Finland seizes ship carrying oil for Russia

Finland on Thursday seized a ship carrying oil for Russia in relation to the recent cutting of an undersea cable connecting electricity to Estonia as concern mounts over ships disrupting power and gas lines in European waters.

Finland’s national law enforcement body, the Police of Finland, said in a statement it had seized a Cook Islands-registered ship called the Eagle S.

The ship is suspected in the rupturing of the Estlink 2 power transmission cable connecting electricity between Estonia and Finland, but police said at this time the investigation is looking at the incident as “aggravated criminal mischief.”

The power cable was disconnected on Wednesday, according to Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, who said at the time that authorities were “on standby over Christmas and are investigating the matter.”

European officials said the ship is suspected of carrying Russian oil, part of a vast shadow fleet Moscow is using to circumvent Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.

The European Commission said the disruption “is the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure.”

“We strongly condemn any deliberate destruction of Europe’s critical infrastructure,” officials said in a statement.

“The suspected vessel is part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which threatens security and the environment, while funding Russia’s war budget. We will propose further measures, including sanctions, to target this fleet.”

The European Commission said it would move to strengthen undersea cable protection through increasing related detection methods, information sharing and repair work.

Finnish leaders have also expressed concern about Russia’s alleged connection to the cutting of the cable.

“It is necessary to be able to prevent the risks posed by ships belonging to the Russian shadow fleet,” wrote Finnish President Alexander Stubb on the social platform X.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal urged the European Union and the Western security alliance NATO to increase cooperation on efforts to protect undersea cables.

The incident follows a concerning trend in the West of undersea cable disruptions in Europe.

A Chinese ship called the Yi Peng 3 is suspected of rupturing undersea cables last month linking Sweden and Lithuania and another connecting Germany and Finland.

The Chinese ship recently left European waters despite ongoing investigations into the matter, as officials have accused the vessel of dragging an anchor to cut the line, although they are still investigating whether it was on accident or on purpose.

A Hong Kong-registered ship was also responsible for cutting a critical gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland last year.

 

 

 

China: Largest in maritime trade

Judging by the cargo flowing through Chinese maritime ports, the world’s export king still reigns despite efforts by the United States and Europe to diversify their trading relations.

That’s among the takeaways in the One Hundred Ports 2024 report this week from Lloyd’s List. China’s share of container volumes at the biggest 100 seaports globally rose to 41.3% last year, from 40.2% a year earlier, ten years ago the figure stood at 36.6%.

In a distant second place was the rest of Asia, which as a region had a 26.6% share, North America came in with 7.6% and Europe with 7.3%.

Linton Nightingale, deputy editor with Lloyd’s List, said China’s position as the Factory to the World “shows little sign of diminishing anytime soon.”

“Yes, shippers and manufacturers are looking to other countries to source goods in a bid to diversify supply chains — a trend that has accelerated off the back of the pandemic which caused a rethink on Chinese reliance,” he said. “But as our data shows, the world continues to rely heavily on its exports.”

Other key points from the report:

Of the world’s top 10 ports, measured by annual container throughput, seven are in China

The steepest climber on the list was China’s Jiaxing, which jumped 17 places to 58th

Rotterdam, a top-10 finisher in last year’s ranking, fell to 12th

Dubai climbed two spots to No. 9

The two biggest US ports each slipped two places — Los Angeles to No. 18 and Long Beach to 21st

In a world where trade is a key battlefield for opposing economic powers, the reason why rankings matter goes beyond bragging rights. Ports are on the front lines of three major transformations: protectionism, digitization and de-carbonization.

As a result, they’re neglected no more and stand to benefit from more than US$200 billion in investments annually over the next decade, according estimates reported in ‘Bloomberg’s Big Take’. The story zooms in on eight of the world’s most dynamic ports, each trying to adapt to new geopolitical and business realities.

“Trade flows are changing and are growing more complex as shippers redirect cargoes to skirt mounting geopolitical tensions,” Nightingale said.

In China’s case, “the trade war with US is the most disruptive,” he said. “However, Chinese goods are still entering the US and often via other emerging economies, whether Mexico, Vietnam or India, to circumvent tariffs.”

Those alternative routes are among the reasons that China is withstanding tariffs, export controls and other measures wielded by the US and Europe, and may continue to do so as it expands into more advanced manufacturing.

According to a new research report from Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, “China is largely undiminished as an industrial and manufacturing powerhouse.”

“Subsidies appear to be fueling a shift away from products that helped create the Chinese miracle of the 1990s and 2000s, like textiles and toys, into higher value-added products like computers and electric vehicles, driven by domestic Chinese firms,” Lazard’s report said.

“Geopolitical tension and economic struggles must therefore be weighed against the reality that China is still the largest global exporter of goods and may succeed in its pivot to more high-tech products.”

 

Vance opposition to Ukraine aid irks Europeans

In February this year, European political and foreign policy elite heard directly from Senator JD Vance on his opposition to military aid for Ukraine and his blunt warning that Europe will have to rely less on the United States to defend the continent.

If those comments at the annual Munich Security Conference were a first wake-up call, alarm bells are now ringing loudly across the continent after Republican Donald Trump picked Vance as his vice presidential candidate for November's US election.

"His selection as the running mate is worrying for Europe," said Ricarda Lang, co-leader of the German Green party that is part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government, who took part in a panel discussion with Vance in Munich.

Vance stoked fears in Europe that if Trump returns to the White House, he will drop, or curb, US support for Kyiv and push Ukraine into peace negotiations to end the war that would give Moscow a substantial slice of Ukraine and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to pursue further military adventures.

That view was bolstered by a letter to EU leaders from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who visited Trump last week. Orban, a Trump ally, said the ex-president will be "ready to act as a peace broker immediately" if he wins in November.

Lang said on X that Vance had made very clear in Munich how quickly he and Trump would "deliver Ukraine to Putin".

At the Munich conference, Vance said Putin did not pose an existential threat to Europe, and Americans and Europeans could not provide enough munitions to defeat Russia in Ukraine.

He suggested the United States' strategic priorities lay more in Asia and the Middle East.

"There are a lot of bad guys all over the world. And I'm much more interested in some of the problems in East Asia right now than I am in Europe," he told the conference.

Speaking on a podcast with Trump ally Steve Bannon in 2022, Vance said, "I don't really care what happens in Ukraine one way or the other."

In Munich, he advocated for a "negotiated peace" and said he thought Russia had an incentive to come to the table

That stance is in stark contrast with the view of most European leaders, who argue the West should continue to support Ukraine massively with military aid and say they see no sign of Putin being willing to engage in serious negotiations.

Vance also voted against a US funding bill for Ukraine that eventually passed in April. In a New York Times op-ed justifying his vote, he argued Kyiv and Washington must abandon Ukraine's goal of returning to its 1991 borders with Russia.

Nils Schmid, the foreign policy spokesperson of Scholz's Social Democrat party - said he had observed Vance in Munich and concluded the senator saw himself as Trump's mouthpiece.

"He takes an even more radical stance on Ukraine than Trump and wants to end military support. In terms of foreign policy, he is more isolationist than Trump," Schmid told Reuters.

But some cautioned against jumping to conclusions about Vance, who was born into an impoverished home in southern Ohio.

"JD Vance is a devout Christian and the circumstances of his childhood give me great hope that he, like Speaker Mike Johnson, will conclude that US support for Ukraine is the only option," said Melinda Haring, a senior adviser for Razom for Ukraine, a US-based charitable organization that advocates for Ukraine.

"While Vance has come out strongly against Ukraine, he hasn’t been in a top job and as vice president I expect to see his views evolve."

Some diplomats also cautioned that the US election was far from over.

"We need to stop creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Trump hasn’t won and Biden hasn’t lost," said a French diplomat.

In Ukraine, politicians were wary of criticizing Vance openly, as they may have to deal with him as US vice president. But some acknowledged harboring concerns.

Oleksiy Honcharenko, a lawmaker from the opposition European Solidarity party, said he had met Vance at the Munich conference and found him to be "a very intelligent and cool-headed man".

"Is there any concern about Vance's statements? Of course. The US is our biggest and most important ally," he told Reuters.

"We must remain allies and show the US that Ukraine not only needs help, but can help itself."

Maryan Zablotskyy, a lawmaker for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's Servant of the People party, argued Russia was harming US interests on many fronts. He said any US politician pursuing an America First agenda "will never be positive towards Russia".

 

 

Russia becomes top gas supplier to Europe

According to some cynical views, the Ukraine war, allegedly orchestrated by Victoria Nuland and deep state energy interests, aimed to replace Russia with the United States as Europe's primary gas supplier. The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline seemed to support this theory. However, this effort appears to have failed.

In May 2024, Europe’s gas imports from Russia once again surpassed those from the US for the first time in nearly two years, despite Europe’s attempts to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels since the Ukraine invasion. Factors contributing to this include eastern European countries relying on Russian imports and others bypassing sanctions for cheaper energy.

“It’s striking to see the market share of Russian gas and LNG inch higher in Europe after all we have been through,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at consultancy ICIS. Despite efforts to decouple, Europe remains reliant on Moscow for energy.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow cut its pipeline gas supplies to Europe, leading the region to increase LNG imports, primarily from the US. By September 2022, the US became Europe’s leading gas supplier, contributing about a fifth of the region’s supply by 2023.

In May 2024, Russian-piped gas and LNG accounted for 15% of the total supply to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia, while US LNG accounted for 14%, its lowest since August 2022.

The reversal in supply was influenced by factors such as an outage at a major US LNG export facility and increased Russian gas sent through Turkey. European demand for gas also remains weak, with storage levels high for this time of year. Some, like Marzec-Manser, believe this shift is temporary, expecting Russia to redirect LNG to Asia via the Northern Sea Route and US LNG production to rise.

The transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia ends this year, risking future gas flows. The European Commission supports expanding pipelines in the Southern Gas Corridor between the EU and Azerbaijan, but this route currently cannot replace the Russian gas flowing through Ukraine.

The EU’s energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, highlighted concerns about LNG being diverted to Asia and emphasized the EU’s preparedness to handle global gas market disruptions. She noted that EU gas storage remains high, and demand has stabilized at low levels, down 20% compared to 2021.

Iranian oil output and price improve

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report has said that Iran’s oil production volume increased by 28,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.188 million BPD in March 2024 and heavy oil price also increased by US$3.0 during this period.

The OPEC total crude oil production volume reached 26.604 million bpd in March 2024, showing a 3,000 bpd increase as compared to a month before.

According to this report, the price of each barrel of Iran’s heavy crude oil in March 2024 reached US$83.48 BPD.

The average oil price of OPEC in March 2024 reached US$84.22, showing an increase of US$2.99 BPD.

Back in January, a report released by the US Department of Energy stated that Iran has been the top OPEC member in terms of production increase in 2023, with an increase of 330,000 bpd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) affiliated with the Department of Energy mentioned in its latest report that the total oil production of Iran was estimated at 2.87 million bpd at the end of 2023. Iran’s oil production was 2.54 million bpd in 2022.

The figures show that total OPEC oil production was 26.89 million bpd in 2023 which shows 630,000 barrels fall year on year. OPEC produced 27.52 million bpd in 2022.

This report has put Iran's oil production in the last month of last year at 3.17 million bpd. Iran was the third-largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq in December 2023.

The 330,000-bpd increase in Iran’s 2023 oil production indicates that sanctions have been ineffective on Iran's oil industry.

Earlier in June 2023, Bloomberg reported that the production and export of Iranian oil in 2023 reached record highs since the country came under US sanctions more than five years ago.

The report published in late June 2023 stated that Iran was shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

A Reuters report, also said in June last year Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

Iran has not released official figures about its oil exports over the past years amid efforts to evade Washington’s sanctions.

 

Global oil refining capacity at risk

More than a fifth of global oil refining capacity is at risk of closure, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie found in analysis published on Thursday, as gasoline margins weaken and the pressure to reduce carbon emissions mounts.

Of 465 refining assets analyzed, the consultancy ranked about 21% of 2023 global refining capacity at some risk of closure.

Europe and China house the greatest number of high-risk sites, putting about 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity in jeopardy, Wood Mac found, based on its estimate of net cash margins, cost of carbon emissions, ownership, environmental investment and strategic value of refineries.

There are 11 European sites that account for 45% of all high-risk plants.

About 30 European refineries have already shut down since 2009, data from industry body Concawe shows, with nearly 90 still in operation.

This spate of closures has been brought on by competition from newer and more complex plants in the Middle East and Asia as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gasoline margins are expected to weaken by the end of this decade as demand declines and sanctions on Russia ease while expected carbon taxes should also start to bite.

Operating costs could go up so much that "closure may be the only option", said Wood Mac senior oils and chemicals analyst Emma Fox.

Meanwhile, Nigeria's huge Dangote oil refinery could bring to an end decades-long gasoline trade from Europe to Africa worth US$17 billion a year, heaping pressure on European refineries already at risk of closure from heightened competition.

The Dangote refinery, with capacity of up to 650,000 bpd, began production in January but was not included in Wood Mac's analysis.

The seven high-risk sites in China are small-scale independent refineries. Sometimes called 'teapots', these refineries are subject to more stringent government regulations and compete with larger integrated sites that are typically state-owned and more complex.

Human Rights Activists condemn calls for war with Iran

Nearly 60 activists warned that a military attack on Iran would damage the legitimate struggle of the Iranian people for democracy and peace.

Dozens of Iranian human rights activists, including the husband of jailed 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, released a joint statement Tuesday condemning recent calls for war against Iran, warning that a military attack on their country would undermine the legitimate struggle of the Iranian people for democracy and peace.

The 57 activists published their statement as politicians in the United States, Europe, and Israel continued to lash out at Iran in the wake of Hamas' October 07 attack on Israel, claiming without evidence that Tehran was involved in planning the assault and—in some cases—pushing for a military response.

The new statement calls out by name the Union Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a group chaired by former US Senator Joe Lieberman. Two days after Hamas' attack, Lieberman and UANI CEO Mark Wallace urged the US, Israel, and their allies to launch strikes against military and intelligence targets in Iran.

The Iranian activists warned that such an attack would bring a massive avalanche of suffering and destruction upon our country.

While denouncing the Iranian government's "tyranny and oppression at home and tension-causing policies abroad, the activists said they oppose the direct and indirect call for a military attack on Iran, under any guise and with any pretext.

"We ask all Iranians not to allow opportunists to tie the struggle of the Iranian people for democracy, freedom, and peace with warmongering and calling for a military attack on our country," they wrote.

The statement was released amid mounting fears that Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip could soon become a wider regional conflict, particularly once Israel launches its expected ground invasion of the besieged Palestinian enclave.

In recent days, the Biden administration has mobilized missile defense systems and aircraft carriers to the Middle East, placed thousands of US troops on higher alert, and sent additional arms to Israel in what's been described as an effort to deter Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah from getting involved in the war on Gaza. Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire intermittently since October 07.

US officials have blamed Iran for recent drone attacks on American troops stationed in Syria and Iraq, even while acknowledging it's not clear that Iran ordered the attacks. In a speech to the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that the United States does not seek conflict with Iran and does not want this war to widen.

"But if Iran or its proxies attack US personnel anywhere, make no mistake, we will defend our people, we will defend our security‚—swiftly and decisively, said Blinken.

Iranian leaders, for their part, have said they could be forced to act if Israel invades Gaza.

During a news conference earlier this week, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said that if Israel and the US do not immediately stop the crime against humanity and genocide in Gaza, anything is possible at any moment and the region will go out of control.

 

 

Threat of second Nakba looms larger

The past two weeks show how easily the western world turns its back on Palestinians in times of crisis. While the West has shown solidarity with the Israeli victims, it has remained appallingly silent over – and even encouraged – the crimes being committed against Palestinians in Gaza.

The world is seeing western racism in all its cruelty, as Palestinian lives are deemed inherently less valuable. The worst horror is the silence and complicity of the West in Israel’s unspeakable massacres.

All Palestinians feel they are being held responsible and paying the price for Israel’s failure to maintain security along the Gaza fence. From 1948 communities to Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank are being targeted on the basis of their identity.

All they hear are western countries giving their full support to Israel, which is using this cover to commit crimes, arrest people and violate the human rights of Palestinians anywhere in the country.

Palestinians do not feel they are safe. Tensions hang heavy, even just in the way people look at each other.

When one walks the streets of Jerusalem streets are empty, but police and private security forces are there. 

Increasing numbers of civilians have been carrying guns in the streets, and even in shopping malls, where some Israelis were armed with M16s. This comes after National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir decided to hand out thousands of guns and to ease the conditions for purchasing weapons.

Many from occupied East Jerusalem no longer go to work. Some have been beaten. The army can stop anyone and check mobile phone; if they find a song about Palestine or a post about Gaza, they can confiscate the device, beat and arrest the person.

It feels as though people are living in a military base. In several locations, cement blocks have been placed at the exits of Palestinian neighbourhoods. 

Armed groups of settlers and private militia forces can stop anyone on the streets if the person looks Palestinian.

People don’t feel safe speaking their own language anymore. Palestinian friends in the streets will speak Hebrew or English; they don’t dare to speak Arabic in public. Many people have been fired or suspended from their jobs just for showing solidarity with Gaza.

There are two million Palestinian citizens of Israel. On Tuesday, Israel’s police chief, Kobi Shabtai said, “Anyone who wants to identify with Gaza is welcome – I’ll put them on buses that will send them there.”

People are terrified they could be physically attacked at any time. Extremist Israelis are urging others to kill their Arab neighbours, including women, children and babies. People have found their photos and other details posted on social media groups that have been established to target Palestinians. It is a collective call for revenge.

The speed at which this fascism has spread through the country is stunning. People have always believed there is a common space where Israelis and Palestinians can come together and work towards peace. But the transformation in recent days has been overwhelming. People who once described themselves as Israeli leftists are now calling to wipe out Gaza.

It feels as though the whole state is now baying for genocide. This is the type of language one hear from politicians, celebrities, academics and ordinary people.

Many feel that Israel is working towards a second Nakba – and the world is doing nothing to stop it. Israelis are crossing red lines and using the current situation to promote apartheid, ethnic cleansing and a second Nakba.

Across the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, at least 69 Palestinians have been killed in the past 13 days. Palestinians are being attacked by settlers; the police and army do nothing to protect them. Instead, Palestinians face mass arrests if they dare to show support for Gaza.

In Gaza, more than 4,000 people have been killed in Israel’s bombardment – including more than 1,500 children – while thousands more have been injured. Gaza City has been destroyed. People are struggling to meet their basic needs: water, electricity and medical care. Pregnant mothers are in crisis. Children are being left in hospitals with no one to pick them up, because their parents have been killed.

 

US growth a puzzle for policymakers

US economic growth, still racing at a potentially inflationary pace as other key parts of the world slow, could pose global risks if it forces Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates higher than currently expected. The longer the US economy outperforms, the more Fed officials wonder if they understand what's happening.

The Fed's aggressive rate increases last year had the potential to stress the global financial system as the US dollar soared, but the impact was muted by largely synchronized central bank rate hikes and other actions taken by monetary authorities to prevent widespread dollar funding problems for companies and offset the impact of weakening currencies.

Now Brazil, Chile and China have begun cutting interest rates, with others expected to follow, actions that international officials and central bankers at last week's Jackson Hole conference said are largely tuned to an expectation the Fed won't raise its rate more than an additional quarter percentage point.

While US inflation has fallen and policymakers largely agree they are nearing the end of rate hikes, economic growth has remained unexpectedly strong, something Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in remarks on Friday could potentially lead progress on inflation to stall and trigger a central bank response.

That sort of policy shock, at a moment of US economic divergence with the rest of the world, could have significant ripple effects.

"If we get to a point where there is a need for ... doing more than what's already priced in, at some point markets might start getting nervous ... Then you see a big increase in the risk premia in different asset classes including emerging markets, including the rest of the world," said International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. "The risk of a financial tightening, a very sharp financial tightening, I think we cannot rule that out."

After the pandemic shock and the inflationary rebound that had most countries raising rates together, it's normal now for policies to diverge, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters on the sidelines of the Jackson Hole conference on Saturday.

"The economy is a global economy, right? It's an interconnected economy," Mester said. "What we do with our policy - if we can get back to 2% in a timely way, in a sustainable way, if we have a strong labor market - that's good for the global economy."

Fed policymakers will deliver a crucial update to their economic outlook at the 19-20 September meeting, when they are expected to leave their policy rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%.

Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data.

US gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. US GDP expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate in the second quarter, and some estimates put the current quarter's pace at more than twice that.

The contrast with other key global economies is sharp. The euro area grew at an annualized 0.3% in the second quarter, essentially stall speed. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted after the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, the outlook was for a euro-area recession, and a potentially deep one in parts of it.

"We expected all that to be a lot worse. It has turned out to be much more robust, much more resilient," Lagarde said.

U.S. fiscal policy is driving some of the difference with $6 trillion in pandemic-era aid still bolstering consumer spending. A recent investment push from the Biden administration is supporting manufacturing and construction.

China may also play a role, economists say. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.

But, Citigroup Chief Economist Nathan Sheets said, "When you hear economists give you three or four reasons for something, that's usually because we really don't know."

High utilization driving VLCC rate volatility

According to argus Longer voyages and limited vessel availability have increased volatility this year in very large crude carrier (VLCC) chartering costs.

Daily time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings for the vessels, which carry around 2 million barrel oil, mostly on routes to China, have fluctuated considerably this year because of stretched supply.

More vessels on long-haul voyages from the Atlantic to east Asia has increased the time VLCCs have spent carrying oil this year and limited the availability of the vessels, meaning small regional changes in vessel supply have had outsized effects on freight levels.

The number of laden vessels has stayed considerably above the number of vessels in ballast, while TCE earnings on the key Bonny to Ningbo route for a scrubber-fitted VLCC have fluctuated by as much as US$80,000/day.

VLCCs loaded more crude west of the Suez Canal in April this year than at any time since January 2021, according to data from Vortexa. Voyages from Bonny in Nigeria to Ningbo, China are around 34 days, as compared to less than 20 days for Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia to Ningbo, meaning more vessels were occupied for longer, reducing availability. Voyages from the US Gulf or Brazil to China take around 53 and 38 days, respectively.

Interest from Asian buyers in Atlantic basin cargoes increased because of favourable pricing and Saudi production cuts hitting demand for ships in the Mideast Gulf.

The availability of VLCCs has also been impacted by changes in trade flows stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. More VLCCs are occupied on Atlantic voyages because of increased flows of US Gulf, Brazilian and West African oil to Europe to replace sanctioned Russian grades.

Historically these trades were mostly done by smaller Suezmax vessels. Some VLCCs going into the so-called dark fleet involved in transporting Russian oil has also probably meant fewer VLCCs for mainstream trades. Switching between Russian and non-Russian can also contribute to volatility in freight levels as the apparent supply of vessels can change quickly.

Despite a recent downward trend, VLCC earnings are likely to stay high and volatile with the Saudi cuts extended into August and very few new VLCCs joining the global fleet.

Six new VLCCs are on order for delivery this year, three are on order for 2025, 10 for 2026, and just two for 2027, according to data from shipbroker Braemar.

Higher newbuilding prices, full shipyards and uncertainty over future fuels and environmental regulations has kept new tanker orders low, although higher earnings are beginning to encourage a rise in ordering.

 

Iraq launches road and rail project to link Asia and Europe

Iraq has launched a US$17 billion project on Saturday to link a major commodities port on its southern coast by rail and roads to the border with Turkey, in a move designed to transform the country's economy after decades of war and crisis.

The Development Road aims to tie the Grand Faw Port in Iraq's oil-rich south to Turkey, turning the country into a transit hub by shortening travel time between Asia and Europe in a bid to rival the Suez Canal.

"The Development Road is not just a road to move goods or passengers. This road opens the door to development of vast areas of Iraq," Farhan al-Fartousi, director general of the General Company for Ports of Iraq, told Reuters.

Iraq's government envisions high-speed trains moving goods and passengers at up to 300 kilometres (186.41 miles) per hour, links to local industry hubs and an energy component that could include oil and gas pipelines.

It would mark a significant departure from the country's existing aged transport network.

Iraq's train service currently operates a handful of lines, including slow oil freight and a single overnight passenger train that trundles from Baghdad to Basra, taking 10 to 12 hours to cover 500 kilometres.

The Grand Faw Port, which was devised over a decade ago, is halfway to completion, Fartousi said.

Passenger transport between Iraq and Europe harkens back to grand plans at the turn of the 20th century to create a Baghdad to Berlin express.

"We will make this line active again and tie it to other countries," Fartousi said, noting plans to ferry tourists and pilgrims to Shiite holy sites in Iraq and Mecca in Saudi Arabia for the Haj pilgrimage.

The project was announced on Saturday at a conference aimed at courting Arab interest, including from Arab Gulf states, Syria and Jordan. A senior government aide said regional investment was on the table.

Promises of development are long-standing in Iraq but infrastructure remains decrepit even as the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani makes a push to rebuild roads and bridges.

But officials say the Development Road is based on something new: a period of relative stability since late last year that they hope can be maintained.

If work starts early next year, the project would be completed in 2029, Fartousi said.

"Even if Iraq was absent for a year or two or a decade or two, it must return one day or another. Hopefully these days are the beginning of the return of Iraq," he said.

Al Quds Day commemorated in India

People in Mumbai (India) commemorated Yaum Al Quds on April 21, 2023, which is held annually on the last Friday of the Holy month of Ramadan. The event is an opportunity to speak out against oppression around the world, particularly the occupation of Palestine.

Large crowds gathered in various parts of the city to participate in the event, with many women joining the rallies. One rally took place from Khoja Masjid to Kesar Baug Hall in the Dongri area, while another took place from Zaib Palace to Chai Coffee in Andheri.

At the Haidery Jama Masjid in Mira Road, participants chanted slogans against the Israeli apartheid regime and its supporters in the US and UK.

Ehsan Haider Raza, a participant from Mira Road, expressed concern about the ongoing genocide of Palestinians and called on governments around the world to take notice and take action against it.

“The ongoing genocide of Palestinians is a cause of concern for the global community. Governments from around the world need to sit up, take notice of the daily killings taking place in occupied-Palestine,” he said.

A participant from Andheri, who preferred to remain anonymous, criticized the hypocrisy of the governments in the US and Europe, saying that if they can take a stand against the occupation of Ukraine by Russia, they should also take a similar stand against the 75-year occupation of Palestinian land.

Overall, the Yaum Al Quds event in Mumbai served as a platform for people to speak out against oppression and show solidarity with the people of Palestine.

 

The World Beyond Ukraine

“Ukraine has united the world,” declared Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a speech on the first anniversary of the start of the war with Russia. The war may have united the West, but it has left the world divided. And that rift will only widen if Western countries fail to address its root causes.

The traditional transatlantic alliance of European and North American countries has mobilized in unprecedented fashion for a protracted conflict in Ukraine. It has offered extensive humanitarian support for people inside Ukraine and for Ukrainian refugees. And it is preparing for what will be a massive rebuilding job after the war. But outside Europe and North America, the defense of Ukraine is not on top of agenda.

Few governments endorse the brazen Russian invasion, yet many remain unpersuaded by the West’s insistence that the struggle for freedom and democracy in Ukraine is also theirs.

As French President Emmanuel Macron said at the Munich Security Conference in February, “I am struck by how we have lost the trust of the global South.” He is right. Western conviction about the war and its importance is matched elsewhere by skepticism at best and outright disdain at worst.

The gap between the West and the rest goes beyond the rights and wrongs of the war. Instead, it is the product of deep frustration—anger, in truth—about the Western-led mismanagement of globalization since the end of the Cold War.

The concerted Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has thrown into sharp relief the occasions when the West violated its own rules or when it was conspicuously missing in action in tackling global problems.

Such arguments can seem beside the point in light of the daily brutality meted out by Russian forces in Ukraine. But Western leaders should address them, not dismiss them. The gulf in perspectives is dangerous for a world facing enormous global risks. And it threatens the renewal of a rules-based order that reflects a new, multipolar balance of power in the world.

The Russian invasion has produced remarkable unity and action from the liberal democratic world. Western countries have coordinated an extensive slate of economic sanctions targeting Russia. European states have increasingly aligned their climate policies on decarbonization with national security-related commitments to end their dependence on Russian oil and gas.

Western governments have rallied to support Ukraine with enormous shipments of military aid. Finland and Sweden aim to be soon admitted to NATO.

Europe has adopted a welcoming policy toward the eight million Ukrainian refugees within its borders.

All these efforts have been advocated by a US administration that has been sure-footed in partnering with European allies and others.

The squabbles over Afghanistan and the AUKUS security partnership (a 2021 deal struck by Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States that irked France) seem a long time ago.

Many in the West have been surprised at this turn of events. Clearly, so was the Kremlin, which imagined that its invasion would not provoke a strong and determined Western response. The West’s unity and commitment are not matched elsewhere.

At the beginning of the war, the UN General Assembly voted 141 to 5, with 47 absences or abstentions, to condemn the Russian invasion. But that result flattered to deceive.

“Most non-European countries that voted to deplore Russia’s aggression last March did not follow up with sanctions. Doing the right thing at the UN can be an alibi for not doing much about the war in the real world.”

In a series of UN votes since the war started, around 40 countries representing nearly 50% of the world’s population have regularly abstained or voted against motions condemning the Russian invasion.

Fifty-eight countries abstained from a vote, in April 2022, to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, two-thirds of the world’s population lives in countries that are officially neutral or supportive of Russia. These countries do not form some kind of axis of autocracy; they include several notable democracies, such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa.

Much of the fence-sitting is not driven by disagreements over the conflict in Ukraine but is instead a symptom of a wider syndrome, anger at perceived Western double standards and frustration at stalled reform efforts in the international system.

The distinguished Indian diplomat Shivshankar Menon put the point sharply in Foreign Affairs earlier this year when he wrote, “Alienated and resentful, many developing countries see the war in Ukraine and the West’s rivalry with China as distracting from urgent issues such as debt, climate change, and the effects of the pandemic.”

Courtesy: Foreign Affairs

 

Rubio responds to Macron’s call to break away from United States

Sen. Marco Rubio has condemned French President Emanuel Macron for appearing to advocate that Europe should distance itself from the United States over a possible Chinese military aggression against Taiwan.

In a roughly two-minute video posted on Twitter Sunday, Rubio asked whether Macron speaks for all of Europe when he suggested that the EU should not pick sides between the United States and China over Taiwan.

Further arguing European nations should break away from the United States and avoid getting involved in crises that are not ours to build Europe’s strategic autonomy concept.

While returning from a three-day state visit to China after meeting with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping, Macron told Politico during an interview that the EU needs to reduce its US reliance and avoid becoming America’s followers.

Responding to Macron’s interview, Rubio said that Europe—particularly France—has relied heavily on the United States for decades for their defense.

“This is a good moment for us to ask Europe Does Macron speak for all of Europe, is Macron now the head of Europe, is he now the most powerful leader in Europe? Rubio questioned, then noting if that were the case, “There are some things that have to change.”

“In fact, when Macron tried to play global superpower and sent troops to North Africa to fight terrorists, he couldn’t even get his own troops there,” he added. “We had to fly them there, and we had to fly them back; he couldn’t even get his own troops there.”

“So, if they’re gonna break off on their own and follow Macron’s lead, that’s going to save us a lot of money,” the Florida lawmaker continued.

Rubio also addressed the United States military assistance to Ukraine, saying Americans have spent a lot of our taxpayer money on the European conflict.

He also stressed that he supports the cause because he believes it’s in the national interests of the United States to be allies to our allies.

“But, if our allies’ position—if, in fact, Macron speaks for all of Europe, and their position now is they’re not gonna pick sides between the US and China over Taiwan—maybe we shouldn’t be picking sides either. Maybe we should basically say we’re gonna focus on Taiwan and the threats China poses, and you guys handle Ukraine and Europe,” Rubio said.

“So, we need to find out, does Macron speak for Macron, or does Macron speak for Europe?” he added. “And we need to get the answer to that pretty quickly because China is very excited about what he said.”

 

French approach towards China not in line with the United States

High-profile diplomatic meetings on opposite sides of the world are underscoring growing tensions between the United States and Europe in how to engage with China.

French President Emmanuel Macron, on a three-day trip to China, is billing his outreach as an effort to recruit Chinese President Xi Jinping to play a major role in building peace between Ukraine and Russia, with an eye on reining in Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The summit comes as Chinese officials have warned of consequences and retaliation in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hosting Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen in California.

McCarthy, speaking to reporters following his meeting with Tsai, said he hoped Macron asked Xi not to fund Russia’s war in Ukraine and reiterated that democracy makes the world safer and stronger.

“I hope he delivers a message that Americans meeting with President Tsai is positive for the same aspect that he is meeting with President Xi,” he said. 

The dueling diplomatic summits highlight the gap between the United States and Europe over how to deal with China.

While the Biden administration and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle describe Xi as working to reshape the world in the view of China’s authoritarian model, European leaders are less unified on the risks versus rewards of close ties with Beijing.

The Élysée Palace said Macron and President Biden, in a call ahead of the French leader’s trip, discussed a common desire to engage China to accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine and to participate in building a lasting peace in the region.

The administration was more reserved in its description of the conversation. Two-line readout from the White House simply stated that Biden and Macron talked about the French president’s upcoming travel and reiterated support for Ukraine. 

Macron’s visit, accompanied by dozens of business officials, highlights France’s focus on maintaining, if not strengthening, economic ties to China, even as the US has for months warned that Beijing is considering sending weapons to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine.

“I am convinced that China has a major role to play in building peace. This is what I have come to discuss, to move forward on,” Macron tweeted on Thursday. “With President Xi Jinping, we will also talk about our businesses, the climate and biodiversity, and food security.”

Xi has sought to portray himself as a global peacemaker. Alongside Macron on Thursday in Beijing, he said China is committed to facilitating peace talks and a settlement on the Ukraine crisis, affirmed that a nuclear war should never be fought, and that legitimate security concerns of all parties should be taken into account.

French officials say they do not see a conflict of interest between maintaining trade ties with China while trying to engage Xi to act more responsibly.

“Talking with China and having direct engaging discussions doesn’t mean you erase the economic ties,” one French diplomat told The Hill.

“Personal engagement is even more important with China, after three years of pandemic, and considering the nature of the regime,” the diplomat continued, a reference to Xi’s near total power over the state. 

How Europe, US differ on China

But critics say that Macron’s coterie of business executives undermines any effort to push Xi to get tough on Russia. 

“In a situation where we’re trying to talk strategy with the Chinese, trying to get them to commit not to deliver weapons to Russia, bringing along so many business people with all deals in their minds, and Euro signs in their pupils, is the wrong signal,” said Roland Freudenstein, vice president and head of GLOBSEC Brussels, a think tank based in Slovakia. “It means that you come with a carrot, but you don’t come with a stick, and any talk of the stick is not valid at that moment.” 

Other experts though said that Macron should not be made into a boogeyman from this visit to China, considering that Europe has business interests to maintain in China.

“Both the U.S. and Europe have this new sort of idea that China is a rival, a partner, and a competitor. For the U.S., the ordering is probably rival first, then competitor, then partner. For Europe, that used to be the other way around,” said Matthias Matthijs, European expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The Europeans are slowly moving closer to the American line on China, but the US has also moved very aggressively in a different direction than, say, it was during the Obama administration, and the Europeans aren’t quite there yet because they have no reason to be,” added Matthijs, also a professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

Biden and Xi have not spoken since they met in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 Summit in November 2022, but Biden said he would talk to Xi in the wake of the Chinese spy balloon traversing the United States in February. 

When asked about the phone call between Biden and Macron, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Wednesday declined to provide further details but said the president was “grateful” that Macron called him before his trip to Beijing.

Biggest financial crises of last four decades

Markets have experienced massive upheaval in the last month, prompted in part by two of the three largest banking failures in US history while Swiss lender Credit Suisse was bought by rival UBS Group AG in a merger engineered by Swiss regulators.

Fears of banking contagion remain, and investors are worried that global economies will suffer if the effects of higher interest rates torpedo more lenders. Here is a rundown of some of the biggest financial crises in the last 40 years:

US SAVINGS AND LOAN CRISIS

Over 1,000 savings and loan (S&L) institutions were wiped out in the crisis that unfolded throughout the 1980s, resulting in up to US$124 billion in costs to taxpayers. The upheaval was rooted in the unsound real estate and commercial loans made by S&Ls after the United States removed interest-rate caps on their loans and deposits, which allowed them to take on more risk.

JUNK BOND CRASH

After nearly a decade of supercharged growth, the junk bond market slumped in the late 1980s following a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Michael Milken had helped popularize the financial instrument, with many using it as a way of funding leveraged buyouts. But supply eventually outpaced demand, and the market tanked. Milken was charged with securities and reporting violations. He paid a US$200 million fine and served a 22-month sentence in jail.

MEXICAN PESO CRISIS

In a surprise move in December 1994, Mexico devalued its currency, the peso, after the country's current account deficit grew and its international reserves declined. The country ended up getting external financial support from the International Monetary Fund and a US$50 billion bailout from the United States.

ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS

A massive outflow of capital from Asian economies in the mid-to-late 1990s put pressure on the currencies in the region, necessitating government support. The crisis kicked off in Thailand, where authorities had to devalue the Thai baht after months of trying to defend the currency's peg to the dollar drained its forex reserves. The contagion soon spread to other markets in Asia including Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia. Global bodies, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, had to step in with rescue packages amounting to more than $100 billion for the economies.

LONG TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (LTCM)

The highly leveraged US hedge fund lost more than US$4 billion in a span of a few months in 1998 following the Asian crisis and a subsequent financial crisis in Russia. The fund had a huge exposure to Russian government bonds, and took major losses after Russia defaulted on its debt and devalued its currency. The New York Federal Reserve Bank helped broker a US$3.5 billion private-sector bailout for LTCM and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in successive months.

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008

The biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression was rooted in risky loans to shaky borrowers, which started to lose value after central banks raised interest rates in the period leading up to the crisis. Many companies had taken big positions in highly leveraged mortgage bonds that had proliferated in previous years. The crisis led to the collapse of some storied Wall Street giants including Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, both of whom had large positions in mortgage securities. The debacle also engulfed insurance giant American International Group, which needed a US$180 billion bailout. The US government closed Washington Mutual, in what was largest-ever failure of a US bank. The "Great Recession" that resulted was the worst economic downturn in 70 years.

EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS

Spurred by the 2008 financial crisis, surging debt at some of the major European economies led to a loss of confidence in the region's businesses. Greece was among the hardest hit as its primary industries of shipping and tourism were economically sensitive. It was the first to be bailed out by other euro zone economies. Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus also were rescued from default, and unemployment surged, particularly in the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea.

 

 

 

 

 

US and Europe losing battle against Russia

The crisis of the power of United States has begun. Its economy is tipping over, and Western financial markets are quietly panicking. Imperiled by rising interest rates, mortgage-backed securities and US Treasuries are losing their value. The market’s proverbial vibes —feelings, emotions, beliefs, and psychological penchants—suggest a dark turn is underway inside the US economy.

The US power is measured by its military capability as well as economic potential and performance. There is growing realization that the US and European military-industrial capacity cannot keep up with Ukrainian demands for ammunition and equipment. It is an ominous signal sent during the proxy war that Washington insists its Ukrainian surrogate is winning.

Russian economy of force operations in southern Ukraine appear to have successfully ground down attacking Ukrainian forces with the minimal expenditure of Russian lives and resources. While Russia’s implementation of attrition warfare worked brilliantly, Russia mobilized its reserves of men and equipment to field a force that is several magnitudes larger and significantly more lethal than it was a year ago.

Russia’s massive arsenal of artillery systems including rockets, missiles, and drones linked to overhead surveillance platforms converted Ukrainian soldiers fighting to retain the northern edge of the Donbas into pop-up targets. How many Ukrainian soldiers have died is unknown, but one recent estimate wagers between 150,000-200,000 Ukrainians have been killed in action since the war began, while another estimates about 250,000.

Given the glaring weakness of NATO members’ ground, air, and air defense forces, an unwanted war with Russia could easily bring hundreds of thousands of Russian Troops to the Polish border, NATO’s Eastern Frontier. This is not an outcome Washington promised its European allies, but it’s now a real possibility.

In contrast to the Soviet Union’s hamfisted and ideologically driven foreign policymaking and execution, contemporary Russia has skillfully cultivated support for its cause in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.

The fact that the West’s economic sanctions damaged the US and European economies while turning the Russian ruble into one of the international system’s strongest currencies has hardly enhanced Washington’s global standing.

Biden’s policy of forcibly pushing NATO to Russia’s borders forged a strong commonality of security and trade interests between Moscow and Beijing that is attracting strategic partners in South Asia like India, and partners like Brazil in Latin America. The global economic implications for the emerging Russo-Chinese axis and their planned industrial revolution for some 3.9 billion people in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are profound.

Washington’s military strategy to weaken, isolate, or even destroy Russia is a colossal failure and the failure puts Washington’s proxy war with Russia on a truly dangerous path. To press on, undeterred in the face of Ukraine’s descent into oblivion, ignores three metastasizing threats:

1. Persistently high inflation and rising interest rates that signal economic weakness. (The first American bank failure since 2020 is a reminder of US financial fragility.)

2. The threat to stability and prosperity inside European societies already reeling from several waves of unwanted refugees/migrants.

3. The threat of a wider European war.

Inside presidential administrations, there are always competing factions urging the president to adopt a particular course of action. Observers on the outside seldom know with certainty which faction exerts the most influence, but there are figures in the Biden administration seeking an off-ramp from involvement in Ukraine.

Even Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a rabid supporter of the proxy war with Moscow, recognizes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s demand that the West help him recapture Crimea is a red line for Putin that might lead to a dramatic escalation from Moscow.

Backing down from the Biden administration’s malignant and asinine demands for a humiliating Russian withdrawal from eastern Ukraine before peace talks can convene is a step Washington refuses to take. Yet it must be taken.

The higher interest rates rise, and the more Washington spends at home and abroad to prosecute the war in Ukraine, the closer American society moves toward internal political and social turmoil. These are dangerous conditions for any republic.

From all the wreckage and confusion of the last two years, there emerges one undeniable truth. Most Americans are right to be distrustful of and dissatisfied with their government. President Biden comes across as a cardboard cut-out, a stand-in for ideological fanatics in his administration, people that see executive power as the means to silence political opposition and retain permanent control of the federal government.

Americans are not fools. They know that members of Congress flagrantly trade stocks based on inside information, creating conflicts of interest that would land most citizens in jail. They also know that since 1965 Washington led them into a series of failed military interventions that severely weakened American political, economic, and military power.

Far too many Americans believe they have had no real national leadership since January 21, 2021. It is high time the Biden administration found an off-ramp designed to extricate Washington DC, from its proxy Ukrainian war against Russia.

It will not be easy. Liberal internationalism or, in its modern guise, moralizing globalism, makes prudent diplomacy arduous, but now is the time. In Eastern Europe, the spring rains present both Russian and Ukrainian ground forces with a sea of mud that severely impedes movement. But the Russian High Command is preparing to ensure that when the ground dries and Russian ground forces attack, the operations will achieve an unambiguous decision, making it clear that Washington and its supporters have no chance to rescue the dying regime in Kiev. From then on, negotiations will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.

 

Central banks bought the most gold in 2022

Central banks around the world added a whopping 1,136 tons of gold worth some US$70 billion to their stockpiles in 2022, by far the most of any year since 1967, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday.

The data underlines a shift in attitudes to gold since the 1990s and 2000s, when central banks, particularly those in Western Europe that own a lot of bullion, sold hundreds of tons a year.

Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, European banks stopped selling and a growing number of emerging economies such as Russia, Turkey and India have bought.

Buying dipped during the coronavirus pandemic but accelerated in the second half of 2022, with central banks purchasing 862 tons between July and December 2022, according to the WGC.

Banks including those of Turkey, China, Egypt and Qatar said they bought gold last year. But around two-thirds of the gold bought by central banks last year was not reported publicly, the WGC said.

Banks that have not regularly published information about changes in their gold stockpiles include those of China and Russia.

"Central bank buying in 2023 is unlikely to match 2022 levels," the WGC said.

"Lower total reserves may constrain the capacity to add to existing allocations. But lagged reporting by some central banks means that we need to apply a high degree of uncertainty to our expectations, predominantly to the upside."

The central bank purchases took total gold global gold demand last year to 4,741 tons, up 18% from 2021 and the highest for any year since 2011.

 

 

Europe: Mild winter shifts LNG trades

LNG markets continue to surprise. At the beginning of 2023, the big themes were that European imports would continue to drive seaborne ton-miles higher, supplemented by a resumption of imports into China as economic activity resumes.

In a mid-January webinar presentation by Kristen Holmquist, the lead data analyst at shipbroker and LNG consultancy Poten & Partners, these observations were buttressed by deep underlying analytics.

Any predictions of what might happen are highly nuanced, and subject to a variety of “what-if?” considerations. But Poten’s analytical team suggests that overall seaborne LNG tonnages might rise to around 415 million tons in 2023, up around 20 million tons from 2022.

A major contributor to this uptick will be the US, with the damaged Freeport LNG facility, in the US Gulf (capable of exporting 1.0 - 1.3 million tons/month), to come back online during Q12023, Poten expects. Others are more cautious; Rystad Energy said that a full ramp-up might not occur until mid-2023.

The big demand-side driver of all these numbers is Europe; in Holmquist’s words, “Europe is expected to be in good shape at the end of the winter.” So far, the 2022-23 Winter has been warmer than anticipated, leading to lower gas import demand.

However, pipeline imports from Russia have been down dramatically, with further decreases anticipated during 2023. A big part of the demand picture is driven by imports of LNG in advance of the Winter season.

Holmquist said that the storage buildup during 2022 “…was higher than we expected…” and she added that, so far during the warmer than normal winter months, the levels of gas in storage “…have come down by less than we expected.” The result is that storage is at historically high levels.

China’s economic activity is expected to rebound in 2023, and so the country is also expected to account for 6 million tons of additional demand in 2023 as compared to 2022, though it was noted that anticipated seaborn import levels are still 9.5 million tons below 2021’s 80 million tons.

What does all this mean for LNG shipping? Seaborne rate dynamics were not covered explicitly in the Poten webinar, but it’s possible to offer some demand-side observations on this question. Though much of the gas coming out of the US is sold under term contracts, US exports are often shipped on an “FOB” basis- meaning that purchasers can direct cargoes to either Europe or Asia.

One important feature of the markets has been the sharp drop in European prices as measured by the TTF indicator; after seeing elevated levels for much of 2022, they are now below the Asian JKM numeraire.  

So, at least for this increment of LNG shipping, with the US anticipated to export up to 90 million tons in 2023, we may see a ton-mile increase. With higher prices in Asia, more cargo flows to Asia might balance what may be a lower demand for cargoes bound for Europe with its reduced need to fill up storage in advance of the 2023-24 gas season”, which starts in October.

Anecdotally, analysts at Rystad said that US exports to Asia rose 38% in the first half of January, while gas shipments to Europe slid by 22% during the same time period. They add, “While we do not anticipate an immediate diversion of cargoes towards Asia, with the expected rebound of China gas demand during the year, Europe and Asia markets will undoubtedly see increased competition for available LNG supplies.”

Courtesy Seatrade Maritime News

 

Coal price in Europe jumps on strikes at South African port

The price of importing coal to Europe’s largest ports rose the most since May as a strike in South Africa curtails shipments of the fuel during the middle of an energy crisis.

“The action by Transnet SOC employees is lasting longer than anticipated and has started to take a serious toll on exports,” said Alex Claude, Chief Executive Officer of DBX Commodities in London.

Coal flows out of South Africa last week were 600,000 tons, the lowest in more than a year, he said.

South Africa’s troubles dovetail with those of European power producers, who are trying to stock up on coal ahead of winter to make up for dwindling supplies of natural gas from Russia.

Traders are relying increasingly on South Africa because European Union sanctions ban purchases from Russia, long the continent’s largest source.

Month-ahead European coal futures rose as much as 11%. They’re now trading at about US$290 per ton, rebounding from an almost seven-month low on October 10, 2022. The jump also may be driven by traders covering shorts or profit-taking after a long decline, Claude said.

The Transnet strike also is hobbling iron ore exports as staff refuse to work unless the company raises their pay. Negotiations are set to continue Wednesday.

Coal exports to Europe from a consortium that owns the Richards Bay Coal Terminal in South Africa increased to 4.1 million tons in the first half of 2022, as compared to 500,000 tons a year earlier, Thungela Resources Chief Financial Officer Deon Smith said in August.