US Indo-Pacific foreign security policy

According to Nikkei Asia, an emerging quadrilateral group, between the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, has become the core of Washington's foreign security policy in the Indo-Pacific, quickly overtaking the Quad in priority.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a series of meetings in Hawaii with his counterparts from the three countries last Thursday to set an "ambitious course" for peace, stability and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The four-way alliance has reportedly been nicknamed the "Squad" by Pentagon officials.

The four nations have held maritime military drills in April and are expected to hold more later this year.

Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the Quad, a gathering of the US, Japan, India and Australia, has "an appearance of slippage" due to scheduling problems caused by the elections in India, an upcoming one in the U.S., and the wars in Europe and the Middle East.

But Tellis said these developments have put the role of the Quad in perspective.

"Where balancing China is concerned, the Quad is only one arrow among many in the US quiver," he said. "It has its greatest value in peacetime.

"In militarized crises and conflict with China, the minilaterals like AUKUS and the 'Squad', and most importantly, the US-Japan alliance will prove to be far more important than the Quad," he said.

"That is not to denigrate the Quad. It is simply underscoring a strategic fact of life," the former special assistant to President George W. Bush added.

Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of the Observer Research Foundation America, said the newfound attention on the Squad grouping comes at a time when China has fired water cannons at Philippine supply ships in the South China Sea to prevent delivery of construction materials to the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal to bolster Manila's sovereignty.

"That's really where China's applying the greatest pressure at this time, even more than Taiwan, and it's really a test of the US alliance," Jaishankar said.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson has previously said the water cannon firings were a response to the ships intruding "without China's permission" and a "serious infringement" on Chinese sovereignty

New Delhi had hoped to convene a Quad summit earlier in the year, to coincide with a possible visit by US President Joe Biden visit to India in January, but the US leader was unable to make it citing a tight schedule.

India also explored a Quad summit before the Indian elections that began on April 19, according to Jaishankar. That too was thwarted by Biden's March 07 State of the Union address and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishdia's state-level visit to the US on April 10.

"Clearly the triangle of the US, Japan and Australia is far more important," said Kent Calder, director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, adding that "a series of strategic triangles (including the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and the US, Japan and Philippines) are really the core of US foreign policy now."

The professor noted that all of these strategic triangles have clear functional purposes. The Biden administration is "too busy for more talk shops," he said. "The Quad under current circumstances does have that problem."

But Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said the Squad is not a "replacement" for the Quad and should rather be seen as a supplement.

"India is an important part of the US Indo-Pacific strategy. It's a critical part," she said.

"In the event that there's any kind of conflict or crisis, either in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, India will play a critical role in keeping an eye on the Indian Ocean region and the Malacca Strait," she said.

The difference between the Quad and the Squad is the presence of the word "deterrence." Despite its formal name of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the Quad has stayed away from security issues.

Joint statements issued after the past three Quad leaders summits have included references of "peace" and "stability" of the region but has never spoken about deterrence.

This is out of consideration for India, who has had a tradition of non-alignment, more recently known as strategic autonomy.

 

Britain to join trans-Pacific trade pact

Britain on Sunday formally signed the treaty to join a major trans-Pacific trade pact, becoming the first country to take part since its inception in 2018 and opening the way for members to consider other applications including from China and Taiwan.

The signing was part of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) commission meeting being held in New Zealand.

Ministers from member countries will meet later on Sunday to discuss a range of topics, including how to move forward with new applications and a review of the agreement itself.

Britain's Business and Trade Secretary, Kemi Badenoch said at the signing that her country was delighted to become the first new member of the CPTPP.

"This is a modern and ambitious agreement and our membership in this exciting, brilliant and forward looking bloc is proof that the UK's doors are open for business," Badenoch said.

The British government still needs to ratify the agreement.

The CPTPP is a landmark trade pact agreed in 2018 between 11 countries including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

Britain will become the 12th member of the pact that cuts trade barriers, as it looks to deepen ties in the Pacific after its exit from the European Union in 2020.

China, Taiwan, Ukraine, Costa Rica, Uruguay and Ecuador have also applied to join the CPTPP.

New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said the road to bringing Britain into the agreement had been long and at times challenging, but having major economies inside the partnership would bring the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific in a way that strengthened the rules-based trading system in the region.

 

 

World spy chiefs meet in Singapore

According to Reuters, senior officials from about two dozen of the world's major intelligence agencies held a secret meeting on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue security meeting in Singapore this weekend.

Such meetings are organized by the Singapore government and have been discreetly held at a separate venue alongside the security summit for several years. The meetings have not been previously reported.

The US was represented by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, the head of her country's intelligence community, while China was among the other countries present, despite the tensions between the two superpowers.

Samant Goel, the head of India's overseas intelligence gathering agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), also attended.

"The meeting is an important fixture on the international shadow agenda," said one person with knowledge of the discussions. "Given the range of countries involved, it is not a festival of tradecraft, but rather a way of promoting a deeper understanding of intentions and bottom lines.

"There is an unspoken code among intelligence services that they can talk when more formal and open diplomacy is harder - it is a very important factor during times of tension, and the Singapore event helps promote that."

A spokesperson for the Singapore Ministry of Defence said that while attending the Shangri-La Dialogue, participants including senior officials from intelligence agencies also take the opportunity to meet their counterparts.

"The Singapore Ministry of Defence may facilitate some of these bilateral or multilateral meetings," the spokesperson said. "Participants have found such meetings held on the sidelines of the (dialogue) beneficial."

The United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand operate what is called the Five Eyes network to gather and share a broad range of intelligence, and their intelligence officials meet frequently.

Larger meetings of the intelligence community are rarer, and almost never publicized.

Although few details were available on the specific discussions in Singapore, Russia's war in Ukraine and transnational crime figured in the talks on Friday. On Thursday evening, the intelligence chiefs held an informal gathering.

No Russian representative was present, one of the sources said. Ukraine's deputy defence minister, Volodymr V. Havrylov, was at the Shangri-La Dialogue but said he did not attend the intelligence meeting.

Another of the sources said the tone at the meeting was collaborative and cooperative, and not confrontational.

At the main security dialogue, more than 600 delegates from 49 countries held three days of plenary sessions, as well as closed-door bilateral and multilateral meetings at the sprawling Shangri-La Hotel.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese gave the keynote address while US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu and counterparts from Britain, Japan, Canada, Indonesia and South Korea also spoke.

Haines was among the official US delegates to the Shangri-La Dialogue. At a discussion on cybersecurity in the main meeting, she said in response to a question from a Chinese military officer that cooperation between countries was essential.

"It is absolutely critical, even when there is distrust, and even when you are facing in effect adversaries, that you still try to work through and cooperate on issues of mutual interest and also try to manage the potential for escalation," she said.

US officials said on Friday that CIA Director William Burns visited China last month for talks with Chinese counterparts as the Biden administration seeks to boost communications with Beijing.

 

Asia security summit kicks off amid US-China tensions

Asia's top security meeting opened on Friday, with intensifying competition between the United States and China expected to dominate a weekend of high-level speeches, backroom military dealings and delicate diplomacy.

The Shangri-La Dialogue, which attracts senior military officers, diplomats, weapons makers and security analysts from around the globe, is taking place June 02-04 in Singapore.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will deliver the keynote address on Friday evening, before US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and China's new Defence Minister Li Shangfu are expected to trade barbs in speeches over the weekend.

The relationship between the US and China is at its lowest point in decades, as the two superpowers remain deeply divided over everything from the sovereignty of Taiwan to cyber espionage and territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

Hopes that the summit in Singapore could be a chance to mend ties between Washington and Beijing were dealt a blow last week when Li declined an offer to meet with Austin.

Li, who was named China's new defence minister in March, was sanctioned by the US in 2018 over weapons purchases from Russia.

Albanese's speech comes as Australia tries to strike a delicate balance between its strong ties to the US and its often tense relationship with China, which buys the bulk of its valuable iron ore and is its biggest trading partner.

A deal announced in March to buy US nuclear-powered submarines threatens to strain Australia's fragile ties with Beijing, which has been critical of the plan.

Australia is due to spend US$250 billion over three decades on the submarine program, part of a broader security pact with the US and Britain known as AUKUS.

Australia is also part of the Five Eyes intelligence collection and sharing network, along with the US, Britain, Canada and New Zealand – a grouping that Chinese officials say is part of the West’s lingering cold war mentality and an attempt to contain its rise.

Since being elected in May 2022, the Albanese Labor government has sought closer ties with ASEAN countries. Australia’s defence chief has said that as great power competition in the region persists, his country is focused on deterring conflict and deepening engagement with partners, including Pacific island and South East Asian nations.

Quad meeting scheduled in Sydney postponed

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Wednesday the Quad summit would not go ahead in Sydney next week without US President Joe Biden, who postponed his trip to Australia due to debt ceiling negotiations in Washington.

Albanese said the leaders of Australia, the United States, India and Japan would instead meet at the G7 in Japan this weekend, after Biden canceled a trip to Sydney on the second leg of his upcoming Asia trip, which was also to have included a visit to Papua New Guinea.

"The Quad leaders meeting will not be going ahead in Sydney next week. Though, we will be having that discussion between Quad leaders in Japan," Albanese told a news conference.

A bilateral program in Sydney with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi could still go ahead next week, Albanese said.

Albanese did not comment on whether Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida would still visit Sydney next week

The Quad is an informal group that promotes an open Indo-Pacific. Beijing sees it as an attempt to push back against its growing influence in the region.

Asia Society Policy Institute senior fellow Richard Maude said the cancellation of Biden's visit to Papua New Guinea, which would have been the first visit by an American president to an independent Pacific islands nation, could set back Washington's battle for influence with Beijing in the region.

“The mantra in the region is all about turning up. Turning up is half the battle. China turns up all the time, and so the optics aren’t great,” Maude, a former Australian intelligence chief, told a panel discussion on the Quad on Wednesday.

India and Australia are not part of the G7 group of seven rich nations - Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States - but have been invited to attend the summit in Japan.

 

NATO to open Japan office for deepening Indo-Pacific engagement

Nikkei Asia reports, NATO is planning to open a liaison office in Tokyo, the first of its kind in Asia. The station will allow the military alliance to conduct periodic consultations with Japan and key partners in the region such as South Korea, Australia and New Zealand as China emerges as a new challenge, alongside its traditional focus on Russia.

NATO and Japan will also upgrade their cooperation, aiming to sign an Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP) before the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11-12. The two sides will deepen collaboration in tackling cyber threats, coordinate stances on emerging and disruptive technologies, and exchange notes on fighting disinformation.

The idea of opening a liaison office was first discussed between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during the latter's visit to Tokyo at the end of January. In mid-April, the alliance circulated a draft proposal among its 31 members.

The proposal is to open a one-person liaison office in Tokyo next year. Whether the Japanese side provides the office space or if NATO funds the station is still under negotiation. NATO has similar liaison offices at the United Nations in New York, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in Vienna, as well as in Georgia, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova and Kuwait.

In many cases the host nation offers office space for NATO. If Tokyo provides the funding for a Western military alliance to have a foothold in Japan, it would symbolize a new phase in defense cooperation.

The intent to deepen cooperation is mutual. Japan plans to create an independent mission to NATO, separating it from the Embassy in Belgium, where it is currently based. A new ambassador will be dispatched, to relieve the NATO duties of Ambassador to Belgium Masahiro Mikami. Kishida told Stoltenberg of the plans at the January meeting.

Officials hope that the NATO-Japan signing of the ITPP would create momentum leading up to the Vilnius summit. The gathering is expected to be attended by the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand -- like last year -- signaling NATO's deeper engagement with the Indo-Pacific.

Last June, Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and then-New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern attended the NATO Summit in Madrid. Known as the Asia-Pacific partners (AP4) of NATO, they held a meeting on the sidelines.

Danish Ambassador to Japan Peter Taksoe-Jensen told Nikkei Asia in a phone interview that a NATO liaison office would be the first of its kind in the Indo-Pacific and more than just symbolic. "It would be a very visible, real way to strengthen the relations between Japan and NATO," he said.

The Danish Embassy acts as the contact-point embassy of the alliance in Japan and is coordinating with the member states in Tokyo regarding NATO-Japan collaboration.

Taksoe-Jensen noted that the geopolitical landscape has changed drastically since NATO issued its previous Strategic Concept in 2010.

"At the time, Russia was considered a potential partner and there was no mention of China. In 2022, at the Madrid Summit, allied leaders decided that Russia was no longer a partner but a foe, and that there was also an acknowledgment that China's rise would and could have an impact on trans-European security," he said.

"This is why it is important for NATO to keep up relations with our partners in this region." The envoy said that the liaison office would also reach out to other important actors in the region such as India and ASEAN countries.

Taksoe-Jensen said NATO-Japan cooperation, going forward, will focus on challenges that transcend regions, such as cyber threats, disruptive technology and disinformation activities.

This cooperation, Nikkei has learned, will be formalized in the coming weeks, when NATO and Japan will launch the ITPP to lay out cooperation on fields such as cybersecurity, disinformation and space. It will be an upgrade from the Individual Partnership and Cooperation Program (IPCP) that the two sides signed in 2014.

"There will also be a look at interoperability," Taksoe-Jensen said, regarding how NATO and Japanese forces work together in different areas. But he said it was "a step too far at the moment" to consider the two sides to bolster regional deterrence together.

Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor at Keio University, said that the war in Ukraine has changed the way NATO sees China. "In addition to the problems China poses by itself, a new dimension has been added: that of China as a supporter of Russia. This now becomes directly related to Europe's security."

Stoltenberg repeatedly mentioned the danger of China and Russia collaborating during his trip to Japan, Tsuruoka told Nikkei Asia.

Tsuruoka said that NATO having a foothold in Tokyo would have a significant meaning for Japan. "It means that when NATO looks at Asia, including China, it will be doing so through Tokyo's prism. When the representative sends back information to NATO headquarters, it will always be via Tokyo."

NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu stressed Japan's importance in a statement to Nikkei on Wednesday.

"Among NATO's partners, none is closer or more capable than Japan," Lungescu said. "We share the same values, interests and concerns, including supporting Ukraine and addressing the security challenges posed by authoritarian regimes, and our partnership is getting stronger."

She noted long-standing cooperation between NATO and Japan, as demonstrated by Stoltenberg's visit to Japan at the start of the year and the Japanese foreign minister's participation at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in April.

"The Secretary General has also invited the Prime Minister of Japan, as well as the leaders of our other Indo-Pacific partners, to the Vilnius Summit in July," Lungescu said.

"As to plans to open a liaison office in Japan, we won't go into the details of ongoing deliberations among NATO allies, but in general, NATO has offices and liaison arrangements with a number of international organizations and partner countries, and allies regularly assess those liaison arrangements to ensure that they best serve the needs of both NATO and our partners," she said.

 

Indonesia confirms ban on bauxite export

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has confirmed an export ban for bauxite starting in June 2023 to encourage domestic processing of a material used as the main ore source of aluminium.

The resource-rich nation has surprised markets with its commodity exports policies, including brief but controversial bans earlier this year on shipments of palm oil and coal, of which Indonesia is the world's biggest exporter.

It is also among the world's top suppliers of bauxite, with China its key buyer. The timing of Indonesia's ban, however, is in line with its current mining law.

The president said the bauxite ban aimed to replicate Indonesia's success in developing its nickel processing capacity after halting exports of its raw form in January 2020, which enticed foreign investors, mostly from China, to build local smelters.

The measure, which led to a dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO), also helped boost the value of Indonesia's exports.

"The government will remain consistent in implementing down streaming so the value add can be enjoyed domestically for the country's development and people's welfare," said Widodo, who is popularly known as Jokowi, emphasizing the importance of jobs creation.

China was the biggest importer of Indonesia's bauxite until Jakarta introduced a mineral export ban in 2014, which it lifted in 2017.

According to Wen Xianjun, a former head of the aluminium department at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Indonesia's 2014 ban prompted China to boost its efforts to develop aluminium resources in Africa instead.

"Compared with then, China's imports of bauxite are more diversified now," Wen said.

China imported 17.8 million tons of Indonesian bauxite in 2021, and 17.98 million tons in the first 11 months of year 2022, about 15.6% of its total imports, according to customs data.

Lately, three-month aluminium futures contract on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% at US$2,386.50 a ton, while the most-traded aluminium contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.2% to 18,595 yuan a ton.

The announcement by Indonesia is not expected to have significant impact on prices.

"It won't cause any major supply headwind as Indonesia now only accounts for a relatively small share of China's supply, Guinea and Australia will immediately make up the lost volume (after the ban)," an aluminium trader at a large trading house in China said.

Indonesia has four bauxite processing facilities with 4.3 million tons of alumina output capacity, while more are under construction with collective capacity of nearly 5 million tons, said chief economic minister Airlangga Hartarto.

Indonesia's bauxite reserves are enough for up to 100 years production, he said.

The country's mining law also states exports of other unprocessed minerals such as copper will also be stopped. Jokowi did not specify the timing of shipment bans on the other materials.

He said there was a possibility that legal action could be pursued against Indonesia for banning bauxite exports, but it would not deter him.

The WTO last month ruled in favour of the European Union in a dispute on nickel ore exports, which Indonesia is appealing.

 

 

 

G-7 agrees US$60/barrel price for Russian oil

The Group of Seven (G7) nations and Australia on Friday said they had agreed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil after European Union members overcame resistance from Poland and hammered out a political agreement earlier in the day. The price cap would take effect on December 05, 2022 or very soon thereafter. Details of the deal are due to be published in the EU legal journal on Sunday.

The Group of Seven (G7) is an intergovernmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; additionally, the European Union is a "non-enumerated member". It is officially organized around shared values of pluralism and representative government, with members making up world's largest IMF advanced economies and liberal democracies. As of 2020, G7 members account for over half of global net wealth (at over US$200 trillion), 32 to 46 percent of global gross domestic product, and 10 percent of the world's population (770 million people). Members are great powers in global affairs and maintain mutually close political, economic, diplomatic, and military relations

The nations said they anticipated that any revision of the price would include a form of grandfathering to allow compliant transactions concluded before the change.

"The Price Cap Coalition may also consider further action to ensure the effectiveness of the price cap," the statement read. No details were immediately available on what further actions could be taken.

The price cap, a G7 idea, aims to reduce Russia's income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on December 05, 2022.

Warsaw had resisted the proposed level as it examined an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap below the market price. It had pushed in EU negotiations for the cap to be as low as possible to squeeze revenues to Russia and limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.

Polish Ambassador to the EU Andrzej Sados on Friday told reporters Poland had backed the EU deal, which included a mechanism to keep the oil price cap at least 5% below the market rate. US officials said the deal was unprecedented and demonstrated the resolve of the coalition opposing Russia's war.

A spokesperson for the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency and oversees EU countries' negotiations, said it had launched the written procedure for all 27 EU countries to formally green light the deal, following Poland's approval.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the price cap would significantly reduce Russia's revenues.

"It will help us stabilize global energy prices, benefiting emerging economies around the world," von der Leyen said on Twitter, adding that the cap would be "adjustable over time" to react to market developments.

The G7 price cap will allow non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it will prohibit shipping, insurance and re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold for less than the price cap.

Because the most important shipping and insurance firms are based in G7 countries, the price cap would make it very difficult for Moscow to sell its oil for a higher price.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the cap will particularly benefit low- and medium-income countries that have borne the brunt of high energy and food prices.

"With Russia’s economy already contracting and its budget increasingly stretched thin, the price cap will immediately cut into Putin’s most important source of revenue," Yellen said in a statement.

A senior US Treasury Department official told reporters on Friday that the US$60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil will keep global markets well supplied while institutionalizing discounts created by the threat of such a limit.

The chair of the Russian lower house's foreign affairs committee told Tass news agency on Friday the European Union was jeopardizing its own energy security.

The initial G7 proposal last week was for a price cap of $65-$70 per barrel with no adjustment mechanism. Since Russian Urals crude already traded lower, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia pushed for a lower price.

Russian Urals crude traded at around $67 a barrel on Friday.

EU countries have wrangled for days over the details, with those countries adding conditions to the deal - including that the price cap will be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, according to diplomats and an EU document.

The document also said a 45-day transitional period would apply to vessels carrying Russian crude that was loaded before December 05 and unloaded at its final destination by January 19, 2023.

QUAD slams coercive attempts to alter status quo in Indo-Pacific

In unprecedentedly strong language, the leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) expressed opposition to coercive, provocative or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific.

The joint statement, issued after the leaders of Japan, Australia, India and the United States met for a summit in Tokyo on Tuesday, did not mention China by name, but the finger-pointing was clear.

The leaders were less clear when it came to Russia. The joint statement avoided blaming Russia directly for the war in Ukraine and only described the situation there as a ‘tragic crisis’.

The nuanced position reflected the difficult position of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has so far avoided tarnishing India's long-standing friendship with Moscow. In his opening remarks, Modi said a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific is a shared objective of all of us, but did not mention Russia or Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, new Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Modi met for two hours at the Japanese Prime Minister's office for the fourth summit of the group and their second in-person meeting, after one in Washington last September.

The attendance of Albanese, sworn in just a day earlier, reflected how prominent a platform the QUAD has become since the four countries formed an unofficial core group to lead the international assistance after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.

"Since we last met in person in September, an incident that overturns the rules-based international order has happened the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Kishida said in introductory remarks. "It is a blatant challenge to the principles set in the United Nations charter. We must not allow the same thing to happen in the Indo-Pacific."

Albanese, who was offered the opportunity to speak first after Kishida, said, "My government is committed to working with your countries and we are committed to the Quad.

"The new Australian government's priorities align with the QUAD agenda, taking action on climate change, and building a stronger and more resilient Indo-Pacific region through better economic security, better cybersecurity, better energy security and better environmental and health security," Albanese said.

Biden said that the world is navigating a dark hour in our shared history, in reference to the Ukraine war. This is more than just a European issue. It's a global issue.

"As long as Russia continues the war, the United States will work with our partners to help lead a global response because it's going to affect all parts of the world," Biden said.

Meanwhile, Modi commended the group's coordination in areas such as coronavirus vaccine delivery and climate actions, and said: "The QUAD has a constructive agenda for the Indo-Pacific, which will further strengthen its image as a force for good."

A joint statement issued after the meeting indirectly slammed China's actions in the East and South China seas.

"We strongly oppose any coercive, provocative or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo and increase tensions in the area, such as the militarization of disputed features, the dangerous use of coast guard vessels and maritime militia, and efforts to disrupt other countries' offshore resource exploitation activities," it said.

The leaders agreed to hold the next in-person summit in Australia next year.

India's role in the regional security landscape is becoming more critical, after the border clashes of June 2020 made India's military one of the very few to have faced the Chinese People's Liberation Army on the field in recent years.

The QUAD summit comes three months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has raised concerns in Asia about unilateral changes to the status quo.

India has historically had strong defense ties with Russia and abstained from United Nations votes against Moscow, taking a stance distinct from other QUAD members. As such, how the four QUAD nations will unite and align over the pressing security issues will be closely watched.

Shamshad Ahmad Khan, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at the BITS Pilani Dubai Campus, said the QUAD summit is taking place at a time when the Russian onslaught in Ukraine continues, North Korea is planning another missile test, experts in strategic circles are speculating on a Ukraine-type invasion of Taiwan by China, and Beijing's expansionist designs are a cause of security concerns for Japan and India.

Khan said China remains the biggest geopolitical challenge for India but added that given the economic interdependence of the two countries, they are involved in a dialogue to resolve their boundary issues.

"India is not likely to aggressively counterbalance China, and that is visible when you see the QUAD taking up softer security issues, climate change, vaccine diplomacy, while the newly formed AUKUS alliance of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States aims to take up increasing defense cooperation to counterbalance China, he told Nikkei Asia.

Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of Chinese studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, agreed that India sees Beijing as its biggest geopolitical challenge but took a different view on economic interdependence.

The professor said that India - which is estimated to grow at a rate of about 8% in the ongoing financial year - has received only US$8.2 billion investment from China. "That is quite a ridiculous amount," he said, observing that in contrast Beijing has invested a whopping US$52 billion in Pakistan, whose economy is going through a crisis.

At the QUAD, the leaders discussed a new maritime initiative called the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA), which will connect existing surveillance centers in India, Singapore, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu to share information and monitor activities on the sea.

"This addresses a real need and something that the administration has heard a true demand signal from almost across the region ... The ability to know what is happening in countries' territorial waters and in their exclusive economic zones," a senior US administration official told reporters.

After the summit, the leaders held an event to open applications for the Quad Fellowship, which will sponsor 100 American, Australian, Indian, and Japanese students to study in the US for graduate degrees in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields.

The QUAD meeting came on the last day of Biden's five-day Asia trip, which will likely be remembered for the president's bombshell statement on Monday that the US would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan.

On Tuesday, Biden was asked by a reporter if the policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan was dead. He responded, "No."

Asked to elaborate, the president said "No," again.

Asked whether he would send troops to Taiwan if China invaded, Biden only noted, "The policy has not changed at all. I stated that when I made my statement yesterday."

 

Lithium price rises to record high level

According to a report by South China Morning Post, lithium metal price in the Chinese market reached US$315,000/ton; just days after Argentinean President Alberto Fernandez signed his country up for China’s Belt and Road Initiative during a high-profile trip to Beijing this month.

The spot price has risen to this level for the first time – more than four times what it cost a year ago.

The two countries happen to be the world’s major players in the supply chain of the metal – an essential material used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries.

Argentina is located in a region with the highest concentrations of the mineral – South America’s so-called Lithium Triangle, which contains more than half of the world’s reserves.

Chinese companies are the biggest buyers and investors of lithium mines around the globe and refine two-thirds of the world’s lithium.

A vast deposit of one of the most highly coveted metals on Earth could potentially be located in the region around Mount Everest, according to Chinese scientists.

The researchers’ discovery of lithium near the world’s tallest mountain comes as global demand for the metal has been skyrocketing, sending prices to record levels and further fuelling geopolitical competition for strategic resources.

The ore deposit may contain as much as 1.0125 million tons of lithium oxide, according to the group of scientists from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).

But it is not yet known how much the new Himalayan deposit – dubbed Qiongjiagang, after the nearest peak – could be worth.

It may also be the country’s third-largest lithium deposit after one at the Bailong Mountain site in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, and the Jiajika deposit in Sichuan province, according to a report by China Science Daily.

The content rate of lithium oxide in the newly discovered deposit is also high enough to be of “industrial value”, according to the report.

“The Qiongjiagang lithium pegmatite deposit has good conditions for mining,” Qin Kezhang, Head of Research Team, was quoted as saying.

He pointed to the shallowness of the deposit and the quality of the ore, in noting that it would be relatively easy to mine and extract. He also said it is also in a favorable location, geographically – far from the heart of the Qomolangma nature preserve and still accessible. Qomolangma is the Tibetan name for Everest.

However, Qin said, exploitation of the lithium deposit is a long way off, as it is still in the initial “pre-study” phase.

As major economies are all aiming to shift to electric cars in the global fight against climate change, the silvery-white metal has been increasingly considered “new oil” or “white gold”, as it is an essential component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries.

According to an estimate from the International Energy Agency, global demand for lithium would grow by more than 4,000% by 2040 if the world achieves its climate goals.

Currently, 85% of lithium comes from Latin America and Australia, according to market intelligence provider IHS Markit. The two regions are home to 64% of the world’s known lithium, according to the 2022 Mineral Commodity Summary from the United States Geological Survey.

The newly discovered deposit is said to be a type of lithium-bearing rock called spodumene – the same as that from Australia – while deposits in Latin America are found in brine lakes spanning the borders of Bolivia, Argentina and Chile – known as the Lithium Triangle.

As the world’s biggest EV market, Chinese companies refine two-thirds of the world’s lithium and dominate the global battery production.

That dominance has triggered concerns among the United States and its allies, which have vowed to reduce their supply-chain dependence on China.

Meanwhile, three quarters of the mineral supply in China relies on imports. More than 96 per cent of spodumene exports from Australia go to China, IHS Markit’s data showed, while more and more Chinese companies are venturing into Latin America for mining projects.

Overcrowding of warships in South China Sea

Senior Chinese diplomats have called on the United States not to show off its power over the South China Sea and warned of the risk of a misfire in the disputed waters with increasing presence of naval vessels.

Speaking to a South China Sea forum in Sanya, on the Southern Chinese island province of Hainan, via video link, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi blamed an unspecified country for seeking to show off its power and maritime dominance.

“We must adhere to multilateralism and jointly maintain maritime order. The ocean is not a zero-sum game of competition, and no one should use the ocean as a tool to impose unilateral power,” Wang said.

“We oppose that certain countries, for the purpose of safeguarding maritime hegemony, flaunt their forces and form cliques at sea, and continue to infringe on the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of other countries.”

China and the US have been stepping up their military presence in the disputed waters, with increasing risks of an accidental clash. Concerns have escalated as the US has teamed up with its allies, including Britain and France, to send naval vessels to the South China Sea. Diplomatic observers have warned the consequences would be more serious if there was a clash between nuclear submarines.

Last month, the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group and the British carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth conducted a series of exercises in the South China Sea. It was the USS Carl Vinson’s ninth visit to the area this year.

The South China Sea is heavily contested between China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. The US is not a claimant, but accuses Beijing of stoking military tensions and restricting freedom of navigation there, and has said its presence is needed to provide security backup to its Asian allies.

“China calls on the United States to actively consider joining the convention and take concrete actions to participate in the defence of the international maritime rule of law,” he said.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, former president of the Philippines, said the tensions and troubles in the South China Sea were posing “grave threats” to stability, and Southeast Asian nations were seriously concerned.

“Imagine what an exchange of fire between warships of the People’s Liberation Army and the US Seventh Fleet would do to stock, currency and commodity markets worldwide,” she asked the forum.

“The world hopes that such an unwelcome event remains pure imagination. But there are reasons to worry. For the first time in years, if not ever, aircraft carrier groups of China and America deployed in the South China Sea at the same time; so did French and British warships. Earlier this year, the presence of hundreds of Chinese vessels near Whitsun Reef led to Philippine diplomatic protests and the exchange of unfriendly words between Manila and Beijing.”

Arroyo said the South China Sea disputes had previously been managed by the expansion of economic and diplomatic ties among the nations involved, and with a balance of power.

“Now, the balance of power approach is increasingly being taken with the growing presence of American and allied forces in the South China Sea, which will get even more formidable with the Aukus, to which the PLA may feel the need to respond,” she said, referring to the deal struck with the US and Britain to help Australia acquire a nuclear submarine fleet.

A Pentagon report last week said China’s navy had expanded to 355 ships and submarines by 2020. It said the Chinese navy had placed a high priority on modernizing its submarine forces, operating six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), and 46 diesel-powered attack submarines (SSs).

But Wu Jianghao, assistant Chinese foreign minister, said China had engaged in discussions with other South China Sea claimants on joint exploration of its resources and a code of conduct.

“We must oppose maritime hegemony, division and confrontation, and build the ocean into a territory where all parties expand cooperation, rather than a zero-sum arena,” he told the forum.

 

Aukus pact attracts mixed response from Asia

It’s been nearly a month since the United States, Britain and Australia stunned the world with their new Aukus pact that will deliver a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra. China reacted with rage, angered by what it saw as a clear move by the West to further encircle it. 

France, meanwhile, felt deeply betrayed by Australia’s eleventh hour decision to cancel a long-standing submarine deal with it in place of the new deal. Others have quietly applauded Aukus, and there are some governments that have maintained a stoic silence. 

It is necessary to critically review the diverse responses to one of the most significant security developments in recent decades. 

Asia’s varied reactions to the Aukus security pact between Australia, Britain and the United States offered a fresh indication of just how diverse the region is when it comes to their outlook on the future of the region’s balance of power.

Expectedly, reactions from Australia were particularly fulsome, given that Canberra is the biggest beneficiary of the pact. 

Under the deal, Australia will become only the second country after Britain to receive nuclear-powered submarine technology from the US. 

Prime Minister, Scott Morrison’s government plans to have a fleet of eight nuclear-powered submarines operationally ready in the 2040s.

Among Australia’s foreign policy elite, the move — which resulted in the scrapping of an earlier order for French diesel-powered submarines — was an urgent necessity given fears about increasing Chinese naval assertions in the neighbourhood.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, China responded in blistering fashion and lost no time in painting the pact as the latest effort by the West to strategically encircle the Asian superpower.

Beijing described the deal as “extremely irresponsible”, and mainland analysts echoed that view. 

Lu Xiang, a US-China scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told soon after the deal was announced that it indicated that Australia was “tying itself completely to America’s chariot”.

Reactions by governments elsewhere in Asia put in focus how they viewed the deal through the prism of their own national interests. 

In India, for example, some strategic watchers lamented: what about us? In their view, New Delhi should have been offered the US nuclear submarine technology first, given their intensifying strategic ties in recent years. 

In Japan, contrastingly, the Aukus deal was welcomed amid anxieties over whether Tokyo’s defensive-minded military had the ability to contend with increasing Chinese assertions. 

The government stated publicly that it welcomed the three Western allies strengthening “their commitment to the region”.

Reactions from Southeast Asia -home to the deftest of geopolitical fence sitters - naturally was mixed. 

Singapore, seen as one of Washington’s closest strategic partners in the region, was cautious not to be effusive about the pact. Instead, officials said they understood why the deal was struck and hoped it would contribute constructively to regional peace. 

Neighbouring Malaysia, meanwhile, said it was concerned the pact would “catalyze a nuclear arms race” in the Indo-Pacific.

The Philippines offered what appeared to be a full throated support, with Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin saying he viewed Australia’s submarine procurement plan as an “enhancement of a near-abroad ally’s ability to project power” to “restore and keep the balance” of power in the region. It would be foolhardy to consider these positions as set in stone, however. 

Thus far, countries that have maintained strategic silence or offered support for Aukus appear to have taken at face value Australia’s promise that the pact is not aimed at third parties, including China.

But if there is increased volatility in the South China Sea and other hotspots arising from the deal, expect countries to alter their positions quickly. There are after all no permanent friends or enemies in Asian geopolitics — only permanent interests.

US, UK and Australia forging military alliance against China

The United States, Britain and Australia have forged a historic security alliance to strengthen military capabilities in the Pacific, allowing them to share advanced defence technologies and giving Australian forces nuclear submarine technology. The move, announced on Wednesday, extends Washington’s drive for military cooperation.

To begin the “Aukus” security partnership, naval officials and technical specialists from the three countries will work together over the next 18 months to give Australia the nuclear technology that will allow it to deploy submarines “to improve deterrence across the Indo-Pacific”, said a senior official from US President Joe Biden’s administration.

“We undertake this effort as part of a larger constellation of steps, including stronger bilateral partnerships with our traditional security partners in Asia – Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines – and also stronger engagements with new partners like India, Vietnam and new formations like the Quad,” the official said, referring to the security grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia.

“This is an historic announcement. It reflects the Biden administration’s determination to build stronger partnerships to sustain peace and stability across the entire Indo-Pacific region.”

The three countries will also cooperate on integrating artificial intelligence, quantum computing and undersea capabilities into their military operations.

At a joint press conference with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and British leader Boris Johnson, Biden said the initiative was needed to ensure the US and its allies had the “most modern capabilities we need to manoeuvre and defend against rapidly evolving threats”.

“We need to be able to address both the current strategic environment in the region and how it may evolve because the future of each of our nations, and indeed the world, depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific enduring and flourishing in the decades ahead,” Biden said.

The nuclear-powered submarines will be built in Adelaide with “in close cooperation” with Britain and the US, said Morrison.

Johnson called the undertaking “one of the most complex and technically demanding projects in the world”.

“Only a handful of countries possess nuclear-powered submarines,” he said. “And it is a momentous decision for any nation to acquire this formidable capability, and perhaps equally momentous for any other state to come to its aid.”

While all three leaders cast the initiative as an effort to bring “stability” to the Indo-Pacific region, none made any explicit mention of China.

Asked whether the formation of Aukus was meant to counter China’s military build-up, the US official said the move “is not aimed or about any one country”, adding that “it’s about advancing our strategic interests, upholding the international rules-based order and promoting peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific”.

The official said that Biden did not mention the Aukus initiative specifically when he spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, but that the US leader “did underscore our determination to play a strong, strong role in the Indo-Pacific”.

Asked on Wednesday about the new security alliance, Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said that countries “should not build exclusionary blocs targeting or harming the interests of third parties”.

“In particular, they should shake off their Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice,” Liu said.

While Beijing may seek to downplay the new pact by calling it an outdated ideological move, there was “no doubt” about the initiative’s significance, said Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert in Chinese military and security policy at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

“Not only for the content of the deal, but it shows innovation in how US allies and partners are thinking of working together,” she said. “It’s more than the usual exercises and air shows.”

News of the trilateral alliance comes as China’s People’s Liberation Army steps up aerial drills near Taiwan and in the South China Sea, where China’s territorial claims have been contested by Washington and other countries in the region.

Against this backdrop, Beijing will not buy the Biden administration’s assertion that Aukus is not a specific reaction to China’s military rise, said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

“Beijing will see this as part of US efforts to forge coalitions aimed at pushing back against China, and they aren’t wrong,” she said. “The Chinese need to recognize that this assertive behavior is drawing democratic countries to cooperate in new ways to defend their interests.”

Charles Edel, an expert in Indo-Pacific security issues, viewed Wednesday’s announcement as the latest example of Biden’s rejection of the go-it-alone approach that characterized his predecessor’s China policy, and “a signal that the United States is willing to invest more responsibilities into its allies than it has in the past”.

 “The bet that’s clearly being placed here is that, in response to increasing Chinese capabilities and the turn to a more threatening Chinese foreign policy, more allies are going to become more capable, and that that will serve as a greater deterrent to the Chinese, both militarily and politically,” said Edel, a global fellow at the Wilson Centre in Washington and senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre.

At Wednesday’s press conference, Morrison stressed that the submarines would be nuclear in propulsion only, rather than carrying nuclear weapons. “We will continue to meet all our nuclear weapons,” he said.

But nuclear power alone carried with it significant tactical advantages that had obvious applications when it came to countering China’s military presence in the Indo-Pacific, said Edel.

Besides increased payload capabilities, nuclear-powered submarines had greater endurance and could remain in deep waters for longer periods of times, said Edel. “They are, at depth, less detectable, so that’s a deterrent,” he said. “When we think about the extraordinary production of Chinese ground-based missiles that basically blanket the entire South China Sea – without necessarily a counterbalancing force other than the US – this then, I think, is a partial answer to that.”

Biden’s other geopolitical initiatives since taking office, including his efforts to bolster ties with NATO and the G7 and the shaping of the QUAD, have specifically included language about countering China’s growing influence.

The administration official cited Biden’s planned in-person meeting with Morrison and the other Quad leaders next week at the White House, and suggested that the presence of British aircraft carriers in the South China Sea in recent months figured into the strengthening military alliance.

“You have just seen the substantial deployment of British forces throughout the Indo-Pacific very successful deployments of the aircraft carriers, supporting ships, lots of valuable port engagements,” he said. “Our strategic discussions … transcended several months of very deep, very high level engagements with both our military commands, our political leadership and the people closest to our leaders in order to chart a common path on the way forward.”

The establishment of Aukus follows a warning on Tuesday by Glaser, former US National Security Council, Deputy National Security adviser Zack Cooper and other military analysts that the US needs stronger military partnerships in region.

“China’s modernizing military … poses the greatest challenge in the world,” they said in a white paper on how Washington should respond to challenges posed by Beijing. “China is not a global military peer competitor of the US … but it has developed a robust capability to fight effectively in the areas within the first island chain, which runs north to south from Japan in the East China Sea, to Taiwan, to the Philippines in the South China Sea.”

“Long-term success will depend on the US making significant advances in its regional diplomacy with new partners who feel threatened by Beijing’s military modernization and grey zone assertiveness, even as many have strong trade, investment and financial ties with China,” they said.

But in the wake of Wednesday’s announcement, it remains a possibility that Beijing will respond to Washington’s growing alliances with increased assertion, said Ali Wyne, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group and an expert in US-China relations.

“A big question is whether China will recalibrate, recognizing that it is engendering greater resistance among advanced industrial democracies or instead adduce that resistance as evidence that it needs to double down on its current course of diplomacy.”

Israeli weapons used against Taliban in Afghanistan

From drones to missiles and armored vehicles, Israeli-made weapons systems helped coalition forces against Taliban fighters. Though Israeli troops have never been on the ground in the war-torn central Asian country, numerous coalition nations used Israeli systems during the 20 years of fighting against the radical jihadist terrorist group.

While many Israeli defense companies have stayed mum on the use of their products in Afghanistan, according to multiple reports, countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Australia have used their products for years.

Numerous countries used remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) to collect intelligence, and Israeli-made SPIKE missiles were used in battle. Troops were also able to drive around safely in high-intensity areas in Israeli-made MRAP (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected) military light tactical vehicles.

One of the main Israeli weapons systems used by foreign militaries in Afghanistan was drones.

Foreign reports state that Israel is considered a leading exporter of drones and has sold such systems to numerous countries including Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea.

The German Air Force began operating the Heron TP, manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), in Afghanistan in 2010. They were involved in thousands of missions, logging thousands of flight hours.

The Heron TPs are IAI’s most advanced RPAs with 40-hour endurance, a maximum take-off weight of 11,685 pounds, and a payload of 2,204 pounds. They can be used for reconnaissance, combat and support roles, and can carry air-to-ground missiles to take out hostile targets.

The German pilots were trained in Israel regarding how to operate the RPA and learn about its surveillance capabilities.

The Canadian military and the Australians also flew IAI’s Heron 1 RPA in Afghanistan.

Equipped with satellite data link and electro-optical infrared sensors, the Heron 1 is not only able to provide reconnaissance to ground forces in combat situations, assist in convoying and patrolling, create movement profiles, and carry out long-term monitoring, but it is also able to track down explosives from the air.

Several of them crashed in Afghanistan.

But it wasn’t only the Heron that was flying in Afghanistan’s skies.

Since 2005, the Australian Army in Afghanistan has also flown the Skylark 1 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) manufactured by Elbit Systems.

The Skylark, measuring seven and a half feet, is used by troops for tactical surveillance and close-range counter-terror missions. It can be launched by one or two soldiers, and is operated on the roof of buildings or in the back of armored personnel carriers, providing live video to operators once airborne.

With a range of 10-15 km, the mini-UAV has an exceptionally quiet electric motor and outstanding observation capabilities giving troops beyond-line-of-sight intelligence, enhancing their performance in various mission scenarios.

Australia also flew the Skylark during missions in Iraq.

In addition to RPAs, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems’ Spike NLOS (Non Line Of Sight) missile was used by both the British and Canadians in Afghanistan.

The missile’s precision proved useful in battles against the Taliban. Although the Brits tried to keep its use quiet, they publicly admitted to using the missile, known as Exactor, in 2014.

The Spike NLOS is capable of penetrating 39 inches of armor, and can be operated in either direct attack or mid-course navigation based on target coordinates only. These modes enable the defeat of long-range hidden targets with pinpoint precision, damage assessment, and the obtaining of real-time intelligence.

It has a range of 25 km and can be used with a number of warheads such as heat, fragmentation, PBF (penetration, blast and fragmentation) and PBF/F suited for urban and high-intensity conflicts. The missile, which can be installed on a variety of platforms, provides the gunner with the ability to attack targets at stand-off range and get real-time intelligence and damage assessment following the strikes.

Though Israel does not comment on foreign reports, Iranian media reported in 2019 that troops were sent to Afghanistan to collect intelligence on Iranian military movement.

According to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, Israeli troops operated out of a United States Air Force base in Shindand in the western Afghanistan province of Herat some 75 km from the Iranian border and were collecting intelligence on Iranian movement around the Persian Gulf region.

Russia’s Sputnik News stated at the time that the Israelis were operating “under the flags of the United States and the United Arab Emirates.”

Sputnik quoted an expert on Israel as saying that the Israeli troops were operating under the framework of American forces stationed there, and that the activity was carried out with the knowledge and approval of the Afghan government.

As Western forces leave Afghanistan and the Taliban solidifies its power over the country, the jihadist group has also obtained advanced American weaponry, including some drones.

But with the Canadians, Brits and Germans having ended their fight several years ago, it’s unlikely that the Taliban got their hands on the Israeli-made systems that hunted them for so long.

Should Bangladesh join QUAD or not?

Ever since I have created this blog site in 2012, one of my observations is that super powers in a bid to establish their hegemony in a region follow different polices. The sole objective remains making weaker countries subservient. 

First these countries are lured, in case the objective is not achieved super powers go the extent of creating internal turmoil and then demand regime change. 

It is known to all and sundry that United States and China are witnessing growing hostility in South China Sea area. Following cold war era policy, United States creates proxies. The strategy paid off in the Middle East and now it is being replicated in South China Seas. To achieve its motive, United States has joined hands with Australia, India, and Japan. Now efforts are being made to include Bangladesh in the alliance. It was expected that persuading Bangladesh would be easy because India has been godfathering since independence. It also appears that China would also use its strategic tools to keep Bangladesh under its influence.

Lately, Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming said Bangladesh’s relations with China will be ‘substantially damaged’ if Bangladesh joins the US-led initiative, Quad. China considers Quad — a strategic alliance of the US, Japan, India and Australia — as a minor group with anti-China motives.

Bangladesh Foreign Minister A K Abdul Momen was prompt in responding and said that China has crossed the line while talking about Quad. Momen said Bangladesh is yet to take any decision regarding Quad. Besides, Bangladesh is fully sovereign and will take the decision which is good for the country.

Momen said we set our foreign policy. Any country can express its opinions. But we’ll decide our course of action based on the fundamental principle we follow for the welfare of our country.

The minister further said generally China does not interfere in the affairs of other countries. I never heard them talking so aggressively to anyone. This is a matter of regret that another country is trying to dictate what we should or should not do. We’ll do whatever is beneficial for the country.

The desperation of United States became evident when Ned Price of the US State Department Spokesman said at a briefing “Well have taken note of that statement of the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh.” He also said, “We respect Bangladesh’s sovereignty, and we respect Bangladesh’s right to make foreign policy decisions for itself.”

He said the US has an incredibly strong relationship with Bangladesh and both the countries work closely with partners on a range of issues, from economic growth to climate change to humanitarian issues.

“We’ve said this before, the Quad, is an informal, essential, multilateral mechanism that right now conveys – convenes likeminded democracies – the United States, India, Australia, and Japan – to coordinate in the Indo-Pacific, and fundamentally, to push forward our goal of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.

China building iron ore hub in Africa

It seems Chinese state planners have realized their glaring vulnerability, high dependence on iron ore from Australia. Perhaps that is why China is looking at an impoverished but mineral rich country in West Africa, Guinea, as the potential partner that would free it from the dependence on Australia, which has turned a foe after joining Quad.

Guinea sits atop the world's largest reserve of untapped high-quality iron ore. Surely it is no coincidence, then, that on 4th March 2021, the first batch of China-donated COVID-19 vaccines arrived in Guinea, one of the first nations to receive the Chinese gift. 

The change in Chinese strategy can be best understood by reading two briefs. The stock market turmoil linked to US investment firm Archegos Capital Management appears to have hit Japan's biggest financial player, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Its security unit said it faces a potential loss estimated at $300 million at a European unit.

In worrying news for Apple, its partner and top iPhone assembler Foxconn said that the global chip shortage will cut its shipments by 10% a rare acknowledgment that shows some of the world's biggest consumer names might face headwinds from the supply crunch rocking the tech industry.

Further clarity can be obtained by a quick review of rise and fall of Japan.
 
"No other nation at the present time is spending so large a part of its revenue on naval preparations," military author Hector Bywater wrote in the 1921 book "Sea-Power in the Pacific." But Japan had a critical weakness: lack of steel. Japan's ambition to become the dominant Pacific naval power was brought to a standstill when the US imposed a steel embargo in 1917.
  

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

Quad holds first virtual summit

Member countries of the Quadrilateral Framework (Quad) held a virtual summit on Friday. Addressing the meeting, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US President Joe Biden, Japanese Premier Yoshihide Suga and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison highlighted cooperation among the member countries to beat the global COVID-19 pandemic, with joint partnership on vaccines, and emphasized the need for an open and free Indo-Pacific region. 

“We are united by our democratic values and our commitment to a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. Our agenda, covering areas like vaccines, climate change, and emerging technologies make the Quad a force for global good. We will work together, closer than ever before on advancing our shared values and promoting a secure, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” said Modi, who described the Quadrilateral Framework as an “important pillar of stability in the region.”

The member nations agreed to ensure equitable access to vaccines to counter the pandemic. A joint statement, titled ‘The Spirit of the Quad’ said, “We will join forces to expand safe, affordable, and effective vaccine production and equitable access to speed economic recovery and benefit global health.”

Addressing the meeting, President Biden emphasized that the Indo-Pacific region should be governed in accordance to human rights.

 “And we're renewing our commitment to ensure that our region is governed by international law, committed to upholding universal values and free from coercion. We’ve got a big agenda ahead of us,” said Biden.

Addressing the gathering, Morrison laid out the agenda of the Quad in the near future and said, “We join together as leaders of nations to welcome, what I think will be a new dawn in the Indo-Pacific through our gathering.”

Prime Minister Suga acknowledged the new dynamism that Quad has received because of the meeting of the top leaders of the member countries.

 “With the four countries working together, I wish to firmly advance our cooperation to realise, a free and open Indo Pacific, and to make a tangible contribution to the peace, stability, and prosperity of the region, including overcoming COVID-19,” he said.

The ‘Quad’, has been taken to the apex level, said Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla during a special briefing on the leaders’ summit.

“We are all committed to free and open, inclusive, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific. Today’s summit adopted a positive vision to address contemporary issues with vaccine cooperation. Leaders agreed to strengthen, peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Shringla, who described the focus on the vaccines as the “most pressing”.

He informed that Japan, US and Australia will finance the vaccine initiative that India has welcomed.

“We look forward to participating in the initiative whole-heartedly. During the discussion there was wholesome appreciation of the Vaccine Maitri initiative,” said Shringla.

The vaccine expert working group, a critical and emerging technology working group, and a climate working group for technology, capacity building and climate finance have been cleared during the summit. The Foreign Secretary also said the Quad leaders have agreed to meet in person during the coming months.

“The Quad does not stand against anything, it stands for something,” said Shringla, explaining that Quad is a value-based grouping that is trying to deal with the need for vaccines, climate change and other such issues. He informed that the issue of military takeover in Myanmar came up during the discussion among the leaders.

Quad seeking collaborative defence arrangement to counter China

The effectiveness with which Russia and China have been able to exploit situations to make territorial gains has exposed a chronic vulnerability for collective defence regimes. Collective defence risks are becoming weaker for an era of strategic competition in the grey zone. The Quad implicitly acknowledges this and has developed as a collaborative defence arrangement that has the capacity to respond to the sorts of threats China poses.

For the Quad to succeed, Australia, India, Japan and the United States need to work together using force—or tactics that is either above or slightly below the threshold of armed conflict to block Chinese attempts to seize territory. They members need a coherent strategy to counter China’s other activities below the threshold of armed conflict.

This requires broad understanding of the defence using different elements of national power to counter a range of coercive threats. Each member needs to understand which levers should be pulled at what times in a coherent strategy that thwarts Beijing’s ability to achieve its political objectives at each stage of competition or conflict.

The more coercive the power China mobilizes, the fewer levers of national power the Quad members would need to pull. In a hypothetical example in the first part of this series, let us explore how Quad members might develop an effective military response to a Chinese attempt to seize Pratas Island from Taiwan. In that case, the four members of the Quad would be pulling down heavily on the military levers of national power—albeit at different stages of the conflict and in different theatres.

Responding to the most coercive of China’s threats is the easiest part of the Quad’s job. It gets harder if China mobilizes less coercive power when threatening the Quad’s interests in the Indo-Pacific. This is where the distinction between collective defence and collaborative defence becomes the key.

Over time, China has reclaimed land and transformed islands into military facilities that have increased its ability to project power across the Western Pacific. This has raised the costs for the US to defend its treaty allies, which undermines its presence in Asia.

For Japan and Australia, China’s South China Sea facilities pose a threat to the freedom of navigation each relies on for trade.

In India, the stakes may not be as high, but any erosion of international norms in the South China Sea would set an unwelcome precedent as the Chinese military increases its presence in the Indian Ocean. The differing stakes for each country in the Quad have made a collective response impossible.

However, an effective response to China’s grey-zone coercion need not be ‘collective’. In 2017, Ely Ratner, Biden’s top China adviser at the Pentagon, argued in Foreign Affairs that the US should ‘abandon its neutrality and help countries in the region defend their claims’.

Ratner suggested that the US help treaty allies such as the Philippines with joint land-reclamation projects, increased arms sales and improved basing access. Other Quad members would also need to draw upon their own bilateral partnerships to help claimant states build resilience to Beijing’s grey-zone operations. The Quad would be a subtle means of helping Southeast Asian claimants defend their sovereignty against China’s creeping expansionism.

Ratner’s proposal shows collaborative defence in action with the aid of the Indo-Pacific’s established great power. While Washington is laying the groundwork to compete with China in the grey zone, Australia could strengthen its maritime capacity-building initiatives and joint naval exercises with Malaysia and Indonesia in archipelagic Southeast Asia.

India and Japan could each increase the frequency of their bilateral naval exercises with Vietnam. The Quad could agree to conduct Exercise Malabar in the South China Sea, while members of the ‘blue dot network’ could jointly finance critical infrastructure projects in littoral states. An effective strategy would require each Quad member to use a mix of diplomacy, aid, military exchanges, arms sales, joint exercises and new basing infrastructure.

None of these initiatives will achieve results immediately, but nor did China’s island-building campaign. Over time, each initiative will shift the burden of escalation back to China. With each Quad member working independently and collaboratively to embolden claimant states to defend their maritime rights, Beijing will incur new risks when rotating new fighters on Fiery Cross Reef or contemplating further incursions into the Natuna Islands.

Collaboration will allow each Quad member to find out how best to draw on its bilateral partnerships to embolden claimant states to defend their interests. The Quad will be invisible, but omnipresent in Southeast Asia. That’s precisely the threat that Beijing doesn’t want to deal with.

To succeed as a collaborative defence arrangement, the Quad needs to be guided by three principles. Its members need to work independently on their bilateral relationships to improve claimant states’ ability to defend their interests; they must exercise together whenever strategic circumstances require it; and they need to share notes on regional strategy, knowing it will be much harder for China to secure further territorial gains if it’s on the back foot.