Iran wants US to abandon its hostility

Iran could hold direct talks with the United States if Washington demonstrates in practice that it is not hostile to the Islamic Republic, said President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday.

Pezeshkian was responding to a question at a news conference in Tehran on whether Tehran would be open to direct talks with the US to revive a 2015 nuclear deal.

Former US president Donald Trump reneged on that deal in 2018, arguing it was too generous to Tehran, and restored harsh US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to gradually violate the agreement's nuclear limits.

"We are not hostile towards the US, they should end their hostility towards us by showing their goodwill in practice," said Pezeshkian, adding, "We are brothers with the Americans as well."

After taking office in January 2021, US President Joe Biden tried to negotiate a revival of the nuclear pact under which Iran had restricted its nuclear program in return for relief from US, European Union and UN sanctions.

However, Tehran refused to directly negotiate with Washington and worked mainly through European or Arab intermediaries.

 

US Reactions on Pezeshkian's Victory

We have picked up these quotes directly from a post which was sent to us by the United States Institute of Peace. These quotes seem to have an extremely biased opinion about Iran. One fails to understand the duality of standards. Hasn’t United States godfathering Israel in the genocide in Gaza and supplying all sorts of lethal arms to Ukraine. The readers are invited to read these quotes dispassionately and form their own opinion. 

National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby on July 08, 2024 said, “We’re not in a position where we’re willing to get back to the negotiating table with Iran just because they elected a new president. They’re still supporting terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. They’re still supporting the Houthis as the Houthis attack ships in the Red Sea. They’re still attacking shipping as well. And they’re still supplying drones and drone technology and drone expertise to the Russians so that the Russians can continue to kill innocent Ukrainians like they did over the weekend.”

“We will see what Pezeshkian wants to get done, but we are not expecting any changes in Iranian behavior sadly.”

State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller on July 08 said, “So we have no expectations that this election will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or its policies. At the end of the day, it’s not the president that has the ultimate say over the future of Iran’s policy; it is the supreme leader, and of course we have seen the direction that he has chosen to take Iran in. Obviously, if the new president had the authority to make steps to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, to stop funding terrorism, to stop destabilizing activities in the region, those would be steps that we would welcome. But needless to say, we don’t have any expectations that that’s what’s likely to ensue.”

“So let’s let Pezeshkian take office first. I don’t have anything to announce today. We have always said that diplomacy is the most effective way to achieve an effective, sustainable solution with regard to Iran’s nuclear program, one of the issues with which we have great concerns, obviously, and nothing about the election has changed that. But we have also made clear that we are far from any kind of meaningful diplomatic resolution right now given Iran’s escalation across the board.”

State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel on July 01, said, "We’re not in a position to confirm or – any turnout number or speculate on what the implications of that might mean for the Iranian regime. Our viewpoint is that even the Iranian Government’s official numbers about turnout are most – like most other things as it relates to the Iranian regime, are unreliable. Our view is that these elections in Iran are not free and fair, and we have no expectation that these elections and whatever the outcome might be will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or lead the Iranian regime to offer more respect for human rights and more dignity for its citizens."

Deputy Special Envoy for Iran Abram Paley on June 26 said, “As the Iranian regime prepares for its presidential elections, the US unfortunately has no expectation of free and fair elections or fundamental change in Iran’s direction. Of course, the candidates have been hand-picked by the Guardian Council, but we also know the Iranian people lack access to even the most basic freedoms; necessary features of any democracy. In the face of the authoritarian regime’s long history of harassing and intimidating journalists, suppressing election coverage, and denying freedom of peaceful of assembly, we support the Iranian people. The United States will continue to defend human rights in Iran, shine a light on the regime’s repression, and support a free and democratic future.”

State Department spokesperson on June 30 said, "The elections in Iran are not free and fair.”

"Unfortunately, we have no expectation that these elections, whatever the outcome, will lead to fundamental change in Iran’s direction or more respect by the Iranian regime for the human rights of Iran’s citizens.”

 

Iran missile production, is it a hoax call?

According to Reuters, satellite imagery shows major expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities that two American researchers assessed are for boosting missile production.

Reuters reports, the enlargement of the sites follows an October 2022 deal in which Iran agreed to provide missiles to Russia, which has been seeking them for its war against Ukraine. Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, both members of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance against Israel.

Images taken by commercial satellite firm Planet Labs of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April show more than 30 new buildings at the two sites, both of which are located near Tehran.

According to Reuters, these images show many of the structures are surrounded by large dirt berms. Such earthworks are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating highly combustible materials in nearby structures, said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

The expansions began at Khojir in August last year and at Modarres in October, Lewis said, based on images of the sites.

Iran's arsenal is already the largest in the Middle East, estimated at more than 3,000 missiles, including models designed to carry conventional and nuclear warheads, experts say.

Reuters claims that Modarres and Khojir sites are being expanded to boost production of conventional ballistic missiles.

Reuters claims that some of the new buildings would also allow a doubling of drone manufacturing. Drones and missile components would be sold to Russia, drones would be provided to the Houthis and missiles to Hezbollah.

Iran's mission to the United Nations did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the expansion of the complexes. Tehran has previously denied providing drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis.

Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said a boost in Iran's weapons manufacturing would not have any impact in Yemen because the Houthis develop and manufacture aircraft independent of Iran.

Lewis analyzed the Planet Labs imagery with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think-tank, as part of a Middlebury project that monitors Iranian missile infrastructure.

The two US researchers said in separate interviews that it was not clear from the photos what kinds of missiles would be produced at the new facilities, which still appeared to be under construction.

Any increase in Tehran's missile or drone production would be concerning to the United States, which has said that Iranian drones help sustain Russia's assault on Ukrainian cities, and to Israel as it fends off attacks from Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah.

 

Reuters in February reported that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran denied providing the weapons. Washington said it could not confirm the transfers but it assumed Tehran intended to provide missiles to Moscow.

On November 12, 2011, a massive explosion destroyed a large swath of Shadid Modarres associated with solid fuel missiles, killing 17 IRGC officers. They included Gen. Hassan Moqaddam, regarded by Iran as the "architect" of its ballistic missile program.

Construction at Shahid Modarres, which began again after the 2011 explosion, accelerated last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iran to hold presidential run-off on July 5

According to Reuters, a moderate lawmaker will face Iran supreme leader's protégé in a run-off presidential election on July 05, 2024 after the country's interior ministry said on Saturday that no candidate secured enough votes in the first round of voting.

Friday's vote to replace Ebrahim Raisi after his death in a helicopter crash came down to a tight race between a low-profile lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in a field of four candidates, and former Revolutionary Guards member Saeed Jalili.

The interior ministry said neither secured the 50% plus one vote of over 25 million ballots cast required to win outright, with Pezeshkian leading with over 10 million votes ahead of Jalili with over 9.4 million votes.

Power in Iran ultimately lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so the result will not herald any major policy shift on Iran's nuclear program or its support for militia groups across the Middle East.

But the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran's policy.

The clerical establishment hoped for a high turnout as it faces a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedom. However, turnout in Friday's vote hit a historic low of about 40%, based on interior ministry count released on Saturday.

The election comes at a time of escalating regional tension due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear program.

With Iran's supreme leader now 85, it is likely that the next president will be closely involved in the process of choosing a successor to Khamenei, who seeks a fiercely loyal president who can ensure a smooth eventual succession to his own position, insiders and analysts say.

Anti-Western views of Jalili, Iran's former uncompromising nuclear negotiator, offer a contrast to those of Pezeshkian. Analysts said Jalili's win would signal the possibility of an even more antagonistic turn in the Islamic Republic's foreign and domestic policy.

But a victory for mild-mannered lawmaker Pezeshkian might help ease tensions with the West, improve chances of economic reform, social liberalization and political pluralism.

Pezeshkian, faithful to Iran's theocratic rule, is backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years.

"We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behaviour toward women," Pezeshkian said after casting his vote.

He was referring to the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 while in morality police custody for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.

The unrest sparked by Amini's death spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran's clerical rulers in years.

Sanctions on Iran are because of Southern Pars gas field, not its nuclear program

I started writing these blogs in June 2012. Over the years my focus remained on Iranian nuclear program, which is often termed the main cause of sanctions. However, when I posted my last blog on Leviathan gas field, offshore gas project of Israel, it dawned that the real cause of sanctions on Iran is its Southern Pars gas field, not the nuclear program. I quickly accessed Wikipedia and managed to put together some information.  

Pars field comprising of Southern Pars and North Dome fields is a natural-gas condensate field located in the Persian Gulf. It is by far the world's largest natural gas field, with ownership of the field shared between Iran and Qatar.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the field holds an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet (51 trillion cubic metres) of in-situ natural gas and some 50 billion barrels (7.9 billion cubic metres) of natural gas condensates.

On the list of natural gas fields it has almost as much recoverable reserves as all the other fields combined. It has significant geostrategic influence.

This gas field covers an area of 9,700 square kilometres (3,700 sq miles), of which 3,700 square kilometres (1,400 sq mile) (South Pars) is in Iranian territorial waters and 6,000 square kilometres (2,300 sq mile) (North Dome) is in Qatari territorial waters.

The field is 3,000 metres (9,800 feet) below the seabed at a water depth of 65 metres (213 feet), and consists of two independent gas-bearing formations: Kangan (Triassic) and Upper Dalan (Permian). Each formation is divided into two different reservoir layers, separated by impermeable barriers. The field consists of four independent reservoir layers K1, K2, K3, and K4.

According to International Energy Agency (IEA), the combined structure is the world's largest gas field.

In-place volumes are estimated to be around 1,800 trillion cubic feet (51 trillion cubic metres) gas in place and some 50 billion barrels (7.9 billion cubic metres) of natural gas condensate in place. With in place volumes equivalent to 360 billion barrels (57 billion cubic metres) of oil (310 billion boe of gas and 50 billion boe of natural gas condensate) the field is the world's biggest conventional hydrocarbon accumulation.

The field recoverable gas reserve is equivalent to some 215 billion barrels (34.2 billion cubic metres) of oil and it also holds about 16 billion barrels (2.5 billion cubic metres) of recoverable condensate corresponding of about 230 billion barrels (37 billion cubic metres) of oil equivalent recoverable hydrocarbons.

The gas recovery factor of the field is about 70%, corresponding of about 1,260 trillion cubic feet (36×1012 m3) of total recoverable gas reserves which stands for about 19% of world recoverable gas reserves.

The estimates for the Iranian section are 500 trillion cubic feet (14×1012 m3) of natural gas in place and around 360 trillion cubic feet (10×1012 m3) of recoverable gas which stands for 36% of Iran's total proven gas reserves and 5.6% of the world's proven gas reserves.

The estimates for the Qatari section are 900 trillion cubic feet (25×1012 m3) of recoverable gas which stands for almost 99% of Qatar's total proven gas reserves and 14% of the world's proven gas reserves.

Since the field is a common field and the reservoir is highly homogenous, the ultimate recoverable reserves of each country may vary from this technical assessment which only considers the static data and does not include rate of gas migration. Therefore, it is better to say that the ultimate recoverable reserves of each country would be a factor of cumulative gas production by each of them.

The Iranian section also holds 18 billion barrels (2.9 billion cubic metres) of condensate in place of which some 9 billion barrels (1.4 billion cubic metres) are believed to be recoverable, while Qatari section believed to contains some 30 billion barrels (4.8×109 m3) of condensate in place and at least some 10 billion barrels (1.6 billion cubic metres) of recoverable condensate.

The South Pars Field was discovered in 1990 by National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). The Pars Oil and Gas Company, a subsidiary of NIOC, has jurisdiction over all South Pars-related projects. Field development has been delayed by various problems - technical (i.e., high levels of mercaptans and foul-smelling sulfur compounds), contractual issues and, recently, politics.

Gas production started from the field by commissioning phase 2 in December 2002 to produce 1 billion cubic feet per day (28 million cubic metres per day) of wet gas. Gas is sent to shore via pipeline, and processed at Assaluyeh.

As of December 2010, South pars gas field's production capacity stands at 75 million cubic metres (2.6 billion cubic feet) of natural gas per day. Gas production at South Pars rose by nearly 30% between March 2009 and March 2010. The field's reserves are estimated at 14 trillion cubic metres (490 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas and 18 billion barrels (2.9 billion cubic metres) of natural gas condensates.

NIOC is planning to develop the field in 24 to 30 phases, capable of producing about 25 billion cubic feet (710 million cubic metres) to 30 billion cubic feet (850 million cubic metres) of natural gas per day. Each standard phase is defined for daily production of 1 billion cubic feet (28 million cubic metres) of natural gas, 40,000 barrels (6,400 m3) of condensate, 1500 tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 200 tons of sulfur.

However some phases have some different production plans. Each of the phases is estimated to have an average capital spend of around US$1.5 billion, and most will be led by foreign oil firms working in partnership with local companies.

 

 

Israeli military readying Plan B to counter Iran

After a five-month pause in talks between the United States and Iran is set to resume on Monday, with the other parties to the nuclear deal mediating in hope of reestablishing an agreement to curb the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions.

The defense establishment does not see a war breaking out with Iran or its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, but the IDF has been keeping an eye on the North and on the South. It held large-scale exercises in the North in October and November, and there are plans to hold 50% more drills next year than in 2020, and 30% more than in 2021.

The increased exercises set for 2022 follows years of stagnation, and will be the largest training operation in five years, especially for reserve forces. Following the signing of the Abraham Accords, the IDF has also begun conducting drills with Gulf Arab states.

In a subtle message to Iran, Israel took part in a multilateral maritime security drill in the Red Sea with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and US Naval Forces Central Command’s (NAVCENT).

The drill in early November was the first of its kind, and showed what kind of naval coalition Israel might join should there be military action against Iran.

“It is exciting to see US forces training with regional partners to enhance our collective maritime security capabilities,” V-Adm. Brad Cooper, Commander of NAVCENT, US 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces said. “Maritime collaboration helps safeguard freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade, which are essential to regional security and stability.”

There are also hints of an aerial coalition that could come together. Israeli jets recently escorted a B-1B strategic heavy bomber and KC-10 re-fuelers on their way to the Gulf. Jets from Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia also escorted those planes while flying through their respective airspace.

Israel’s Blue Flag air drills, which become more popular as the years go on, also provide a clue as to what other countries could fly alongside Israel when push comes to shove.

This year’s Blue Flag saw aircraft from Germany (six Eurofighters), Italy (five F-35 jets and five G550 planes), Britain (six Eurofighters), France (four Raphale jets), India (five Mirage jets), Greece (four F-16 jets), and the US (six F-16 CJ jets) take part.

During the drill, forces practiced aerial battle as well as surface-to-air battle scenarios, advanced surface-to-air missiles combat outlines in enemy territory, and more.

The exercise focused on “broadening and enhancing the operational capabilities of the participating forces,” with a focus on air-to-air and air-to-ground attacks, as well as evading ground-based air defense systems “and various operational scenarios in enemy territory,” the army said at the time of the drill.

While Israel has never joined a regional military coalition, Marom Division commander Col. Aviran Lerer told The Jerusalem Post that there could be a time that Jerusalem might be part of such a partnership.

Lerer, who spoke to The Post after a two-week drill with 500 troops from NAVCENT’s 51/5th Marine Expeditionary Brigade, said that the IDF has to be ready to fight with other troops.

The drill, he said, was to strengthen ties with Israel’s main ally and the Marines who “are a significant force in the US military with whom we have a lot of shared interests. The United States always fights as a coalition, and it could be that will be part of a future coalition. We, as an army, have to do everything we can to be ready for a future conflict; we see the Americans as a strategic ally, and there could be a time when we will work and fight together.”

While Israel’s diplomats are working around the clock to influence the United States, the UK and France on the Iran talks, Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that the “best-case scenario” would be a deal that not only focuses on uranium enrichment but also on Tehran’s ballistic missile program and its regional hostility.

“Concerning Iran, we must influence our partners and have ongoing discussion with them,” Gantz said. “Our other obligation is to build a military force, which is an important issue by itself. I ordered the military to improve its force build-up, in parallel to our discussions with our strategic partners.”

What next for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani?

Incumbent President Hassan Rouhani, who sought re-election, won a landslide victory. He got 23.549 million votes out of a total of more than 41 million votes and his arch-rival Ebrahim Raisi got 15.786 million votes.

Iranians seeking greater freedoms have voted for President Hassan Rouhani, to secure second term. However, he is likely to face resistance by the hardliner.

There is perception that Rouhani will face more pressure in his second term as it is feared that the hardliners will create more problems for him.

Rouhani has decisively defeated Khamenei's protégé, hard-line judge Ebrahim Raisi, but the supreme leader still makes the ultimate decisions on policy, and his conservative faction still controls the judiciary and security forces.

They (hardliners) may re-assert their dominance at home by more confrontation abroad, by extending Iran's interventions in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. They also fear more confrontational policy with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

However, certain quarters believe that since economy is the top priority of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Rouhani's liberal economic policies are likely to get his endorsement, like the cautious support he got for the nuclear deal.

Rouhani, landslide victory in 2013 was on a promise to reduce Iran's diplomatic isolation, spent most of his time on the nuclear agreement with six powers that resulted in a lifting of most sanctions in return for curbs on Tehran's nuclear program.

Rouhani will have to find an accommodation with them, or end up like his reformist predecessor Mohammad Khatami, who whetted Iranians' appetite for change but failed to deliver it during two terms from 1997-2005.

The silver lining is that Rouhani has built his reputation as an establishment figure who could deliver some of the aims sought by reformists without alienating conservatives.

The added advantage is, Rouhani is a regime insider. He is loyal to the establishment. He is not a reformist but a bridge between hardliners and reformists.