JCPOA no longer relevant, says IAEA chief

Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has said that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is no longer viable, appearing to place sole responsibility for the 2015 nuclear deal's lame-duck state on Iran.

"The philosophy of the initial JCPOA agreement can be used as a basis, but the agreement itself is no longer necessary," Grossi remarked during his visit to Italy for discussions with the Foreign Ministry. 

The UN nuclear chief pointed out that Iran is now enriching uranium to levels of 60%, a threshold that he said brings the country close to the capability to produce military-grade uranium, which requires enrichment to 90%. "Iran is rapidly approaching the status of a nuclear state," he claimed. 

Grossi omitted any mention of the West's abandonment of the deal, the factor that prompted Iran to curtail some of its JCPOA commitments in the first place. 

The JCPOA was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries (the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China). It aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the termination of sanctions.

Washington unilaterally withdrew from the pact in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions against Iran. European signatories to the deal not only failed to take the sting out of US sanctions but also came up with anti-Iran bans of their own. 

Tehran began to scale back on some of its JCPOA commitments in 2020, under a new law passed by the Iranian parliament. 
 

 

 

Iran: Zarif to lead transitional council

Iran's President-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, has appointed former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as the head of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations for the transition period in his first presidential decree. 

Zarif was one of the most prominent reformist figures backing Pezeshkian during his presidential campaign. The former foreign minister became a household name after he brokered the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. 

The council, comprised of experts and advisors, will focus on assessing potential candidates for key cabinet positions and ensuring a seamless handover of leadership. 

In a message on his X account, Zarif said Pezeshkian has yet to choose candidates for any vice-presidency or ministerial positions. 

"So far, no candidate for any position, including first vice president, has even been considered,” the former top diplomat announced. "The review process will start after receiving proposals from NGOs, scientific associations, trade associations, and the private sector." 

The council is reportedly set to convene meetings with various stakeholders on Saturday to conduct thorough evaluations of potential candidates.

Pezeshkian's office had earlier issued a call for input on cabinet members, inviting a wide range of social groups and political parties to participate in the process. 

 

SCO and transformation of world order

Iran's inclusion in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a significant development, considering the UN Security Council sanctions it still faces. The SCO members had previously agreed that any state wishing to join should not have any UN Security Council sanctions imposed on it. This issue holds importance when analyzing the transformation in the world order.

Iran's membership in the SCO is not a result of the removal of Security Council sanctions through the JCPOA. Iran continues to be sanctioned by the Security Council, and a list of Iranian individuals and entities under these sanctions can be found on the UN website.

It is worth noting that the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization no longer attribute the same importance to the UN Security Council in the current circumstances. This suggests that even if the West triggers the snapback mechanism and reinstates previous Security Council resolutions against Iran, it is unlikely to affect Iran's membership in the SCO.

The UN Security Council has traditionally been viewed as a fundamental pillar of the post-Cold War world order. However, Iran's inclusion in the SCO signifies a significant blow to its authority, emphasizing the operational phase of the transformation in the world order.

The US victory in the Cold War, is facing a crisis of attractiveness and effectiveness. The number of liberal democracies in the world has decreased, and only a small percentage of the global population lives in such countries.

United States, as the leader of the liberal order, is experiencing economic and social crises rooted in the liberal ideology. The effectiveness of the US hard and soft power in safeguarding the liberal order has diminished, and it has been repeatedly defeated by its rivals.

The RAND Corporation has proposed the concept of Power to Coerce as an alternative to the US traditional power sources. This concept includes financial sanctions, cyber operations, and support for internal opposition. Financial sanctions have been a crucial tool in America's foreign policy toolbox, but their effectiveness is diminishing due to overuse.

Ukraine crisis and unprecedented sanctions against Russia have provided an opportunity to neutralize the US financial sanctions through the development of non-dollar payment systems and reserves.

There is a consensus about the emergence of a new multipolar order. However, with the collapse of communism and liberalism, there will no longer be an order based on a hegemonic ideology claiming civilization.

Instead, international cooperation and interactions will be based on mutual interests, with power units and weaker countries operating within their spheres of influence.

China and Russia are economic and military power units but lack a civilizational ideology to lead the creation of a new order.

In this context, Islam can emerge as the only leading ideology for creating a new civilization.

In light of the current challenges faced by the liberal order and the emergence of a new multipolar order, it is crucial for Islamic countries to assert their interests and values.Islamic countries should adopt a two-pronged strategy in the current period.

The first prong should focus on undermining the remaining foundations of the US leadership in order to end the liberal order. The second prong should focus on shaping a new internal order based on shared Islamic values.

It is proposed that Muslim countries establish a charter based on their shared Islamic values. This "Muslim Nations Charter" with its special institutions would serve as an alternative to the current "United Nations Charter," which is rooted in liberal values and has institutions dedicated to its defense.

 

Iranian oil output increases by 350,000 bpd

According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Iran’s crude oil output has increased by about 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) since the beginning of 2023, despite the US sanctions targeting the country’s oil sector.

“Despite tough financial restrictions, Iran managed to increase crude oil output by about 130,000 bpd in 2022 to an average 2.55 million bpd, and by 350,000 bpd since the beginning of this year,” the IEA said in its latest report dubbed Oil 2023.

The report argued that Iran remains a wildcard for world oil markets, and if it is released from sanctions, production could ramp up gradually by roughly 900,000 bpd to reach the capacity of 3.8 million bpd.

Higher exports and domestic throughput have pushed Iranian crude production up to around 2.9 million bpd in May 2023, it added.

Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Iran has been shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

The crude shipments have doubled since last autumn to reach 1.6 million barrels a day in May 2023, according to the report.

A Reuters report said on July 16, 2022 that Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

The United States, under former president Donald Trump, abandoned the nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in May 2018 and reinstated unilateral sanctions that the agreement had lifted.

Tehran's oil exports have been limited since May 2018. However, the exports have risen steadily during the term of current US President, Joe Biden.

The crude exports exceeded 1.5 million bpd in May 2023, the highest monthly rate since 2018, Reuters reported quoting Kpler, a major international tanker-tracking service.

The exports were roughly 2.5 million bpd in 2018, before the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Iran said in May it has boosted its crude output to above three million bpd. That's about three percent of global supply and would be the highest since 2018, according to figures from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

SVB International, a consultant, estimates crude production hit 3.04 million bpd in May, up from 2.66 million bpd in January. Exports of crude and condensate were 1.93 million bpd in May, according to the report.

"Sanctions are in place but perhaps they are not fully implemented or monitored," said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB.

The recently published figures are the latest sign that US sanctions on Iran have failed to cut the country’s oil revenues to zero, an objective frequently stated by former and current US administration officials.

They also vindicate efforts by Iran in recent years to rely more on diplomatic and economic resources to circumvent US sanctions rather than to submit to Washington’s pressure to scale back its nuclear, defense, and foreign policy programs in return for an easing of the sanctions.

In May, senior US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham confessed to the ineffectiveness of the sanctions that have been unilaterally imposed on Iran.

Graham slammed the Biden administration for failing to stop Iran’s oil exports.

“Iranians are making more money under sanctions not less and China is the biggest reason we're not doing a damn thing about it,” he reportedly said.

Germany resumes oil imports from Iran

Germany has imported a significant shipment of crude oil or petroleum products from Iran for the first time in five years, according to the latest data by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Germany imported 69,737 tons of crude oil or petroleum products from Iran in March 2023 despite the US sanctions that ban any trade of energy products with Iran, IRNA reported.

The country's last import of Iranian crude was a 10,000 tons shipment in October 2018.

Germany's move comes at a time when the US government has yet to make any changes to its unlawful sanctions policy against Iran despite its claim of seeking a diplomatic solution to ease tensions.

Bulgaria, another EU member, also imported 147 tons crude oil or petroleum products from Iran in the first quarter of the year 2023, although the figure is relatively small, according to Eurostat.

The European Union’s total oil imports from Iran during this period, based on data by Eurostat, was 69,884 tons, a figure not seen since 2018 when the US withdrew from the historic nuclear deal with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Now after five years, European refineries seem increasingly inclined to disregard U.S. sanctions, particularly in the wake of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine.

 

Iran rejects signing interim pact with United States

According to reports, Iran and the United States are concluding an interim deal that calls for partial sanctions relief on the Islamic Republic in exchange for modifications to the nation’s nuclear energy program have been rejected by Iran's mission to the UN.

The London-based Middle East Eye (MEE) website purportedly said that both countries were close to reaching such an agreement despite the stalling of negotiations on the renewal of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

It cited two unnamed sources as saying Iran and the United States were nearing a temporary deal that would swap some sanctions relief for reducing Iranian uranium enrichment activities.

The MEE also cited the sources as saying the two sides have reached an agreement on a temporary deal to take to their respective superiors.

The report said Iran would commit to cease enriching uranium to purity of 60% or above and would continue cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog in return for being allowed to export up to one million barrels of oil per day and gaining access to its income and other frozen funds abroad.

A White House National Security Council spokesperson also denied the MEE report on Thursday, labeling it false and misleading.

The spokesperson added, "Any reports of an interim deal are false."

According to National News, Iran's mission also said, "Our comment is the same as the White House comment."

Iran and a number of countries, including the United States, concluded an agreement known as the JCPOA in July 2015. The Islamic Republic was given a little amount of sanction relief as a result, and it subsequently offered to modify part of its nuclear activity. The agreement went into force in January 2016.

However, the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under the administration of former President Donald Trump, reinstating all the sanctions that it had waived.

In April 2021, talks were resumed under Joe Biden’s presidency to renew the accord. However, since Washington has refused to provide assurances that it won’t back out of the pact again, the negotiations have been stalled since September 2022.

The Iranian mission to the UN stated that there is no interim agreement meant to replace the JCPOA and that no such agreement is on the table.

On Wednesday, Mohsen Naziri Asl, Iran’s permanent representative to the United Nations in Vienna, mentioned the U.S.’s self-proclaimed willingness to rejoin the JCPOA.

“Despite the arduous negotiations that lasted for more than 18 months, mainly due to the lack of American political will and determination, we could not bring the talks to a conclusion,” he added.

The talks to revive the JCPOA started in April 2021 and lasted until September 2022.

Naziri Asl described Iran’s recent cooperative efforts with the IAEA as constructive and logical, calling expectations from Iran unreasonable and illogical.

“Iran’s nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment at various levels, are completely peaceful and in accordance with the Iranian people’s rights based on the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and are under the supervision and verification of the IAEA safeguards,” the top diplomat emphasized.

According to the diplomat, the US government has lately emphasized in many occasions that reviving the JCPOA is not on the agenda for months, expressing concern that certain parties have turned a blind eye to the irresponsible attitude, and are even aligning with it.

“The measure shows that miscalculations and minor political considerations are dominating the revival of an agreement that the international community has invested for years to achieve,” Naziri Asl remarked.

He also said, “It is a matter of serious concern that despite Iran’s extensive cooperation with the UN nuclear agency, the European Union, especially Germany, Britain and France, continue to resort to outdated tactics and play a dirty game with political motivation to target Iran’s ongoing cooperation with the IAEA.”

 

 

United States sacrificing Iranian nuclear deal for Israel election

Talks in Vienna over reviving a 2015 Iran nuclear deal appear to have entered a stage of inertia amid Israeli and American preparations for upcoming elections. 

Nearly a month has passed since Iran submitted its response to a US response to the final text submitted by the European Union coordinator for the Vienna talks to resuscitate the tattered 2015 nuclear deal, commonly known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Nasser Kanaani announced that Iran had submitted its views on America’s response to the draft of a possible agreement on the removal of sanctions.

“After receiving the US response, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s team of experts precisely reviewed it, and Iran’s responses were drafted and submitted to the coordinator on September 08 following evaluations at different levels,” the official said.

“The submitted text has a constructive approach with the goal of finalizing the negotiations,” the spokesman added.

The United States was quick to respond. It described the Iranian response as unconstructive. Since then, US officials have repeated this, accusing Iran of derailing the conclusion of the talks, a charge Iran denies. 

After a bout of Iran-bashing remarks, the US plunged into silence as to when it would respond to the Iranian response. In the meantime, press reports alleged that the conclusion of the talks could be delayed until after the November congressional elections in the US and Israel. 

It seems that the Vienna talks have gotten stuck in electoral politics in Tel Aviv and Washington. Legislative elections are due on November 01, 2022, in Israel. A week later, US mid-term elections will kick off. Israel has entered what can be called election fever. The Vienna talks seem to have fallen victim to that fever.

On Thursday, Mossad Director David Barnea concluded a security-diplomatic visit to Washington; the main objective was to dissuade the Biden administration from signing the JCPOA. 

“Mossad Director David Barnea, met various senior US officials, including Heads of CIA and FBI, National Security Advisor, Secretary Defense, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, and additional senior administration officials at the State Department,” a statement by the Israeli Prime Minister’s office said. 

The statement added, “During the meetings, the Director of the Mossad presented sensitive intelligence materials, and emphasized that Israel will not be able to stand idly by while Iran continues to deceive the world.”

It was issued after a meeting between Barnea and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who is facing fierce criticism from his political rivals, namely his predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu, over Israel’s policy toward the Vienna talks. 

Pundits believe that Lapid’s crusade against the JCPOA is primarily motivated by his desire to politically disarm his rivals in the approaching Knesset elections.

In a sense, pundits say, Lapid wants to derail the talks to convince Israeli voters that his campaign against Iran is no less fierce than Netanyahu's.

 

US adamant at keeping Iran out of oil market

Having imposed economic sanctions on Iran for more than four decades, especially after signing of nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, United States remains adamant at keeping Iran out of oil market. It may be recalled that when the things were taking some shape, President, Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal in 2018.

Nuclear negotiators who have gathered in Vienna after a five month-hiatus have indicated that they are optimistic about reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

“We stand five minutes or five seconds from the finish line,” Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov told reporters outside Vienna’s Palais Coburg on Sunday, four days into the talks. He said there are “three or four issues” left to be resolved.

“They are sensitive, especially for Iranians and Americans,” Ulyanov said. “I cannot guarantee, but the impression is that we are moving in the right direction.”

Enrique Mora, the European Union’s top negotiator who acts as mediator between Iran and the US, also said he is “absolutely” optimistic about the talks’ progress so far.

“We are advancing and I expect we will close the negotiations soon,” he told Iranian media.

The Wall Street Journal also said negotiations between Iran and the US on reviving the JCPOA are close to completion, Mora said on Sunday evening.

The text of an agreement could be closed in coming hours, said Mora.

According to the Iranian diplomats, experts are focusing on technical issues about Iran’s nuclear program.

Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), had confirmed on Saturday that the talks were mainly focused on Safeguards issues.

One of Iran’s demands is that the IAEA should stop unsubstantiated allegations regarding PMD that had already been resolved in July 2015, when the nuclear deal was struck.

In a telephone call with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Sunday afternoon, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, “We believe that the Agency should completely resolve the remaining issues related to the Safeguards Agreement by distancing itself from irrelevant and non-constructive political issues and through the technical channel.”

He added, “Nuclear weapons have no place in the defense doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran and are in contradiction to our policies and beliefs,” referring to a fatwa (religious decree) by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei declaring that the production, stockpile and use of nuclear weapons as forbidden.

"The Leader's fatwa that prohibits the use of nuclear weapons is clear-cut and is the final say for everybody," Iran's Foreign Minister said.

 

United States not keen in reviving Iran nuclear deal

The chances of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are worse after indirect United States-Iranian talks in Doha that ended without progress, a senior US official told Reuters.

"The prospects for a deal after Doha are worse than they were before Doha and they will be getting worse by the day," said the official on condition of anonymity.

"You could describe Doha at best as treading water, at worst as moving backwards. But at this point treading water is for all practical purposes moving backwards," he added.

The official would not go into the details of the Doha talks, during which European Union officials shuttled between the two sides trying to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement under which Iran had limited its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions.

Then US President Donald Trump reneged on the agreement in 2018 and restored harsh US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to start violating its nuclear restrictions about a year later.

"Their vague demands, reopening of settled issues, and requests clearly unrelated to the JCPOA all suggests to us ... that the real discussion that has to take place is (not) between Iran and the US to resolve remaining differences. It is between Iran and Iran to resolve the fundamental question about whether they are interested in a mutual return to the JCPOA," the senior US official said.

"At this point, we are not sure if they (the Iranians) know what more they want. They didn’t come to Doha with many specifics," he added. "Most of what they raised they either knew - or should have known - was outside the scope of the JCPOA and thus completely unsellable to us and to the Europeans, or were issues that had been thoroughly debated and resolved in Vienna and that we were clearly not going to reopen."

Speaking at the UN Security Council, US, British and French diplomats all placed the onus on Iran for the failure to revive the agreement after more than a year of negotiations.

Iran, however, characterized the Doha talks as positive and blamed the United States for failing to provide guarantees that a new US administration would not again abandon the deal as Trump had done.

"Iran has demanded verifiable and objective guarantees from the US that JCPOA will not be torpedoed again, that the US will not violate its obligations again, and that sanctions will not be re-imposed under other pretexts or designations," Iran's UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi told the council.

The senior US official said Washington had made clear since the talks began in April 2021 that it could not give Iran legal guarantees that a future US administration would stick to the deal.

"We said there is no legal way we can bind a future administration, and so we looked for other ways to give some form of comfort to Iran and … we - along with all of the other P5+1 (nations) and the EU coordinator - thought that file had been closed," the senior US official added.

Iran struck the original deal with Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany, a group called the P5+1.

The senior US official disputed Tehran's argument that Washington was to blame for the lack of progress, saying the United States had responded positively to proposed EU changes to the draft text of an agreement reached during wider talks in March while Iran had failed to respond to those proposals.

If the deal is not revived, he said "the Iranian leadership would need to explain why it turned its back on the benefits of the deal for the sake of issues that wouldn't make a positive difference in the life of a single ordinary Iranian."

The US official did not detail those issues. Restoring the deal would allow Iran to legally export its oil - the life blood of its economy.

Washington obstructing Iranian nuclear deal, says Russian Foreign Minister

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov has accused Washington of obstructing the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by trying to introduce amendments to the nuclear agreement.

Speaking at a joint press conference with his Bahraini counterpart, Abdul Latif bin Rashid Al Zayani in Manama, Lavrov stressed Moscow will continue to work to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. 

He accused the United States of trying to obtain new gains by trying to introduce amendments to the agreement, stressing that the solution lies in returning to the implementation of the JCPOA regarding the Iranian nuclear program.

Lavrov stressed that his country will continue its plan to establish security in the Persian Gulf region, with the participation of Persian Gulf states including Iran, and to maintain peace and stability in the region.

Talks in Vienna over reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal still hang in the balance due to US stonewalling over a range of issues raised by Iran.

Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its fresh report on the state of cooperation with Tehran. It accused Iran of not providing credible explanations on three sites in which uranium particles have been allegedly found.

“Iran has not provided explanations that are technically credible in relation to the Agency's findings at those locations,” the report said according to Reuters. It added, “The Agency remains ready to engage without delay with Iran to resolve all of these matters.”

Iranian officials said the IAEA report does not reflect the level of cooperation between Iran and the Agency. Mohammad Reza Ghaebi, the acting head of Iran's permanent representative to the Vienna-based International Organizations, said the report is one-sided and fails to reflect Iran's considerable cooperation with the IAEA.

Russia has also said that the ball is now in the US court in terms of reviving the JCPOA. 

Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of Russia to International Organizations in Vienna, said Tuesday that it is up to the U.S. to make a decision on the Vienna talks. “The #ViennaTalks on #JCPAOA remains on pause since March 10, 2022.

According to mass media reports, Iran during the recent visit of the EU Coordinator to Tehran demonstrated certain degree of flexibility and now waits for a response from the US side. The ball is in Washington’s court,” he said on Twitter.

After a two-month lull in the talks, Iran appeared on Tuesday to be mounting new diplomatic efforts to push the talks forward. Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s chief negotiator, left Tehran for Oslo on Tuesday.

“Today, I departed for Oslo in continuation of recent regional and international consultations. Serious talks over bilateral, regional and international issues are on the agenda of this trip. We stress the development of relations between Iran and Norway along with our efforts to secure [our] national interests including the removal of illegal sanctions,” he said on Twitter.

The Iranian efforts come as the US keeps airing pessimism on the prospects of the talks succeeding. In his recent testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley struck a pessimistic note on the Vienna talks. 

“As I speak to you today, we do not have a deal with Iran and prospects for reaching one are, at best, tenuous,” Rob Malley told senators. He blamed the lull in talks on Iran, saying that if Iran maintains demands that go beyond the scope of the JCPOA, there will be no deal.

Iran and the US have been negotiating in Vienna through intermediaries since April 2021. But they are yet to reach a final deal.

United States portrayal of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

As negotiations between the world powers and the Islamic Republic of Iran continues over the revival of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the last barrier to a deal is, Tehran’s demand for the United States to remove its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the foreign terrorist organization (FTO) list.

Naturally, this demand has triggered a heated debate in Washington between proponents and opponents. Proponents of such a move — including Khamal Kharrazi, former Iranian foreign minister — claim the IRGC does not belong on the FTO list as it is a national army that is no different from Saudi Arabia’s National Guard.

By contrast, opponents argue that removing the IRGC from the FTO list would legitimize an entity that has the characteristics of a terrorist organization and engages in widespread acts of terrorism.

A research prepared by a US Think-tank reveals that the nature of IRGC is not a conventional state armed force and should not be treated as such. The IRGC is an ideological organization that shares key characteristics with other designated Islamist organizations, including its quest for an expansionist Islamic state, a global Islamic order, forceful imposition of sharia law (Shi’a interpretation), militaristic concept of jihad, and anti-American and anti-Semitic ideology.

The finding of a US research paper reveals three visible trends in the IRGC. The first relates to indoctrination becoming an increasing focal point in the Guard. Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his hardline circle have sought to nurture a more radical IRGC generation by dedicating more time to ideological indoctrination of its members. The promotion system within the ranks of the IRGC also favors ideological conviction over technical expertise, ensuring the most zealous members rise up within the chain of command.

The second trend relates to the increasing priority given to Mahdism within the IRGC’s ideology. From the post-2009 period onwards, the doctrine of Mahdism has become one of the main prisms through which the IRGC and affiliated hardline clerics would understand the world around them and the IRGC’s actions, as well as communicate that understanding. In turn, there has been greater emphasis on viewing the IRGC as the military vehicle to prepare the foundations for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, with policy objectives such as hostility toward the US and the eradication of Israel being understood through this prism. This is consistent with the goal of Khamenei and his hardline allies, such as Ayatollah Alamalhouda, the supreme leader’s representative to Khorasan and President Ebrahim Raisi’s father-in-law, to transform the concept of Mahdism from a set of feelings into an “ideological belief.”

The third and final trend relates to the IRGC’s younger generations becoming more radical and extreme. In this regard, efforts by Khamenei and the Guard’s Ideological-Political Organization to nurture a more radical generation among the IRGC has paid, and is paying, dividends.

Against this backdrop, the rise of devout followers of the militaristic doctrine of Mahdism among the senior ranks of the IRGC is not inconceivable and should not be ruled out. While there is hope that the IRGC’s senior leadership will act pragmatically, internal structures within the Guard — including its indoctrination and promotion system — certainly open up the possibility that devoted Mahdists could occupy senior leadership positions.

Such a scenario could have far-reaching consequences as it would bring the three pillars of the IRGC’s foreign policy — militias, ballistic missiles, and the nuclear program — under their control. Even if a small number of devout Mahdists occupy senior positions in the Guard, it is possible that they may seek to facilitate and speed up the return of Mahdi. This would have major implications for some of the policies that are being understood through the prism of Mahdism, such as Israel’s existence being the “greatest barrier” to the reappearance of the 12th Imam.

At present the doctrine of Mahdism in the IRGC remains a complete blind spot for Western policymakers, yet it could have major implications for the Islamic Republic’s militia network, ballistic missile program, and even its nuclear program. Of course, no one knows for sure if devout adherents of the ideology will attain senior command positions in the IRGC. The objective of this paper, however, is simply to point out that it would be unwise not to prepare for this scenario given the huge implications it would have for US and global security.

United States urged to restore Iran nuclear deal

More than 40 former government officials and leading nuclear non-proliferation experts have expressed strong support for an agreement that returns Iran and the United States to comply with the 2015 nuclear deal.

The accord between Iran and the major world powers, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council through Resolution 2231.

The major world powers are P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany) together with the European Union.

The joint statement points out that if President of United States, Joe Biden fails to bring negotiations with Iran to a prompt and successful conclusion it would perpetuate the failed strategy pursued by the Trump administration and allow Iran to further improve its capacity to produce weapons-grade nuclear material. The result, the nuclear nonproliferation experts write, “would increase the danger that Iran would become a threshold nuclear-weapon state”.

Signatories of the letter include a former special representative to the president of the United States on non-proliferation, former US State Department officials, the United States’ former Ambassador to Israel, Russia, and the United Nations, and leading nuclear non-proliferation experts based in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

“A prompt return to mutual compliance with the JCPOA is the best available way to deny Iran the ability to quickly produce bomb-grade nuclear material,” the experts’ letters notes.

“It would reinstate full IAEA international monitoring and verification of Iran’s nuclear facilities, thus ensuring early warning if Iran were to try to acquire nuclear weapons—and possibly become the second state in the Middle East (in addition to Israel) with such an arsenal.”

Despite Iran’s compliance with the accord, former US President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in May 2018, reimposed sanctions that had been waived as part of the agreement and embarked on a pressure campaign designed to deny Tehran any benefit of remaining in compliance with the nuclear deal.

Iran continued to meet its JCPOA obligations until May 2019, when Tehran began a series of calibrated violations of the agreement designed to pressure the remaining JCPOA parties to meet their commitments and push the United States to return to the agreement. These violations, while largely reversible, have increased the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program.

“As a result of Trump administration policies,” the experts’ statement says, “it is now estimated that the time it would take Iran to produce a significant quantity (25 kg) of bomb-grade uranium (enriched to 90 percent U-235) is down from more than a year under the JCPOA, to approximately one or two weeks today.”

“Restoring the limits on Iran’s nuclear program will significantly increase (by many months) the time it would take Iran to produce a significant quantity of bomb grade material, which provides the margin necessary for the international community to take effective action if Iran were to try to do so,” the experts say.

“Just as importantly,” the experts write, “the JCPOA mandates unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring, verification, and transparency measures that make it very likely that any possible future effort by Iran to pursue nuclear weapons, even a clandestine program, would be detected promptly.”

Failure to bring Iran back under the limits established by the JCPOA would produce long-term adverse effects on the global non-proliferation regime, put US allies at greater risk, and create a new nuclear crisis, experts say.

Courtesy: International Press Syndicate

 

United States responsible for bringing Vienna talks to a halt

The United States is solely responsible for the current state of the Vienna talks, said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman on Monday. “Let us all not forget that the government which is in front of us today is not a government that adheres to its obligations,” Saeed Khatibzadeh told reporters in his weekly presser. 

The spokesman said the United States is trying to hold the remaining issues pertaining to the Vienna talk hostage to its internal affairs.

“Iran and Iranians cannot be patient forever. If the United States wants to reach an agreement, it must make a political decision as soon as possible,” he asserted.

When asked about European Union coordinator Enrique Mora's trip to Tehran, Khatibzadeh said, “During this trip, he carried some points of views and wanted to exchange opinions with us. We told Mora about our point of view. Our messages and demands were clear from the beginning. Mora's trip was to get us all out of this situation. Iran tried to use another way to resolve the remaining issues. So far, Iran has had the most initiatives.”

The spokesman continued by saying that Iran is waiting for the other side's response, but it has not received it yet.

On the pause in the talks, the diplomat said it was clear to Iran in the last two weeks that Joe Biden and the White House have not made their decision and have taken the whole agreement hostage to US partisan and internal affairs. 

“The Biden administration takes the same approach that has led to the failure of many international agreements, which is to make an international agreement subject to their own internal conflicts.

The JCPOA agreement and United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 are the perfect examples, and it is in this context that the Biden government must make its political decision,” Khatibzadeh noted.

The spokesman said that the United States is responsible for bringing the talks to a halt. 

“The solution is in the White House,” he reiterated. 

The US must respond logically to Iran's reasonable demands, which are approved by the P4+1 members, so that we are ready to return to Vienna, Khatibzadeh noted. 

“An agreement is very much available if the United States understands that we will not cross our red lines or fall short of our demands,” the diplomat asserted.

Responding to a question about the remaining issues in the negotiations, the spokesman said, “It was not at all like we connected the West Asia region to the JCPOA." 

Iran's benefits from the JCPOA are in accordance with the text of the agreement, and UNSCR 2231 is the main mission of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the spokesman said. 

“Now, in the final steps, the United States is trying to prevent Iran from benefitting from the various aspects of the JCPOA. We are at a point where the Biden administration wants to follow the failed legacy of the Trump administration or act as a semi-responsible government. International actors see that the Biden government is following the same path of the previous government,” Khatibzadeh pointed out.

Responding to a question, the diplomat said that illegal and unilateral sanctions have become a common practice in the United States.

“The US believes that it is the police of the world and the domestic laws of this country are international laws. Bullying will not work,” the spokesman remarked. 

Khatibzadeh once again reiterated that Iran’s red lines are the interests of the people and the benefit of what was once discussed.

“The whole deal depends on Washington's political decision. This has been the situation for weeks now. It is a matter of individuals and entities that should be removed from the sanctions list according to the JCPOA, in addition to Iran's economic benefits from the deal. These are issues that are delaying Washington's political decision,” he stressed. 

The diplomat stated that the Biden government must show that it is the true representative of the American people.

“We have not yet received the final answer from Washington, and if Washington's answer is appropriate, we can go to Vienna as soon as possible with the points raised, not for new negotiations, but to finalize the agreement. The response and signal must come from Washington,” the spokesman concluded. 

Talks in Vienna over reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have come to a standstill due to the Biden administration’s inability to make tough political decisions.

 

Iran and China discuss regional and international issues

Lately, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke on phone with the Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi about bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.

Iranian Foreign Minister said that if the United States is serious, a good and robust agreement on reviving the US-abandoned Iran deal may be reached through Vienna talks.

Amir Abdollahian briefed his Chinese counterpart on the latest developments in efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran deal.

“If the American side is realistic, we will finalize a good, strong, and lasting agreement with the support of all negotiating parties in Vienna,” Amir Abdollahian said.

He stated that Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible to settle the remaining unresolved concerns through consultation with relevant parties in order to strike a good deal.

Iran expressed gratitude to China for its constructive engagement in the talks and expressed optimism that China would continue to give assistance.

“Iran is ready to resume the negotiations as soon as possible to resolve the final outstanding issues through consultation with other parties and strive for a good agreement,” Abdollahian told Wang, thanking Beijing “for its constructive role in the negotiations.”

He also mentioned his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stating that the Russian side reaffirmed its support for the lifting of US sanctions against the Islamic Republic by participating constructively in the Vienna talks.

Iran insists it wants assurances that the US would not abandon the agreement again. It also wants that US sanctions to be lifted in a verifiable way.

For his part, Wang stated that China has long supported achieving an agreement on restoring the JCPOA and is open to and supportive of efforts to this end. 

“China is willing to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Iran to push the settlement of the Iran nuclear issue in a direction conducive to regional peace and stability,” the chief diplomat pointed out.

He went on to say that the Chinese side recognizes Iran's genuine concerns, supports Iran in protecting its legitimate rights and interests, and opposes unilateral sanctions that have no legal basis.

“China understands Iran’s legitimate concerns and supports Iran in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests and opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law.” Wang asserted.

In reference to the continued growth of bilateral relations, the Chinese foreign minister stated that Beijing places a high value on expanding exchanges with Tehran and has no reservations about extending such relationships.

“In the face of the rapidly evolving international and regional situation, China is ready to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Iran to push for the resolution of the Iran nuclear issue in a direction conducive to regional peace and stability,” Wang said.

Amir Abdollahian also emphasized the importance of Tehran-Beijing relations and the necessity to strengthen them, stating that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's government prioritizes the development of ties. 

China plans to host the summit of the Foreign Ministers of countries neighboring Afghanistan. It will be the third summit of its kind. Wang lauded Iran's Foreign Minister for accepting an invitation to participate in the meeting.

Amir Abdollahian met with his Russian counterpart Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister stated that “Russia remains onboard for the final agreement in Vienna.”

The Iranian Foreign Minister visited Russia at a time that mainstream Western media outlets are speculating that Russia is impeding the conclusion of the negotiations in Vienna.

“I am tired of speculations regarding the Russian position at the final stage of the #ViennaTalks,” Russia’s lead negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov said via Twitter early on Wednesday. “Misunderstandings, misinterpretations, and distortion of realities. The bottom line: conclusion of the agreement depends not on Russia, but on others, especially #US.”

There is a moratorium on the talks in Vienna to allow negotiators to return to their respective capitals for more contacts to address a few unresolved concerns.

All sides to the talks have openly said that they are nearing the end of the process. Washington stated on Monday that the parties involved are “close to the finish line.” Iran has urged the US to abandon its “excessive demands” in order to reach an agreement as soon as possible.

The United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and launched a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions and intimidation against Iran. The Vienna talks seek to push the US to completely respect the agreement by lifting all anti-Iran sanctions.

 

Russia clarifies demanding written guarantees from United States

Russia has provided clarifications on its demand for written guarantees from the United States regarding the talks in Vienna over reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The clarifications were offered in a briefing at the Russian Embassy in Tehran with a limited number of reporters.

In the meeting, Russian Ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan spoke in detail about the Russian special military operation in neighboring Ukraine. But he also spoke broadly about the Russian demand in Vienna.

Responding to questions from the Tehran Times about the nature of guarantees Russia is now demanding at the Vienna talk, the Russian Ambassador lambasted Western media for spreading misinformation about the Russian demand, underlining Moscow’s positive approach toward the 2015 nuclear deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), both during the 2015 negotiations that culminated in the deal and the current talks to revive it. 

“You now are hearing contradictory voices claiming that Russia does not want the JCPOA talks to succeed,” the ambassador told the press briefing, noting that these voices are wrong. “Russia has adopted a positive approach toward both the JCPOA negotiations in 2015 and the current talks. But it is natural that we will take into account our interests,” he added. 

The Russian demand for guarantees was first made public by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a joint press conference with Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Ruslan Kazakbayev in Moscow on March 05.

Responding to a question on the prospect for the conclusion of the Vienna talks in the near future, Lavrov said, “Some problems regarding the interests of the Russian Federation have arisen recently. Agreements on resuming the JCPOA provide for a package of reciprocal commitments.”

He added that the original JCPOA provided for the absence of any obstacles to trade, economic and investment relations with Iran and to the implementation of military-technical cooperation projects with it. This could seem all right, but the avalanche of aggressive Western sanctions that is still rolling down gives one food for thought. These sanctions should be primarily reviewed by the lawyers.

He then broached the issue of guarantees. “We would like to receive a clear answer. We need guarantees that sanctions will not affect in any way the regime of trade, economic and investment ties set out in the JCPOA on Iran’s nuclear program. We asked our American colleagues (because they are running the whole show here) to give us guarantees in writing, at least at the level of the Secretary of State, that the current process launched by the US will not impinge in any way on our free full-scale trade, economic, investment and military-technical cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said.

The European parties to the JCPOA hinted that the Russian demand is extraneous in their March 08 joint statement to the IAEA Board of Governors.

Iran has so far refrained from evaluating the Russian demand and preferred to pursue the matter through diplomatic channels. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke over the phone with Lavrov on Monday. Dzhagaryan said the two went over the Russian demand for guarantees in detail. 

The Russian Foreign Minister told his Iranian counterpart that the resuscitation of the JCPOA should ensure that all its participants have equal rights regarding the unhindered development of cooperation in all areas without any discrimination, according to a Russian Foreign Ministry statement.

Dzhagaryan reiterated this in his Wednesday briefing, saying that Russia wants the Vienna talks to achieve its goal. But we will also take into account our interests, he reiterated.

When asked to provide details about the guarantees Russia is seeking, the Ambassador said he is not authorized to give details in this regard. But he said, “We asked the United States. to give us a clear text on the guarantees which does not have any brackets so that we review it.”

Dzhagaryan said he is in regular contact with Iranian officials and they are fully aware of the Russian demand.

The Tehran Times asked the Russian ambassador whether the possible Western failure to provide written guarantees would impinge on the conclusion of the Vienna talks. “I’m not authorized to make predictions. Only the heads of the negotiating delegations in Vienna and the high-ranking officials in Moscow are in the know about this,” he said.

 

Iran January 2022 oil output rises 21%MoM

Iran’s crude oil production in January 2022 reached 2.503 million barrels per day (bpd), registering a 21% increase as compared to the figure for December 2021, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report. Iran had produced 2.482 million bpd of crude oil in December 2021.

The Iran’s average crude output for the fourth quarter of 2021 stood at 2.480 million bpd indicating a 40,000-bpd increase as compared to the figure for the first quarter of the year, the report indicated.

OPEC put the average Iranian crude output for 2021 at 2.405 million bpd, while the average output in 2020 was 1.988 million bpd.

These statistics show that although with the re-imposition of the US sanctions, Iran's oil production decreased; gradually the country has been able to compensate for part of the output decline.

The country’s heavy crude oil price also increased US$10.91 in January, to register a 14.6% rise as compared to the earlier month.

Iran sold its heavy crude oil at US$85.59 per barrel during the month, under review as compared to December price of US$74.68 per barrel. Based on the OPEC data, the country’s average heavy crude price was US$54.38 in 2021.

In addition to the devastating impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the global oil industry which resulted in the drastic fall in oil production and prices, the Iranian oil industry was under pressure from the US efforts to isolate the country by re-imposing sanctions in 2021.

Iran has been ramping up its oil production over the past few months following the recovery of the global markets from the negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and the developments in Vienna talks.

Back in February 2021, Fitch Solutions Incorporation, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, which is one of the three biggest credit rating agencies of United States, saw the Islamic Republic’s crude oil exports double in 2022 compared to 2020.

“The prospects for the Iranian oil sector have brightened significantly following Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election on November 3, 2020. President Biden has indicated that he will seek to re-enter the US into the Iranian nuclear deal, paving the way for a roll-back of secondary sanctions and recovery of around 2.0 million bpd in oil production,” the report said.

 

Iran society set to explode due to crippling sanctions, writes The Jerusalem Post

It is known to all and sundry that Israel is using a multi-pronged strategy to malign Iran and it ruling regime. One of its favorite tools is ‘disinformation’. The conventional media, mostly owned the West also love to run anti-Iran stories.   

The Jerusalem Post has revealed a highly sensitive Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps document that asserts Iranian society is in a state of explosion because of the crippling sanctions imposed on the nation due to its nuclear program.

The US government news organization Radio Farda obtained the document from Edalat-e Ali (Ali’s Justice), the whistleblower entity that has also secured confidential documents and video footage about the torture of Iranian prisoners.

According to Radio Farda’s Golnaz Esfandiari, who authored the exclusive article, “The document covers a meeting with IRGC’s intelligence wing and quotes an official named Mohammadi saying that Iran’s “society is in a state of explosion.” Mohammadi added, “Social discontent has risen by 300% in the past year.”

Radio Farda said it could not verify the authenticity of the document beyond the sourcing of Ali’s Justice.

The official noted that several shocks in recent months have shaken public trust in the regime of President Ebrahim Raisi, who is listed as a US-sanctioned person for his role in several mass murders, including the massacre of at least 5,000 Iranian political prisoners in 1988.

Radio Farda reported[ “Mohammadi referred to soaring inflation, including hikes in the price of food items, energy, and cars. He also noted the sharp declines in stock prices.”

“The leaked document includes notes from a November 2021 task-force meeting chaired by Brig.-Gen. Hossein Nejat, a senior IRGC commander and deputy head of Sarallah, a key IRGC base that oversees security in Tehran,” the station said.

Omri Ceren, the national security adviser for US Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has tweeted, “The Biden administration is giving Iran a nuclear weapons arsenal,” with a link to a Daily Mail article that declares, “Biden removes some Iran sanctions imposed by Trump, including unfreezing US$29 billion in bank accounts overseas, in a bid to return to Obama-era deal that three negotiators have resigned over.”

In addition to officials at the meeting from the IRGC, a US-classified terrorist organization the IRGC document noted that the meeting of the Working Group On the Prevention Of A Livelihood-Based Security Crisis was attended by the Basij militia, intelligence bodies, and the Tehran Prosecutor’s Office.

The Basij militia is a volunteer force frequently used to crush demonstrations against political and economic corruption of the theocratic state.

The Jerusalem Post had reported last month that Iran’s deputy interior minister, Taghi Rostamvandi, outlined factors during a speech that could shake the foundations of the theocratic state.

The Islamic Republic News Agency, the regime-controlled news agency of the Islamic Republic of Iran, reported that Rostamvandi warned that Iranians are seeking with greater frequency fundamental changes in the country and a secular government and way of life.

Revolts against the clerical state have erupted in Iranian society since the 1979 Islamic revolution, including the widespread Green movement protests in 2009 and massive unrest in 2019. 

 

Iran welcomes US sanctions move but terms these insufficient

The steps taken by the United States on lifting sanctions are ‘good but not enough’, Iran said following Washington’s announcement it was waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program.

The US action came as talks to restore a 2015 deal between Tehran and world powers over its nuclear program reached an advanced stage, with the issue of sanctions relief a major issue.

“The lifting of some sanctions can, in the true sense of the word, translate into their goodwill. Americans talk about it, but it should be known that what happens on paper is good but not enough,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, quoted by ISNA news agency.

The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also reflected Tehran’s view that the US move falls short.

“Real, effective and verifiable economic benefit for Iran is a necessary condition for the formation of an agreement,” Ali Shamkhani said in a tweet.

“The show of lifting sanctions is not considered a constructive effort.”

The US State Department said on Friday it was waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program in a technical step necessary to return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

Former US President, Donald Trump withdrew from the pact in 2018 and re-imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, prompting the Islamic Republic to begin pulling back from its commitments under the deal.

The waiver allows other countries and companies to participate in Iran’s civil nuclear program without triggering US sanctions on them, in the name of promoting safety and non-proliferation.

Iran’s civil program includes growing stockpiles of enriched uranium.

Amir-Abdollahian reiterated that one of the main issues in the JCPOA talks is obtaining guarantees that the US will not withdraw from the 2015 deal again.

“We seek and demand guarantees in the political, legal and economic sectors,” he said, adding “agreements have been reached in some areas”.

Iran is negotiating with Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia directly and with the US indirectly in the Vienna talks, which different parties say have reached a stage where the sides have to make important political decisions.

“Our negotiating team in the Vienna talks is seriously pursuing obtaining tangible guarantees from the West to fulfill their commitments,” said Amir-Abdollahian.

Foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said, “Iran is carefully considering any action that is in the right direction of fulfilling the obligations of the JCPOA”, Iranian media reported.

The European parties to the talks urged Iran to seize the opportunity of the US waivers.

“This should facilitate technical discussions necessary to support talks on JCPOA return in Vienna,” negotiators of Britain, France and Germany said in a joint statement on Saturday.

“We urge Iran to take quick advantage of this opportunity, because the timing of the waiver underscores the view we share with the US, we have very little time left to bring JCPOA talks to a successful conclusion.”

Russia offered Iran interim nuclear deal

Iran was offered an interim nuclear agreement by Russia with the knowledge of the United States. Citing numerous former and current US officials, NBC reported that Iran rejected Russia's interim proposal, which was reportedly given the go-ahead by the Biden administration.

One draft of Russia's proposed interim agreement would have seen the Islamic Republic forced to stop enriching uranium up to 60%. In addition, Iran would have had to dispose of its existing stockpile of enriched uranium.

In exchange, certain sanctions would have been lifted that meant Iran could have gained access to billions of dollars frozen in foreign bank accounts, including South Korea, where the US permitted to pay damages owed to an Iranian company in a move seen as a trust-building step.

However, Iran rejected Russia's proposal and the US distanced itself from Russia's attempts at an interim agreement, according to the report.

Earlier, the Islamic Republic denied a report it had reached a two-year interim agreement with world powers. An interim arrangement is not under serious discussion, NBC reported, citing a senior Biden administration official.

"Though we cannot speak for any discussions that may have taken place between Russia and Iran, at this stage we are certain that no such interim arrangement is being seriously discussed," the official reportedly said.

Russia's attempt at reaching an interim deal with Iran comes a day after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke with his American counterpart Antony Blinken, when the latter warned that talks with Iran have reached "a decisive moment."

Blinken said that, while the window of opportunity to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) still exists, Iran's nuclear advancements would foil any return to the accord if a fresh pact was not reached in the coming weeks.

Other voices around the negotiation table seem more optimistic, with a European Union official saying on Friday that the Vienna talks are moving in the right direction and a final agreement may be within reach. Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the deal resumed almost two months ago

Iranian satellite launch

Despite disagreements with Israel about strategy, the United States is worried about Iran getting nuclear weapons. Analysts believe the US should be more concerned about the Islamic Republic making nuclear missiles with a range that could hit the US rather than these missiles reaching Israel.

If during the current nuclear negotiations Iran carries out an expected satellite launch – which may have dual technology eventually applicable to launching an intercontinental ballistic missile – it will be directly aimed at inflaming this US fear in order to pummel Washington into new concessions and submission.

If Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes the political decision to go for a nuclear weapon, he could have sufficient weaponized uranium within three weeks.

Since the mid-1990s, Iran has had ballistic missiles with a range that could hit Israel, once it masters some additional detonation and delivery issues that would still take some undefined amount of time, Jerusalem might be under threat.

In contrast, the US is nowhere near the range of the ballistic missiles that Khamenei has at his disposal. Iran would need to develop ICBMs in order to put the US in range – something that could take an estimated three years, according to multiple experts.

That is also a different set of skills and processes beyond what Iran would need to fire a potential short- or medium-range nuclear weapon.

Dating back to negotiations in 2019, the offer the Iranians had made to the US was essentially, “Cut a deal with us now, before we develop an ICBM that could also hit you.”

True, the US is worried about the 90% uranium enrichment red line as is Israel, but putting the US in range is the real red line.

If Iran had nuclear weapons but could “only” hit Israel, it would be one of several major security issues in regions far from the US borders. It would not actually physically threaten the US.

Launching a satellite at this sensitive stage of the Vienna talks, when both sides are playing chicken and trying to get the other side to blink, would be Khamenei playing a potential trump card against America’s soft underbelly.

And the threat may feel more credible given that Tehran is closer to the 90% uranium enrichment line than it has ever been.

However, based on the Biden administration’s policy to date, this gambit probably would not work.

US President Joe Biden is ready for a mutual return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal even if it upsets Israel, and even with some minor changes favoring Iran.

But politically, he has already looked weak in his handling of Afghanistan, Ukraine and other global crises and he cannot afford to cut a long-term deal with Khamenei that is worse than the nuclear deal. He would jump at cutting a “less for less” partial sanctions-lifting for a partial return to a nuclear-limits deal, but Tehran has so far been cool to this idea.

Because of that posture, another Iranian satellite launch will definitely alarm the US, but will probably not be a game-changer in negotiations.

In the meantime, the Islamic Republic will have continued to make progress on multiple tracks of skills it needs to perfect for nuclear weapons. And the jury will still be out on who will make the first concession in the nuclear standoff – or whether the situation will escalate into greater confrontation.