Philippines: US proxy in South China Sea region

Nothing better captures the Philippines' geostrategic indispensability than the unfolding drama over the deployment of the US Typhon missile system to the Southeast Asian nation.

The state-of-the-art midrange capability (MRC) weapons system, which has a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, is crucial to deterring any future Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Beijing has repeatedly warned Manila against hosting such platforms, thus raising the risk of a "Cuban missile crisis" style showdown in the future.

Richard Heydarian says, it is a geopolitical risk well worth taking if it allows the Southeast Asian nation to accelerate its own military modernization and, more broadly, its emergence as an increasingly capable and pivotal player in the Indo-Pacific.

Manila is not shying away from a potential diplomatic crisis over hosting the missile system. If anything, top Philippine officials are also exploring not just deployment but the acquisition of Typhons and other high-end American weapons system.

China: Largest in maritime trade

Judging by the cargo flowing through Chinese maritime ports, the world’s export king still reigns despite efforts by the United States and Europe to diversify their trading relations.

That’s among the takeaways in the One Hundred Ports 2024 report this week from Lloyd’s List. China’s share of container volumes at the biggest 100 seaports globally rose to 41.3% last year, from 40.2% a year earlier, ten years ago the figure stood at 36.6%.

In a distant second place was the rest of Asia, which as a region had a 26.6% share, North America came in with 7.6% and Europe with 7.3%.

Linton Nightingale, deputy editor with Lloyd’s List, said China’s position as the Factory to the World “shows little sign of diminishing anytime soon.”

“Yes, shippers and manufacturers are looking to other countries to source goods in a bid to diversify supply chains — a trend that has accelerated off the back of the pandemic which caused a rethink on Chinese reliance,” he said. “But as our data shows, the world continues to rely heavily on its exports.”

Other key points from the report:

Of the world’s top 10 ports, measured by annual container throughput, seven are in China

The steepest climber on the list was China’s Jiaxing, which jumped 17 places to 58th

Rotterdam, a top-10 finisher in last year’s ranking, fell to 12th

Dubai climbed two spots to No. 9

The two biggest US ports each slipped two places — Los Angeles to No. 18 and Long Beach to 21st

In a world where trade is a key battlefield for opposing economic powers, the reason why rankings matter goes beyond bragging rights. Ports are on the front lines of three major transformations: protectionism, digitization and de-carbonization.

As a result, they’re neglected no more and stand to benefit from more than US$200 billion in investments annually over the next decade, according estimates reported in ‘Bloomberg’s Big Take’. The story zooms in on eight of the world’s most dynamic ports, each trying to adapt to new geopolitical and business realities.

“Trade flows are changing and are growing more complex as shippers redirect cargoes to skirt mounting geopolitical tensions,” Nightingale said.

In China’s case, “the trade war with US is the most disruptive,” he said. “However, Chinese goods are still entering the US and often via other emerging economies, whether Mexico, Vietnam or India, to circumvent tariffs.”

Those alternative routes are among the reasons that China is withstanding tariffs, export controls and other measures wielded by the US and Europe, and may continue to do so as it expands into more advanced manufacturing.

According to a new research report from Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, “China is largely undiminished as an industrial and manufacturing powerhouse.”

“Subsidies appear to be fueling a shift away from products that helped create the Chinese miracle of the 1990s and 2000s, like textiles and toys, into higher value-added products like computers and electric vehicles, driven by domestic Chinese firms,” Lazard’s report said.

“Geopolitical tension and economic struggles must therefore be weighed against the reality that China is still the largest global exporter of goods and may succeed in its pivot to more high-tech products.”

 

China: Emerging Naval Might

China’s naval expansion and bolstering of its shipbuilding capabilities may give the PLA a strategic edge in a potential conflict, including the “hellscape strategy” floated recently by the United States.

Raymond Kuo, director of the Rand Corporation’s Taiwan Initiative, said that China, alongside Japan and South Korea, has the “largest shipbuilding industry in the world” and can produce completed hulls at a faster rate than the US.

While American ships tend to be more complex and have greater displacement … China’s ability to relatively rapidly produce naval ships means that it can reconstitute any combat losses more quickly than the United States can, he said.

“The PLA have an additional advantage in that any conflict over, say, Taiwan or the South China Sea would be much closer to their shores.”

According to an analysis of satellite imagery published by the Paris-based Naval News in late May, China’s 10th Type 055 destroyer – its most advanced warship and prime aircraft carrier escort – was recently launched by naval builder Dalian Shipbuilding.

Since the first Type 055 was commissioned in 2020, the first batch of eight is in service and construction of the second batch is well under way, with the ninth reportedly launched late last year.

The Naval News said the shipbuilder has also launched five Type 052 destroyers, all assembled in a single large dry dock, while the same yard was also responsible for modernization work on the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier, until the middle of April.

A report earlier this month from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies said China’s “massive shipbuilding industry would provide a strategic advantage in a war that stretches beyond a few weeks”.

According to the report, China would be able to repair damaged vessels or construct replacements much faster than the US, “which continues to face a significant maintenance backlog”.

The report noted that the US would probably be unable to quickly construct many new ships or to repair damaged fighting ships in a great power conflict.

The launch of China’s new destroyer coincided with a ramping up of US efforts to develop a drone strategy to create what Admiral Samuel Paparo described this month as a “hellscape” in the Taiwan Strait to counter any mainland attack on the island.

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. Like most countries, the US does not recognize Taipei’s government but is committed to supplying arms for the island’s defence.

Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said the US plans to use a large, lethal drone force to distract China’s military and buy time for the US to defend Taiwan in the case of an attack.

But Washington would have “a lot of work to do” before it could carry out the strategy, including ramping up military stockpiles and increasing production of drone swarms, said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“One shouldn’t forget that you still need to neutralise the Chinese ability to project force on Taiwan … you have to even take out the Chinese ability to sustain the war,” he said.

“For example, you would have to, say, destroy the shipyards if necessary. There will still [be a requirement for] the US to invest in other force projection capabilities, like long-range precision-guided munitions – for example, cruise missiles.”

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said a Taiwan contingency would depend in part on whether the US reverses its declining shipbuilding capability.

The US Naval Institute said in 2021 that the US has just seven shipyards that can build large warships, while China has more than 20, along with dozens of commercial facilities that dwarf the largest US shipyards in size and throughput.

According to Davis, it’s “conceivable” that a larger, more powerful and well armed PLA Navy could allow China to win a prolonged conflict, simply through its “quantitative and firepower advantage”.

“And geography benefits China with the US having to project force across the Pacific into China’s maritime approaches,” he said.

“Also, the relative strength needs to be considered in a broader context of China’s anti-access and area denial capabilities, including land-based long-range missiles, more advanced air power, counter-space capabilities, and cyber and electromagnetic operations.”

The Type 055 destroyer – also referred to as a missile cruiser because of its size and capabilities – is 180 metres in length with a beam of 20 metres and has a displacement of around 13,000 tons at full load.

It features 112 vertical launch system cells – an advanced system for holding and firing missiles on mobile naval platforms – housing the HHQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missiles and the YJ-18 anti-ship missiles.

Footage revealed in April 2022 showed a Type 055 test-firing China’s latest hypersonic anti-ship missile, the YJ-21.

According to Koh, the import and indigenization of foreign technology has made Chinese shipyards more “mature” and the increased production of Type 055 destroyers would allow the PLA Navy to deploy them with “greater regularity”.

However, he pointed out that there still remains the question of “how good they are”, with China’s ability to sustain its rapidly growing naval fleets undetermined.

“The only question is that … each of these Type 055 destroyers is also quite expensive. So the question of course arises whether China can even sustain the construction with its current economic issues.”

 

 

 

 

 

Warmongers approve US$95 billion package

The US House of Representatives on Saturday with broad bipartisan support passed a US$95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, over bitter objections from Republican hardliners, reports Reuters.

Passage of the long-awaited legislation was closely watched by US defense contractors, who are in line for huge contracts to supply equipment for Ukraine and other US partners.

The legislation now proceeds to the Democratic majority Senate, which passed a similar measure more than two months ago. US leaders from Democratic President Joe Biden to top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell had been urging embattled Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring it up for a vote.

The Senate is set to begin considering the House-passed bill on Tuesday, with some preliminary votes that afternoon. Final passage was expected sometime next week, which would clear the way for Biden to sign it into law.

The bills provide U$60.84 billion to address the conflict in Ukraine, including US$23 billion to replenish US weapons, stocks and facilities; US$26 billion for Israel, including US$9.1 billion for humanitarian needs, and US$8.12 billion for the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his thanks, saying US lawmakers moved to keep "history on the right track."

"The vital US aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger," Zelenskiy said on X.

The Biden administration is already finalizing its next assistance package for Ukraine so it can announce the new tranche of aid soon after the bill becomes law in order to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs, a White House official said.

Biden, who had urged Congress since last year to approve the additional aid to Ukraine, said in a statement, "It comes at a moment of grave urgency, with Israel facing unprecedented attacks from Iran and Ukraine under continued bombardment from Russia."

The vote on passage of the Ukraine funding was 311-112. Significantly, 112 Republicans opposed the legislation, with only 101 in support.

"Mike Johnson is a lame duck ... he's done," far-right Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene told reporters afterward.

Marjorie has been a leading opponent of helping Ukraine in its war against Russia and has taken steps that threaten to remove Johnson from office over this issue. Greene stopped short of doing so on Saturday.

During the vote, several lawmakers waved small Ukrainian flags as it became clear that element of the package was headed to passage. Johnson warned lawmakers that was a "violation of decorum."

The House's actions during a rare Saturday session put on display some cracks in what generally is solid support for Israel within Congress.

Recent months have seen progressive Democrats express anger with Israel's government and its conduct of the war in Gaza.

Saturday's vote, in which the Israel aid was passed 366-58, had 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans in opposition.

Johnson this week chose to ignore ouster threats by hardline members of his fractious 218-213 majority and push forward the measure that includes Ukraine funding as it struggles to fight off a two-year Russian invasion.

The unusual four-bill package also includes a measure that includes a threat to ban the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok and the potential transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine.

Some hardline Republicans voicing strong opposition to further Ukraine aid argued the United States can ill afford it given its rising $34 trillion national debt. They have repeatedly raised the threat of ousting Johnson, who became speaker in October after his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was ousted by party hardliners.

"It's not the perfect legislation, it's not the legislation that we would write if Republicans were in charge of both the House, the Senate, and the White House," Johnson told reporters on Friday. "This is the best possible product that we can get under these circumstances to take care of these really important obligations."

Representative Bob Good, chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, told reporters on Friday that the bills represent a "slide down into the abyss of greater fiscal crisis and America-last policies that reflect Biden and (Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and (House Democratic leader Hakeem) Jeffries, and don't reflect the American people."

But Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who carries huge influence in the party, on April 12 voiced support for Johnson and in a Thursday social media post said Ukraine's survival is important for the US.

China: Dong Jun New Defense Minister

According to media reports, China has named Dong Jun as its new defense minister, two months after his predecessor was officially sacked. Dong, a former navy commander, takes over from Li Shangfu, who was last seen in public in August.

Dong's appointment was announced by China's top legislators at a Standing Committee meeting of the National People's Congress in Beijing on Friday.

The move follows a slew of dismissals of top military officials from the country's top posts earlier this year.

As well as Li, it included the removal of Qin Gang as foreign minister in July. No reasons were given for Li or Qin's dismissals. Both had been in their posts for only seven months respectively.

Further sackings took place this week too, with nine senior military officials removed from the Standing Committee on Friday.

Three executives at state-owned missile defense firms were also removed from Beijing's top political advisory body earlier this week.

Some analysts say this could indicate that a possible wider purge has taken place, targeting senior military leaders.

Dong was made commander of the navy in August 2021. His previous roles included serving as deputy commander of the Chinese military's Southern Theatre Command. Its area of operations includes the South China Sea - a disputed area, over large parts of which China claims sovereignty.

Dong's appointment comes after military personnel from China and the United States held their first high-level talks by phone in more than a year last week.

Relations between the two nations soured in 2022 after the then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Taiwan is self-ruled, but China sees it as a breakaway province that will eventually unite with it.

In recent months, there has been a rapprochement between China and the US, with Chinese President Xi Jinping meeting his counterpart Joe Biden in California in November and agreeing to resume military communications. The two had not spoken for more than a year.

 

NATO to open Japan office for deepening Indo-Pacific engagement

Nikkei Asia reports, NATO is planning to open a liaison office in Tokyo, the first of its kind in Asia. The station will allow the military alliance to conduct periodic consultations with Japan and key partners in the region such as South Korea, Australia and New Zealand as China emerges as a new challenge, alongside its traditional focus on Russia.

NATO and Japan will also upgrade their cooperation, aiming to sign an Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP) before the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11-12. The two sides will deepen collaboration in tackling cyber threats, coordinate stances on emerging and disruptive technologies, and exchange notes on fighting disinformation.

The idea of opening a liaison office was first discussed between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during the latter's visit to Tokyo at the end of January. In mid-April, the alliance circulated a draft proposal among its 31 members.

The proposal is to open a one-person liaison office in Tokyo next year. Whether the Japanese side provides the office space or if NATO funds the station is still under negotiation. NATO has similar liaison offices at the United Nations in New York, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in Vienna, as well as in Georgia, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova and Kuwait.

In many cases the host nation offers office space for NATO. If Tokyo provides the funding for a Western military alliance to have a foothold in Japan, it would symbolize a new phase in defense cooperation.

The intent to deepen cooperation is mutual. Japan plans to create an independent mission to NATO, separating it from the Embassy in Belgium, where it is currently based. A new ambassador will be dispatched, to relieve the NATO duties of Ambassador to Belgium Masahiro Mikami. Kishida told Stoltenberg of the plans at the January meeting.

Officials hope that the NATO-Japan signing of the ITPP would create momentum leading up to the Vilnius summit. The gathering is expected to be attended by the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand -- like last year -- signaling NATO's deeper engagement with the Indo-Pacific.

Last June, Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and then-New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern attended the NATO Summit in Madrid. Known as the Asia-Pacific partners (AP4) of NATO, they held a meeting on the sidelines.

Danish Ambassador to Japan Peter Taksoe-Jensen told Nikkei Asia in a phone interview that a NATO liaison office would be the first of its kind in the Indo-Pacific and more than just symbolic. "It would be a very visible, real way to strengthen the relations between Japan and NATO," he said.

The Danish Embassy acts as the contact-point embassy of the alliance in Japan and is coordinating with the member states in Tokyo regarding NATO-Japan collaboration.

Taksoe-Jensen noted that the geopolitical landscape has changed drastically since NATO issued its previous Strategic Concept in 2010.

"At the time, Russia was considered a potential partner and there was no mention of China. In 2022, at the Madrid Summit, allied leaders decided that Russia was no longer a partner but a foe, and that there was also an acknowledgment that China's rise would and could have an impact on trans-European security," he said.

"This is why it is important for NATO to keep up relations with our partners in this region." The envoy said that the liaison office would also reach out to other important actors in the region such as India and ASEAN countries.

Taksoe-Jensen said NATO-Japan cooperation, going forward, will focus on challenges that transcend regions, such as cyber threats, disruptive technology and disinformation activities.

This cooperation, Nikkei has learned, will be formalized in the coming weeks, when NATO and Japan will launch the ITPP to lay out cooperation on fields such as cybersecurity, disinformation and space. It will be an upgrade from the Individual Partnership and Cooperation Program (IPCP) that the two sides signed in 2014.

"There will also be a look at interoperability," Taksoe-Jensen said, regarding how NATO and Japanese forces work together in different areas. But he said it was "a step too far at the moment" to consider the two sides to bolster regional deterrence together.

Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor at Keio University, said that the war in Ukraine has changed the way NATO sees China. "In addition to the problems China poses by itself, a new dimension has been added: that of China as a supporter of Russia. This now becomes directly related to Europe's security."

Stoltenberg repeatedly mentioned the danger of China and Russia collaborating during his trip to Japan, Tsuruoka told Nikkei Asia.

Tsuruoka said that NATO having a foothold in Tokyo would have a significant meaning for Japan. "It means that when NATO looks at Asia, including China, it will be doing so through Tokyo's prism. When the representative sends back information to NATO headquarters, it will always be via Tokyo."

NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu stressed Japan's importance in a statement to Nikkei on Wednesday.

"Among NATO's partners, none is closer or more capable than Japan," Lungescu said. "We share the same values, interests and concerns, including supporting Ukraine and addressing the security challenges posed by authoritarian regimes, and our partnership is getting stronger."

She noted long-standing cooperation between NATO and Japan, as demonstrated by Stoltenberg's visit to Japan at the start of the year and the Japanese foreign minister's participation at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in April.

"The Secretary General has also invited the Prime Minister of Japan, as well as the leaders of our other Indo-Pacific partners, to the Vilnius Summit in July," Lungescu said.

"As to plans to open a liaison office in Japan, we won't go into the details of ongoing deliberations among NATO allies, but in general, NATO has offices and liaison arrangements with a number of international organizations and partner countries, and allies regularly assess those liaison arrangements to ensure that they best serve the needs of both NATO and our partners," she said.

 

Parts of China trip more than shocking, says German Foreign Minister

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Wednesday described parts of her recent trip to China as more than shocking and said Beijing was increasingly becoming a systemic rival more than a trade partner and competitor.

The blunt remarks followed Baerbock's visit to Beijing last week where she warned that any attempt by China to control Taiwan would be unacceptable.

Beijing claims democratically governed Taiwan as a Chinese province and has never ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control.

Baerbock also said China wanted to follow its own rules at the expense of the international rules-based order. Beijing in turn asked Germany to support Taiwan's reunification and said China and Germany were not adversaries but partners.

Speaking to the German Bundestag (lower house of parliament) on Wednesday about her China trip, Baerbock said some of it was really more than shocking.

She did not elaborate on specifics, although her remark came after she said China was becoming more repressive internally as well as aggressive externally.

For Germany, she said, China is a partner, competitor and systemic rival, but her impression is now that the systemic rival aspect is increasing more and more.

China is Germany's largest trading partner, said Baerbock, but this did not mean Beijing was also Germany's most important trading partner.

The German government wants to work with China but does not want to repeat past mistakes, for example the notion of change through trade, she said, that the West can achieve political shifts in authoritarian regimes through commerce.

Baerbock also said China had a responsibility to work towards peace in the world, in particular using its influence over Russia in the war in Ukraine.

She welcomed Beijing's promise not to supply weapons to Russia, including dual use items, though added that Berlin would see how such a promise worked in practice.

In a departure from the policies of former chancellor Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz's government is developing a new China strategy to reduce dependence on Asia's economic superpower, a vital export market for German goods.

 

 

 

Rubio responds to Macron’s call to break away from United States

Sen. Marco Rubio has condemned French President Emanuel Macron for appearing to advocate that Europe should distance itself from the United States over a possible Chinese military aggression against Taiwan.

In a roughly two-minute video posted on Twitter Sunday, Rubio asked whether Macron speaks for all of Europe when he suggested that the EU should not pick sides between the United States and China over Taiwan.

Further arguing European nations should break away from the United States and avoid getting involved in crises that are not ours to build Europe’s strategic autonomy concept.

While returning from a three-day state visit to China after meeting with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping, Macron told Politico during an interview that the EU needs to reduce its US reliance and avoid becoming America’s followers.

Responding to Macron’s interview, Rubio said that Europe—particularly France—has relied heavily on the United States for decades for their defense.

“This is a good moment for us to ask Europe Does Macron speak for all of Europe, is Macron now the head of Europe, is he now the most powerful leader in Europe? Rubio questioned, then noting if that were the case, “There are some things that have to change.”

“In fact, when Macron tried to play global superpower and sent troops to North Africa to fight terrorists, he couldn’t even get his own troops there,” he added. “We had to fly them there, and we had to fly them back; he couldn’t even get his own troops there.”

“So, if they’re gonna break off on their own and follow Macron’s lead, that’s going to save us a lot of money,” the Florida lawmaker continued.

Rubio also addressed the United States military assistance to Ukraine, saying Americans have spent a lot of our taxpayer money on the European conflict.

He also stressed that he supports the cause because he believes it’s in the national interests of the United States to be allies to our allies.

“But, if our allies’ position—if, in fact, Macron speaks for all of Europe, and their position now is they’re not gonna pick sides between the US and China over Taiwan—maybe we shouldn’t be picking sides either. Maybe we should basically say we’re gonna focus on Taiwan and the threats China poses, and you guys handle Ukraine and Europe,” Rubio said.

“So, we need to find out, does Macron speak for Macron, or does Macron speak for Europe?” he added. “And we need to get the answer to that pretty quickly because China is very excited about what he said.”

 

US to establish new naval bases in Philippines

The Pentagon on Monday announced the locations of four new naval bases in the Philippines, securing three of the spots in the northeastern part of the island to better counter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

The US will create two naval bases in the Cagayan province covering Luzon, the northern portion of the Philippines archipelago that lies directly across from Taiwan in the South China Sea. Naval Base Camilo Osias will be located near the municipality of Santa Ana, Cagayan. The other base in Caguyan will be near the Lal-lo Airport. Another military base, called Melchor Dela Cruz, will be located in Gamu, Isabela, also on the Luzon point. A fourth military base will be located at Balabac Island in the province of Palawan, located in the western part of the Philippines near the Spratly Islands, a major archipelago in the disputed South China Sea.

Tensions between the US and China are high over fears that Beijing will seek to take control of Taiwan in the coming years. China has also angered its regional neighbors with aggressive efforts to assert control over the South China Sea, which is crucial to global trade.

America’s new bases in the Philippines will provide a major boost to the US presence in the region, as part of efforts to neutralize China’s influence.

Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said the expansion in the Philippines makes our training more resilient.

“It is about creating regional readiness but also being able to respond to any type of disaster or any type of humanitarian disaster that could arise in the region,” she told reporters at a Monday briefing.

Beijing has reacted angrily to the expansion of the US military in the Philippines.

A spokesperson for China’s embassy in the Philippines said the agreement will seriously endanger regional peace and stability and drag the Philippines into the abyss of geopolitical strife and damage its economic development.

 

is tantamount to quenching thirst with poison and gouging flesh to heal wounds,” “Creating economic opportunities and jobs through military cooperation the spokesperson said after US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland traveled to the Philippines last month.

Washington already operates five military bases in the Philippines on a rotational basis, meaning they cannot station troops there permanently.

Those camps are located near Manila and in the south and east of the Philippines — but none were in the northern Luzon province, which is more strategically located.

The US reached an agreement for the bases with the Philippines in 2014 called the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the four new military bases in February during a trip to Manila, the capital of the Philippines, but did not disclose the planned locations.

Austin at the time called it a big deal and a sign of the ironclad partnership with the Indo-Pacific nation.

The US has already pledged US$82 million for improvements at the existing five bases in the Philippines and intends to invest more funds to get the new camps up and running.

 

 

Globalization to be reshaped by US-China power tussle

In an increasingly polarized world, the need for multilateral frameworks that enable countries to do business with each other, even if they do not always see eye to eye, is stronger than ever, said Singaporean Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

“If we can forge stronger partnerships between the major powers and all countries in the region, we can help foster a more stable and prosperous Asia,” he stressed in a keynote speech at the 55th Wharton Global Forum on Saturday, calling for new working arrangements and international collaboration to tackle issues that affect everyone, such as climate change and future pandemics.

“We must all work together to fortify multilateralism, and the global rules of the game.” 

What happens over the next few decades will be defined by how the rivalry between China and the US unfolds, said Wong, describing Taiwan as a dangerous flashpoint, with the Ukraine war adding to tensions.

Speaking to 800 alumni of Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, business leaders and government officials at the Shangri-La Singapore, he noted that on the economic side, the era of untrammeled globalization we enjoyed over the last 30 years is over.

More and more multinationals are looking to move production back home or relocate to markets that have a bigger consumer base, where they are less likely to get caught in geostrategic crossfires.

“Governments are also embracing more muscular industrial policies. The US, China and European Union are stumping out more aggressive support, in the form of tax breaks and subsidies, to develop domestic strengths in what they assess to be critical industries like semiconductors and green energy. We are seeing the emergence of an industrial policy arms race, and a huge contest for leadership in key technologies, which is likely to escalate with time,” said Wong, who is also Singapore’s Finance Minister.

“Left unchecked, if this trend continues, we will see a more fragmented and dangerous global order.”

While the leaders of both the US and China have affirmed their intent to engage one another and said they do not want a new Cold War, more needs to be done, said Mr Wong, highlighting Singapore’s support for multilateral pacts such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest free trade agreement, covering countries such as China, Japan, Australia and the 10 Asean nations.

“Meanwhile, the US has signaled its continued commitment to deepen its economic engagement of the region through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Singapore has welcomed this too and hopes to work with partners to develop a framework which is open, inclusive, and flexible.”

Wong highlighted how an open, rules-based international order helped keep the world relatively stable.

While such an order was never perfect he said, “This stability fostered international cooperation and gave birth to an era of unparalleled economic transformation – many countries prospered, and millions were lifted out of poverty”.

“Today the world is more divided than ever before. But amidst these differences, we must find enough common ground to solve our collective problems.”

He added that multilateral institutions, like the World Bank, World Trade Organization and World Health Organization, which have helped define the rules-based international order over the decades, remain strong and relevant.

Wong said Singapore would do its part to advance these goals, while being realistic. “After all, we are really one of the smallest countries in Asia. We know that we have to adapt to the world as it is, not what we would like it to be.”

If not, he cautioned, Singapore might go the way of another Singapore – an American village founded in the 1830s in Michigan. Once a thriving lumber port town hoping to emulate the Asian city it was named after, it is now a ghost town after the lumber trade went into decline.

Wong, who is an alumnus of the University of Michigan, said Singapore is determined not to meet the same fate. “Singapore today may be in a stronger position than when we started out... but we will always be that little red dot in the world. And in this era of change, really, one can never take things for granted.”

To thrive and prosper, Singapore will do its best to stay relevant and add value in the global network as a key node for trade, finance, talent and ideas.

“We will continue to build a vast network of friends to promote peace and stability in our region, and, most of all, to preserve our sovereignty and right to determine our own future.”

Globalization almost dead, says TSMC Founder

Morris Chang , father of Taiwan's chip industry said geopolitics have drastically changed the situation facing semiconductor makers and warned that globalization and free trade are almost dead, and unlikely to come back, reports Nikkei Asia.

Morris Chang, Founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company was speaking at an event in Phoenix, Arizona, where the company marked the symbolic first equipment installation at its new plant.

It is TSMC's first advanced chip plant in the United States in more than two decades, and Chang said a lot of hard work remains to make it a success.

He compared the current US$40 billion project to when TSMC built its first plant in the US in Camas, Washington, in 1995, just eight years after the world's biggest contract chipmaker was founded.

"Twenty-seven years have passed and the semiconductor industry witnessed a big change in the world, a big geopolitical situation change in the world," Chang said.

"Globalization is almost dead and free trade is almost dead. A lot of people still wish they would come back, but I don't think they will be back."

His comments come amid growing fears that tensions between the US and China over chips, splitting the global tech supply chain into two camps. Washington's crackdown on Beijing's chip ambitions, seen most recently in new restrictions rolled out in October, have made it increasingly difficult for companies like TSMC to serve clients in China.

Chang said he had always dreamed of building a chip plant, or fab, in the United States because of his own background. He was educated and worked in the US for several decades. But his first experience did not go smoothly.

"It was, I thought, a dream fulfilled," Chang said. "But the first plant ran into cost problems. We ran into people problems, we ran into cultural problems. The dream fulfilled became a nightmare fulfilled. It took us several years to untangle ourselves from my nightmare, and I decided that I needed to postpone the dream."

In the decades that followed, TSMC focused on building up cutting-edge chip production capacity in its home market, a strategy that helped the company keep costs down while continually honing its technological know-how.

Chang said the tool installation event -- an important milestone in building a chip plant -- signaled the end of one phase in making its US bid pay off.

"The romance of the beginning is lost and the initial excitement is gone. A lot of hard work remains," the industry veteran said.

But Chang added that TSMC is much more prepared than its first time building a chip plant in the US with the support of the US government.

A large delegation of top chip and tech industry CEOs attended the event, as did US President Joe Biden, who lauded the plant as a win for the US in its push to make cutting-edge chips domestically.

Washington has cited national security concerns and supply issues for wanting to bring vital semiconductor production back to its shores. Many industry executives agree that the era of globalization is retreating, and that sourcing locally is now a top priority.

Lisa Su, CEO of chip developer AMD, told Nikkei Asia on the sidelines of the event that supply chain continuity is now one of the top priorities for companies like hers.

"The entire semiconductor ecosystem is ready to step up and work together. ... The industry has been through so much in the past few years. Having more geographically diversified capacity is so important," Su said, referring to the unprecedented chip shortage. "At the end of the day, what we want to do is ensure that our most important chips have a resilient supply chain."

Apple CEO Tim Cook also embraced the idea of onshoring chip production despite his company for years relying on global suppliers to lower the costs of its designed in the US products.

"Over the past several years, the progress we've made with Apple silicon has transformed our devices. It has unlocked new levels of performance for our users, enabling them to do things they could never do before," said Cook at the event. "And now, thanks to the hard work of so many people, these chips can be proudly stamped 'Made in America.' This is an incredibly significant moment. It's the chance for the United States to usher in a new era in advanced manufacturing."

"Building fabs is clearly very hard work," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told Nikkei Asia on the sidelines. "Today's event is marking that TSMC will be a fundamental partner of every company's aim for supply chain resilience. It will make TSMC even stronger. As TSMC increases its own supply chain resilience by building a fab in the US, it will give us resilience, too."

Apple, AMD and Nvidia are set to be among the first customers for TSMC's Arizona plant.

 

 

TSMC to triple US chip investment

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is to more than triple its investment in the United States to US$40 billion to bring the world's most advanced chip production technology to the country by 2026.

TSMC, the world's biggest contract chipmaker, announced to increase its investment in Arizona, where it is building a US$12 billion chip facility, to US$40 billion in order to build a second, even more advanced plant there.

The announcement came ahead of an equipment installation ceremony at the first facility attended by US President Joe Biden and numerous tech industry executives.

The additional facility will begin operation by 2026 and will be the first plant in the US to make 3-nanometer chips, the most advanced currently available, a White House official said.

In line with the expansion, TSMC will increase its workforce in Arizona to 4,500, from an initial plan of 1,600, the company said.

Nanometer size refers to the distance between transistors on a chip - the smaller the number, generally speaking, the more powerful the chip. As the brains of electronic devices, such chips are vital for everything from smartphones and autonomous vehicles to supercomputers and AI technologies.

TSMC's first plant, which is slated to begin production in 2024, will produce 4-nm chips of the kind used for iPhone 14 Pro processors. Once that plant and the 3-nm facility are operating at full capacity, TSMC's total output in Arizona will be 60,000 wafers per month, triple its original plan of 20,000.

"When complete, TSMC Arizona will be the greenest semiconductor manufacturing facility in the United States producing the most advanced semiconductor process technology in the country, enabling next generation high-performance and low-power computing products for years to come," TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said in a statement.

"We are thankful for the continual collaboration that has brought us here and are pleased to work with our partners in the United States to serve as a base for semiconductor innovation."

Apple and chipmakers AMD and Nvidia will be among the first customers buying chips from TSMC's Arizona plant, according to an announcement by the company and the White House, confirming an earlier Nikkei Asia report.

AMD told Nikkei Asia that it looks forward to having its most advanced chip products built in TSMC's Arizona fabs.

Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement that bringing TSMC's investment to the United States is a masterstroke and a game-changing development for the industry.

Biden's decision to attend the equipment installation ceremony underscores the importance of TSMC to Washington's chip ambitions.

Speaking at the event, Biden said America had once had more than 30% of global chip production.

"Then something happened. American manufacturing, the backbone of our economy, began to get hollowed out. Companies moved jobs overseas," he said.

"Today we're down to producing only around 10% of the world's chips, despite leading the world in research and design in new chip technologies. But ... where is it written that America can't lead the world once again in manufacturing? I don't know where that's written, and we're proving it can."

Biden was joined by a who's who of the tech industry, including CEOs from companies such as Apple, Nvidia and AMD as well as top chip making tool companies Applied Materials and Lam Research plus other chip-related players such as Entegris, Synopsys and Arm.

TSMC founder Morris Chang, Chairman Mark Liu and CEO C.C. Wei all attended.

Liu said in his remarks that the plant has the potential to generate US$10 billion in revenue a year and chips produced there could help build advanced electronics products worth US$40 billion a year.

The companies represented at the ceremony are worth at least US$4 trillion, making the event the most important gathering in the semiconductor industry in the post-pandemic era.

In the chip industry, a tool move-in event signals that the installation of essential equipment has begun and is a significant milestone for a chip making facility to become operational.

TSMC's announcement comes as Washington is pushing hard to onshore vital production of semiconductors. In addition to their economic importance, chips are also seen as vital to national security - a sentiment reflected in the latest round of export controls Washington imposed on China in an attempt to curb its semiconductor advancement.

Their importance was further brought home by a global chip shortage sparked by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions, hitting a range of industries.

Rising political tensions between China and Taiwan, the self-ruled democratic island where TSMC is based and which Beijing views as part of its territory, have further accelerated Washington's push to diversify chip production.

Most of the world's cutting-edge chips are built in Asia by TSMC and Samsung Electronics of South Korea.

The US is hoping to change this by offering incentives for companies to build chip capacity on American soil. In July, lawmakers passed the US$52.7 billion CHIPS and Science Act package to boost the domestic semiconductor industry.

In addition to TSMC's expanded investment plans, Samsung is building a US$17 billion plant in Texas, while top US chipmaker Intel is spending at least $40 billion to build chip plants in Arizona and Ohio.

Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel are building or attempting to build chips as advanced as 3-nm, and all aim to put even more advanced 2-nm chips into production by 2025.

 

US approves record military spending

The US House of Representatives backed legislation on Thursday paving the way for the defense budget to hit a record US$858 billion next year, US$45 billion more than proposed by President Joe Biden.

The House passed the compromise version of the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, an annual must-pass bill setting policy for the Pentagon, by 350-80, far exceeding the two-thirds majority required to pass the legislation and send it for a vote in the Senate.

The fiscal 2023 NDAA authorizes US$858 billion in military spending and includes a 4.6% pay increase for the troops, funding for purchases of weapons, ships and aircraft; and support for Taiwan as it faces aggression from China and Ukraine as it fights an invasion by Russia.

"This bill is Congress exercising its authority to authorize and do oversight," said Representative Adam Smith, the Democratic chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, in a speech urging support for the measure.

Because it is one of the few major bills passed every year, members of Congress use the NDAA as a vehicle for a range of initiatives, some unrelated to defense.

This year's bill - the result of months of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate - needed a two-thirds majority in the House after disagreement from some House members over whether it should include an amendment on voting rights.

The fiscal 2023 NDAA includes a provision demanded by many Republicans requiring the Secretary of Defense to rescind a mandate requiring that members of the armed forces get COVID-19 vaccinations.

It provides Ukraine at least US$800 million in additional security assistance next year and includes a range of provisions to strengthen Taiwan amid tensions with China.

The bill authorizes more funds to develop new weapons and purchase systems including Lockheed Martin Corp's F-35 fighter jets and ships made by General Dynamics.

The Senate is expected to pass the NDAA next week, sending it to the White House for President Joe Biden to sign into law.

NDAA is not the final word on spending. Authorization bills create programs but Congress must pass appropriations bills to give the government legal authority to spend federal money.

Congressional leaders have not yet agreed on an appropriations bill for next year.

 

Taiwanese TS Lines to list IPO at Hong Kong

According to Seatrade Maritime News, Taiwan-based TS Lines is planning for Initial Public Offerings (IPO) at Hong Kong Stock Exchange for supporting fleet expansion and business development.

As of June 30, 2022, TS Lines’ container shipping network covered a total of 22 countries and regions, 56 major ports and 45 services globally, having an extensive network in the Asia region market. The IPO would fund its continued expansion in the region, including the Greater Bay Area of which Hong Kong is part of.

“We believe that our high-frequency services provide our customers with greater flexibility to manage their logistics needs and stronger capability to achieve faster inventory turnover. We have established a long-term presence in the Greater Bay Area, which we view as instrumental to our future development in the Asia region market and in which we also see significant opportunities for sustained profitable growth in the future,” TS Lines said.

TS Lines is continuing to expand its fleet capacity to support growth plans in the Asia region market and selected long-haul services. The company had ordered 22 vessels including 16 vessels ranging from 1,100 to 2,900 teu and six 7,000 teu vessels, which are expected to be delivered between November 2022 and November 2024. 

As of 30 June the company had a total of 52 vessels, consisting of 26 owned vessels and 26 chartered vessels, with a total capacity of 107,907 teu. The majority of its fleet consists of small sized vessels each with capacity of less than 2,000 teu, which are able to access most ports in the Asia region and are more flexible in deployment than larger vessels. 

In August this year, TS Lines has placed an order at Fujian Mawei Shipbuilding for the construction of four boxships. The four 1,100 teu containerships, designed by Shanghai Ship Design and Research Institute (SDARI), are the latest version containership for China-Japan shipping routes. 

The vessels will have 147.9 metres length and 23.25 metres width, having a carrying capacity of 1,140 twenty-foot containers. TS Lines has been expanding fleet capacity since last year, and the company is expected to have a self-owned fleet of over 40 vessels by 2024.

 

China announces sanctions against Nancy Pelosi

Chinese foreign ministry has announced it will issue sanctions against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her direct family relatives after she travelled to Taiwan this week.

The ministry said Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was a serious violation of China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a serious violation of the one-China principle.

Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday night and met officials, including Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, before flying out on Wednesday afternoon. The trip was a stop on her Asian tour and drew the ire of Beijing.

Taiwanese leader says island ‘won’t provoke but will firmly defend’ amid mainland military drills

Websites in Taiwan, including those of its defence and foreign affairs ministries, have gone offline amid heightened tension with Beijing and as mainland China holds military exercises in areas surrounding the island.

Several government websites in Taiwan have been subjected to cyberattacks in the days following the arrival of Pelosi in Taiwan.

The websites of Taiwan’s National Defence Ministry and Foreign Affairs Ministry went down in the early hours of Friday but were soon back online. Both sites were also inaccessible late on Wednesday night.

Taiwan’s Chi Yang-class frigate Ning Yang is anchored at a harbour in Keelung city, Taiwan, on Friday. Beijing’s military started to a series of live-fire drills in six maritime areas around Taiwan’s main island to run until Sunday.

Lo Ping-cheng, Taiwan Cabinet spokesman, said on Thursday attack traffic during this period was about twice as high as past attacks.

“The peak was on Tuesday, and the attack traffic was 23 times the previous peak,” Lo said.

Lo said targets of recent cyberattacks on government departments include Taiwan’s presidential office and the defence and foreign affairs ministries.

US will not abandon Taiwan, says Pelosi

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taiwan on Wednesday after a visit that heightened tensions with China. Pelosi said, she and other members of Congress in her delegation showed they will not abandon their commitment to the self-governing island.

Pelosi, the first US speaker to visit the island in more than 25 years, courted Beijing’s wrath with the visit and set off more than a week of debate over whether it was a good idea after news of it leaked. In Taipei she remained calm but defiant.

“Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy,” she said in a short speech during a meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. “America’s determination to preserve democracy, here in Taiwan and around the world remains ironclad.”

Pelosi arrived at a military base in South Korea on Wednesday evening ahead of meetings with political leaders in Seoul, after which she will visit Japan.

Both countries are US alliance partners, together hosting about 80,000 American personnel as a bulwark against North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and China’s increased assertiveness in the South China and East China seas.

 “Such an act equals to sealing off Taiwan by air and sea, such an act covers our country’s territory and territorial waters, and severely violates our country’s territorial sovereignty,” Capt. Jian-chang Yu said at a briefing by the National Defense Ministry.

The Chinese military exercises, including live fire, are to start Thursday and be the largest aimed at Taiwan since 1995, when China fired missiles in a large-scale exercise to show its displeasure at a visit by then-Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui to the United States.

Taiwanese President Tsai responded firmly Wednesday to Beijing’s military intimidation.

“Facing deliberately heightened military threats, Taiwan will not back down,” Tsai said at her meeting with Pelosi. “We will firmly uphold our nation’s sovereignty and continue to hold the line of defense for democracy.”

In Washington, John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, said Wednesday that the United States was anticipating more military drills and other actions from China in coming days as the country’s armed forces “flex their muscles.”

Still, “we don’t believe we’re at the brink now, and there’s certainly no reason for anybody to be talking about being at the brink going forward,” Kirby said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

China’s official Xinhua News Agency announced the military actions Tuesday night, along with a map outlining six different areas around Taiwan. Arthur Zhin-Sheng Wang, a defense studies expert at Taiwan’s Central Police University, said three of the areas infringe on Taiwanese waters, meaning they are within 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers) of shore.

Pelosi’s trip has heightened US-China tensions more than visits by other members of Congress because of her high-level position as leader of the House of Representatives. She is the first speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in 25 years, since Newt Gingrich in 1997. However, other members of Congress have visited Taiwan in the past year.

Tsai, thanking Pelosi for her decades of support for Taiwan, presented the speaker with a civilian honor, the Order of the Propitious Clouds.

Shortly after Pelosi landed Tuesday night, China announced live-fire drills that reportedly started that night, as well as the four-day exercises starting Thursday.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force also flew a contingent of 21 war planes Tuesday night, including fighter jets, toward Taiwan. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng also summoned the US Ambassador in Beijing, Nicholas Burns, to convey the country’s protests the same night.

Pelosi addressed Beijing’s threats Wednesday morning, saying she hopes it’s clear that while China has prevented Taiwan from attending certain international meetings, “that they understand they will not stand in the way of people coming to Taiwan as a show of friendship and of support.”

She noted that support for Taiwan is bipartisan in Congress and praised the island’s democracy. She stopped short of saying that the US would defend Taiwan militarily, emphasizing that Congress is “committed to the security of Taiwan, in order to have Taiwan be able to most effectively defend themselves.”

Her focus has always been the same, she said, going back to her 1991 visit to Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, when she and other lawmakers unfurled a small banner supporting democracy two years after a bloody military crackdown on protesters at the square. That visit was also about human rights and what she called dangerous technology transfers to “rogue countries.”

Pelosi visited a human rights museum in Taipei that details the history of the island’s martial law era and met with some of Taiwan’s most prominent rights activists, including an exiled former Hong Kong bookseller who was detained by Chinese authorities, Lam Wing-kee.

Pelosi, who is leading the trip with five other members of Congress, also met with representatives from Taiwan’s legislature.

“Madam Speaker’s visit to Taiwan with the delegation, without fear, is the strongest defense of upholding human rights and consolidation of the values of democracy and freedom,” Tsai Chi-chang, vice president of Taiwan’s legislature, said in welcome.

The administration of US President Joe Biden has sought to tone down the volume on the visit, insisting there’s no change in America’s longstanding “one-China policy,” which recognizes Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei.

Pelosi said her delegation has “heft,” including Gregory Meeks, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Raja Krishnamoorthi from the House Intelligence Committee. Reps. Andy Kim and Mark Takano are also in the delegation.

She also mentioned Rep. Suzan DelBene, whom Pelosi said was instrumental in the passage of a US$280 billion bill aimed at boosting American manufacturing and research in semiconductor chips — an industry that Taiwan dominates and is vital for modern electronic

 

 

Pelosi visits Taiwan in utter disregard to Chinese warnings

More than 30 years ago, Nancy Pelosi angered China's government by showing up in Tiananmen Square and unfurling a banner honoring dissidents killed in the 1989 protests.

On Tuesday, August 02, 2022, as speaker of the House of Representatives, Pelosi disregarded China's fiery warnings and landed in Taiwan to support its government and meet with human rights activists.

Pelosi's trip to Taiwan capped her decades as a leading US critic of the Beijing government, especially on rights issues, and underscores the long history of the US Congress taking a harder line than the White House in dealings with Beijing.

Second in line for the presidency after Vice President Kamala Harris, Pelosi became the most senior US politician to travel to Taiwan since then-Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997. She led a delegation of six other House members.

In 1991, two years after China's bloody crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations, Pelosi and two other US lawmakers unfurled a banner in Tiananmen reading, "To those who died for democracy in China."

In 2015, she took a group of House Democrats to Tibet, the first such visit since widespread unrest in 2008. Pelosi has regularly spoken out about human rights issues in Tibet and has met the Dalai Lama, whom Beijing reviles as a violent separatist.

China views visits by US officials to Taiwan as sending an encouraging signal to the island's pro-independence camp. Washington does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is legally bound to provide it with the means to defend itself.

Kharis Templeman, a Taiwan expert at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, said Pelosi, who is 82, would be looking to cement her legacy, while signaling support for Taiwan against pressure from Beijing.

"And what better person to send that signal than the speaker of the House herself? So she's in a very powerful symbolic position to take a stand against the CCP," Templeman said, referring to the Chinese Communist Party.

Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory and has never renounced using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims and says only its people can decide its future.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said a trip would lead to "very serious developments and consequences."

Analysts said Beijing's response was likely to be symbolic. "I think China has tried to signal that their reaction would make the US and Taiwan uncomfortable, but would not cause a war," said Scott Kennedy, a China analyst at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Congress has long taken a harder line on Taiwan than the White House, no matter whether Democrats, such as President Joe Biden and Pelosi, or Republicans are in charge.

Republicans supported Pelosi's trip. "Any member that wants to go, should. It shows political deterrence to President Xi," Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told NBC News. McCaul said he was invited to join Pelosi's Asia trip but was unable to do so.

The executive branch takes ultimate responsibility for foreign policy but relations with Taiwan are one area where Congress wants influence. The Taiwan Relations Act, which has guided relations since 1979, passed Congress with an overwhelming majority after lawmakers rejected a proposal from then-President Jimmy Carter as too weak.

Democrats and Republicans in the US Senate are working on a bill that would overhaul that policy, including by increasing military support for Taiwan and expanding Taipei's role in international organizations.

Pelosi's trip and Beijing’s reaction have pushed the White House to once again express - including in a call between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week - that it has no desire to change the status quo.

Biden cast doubt publicly on the wisdom of the trip last month in a rare break with Pelosi, a close ally.

"I think that the military thinks it's not a good idea right now, but I don't know what the status of it is," Biden told reporters.

Pelosi's office refused ahead of the visit to rule out or confirm a possible stop by the speaker, citing security concerns typical for top US officials.

Pelosi announced on Sunday that she was leading a congressional delegation to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan "to reaffirm America's strong and unshakeable commitment to our allies and friends in the region."

US defense officials played down the risk of China's military interfering with Pelosi's visit, but they were worried that an accident could spiral into a larger conflict.

 

Nancy Pelosi sets off on Asia tour

According to South China Morning Post, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has begun her anticipated trip to Asia, with her office naming four destinations but making no mention of Taiwan. 

This comes amid more stormy warnings from Beijing amid heightened tensions over her planned visit to the island.

Pelosi, No 3 in the line of US presidential succession, is leading a six-member congressional delegation to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, according to a statement released by her office on Sunday.

The statement skipped any mention of Taiwan, after days of intense speculation about a likely stop there fuelled tensions, with Beijing calling it a provocation and warning Washington against playing with fire.

“In Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, our delegation will hold high-level meetings to discuss how we can further advance our shared interests and values, including peace and security, economic growth and trade, the Covid-19 pandemic, the climate crisis, human rights and democratic governance,” the statement quoted Pelosi as saying.

“America is firmly committed to smart, strategic engagement in the region, understanding that a free and flourishing Indo-Pacific is crucial to prosperity in our nation and around the globe,” the 82-year-old Democratic lawmaker said.

Beijing regards Taiwan to be a breakaway province, to be reunited by force if necessary, and warns against any official exchange with the self-governed island.

It earlier said Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan was a move to support Taiwan independence, in violation of one-China policy, followed by the United States.

On Thursday, Biden and China’s Xi Jinping spoke on the phone for over two hours. During the call, Biden tried to reassure Xi that US policy towards Taiwan has not changed.

“On Taiwan, President Biden emphasized that US policy has not changed and that the US strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” an official readout on the White House website said.

After the leaders’ phone call, China’s Foreign Ministry quoted Xi as telling Biden that those who play with fire will perish by it and that they hoped the United States will be clear-eyed about this.

However, Pelosi indicated on Friday that she will be on a trip to Asia, but did not mention Taiwan. “I am very excited if we were to go to the countries that you will hear about along the way,” she said, Reuters reported.

White House spokesman John Kirby said, “Where she (Pelosi) is going to go and what she is going to do is up to the speaker to speak to.”

However, he added that the United States has not observed any signs of a specific military threat from China. “(We have) seen no physical, tangible indications of anything untoward with regard to Taiwan,” Kirby said.

  

United States-Japan at Tokyo Summit to commit to jointly deter China

According to Nikkei Asia, the Japanese and United States governments have begun coordinating on the wording of a joint statement to be released during their summit meeting on Monday in Tokyo. 

The statement will clearly state a policy of cooperation to deter and respond to China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region.

The statement will also outline a policy of keeping Japan under the US nuclear umbrella, and the sharing of security strategies between the two countries. The partners will confirm the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), led by US and clarify Washington's involvement in Asia.

This will be the first face-to-face meeting between Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Joe Biden. The two leaders' expected reference to deterring China's hegemonic behavior reflects their concern that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has implications for Asia.

The US is deepening its military commitment to Europe to deal with Russia, and, for the time being, the US will be forced to conduct a three-front strategy -- in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia. Despite the challenges, the US will again stress both domestically and internationally that its top priority is China, which the US believes is its only strategic competitor.

The previous joint statement published last year and delivered by then-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Biden spoke of the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for the first time in almost half a century. It also included the phrase ‘the importance of deterrence’ in the region.

This time they will strengthen the wording to include the statement that they will deter China's actions that undermine stability in the region, and if necessary, will cooperate to respond. The statement will also emphasize that they will not allow the status quo to be changed by force, and it will maintain the previous wording regarding the Taiwan Strait.

The two countries will maintain economic sanctions against Russia, which continues its aggression against Ukraine, and will condemn threats to use nuclear weapons. The statement will also again call for the complete denuclearization of North Korea.

The US will clarify its stance on protecting Japan under the nuclear umbrella. The US has been unable to dissuade Russia, which possesses nuclear weapons, from invading Ukraine, and concerns about the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence are spreading. Washington will reaffirm that if Japan is threatened with nuclear weapons, it is willing to defend Japan not only with conventional forces but also with nuclear weapons if necessary. This will be included in the joint statement.

The two countries will also confirm that they plan to share security goals and strategies, specifically, the National Security Strategy to be formulated by the end of the year. They will pledge to strengthen cooperation between the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the US military in areas such as troop operations, joint use of bases, and procurement of equipment, as they prepare for a possible emergency in Taiwan.

Prime Minister Kishida will also discuss with Biden the Japanese government's intended increase in defense spending, which had previously been limited to about 1% of gross domestic product, and its moves to develop a strike capability against enemy bases. That is, the ability to hit missile launch sites and other targets.

Regarding economic strategy, the US will establish a mechanism to deepen its involvement in Asia. The two countries will agree to hold the first economic version of a "2 plus 2" ministerial meeting, with the Japan-US ministerial talks serving as a command post, at an early date. They will also outline their basic policy of creating a stable supply chain for semiconductors among friendly countries and regions.

During his visit to Japan, President Biden will announce the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a new type of economic bloc, which more than 10 countries, including South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand are, expected to participate in. The US is deeply cautious about rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and will first use the IPEF as a forum to establish rules for digital trade and other areas.

 

United States getting ready to drag China in Taiwan conflict

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made it critically important for Washington to supply arms to Taiwan in the face of Beijing’s threats, said Republican Elise Stefanik.

“China is watching. They’re watching the US foreign policy when it comes to the war in Ukraine,” Stefanik told NTD’s “Capitol Report” program in a recent interview. “I think we need to be thinking very carefully about what that means for the future of Taiwan.”

Stefanik said the mistake President Joe Biden has made with regards to Ukraine should not be repeated.

“One of the lessons that—frankly, Republicans would have never let this happen, but Joe Biden let happen—was they didn’t get the weapons, munitions, in early enough to Ukraine,” she added.

“We need to be arming Taiwan now,” Stefanik said. “We need to be getting the support to Taiwan now, both as deterrence but also making sure that they are armed to self defend.”

Taiwan has been on a heightened state of alert since Russia launched a full-scale invasion against Ukraine on February 24, wary that China might make a similar military move to seize sovereignty of the self-governing island.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims that Taiwan is a part of the mainland and has never renounced the use of force to absorb the island. Internationally, Taiwan is widely recognized as a de facto independent state with its own military, constitution, and democratically-elected government officials.

Beijing may be tempted to attack Taiwan now, believing that Moscow would lend its support under their “no-limits” partnership, a new Sino–Russian alliance announced three weeks before the invasion of Ukraine. While Beijing has officially stuck with a “neutral” position between Russia and Ukraine, the regime has sided with Moscow on UN votes and amplified Russian justifications for the war.

Under the alliance, Russia has openly supported China’s claims for Taiwan. A joint communiqué announcing the partnership on February 04 said that Moscow “opposes any forms of independence of Taiwan.”

Admiral John Aquilino, Head of the US Indo–Pacific Command, shares Stefanik’s concerns about Taiwan. In an interview with the Financial Times on March 25, Aquilino said the lesson from the Russian invasion should be that a Chinese attack on Taiwan “could really happen.”

He said China has “increased maritime and air operations” in what he called a “pressure campaign” against Taiwan. He added, “We have to make sure we are prepared should any actions get taken.”

In recent years, China has repeatedly flown its military aircraft into the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). On Feb. 24, the day Russia began attacking Ukraine, China sent nine military planes into the island’s ADIZ.

Since that day, similar sorties have happened on 18 different days, according to Taiwan’s defense ministry. The latest incursion happened on March 27, when three Chinese military planes, including two bombers, entered Taiwan’s southeast ADIZ, promoting the island to deploy its military aircraft and air defense missile systems in response.

In Taiwan, the majority of Taiwanese do not believe the island can fend off a Chinese invasion by itself. That belief was shared by 78 percent of 1,077 respondents polled, according to a Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation survey released on March 22.

When asked whether the United States would go into a war against China to defend Taiwan, only 34.5 percent of those surveyed said they believed Washington would, while 55.9 percent said the United States wouldn’t.

Washington and Taipei are currently not formal allies and the United States has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” meaning that the United States is deliberately vague on the question of whether it would come to Taiwan’s defense.

Stefanik also criticized Biden for having not used “every tool at his disposal” to confront the CCP, taking exception to the president’s “no threats” remark on March 24 to characterize his phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

At NATO headquarters in Brussels on Friday, Biden said he had a “straightforward conversation” with Xi. The president added that he did not threaten his Chinese counterpart but “[made] sure he understood the consequences of him helping Russia.”

“You are dealing with a China that is strengthening their ties to Russian President Vladmir Putin prior to the invasion,” Stefanik said, before calling Xi and Putin “authoritarian, blood-thirsty despots” who “see weakness in the United States.”

In mid-March, several media outlets, citing unnamed US officials, stated that Russia had requested military assistance and financial aid for its war in Ukraine, and Beijing had signaled a willingness to comply. The two nations have denied the allegations.