Trump wants EU to buy more US oil and gas or face tariffs

According to Reuters, US President-elect Donald Trump said on Friday that the European Union (EU) may face tariffs if the bloc does not cut its growing deficit with the United States by making large oil and gas trades with the world's largest economy.

The EU is already buying the lion's share of US oil and gas exports, according to US government data, and no additional volumes are currently available unless the United States increases output or volumes are re-routed frm Asia - another big consumer of US energy.

"I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

"Otherwise, it is tariffs all the way!!!," he added.

The European Commission said it was ready to discuss with the president-elect how to strengthen an already strong relationship, including in the energy sector.

"The EU is committed to phasing out energy imports from Russia and diversifying our sources of supply," a spokesperson said.

The United States already supplied 47% of the European Union's LNG imports and 17% of its oil imports in the first quarter of 2024, according to data from EU statistics office Eurostat.

Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on most if not all imports, and said Europe would pay a heavy price for having run a large trade surplus with the US for decades.

Trump has repeatedly highlighted the US trade deficit for goods, but not trade as a whole.

The US had a goods trade deficit with the EU of 155.8 billion euros (US$161.9 billion) last year. However, in services it had a surplus of 104 billion euros, Eurostat data shows.

Trump, who takes office on January 20, 2025 has already pledged hefty tariffs on three of the United States' largest trading partners - Canada, Mexico and China.

Most European oil refiners and gas firms are private and the governments have no say on where the purchases are coming from unless authorities impose sanctions or tariffs. The owners usually buy their resources based on price and efficiencies.

The EU has steeply increased purchases of US oil and gas following the block's decision to impose sanctions and cut reliance on Russian energy after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The United States has grown to become the largest oil producer in recent years with output of over 20 million barrels per day of oil liquids or a fifth of global demand.

US crude exports to Europe stand at over two million bpd representing over a half of US total exports with the rest going to Asia. The Netherlands, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, and Sweden are the biggest importers, according to the US government data.

The United States is also the world's biggest gas producer and consumer with output of over 103 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd).

The US government projects that US exports of liquefied gas (LNG) will average 12 bcfd in 2024. In 2023, Europe accounted for 66% of US LNG exports, with the Britain, France, Spain and Germany being the main destinations.

EU exports are dominated by Germany with key goods being cars, machinery and chemicals.

 

How would WTO brace Donald Trump?

The World Trade Organization (WTO) held the last of its 2024 meetings this week, and for anyone rooting for the institution to conclude long-discussed agreements just ahead of its 30th anniversary, the results were a little hard to watch. Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body.

Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body:

·        Dispute settlement reform was unresolved and there was a pledge to continue talking next year

·        On the second fisheries agreement, India and Indonesia were granted more time to air their concerns. “Fish 2” was at the decision stage but was demoted to a “discussion” item

·        India, South Africa and Turkey blocked a deal known as Investment Facilitation for Development. That left it short of the needed consensus, even though 126 members backed its incorporation into WTO bylaws

·        Progress was made on two administrative issues: picking dates for the next ministerial conference (March 26-29, 2026, in Cameroon) and approval of WTO Secretariat pension reforms

Newly re-appointed Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala tried to maintain a positive outlook, saying she hopes members return in the new year with a “spirit of compromise, ready to do deals.”

For an organization that needs everyone to agree, that’s going to be a challenge when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office January 20, 2025. His threatened tariffs and “America First” trade agenda run counter to the mission of the Geneva based WTO.

Trump promised 60% duties on Chinese imports and at least 10% for the rest of the world. In November, he threatened to impose further 10% tariffs on Beijing and 25% on Mexico and Canada if they fail to stop the flow of fentanyl and undocumented migrants to the US.

All of that violates the commitments that more than 160 nations make to join the WTO, said Bill Reinsch, a Commerce Department official during the Clinton administration and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Trump is known to dislike multilateral institutions, having withdrawn the US from a trade deal for the Indo-Pacific, the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization in his first term.

He could quit the WTO, too. Or he could stay in it, heap more scorn on the rules-based international order and ignore other countries complaining about Washington’s protectionism.

In Trump’s first term, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer watched the WTO’s appellate body grind to a standstill by preventing the appointment of new judges as terms expired, leaving it short of the number needed to function.

This week Biden administration delegates blocked a move by 130 WTO member countries that called for a restart of the process to fill vacancies on the appellate body — the 82nd time that that proposal failed.

The outlook for the WTO to free itself of paralysis under the incoming Trump administration isn’t favorable. 

Jamieson Greer, Trump’s nominee for USTR, was a close adviser to Lighthizer. His views on WTO relevancy are unclear, but he did say in testimony in May that “efforts to hold China accountable under WTO dispute mechanisms were largely unfruitful.”

The WTO also irked some Trump allies by accelerating the process this year of approving Okonjo-Iweala for another four-year term at its helm.

That was “almost certainly designed to prevent the incoming Trump administration from having a say in the matter,” said Dennis Shea, Trump’s ambassador to the WTO in his first term.

“The WTO already has diminished reputation in the United States,” he said. “This unprecedented action only diminishes it further.”

According to a Geneva-based trade source, Trump’s name wasn’t mentioned during this week’s General Council session.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

Trump tariffs could impact US tanker trades

US President-elect, Donald Trump, has threatened to slap 25% tariffs on neighbours, Canada and Mexico, until such time as the flow of drugs and migrants stops. Since Canada to the north and Mexico to the south both supply large volumes of crude oil to US markets, there are far-reaching implications for the North American energy market.

Analysis by London shipbroker, Gibson, notes that Canada’s exports to the US of more than four million barrels of heavy crude a day move mostly through pipelines and would therefore be difficult to redirect.

About three quarters of the Canadian crude goes to the midcontinent region of the US, Gibson said, where refineries are geared up for these heavy grades. There is no ready alternative source of crude oil and refiners would have few options but to pay the tariff and pass the cost on to consumers, or cut refinery runs.

If Trump were to proceed with the tariffs, Canadian oil producers would have few options for other markets, Gibson said.

The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, opened in May, has doubled Canadian seaborne exports but spare capacity is limited.

About 175,000 barrels a day of TMX crude that currently goes to the US west coast could be redirected to Asia but these barrels would have to be replaced with supplies from Latin America or the Middle East, driving up ton-mile demand.

For Mexico, the situation is less complex, Gibson said. All of that country’s exports move by sea and European and Asian refiners could take up more Mexican oil if US demand fell.

This would boost ton-mile demand and could generate more business for larger tankers on long hauls. However, Gibson warned that vessels currently ballasting from east of Suez Canal to the US Gulf might well ship these cargoes, lessening the impact.

The shipbroker concludes that it is difficult to see the tariffs being enacted in their present form because they would raise costs for US consumers.

The broker notes that the President-elect has used tariffs as a negotiating ploy in the past.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dined with Trump at his Mar a Lago estate on Friday evening. The two men were said to have had a productive meeting and an ‘excellent conversation’.

Courtesy: Seatrade Maritimes News

Karoline Leavitt to be youngest ever White House press secretary

US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that Karoline Leavitt, his campaign press secretary, will serve as his White House press secretary, making her the youngest person ever to hold the position. Ronald Ziegler, who was 29 when he became press secretary during Richard Nixon’s administration in 1969.

“Karoline Leavitt did a phenomenal job as the National Press Secretary on my Historic Campaign, and I am pleased to announce she will serve as White House Press Secretary,” Trump said in a statement.

“Karoline is smart, tough, and has proven to be a highly effective communicator. I have the utmost confidence she will excel at the podium and help deliver our message to the American people as we Make America Great Again.”

In response, Leavitt posted on X (formerly Twitter): “Thank you, President Trump, for believing in me. I am humbled and honored. Let’s MAGA.”

As press secretary, Leavitt will become the public face of the administration, a role historically involving daily press briefings.

However, Trump disrupted these norms during his first term, often preferring to communicate directly with the public through rallies, social media posts, and personal briefings.

When asked in August whether regular press briefings would be held in his new administration, Trump stated, “I will give you total access, and you’ll have a lot of press briefings and you’ll have, uh, from me.”

He added, “Probably they’ll do something. If it’s not daily, it’s going to be a lot. You’ll have more than you want.”

Leavitt, a New Hampshire native, is known for her strong defense of Trump and her quick-witted responses in television interviews. Before joining his 2024 campaign, she worked as a spokesperson for MAGA Inc., the super PAC supporting Trump.

In 2022, she ran for Congress in New Hampshire, winning a crowded Republican primary before losing to incumbent Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas.

Leavitt also served in the White House press office during Trump’s first term and later worked as communications director for Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, whom Trump has nominated as US ambassador to the United Nations.

Trump’s previous press secretaries, including Sean Spicer, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Stephanie Grisham, each faced varying levels of public scrutiny, with Grisham notably never holding a briefing. Kayleigh McEnany, who succeeded Grisham, frequently took a combative stance with the media during her appearances.

 

Trump Victory: Impact on Iran-Russia relations

Iranian political experts have quickly projected that a Trump victory in the presidential elections could lead to renewed US-Russia relations due to Trump and Putin's reportedly friendly ties. Some in Iran worry that this shift might undermine the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia, which has been strengthened over the past three years.

However, a closer look at Russian experts' views presents a more balanced and realistic perspective. These analysts believe that the US-Russia relationship is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels, given the profound trust issues that have persisted since the Ukraine crisis.

Russian-Iranian partnership, which has gained unprecedented momentum, is unlikely to be sacrificed for potential rapprochement with the United States.

Examining the opinions of notable Russian experts can shed light on Moscow's likely short-term approach to US relations, especially regarding the Ukraine conflict.

In initial responses, some speculate that Trump's return might lead Russia to slightly slow its Eurasian integration efforts, potentially making space for renewed discussions with the US, especially on the Ukraine crisis.

Yet, Alexander Dugin, a prominent proponent of Eurasianism in Russia, expresses a different view. He argues that while Trump’s administration may deprioritize the Ukraine crisis, it will likely focus on domestic US issues and its trade war with China.

Dugin, who frames Russia's actions in Ukraine as part of a destiny-driven mission to “de-Nazify Kyiv,” is adamant that this campaign should continue westward in Ukraine. In his view, even if Trump were to ask Putin to halt military operations in Ukraine, such a request would be improbable to affect Russia's plans.

Similarly, Andrey Bezrukov, an international relations expert and professor at Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs University, believes that resolving the Ukraine issue depends more on Russia's military progress than the US elections.

He emphasizes Trump’s unpredictability, citing Iran's experience with US policy shifts, and warns of the risks if future Democratic administrations disregard any agreements.

Bezrukov adds that Trump's administration would likely focus primarily on countering China's global influence, rather than confronting Russia directly in Ukraine.

However, this does not necessarily mean the end of US support for Ukraine; the US might shift more of this responsibility to Europe, despite Trump's potential disagreements with European leaders.

Andrey Sushentsov, director of the Valdai Discussion Club’s programs and an expert on international relations, says US institutions constrained Trump’s policy intentions on Ukraine during his presidency from 2017-2021.

During his campaign, Trump asserted he could resolve the Ukraine crisis swiftly, but Sushentsov views such claims skeptically.

He argues that Ukraine is a tool for the US to manage Russia’s influence, rally European allies, and compel them to bear the economic and social costs of the crisis unless the US decides that Ukraine is no longer an effective lever.

In reviewing these insights from prominent Russian analysts and commentaries in Russian media, it is apparent that most Russian experts are skeptical about any rapid impact of a Trump-Putin rapport on resolving the Ukraine conflict.

Given the unprecedented level of Russian-Iranian relations over the past three years, it is unlikely that this alliance would be sacrificed for hypothetical negotiations between a Republican-led US and Russia.

 

Trump's Victory: Implications for Pakistan

Donald Trump’s second term as the US President is expected to have profound impact on geopolitics and global asset/ commodity prices, which would ultimately have implications for the ongoing macro recovery in Pakistan.

There is a high probability of a “clean sweep” by the Republican Party (it is likely to take control of both the US Senate and House), which will give Trump greater ability to execute his campaign pledges.

Trump’s policies – cracking down on immigration and large import tariffs on China – are expected to be inflationary for the US economy and negative for global growth. If he is able to bring a quick end to both the wars, in Ukraine and Gaza, oil prices are likely to continue falling under the weight of weakening global demand.

There are various caveats to these expectations:

Global experts point to the strength of US institutions in checking/ taming some of the draconian policies Trump has pledged. Second, China has begun rolling out huge stimulus measures, both fiscal and monetary, to revive its ailing economy (particularly its large property sector). This could serve as a boost to global commodity prices.

For Pakistan, the prospect of lower or stable oil/ commodity prices is positive. US-China trade war improves the opportunity to attract Chinese industries into Pakistan. Certain exports out of Pakistan, including steel and textiles, may become more competitive in the US. But, it could be a challenge for Pakistan to execute CPEC Phase 2 in the face of deteriorating US-China relations.

At this stage, the event does not materially affect outlook of continued macro stability in Pakistan – continued disinflation and foreign exchange reserves buildup – and equity market re-rating,

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Inter Market Securities:

Oil prices are more likely to fall or stabilize around US$70/bbl over the medium term. Trump is likely to encourage greater shale oil production in the US, while at the same time, he would work to bring an end to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Global inflation could make a comeback as Trump promises to slap up to 60% import tariffs on China and up to 20% from elsewhere. He has also committed to deport illegal immigrants from the country – which could stoke another round of labor shortage in the United States.

US interest rates may remain elevated as the resurgent inflation could lead to a slowdown of rate cuts in the US, leading to a stronger greenback against other major currencies. This could mean that global equity flows into the emerging and frontier markets would remain weak.

Raising debt through Eurobonds could therefore become difficult for Pakistan. The USD index has appreciated 5% since September, while the US 10-year bond yield has risen to 4.5% from 3.6% by end September – both have risen in anticipation of Trump’s re-election.

Global growth could be slower and commodity prices, depressed if Trump administration impose higher import tariffs on China, then growth in China could be undermined (notwithstanding the stimulus measures the Chinese government has recently begun rolling out. This would spell an extended period of down-trending commodity prices and a global oversupply in some key commodities (steel, petrochemicals) and products (EVs).

Weak US participation in achieving global climate goals could reverse or slow down the recent trend of multilateral lenders (IMF, WB and ADB) ramping up loans to developing economies for building defense against climate change.

Possible implications for Pakistan

A decline in global commodity prices would maintain the dis-inflationary trend in Pakistan. However, a fresh wave of global inflation will be felt in Pakistan through a stronger greenback and imported inflation. At this stage, the brokerage house maintains it outlook for average inflation in Pakistan over the next 12 months to be around 9% and expect the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to cut the policy rate up to 11% by June 2025.

US-China trade war could make some exports out of Pakistan more competitive in the US, compared to imports from China. These would include HVA textiles, flat steel, tires and cement. However, if PKR-US$ remains stable while other regional currencies depreciate against the greenback, it could undermine the competitiveness of Pakistani exports.

Pakistan could see greater Chinese FDI. As Chinese industries would continue to set up facilities outside China to avoid import tariffs, some could potentially be set up in Pakistan. However, for this to happen, Pakistan would have to offer a more stable policy environment to Chinese investors, and the government may have to drop plans to renegotiate the power tariffs of CPEC power plants, in our view.   

 

Netanyahu should resign and surrender

Jill Stein has been one of the loudest and clearest voices in the race for president demanding justice for Gaza, and that begins with Benjamin Netanyahu immediately resigning as Prime Minister and surrendering to authorities. Netanyahu is a war criminal who has been charged with the following crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC);

·  Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(b)(xxv) of the Statute;

·  Willfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health contrary to article 8(2)(a)(iii), or cruel treatment as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);

·  Willful killing contrary to article 8(2)(a)(i), or Murder as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);

·  Intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as a war crime contrary to articles 8(2)(b)(i), or 8(2)(e)(i);

·  Extermination and/or murder contrary to articles 7(1)(b) and 7(1)(a), including in the context of deaths caused by starvation, as a crime against humanity;

·  Persecution as a crime against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(h);

·  Other inhumane acts as crimes against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(k).

Jill demands Americans should not support the Biden-Harris funded genocide, and they should never accept this forced alliance with a war criminal.

Jill Stein: Wildcard Entry in US Election

Jill Ellen Stein born on May 14, 1950, is an American physician, activist, politician. She is currently running for president in the 2024 United States presidential election. Her campaigns for president have focused heavily on the proposal of a Green New Deal, which includes a number of reforms intended to address climate change and income inequality, as well as civil and political rights reform.

She was the Green Party's nominee for president of the United States in the 2012 and 2016 elections and the Green-Rainbow Party's candidate for governor of Massachusetts in 2002 and 2010.

In 2012, Stein received 469,015 votes, which accounted for 0.36% of the popular vote; in 2016, she received 1.45 million votes or 1.07% of the popular vote.

Stein originally supported activist and scholar Cornel West's 2024 presidential campaign under the Green Party and became his campaign manager.

After West withdrew his bid for the Green presidential nomination in order to instead continue his run for the presidency as an independent, Stein retracted her endorsement for West and said the Green Party would find a nominee elsewhere. She also hinted at a possible bid of her own.

On November 09, 2023, Stein announced her third bid for president on X (formerly Twitter), citing her main priorities as being anti-war, paving the way for a Green New Deal, Universal Healthcare, and a "pledge to stop genocide”. 

Stein's campaign has been criticized by the Democratic Party as having the potential to erode Joe Biden's support in the general election among left-wing voters.

US Election: A race like no other in history

Immediately after US President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, a move not seen since President Lyndon Johnson stepped back at the height of the Vietnam War, a question suddenly arose. What path would Vice President Kamala Harris take to try and beat Donald Trump?

“Americans are going to have to choose between moving forward or backward, between hope and hate, between unity and division,” Biden said. “We have to decide—do we still believe in honesty, decency, respect, freedom, justice and democracy.”

The Republican nominee had been on a winning streak of late, avoiding a spotlight on his historic criminal conviction, pending trials or even repeated references to a fictional serial killer.

The media spent almost a month focused on Biden, his age and botched debate performance (Biden, at 81, is three years older than Trump).

Kamala wasted no time providing answers to the question. Her campaign is focusing on Trump’s status as a convicted felon, his various other legal entanglements, including being found liable for sexual abuse, and his starring role in blowing up abortion rights.

“I know Donald Trump’s type,” said the 59-year-old Kamala, a former US senator, state attorney general and district attorney.

Francis Wilkinson writes in Bloomberg Opinion that from here to November, the prosecutor should prosecute the predator. 

Polls showed the race tightening with Kamala’s entry, with more enthusiasm among Black and younger voters. Republicans are already trying to use immigration against her, despite Trump arguably being the main reason a bipartisan immigration reform bill was killed.

Then there’s the question of whether Americans are ready to elect the first female president.

Trump, who has a history of racist and misogynistic statements, risks alienating some of the very voters he needs if he pursues that track this time.

Many prominent Republicans however have already started racial attacks on Kamala, calling her “the DEI candidate.” In short, this is a race like no other in US history.

The next step will be for Kamala to select a running mate ahead of the Democratic National Convention.

As the new race was forming up this week, Biden addressed the nation, framing his decision to bow out as a way of uniting the country around a new generation of leaders. He also warned of what he’s said is the existential peril democracy faces in November. 

Courtesy: Bloomberg 

Netanyahu likely to face friend and foes in US

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the United States this week under pressure to end the Gaza war, from both Israelis and the US administration. How might the political turbulence in Washington shape the trip and future relations?

Netanyahu is set to meet Joe Biden – if the president has recovered from COVID-19 – and address a joint session of Congress, the only foreign leader to do so for a fourth time.

The trip offers him a platform for a reset with Washington after months of tensions over his hardline approach to the war, and an opportunity to try and convince Israelis that he hasn’t undermined relations with their most important ally.

But it is overshadowed by President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election, highlighting political uncertainties about Israel’s next partner in the White House and possibly eclipsing some of the attention on Netanyahu’s visit.

The prime minister got a lot of unwelcome attention in Israel until the moment he boarded the plane.

A drumbeat of protests demanded that he stay home and focus on a ceasefire deal with Hamas to free Israeli hostages.

“Until he has signed the deal that's on the table, I do not see how he picks up and flies across the Atlantic to address the American political chaos,” said Lee Siegel, one of the family members who has come out to demonstrate. His 65-year-old brother Keith is a captive in Gaza.

The trip is a political move, he added, unless Netanyahu stops being a hurdle and signs the ceasefire agreement.

Siegel reflected a widespread view that Netanyahu is slow-rolling the process for his own political reasons, roiling his negotiators when he recently threw new conditions into talks that seemed to be making progress.

The prime minister has been accused of bowing to pressure from two far-right cabinet ministers who’ve threatened to bring down his government if he makes concessions to Hamas.

These perceptions have added to frustrations in the White House, which announced the latest formula for talks and had been expressing optimism an agreement could be achieved.

Biden remains one of the most pro-Israel presidents to sit in the Oval Office, a self-declared Zionist who’s been lauded by Israelis for his support and empathy, cemented by his flight to Israel just days after the Hamas attacks on October 07, 2023.

But since then, he’s grown alarmed at the cost of Netanyahu’s demand for a “total victory” against Hamas in Gaza.

The administration is frustrated with the Israeli prime minister for rejecting a post-war solution that involves pursuing a Palestinian state.

It’s angry with him for resisting appeals to do more to protect Palestinian civilians and increase the flow of aid to them. It’s facing a domestic backlash over the mounting death toll in Gaza. And it’s worried that the conflict is spreading to the region.

As Joe Biden’s presidency weakened in the swirl of controversy over his abilities, analysts said there might be less room for him to keep up the pressure on the Israeli prime minister.

Biden’s decision to drop out of the race could actually have strengthened his hand, says Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister and a critic of Netanyahu.

“He is not a lame duck in regard to foreign policy, in a way he's more independent (because) he doesn't have to take into account any impact on the voters,” Barak told the BBC.

“With regard to Israel probably he feels more of a free hand to do what really needs to be done.”

Barak believes it was a mistake for Congress to invite Netanyahu to speak, saying that many Israelis blame him for policy failures that allowed the Hamas attack to happen, and three out of four want him to resign.

“The man does not represent Israel,” he said. “He lost the trust of Israelis...And it kind of sends a wrong signal to Israelis, probably a wrong signal to Netanyahu himself, when the American Congress invites him to appear as if he is saving us.”

Whatever politics he may be playing, Netanyahu insists military pressure must continue because it has significantly weakened Hamas after a series of strikes against the military leadership.

In comments before departing Israel, he suggested that would be the tone of his meeting with President Biden.

“It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the months ahead the goals that are important for both our countries,” he said, “achieving the release of all our hostages, defeating Hamas, confronting the terror axis of Iran and its proxies and ensuring that all Israel’s citizens return safely to their homes in the north and in the south.”

He’s expected to bring the same message to Congress, “seeking to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important to Israel”.

The reality is that Netanyahu’s policies have fractured that bipartisan support. The Republicans are rallying around him, but criticism from Democrats has grown.

The Democratic Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer caused a small earthquake in Washington recently when he stood up in the chambers and said Netanyahu was one of the obstacles standing in the way of lasting peace with Palestinians.

“I hope the prime minister understands the anxiety of many members in Congress and addresses them,” the former US ambassador to Israel, Thomas Nides, told the BBC at the weekend. He’d been addressing one of the many rallies demanding a hostage release.

That includes “on humanitarian issues and to articulate that this fight isn’t with the Palestinian people, it’s with Hamas."

It’s a message that Kamala Harris would repeat if she were to become the Democratic nominee. There’d be no change in US policy, a commitment to Israel’s security while pushing for an end to the Gaza conflict and a plan for the Day After embedded in a regional peace with Arab states, but there might be a difference in tone.

Kamala Harris does not share Biden’s long history with and emotional ties to Israel. She’s from a different generation and “could more closely align with the sentiments of younger elements of the Democratic party," says Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.

"That’s a stance more likely to include restrictions on weapons, on munitions from the United States for use in Gaza," he said.

Netanyahu could very well use the visit to steer the conversation from the controversy over Gaza to the threat from Iran, a topic with which he’s far more comfortable, especially after the recent escalation with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

But his main audience will be domestic, says Tal Shalev, the diplomatic correspondent at Israel’s Walla News.

He wants to revive his image as “America,” she says, the man who can best present Israel to the US, and to restore his image which was shattered by the October 07 attacks.

“When he goes to the US and speaks in front of Congress and [has] a meeting in the White House, for his electoral base, it's the old Bibi is back again,” she says, referring to the prime minister by his nickname. “This is not the failed Bibi who was responsible for the seventh of October. This is the old Bibi who goes to the Congress and gets the standing ovations.”

It also gives him an opportunity to pursue connections with former President Donald Trump at a time of great political flux in Washington.

“Netanyahu wants President Trump to win,” she says, “And he wants to make sure that he and President Trump are on good terms before the election.”

There is a widespread view that Netanyahu is playing for time, hoping for a Trump win that might ease some of the pressure he’s been facing from the Biden administration.

“There is a near-universal perception that Netanyahu is eager for a Trump victory, under the assumption that he will then be able to do whatever he wants,” writes Michael Koplow of Israel’s Policy Forum.

“No Biden pressuring him on a ceasefire or on West Bank settlements and settler violence... There are many reasons to doubt this reading of the landscape under a Trump restoration, but Netanyahu likely subscribes to it.”

The question is whether that pressure from Biden will ease as he steps away from the presidential race, or whether he will in fact use his remaining months in office to focus on achieving an end to the Gaza war.

JD Vance: Trump’s Running Mate

Former President Donald Trump on Monday chose Sen. JD Vance as his running mate despite the Ohio Republican formerly describing himself as a "Never Trump guy" and calling the presumptive GOP nominee an "idiot," an "asshole," and "America's Hitler."

Trump—who survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania campaign rally on Saturday—announced his pick on the opening day of the Republican Party's convention in Wisconsin with a post on his Truth social media platform, calling Vance "the person best suited" to be vice president.

"JD honorably served our country in the Marine Corps, graduated from Ohio State University in two years, summa cum laude, and is a Yale Law School graduate, where he was the editor of the Yale Law Journal, and president of the Yale Law Veterans Association," Trump wrote. "JD's book, Hillbilly Elegy, became a major bestseller and movie, as it championed the hardworking men and women of our country."

Vance's selection came two days after the senator took to social media to assert that President Joe Biden's rhetoric—including the assertion that Trump "is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs"—led "directly" to Trump's attempted assassination.

Should he accept his selection, Vance—who turns 40 next month—would be making a stark departure from his previous views on Trump.

"I'm a Never Trump guy," Vance said in a 2016 interview with the late Charlie Rose. "I never liked him."

"My God what an idiot," he said of Trump on social media that same year.

In another message explaining his views on the rise of Trump, Vance wrote that the Republican Party "has itself to blame."

"Trump is the fruit of the party's collective neglect" of working-class Americans, Vance argued. "I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole" like former President Richard Nixon "who wouldn't be that bad... or that he's America's Hitler."

Vance, who claims to be a champion of working people and against elites, is a former venture capitalist whose 2022 Senate campaign was backed by billionaires and who has ties to Big Pharma. He opposes reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights.

He has complained about high gas prices while raking in Big Oil campaign contributions. He says that Project 2025 —a conservative coalition's agenda for a far-right takeover of the federal government—has some "good ideas" in it.

He has fundraised for January 6 insurrectionists. He blamed the Robb Elementary School massacre in Uvalde, Texas on "fatherlessness." He wants to ban pornography.

"As Trump's running mate, Vance will make it his mission to enact Trump's Project 2025 agenda at the expense of American families," Jen O'Malley Dillion, chair of the Biden-Harris reelection campaign, said in response to Trump's pick. "This is someone who supports banning abortion nationwide while criticizing exceptions for rape and incest survivors; railed against the Affordable Care Act, including its protections for millions with preexisting conditions; and has admitted he wouldn't have certified the free and fair election in 2020."

"Billionaires and corporations are literally rooting for JD Vance: They know he and Trump will cut their taxes and send prices skyrocketing for everyone else," she added.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) responded to Vance's selection in a statement asserting that "this is the most consequential election of our lifetimes, and with Donald Trump's decision today to add JD Vance to the Republican ticket, the stakes of this election just got even higher."

"JD Vance embodies MAGA—with an out-of-touch extreme agenda and plans to help Trump force his Project 2025 agenda on the American people," the DNC continued.

"Vance has championed and enabled Trump's worst policies for years—from a national abortion ban, to whitewashing January 6, to railing against Social Security and Medicare."

"Let's be clear. A Trump-Vance ticket would undermine our democracy, our freedoms, and our future," the DNC added.

Biden's candidacy faces new perils

President Joe Biden’s imperiled reelection campaign hit new trouble Wednesday as House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi said merely “it’s up to the president to decide” if he should stay in the race, celebrity donor George Clooney said he should not run and Democratic senators and lawmakers expressed fresh fear about his ability to beat Republican Donald Trump.

Late in the evening, Vermont Sen. Peter Welch called on Biden to withdraw from the election, becoming the first Senate Democrat to do so. Welch said he is worried because “the stakes could not be higher.”

The sudden flurry of grave pronouncements despite Biden’s determined insistence he is not leaving the 2024 race put on public display just how unsettled the question remains among prominent Democrats.

On Capitol Hill, an eighth House Democrat, Rep. Pat Ryan of New York, and later a ninth, Rep. Earl Blumenauer of Oregon, publicly asked Biden to step aside.

“I want him to do whatever he decides to do,” Pelosi said Wednesday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” rather than declaring Biden should stay in. While Biden has said repeatedly that he’s made his decision, she said, “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short.”

It’s a crucial moment for the president and his party, as Democrats consider what was once unthinkable — having the incumbent Biden step aside, just weeks before the Democratic National Convention that is on track to nominate him as their candidate for reelection.

Biden is hosting world leaders in Washington for the NATO summit this week with a crowded schedule of formal meetings, sideline chats and long diplomatic dinners, all opportunities to showcase he is up for the job despite a worrisome performance last month in the first presidential debate with Trump.

His party at a crossroads, Biden faces the next tests Thursday — in public, at a scheduled news conference that many Democrats will be watching for signs of his abilities, and privately, as his top advisers meet with the Senate Democratic caucus to discuss their concerns and shore up support.

Welch said in a Washington Post opinion piece published Wednesday evening, “We cannot unsee President Biden’s disastrous debate performance.”

The first-term senator said Vermont loves Biden and he was calling on the president to withdraw from the race “with sadness.”

To be sure, Biden maintains strong support from key corners of his coalition, particularly some in the Congressional Black Caucus on Capitol Hill, whose leadership was instrumental in ushering the president to victory in 2020 and is standing by him as the country’s best choice to defeat Trump again in 2024.

“At this moment, the stakes are too high and we have to focus,” Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota told The Associated Press earlier in the week, saying Democrats are “losing ground” the longer they fight over Biden’s candidacy. “Democracy is on the line. Everything we value as Democrats, as a country, is on the line, and we have to stop being distracted.”

Pelosi has been widely watched for signals of how top Democrats are thinking about Biden’s wounded candidacy, her comments viewed as important for the party’s direction as members weigh possible alternatives in the campaign against Trump.

Because of her powerful position as the former House speaker and proximity to Biden as a trusted longtime ally of his generation, Pelosi is seen as one of the few Democratic leaders who could influence the president’s thinking.

The lack of a full statement from Pelosi backing Biden’s continued campaign is what lawmakers are likely to hear most clearly, even as she told ABC later she believes he can win.

Her remarks came as actor Clooney, who had just hosted a glitzy Hollywood fundraiser for the president last month, said in a New York Times op-ed that the Biden he saw three weeks ago wasn’t the Joe Biden of 2020. “He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”

Democrats have been reeling over whether to continue backing Biden after his poor showing in the June 27 debate and his campaign’s lackluster response to their pleas that Biden, at 81, show voters he is ready for another four-year term.

Sen. Michael Bennet, a Democrat from Colorado, spoke forcefully late Tuesday about the danger of a second Trump presidency and said it’s for the president “to consider” the options.

Stopping just short of calling for Biden to drop out, Bennet said on CNN what he told his colleagues in private — that he believes Trump “is on track to win this election — and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House.”

Bennet said, “It’s not a question about politics. It’s a moral question about the future of our country.”

By Wednesday, Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut said he was “deeply concerned” about Biden winning the election, which he called existential for the country.

“We have to reach a conclusion as soon as possible,” Blumenthal said on CNN.

Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia told reporters, “I have complete confidence that Joe Biden will do the patriotic thing for the country. And he’s going to make that decision.”

Biden and his campaign are working more intently now to shore up support, and the president met with labor leaders Wednesday, relying on the unions to help make the case that his record in office matters more than his age.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer invited Biden’s campaign to address senators’ concerns, and redoubled his backing of the president. “As I have made clear repeatedly publicly and privately, I support President Biden and remain committed to ensuring Donald Trump is defeated in November,” he said.

The president’s team is sending senior Biden advisers Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti, and Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon to meet with Democratic senators privately Thursday for a caucus lunch, according to both a Senate leadership aide and the Biden campaign.

There were some concerns, however, that it could backfire. One Democratic senator who requested anonymity to speak about the closed-door meeting said it could be a waste of time if Biden would not make the case to senators himself.

Pelosi said Biden “has been a great president” who is beloved and respected by House Democrats. The Californian said she watched as he delivered a forceful speech at the NATO summit Tuesday, and she recounted his many accomplishments.

While foreign leaders are in Washington this week and Biden is on the world stage hosting the event at a critical time in foreign affairs, Pelosi encouraged Democrats to “let’s just hold off” with any announcements about his campaign.

“Whatever you’re thinking, either tell somebody privately but you don’t have to put that out on the table until we see,” she said, how it goes “this week.”

 Courtesy: The Associated Press

Speculation about Trump’s running mate

Former President Donald Trump told reporters Saturday he’s made up his mind about who will be his running mate in November, but he has yet to tell anyone who it is.

Trump told NBC News ahead of a rally in Philadelphia that he’s settled on a vice presidential choice.

“In my mind, yeah,” Trump said when asked if he’s decided.

Asked if his pick knows it’s them, Trump responded, “No, nobody knows.”

The selection process for Trump’s running mate has ramped up in recent weeks as several candidates received vetting materials from the campaign. Trump has said he may announce his choice at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next month.

Sources familiar with the process told The Hill the front-runners for the position are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Sen. J.D. Vance and Sen. Marco Rubio.

Others who received vetting materials and are under consideration include Sen. Tim Scott, Sen. Tom Cotton, Rep. Elise Stefanik, Rep. Byron Donalds  and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson.

Trump has praised each of those individuals at various times, though he has downplayed the impact his selection might have on the end result in November.

“It’s never really had that much of an effect on an election,” Trump told Fox News earlier this year.

 

Trump not considering Haley running mate

Donald Trump said on Saturday that former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley was not being considered to be his running mate in the November 2024 election.

"Nikki Haley is not under consideration for the Vice President slot, but I wish her well!" Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.

It was reported that Trump could pick Haley if he were convinced she could help him win the presidency, avoid a potential prison sentence and cover tens of millions in legal bills if he loses.

Haley, the former South Carolina governor and a former US ambassador to the United Nations, ended her long-shot challenge to Republican presidential frontrunner Trump in March this year.

Comment was not immediately available from Haley. While she has acknowledged that Trump, who repeatedly belittled her candidacy, would be the Republican nominee, Haley has not endorsed him.

There is already a long list of potential candidates for the vice president position that includes North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, U.S. Senators Marco Rubio, Tim Scott and J.D. Vance, and US Representative Elise Stefanik.

Burgum and Scott competed against Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination before dropping out.

Noem has been embroiled in controversy after revealing in a memoir that she once shot a 14-month-old dog for being disobedient.

Trump does not seem in hurry to pick a running mate. He will not be formally nominated until the Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July.

He will face President Joe Biden, a Democrat, in the November 05 general election.

 

 

Dilemma of Muslim Americans: Biden or Trump

Muslim American leaders from six states on Saturday vowed to mobilize their communities against President Joe Biden's reelection over his support of Israel's war in Gaza, but they have yet to settle on an alternative 2024 candidate.

The states are among a handful that allowed Biden to win the 2020 election. Opposition from their sizeable Muslim and Arab American communities could complicate the president's path to Electoral College victory next year.

"We don't have two options. We have many options," Jaylani Hussein, director of Minnesota's Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) chapter, said at a press conference in Dearborn, Michigan, when asked about Biden alternatives.

"We're not supporting (former President Donald) Trump," he said, adding that the Muslim community would decide how to interview other candidates.

Hussein has said he was expressing his personal views, not those of CAIR.

Abandon Biden campaign began when Minnesota Muslim Americans demanded Biden call for a ceasefire by October 31, and has spread to Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida.

The US and Israeli officials have rebuffed pressure for a permanent halt in fighting, with US Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday echoing Biden saying Israel has a right to defend itself.

Muslim Americans said they did not expect Trump to treat their community any better if reelected but saw denying Biden votes their only means to shape US policy.

It remains to be seen whether Muslim voters would turn against Biden en masse, but small shifts in support could make a difference in states Biden won by narrow margins in 2020.

A recent poll showed Biden's support among Arab Americans has plunged from a comfortable majority in 2020 to 17%.

That could be decisive in a state like Michigan where Biden won by 2.8 percentage points and Arab Americans account for 5 percent of the vote, according to the Arab American Institute.

There are around 25,000 Muslim voters in Wisconsin, a state where Biden won by about 20,000 votes, said Tarek Amin, a doctor representing the state's Muslim community.

"We will change the vote, we will swing it," said Amin.

In Arizona, where Biden won by around 10,500 votes, there are over 25,000 Muslim voters according to the US Immigration Policy Center at the University of California San Diego, said Phoenix pharmacist Hazim Nasaredden.

"We will not stand with a man who has tainted a blue wave with red drops of blood," said Nasaredden.

 

Milley rejects Trump claim on Iran attack

Mark Milley denies former President Trump's allegations that he recommended attacking Iran. Milley, in an interview with CNN's Fareed Zakaria, flat-out rejected Trump's claim on Iran.

"I can assure you that not one time have I ever recommended to attack Iran," Milley said. The nation's highest-ranking military officer was referring to comments Trump made in a 2021 audio tape at his Bedminster Club.

In the audio, Trump said he had a classified document proving his side of the story — that Milley told him to attack Iran during his administration.

He was apparently trying to refute a New Yorker article detailing how Milley moved to prevent Trump from attacking Iran in the final days of his administration.

That audio is a major part of a federal special counsel investigation, which charged the former president earlier this year with more than 30 counts related to illegally retaining classified documents.

The Milley-Trump feud has a long history.

Trump tapped the general to be the Joint Chiefs chairman in 2018. But they diverged on multiple issues, including the 2020 racial justice protests when Trump wanted to use the military to quell the rioting.

Trump’s former chief of staff, Mark Meadows, has backed his former boss in the Iran case, claiming Milley recommended an attack on Iran more than once.

In the CNN interview, Milley said he can speak with certainty that this chairman never recommended a wholesale attack on Iran.

"I can assure you I know what I’ve done and it’s not to recommend an attack on Iran," he said.

 

 

US adamant at containing Iran oil sales

The United States is not happy with the upward trend in Iran's oil exports in recent months and intends to take steps to dissuade and put pressure on countries buying oil from Islamic republic, the US state department's special Iran envoy Rob Malley said.

Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Malley said the US extra-territorial sanctions that have been in place on Iran and its oil sales since former US President Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 are still very much in place and have not been "loosened or lessened".

He acknowledged the rise in Iran's oil sales since late last year, saying that Washington is monitoring the situation closely, and taking steps to clamp down on the rising flows — particularly when it comes to China. The country has been the biggest destination for Iranian crude by some distance since the sanctions came into force.

"We keep trying…to take the steps we need to stop the export of Iranian oil and deter countries from buying it," Malley said. But when "you focus on China, that's right. It has been the main destination of elicit exports by Iran."

Oil analytics firm Vortexa pegs Iran's overall crude and condensate exports at 1.28 million b/d for the fourth quarter of 2022, up by 56% compared with 818,200 b/d in the third quarter, and up by 51% on 844,700 b/d in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Argus' tracking puts Iran's crude and condensate exports at 1.11 million b/d on average in the fourth quarter, up by 43% from 776,000 b/d in the third quarter, and by 58% from 704,500 b/d in the corresponding quarter in 2021.

The increase in Iranian shipments coincided with a rally in Chinese demand for oil with refinery runs hitting an 18-month high in November 2022, and remaining high in December 2022. Chinese imports from Iran via Malaysia rose to a record high 1.2 million b/d in November, as independent refiners in Shandong province raced to use up their 2022 import quotas, according to Argus data.

Malley said the US has been in contact with the Chinese authorities on the issue and will continue to take steps to sanction all individuals and entities that are found to be involved in the import of Iranian oil. "The conversations we've had with the Chinese, which go back several months, will be intensified," he said.

The US Treasury Department most recently targeted 13 companies in November registered in China, Hong Kong, the Marshall Islands and the UAE over alleged facilitation of oil trader and contravention of US sanctions.

Malley admitted that the US' sanctions on Iran has been far from "perfect" so far but said the US will "do as much as we can" and "everything in our power to make sure that our sanctions are enforced.

 

Trump pushes for Russia-Ukraine talks

Former President, Donald Trump has emerged as the most prominent advocate in the United States of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to broker a cease-fire as hostilities between the two sides ratcheted up over the weekend.

The former president’s public pushes for some kind of truce cuts against the public views of many Republicans, who have backed support for Ukraine in the war, and reflect some of the schisms within the party between Trump and his staunchest defenders and other prominent conservatives.

Trump has used his social media platform, Truth Social, and recent public appearances to broadly criticize the Biden administration’s handling of the war. Trump has not offered many specifics on how he would approach the situation differently, other than to declare Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have invaded if Trump were still in office.

While Biden administration has been adamant that it will not push for negotiations that Ukraine does not support, Trump has been vocal that the two sides should broker a cease-fire, even suggesting at one point that he could be involved in the talks.

“With potentially hundreds of thousands of people dying, we must demand the immediate negotiation of the peaceful end to the war in Ukraine, or we will end up in World War III and there will be nothing left of our planet all because stupid people didn’t have a clue,” Trump told supporters Saturday at a rally in Arizona. “They really don’t understand … what they’re dealing with.

Those comments came days after Trump claimed during a speech in Miami that his relationship with Putin would have prevented the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February.

“You would never in a million years — they wouldn’t be there. So sad,” Trump said at an event organized by the America First Policy Institute. “When I see all these people being killed, it’s got to stop. They’ve got to negotiate a deal. It’s got to stop.”

 “Be strategic, be smart (brilliant!), get a negotiated deal done NOW,” Trump wrote. “Both sides need and want it. The entire World is at stake. I will head up group???”

While it is easy to dismiss Trump’s remarks, he remains a favorite for the GOP presidential nomination, a contest expected to intensify after the midterms. If he doubles down on some of his positions, it could have unpredictable consequences on the politics of arming and aiding Ukraine next year.

One GOP strategist said Trump’s views won’t be a major factor in the midterms for Republicans with domestic issues dominating the campaign. But if Republicans retake majorities in both chambers of Congress, Trump could turn up pressure on lawmakers to adopt some of his rhetoric.

For now, experts believe the former president’s views are not widely shared given public support for Ukraine remains high, and the US and its allies have been unwilling to budge on ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia as part of any negotiation.

“What I can tell you is that Mr. Putin started this war and Mr. Putin could end it today — simply by moving his troops out of the country,” John Kirby, a spokesperson with the National Security Council, said Sunday, adding that Putin has shown “no indications” that he’s willing to sit down and negotiate an end to the war.

Other prominent Republicans have also shied away from direct calls for negotiating an end to the war in the way Trump has, instead focusing on recent missteps by President Biden and reinforcing the need to support Ukraine.

“The destruction today in Kyiv is horrific — allies and partners must get Ukraine the missile defenses and long-range weapons it has asked for,” GOP members of the House Armed Services Committee tweeted Monday. “Arbitrary red lines by the Biden admin that hinder lethal aid shipments will only prolong this conflict.”

Mike Pompeo, who served as Secretary of State under Trump and is viewed as a potential 2024 presidential candidate, focused on “Fox News Sunday” on Biden’s warnings of nuclear “Armageddon,” saying the focus should be on quiet diplomacy and public pressure on Putin.

“America has always pushed back against our adversaries by showing enormous resolve, executing quiet diplomacy in the same way that we did during our time in office,” Pompeo said.

“Making very clear to Vladimir Putin that the costs of him using a nuclear weapon will bring the force of not only the United States and Europe, but the whole world against Vladimir Putin. We ought to be doing that. I hope that they’re doing this quietly.”

Dozens of House Republicans voted against a $39 billion aid package in May. Rep. Madison Cawthorn drew blowback for calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “thug.”

Eight months after Russia first invaded Ukraine, the war has ratcheted up considerably in recent weeks. Following a series of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives to push back the Russian military, Putin sought to illegally annex four Ukrainian regions and mobilize hundreds of thousands of Russian men into the military.

An explosion over the weekend damaged a critical bridge linking Russia to the occupied Crimean Peninsula that was a key supply chain route and a personal point of pride for Putin. The Russian leader personally drove a truck over the bridge when it opened in 2018.

 

Trump authorized Israeli sovereignty in West Bank

According to The Jerusalem Post, former US president Donald Trump authorized then-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex parts of the West Bank.

In a three-page letter dated January 26, 2020, two days before Trump presented his Vision for Peace in the White House, he summarized some of its details. These included that Israel would be able to extend sovereignty to parts of the West Bank, as delineated in the map included in the plan if Netanyahu agreed to a Palestinian state in the remaining territory on that map.

Trump asked Netanyahu to adopt “the policies outlined in... the Vision [for peace] regarding those territories of the West Bank identified as becoming part of a future Palestinian state.”

In exchange for Israel implementing these policies, the US president continued, and formally adopted detailed territorial plans not inconsistent with the Conceptual Map. The letter did not delineate a timeline for sovereignty recognition.

Netanyahu’s response said that Israel would move forward with sovereignty plans in the coming days.

The letter calls into question the narrative set out in Breaking History: A White House Memoir, a new book by Trump's son-in-law and former senior adviser Jared Kushner.

In it, Kushner asserts that former US ambassador to Israel David Friedman went behind his and the president’s back and assured Bibi that he would get the White House to support annexation more immediately.

Friedman and Netanyahu viewed the matter differently, Netanyahu’s spokesman said, “The charge that Netanyahu surprised the president and his staff with an uncoordinated announcement... is utterly baseless.”

Trump's Special Representative for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt said that during his time in the White House, he always understood from former Prime Minister Netanyahu that US recognition of the extension of Israel’s sovereignty over those areas intended to be part of Israel contemplated by the peace plan released by President Trump was necessary for Netanyahu to agree to our proposed peace plan.

David Friedman was part of most, perhaps all, of those discussions and I believe he understood that clearly as well. I was no longer working at the White House at the time the peace plan was released. 

A Trump administration source closely involved with the president's letter said, "It was a key part of Israel's acceptance of the Vision for Peace as the framework for negotiations with the Palestinians for America to accept sovereignty up front, as per the mapping process and the plan, and for all the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley to be included.

Trump said in his speech – which Kushner said he read and reviewed with the president before delivery, “The United States will recognize Israeli sovereignty over the territory that my vision provides to be part of the State of Israel.

Trump said Israel and the US would work together to convert the conceptual map into a more detailed and calibrated rendering so that recognition can be immediately achieved.

“We will also work to create a contiguous territory within the future Palestinian state for when the conditions for statehood are met, including the firm rejection of terrorism,” Trump said.

“You are recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over all the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, large and small alike,” he said. “Mr. President, because of this historic recognition, and because I believe your peace plan strikes the right balance where other plans have failed, I’ve agreed to negotiate peace with the Palestinians on the basis of your peace plan.

“Israel wants the Palestinians... to have a future of national dignity, prosperity, and hope. Your peace plan offers the Palestinians such a future. Your peace plan offers the Palestinians a pathway to a future state,” Netanyahu said.

“Israel wants the Palestinians... to have a future of national dignity, prosperity, and hope. Your peace plan offers the Palestinians such a future. Your peace plan offers the Palestinians a pathway to a future state.”

The prime minister also said, “We looks forward to working with you to achieve a peace that will protect Israel’s security, provide the Palestinians with dignity and their own national life, and improve Israel’s relations with the Arab world.”

Immediately after the speeches, Netanyahu said he would bring the extension of Israeli sovereignty over parts of the West Bank to a cabinet vote the following week. Then-ambassador to Israel David Friedman told the media that Israel could start work toward annexation the moment it completed its internal process.

In Friedman’s book, Sledgehammer, released earlier this year, the ambassador wrote that the Trump administration did not know that Netanyahu already had the Jordan Valley mapped out for annexation. Netanyahu’s spokesman said, the prime minister’s letter to Trump in advance of the White House event specified that he would move forward in a matter of days.

The Trump administration source involved with the letter said that the dispute was only whether sovereignty moves could be made within a few days or weeks. Kushner himself told journalists at the UN days after the plan was presented that the mapping teams will take a couple of months before annexation moves forward.

Kushner also repeatedly claimed in the book that he struggled to convince Bibi, a master negotiator, to agree to a compromise that would give tangible life improvements to the Palestinians."

In contrast, Netanyahu conceded that a Palestinian state would be established. In addition, Friedman said Netanyahu agreed not to allow Israeli construction in the areas earmarked for the Palestinians in the plan's map.