Trump threats to India may prove hoax calls

The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the US threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen, reports Reuters.

President Donald Trump cited India's imports of Russian crude when imposing an additional 25% tariff on imports from India on August 06, which is due to take effect on August 28.

If the new tariff rate does come into place, it will take the rate for some Indian goods to as much as 50%, a level high enough to effectively end US imports from India, which totalled nearly US$87 billion in 2024.

As with everything related to Trump, it pays to be cautious given his track record of backflips and pivots.

It's also not exactly clear what Trump is ultimately seeking, although it does seem that in the short term he wants to increase his leverage with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of their planned meeting in Alaska this week, and he's using India to achieve this.

Whether Trump follows through on his additional tariffs on India remains uncertain, although the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine seem remote, which means the best path for India to avoid the tariffs would be to acquiesce and stop buying Russian oil.

But this is an outcome that simply isn't being reflected in current crude oil prices.

Global benchmark Brent futures have weakened since Trump's announcement of higher tariffs on India, dropping as low as US$65.81 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday, the lowest level in two months.

This is a price that entirely discounts any threat to global supplies, and assumes that India will either continue buying Russian crude at current volumes, or be able to easily source suitable replacements without tightening the global market.

The track record of the crude oil market is somewhat remarkable in that it quickly adapts to new geopolitical realities and any price spikes tend to be short-lived.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent crude prices hurtling toward US$150 a barrel as European and other Western countries pulled back from buying Russian crude.

But what Trump is proposing now is somewhat different. It appears he wants to cut Russian barrels out of the market in order to put financial pressure on Moscow to cut a deal over Ukraine.

There are effectively only two major buyers for Russian crude, India and China.

China, the world's biggest crude importer, has more leverage with Trump given US and Western reliance on its refined critical and other minerals, and therefore is less able to be coerced into ending its imports of Russian oil.

India is in a less strong position, especially private refiners like Reliance Industries which will want to keep business relationships and access to Western economies.

India imported about 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first half of the year, or about 37% of its total, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

About 90% of its Russian imports came from Russia's European ports and was mainly Urals grade.

This is a medium sour crude and it would raise challenges for Indian refiners if they sought to replace all their Urals imports with similar grades from other suppliers.

There are some Middle Eastern grades of similar quality, such as Saudi Arabia's Arab Light and Iraq's Basrah Light, but it would likely boost prices if India were to seek more of these crudes.

If Chinese refiners were able to take the bulk of Russian crude given up by India, it may allow for a re-shuffling of flows, but that would not appear to be what Trump wants.

Trump and his advisers may believe there is enough spare crude production capacity in the United States and elsewhere to handle the loss of up to 2 million bpd of Russian supplies.

But testing that theory may well lead to higher prices, especially for certain types of medium crudes which would be in short supply.

It's simplistic to say that higher US output can supply India's refiners, as this would mean those refiners would have to be willing to accept a different mix of refined products, including producing less diesel, as US light crudes tend to make more products such as gasoline.

For now the crude oil market is assuming that the Trump/ India/ Russia situation will end as another TACO, the acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out.

But the reality is likely to be slightly messier, as some Indian refiners pull back from importing from Russia, some Chinese refiners may buy more and once again the oil market goes on a geopolitical merry-go-round.

  

India faces US sanction in disguise

The United States has increased its tariff on certain Indian imports from 25% to 50%. President Donald Trump has called this new measure a “secondary” tariff, a term that is not formally used in trade policy but is similar to what is known in sanctions law.

Secondary sanctions are penalties placed on third parties that are seen as supporting actions the sanctioning country opposes. For example, if a US bank, port, shipping company, or other business is prohibited from dealing with the Russian financial system, a secondary sanction could make it illegal for non-US entities to engage in similar transactions as well, reports Bloomberg.

India is affected because the tariff is linked to its purchases of Russian oil. The stated goal of the measure is to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine. If that goal is not achieved, it is uncertain what additional steps the US might take toward India, which is currently the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude oil.

The idea of calling the tariff “secondary” is unusual, but the US also has more conventional tools for sanctions, such as the Specially Designated Nationals list managed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control in the Treasury Department.

State-owned Indian refiners are already pulling back from the Russian trade. If they start showing up on the SDN list, it would become difficult for others to do business with them. No amount of nationalistic bluster can mitigate the seriousness of that threat. To lose access to the US currency or the Western-controlled banking system would be a far bigger setback than a 50% tariff. Even large Indian tycoons will not want to needle Trump. Russian crude has been the biggest source of oil for Mukesh Ambani’s refinery this year. His rival billionaire Gautam Adani doesn’t have any exposure to oil, but he has existing legal trouble with the US government. He also has a vast port network to protect, reports Bloomberg.

What’s the way out then? In an interview with Reuters, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who’s also been handed penal tariffs of 50%, floated a trial balloon: a joint response by BRICS. Modi, who spoke on the phone with Lula for nearly an hour Thursday, is expected to head to China this month — for the first time in seven years. Marshaling a unified front to challenge Trump’s overreach might make sense to Lula, but ratcheting up the confrontation with Washington should hold no appeal for Modi.

Brazil’s biggest export market is China, with whom it has a US$49 billion trade surplus. India, on the other hand, sells just about $32 billion annually to Brazil, Russia and China — combined. The US buys nearly three times as much from it, in addition to providing tens of thousands of work visas each year to Indian techies. Washington also controls the student-visa pipeline for — amongst others — children of local politicians, bureaucrats, tycoons and bankers. Even if Modi wants to go on a collision course with Trump, the elite wouldn’t let him, reports Bloomberg.

Team Modi must switch its focus. What started off as a US-China trade and technology war has turned into a much bigger play for absolute American dominance. There is no point now in negotiating a discount on the 25% reciprocal tariff. Let that be handled as part of a broader trade deal. Getting the secondary tax cancelled in Trump’s three-week grace period has to be the more immediate goal.

Even if Modi succeeds in that limited objective, his political opponents won’t let him run a victory lap. “India, please understand: The reason Modi cannot stand up to President Trump despite his repeated threats is the ongoing US investigation into Adani,” Rahul Gandhi, leader of the opposition in parliament, wrote in a post on X. He went on to say that Modi’s hands are tied by AA. Gandhi, who often questions the outsize economic dominance of Ambani and Adani, refers to them in shorthand as AA — or A1 and A2.

Adani, the infrastructure czar, is facing criminal charges in the US for his alleged role in what the Department of Justice has described as a US$250 million bribery scheme involving a solar-energy contract. The Adani Group has refuted the allegations as baseless and said it’s fully compliant with all laws. It also denied a Wall Street Journal article in June that said that US prosecutors are investigating whether Adani’s companies imported Iranian liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG, into India through his flagship Mundra port, violating sanctions.

The businessman from Modi’s home state of Gujarat also denies receiving any favors from the government because of his long association with the prime minister. During his visit to the White House in February, Modi, who doesn’t comment on Adani at home, described the tycoon’s legal troubles as a “personal matter” that doesn’t belong to discussions between national leaders. This week, Adani stepped back from his role as executive chairman of the port business, which controls Israel’s Haifa terminal and is looking to expand in Europe. The company said the transition to a non-executive role, in which Adani will no longer count among key management personnel, was to ensure compliance with corporate governance norms. It “was long planned.”

The secondary tariff is just Trump-speak for a display of America’s power over non-Americans. Ambani’s oil-refining business is trying to diversify away from Russia, One of his units has paid a US$10 million “development fee” to the president’s real-estate firm, licensing the Trump name in Mumbai, according to the WSJ.

There is no other option. Trade disputes can still be taken to the World Trade Organization. In the realm of sanctions, might is the only rule — and the dollar the only currency. The likes of Lula and Modi can protest the former as much as they want, but no savvy businessman in their countries can do without the latter.

 

Future of dark fleet after Ukraine war ends

According to the Seatrade Maritimes News, three years on from Russian invasion of Ukraine some kind of peace agreement is looking increasingly possible with talks between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine officials saying a minerals deal with the US has been agreed. There are though still significant hurdles to be overcome between all sides in United States, Europe, Ukraine and Russia.

If a peace deal is agreed and sanctions on Russia by the United States, European Union, and Britain are rolled back it raises the question of what will happen to the shadow fleet of mainly elderly, poorly maintained tankers that are currently serving the sanction Russian oil trades.

The shadow or dark fleet of over 1,000 vessel is not solely the result of Russian invasion as some ships do also serve sanctioned trades with the likes of Iran and Venezuela, the large majority of the fleet has grown out of employment on Russian oil trades.

The question of what would happen with the shadow fleet if war in the Ukraine ends was one that a conference panel on commodities shipping in Singapore last week grappled with.

Peter Kolding, VP Commercial & Management for tanker owner Hafnia noted that given Russian business was comparatively high risk due to sanctions there was a premium for vessels on those trades.

“Those trades are operated by the oldest part of the fleet and good parts of that fleet would in an ordinary world probably be on a beach now to be scrapped, but they've been kept alive because of the premiums on the trade. If the war ends and the sanctions are lifted, those trades will go back with mainstream players requiring mainstream ships,” he told delegates at the conference during Commodity Trading Week Asia.

The elderly vessels currently employed in the shadow fleet would likely have difficulty finding employment on other trades resulting in ships gradually being sent for scrap.

Capt Subhangshu Dutt, Managing Director of tanker owner OM Maritime, agreed that the shadow fleet would have great difficulty in finding employment, and would likely not pass even the first round of vetting with oil majors. However, some might be used by intermediate traders or teapot refineries.

The tanker markets have benefitted over the last three years from the change in trading patterns and increased in tonne miles brought about by sanctions and tightening demand and supply balance.

Kolding noted that while the end of the war and return to previous trading patterns would be negative in terms of ton miles it would also trigger a considerable amount of scrapping from the shadow fleet so these factors would balance each other out. “So, from a Hafnia perspective we don't see an end to the war and an end to sanctions as a main negative anymore.”

However, there would be a time lag between the ending of sanctions and the large-scale scrapping of vessels in the shadow fleet that would put pressure on tanker rates.

Kolding estimated a period of 12 – 18 months where the market would feel some pain before owners were pushed into scrapping older, unprofitable ships.

 

Finland seizes ship carrying oil for Russia

Finland on Thursday seized a ship carrying oil for Russia in relation to the recent cutting of an undersea cable connecting electricity to Estonia as concern mounts over ships disrupting power and gas lines in European waters.

Finland’s national law enforcement body, the Police of Finland, said in a statement it had seized a Cook Islands-registered ship called the Eagle S.

The ship is suspected in the rupturing of the Estlink 2 power transmission cable connecting electricity between Estonia and Finland, but police said at this time the investigation is looking at the incident as “aggravated criminal mischief.”

The power cable was disconnected on Wednesday, according to Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, who said at the time that authorities were “on standby over Christmas and are investigating the matter.”

European officials said the ship is suspected of carrying Russian oil, part of a vast shadow fleet Moscow is using to circumvent Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.

The European Commission said the disruption “is the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure.”

“We strongly condemn any deliberate destruction of Europe’s critical infrastructure,” officials said in a statement.

“The suspected vessel is part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which threatens security and the environment, while funding Russia’s war budget. We will propose further measures, including sanctions, to target this fleet.”

The European Commission said it would move to strengthen undersea cable protection through increasing related detection methods, information sharing and repair work.

Finnish leaders have also expressed concern about Russia’s alleged connection to the cutting of the cable.

“It is necessary to be able to prevent the risks posed by ships belonging to the Russian shadow fleet,” wrote Finnish President Alexander Stubb on the social platform X.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal urged the European Union and the Western security alliance NATO to increase cooperation on efforts to protect undersea cables.

The incident follows a concerning trend in the West of undersea cable disruptions in Europe.

A Chinese ship called the Yi Peng 3 is suspected of rupturing undersea cables last month linking Sweden and Lithuania and another connecting Germany and Finland.

The Chinese ship recently left European waters despite ongoing investigations into the matter, as officials have accused the vessel of dragging an anchor to cut the line, although they are still investigating whether it was on accident or on purpose.

A Hong Kong-registered ship was also responsible for cutting a critical gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland last year.

 

 

 

Lloyd’s Register drops ships of top Indian carrier of Russian oil

Lloyd's Register has told India's Gatik Ship Management, a major carrier of Russian oil since the Ukraine war that it will withdraw certification of 21 of its vessels by June 03, 2023.

It is the latest setback for Gatik, which was also been forced to find new flags for 36 of its ships after they were deflagged by the St. Kitts & Nevis International Ship Registry.

"Lloyd's Register is committed to facilitating compliance with sanctions regulations on the trading of Russian oil," it said in an email to Reuters. "Where supported by evidence, we withdraw class and services from any vessels found by the relevant authorities to be breaching international sanctions."

Classification societies such as Lloyd's Register in London provide services including seaworthiness checks, certification that is vital for securing insurance and entry to ports.

Lloyd's Register said, 11 of the Gatik vessels it was declassifying were also certified by the Indian Register of Shipping (IRClass).

Gatik, which is based in the Indian city of Mumbai according to shipping databases, did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

A major US insurer, the American Club, also told Reuters it was no longer providing cover for Gatik ships, while Russian insurer Ingosstrakh said it would not work with Gatik in future.

Neither the insurers, Lloyd's Register nor the flag registry spelled out exactly why they have dropped business with Gatik.

 

Western curbs on Russian oil redraw global shipping map

Global fuel suppliers are turning to longer and costlier routes that produce more carbon emissions to move their diesel and other products as Western restrictions on Russian cargoes have reshuffled global energy shipping patterns.

As a result of the European Union ban on Russian fuel that started on February 05, tankers carrying clean oil products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and naphtha are travelling between 16 and 18 days to bring Russian supplies to Brazil or US cargoes to Europe, according to two shipping sources.

That is up from the four to six days a ship used to travel from Russia to Europe, said the two sources, a broker at a major shipbroking firm and a charterer involved in the Russian trade of naphtha, which is used to make plastics and petrochemicals.

Since the start of the ban, the Clean Tanker Index published by the Baltic Exchange, which measures average freight rates for shipping fuels like gasoline and diesel on some of the most common global routes, has more than doubled.

The redrawing of the shipping map underscores the knock-on effects of Western efforts to punish Russia over its invasion of Ukraine last year, adding to fuel supply insecurity and pushing up prices even as policymakers worry about inflation and the risk of a global economic downturn.

"Not only are voyages much longer, but vessel behavior has also changed, keeping vessels from operating in other CPP (clean petroleum product) markets," Dylan Simpson, freight analyst at oil analytics firm Vortexa, wrote in a March 31 note.

Russian cargoes of fuel are heading to far-flung buyers in Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria, and Morocco as Moscow compensates for the lost European business, while Europe is importing more fuels such as diesel from Asia and the Middle East, according to shipping data from Refinitiv and Kpler.

Asian cargoes, in turn, are being displaced by Russian fuels in Africa and the eastern Mediterranean, and redirected to the blending hub of Singapore for temporary storage, two northeast Asian refinery sources said.

European importers whose naphtha cargoes travelled from Russian ports to Antwerp in four days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine now must wait 18 days for alternative supplies from the United States, the shipbroking source said.

The US is also emerging as a top supplier of heavy naphtha to Europe amid the EU ban, while the Group of Seven Nations, EU and Australia have capped Russian naphtha prices at US$45 a barrel and diesel and gasoline at US$100 a barrel for trades that use Western ships and insurance. Meanwhile, Brazil, traditionally a US naphtha importer, is boosting purchases from Russia at more attractive prices.

However, the journey from Russia to Brazil can take 18 days or longer and, at up to US$7 million per voyage, the costs are nearly double that of a US shipment, the ship charterer involved in the Russian market said.

Brazil received around 240,000 tons of Russian diesel and gasoil in the first three weeks of March, accounting for a quarter of Brazilian imports, up from Russia's 12% share in February and less than 1% last year, said Benedict George, head of diesel pricing with energy and commodity data provider Argus.

"Until February, Europe had remained Russia's primary market for refined product exports; however, in the space of a month, a major pivot has been observed," tanker broker E A Gibson said in a recent report.

Measured in terms of cargo miles, which multiplies the cargo quantity in metric tons by the distance travelled in nautical miles, the amount of Russian oil product shipments to Brazil in March rose to 3.07 billion metric ton-nautical miles (MT-NM) from 941 million MT-NM in November, according to data from valuation company VesselsValue. Shipments from Russia to Nigeria rose to 1.88 billion MT-NM in March from zero in November, VesselsValue estimates showed.

Clean product cargoes to Saudi Arabia in March jumped to 1.75 billion MT-NM from 31 million MT-NM in November, while shipments to the United Arab Emirates were 4.43 billion MT-NM in March, up from 2.85 billion MT-NM in November, the data showed.

Also in March, Russian clean products shipped to Togo reached 973 million MT-NM, up from zero in November. In volume terms, Brazilian imports of oil products from Russia were about 284,000 tons in February, up from 73,300 tons in September, VesselsValue data showed. Conversely, Russian exports to the Netherlands dropped to 238,200 tons in February from 1.15 million tons in September.

Those longer distances are being done at higher costs for Russian products than for typical shipments from Europe.

According to market estimates, freight rates for the UK/European continent to West Africa are quoted at US$55.77 per ton for a product tanker with a standard 37,000-tonne load. This compares with an indicative rate of US$174.24 per ton for shipments from Russia's Baltic ports to Nigeria, US$103.84 for Morocco and around US$150 to Egypt.

With ships travelling further, that is also likely translating into greater emissions from smokestacks.

Based on pre-pandemic data, a 10% increase in mileage for all tankers travelling to and from the European economic area would increase their emissions by around 1.5 million tons of carbon dioxide, equal to the emissions of around 750,000 cars per year in Europe, said Valentin Simon, data analyst with the Transport & Environment think tank in Brussels.

India: Refiners pay traders in dirhams for Russian oil

Indian refiners have begun paying for most of their Russian oil purchased via Dubai-based traders in United Arab Emirates dirhams instead of US. Dollars, reports Reuters.

While Western sanctions against Moscow are not recognized by India, and purchases of Russian oil may in any case not violate them, banks and financial institutions are cautious about clearing payments so as not to unwittingly fall foul of the many measures imposed against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

Indian refiners and traders are concerned they may not be able to continue to settle trades in dollars, especially if the price of Russian crude rises above a cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations and Australia in December.

That has led traders to seek alternative methods of payment, which could also aid Russia's efforts to de-dollarize its economy in response to the Western sanctions.

Previous attempts by Indian refiners to pay traders for Russian crude in dirhams through Dubai banks failed, forcing them to switch back to the US currency.

But India's top bank, the State Bank of India (SBI), is now clearing these dirham payments, the sources told Reuters, providing details of transactions that have not previously been reported.

The G7 price cap prohibits any Western company, such as the insurance and shipping service providers that underpin much of global trade, from involvement in trading Russian crude if the purchase price is above $60 a barrel at the loading point in Russia. That remains the case even if the oil is bound for countries such as China and India which do not recognize the cap.

The shift to dirham payments was also triggered by the SBI asking refiners looking to make dollar payments for Russian crude to provide a breakdown of the costs of the oil, freight and insurance, allowing it to vet trade and avoid violating the cap.

"The SBI is very conservative in its approach," one of the sources said, even though India does not follow the price cap mechanism and Western insurance and shipping are not used for delivery.

Indian refiners typically buy Russian crude from traders at a price that includes delivery to India.

An invoice for such a deal seen by Reuters showed traders asking for an average crude price including freight for Urals crude. The document calculated the price of the cargo in dollars and dirhams.

The four sources said Indian refiners are buying Russian oil on a delivered basis to mitigate any risks arising during shipping, and so far the calculated cost at the point of loading has been below the price cap.

Indian refiners mostly buy Russian crude from Dubai-based traders including Everest Energy and Litasco, a unit of Russian oil major Lukoil.

India's oil secretary Pankaj Jain last month said Indian companies were not facing any problems in paying for Russian oil as the latest actions by the West do not impact the trade settlement mechanism.

 

Turkey warns oil shippers

Turkey warned the oil shippers they will need to prove they’re insured to cross the country’s vital straits, a move that could restrict flows of Russian oil as new European sanctions kick in.

The new rule starts December 01, 2022 a few days before the European Union and UK impose additional curbs on Russian trade that will make it much harder for tankers carrying the nation’s oil to get insurance. 

The insurance covers everything from oil spills to collisions, Turkey is in effect seeking to protect its waters, but it could also affect the flow of millions of barrels of Russian crude exports.

Ships hauling oil through the waterway and the nearby Dardanelles strait will be required to provide a letter from their insurer saying that cover will be provided for that specific vessel voyage and cargo, the Turkish Ministry of Transport said in a circular.

The European Union and the UK commence aggressive sanctions on Russian oil shipments on December 05, 2022 that will dramatically affect the availability of industry standard insurance. 

Russia shipped almost 650,000 barrels a day of its own oil through the straight from its Black Sea port of Novorossiysk over the past six months, loading programs compiled by Bloomberg show. A nearby Russian port exported almost 1.3 million barrels a day of cargo from Kazakhstan.

A director from the Turkish institution governing maritime traffic confirmed the letter, and said the motive behind it was to comply with EU sanctions even though Turkey is not part of them. 

The director said the move could well impact Russian tankers if they struggle to obtain the necessary protection and indemnity insurance, which covers owners against liabilities such as oil spills. The measure should boost maritime safety along the Turkish straits, he said.

Under the EU and UK sanctions, vessels will still be able to get industry standard cover, provided the cargoes being transported are purchased below a yet-to-be-determined price cap.

If ships sail through the straits uninsured, there could be significant damage to the waterway and vessel traffic could come to a standstill if an uninsured ship has an accident, the circular said. As a result, a letter guaranteeing insurance cover is considered a solution to this problem, it added. 

The International Group of P&I Clubs is based in London and organizes the cover of 95% of the global tanker fleet. It’s also reliant on Europe for reinsurance.

 

United States extends undue favor to India

The US House of Representative has passed a legislative amendment that would protect India from punitive sanctions for buying missiles from Russia.

The India-specific amendment, passed on Thursday afternoon, still has to go through the Senate before it’s signed by President Joe Biden.

Authored and introduced by Indian-American Congressman Ro Khanna, urges the Biden administration to give India a waiver to the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which can bring immediate sanctions against New Delhi for buying weapons from Moscow.

The amendment argues that such a waiver is needed to deter China’s influence in the region. It was passed by voice vote as part of an en bloc amendment during floor consideration of the US defence bill for 2023.

US law deems waiver ‘necessary’ to counter China’s growing global influence

The United States views India as a key ally in its effort to counter China’s growing global influence and has also included it in the alliance known as ‘Quad’ that aims to counter China in the Pacific region.

Enacted by the US Congress in 2017, CAATSA provides for punitive actions against any country engaged in transactions with Russian defence and intelligence sectors.

CAATSA became a sticking point in India-US ties after New Delhi inked a deal to secure the S-400 missile defence system from Moscow, in the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war. India has also violated US sanctions on buying oil from Russia.

In May, Senator Bob Menendez, who heads the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, pointed out at a congressional hearing that the Indians “go buy oil from Russia. They buy the S-400 anti-missile system. They abstain at the United Nations on votes criticizing Russia and yet they were never punished for these violations.

Khanna, who is Vice Chair of the India Caucus in the US Congress, however, urged Washington to “stand with India in the face of escalating aggression from China”.

The Reuters news agency reported this week that India’s oil imports from Russia surged to a record of around 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, as Indian refiners snapped up Russian oil sold at hefty discounts.

India shipped in about 4.8 million bpd of oil in June, about 23 per cent higher than a year earlier, the report added.