adding that terrorism is one thing that the two states will focus on.

He added, "But there are also far more areas where we need more cooperation. There is a historical perspective that connects more than 300 million people in the two countries. We are connected through geography, history, and culture and I think both leaderships understand that and are determined to move forward and further diversify and expand relations. While we need robust cooperation to tackle terrorism, we should meanwhile not get fixated on it. We need to widen our horizons and make use of the countless opportunities we have to deepen our ties. This is what I am looking at as the ambassador."

 

Raisi visit to Turkey to focus on Gaza

According to Reuters, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Ankara on January 04, 2024 to meet his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan for talks likely to focus on the situation in Gaza and Syria as well as bilateral ties.

A visit by Raisi in late November was postponed due to the conflicting schedules of the two regional powers. At the time, Turkey's foreign minister was in New York as part of a contact group of Muslim countries on Gaza.

Turkey, which supports a two-state solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has harshly criticized Israel for its attacks on Gaza, called for an immediate ceasefire, and said Israeli leaders should be tried in international courts for war crimes.

While it has ramped up its rhetoric against Israel since it launched its air and ground assault on Gaza in retaliation for Palestinian militant group Hamas' October 07 attack, Turkey has also maintained commercial ties with Israel, prompting criticism from some opposition parties and Iran.

Unlike its Western allies and some Arab nations, NATO member Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist group.

Its neighbor, Iran stands at the head of what it calls the Axis of Resistance, a loose coalition that includes Hamas as well as armed Shi'ite Muslim groups around the region that have militarily confronted Israel and its Western allies. It has voiced support for Hamas and warned of wider consequences if the fighting in Gaza continues.

Turkey and Iran have usually had complicated ties, standing at loggerheads on a host of issues, primarily the Syrian civil war. Ankara politically and militarily backs rebels looking to oust President Bashar al-Assad, while Tehran supports his government.

While several rounds of talks have been held between Syrian, Turkish, Iranian and Russian representatives to find a political solution to the war, Ankara has also moved to improve ties with Assad as part of a regional diplomatic push launched in 2020.

 

 

Global landscape undergoing paradigm shift, says Raisi

Speaking at the annual debate of the UN General Assembly in New York, Iran’s President Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi discussed the emergence of non-Western powers, encouraged regional economic and security partnerships, and lamented the ongoing Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.

The world is reaching a critical junction point as an emerging order of non-Western states looks to pursue closer economic and political ties with one another, according to Raisi.

“The global landscape is undergoing a paradigm shift towards an emerging international order, a trajectory that is not reversible,” he said.

“As non-Western powers have emerged, there is a collective hope for a novel and equitable world order. The Islamic Republic of Iran advocates maximum economic and political convergence and is interested in interacting with the global community under the principle of justice.”

Through mutual political trust, economic cooperation, and indigenous security measures the goals of regional partners can be achieved more easily, said Raisi.

Holding up the Qur’an, he said “The holy book beckons humanity towards rationality, spirituality, the truth and justice. It expounds upon the unity of mankind proclaiming all earthly inhabitants it seeks to guide all towards human dignity... and speaks of equality among humans.”

Raisi emphasized the need for regional stability, noting the security of neighboring countries directly implicated the security of Iran.

He also criticized Western powers for what he claimed was an overt attempt to undermine stability in the region, claiming that Western intelligence agencies were moving terrorists across the region in a much targeted fashion.

“The surgical use of terrorists by certain Western governments as a political tool will be overcome by the collective will of the people of the region,” he said.

“Iran, who herself has been the biggest target of terrorists, has been at the forefront of combating terrorism in the region,” he added.

Iran additionally accused the United States of meddling in neighboring states, and drew attention to the situation in Afghanistan to highlight the humanitarian impact of Western military intervention on regional affairs.

“An independent and robust neighborhood presents an opportunity for the entire region. We will welcome any extended hand quite warmly.

Raisi lamented Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, labeling it a negation of the inherent rights of Palestinians.

He also emphasized the need to recognize Palestinian statehood and withdraw Israeli troops and settlements from the region.

“The people of the region see Iran as a secure partner for their own security and the occupying regime in Jerusalem is seen as the perpetrator of much of the violence in the region,” he said.

“Has the time not come to bring an end to seven and a half decades to the occupation of Palestinian lands, of the demolition of their homes, of the blood of their women and children, and for the people of Palestine to be recognized officially as a country?”

Iran stresses unity among OPEC members

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stressed the necessity of strengthening unity among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to nullify the division created by the West.

Making the remarks during a meeting with OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, in Tehran on Saturday, in the presence of Oil Minister Javad Oji, the president said, “Some Western countries seek to create division and disagreements among OPEC member countries to secure their interests, and the OPEC members should prevent the realization of these goals by strengthening their cohesion.”

He considered the constructive cooperation of the OPEC members with each other as an important factor in the success of this international organization and added: “The Islamic Republic of Iran has always had a constructive cooperation with this organization and we are determined to continue and improve the level of cooperation.”

The president further mentioned supporting the rights of oil producers and preventing discrimination against them as the philosophy of forming OPEC, and expressed hope that OPEC can bring peace to the oil market in the new period of activity.

During the meeting with the Iranian president and oil minister, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran, as one of the founding members of OPEC, has always had useful, effective, and constructive cooperation with this organization and its members and reminded, “Iran, both at the ministerial level and at the technical level has always acted in the direction of strengthening the cohesion and unity of OPEC members.”

Describing the situation of the oil market he said, “I hope that with the unity of OPEC members and benefiting from the constructive support and cooperation of the Islamic Republic of Iran, we will be able to bring peace to the market.”

The OPEC secretary general arrived in Tehran on Friday for reviewing the oil market situation, as well as the supply and demand outlook, with the Iranian officials, and exchange of views on the upcoming meeting of OPEC members and the ministerial meeting of the OPEC Plus (an entity consisting of the 13 OPEC members and 10 of the world's major non-OPEC oil-exporting countries).

Iran has always asked fellow OPEC members to refrain from any unilateral measures, warning that would undermine the unity of OPEC.

The Islamic Republic has called on members not to take unilateral measures that would undermine the unity and independence of OPEC and provoke the US to take action against Iran.

Reacting to Iran’s approach in this regard, the former OPEC secretary general said there were no unilateral decisions in the organization.

Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo said, “Regarding the issue of Iran and the sanctions, Iran had been faced with similar challenges in recent years and I am sure that it can overcome these issues.”

“Over the 60 years since the establishment of OPEC, we have faced many challenges, but what has always helped us is the unity of member stations. If we can preserve this unity, we can overcome the problems again,” the ex-OPEC secretary general said in an interview in Tehran on the sidelines of the Iran Oil Show.

Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji has stressed that the global energy market needs an increase in the supply of Iranian oil saying, “As a major producer of oil and petroleum products, we are always ready to play our role in maintaining global energy security away from politics.”

Speaking after an OPEC Plus meeting last September, Oji noted that the role and importance of Iran's supply of energy resources, including oil, gas, and petroleum products, is of double importance in ensuring the stability and security of the world's energy.

“We have always declared that Iran is ready to contribute to the improvement of energy security in the world by avoiding the political use of energy. The global energy market needs an increase in the supply of oil and natural gas from Iran,” the minister said.

 

Iran-US clash at UN General Assembly

The United States and Iran clashed on security and human rights, with Iranian President demanding US guarantees to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the US President vowing Tehran would never get an atomic bomb.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi struck a defiant tone at the United Nations General Assembly by decrying "double standards" on human rights after the death of an Iranian woman in police custody that has sparked protests around Iran.

Raisi also said Tehran wanted former US President Donald Trump to face trial for the 2020 killing of Iran's top Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone attack in Iraq, holding up a picture of the general.

"There is a great and serious will to resolve all issues to revive the (2015 nuclear) deal," Raisi told the UN General Assembly. "We only wish one thing: observance of commitments."

Speaking later, US President Joe Biden reiterated his willingness to revive the nuclear pact under which Iran had agreed to restrain its atomic program in return for relief from economic sanctions.

In 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal and unilaterally reimposed sanctions that have hobbled Iran's economy.

A year later, Tehran reacted by gradually violating the deal's nuclear limits and reviving US, Israeli and Gulf Arab fears that Iran may be seeking to obtain an atomic weapon, an ambition Iran denies.

"We have before us the experience of America's withdrawal from the (deal)," Raisi said. "With that experience and this perspective, can we ignore the important issue of guarantees for a durable agreement?"

Raisi did not mention Iran's demand that investigations by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into traces of uranium found at three undeclared Iranian sites be closed, a major stumbling block to reviving the deal.

The US and European officials have said the probes can only be closed if Iran provides satisfactory answers to the UN nuclear watchdog whose chief, Rafael Grossi, said these issues cannot be wished away.

"The Islamic Republic considers the double standards of some governments in the field of human rights as the most important factor in the institutionalization of human rights violations," Raisi said in a text of his speech released by his office.

"Human rights belongs to all, but unfortunately it is trampled upon by many governments," Raisi added, referring to the discovery of unmarked graves of indigenous people in Canada, the suffering of the Palestinians and images of migrant children held in cages in the United States.

"While the United States is prepared for a mutual return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action if Iran steps up to its obligations, the United States is clear. We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon," Biden said.

"We stand with the brave citizens and the brave women of Iran who right now are demonstrating to secure their basic rights," Biden added.

Are Russia and Iran friends or foes?

A budding courtship between Russia and Iran is an unwelcome development for the West in general and the United States in particular.

Russian President Vladimir Putin used a rare foreign trip on Tuesday to hold talks in Tehran with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, as well as Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

The fact that Russia and Iran are competing energy producers is likely to place limits on any deeper partnership.

Here's a look at some of the key questions that their developing relationship poses.

CAN IRAN HELP RUSSIA IN THE UKRAINE WAR?

US officials have said Iran is preparing to help supply Russia with several hundred unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, including some that are capable of firing weapons, but neither country has confirmed it. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov was quoted by RIA news agency as saying Putin had not discussed the issue with Iran's leaders.

"Russia deepening an alliance with Iran to kill Ukrainians is something that the whole world should look at and see as a profound threat," US National Security adviser Jake Sullivan said last week.

Ukraine has used Turkish-supplied Bayraktar drones to lethal effect in targeting Russian units and destroying huge quantities of tanks and other armored vehicles. Jack Watling, a war expert at the RUSI think-tank in London, said Iranian drones would be useful to Russia for both reconnaissance and as loitering munitions that can bide their time in locating and engaging suitable targets.

"Beyond supplying UAVs Iran can also help Russia evade sanctions and potentially collaborate on the manufacture of weapons systems that are less dependent upon supply chains through Western countries," he said.

WHAT CAN RUSSIA LEARN FROM IRAN ON SANCTIONS?

Iran has many years of experience of defending itself against Western sanctions over its disputed nuclear program. "The Russians see Iran as being highly experienced at, and a potentially valuable partner, in evading Western sanctions," said Watling.

Russia, meanwhile, has been hit with waves of sanctions against banks, businesses and individuals over the war in Ukraine. Both countries therefore lack access to Western technology and capital, said Janis Kluge of the SWP think-tank in Berlin.

"There might be some lessons that Russia can learn from Iran... In exchange, Russia could offer military goods and possibly raw materials or grain," he said. Russia is already a major supplier of wheat to Tehran.

With some Russian banks cut off from the SWIFT international payments system, Moscow is developing an alternative in which Iranian banks could be included, Kluge said.

More broadly, Iran is part of a wider group of countries - also including China, India, Latin America and Arab and African nations - with which Russia is forging stronger ties in a bid to prove its claim that it can thrive under sanctions and that these will only rebound on the West.

HOW CAN RUSSIA AND IRAN COOPERATE ON ENERGY?

This is potentially a sensitive question, both countries are oil and gas producers, and competition between them has intensified since the start of the Ukraine war as Russia has switched more of its oil exports to China and India at knock-down prices.

"On the economic dimension, the war has significantly worsened their relationship. Moscow is eating Tehran’s lunch in commodity markets and has even fewer resources to throw at projects in Iran," said Henry Rome, deputy head of research at Eurasia Group.

Coinciding with Putin's visit, however, the National Iranian Oil Company and Russia's Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding worth around US$40 billion under which Gazprom will help NIOC develop two gas fields and six oil fields, as well as taking part in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and construction of gas export pipelines.

WILL ANYTHING CHANGE IN THE IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS?

The Ukraine war has changed Moscow’s approach towards talks on reviving the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.

Eleven months of talks to restore the deal, which lifted sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program, had reached their final stages in March. But they were thrown into disarray over a last-minute Russian demand for written guarantees from Washington that Western sanctions targeting Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine would not affect its trade with Iran.

Although Russia quickly retreated under Iranian pressure, diplomatic momentum for an agreement was lost. The talks have stalled since then over various remaining issues.

Whether the deal can get back on track will be one measure of the impact of the rapprochement between Putin and Iran's leaders.

"Russia’s interference in the JCPOA talks was a significant reversal of the traditional Russian approach and probably further fanned suspicions in Tehran about Moscow’s reliability and trustworthiness," said Rome of Eurasia Group.

Iran can fulfill Pakistan’s energy needs, says President Raisi

According to Tasnim News Agency, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi expressed the country’s readiness to satisfy Pakistan’s demand for oil, gas and electricity. In a meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, held in Tehran, Raisi hailed the close ties between the two neighbors, saying the people of Iran and Pakistan are like relatives.

“We consider Pakistan’s security to be our own security,” he said, adding, “Some do not like the good relations between the two Muslim, neighboring, friendly and brotherly nations, but the development of relations leads to economic prosperity and more security for the nations of the region.”

There are no restrictions in Tehran for the development of relations with Islamabad, Raisi noted, saying, “We are ready to promote comprehensive cooperation with Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran has the necessary capacity to meet Pakistan’s needs in various fields, including oil, gas and electricity.”

The Iranian president called the fields of energy, transit and cooperation and coordination in the regional issues and crises as important aspects of relations between the two countries, his official website reported.

For his part, Bilawal expressed satisfaction with the visit to Iran, adding, “As much as I am a child of Pakistan, I am also a child of Iran.”

Thanking Iran for exporting electricity to Pakistan, the Foreign Minister said, “We are fully prepared to complete and conclude the previous talks in the fields of security, trade and energy.”

Pakistani Foreign Minister also praised the government of Iran for its assistance in extinguishing the widespread wildfires in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.

 

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visits Iran

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad made an unannounced visit to Iran on Sunday and met with Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi. 

This is the second time that Assad visits Tehran since the beginning of the war in Syria in 2011.

According to the Leader's office, Ayatollah Khamenei told Assad, who was accompanied by a high-ranking delegation, that Syria has won an international war. "Syria's credibility is much greater today than in the past," the Leader noted.

Ayatollah Khamenei said the resistance of the Syrian people and establishment and their victory in an international war promoted Syria's charisma and pride.

More than 100 countries, calling themselves friends of Syria, backed the opponents which were poised to overthrow the Syrian government. Some of these countries backed terrorist groups, which were active in Syria under different names.

Highlighting Syria's great military and political achievements, the Leader said today’s Syria is not comparable to the Syria before the war.

Today the president of Syria and the Syrian people are proud of the nations of the region, Ayatollah Khamenei.

The Leader added, “Some leaders of our and your neighboring countries meet and greet with the leaders of the Zionist regime and drink coffee together, but the people of these countries take to the streets on Quds Day and chant anti-Zionist slogans, and this is the reality of the region today.”

Pointing to several factors influencing the resistance and victory of Syria in the international war, the Leader told Assad, “One of the most important factors is your high morale and with this spirit, God willing, you can rebuild the ruins of the war because you have a great job ahead of you.”

The Leader of the Islamic Revolution also commemorated the memory of the legendary commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, saying, “The great martyr had a special liking towards Syria and literally sacrificed his life for the country. His behavior in Syria was no different from his behavior in the eight-year Sacred Defense of Iran.”

General Soleimani was very influential in defeating terrorists in Syria through his unique commandership.

Ayatollah Khamenei said General Soleimani and other prominent members of the IRGC, including martyr Hossein Hamedani, really worked hard and viewed the issue of Syria as a “sacred duty and obligation”.

“This bond between Iran and Syria is vital for both countries and we should not let it weaken. On the contrary, we should strengthen it as much as possible,” Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized.

The Leader also referring to expression of friendship and love of certain countries that were on the front line against Syria in previous years, suggesting Iran and Syria must clarify the path to future “with the benefit of hindsight.”

Ayatollah Khamenei also praised the morale and vivacity of the Syrian president as the basis for doing great things.

During the meeting, which was also attended by President Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, Assad thanked the position of Iran toward the Syria war and thanked the Iranian people and government for supporting his country in times of need.

The Syrian president pointed out that the ruins of the war in his country can be rebuilt, but if the foundations and principles had been destroyed, they could not be restored.

“The adherences of the Iranian nation to the principles of Imam Khomeini, which continued with your efforts, paved the way for the great victories of the Iranian nation and the people of the region, especially the Palestinian people,” Assad told Ayatollah Khamenei.

The Syrian president added that some people think that Iran's support for the Resistance Front is of military nature but the most important support and assistance of the Islamic Republic is to breathe the spirit of resistance and continuing it.

In conclusion, the Syrian president stressed that what has made the Zionist regime unable to rule the region is the strategic relations between Iran and Syria, which must continue with strength. Raisi said parts of Syria still under foreign occupation must be liberated

Speaking in a separate meeting with the Syrian President before noon on Sunday, President Raisi said, “What we are witnessing today in Western Asia, which is the result of the resistance of nations against domineering powers and aggressors, is what the Leader of the Islamic Revolution had predicted.”

Commemorating the martyrs of the resistance from Syria and Iran, including General Soleimani, and appreciating the bravery of the Islamic world’s fighters against terrorism, the president called Assad one of the figures of the Resistance Front “like his father.”

Referring to the political and security developments in the region in the last decade, Raisi emphasized, “The warriors of the resistance have proven that they are a reliable force for establishing stability and security in the region, including in Syria.”

Emphasizing the need for all countries to respect Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity, the president stated that Iran stood by the Syrian people and government when some Arab and non-Arab leaders in the region were betting on the time of the fall of the Syrian government.

Raisi went on to say that the bravery demonstrated by the Syrian Army, national defense forces and Resistance fighters in the region, especially Hezbollah, played a key role in uprooting Daesh and other terrorist groups that threatened the security of the entire region.

Raisi also expressed regret that important parts of the Syrian territory are still occupied by foreign forces, suggesting, “The whole of the Syrian land must be liberated from foreign occupiers. This occupation should not be subject to the passage of time, and the occupying forces and their mercenaries should be expelled.”

Referring to repeated aggressions of Israeli forces, the president stressed that the threats of the Israeli regime in the region should be addressed by “strengthening and diversifying the deterrence equations.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, Raisi referred to the need to strengthen cooperation and coordination between the two countries, emphasizing, “The serious will and desire of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to improve the level of cooperation and relations with Damascus, especially in economic and trade fields.”

For his part, Syrian president stressed the role of Iran in the fight against terrorism in the region, noting that his country is ready for broader coordination with Iran in security, political and economic fields.

The Syrian president added, “In the years of resistance and confrontation with Western and Takfiri aggressions, Iran was the only country that stood by us from the beginning.”

He described the relations between Syria and Iran as “strategic” and stated that developments in the region after a decade of war against the axis of resistance, have shown that resistance is effective and vibrant.

“We have shown that by working closely with the countries of the region, we can defeat the United States and the hegemons who claim to be superpowers, and today we are witnessing the collapse of the role of the United States in the Western Asia region,” Assad stated, adding that the world is witnessing the declining role of the United States in the region.

Elsewhere in the conversation, the Syrian president said, “Experience has shown that the coordination and interaction of countries in the region on various issues, including the Palestinian issue, has been very effective, and the success of the Palestinian resistance has shown that compromise by some Arab states has backfired.”

Thanking Iran’s support for the Syrian people in the war on terrorism, Assad said, “The Syrian people and government are grateful to the Iranian people and consider themselves committed and indebted to Iran.”

Angry Americans Hysterical Reactions

After Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi virtually addressed the 76th United Nations General Assembly, many political analysts commented on the contents of his speech. However, what is interesting is that the authors of the JCPOA are crying over an empty coffin. 

To examine this issue, let’s review what the president told the UN General Assembly.

“Sanctions are the US new way of war with the nations of the world,” Raisi said at his speech. 

Is this a remark that anyone can object it? No. The fact is the United States has imposed crippling sanctions against Iran cannot be denied. Even the American or hardliner Israeli analysts admit this. As the Iranian president rightfully said, sanctions against the Iran started “not with my country’s nuclear program; they even predate the Islamic Revolution and go back to the year 1951 when oil nationalization went underway in Iran…”

The United States went too far in its illegal sanctions on Iran to the extent that strict financial sanctions even impeded the import of medicine and medical equipment to Iran at the time of the global Coronavirus pandemic. There is little doubt that the Americans committed medical terrorism against the Iranian people. Raisi also pointed to this fact in his speech.

“Sanctions, especially on medicine at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, are crimes against humanity,” he said.

He also emphasized, “I, on behalf of the Iranian nation and millions of refugees hosted by my country, would like to condemn the continued illegal US sanctions especially in the area of humanitarian items, and demand that this organized crime against humanity be recorded as a symbol and reality of the so-called American human rights.”

Soon after the speech, a network of analysts and commentators started bashing Raisi, as well as screaming over a revival of the JCPOA. Since Raisi administration took the power in early August, Iran started to patiently evaluate the situation to return to the negotiations table. In a phone call on 14th September 201 with former British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that Iran is in the process of “consultations on how to continue the Vienna talks,. He reiterated to welcome negotiations that have tangible results and secure the rights and interests of the Iranian people.”   

This is what the Iranian president had previously touched on during first TV interview on 5th September.

“Negotiation is an option as a tool for diplomacy, but negotiation under pressure and threats is not acceptable at all,” Raisi insisted.

After Raisi’s speech, Ali Vaez, Director of Iran Project and Senior Advisor to the Crisis Group tweeted, “.@raisi_com’s speech at #UNGA was one of the most anti-American speeches I’ve heard from an Iranian president in years.” 

Barbara Slavin, Director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, replied to Vaez’s tweet, saying, “As harsh as @Ahmadinejad1956 but more coldly rational. Did you notice at the end, #Raisi said #Iran wanted 'large scale economic and political cooperation with all countries of the world? We need to remember, as well, that he is only the front man, not the decider.” 

Yet, the most predictable strategy was outlined by the CEO of The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), Mark Dubowitz.

He tweeted, “Raisi’s new negotiating team will ask for total sanctions relief and give less than the JCPOA. @USEnvoyIran @Rob_Malley will give them 97% and then pretend that they held the line and that there’s a “longer and stronger” deal to be had.”

It seems that the thinkers, who helped draft the JCPOA, don’t agree with the text anymore, as it ostensibly contradicts their desires. The plan is now clear. Bashing Raisi and his foreign policy team with every tool in order to write a “longer and stronger” deal to satisfy desires is not helpful at all. But what is really a longer and stronger deal? 

The United States has always been interested in dragging the Iranian missile program into the negotiations. For eight years, since the intensive negotiations started, Iran has made it crystal clear that its defensive capabilities are not up for negotiations. Yet, the United States is using various pressure tools to impose a deal on Iran. Iran has always reiterated that it will only go back to the original 2015 JCPOA text, if and only if the US verifiably lifts all sanctions. 

As for Raisi’s speech, he condemned US terrorism and extremism in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, asked for the lifting of all sanctions, and restated that Iran will return to the Vienna talks were intended to revitalize the nuclear deal.

If this is too harsh for the Crisis Group, then it shows that the JCPOA revival is not their concern. Had it been so, they would not have objected to a rational speech in which Raisi insisted on the need to lift sanctions. It is advised that the thinkers would not shed crocodile tears over the JCPOA revival. 

Iran attains full member status of SCO

While the West impatiently waits for an affirmative nod from Iran for resuming the stalled Vienna nuclear talks over reviving a 2015 nuclear deal, the new administration of Iran patiently carves a strategic path toward cementing ties with the East. 

On Friday, Iran ended a 16-year peripheral status at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and became a full member in the regional body.

At the end of the 21st Summit of SCO held in Tajik capital Dushanbe, the leaders of the eight main members of the organization agreed to change the membership of the Islamic Republic of Iran from an observer member to a full member.

The membership was attained during the first foreign visit by Ayatollah Seyed Ebrahim Raisi in his capacity as President of Iran. This gives Raisi team a boost at the start of their Asia-oriented foreign policy. 

Iran’s attaining full membership of SCO could be termed the first step on the path of the Raisi administration’s stated policy of strengthening relations with neighbors and regional organizations. 

Addressing the SCO summit in Dushanbe, Ayatollah Raisi elaborated on this policy. “When I took over the presidency of the Islamic Republic, I introduced my foreign policy orientation as focusing on ‘economic multilateralism’ and strengthening ‘neighborhood policy’ in its broadest sense, and strengthening its presence in regional organizations,” he said. 

“The combination of the Eurasia and One Road-One Belt initiatives can be an objective realization of this approach, and the vast potential of the Islamic Republic of Iran in terms of geopolitics, population, energy, transportation, human resources, and most importantly spirituality, culture and civilization can cause a significant stimulus to this outlook,” Iranian president added,

Iran’s top diplomat, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, described the country’s membership in the SCO as “strategic” that will have an important impact on Iran’s “comprehensive” cooperation within the framework of the Neighborhood and Asia-oriented Policy.

The membership was made possible due to Russia’s support and diplomacy. Preparations for the realization of Iran’s joining the SCO first came to light in mid-August when Ali Shamkhan, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, announced after a phone call with his Russian counterpart Nikolai Patrushev that Iran will soon become a full member of the SCO.

“Fortunately, the political obstacles to Iran's membership in the Shanghai CO have been removed and Iran’s membership will be finalized,” Shamkhani said on Twitter in August. 

Abdollahian also said that his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin have supported Iranian membership. In a tweet on Friday, Abdollahian said he met with Lavrov on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Dushanbe and thanked him and Putin for their support of Iran’s membership in the organization.

Iran has been in talks with Russia and China in the last few years to sign long-term strategic partnerships that could shape its foreign policy for decades to come. By joining the SCO, Iran stepped closer to finalizing these partnerships and pushed forward its new Asia-centered foreign policy, which rests on two pillars: enhanced ties with neighbors and strategic partnerships with non-western powers. 

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh underlined this new policy in a tweet on Friday.

“Warmly welcome the decision of the SCO to approve Iran's full membership. It is a major step toward enhanced ties with neighbors and an important impetus for our Asia-centered foreign policy. We'll continue our efforts to build on indigenous initiatives for the good of the region,” Khatibzadeh said. 

Is west ready to bargain with new Iranian president?

For years, Iranian moderates, such as former President Hassan Rouhani, tried but failed to reach an understanding with the West. Now, a hardliner is in charge. Does President Ebrahim Raisi’s election spell the end of what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei once called Iran’s ‘heroic flexibility’ in dealing with the West? In the wake of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, the question now matters even more.

The answer is yes as well as no. Raisi is not going to take up the mantle of attempting to reconcile with the West. The ideological confrontation with the United States is central to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s fundamentalist identity.

Moreover, both moderates and radicals in Iran still view the strategy of building a proxy-supported Iranian ‘empire’ across the Middle East—advanced by the late military commander Qassem Suleimani, who was assassinated by the US last year—as vital to uphold and advance the Islamic Revolution’s purpose. No true rapprochement is possible between the West and Iran, especially now that hardliners are fully running the show.

It’s also worth noting that ‘heroic flexibility’ never applied to Iran’s dealings with Israel—another fundamental bugbear. Raisi’s administration will certainly maintain Iran’s shadow war with the ‘Zionist entity’.

Iran’s recent attack on an Israeli-managed cargo ship near Oman in the Arabian Sea has been viewed by some as a kind of strategic shift—or, at least, escalation—as it represented a blatant violation of freedom of navigation in international waters. But, in truth, it is merely a continuation of a war in which both Iran and Israel have never shown much regard for international norms.

Israel assumed that, by not using its own merchant fleet—99% of its foreign trade is handled by international ships, it could avoid such assaults. But just as Iran’s forces in Syria are vulnerable to Israeli attacks, Israeli-linked entities in the Arabian Sea, a theatre thousands of miles from the country’s coast, but close to Iran’s mainland are vulnerable to Iranian attacks.

Iran will not forgo the opportunities this represents, not only to impose direct costs on Israel, but also to undermine the Abraham Accords, which, by establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and four Arab states, are viewed by Iran as a strategic setback. Already, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are reaching out to Iran, out of concern that US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy in the region won’t protect their interests.

But none of this means that Iran is gearing up for a direct confrontation with the West. Raisi has inherited an economy on life support. The Covid-19 pandemic and Western sanctions have cost Iran about 1.5 million jobs. Moreover, oil and gas export revenues have plummeted; annual inflation has reached almost 50%, with the cost of basic foods soaring by nearly 60%.

Clearly, Khamenei’s 2011 vision of a self-reliant Iranian ‘resistance economy’ hasn’t been realized. Furthermore, now that Raisi is President, Iran’s hardliners can no longer blame pro-Western moderates for Iran’s economic woes. To stave off potential unrest, Iran’s government must stem the economy’s decline by persuading the international community to ease sanctions, which will require it to reach some sort of understanding with the US over its nuclear program.

Russia and China are Iran’s more natural allies, but neither country will give Iran the resources it needs to sustain its costly proxy wars or reverse its economic decline. China, in particular, views Iran as a pawn in its broader chess match with the US, one that it would willingly sacrifice for, say, an agreement on vital trade issues.

An Iranian empire in the Middle East is simply not a strategic priority for China. At the same time, Iranian fundamentalists can’t be too happy with their Chinese ally’s brutal crackdown on its Muslim Uyghur population. The bilateral relationship thus does not represent a way out of Iran’s current predicament.

A new nuclear agreement is an existential imperative for Iran. And, as much as he dislikes the idea of striking a deal with the US, Khamenei understands this. Remaining on the threshold of nuclear breakout, a position it attained following America’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, without actually crossing it may be Iran’s current bargaining position. This is what Raisi might have meant when, prior to his election, he upheld Iran’s need to return to the JCPOA in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

But the real bone of contention lies not in whether the parties are willing to go back to the old JCPOA, but the terms on which Iran would accept the US demand for a new, long-term deal once the JCPOA expires. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has unrealistically called for a ‘longer and stronger’ accord, one that stops Iran from amassing nuclear material for generations, halts its missile tests and ends its support of terrorist groups.

What is clear is that Washington should do all it can to encourage Iran’s ‘heroic flexibility’. After America’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the last thing the US needs is even more chaos in the Middle East. Likewise, the victory in Afghanistan of the Sunni Taliban, staunch ideological enemies of Shia Iran, should strengthen Iran’s commitment to avoid stoking conflict with the West. Now might be as good an opportunity as the US is going to get to reach a lasting nuclear agreement with Iran.

Prospects of US joining JCPOA getting bleaker

According to an AP report, Biden administration officials are insisting that the election of a hard-liner as Iran’s president won’t affect reviving the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. But, there are signs that prospects of concluding a deal are getting bleaker.

Optimism that a deal was imminent faded as the talks ended on Sunday without tangible indications of significant progress. On Monday, in his first public comments since the vote, incoming Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi rejected a key Biden goal of expanding on the nuclear deal if negotiators are able to salvage the old one.

Raisi is likely to raise the Iran’s demands for sanctions relief in return for Iranian compliance with the deal, as he himself is already subject to US human rights penalties.

“I don’t envy the Biden team,” said Karim Sadjapour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who has advised multiple US administrations on Iran. “I think the administration now has a heightened sense of urgency to revise the deal before Raisi and a new hard-line team is inaugurated.”

President Joe Biden and his team have made the US return to the deal one of their top foreign policy priorities. The deal was one of President Barack Obama’s signature achievements; one that aides now serving in the Biden administration had helped negotiate and that Donald Trump repudiated and tried to dismantle as president.

Despite Raisi’s impending presidency, Biden administration officials insist prospects for reaching an agreement are unaltered. They argue that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who signed off the 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will make the final decision, regardless of who is president.

“The president’s view and our view is that the decision leader is the supreme leader,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday. “That was the case before the election; it’s the case today; it will be the case probably moving forward.”

“Iran will have, we expect, the same supreme leader in August as it will have today, as it had before the elections, as it had in 2015 when the JCPOA was consummated for the first time,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said.

But hopes for substantial progress fizzled last week ahead of the Iranian election amid a flurry of speculation about the impact of the vote on the indirect talks between Iran and the US in Vienna. Diplomats and others familiar with the talks had thought the last round, the sixth, could produce at least a tangible result even if it fell short of a full deal.

Now, that round has ended and a seventh round has yet to be scheduled as Raisi, Iran’s conservative judiciary chief, brandished an absolute rejection of anything more than Iran’s bare minimum compliance with the 2015 agreement in exchange for a lifting all of US sanctions.

In his public comments Monday, Raisi brushed aside US calls for Iran to agree to follow-on discussions on expanding the initial nuclear deal to include its ballistic missile program and its support for regional groups that the US designates terrorist organizations.

“It’s nonnegotiable,” Raisi said’

Iran experts agree it will be a tough, if not impossible, for Biden to get Iran to go beyond the nuclear agreement.

“I’m very skeptical that once we’ve lifted the sanctions to get them to return they’ll feel any incentive to come back and negotiate more concessions,” Sadjapour said. “And, if we coerce them with sanctions to come back to the table, they’ll argue that we’ve abrogated our end of the nuclear deal again.”

Critics of the nuclear deal maintain that the administration has already given away too much in exchange for too little by signaling its desire to repudiate Trump’s repudiation of the nuclear deal. And, they say that even if Iran agrees to some sort of additional talks, the pledge will be meaningless.

“It was pretty obvious that the Iranians were never going to negotiate in good faith beyond the JCPOA,” said Rich Goldberg, a Trump administration National Security Council official who has espoused a hard line on Iran.

“But now, even if the administration gets some sort of face-saving language from the Iranians about future talks, Raisi has already said they’re not interested. The jig is up,” he said. “You can’t come back to a skeptical Congress, allies and deal opponents and say the promise means anything it means when Raisi has already said it doesn’t.”

But administration officials are adamant that as good as the nuclear deal is, it is insufficient and must be improved on.

“We do see a return to compliance as necessary but insufficient, but we also do see a return to compliance as enabling us to take on those other issues diplomatically,” Price said, adding that the point had been made clear to the Iranians “in no uncertain terms.”

An additional complication is that Raisi will become the first serving Iranian president sanctioned by the US government even before entering office, in part over his time as the head of Iran’s internationally criticized judiciary — a situation that could complicate state visits and speeches at international forums such as the United Nations.

Psaki and Price both said that the US will continue to hold Raisi accountable for human rights violations for which he was sanctioned by the Trump administration.

Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and set about a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that included re-instating all the sanctions eased under the agreement along with adding a host of new ones.

World leaders congratulate Ebrahim Raisi

World reacts to election of Iran’s new hardline President Ebrahim Raisi. While many leaders lined up to congratulate Raisi on his victory, some groups criticized his human rights record.

Iran

Outgoing President Rouhani visited Raisi at his office to congratulate him. “We will stand by and cooperate fully with the president-elect for the next 45 days, when the new government takes charge (in early August),” state media quoted Rouhani as saying.

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Raisi and expressed hopes for “further development of a constructive bilateral cooperation”, according to RIA news agency citing a press officer at the Russian embassy in Tehran.

Pakistan

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said he looked forward to working with Raisi towards “further strengthening” of fraternal ties between Pakistan and Iran for “regional peace, progress and prosperity”.

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan congratulated Raisi on his victory, saying he believed cooperation between the two neighbors would become stronger during Raisi’s term. “Stating my belief that cooperation between our two countries will strengthen during your presidency, I am ready to work together with you,” Erdogan said in a letter sent to Raisi.

Syria

Assad congratulated Raisi on his victory and said he was keen to work with the new president to strengthen ties between the two countries, a statement from the Syrian presidency said.

Iraq

“I extend my sincere congratulations and blessings on the occasion of your [Raisi’s] election as President of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Iraq’s President Barham Salih said. “We in Iraq look forward to strengthening our solid relations with our neighbor Iran and its people.”

Hamas

“We congratulate the Islamic Republic of Iran for the success of the democratic process, the holding of the presidential election and the victory of Ebrahim Raisi as Iran’s president,” Hazem Qassem, Hamas spokesman in Gaza, said in a statement.

“We wish the Islamic Republic of Iran progress and prosperity. Iran has always been a fundamental and a real supporter of the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian resistance.”

United Arab Emirates

“We wish for the Islamic Republic, and for our bilateral relations, stability, continuity and prosperity,” Vice-President and de facto Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid said in a statement tweeted by Dubai’s media office.

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed also sent a message of congratulations to Raisi, state news agency WAM reported.

Human Rights Watch

Raisi’s path to presidency was through “repression and an unfair election”, Michael Page, deputy Middle East director at HRW, said in a statement.

“As head of Iran’s repressive judiciary, Raisi oversaw some of the most heinous crimes in Iran’s recent history, which deserve investigation and accountability rather than election to high office.”

Amnesty International

Head of human rights group Agnes Callamard said Raisi’s election win called for Raisi to be investigated for “crimes against humanity”.

“That Ebrahim Raisi has risen to the presidency instead of being investigated for the crimes against humanity of murder, enforced disappearance and torture, is a grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran,” she posted on Twitter.

“We continue to call for Ebrahim Raisi to be investigated for his involvement in past and ongoing crimes under international law, including by states that exercise universal jurisdiction.”

Ebrahim Raisi Elected New President of Iran

The moderate candidate in Iran's presidential election has conceded loss in the country's presidential race to the country's hard-line judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi.

Former Central Bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati wrote on Instagram to judiciary chief Raisi early on Saturday.

"I hope your administration provides causes for pride for the Islamic Republic of Iran, improves the economy and life with comfort and welfare for the great nation of Iran."

According to preliminary vote count, Raisi won 62 percent or 17.8 million votes, to Rezaei's 3.3 million and Hemmati's 2.4 million, said Jamal Orf, the head of Iran's Interior Ministry election headquarters.

The fourth candidate, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received around one million votes, Orf said.

The official said more than 28 million Iranians out of 59 million eligible voters had cast ballots.

The initial results announced also appeared to show the race had the country's lowest turnout of any vote since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, the vote had no international observers to monitor the election in line with past years.

Vote count was still underway, but reports suggest Raeisi could be winning by a big margin.

Iran's moderate President Hassan Rouhani announced his successor had been elected, but did not name the widely expected victor.

"I congratulate the people on their choice," said Rouhani after Friday's vote as other candidates also congratulated Raisi. "My official congratulations will come later, but we know who got enough votes in this election and who is elected today by the people."

Raisi did not immediately acknowledge Hemmati's concession, nor that of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei, who also conceded the loss.

Mohsen Rezaei's concession in a post on Twitter came as Iran's outgoing President Hassan Rouhani also acknowledged the winner in the country's vote Friday was "clear," though he didn't immediately name judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi. 

On Twitter, Rezaei praised Khamenei and the Iranian people for taking part in the vote.

"God willing, the decisive election of my esteemed brother, Ayatollah Dr. Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, promises the establishment of a strong and popular government to solve the country's problems," Rezaei wrote.

The election on Friday was dominated by Raisi, a protégé of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the disqualification of the strongest competitors who could have challenged him in the vote. 

As night fell Friday, turnout appeared far lower than in Iran’s last presidential election in 2017.