India: Dream of regional power threatened

India's 2024 general elections have marked a significant shift in the country's political landscape. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saw a decline in its dominance, could secure only 240 of 543 seats in the lower house, a drop from 303 seats in 2019. Despite this, Modi managed to secure a third term as prime minister, thanks to the support from allies within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which together hold 293 seats.

The Indian National Congress, previously nearing political irrelevance, made a strong comeback, winning 99 seats, almost doubling its previous count of 52. The coalition of parties known as INDIA, allied with Congress, now controls 234 seats. This resurgence indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, away from the BJP's Hindu nationalist ideology.

The BJP's decline is notable even in its traditional strongholds like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, where it suffered substantial losses.

Several factors contributed to the BJP's reduced appeal:

Despite Modi's efforts to energize his base by inaugurating a controversial temple, the party's Hindu nationalist message failed to resonate as strongly as before.

Economic issues played a crucial role; the benefits of India's impressive 8% annual economic growth have not reached the average citizen, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.

Inflation and unemployment remained significant concerns, with a large portion of the population living near or below the poverty line.

Modi's leadership, previously seen as a unifying force capable of driving reforms and attracting foreign investment, now faces challenges due to the political uncertainty introduced by the election results.

The necessity for the BJP to rely on coalition partners complicates its ability to enact policy changes and maintain stability.

This political fragmentation could deter international businesses and investors, who had hoped India, would serve as a viable alternative to China.

The elections have underscored the limitations of ideology as political capital for the BJP. Voters have expressed their concerns over the party's religious nationalism and its impact on the country's stability and security, prioritizing economic issues over ideological ones.

BJP will have to navigate the complex task of balancing governance with its ideological commitments, a challenge made more difficult by its weakened parliamentary position.

This new political reality suggests a return to coalition governance, potentially hampering India's aspirations on the global stage.

India: Modi sworn in PM for third term

Narendra Modi sworned in as India's prime minister on Sunday for a third term, after a shock poll setback that will test his ability to ensure policy certainty in a coalition government in the world's most populous nation.

President Droupadi Murmu administered the oath of office to Modi at a ceremony at the Rashtrapati Bhavan, the president's palace in New Delhi, attended by thousands of dignitaries, including the leaders of seven regional countries, Bollywood stars and industrialists.

"Honoured to serve Bharat," Modi posted on X, minutes before he was sworn in, referring to India's name in Indian languages.

Supporters cheered, clapped and chanted "Modi, Modi" as the name of the 73-year old leader, dressed in a white kurta tunic and blue half jacket, was called to take his oath.

Modi was followed by senior ministers in the previous government: Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and Piyush Goyal, among others. Their portfolios are expected to be announced after the swearing-in.

Modi, who started as a publicist of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological parent of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is only the second person after independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru to serve a third straight term as prime minister.

Modi secured the third term in elections that concluded on June 01, 2024 with the support of 14 regional parties in his BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), unlike in the previous two terms when his party won an outright majority.

The outcome is seen as a big setback to the popular leader as surveys and exit polls had predicted BJP would secure even more seats than in 2019.

Modi delivered world beating growth and lifted India's global standing but appeared to have missed a step at home as a lack of enough jobs, high prices, low incomes and religious faultlines pushed voters to rein him in.

When Modi was the chief minister of the western state of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014, BJP enjoyed strong majorities, allowing him to govern decisively.

Modi's new term as prime minister, therefore, is likely to be fraught with challenges on building consensus on contentious political and policy issues in the face of different interests of regional parties and a stronger opposition, analysts say.

Some analysts worry that the fiscal balance in the world's fastest growing economy could also come under pressure due to demands for higher development funds for states ruled by the NDA's regional partners and a possible push by BJP to spend more on welfare to woo back voters it lost in this year's election.

While the broad focus on building infrastructure, manufacturing and technology could continue, "contentious reforms could be delayed", said Samiran Chakraborty, Chief Economist, India at Citi Research.

"The BJP’s major coalition partners are politically unpredictable, sometimes working with the BJP and sometimes working against them," added Rick Rossow, the Chair in US-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"The larger parties that will be a part of his coalition are mostly agnostic on national-level issues and should not be applying a brake on economic reforms or security ties with the United States, Japan, and other key partners," he said.

Modi, whose election campaign was marked by religious rhetoric and criticism of the opposition for allegedly favouring India's 200 million minority Muslims has adopted a more conciliatory tone since the shock result.

"We have won the majority ... but to run the country it is unanimity that is crucial ... we will strive for unanimity," he said on Friday after the NDA formally named him coalition head.

Courtesy: Reuters

 

India: Modi heads for reduced majority

According to Saudi Gazette, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance may emerge victorious, but it is expected to fall well short of the landslide victory.

Modi’s BJP-led alliance is leading in more than 290 of 543 seats up for grabs, but for the first time in a decade the party looks set to fail to reach an outright majority by itself.

Many observers have been surprised by the strong opposition showing so far. The Congress and other allied opposition parties are projected to get more than 230 seats.

A slew of exit polls at the weekend showed the BJP-led NDA alliance on course for a super majority of two-thirds of parliament, which would have allowed it to make changes to the constitution.

Rahul Gandhi — of the opposition Congress party — told reporters on Tuesday that Modi and the BJP had been "punished" by voters at the ballot box.

Modi, who has retained his seat in Varanasi as he eyes a historic third consecutive term in office, had set a target of 370 seats for the BJP and 400 seats for his alliance. This was up from the 303 seats won by the BJP alone in the last general election in 2019.

Exactly how much of the vote has been counted so far remains unclear. However, as it stands, the BJP is not expected to get the 272 seats on its own that are needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament.

This means — for the first time — Modi would have to rely on smaller parties in the NDA to push through its agenda.

The election was seen by many as a referendum on Modi’s decade in office, during which he has transformed many aspects of life in India, so this would be a major upset. The mood in BJP offices around the country has been described by reporters as somber.

In contrast, at Congress headquarters, party workers have been celebrating the early results. The Indian markets, meanwhile, have been showing jitters — falling more than 2% — testifying to the fact that it’s not been a runaway result so far for the governing alliance.

An average 66% of voters took part in the election, official figures showed. It was the biggest such exercise the world has ever seen, with nearly a billion registered voters – about one in eight of the global population.

Voting was staggered over seven rounds between April 19 and June 01 for security and logistical reasons. Much of the election took place in extreme and deadly heat as temperatures in parts of India soared to nearly 50C.

The BJP and its rivals fought a fierce — at times vitriolic — campaign, with the prime minister denying that he was being divisive when he was accused by rivals of demonizing Muslims.

Modi toured the country, pointing to his achievements in areas such as delivering welfare schemes and raising India’s global profile.

Opposition parties highlighted cost of living issues, high unemployment — especially for young people — and fears that constitutional changes could disempower the disadvantaged. They also promised to stop India’s slide into autocracy.

A number of opposition leaders and government critics have been jailed in recent years, including Delhi’s chief minister Arvind Kejriwal who was taken into custody on corruption charges in April but later briefly released to allow him to campaign.

Kejriwal gets bail to campaign in elections

According to Reuters, India's top court gave temporary bail to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in a graft case on Friday, allowing him to campaign in the ongoing general elections, boosting the opposition alliance of which he is a prominent figure.

The Supreme Court said Kejriwl - a fierce critic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi - would be out on bail until June 01, the last day of the nationwide seven-phase vote, and would have to return to pre-trial detention on June 02.

India began voting on April 19 and elections for more than half of the 543 seats in parliament have now been completed following the third phase of the vote on May 07.

The two areas governed by Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) - the National Capital Territory that includes New Delhi, and the northern state of Punjab - go to the polls on May 25 and June 01 respectively.

Votes will be counted on June 04 and results are expected to be announced the same day.

"This is the victory of democracy," Kejriwal's wife Sunita posted on X after the court order.

AAP members began celebrating on hearing the news, beating drums, dancing and shouting slogans praising Kejriwal and criticising Modi as they gathered outside the party office in the capital.

"Today, the Supreme Court has struck a ray of hope in the hearts of the people who love this country, the constitution, and democracy...this is a victory of truth," Delhi Environment Minister and senior AAP leader Gopal Rai told reporters.

The court had said last week that it may consider granting Kejriwal temporary bail because of the elections, while it heard an appeal against his arrest, as that hearing could take a while to conclude.

Opposition parties have accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government of using investigative agencies to hurt its rivals, which the government denies.

Over the years Kejriwal has accused Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party of damaging democracy, promoting corruption, throttling governance in Delhi, abusing their power and attacking the federal structure of the constitution among other things.

The Enforcement Directorate, India's financial crime-fighting agency, arrested Kejriwal on March 21 in connection with corruption allegations related to the capital territory's liquor policy.

Kejriwal's government and his AAP have denied the allegations. Modi and BJP say the investigating agencies are only doing their job and the government is not influencing them.

Kejriwal has been in pre-trial detention since April 01, and his wife Sunita has stepped in to campaign for his decade-old party which has been hobbled by the detention also of two other senior leaders in the same case.

Members of the INDIA alliance of more than two dozen opposition parties - Modi's main challenger which includes the AAP - said they were pleased that Kejriwal had received bail.

Mamata Banerjee, chief minister of the eastern state of West Bengal and a key INDIA member, said she was very happy Kejriwal got bail. It will be very helpful in the context of the current elections, she posted on X.

Abhishek Manu Singhvi, Kejriwal's lawyer, had argued that Kejriwal was arrested just before the vote to stop him from campaigning against Modi, who opinion polls suggest will win a comfortable majority and secure a rare third straight term.

ED lawyers argued that giving bail to a politician just to campaign risked sending the message that there were different standards for such figures compared with other citizens.

 

 

Modi passes G20 gavel to Lula

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called an end on Sunday to the G20 Summit in New Delhi by passing on a ceremonial gavel to Brazil, which will take the bloc’s presidency.

“I want to congratulate Brazil’s president and my friend Lula da Silva, and hand over the presidency’s gavel to him,” Modi said.

Modi congratulated Lula, while handing him over the presidency of G20 after the closing session of the G20 Summit 2023 at the Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi

Brazil officially will take over the mantle of the presidency of the elite grouping on December 01, 2023. Speaking on the occasion, Lula congratulated Modi and thanked India for its efforts to give voice to the topics of interest to emerging economies.

Lula also listed social inclusion, the fight against hunger, energy transition and sustainable development as G20 priorities.

He said the UN Security Council needs new developing countries as permanent, non-permanent members to regain political strength.

“We want greater representation for emerging countries at the World Bank and the IMF,” he said.

“Brazilian presidency of the G20 has three priorities — first, social inclusion and fight against hunger. Second, energy transition and sustainable development in its three aspects... Third, the reform of global governance institutions.

“All these priorities are part of the Brazilian presidency motto which says ‘building a fair world and a sustainable planet’. Two task forces will be created — global alliance against hunger and poverty and the global mobilization against climate change.”

Lula said on Saturday that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would not be arrested in Brazil if he attends the Group of 20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro next year.

Interviewed on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Delhi by news show Firstpost, Lula said Putin would be invited to next year’s event, adding that he himself planned to attend a BRICS bloc of developing nations meeting due in Russia before the Rio meeting.

“I believe that Putin can go easily to Brazil,” Lula said. “What I can say to you is that if I’m president of Brazil, and he comes to Brazil, there’s no way he will be arrested.”

On the occasion, Modi proposed to hold a virtual session of G20 at the end of November this year.

“In the last two days, you have put forward your views, given suggestions and a number of proposals have been put forward. It is our responsibility that the suggestions that have come forth are closely looked upon as to how they can be speeded up,” Modi said.

“It is my proposal that we hold another session of the G20 virtually in November-end. In that session, we can review the issues that have been agreed upon during this summit. Our teams will share the details of it with all of view. I hope all of you will join this (session),” he said.

“With this, I declare the G20 summit as closed,” Modi said. 

Why Modi is keen in calling India Bharat?

Dinner invites referring Bharat rather than India have fueled a political row and public debate over what the country should be called as the country prepares to welcome world leaders for the G20 summit.

Invites issued by the “President of Bharat,” instead of the customary “President of India,” were sent to delegates from the world’s 20 top economies for a dinner to be hosted by Indian President Droupadi Murmu on Saturday.

Both India and Bharat are used officially in the nation of 1.4 billion people, which has more than 20 official languages.

“India, that is Bharat, shall be a Union of States,” the country’s constitution states.

Bharat is also the Hindi word for India and is used interchangeably – both feature on Indian passports for example.

But its use on the invites marks a notable change in the naming convention used by the country on the international stage under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The G20 summit is a first for India as Modi aims to raise New Delhi’s global clout following nearly a decade-long tenure in power in which he has positioned himself as a leader intent on shedding the country’s colonial past – emphasizing the need to liberate ourselves from the slavery mindset.

Britain ruled India for about 200 years until it gained independence in 1947 and those who prefer Bharat say the name the country is best known by globally is a remnant of the colonial era.

The name India has been derived by ancient Western civilizations from the Sanskrit word for the Indus River – Sindhu – and was later adapted by the British Empire.

“The word ‘India’ is an abuse given to us by the British, whereas the word ‘Bharat’ is a symbol of our culture,” Harnath Singh Yadav, a BJP politician, told Indian broadcaster ANI.

Meanwhile, former India cricket star Virender Sehwag urged the sport’s officials to use Bharat on players’ shirts during the Men’s Cricket World Cup, which will be held in India this year.

“We are Bhartiyas, India is a name given by the British and it has been long overdue to get our original name ‘Bharat’ back officially,” he said on social media.

During its time in power, Modi’s government has made steps to steer the country away from what it has called “vestiges of British rule” and to free itself from its “colonial baggage.”

These efforts also include renaming roads and buildings related to both India’s Mughal as well as its colonial past.

For example, in 2022, the government renamed Rajpath, a 3-kilometer (1.8-mile) boulevard formerly known as Kingsway that runs through the heart of New Delhi. The new official name, Kartavya Path, would “remove any trace of colonial mindset,” the government said.

And in 2018, three Indian islands named after British rulers were renamed in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, to erase “these signs of slavery.”

But the use of “Bharat” on the G20 invites has raised eyebrows among opposition leaders.

“While there is no constitutional objection to calling India ‘Bharat’, which is one of the country’s two official names, I hope the government will not be so foolish as to completely dispense with ‘India’, which has incalculable brand value built up over centuries,” Shashi Tharoor, a former diplomat and prominent lawmaker from the main opposition Congress party, said on social media.

Tharoor is also the author of “Inglorious Empire”, a work of non-fiction that excoriates colonial Britain’s rule of India.

India's opposition is uniting to unseat Modi in next year's election. Should he be worried?

In July, the leaders from 26 Indian opposition parties formed an alliance – known as INDIA (or the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) – in a bid to unseat Modi in the next general election.

Coined to evoke a sense of nationalism ahead of the 2024 polls, the INDIA alliance said its goal was upholding the country’s democratic institutions.

Modi’s government has come under scrutiny from rights groups and opposition lawmakers for its increasingly strident brand of Hindu nationalist politics, an ongoing crackdown on dissent, and a tightening grip on the country’s democratic institutions.

Modi has denied a crackdown, saying in a rare June press conference at the White House that when “there are no human rights, then it’s not a democracy,” and “there’s absolutely no space for discrimination” in the country.

Some opposition politicians said the government’s use of Bharat was a response to the formation of the INDIA alliance.

“How can the BJP strike down ‘INDIA’? The country doesn’t belong to a political party; it belongs to [all] Indians,” Aam Aadmi Party lawmaker Raghav Chadha, an alliance member, said on social media. “Our national identity is not the BJP’s personal property that it can modify on whims and fancies.”

But in an interview with ANI, India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar said India “is Bharat.”

“It is there in the constitution. I would invite everybody to read it,” he said.

“When you say Bharat,” it evokes a “sense, a meaning and a connotation,” he said.

“I think that is reflected in our constitution as well

 

Chinese President to skip G-20 meeting

Who shows up where can be very revealing 

According to Bloomberg, for the first time since he took power, Chinese President Xi Jinping will skip a Group of 20 summit. Instead, China is sending Premier Li Qiang to the event hosted by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That’s a clear signal of the relative value he places on the G-20 — set up with US backing in the late 1990s — versus the newly expanding BRICS grouping. 

Xi just made one of his rare 2023 overseas visits last month, to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa, where he successfully pressed for its expansion to include commodity powerhouses including Saudi Arabia, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates.

The new BRICS-11 will account for a major share of key global inputs, according to calculations by Center for Strategic and International Studies researchers Gracelin Baskaran and Ben Cahill: a) 42% of the world’s oil supply, b072% percent of rare earth minerals- with three of the five nations with the largest reserves, c) 75% of the world’s manganese, d) 50% of global graphite and e) 28% of nickel

“It is quite possible that a more coordinated approach” toward export restrictions to the rest of the world could now develop among the BRICS-11, the CSIS analysts wrote.

In the energy field, the group features both major oil and gas producers as well as two of the largest importers, in China and India.

Therefore, there is an incentive for members to set up mechanisms to trade commodities outside the reach of the G-7 financial sector, Baskaran and Cahill wrote.

Ex-Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers — who was in government when the G-20 began — says the enlarged BRICS is a symptom of the US abdicating global leadership in the cause of economic nationalism. Whereas Washington once championed free-trade deals, now its focus is on import restrictions and a buy American bias, he says.

Whenever anybody says they care about producers, not low prices for consumers, they are adopting a negative sum, ‘all-against-all’ vision of international economic policy that invites challenges to the post-WWII vision the US once championed, says Summers, a paid contributor to Bloomberg Television.

The BRICS-11 has its own challenges. Bloomberg’s geo-economics team, led by Jennifer Welch, cautions that the dollar is unlikely to be dethroned by any push by the group to use alternatives.

India-China border tensions, part of the backdrop to Xi’s skipping the G-20, are a bar to BRICS-11 coordination. President Joe Biden, who will be showing up in New Delhi this week, has every incentive to keep Modi aloof from China. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s attendance marks her fourth visit to India in 10 months, highlighting the US focus on that relationship.

Biden and Xi will both be no-shows at the Asean summit of Southeast Asian nations and key trading partners in Jakarta, Indonesia, this week, a missed chance for both.

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will be — a great opportunity for this key US ally to show support for the region in the wake of a provocative Chinese map that sowed acrimony there.

And to share a stage with regional counterparts as China tries to isolate Japan over its discharge of treated wastewater from wrecked Fukushima reactors into the Pacific.

 

Understanding India’s Bangladesh policy

Historically, Sheikh Mujeeb and his daughter Sheikh Hasina have enjoyed the support of the successive Indian governments. In the forthcoming general elections it is difficult to infer if India still supports Hasina.  

Indian External Affairs Minister Dr Subramaniam Jaisankhar’s recent address in New Delhi to celebrate the ninth anniversary of the Bharatiya Janata Party has created conflicting reactions in the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

Dr Jaisankhar iterated in his address in New Delhi what prime minister Narendra Modi signed in the joint declaration namely India’s commitment not to interfere in Bangladesh’s forthcoming general elections.

These developments could also be the game-changer for holding Bangladesh’s next general elections freely and fairly and dealing with the existential threat that a flawed national election would pose for the country.

The statement has disappointed the Awami League, making many of its followers apprehensive. Bangladesh’s foreign minister Dr AKA Momen openly sought New Delhi’s help for a fourth consecutive term for the Awami League on an official visit to New Delhi in 2022. His plea was widely reported in the Indian and Bangladesh media.

Bangladesh’s opposition parties led by the BNP have been in the political wilderness since the Awami League came to power in January 2009. They have been oppressed, incarcerated and subjected to enforced disappearances and other forms of oppression.

The US-west-UN and international rights organizations have accused the Awami League in recent times of the violations that are protected by UN charters with Bangladesh on the cusp of its next general elections.

India had stood steadfastly behind the Awami League till Dr Jaisankhar’s recent statements. It provided seminal support to the Awami League to become and remain the dominant power in Bangladesh. While New Delhi remained silent, the US-led west became vocal against the Awami League up until the Indian prime minister’s Washington visit.

Two instances underline India’s prime role in placing the Awami League in its present position of dominance.

India’s former president Pranab Mukherjee’s soft corner for the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina were open secrets in Bangladesh, thanks to his prolific writings. He wrote that he had assured General Moeen U Ahmed not to worry about his safety and future after his military rule had ended when the latter met him in February 2008 in New Delhi.

Many now believe that the former Indian president won the general over on the side of the Awami League. The Awami League won the December 2008 elections by a landslide. Its victory was expected but not the margin. General Moeen U Ahmed supervised the general elections.

The other instance of India’s interference in Bangladesh’s domestic politics was the infamous visit of the Indian foreign secretary Sujata Singh to Dhaka before Bangladesh’s 2014 general election. She arm-twisted President HM Ershad, many say blackmailed, to participate in the 2014 elections. India’s interference allowed the Awami League to hold the 2014 elections that the BNP-led opposition boycotted.

India’s interference helped the Awami League to also abort the BNP-Jamaat’s movement for the restoration of the caretaker government system that it had forced the BNP to adopt in the constitution as the 13h amendment in 1991–96 with Jamaat and Jatiya Party as allies.

Sheikh Hasina claimed while leading the 1991–96 movement that the caretaker government system was the panacea for changing government peacefully in an emerging democracy. She wanted the caretaker government system to be in the constitution ‘forever.’

India’s interference also legitimized the 15th amendment under which the Awami League held the 2014 elections. The BNP’s effort to establish the amendment as the Awami League’s constitutional mechanism for its BAKSAL vision failed because India led the Awami League’s claim that the BNP and Jamaat were supporters of Islamic terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism that the US-led West accepted wholeheartedly. The result of the 2014 elections was a shame not just to Bangladesh but also to all those who supported it. There was no election to 154 of the 300 seats.

Bangladesh’s present crisis is similar but more dangerous than that it faced leading to the 2014 elections with important changes down the road. One perceptible change has been in India’s role in the 2018 elections. New Delhi stayed away from it despite repeated appeals by the Awami League for help. The Awami League even claimed in making its desperate appeals to New Delhi, leading to the 2018 elections that many hundreds and thousands of its supporters would be killed if it lost power.

The Awami League still won in 2018 elections. It had, meanwhile politicized the civil bureaucracy, the law enforcement agencies and the Election Commissioner in its favour in such a manner that they ensured ballot boxes managed votes to be stuffed in its favour the midnight before the election.

The 2018 elections earned the ‘midnight elections’ nickname. The BNP flagged the futility of participating in a general election under the 15th amendment but was forced to take part in it because it would have, otherwise, lost its registration for abstaining from two consecutive general elections. It was no wonder, therefore, that the Awami League won 293 of the 300 seats in the 2018 elections.

Dramatic changes have occurred in the international order since Bangladesh’s 2018 election. Islamic terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism that had made the US-west-UN allow the Awami League to do anything to remain in power leading to the 2014 and the 2018 elections are now out of the radar.

These powers have now come together for democracy, human rights and a free and fair general election in Bangladesh at a time when it is clear that the country cannot withstand another election similar to the 2014 and 2018 elections. It is now also clear that there cannot be any election in Bangladesh under the 15th Amendment without pushing the country towards an existential crisis.

India which was an ally of the US-West in Bangladesh’s controversial 2014 and 2018 elections, nevertheless, had remained silent about the dramatic changes. It kept Bangladesh across its political divide, waiting, aware that its role would be very crucial.

Most Bangladeshis were not inclined to believe that the US-west-UN would not be able to force a peaceful change of government in Bangladesh without India. A great many believed that New Delhi and Washington would, in the end, back a fourth term for the Awami League.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Washington answered Bangladesh’s waiting, almost. Narendra Modi did not speak for the Awami League as its supporters expected. He agreed instead through paragraph 36 of the 58-paragraph joint declaration of the summit to support ‘freedom, democracy, human rights, inclusion, pluralism, and equal opportunities for all citizens.’

Thus, by interpretation, he dittoed the recent initiatives of the United States in Bangladesh for democracy and human rights, particularly for holding Bangladesh’s next general election in a manner where every voter would be able to vote freely, fairly and without fear.

 

India: Inequality of growth story

Despite being its last full budget before the general elections in 2024, Narendra Modi's government is expected to shun populism in favor of fiscal discipline. However, the uneven nature of India's post-pandemic recovery calls for heightened support to the most vulnerable sections of society.

With a third of the world hovering on the brink of a recession after two pandemic years, India's economy remains a comparatively bright spot in 2023.

GDP targets for the year have been moderated slightly, but India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world for a second year. Growth is likely to be in the range of 65 to 6.5%, which is impressive by any measure.

Additionally, inflation is coming off, energy prices have cooled off, the country continues to receive strong investment flows and consumer spending is inching up.

India is also expectedly benefiting from the 'China-plus-one' strategy of global manufacturing, with the likes of Apple looking to scale up capacity in the country as it diversifies supply chains away from China.

At the recently-concluded World Economic Forum in Davos, the one-line message from Gita Gopinath, deputy managing director at IMF (International Monetary Fund), to politicians was to use "fiscal policy to provide support to the most vulnerable in society".

Despite impressive headline GDP forecasts, unemployment in India remains high - at over 10% in cities, according to December 2022 data from the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy. And inequality has worsened.

Recent findings by Oxfam, the British charity, that India's top 1% owned 40% of its wealth have been subject to a great deal of scrutiny, with many pointing to flaws in its calculation methodology.

But a raft of other data sets - such as shrinking demand for affordable homes, greater demand for luxury cars vis-vis two wheelers, or for premium consumer goods over cheaper alternatives — points to a K-shaped recovery post pandemic, where the rich have become wealthier, while the poor are worse off.

The BBC traveled across numerous villages in West Bengal's Purulia district where people are caught in a political crossfire between the federal and state government. Approximately US$330 million in wages under the government's rural jobs guarantee program, a crucial social buffer, have been delayed for more than a year.

Sundara and Aditya Sardar, a couple who spent four months digging a pond outside their village under the jobs scheme — Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), told the BBC they'd run up debts to pay for food because of the wage delays and taken their son out of school.

"The central government has blocked off payments to 10 million workers in West Bengal for over a year. In times of economic distress and high unemployment, this is inhumane and, as the Supreme Court has said in a MGNREGS case ruling on delayed payments, it is forced labor," said Nikhil Dey, an activist.

These delays, while most acute in West Bengal, aren't limited to the state alone. In all, the government owes over US$500 millio in unpaid dues to workers under the scheme across the country.

Economist Jean Dreze blames this situation on the government's bid to contain expenditure across social security schemes and allow the vicious cycle of annual under-allocation and delays in wages to continue, particularly for MGNREGS.

"There was a time when the expenditure on the jobs program had risen to 1% of GDP. It is now less than half a percent. I would be quite happy if it came back to 1% in this budget, with much bigger efforts to curb corruption in the scheme," said Dreze.

Outlays to the rural jobs scheme shrunk last year and lower spendings were budgeted for food and fertilizer subsidies, although supplementary allocations were made to extend the Covid-era emergency support schemes and cushion the impact of global geopolitical shocks.

Given the Modi government's precarious fiscal position, the finance minister has a tough balancing act to do; between prioritizing social protection to the poor and growth-supportive capital expenditure on one hand and reducing the budget deficit on the other.

India's budgeted fiscal deficit — the gap between what the government earns and spends — is at 6.4%, as opposed to an average of 4% to 4.5% over the last decade.

And with the government's gross indebtedness doubling over the last four years, subsidies on food and fertilizers could be cut by a quarter, a Reuters poll of economists found. The government has already discontinued a Covid-era free food program.

A widening current account deficit - the difference between what the government earns from exports and spends on imports - poses another significant challenge.

"India's economy is affected by external demand, sentiment of global investors, and regional trade dynamics. These are not flashing bright green right now," DBS Group Research chief economist Taimur Baig and data analyst Daisy Sharma said in a recent report.

Demand for Indian exports is likely to falter as the West enters a recession. Meanwhile, tighter financial conditions domestically are expected to keep domestic demand muted. India's central bank is broadly expected to hike rates further in February before pausing for the rest of the year.

Modi's government faces formidable economic challenges this year despite India's outperformance globally. And it will need to undertake continued structural reforms beyond budget announcements to make increasingly scarce money work better.

Modi turning Indian nonalignment policy into a business model

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is the first career diplomat to serve as India's external affairs minister. Unlike many of his predecessors, he has also had experience in the private sector, serving as president of global corporate affairs for the Tata Group for about a year just before taking up his current role.

His unique background, coupled with the "Make in India" and "Atmanirbhar Bharat" driven by the administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to promote foreign investment and self-reliance, respectively, are reshaping Indian foreign policy.

Indian neutral position on Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the subject of considerable debate and discussions in media and policy circles. Many experts have attributed India's stance to its Cold War-era policy of nonalignment and its bonhomie with Russia, which dates back to those days.

The Indian government has justified its position as serving the country's national interests, rather than being a consequence of ideology. Its real geo-economic considerations go beyond realpolitik.

Unlike preceding administrations, the Modi government is not seeking to have one foot with the global South and one with the West in deference to the principle of nonalignment, nor is it motivated by what its developed-country partners call shared values.

Rather, behind the veneer of India's balancing act are trade and economic interests, particularly in terms of energy, defense, pharmaceuticals and high technology.

India is now poised to be the fastest-growing major economy this year, with the International Monetary Fund last week forecasting a gross-domestic product rise of 6.8%. This would be more than double the pace of China or the world as a whole at a time when developed countries look poised to enter recession.

Many economists have attributed India's strong growth to rising domestic consumption and its relative success at controlling inflation. But notably, the Indian finance ministry credits purchases of discounted Russian oil as a key factor in the country's strong macroeconomic performance.

Beyond cheap oil, India is also taking advantage of the growing geopolitical fractures to sell more arms abroad, increase space cooperation and develop markets for its pharmaceuticals.

Latin America has been a particular new area of focus, with the government setting up new consulates in Paraguay and the Dominican Republic and a state-owned fuel retailer looking to Brazil's Petrobras for supplies.

Visiting Argentina last month, Jaishankar pointedly used that country's name for the Falkland Islands, Islas Malvinas. This was not just a show of solidarity with a fellow member of the global South but part of a sales pitch for the Tejas fighter jet made by state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics.

Buenos Aires aims by year-end to finalize a decision between competing models, including offers for the US F-16, Russia's MiG-35, and the JF-17 made jointly by China and Pakistan.

The Tejas is billed as an affordable alternative to the F-16 and other Western fighters, and even to the JF-17. Priced at US$42 million a plane with an operating cost of around US$4,000 an hour, the Tejas is the cheapest lightweight combat aircraft available.

Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh promoted the Tejas on a visit to Egypt last month and other ministers have been traveling to the country as well. Hindustan Aeronautics is preparing to open its first overseas marketing office in Malaysia and considering adding others.

The Philippines, meanwhile, earlier this year finalized a US$375 million deal to buy supersonic BrahMos missiles from the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), another Indian state-owned arms producer. Vietnam is also a target market for Indian defense companies.

Indian arms makers have other advantages besides price over their established American rivals in pitching to countries in the global South. US arms makers are handcuffed by Washington's alliance policies, which fracture the world into camps. Thus the DRDO is working on a deal to sell Pinaka Mark-II guided missile systems to Armenia, a longtime Russian ally.

India's participation in the new I2U2 grouping with Israel, the US and the United Arab Emirates also shows how economic interests are taking precedence over past ideological priorities, in this case, support for the Palestinian cause.

That effort now yields little economic benefit for New Delhi while the I2U2 in July set plans for a US$2 billion series of food-sector industrial parks in India and a US$330 million renewable energy project in Modi's home state of Gujarat.

Modi's vision of "Make in India, make for the world" still faces many hurdles, including the country's aversion to free trade deals and other protectionist policies, but turning top government officials into business development managers charged with cultivating foreign markets is one way to advance the effort.

Indian concept of a multipolar world can be more than geopolitical balancing between global powers but also a geoeconomic endeavor carefully crafted to take advantage of different opportunities in each country.

 

 

Kashmir: Modi trying to convert demographic majority into political minority

Two years ago, on 5th August 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi removed the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir as a state and redesignated it as two union territories, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh, which are governed directly from Delhi. 

He also scrapped Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which had allowed J&K to make its own laws, and cancelled Article 35A, which gave its legislature the power to determine who was a permanent resident of the state.

The effective annexation of J&K was overwhelmingly rejected by Kashmiri Muslims. Pakistan virulently opposed it, arguing that because J&K was considered by the United Nations Security Council to be disputed territory; its annexation violated international law.

Modi claimed that this unilateral move would bring peace and development to J&K. Not surprisingly, this action by his Hindu nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has only brought more misery and more violence. And, sadly, the future doesn’t look promising.

Within a year, the impact on the economy of J&K was disastrous. Another year later, and notwithstanding the Modi government’s assertions that the political changes had brought socioeconomic development to the region, economic activity has come to a standstill. A double lockdown, political and Covid-driven, has hit the tourism industry very hard. Starved of international tourists, those running the famous house boats on Dal Lake in Srinagar are desperately struggling to survive.

Many of the political leaders arrested two years ago are still under house arrest or in jail. The BJP has made rampant use of a particularly harsh piece of legislation, the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act—which permits detention without charge for up to six months—to crack down on all forms of dissent. Torture and mistreatment of detainees, including teenagers, is common practice. Less than 1% of arrests under the act have resulted in a conviction in the past 10 years. Modi has used the law to silence civil-society organizations, in particular, the Association of Parents of Disappeared Persons and the Jammu Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society—the only two groups documenting human rights abuses in J&K.

India’s harsh and uncompromising approach to J&K has come to the attention of the UN. In March 2021, five UN special rapporteurs wrote a letter to the Modi government expressing their concerns over arbitrary detentions, extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances in J&K. That letter and five previous communications by other UN rapporteurs since 5 August 2019 have been ignored.

In June 2021, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, concerned by grave human rights violations in J&K, asked the Indian government to end the use of shotgun pellets against children. The dire situation in J&K has also come to the attention of the EU. A number of members of the European Parliament have written to the president and vice president of the European Commission expressing concern about the human rights violations in J&K.

Kashmiri political leaders­—most of whom have lost all credibility with Kashmiris—have demanded that J&K’s statehood be restored. Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai has said in the Indian parliament that statehood would be ‘granted at an appropriate time after normalcy is restored’. The Indian government’s response begs more questions about Kashmir’s future.

In the meantime, Delhi has extended until March 2022 the role of the Delimitation Commission established to redraw the electoral constituencies of J&K. Most Kashmiris fear that the commission’s real task is to redraw the electoral map to make it easier for the BJP to win the next election, whenever that will be.

But more worrisome to Kashmiris is that since the legislative changes in August 2019, well over three million domicile certificates have been granted to non-Kashmiris, most of them non-Muslims. Moreover, there’s a fear that Delhi will apply to Kashmir the 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act, which requires Muslims to prove their citizenship. Many would not be able to do so because they have no official papers to confirm their legal status.

The Modi government has been keen to assist the return to Kashmir of thousands of Kashmiri Pandits (Hindus) who left because of the security situation in the 1990s. As former J&K finance minister Haseeb Drabu noted, Kashmiris are worried that through the use of legislative and administrative actions the Modi government is trying ‘to convert a demographic majority into a political minority’.

Despite the misery Kashmiris endure daily, the international community has no appetite to confront Modi on this. And he knows it.

There are critical strategic issues to deal with, notably the growing tension between the West and China and the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, in which India could play an important role. India’s geostrategic importance is further strengthened by its membership, along with the US, Japan and Australia, of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Given that context, Kashmir simply doesn’t make it onto the agenda.

On his recent visit to India, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not allow Kashmir and other human rights issues, such as the poor treatment of Muslims in India, to complicate the bilateral meeting. When asked to comment on the wobbliness of India’s democracy, Blinken stated, ‘We view Indian democracy as a force for good in defense of a free and open Indo-Pacific. We also recognize that every democracy, starting with our own, is a work in progress.’ This would have been sweet music to his host, India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar.

Sadly, once again, politics takes precedence over human rights issues. There’s no expectation that anything will change soon for Kashmiris because there’s absolutely no international pressure on Modi to relent.

What could be likely impact of Gaza crisis on South Asia?

While some analysts may say South Asia is not a party to the Gaza conflict, the region is still vulnerable to its potentially destabilizing effects. It poses security risks within the region, including violent protests and terrorist attacks.

It is worth exploring what the crisis means for South Asia, which does not have common border with the Middle East. India and Nepal have long-standing links to Israel and Bhutan normalized ties in December 2020. As against this Pakistan fully support the Palestinian cause.

India has strengthened its ties with Israel significantly. Relations between the two countries have grown stronger under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He became the first sitting Indian prime minister to visit Israel. India has supported the Palestinian cause in the past. In 2018, Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit the Palestinian territories too.

India’s ambassador to the United Nations issued a bit confusing statement on the conflict. He condemned Palestinian violence and described Israel’s use of force as retaliatory, but in the same breath affirmed India’s strong support for the Palestinian cause and two-state solution.

As against this, Pakistan has put to rest all lingering speculation that it could be one of the next countries normalizing ties with Israel. Pakistan made it clear that it will only recognize Israel when a Palestinian state is established.

Some analysts say the current conflict also poses security risks for South Asia. It could spark pro-Palestinian protests that could lead to violence. They also fear that some non-state actors or miscreants hiding in Afghanistan may enter Kashmir and try to put the valley inferno.

Can sustainable peace be established between India and Pakistan?

It appears that efforts are being made to reduce hostility between Pakistan and India, the two atomic powers of South Asia. However, most of the actions are taking place behind the scene, though scanty details are being shared with public.

The Pakistan Day message received by Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan from his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi has made headlines, but it hardly reflects any tangible goodwill gesture.

After years of hostility cordiality will be difficult to achieve. Yet the first, careful steps have been taken, and if things proceed without any glitch tangible progress in the peace process can be achieved.

The first sign that things were changing for the better came in the shape of the LoC ceasefire announced last month by the two countries. It was followed up by statements from Khan and the army chief calling for better relations with India.

Pakistani experts were also in India earlier this week after a long gap to discuss the sharing of Indus waters. Relations had of course hit rock bottom after India unilaterally annulled held Kashmir’s special status in its constitution in 2019.

One can hear the eco that a Gulf state that enjoys good relations with both sides is playing the role of peacemaker. Biden administration is also sending certain signals to Islamabad and New Delhi. This suggests that the two atomic powers are being pressurized to ease the situation.

It has been witnessed several times in the past; both countries were tantalizingly close to making peace, only for the process to be abandoned due to spoilers, this time things may not be different.

It is believed that with seriousness of purpose, everything standing in the way of peace — including Kashmir — can be resolved. The history spread over more than 70 decades, proves this is only a wishful thinking.

My lines could be best understood when one reads what Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa has said. He said pointblank that lasting peace in the sub-continent will remain elusive until the resolution of the Kashmir issue. He also stressed that it was time for India and Pakistan to "bury the past and move forward".

Let me say that both the countries have remained hostage to the disputes and issues. The Kashmir issue is obviously at the heart of this. It is important to understand that without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, process of rapprochement will remain susceptible to derailment.

Anti Modi demonstrations erupt in Bangladesh

Two-day tour of Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi to Bangladesh starts on Friday. Earlier, leaders from Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives have attended the festivities, which started on 17th March.

Modi’s visit is part of 10-day celebrations of the Golden Jubilee of Bangladesh independence. This also marks Birth Centenary of the nation's founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, father of current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

During his visit, Modi is scheduled to visit two temples in southern rural districts, including the birthplace of a top Hindu reformer who has large number of followers in the Indian West Bengal and Bangladesh.

To display their displeasure some factions staged anti-Modi demonstration in Dhaka. The protesters accused Modi of stoking religious tensions and inciting anti-Muslim violence in the Indian state of Gujarat in 2002, which left about 1,000 people dead. Modi was Gujarat's chief minister at the time of the deadly religious riots.

On Thursday, student organizations under the banner of ‘Progressive Student Alliance’ were demonstrating against Modi’s visit.They were allegedly attacked by Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) activists at Dhaka University campus.

 “Some 40 protesters were injured, including 18 hospitalized with injuries from police beatings and rubber bullets,” Bin Yamin Molla, a senior official of the Student Rights Council, which organized the protest, told AFP.

Witnesses said several hundreds of BCL men with local weapons were seen at the Teachers Students Centre (TSC).

Earlier in the day, Jubo Odhikar Parishad activists clashed with police in the city’s Motijheel area while protesting against the Indian prime minister’s visit.

The Parishad, youth front of former vice president of Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) Nurul Haque Nur’s organization, blocked the roads in the Motijheel area in the afternoon.

The clashes started when the law enforcing agencies tried to stop the demonstrators.

Quad holds first virtual summit

Member countries of the Quadrilateral Framework (Quad) held a virtual summit on Friday. Addressing the meeting, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US President Joe Biden, Japanese Premier Yoshihide Suga and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison highlighted cooperation among the member countries to beat the global COVID-19 pandemic, with joint partnership on vaccines, and emphasized the need for an open and free Indo-Pacific region. 

“We are united by our democratic values and our commitment to a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. Our agenda, covering areas like vaccines, climate change, and emerging technologies make the Quad a force for global good. We will work together, closer than ever before on advancing our shared values and promoting a secure, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” said Modi, who described the Quadrilateral Framework as an “important pillar of stability in the region.”

The member nations agreed to ensure equitable access to vaccines to counter the pandemic. A joint statement, titled ‘The Spirit of the Quad’ said, “We will join forces to expand safe, affordable, and effective vaccine production and equitable access to speed economic recovery and benefit global health.”

Addressing the meeting, President Biden emphasized that the Indo-Pacific region should be governed in accordance to human rights.

 “And we're renewing our commitment to ensure that our region is governed by international law, committed to upholding universal values and free from coercion. We’ve got a big agenda ahead of us,” said Biden.

Addressing the gathering, Morrison laid out the agenda of the Quad in the near future and said, “We join together as leaders of nations to welcome, what I think will be a new dawn in the Indo-Pacific through our gathering.”

Prime Minister Suga acknowledged the new dynamism that Quad has received because of the meeting of the top leaders of the member countries.

 “With the four countries working together, I wish to firmly advance our cooperation to realise, a free and open Indo Pacific, and to make a tangible contribution to the peace, stability, and prosperity of the region, including overcoming COVID-19,” he said.

The ‘Quad’, has been taken to the apex level, said Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla during a special briefing on the leaders’ summit.

“We are all committed to free and open, inclusive, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific. Today’s summit adopted a positive vision to address contemporary issues with vaccine cooperation. Leaders agreed to strengthen, peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Shringla, who described the focus on the vaccines as the “most pressing”.

He informed that Japan, US and Australia will finance the vaccine initiative that India has welcomed.

“We look forward to participating in the initiative whole-heartedly. During the discussion there was wholesome appreciation of the Vaccine Maitri initiative,” said Shringla.

The vaccine expert working group, a critical and emerging technology working group, and a climate working group for technology, capacity building and climate finance have been cleared during the summit. The Foreign Secretary also said the Quad leaders have agreed to meet in person during the coming months.

“The Quad does not stand against anything, it stands for something,” said Shringla, explaining that Quad is a value-based grouping that is trying to deal with the need for vaccines, climate change and other such issues. He informed that the issue of military takeover in Myanmar came up during the discussion among the leaders.