Bangladesh Election: Awami League and others

According to reports, besides finalizing candidates for its own party and alliance partners, the ruling Awami League (AL) is considering providing some seats to parties willing to join the next election amid boycotts by major opposition parties.

The ruling party is now passing a busy time to select its own contestants while working with seat-sharing mechanisms to create opposition as the last date of filing nominations is approaching for the January 07, 2024 election.

Candidates for the election can submit nomination papers until November 30, 2023. The AL is likely to announce candidates for 300 constituencies on Sunday.

The AL-led alliance partners are now adamant about joining the election as a coalition and are now lobbying for more seats than the 11th parliamentary polls amid uncertainty over the participation of the main opposition BNP.

During the past general election held in 2018, the AL candidates contested for 261 seats and refrained from participating for 26 seats in favour of the Jatiya Party, five seats in favour of the Workers Party of Bangladesh, three each in favour of Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Jasod and Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh, and one each in favour of the Bangladesh Tarikat Federation and Jatiya Party.

“We are negotiating with AL for more nominations for our party in the forthcoming election. We are pressing for more seats than in the previous elections,” Workers Party president Rashed Khan Menon told New Age.

He said that there was time until the withdrawal of nomination papers to settle the issue.

AL joint general secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim said that they would declare the party candidates first and then think about nominating candidates from partners.

Asked about the AL’s negotiation with other lesser-known political parties, he said that it was part of the party’s policy.

“We believe that any registered political party can join an election if they want. Anyone can create alliances with anyone having similar ideologies,” he said.

He said that there might be many political strategies, and nothing could be guaranteed.

In addition to regular partners, some small parties, including the newly formed Trinamool BNP, are also lobbying the Awami League for seats in exchange for promising to join the polls.

Leaders of Trinamool BNP and some Islamic parties, including Islami Oikya Jote, Bangladesh Islami Font, Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan, Bangladesh Muslim League, Islamic Font Bangladesh, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Bangladesh Islami Oikya Jote, and Jamiat-e-Ulama-e-Islam Bangladesh, met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in recent days to discuss their respective election strategies.

Neither the prime minister’s office nor AL or the parties made any formal statements about the outcome of those meetings.

The allegation has it that the Trinamool BNP and Bangladesh Nationalist Movement, labelled as King’s Party by many, are negotiating with AL to become the opposition in the parliament.

The newly-formed alliance Jukta Front, led by the Kalyan Party, demanded a few seats, although AL insiders said they could end up with one seat for Kalyan chairman Syed Muhammad Ibrahim, a retired major general.

BNM, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Bangladesh Muslim League, and Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan may also get one seat, party insiders said.

Jasod, a partner of the Awami League, finalized 181 candidates, said the party general secretary, Shirin Akhter.

“We want to join the polls with the alliance. The alliance is not only for joining polls but also a place of ideology”, she added.

Shirin said that many parties were now willing to join their alliance, creating difficulties.

At a briefing on Friday, AL general secretary Obaidul Quader said that they were not thinking so seriously about the political alliance in terms of sharing seats.

“The party will not give nominations to anyone who cannot win an election and does not have popularity among the people”, he added.

AL presidium member Abdur Rahman told New Age that the party’s seat-sharing plan has no connection with BNP’s joining or boycotting elections.

‘Our leader, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, will give nominations to eligible candidates from the alliance. The party will give candidates for 300 seats, and then our leader will decide about other alliances,’ he said.

According to AL insiders, there is a possibility that its alliance partners may participate in the polls independently with their own party electoral symbols.

In that case, the AL may not give nominations to any of its aspirants in some constituencies to create a pathway for them to win.

The ruling AL has decided to participate in the 12th Jatiya Sangsad election in alliance in some constituencies and alone in other consultancies, AL office secretary Biplob Barua told reporters on October 18, 2023.

The AL-led alliance was formed in 2005 and came to power for three consecutive terms in 2009, 2014, and 2018.

The Workers Party, Jasod, Ganatantri Party, and Jatiya Party-JP are among the most active parties in the alliance.

Ganatantri Party president Shahadat Hossain hoped that prime minister Sheikh Hasina would make it suitable for all.

“The prime minister will meet with the alliance soon. We can tell it only after the meeting”, he added.

AL’s preparation for the forthcoming election is underway at a time when the leaders and activists of the main opposition BNP and its allies keep facing arrest, raids, prosecution, and conviction.

 

Climate change and its impact on Arabian Sea

In the summer of 2022, flash flooding due to heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and southeast Iran killed over 1,000 people. In this part of the world, the extreme shifts in weather between monsoon and dry season dictate subsistence cycles and financial livelihood, with accompanying risks to life and property. Shifting global precipitation patterns due to climate change, however, are altering the timing and magnitude of these events.

In the Middle East and North Africa region, the Arabian Sea plays a major part in both South Asian and African monsoons, providing a source of moisture. Temperature and vapor pressure in the northern Arabian Sea have been steadily increasing since the 1980s and regional sea surface temperatures have seen a steady rise since 2003. Combined, these phenomena are a recipe for disaster.

The warmer average air mass above the sea has an increased capacity to hold water and will take longer to saturate as a result. This lengthens the average time between precipitation events, but is also more likely to produce catastrophically high precipitation when it does.

What can be done to adapt to this new reality? Can infrastructure be adapted, optimized, or possibly even re-imagined to take advantage of such events?

Infrastructure for the capture, transport, and treatment of surface water will need to adapt to the new realities of climate change, in MENA perhaps quicker than anywhere else. Correlation between historically extreme events and the “new normal” could serve to guide the retrofitting of pre-existing infrastructure as well as updated requirements for the construction of new infrastructure. This should be based on sound statistics and up-to-date flood frequency analysis.

If it is determined, for example, that floods that previously qualified as a “500-year event” are now a “100-year event,” then catchment areas, spillway designs, and dam heights should be adjusted to reflect this new reality.

Beyond exposed impoundments and flood control structures, innovative solutions for storage, conveyance, and treatment of water harvested from these extreme events should be considered if the intended end use is municipal or industrial.

Since large swaths of the MENA countries within the Arabian Sea zone are sparsely populated, adaptations that emphasize efficiency and flexibility in capture or conveyance across vast, often arid regions would be essential.

These might include groundwater infiltration basins located in regions statistically determined to be visited by cyclones with increased frequency, covered tanks (to reduce evaporative losses), and pipelines from these areas to strategic transfer points in regional infrastructure. Incorporating passive treatment of captured water, solar, or even small-scale hydroelectric generation into these designs can augment water and power security.

Source type is also important. Smaller countries or those with more homogenous landscapes (such as Bahrain or Qatar) only need to focus on adaptations to the particular type of extreme event they most often experience. Infrastructure in Arabian Sea zone countries with diverse geography such as Oman, however, may be adapted to capitalize on episodic heavy rainfall or, more rarely, heavy snowfall events and the differences in timing of arrival of water from each.

Monsoon rains are highly localized, and some of the countries that border the Arabian Sea, like Oman, are uniquely positioned to take advantage not just of “Khareef season” but of its reversal as well.

Between the months of June and September, the Salalah region in southern Oman will experience rain from the prevailing south west relies that set up along the southern coast as warm, moist air from the Arabian Sea sweeps toward the Indian Subcontinent.

Toward the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer, this pattern reverses as East Africa heats up, driving winds from the Gulf of Oman to drop rain and, sometimes, snow on the Hajar Mountains.

By contrast, cyclones may affect large areas, and are an increasingly common occurrence in the Arabian Sea, bringing significant rainfall, storm surge, and high winds. With the aid of advanced sitting tools (a combination of geographical information system, artificial intelligence, or updated global circulation models, for example) key regions of the landscape could be engineered or enhanced to take advantage of such events by acting as large-scale catchment facilities, capturing precious runoff, wave energy, or controlling sediment transport. Maximizing the local use of such resources — for small-scale power, landscape irrigation, or environmental flows — would remove the need for both conveyance and treatment.

If it sounds as though the line between landscape and infrastructure has blurred, perhaps it should. If buildings and roadways are engineered to withstand the impacts of “extreme” climatic events, why not re-imagine the environment to dovetail with adapted power and water supply infrastructure and take advantage of the potential windfall? Hurricane Harvey dumped more than 20x1012 gallons of water on the US Gulf Coast in the summer of 2017. Had the storm stalled over the US Southwest, 17 years of drought would have been undone and surface system reservoirs would have been filled within the space of one week.

The blueprint for transforming events such as these from liability into potential windfall already exists, albeit on a smaller scale. Many city and regional-level utilities outside MENA incentivize simultaneous compliance with safety and environmental standards prior to approving new infrastructure. Scaling up such an approach would require a similar leap up in planning and regulatory perspective. Urban planning would become regional planning, with the coordination between civil, geotechnical, and environmental engineering taken to new levels.

Funding options for such projects would need to evolve alongside the rising threats posed by climate change. Options for build-operate-own scenarios under public-private partnerships could be negotiated through non-governmental, UN, or World Bank-affiliated organizations, such as the Green Climate Fund or the Global Adaptation Fund, if government funding for affected countries in the MENA region were limited. Rates for water could be structured according to the ephemeral nature of the resource.

The degree of difficulty with which the resource is captured and conveyed could be incorporated, with the associated costs wrapped into current operations and management. The money saved by not having to pump and treat an equivalent volume of this “free water” could be used to further stretch the resource by being funneled back into reuse-recycling programs, for example.

The details of such programs are, at this stage, less important than a broader array of strategies for taking advantage of potential opportunities to mitigate the damage caused by climate change.

Rather than planning for climate conditions just based on the status quo of risk management, consider that, if the scale and robustness of infrastructure are being tested at a level never before experienced in modern times due to the amplification of climate change impacts, perhaps it is time for a similar quantum leap of thought on how we approach these challenges by viewing these climate risks as opportunities.

The MENA countries within the climate influence of the Arabian Sea will certainly need to buffer against the adverse impacts of extreme weather but may also look toward finding innovative benefits from experiencing this level of climate vulnerability.

Courtesy: Middle East Institute

US steps to destabilize Hasina government not positive for South Asia

This morning I was not surprised to read an Indian claim that the US indulgence in destabilizing Hasina’s Government in Bangladesh could destabilize South Asia. People around the world can recall the US was also accused of toppling Imran Khan Government in Pakistan.

India has conveyed to the United States that the way various steps are being taken by the US to destabilize the Hasina Government was not positive for the overall security of India as a neighboring country and South Asia as a whole, reports Anandabazar Patrika.

India is not happy with the current role of the United States centering the upcoming elections in Bangladesh and this message has also been conveyed to Washington, said the newspaper published from Kolkata.

In next three weeks, US president Joe Biden and Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina will share the same stage in New Delhi as they will attend G20 Leaders Summit.

Before that, this message from India is considered to be significant enough, according to Anandabazar.

South Block (the seat of India’s external affairs ministry) thinks that if Jamaat-e-Islami is given ‘political concession’ Dhaka will be taken over by fundamentalism in the near future, reads the report that also mentioned that the liberal environment that exists will no longer exist.

According to diplomatic sources, New Delhi communicated this to the Biden administration at multiple levels of meetings.

According to the diplomatic camp, the security system of the entire region has turned upside down after the decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan. India’s Northeast Frontier region is in a dangerous situation said the report.

The Taliban is now at the peak of power in Afghanistan.

It is believed that the US made a closed-door deal with Afghanistan without considering its women, children and minorities, and is now facing the consequences.

The Ministry of External Affairs feels that America’s policy towards Kabul as well as India’s other neighbours is increasing New Delhi’s discomfort with questions of national interest, said the report.

Bangladesh has the longest land border with India. As a result, any adverse situation in that country affects India as well.

Quoting the sources, the report mentioned that New Delhi has told the Biden administration that if the Jamaat is patronized to grow, India’s cross-border terrorism can increase and China’s influence in Bangladesh will increase a lot, which is not desired by Washington.

It is believed that America always tries to show Jamaat as an Islamic political organization.

America compared Jamaat with the Muslim Brotherhood. But in reality, the report said, New Delhi is in no doubt that the Jamaat is in the hands of radical fundamentalist organizations and Pakistan.

The Biden administration has announced a separate visa policy for Bangladesh only.

According to sources, New Delhi does not think it is justified at all.

As a result of this new visa policy, those who try to disrupt the upcoming elections in Bangladesh will not be allowed to enter America.

The diplomatic camp feels that the American administration directly interfered with the internal politics of Bangladesh by applying its own country’s laws and adopting a separate visa policy for that country, reads the report.

Recently, a five-member delegation of Bangladesh Awami League visited New Delhi and held meetings with the top leadership of BJP and the ministers of the central government.

There, they also gave a message that the BNP-Jamaat alliance is dangerous in terms of maintaining regional stability.

Leader of the delegation Agriculture Minister Abdur Razzaque held a positive meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister  S Jaishankar.

Right after that meeting, he said, “We told India that regional stability is important for both countries. The government led by prime minister Sheikh Hasina is committed to not allowing the soil of Bangladesh to be used for anti-India activities.”

 

Record heatwave scorching much of Asia

A record-smashing heatwave has been scorching South and South-east Asia, with temperatures so searing in places like India’s West Bengal that people there are frying eggs under the heat of the noonday sun, reports The Straits Time.

Meteorologists have been tracking temperatures of as high as 45 deg C in India, Thailand and Myanmar, and 42 to 43 deg C in Bangladesh, Laos, Vietnam, Nepal and China. These are temperatures that most of these countries have not experienced in decades.

Populations across the continent are cranking up their air-conditioners and electric fans, seeking shelter in shopping malls and in their offices, or praying for rain.

People are dying of heatstroke as they gather in thick, large crowds under the sun, and students are landing in hospitals as their schools bake in the heat.

Power grids are stretched beyond their capacities, and farmers are looking at failed harvests.

The continent is experiencing the worst April heatwave in its history, said climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks extreme weather on his Twitter account.

“It will just get worse,” he warned.

Climatologists and scientists say this is just the start of a long dry spell that will likely be exacerbated by the El Nino weather phenomenon forecast to hit later in 2023. Asia will have to brace itself for even warmer days ahead, they warn.

At least 13 people died from heatstroke in India’s western Maharashtra state after attending a state award ceremony on Sunday that drew over a million people.

In Ahmedabad, the most populous city in Gujarat state, the air had been so hot and humid that asphalt on a freshly laid road did not harden, but instead melted.

At least two other states in India – Tripura in the north-east and West Bengal in the east – have ordered schools to shut this week as the temperature rose above 40 deg C.

In the Philippines, where the temperature hit 37 deg C, close to 150 secondary schoolchildren in a province south of capital Manila suffered heatstroke after a power outage hit their school. Seven of them fainted; two had to be taken to a hospital. The school has classrooms crammed with some 60 students each, and only electric fans to cool them.

The surge in power demand is already straining power grid capacities in poorer nations like Bangladesh, which is being forced to cut power to millions of people.

India is also warning of blackouts as higher use of air-conditioners and irrigation pumps depletes fuel used by its power plants.

But scientists are not laughing. It is warmer now because of climate change, they say.

Dr Fahad Saeed, regional lead for climate policy at Climate Analytics said, “This year’s record heat in Thailand, China and South Asia is a clear climate trend and will cause public health challenges for years to come.”

India’s scorching temperatures are making its population of over 1.4 billion – set to become the world’s largest – more vulnerable to illness and hunger, he said.

China has already seen major disruptions to industrial production in recent years because of extreme weather. It was gripped by a severe drought in 2022 that impacted the Yangtze River – a key conduit used to irrigate farms and power the massive Three Gorges Dam power station.

 

Indus Water Treaty crucial for peace between Pakistan and India

The Indus Water Treaty is crucial to the peace and stability of the South Asian region. The treaty provides a framework for the sharing of water resources between India and Pakistan, which are two of the most populous and powerful countries in the region. The treaty has been in place since 1960, and despite some disputes and issues, it has managed to prevent any major conflicts between the two countries over water resources.

Under the treaty, both India and Pakistan have certain rights and obligations. India has the right to use the waters of the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi) for its use, while Pakistan has the right to use the waters of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) for its use. Both countries are obligated to inform each other about any new projects being planned or constructed on the shared rivers.

However, the fast-tracking of hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir by India has raised concerns about the implementation of the treaty. Pakistan has accused India of violating the treaty by not providing timely and adequate information about the projects being constructed on the shared rivers. Pakistan believes that the fast-tracking of these projects will reduce the water flow downstream and have an adverse impact on its agriculture and economy.

The issue of water resources is critical for both India and Pakistan. The Indus River is the lifeline of Pakistan’s agriculture and economy, and any reduction in the flow of water downstream can have a significant impact on the country’s food security and economic growth. India, on the other hand, is also heavily dependent on water resources for its economic development, and the fast-tracking of hydropower projects is seen as an important step towards achieving its energy goals.

However, it is important to note that the successful collaboration on the Indus Water Treaty is critical to maintaining peace and stability in the South Asian region. Any disputes or conflicts over water resources can have far-reaching implications for the region’s security and stability. The sharing of water resources is a complex and sensitive issue, and any mismanagement or disputes can lead to tensions between countries.

Therefore, both India and Pakistan need to work together to resolve any disputes or issues that may arise regarding the implementation of the treaty. Both countries need to communicate openly and transparently with each other about any new projects being planned or constructed on the shared rivers. The World Bank, which brokered the treaty, should also play an active role in monitoring the implementation of the treaty and resolving any disputes or issues that may arise.

Moreover, the collaboration between India and Pakistan on the Indus Water Treaty can also serve as a model for other countries in the region. South Asia is home to many transboundary rivers, and the successful collaboration between India and Pakistan on the Indus Water Treaty can provide a template for other countries in the region to manage their shared water resources.

Indus Water Treaty is critical to the peace and stability of the South Asian region. The successful collaboration between India and Pakistan on the implementation of the treaty is crucial to maintaining peace and stability in the region.

Indus Water Treaty is a binding agreement between India and Pakistan that provides a framework for the sharing of water resources between the two countries. The treaty is inviolable, and both countries have certain rights and obligations under the treaty. However, the fast-tracking of hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir has caused issues with the treaty, primarily with regards to the western rivers of the Indus, which are allocated to Pakistan under the treaty. To ensure the inviolability of the treaty, both India and Pakistan need to work together to resolve any disputes or issues that may arise regarding the implementation of the treaty.

Indus water treaty has so far proven to be a formidable arrangement, withstanding wars and political upheaval for decades now. This is an amazing success of global rule based order. And it also speaks volume of commitment shown by India and Pakistan. The joint institutional mechanism developed by IWT has continued to work and collaborate.

Courtesy: South Asia Journal

Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Implications for South Asia

According to South Asia Journal, the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is creating ripples in the global geopolitics. Though, the western media analysis of it as a likely cause for the world war seems far-fetched, the horrors of the limited war, undoubtedly are visible for all to see.

While the role and actions/inactions of major powers Russia, United States, Europe and NATO as a whole are to be seen and analyzed by many, in their respective ways, it would be interesting to make an assessment of implications that it will have on south Asia.

Two major powers in the region, China and India, have found themselves in an unenviable situation. Both have very close politico-strategic relations with Russia but neither wants to take an open stance against Ukraine either, on account of their proximity with US-led Europe.

It is evident that both have failed to openly support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They have asked for peace and abstained from three crucial UN meetings on the issue, leaving Russia to resorting the UNSC Veto and fend for itself.

China has significant economic stakes in Ukraine. It is the largest trading partner. Ukraine is one of the major stakeholders of Xi Jinping’s ambitious political masterpiece Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. Both Russia and Ukraine are military suppliers to China as well.

In spite of Chinese political relations with Russia with no upper limit, its reactions in the ongoing conflict indicate that it was caught off-guard.

It could not anticipate Putin’s determination and failed to issue relevant advisory to its citizens in time. While Singapore and Taiwan issued guidelines to their limited number of citizens in Ukraine as early mid-February, the Chinese embassy was found clueless about the impending conflict.

Further, China has more of ideological and strategic affinities with Russia rather economic. The bilateral trade between the two at US$ 147 billion is about 2% of Chinese global trade. Its trade and economic stakes with Europe is much more important. Irrespective of the frequent diplomatic and political skirmishes with the United States, China knows very well that it cannot afford to get into a full-throttle political, economic or diplomatic battle with the US and its European allies.

India has almost 20,000 citizens in Ukraine, mostly students studying medicine there. It has major political, strategic, diplomatic and economic relations with Russia and cannot afford to antagonize it.

A major chunk Indian military supplies, including hardware and spares, along with S-400 air defense system too, come from Russia. Though in recent years, its dependence on Russia has reduced considerably, mainly due to import diversification to countries like the US, Israel, France and also due to indigenous ramping up of production and R&D capabilities in defense.

Russia has on all occasions in the last five decades stood by India, politically and diplomatically, including using the crucial veto in the UNSC once on the Kashmir issue.

Similarly, Ukraine has good working relations with India but has voted openly against India on its nuclear tests in 1998, supported the UNSC sanctions and provided a fair amount of military hardware to Pakistan, to be used against India. But of late, relations between the two are on an upswing and India would not like to jeopardize its relations with either.

A comparative cost-benefit analysis of national interests though certainly outweighs any explicit diplomatic hysteria on the lines, demonstrated by the west against Russia currently.

India is currently indulged in a delicate balancing act. It has expressed its concerns against invasion to Russia at the highest levels privately while appreciating their security concerns. It has also conveyed to the US and major European countries of its need to perceived neutrality.

At the same time, it is working in tandem with both Russian and Ukrainian governments, to ensure safety and evacuation of its citizens, at the earliest.

As for the direct and short-term implications, trade and military supplies for both China and India, are certain to be affected. Both are preparing for a significant disruption in their exports to the two warring nations.

For India, the timely supply of remaining S-400 systems are of critical significance given the uncertain state of its current politico-military relationship with China. The middle kingdom on the other hand, must be watching the outcome of this conflict keenly since it could provide it an opportunity to re-orient its possible invasion of Taiwan strategy in due course of time.

A good number Pakistanis stuck in Ukraine are students. Initially confounded and even putting up a statement of financial limitations, its government now is trying to evacuate its citizens.

India claims that many Pakistani and Turkish citizens have been evacuated from the war zone, by identifying themselves as Indian and hoisting Indian flags on their vehicles since India has strongly demanded the two warring sides, to ensure safety of its citizens who neither side wishes to antagonize.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Russia the day, Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine. For Pakistan this became a very awkward moment since the west became furious with his meeting with the perceived aggressor, Putin at that very moment.

It is also believed that National Bank of Pakistan became the first casualty with the US imposing a penalty of US$ 55 million on it while politically, the country remains at the receiving end of western fury.

Bangladesh with about 3,000 citizens stuck in Ukraine, too has good working relations with both countries. With Ukraine, its economic relations are growing rapidly and it is also helping Bangladesh in developing infrastructure, steel and ports. Similarly, Russia is politically too important to be disowned and criticized by it.

Nepal too has few citizens left in the war zone that have reportedly been evacuated by the Indian authorities and brought back home.

Maldives, the tiny island nation in the Indian Ocean has started feeling the impact of war since a considerable number of its foreign tourists involve both Russian and Ukrainians.

Though the south Asian region remains a bit far off from the battle raging on yet it has certainly affected countries there.

The Russo-Ukraine war has also resulted in delicate diplomatic balancing by countries around the world and China and India, primarily are on the radar.

The United Nations has not been successful in negotiating ceasefire, which raises another big question mark on the utility of the world body. The efficacy of the US-led NATO too raises doubts, both among its members and non-members. However, to prevent widespread destruction and disorder, the early the war is stopped the better that would be for the world and the humanity.

Takeaways from Wilson Center Seminar

The withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Afghanistan, the rapid deterioration of the Afghan government and military, and the return of the Taliban will have profound implications for the future of South Asia. 

At Wilson Center in the latest event in its “Afghanistan: Hindsight Up Front” initiative participants discuss the future of the region with leading journalists, former diplomats, and thought leaders from India and Pakistan. Following are selected quotes:

David Hale

"I’d like to comment first on Afghanistan. Our leverage remains real…it’s limited. The Taliban, in my opinion, do not crave international legitimacy so much that they will compromise on their core principles or change their true colors. Their statements, the ones that we're hearing now, are to be expected, while their behavior, which we're seeing now, demonstrates that they've not really changed since 2001. And when they say governance will be guided by Sharia, they mean their version of the Sharia, which will make Saudi Arabia look a lot like the city of San Francisco."

"We must apply pressure, even if chances of it altering behavior are limited. We can build a coalition that will take the measures we have already taken, and more. I am speaking of freezing assets, stopping cash transfers, withholding diplomatic recognition, continuing UN sanctions, while of course communicating to the Taliban, how to ease these pressures, which would be on their part, suppressing ISIS and Al Qaeda, protecting human rights and humanitarian access, and allowing the processing of refugees, among other goals."

Maleeha Lohdi

"While there is no daylight between various members of the international community on what the expectation is of the Taliban. If you look at the Security Council statement, if you look at the OIC communiqué, you look at the Human Rights Council statement of two days ago. They all say the same thing, so do not underestimate the power of collective opinion, this is extremely important. I also think it's unprecedented. Never have I seen—I've served at the UN for five years—never have I seen so much solidarity, in terms of expectations. So, I don't think it would be correct to say that the Russians and the Chinese want something else, and the Americans everybody wants, top of the agenda, as David Hale says, top of the agenda for everyone, is combating terrorism, there is no question about that."

Nandan Unnikrishnan

"A stable Afghanistan, under Taliban rule—oppressive or not, I'm not getting into that—would distinctly increase China's role in the region. China's BRI would definitely then move ahead and Central Asia, West Asia, and of course, parts of South Asia, would come under increasing influence of the Chinese. From an Indian perspective, given our current relationship with China, it is not necessarily the best scenario. But, at the same time, as I said, it is probably better than the second scenario, where Afghanistan is unstable. I think Ambassador Lodhi has very eloquently described what happens to the region, not only us, but even, let's say, Central Asia and other areas….It is a danger, not just to Pakistan, it's a danger for everyone."

Huma Yusuf

"No, I think this does get at the point that I was trying to make right at the outset, which is that, I think a lot of this, this myth of Pakistan’s leverage, or so-called, control, or puppet mastery of the Taliban, this is outdated and inaccurate and is certainly not rooted in what's to come. A lot of that will have to do with the dispensation that does emerge in Afghanistan and the level of control that a Taliban-led regime based in Kabul would have over the rest of the country, and on the sort of numerous militant groups that are operating in that area, and the fact that, we know that there will never be that kind of neat, centralized control, and we also know that, as activities happen and fingers are pointed here and there, that all groups will constantly try and refer to this idea of plausible deniability, that actually what I see emerging is a scenario where there is more potential for two sovereign states, Pakistan and Afghanistan, to find themselves at odds, and so there's this notion that Pakistan will be the leverage, Pakistan will speak to the Taliban, on behalf of the rest of the world, I just think that that's an outdated notion."

Venkateswaran Lokanathan

"The other question that I think requires a fair deal of deliberation is whether the US will accept a more proactive role for Russia and China in Afghanistan and the region moving forward. Russia has already started playing a more active role in neighboring Central Asia. President Putin has expressed concerns over the spillover of radical Islam into the region. Simultaneously, the presence of certain groups like the ETIM, which is sympathetic to the UYGHER cause in Xinjiang, also raises concern for China, and hence China is also now becoming more actively involved.  It has already begun diplomatic engagement with Taliban, and President Xi, and President Putin, have also agreed to cooperate with developments in Afghanistan, and more importantly against foreign interference. "

Mark Green

"In 2020, Congress created a blue-ribbon panel of experts called the Afghanistan Study Group. Its purpose was to create new recommendations on Afghanistan for policymakers. I was a member of that study group. Our final report called “A Pathway for Peace,” concluded that the best American approach for Afghanistan, required a new overarching regional strategy. The report stated that Afghanistan lies in the middle of a region beset with rivalries and low levels of trust. It saw the potential for a fragile, but real regional consensus, behind a stable and neutral Afghanistan, that is neither a haven for terrorists, nor a fiefdom of the Taliban. We found that a stable Afghanistan would create the potential for regional economic cooperation that could benefit all countries in the region. But we also warned that an unstable Afghanistan risks destabilizing the region, to continue trade and illicit drugs, the attraction of extremist ideologies, and the possible exacerbation of the rivalry between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed powers."

What could be likely impact of Gaza crisis on South Asia?

While some analysts may say South Asia is not a party to the Gaza conflict, the region is still vulnerable to its potentially destabilizing effects. It poses security risks within the region, including violent protests and terrorist attacks.

It is worth exploring what the crisis means for South Asia, which does not have common border with the Middle East. India and Nepal have long-standing links to Israel and Bhutan normalized ties in December 2020. As against this Pakistan fully support the Palestinian cause.

India has strengthened its ties with Israel significantly. Relations between the two countries have grown stronger under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He became the first sitting Indian prime minister to visit Israel. India has supported the Palestinian cause in the past. In 2018, Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit the Palestinian territories too.

India’s ambassador to the United Nations issued a bit confusing statement on the conflict. He condemned Palestinian violence and described Israel’s use of force as retaliatory, but in the same breath affirmed India’s strong support for the Palestinian cause and two-state solution.

As against this, Pakistan has put to rest all lingering speculation that it could be one of the next countries normalizing ties with Israel. Pakistan made it clear that it will only recognize Israel when a Palestinian state is established.

Some analysts say the current conflict also poses security risks for South Asia. It could spark pro-Palestinian protests that could lead to violence. They also fear that some non-state actors or miscreants hiding in Afghanistan may enter Kashmir and try to put the valley inferno.

India upset with efforts to improve relations between Islamabad and Dhaka

The recent move of Pakistan to lift visa restrictions for Bangladeshi citizens and Dhaka’s request that Islamabad issue an apology for mass killings during its 1971 war of independence have raised concerns in India. 

Indians believe that any improvement in relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh will have implications for the complex geopolitical dynamics in South Asia, where India sees Bangladesh as an ally but Pakistan as a foe.

New Delhi also seeks to counter China’s growing influence in the region, which it deems its traditional area of influence.

India is propagating that China is behind Pakistan’s initiative to improve ties with Bangladesh. India also alleges that China wants Pakistan to activate its assets in Bangladesh.

India insists that China wants to develop its own support base among countries in India’s neighbourhood and use them against New Delhi, as part of its ‘string of pearls’ strategy.

For Bangladeshis, the long-sought apology from Pakistan for the 1971 genocide is a sensitive issue, and one necessary for relations to move forward. The liberation move which lasted nine months had led to a war between India and Pakistan.

Bangladesh has been demanding an apology from Pakistan. For the first time the request was conveyed formally, when Pakistan’s High Commissioner in Dhaka, Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, visited Bangladesh’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Shahriar Alam, for talks on strengthening economic cooperation. To Indian observers, the meeting between Alam and Siddiqui suggested a warming of ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh.

At one stage the relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan were strained to the extent that both sides expelled each other’s diplomats, imposed visa bans on each other’s nationals. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not approve appointment of Pakistani High Commissioner to Dhaka for 20 months.

She accepted the appointment and in July 2020 and spoke to her counterpart, Prime Minister Imran Khan. In the diplomatic circle Hasina’s move was termed a positive development.

Bangladesh celebrates its 50th year of independence on March 26 and also the birth centenary of the country’s founding father, Mujibur Rahman, who is Hasina’s father. Analysts say that if Hasina succeeds in getting Pakistan’s apology it will be a prized feather in her cap.

Indian experts say Pakistan’s ability to tender an apology depended on Khan receiving support from the army and an Islamic group, both of which were implicated in atrocities during Bangladesh’s struggle of independence.

Indian instance is based on the role China had played in early seventies encouraging Bangladesh’s first government under Mujibur Rahman to come to terms with Islamabad. They also say Beijing had persuaded Rahman to drop his pursuit of alleged Pakistani war criminals in exchange for a seat at the United Nations, which Beijing had blocked unless Rahman acceded to its demands.

Meanwhile, India has tried to solidify its ties with Bangladesh, including by sending its top Foreign Service bureaucrat, Harsh Shringla, to Dhaka in August last year to assure Hasina of Delhi’s continued support after relations had been strained over the issue of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh into India and the alleged persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh.

Joe Biden nominates 20 Indo-Americans, 13 of them women

Joe Biden, President of United States has nominated at least 20 Indian Americans, including 13 women, to key positions in his administration. Among the Indians are Hindus, Muslims and Christians. As many as 17 of them would be part of the White House complex. This comes as a feat for the small ethnic community that constitutes one percent of America’s population.

Kamala Harris is also the first person of South Asia descent to sworn in as Vice President of the United States. “The dedication that the Indian-American community has shown to public service over the years has been recognized in a big way at the very start of this administration! I am particularly pleased that the overwhelming majority are women. Our community has truly arrived in serving the nation,” Indiaspora founder M. R. Rangaswami told PTI.

Biden had assured the Indian-American community during a virtual celebration of India’s Independence Day on August 15, 2020 that he will continue to reply on the diaspora during his presidential stint. “My constituents in Delaware, my staff in the Senate, the Obama-Biden administration, which had more Indian-Americans than any other administration in the history of this country and this campaign with Indian Americans at senior levels, which of course includes the top of the heap, our dear friend (Harris) who will be the first Indian-American vice president in the history of the United States of America,” Biden had said in his video address.

Here’s a list of all the India-Americans nominated so far:

Neera Tanden: She has been nominated as Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.

Dr Vivek Murthy: He has been nominated as the US Surgeon General.

Vanita Gupta: She has been nominated as Associate Attorney General Department of Justice.

Uzra Zeya: She has been nominated under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights.

Mala Adiga: She has been appointed as Policy Director to the First Lady Dr Jill Biden.

Garima Verma: She has been nominated as the Digital Director of the Office of the First Lady.

Sabrina Singh: She has been named as the First Lady’s Deputy Press Secretary.

Aisha Shah: She has been named as Partnership Manager at the White House Office of Digital Strategy.

Sameera Fazili: She would occupy the key position of Deputy Director at the US National Economic Council (NEC) in the White House.

Bharat Ramamurti: He has been nominated as the Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council.

Gautam Raghavan: He has been nominated as Deputy Director in Office of Presidential Personnel.

Vinay Reddy: He has been named as Director of Speechwriting.

Vedant Patel: He has been nominated as Assistant Press Secretary to the President.

Sonia Aggarwal: She has been named Senior Advisor for Climate Policy and Innovation in the Office of the Domestic Climate Policy at the White House.

Vidur Sharma: He has been appointed as Policy Advisor for Testing for the White House Covid-19 Response Team.

Apart from them, three Indian-Americans have made their way to the crucial National Security Council of the White House, thus leaving a permanent imprint on the country’s foreign policy and national security. They are: Tarun Chhabra –Senior Director for Technology and National Security; Sumona Guha — Senior Director for South Asia; Shanthi Kalathil — Coordinator for Democracy and Human Rights

Two Indian-Americans women have been appointed to the Office of the White House Counsel — Neha Gupta as Associate Counsel and Reema Shah as Deputy Associate Counsel.

Courtesy: South Asia Journal

Will US pull troops out of Afghanistan?

A question is often asked by the citizens of countries directly or indirectly affected by the Proxy War in Afghanistan; will United States pull out its troops occupying the country after 2014? 

The overwhelming perception is, it will not. To understand this it is necessary to explore reasons why the country is being occupied under the disguise of Nato and ISEAF.

One point is very clear that the objective was not to liberate Afghanistan from the control of USSR or Taliban but to occupy it for economical and political reasons. Presence of Al-Qaeda was not an excuse for attack. Iraq was also not attacked because of Al-Qaeda but oil. Neither Afghanistan nor Iraq had attack the world trade center.

One could find two possible reasons for occupying Afghanistan; valuable metals and geopolitics. Studies conducted by USSR showed that trillions of dollars worth precious and rare metals are present in Afghanistan.

Being the super power United States maintains its military dominance by brining countries all around the world under its hegemony to combat enemies. Afghanistan has an important place in the US foreign policy due to common borders with Pakistan, Iran, China and many oil and gas rich Central Asian countries.

After the Islamic Revolution Iran is being projected the biggest threat for the world, especially Arab monarchies and more recently for its nuclear program denouncing US hegemony. United States is planning for the ultimate day when troops will be deployed in Iran to takeover its nuclear assets. It needs an outpost near Iran and Afghanistan is the ideal country.  The two countries share a long mountainous border, which is virtually impossible fully monitor and defend.  

China is the second most powerful superpower, which is likely to surpass the gross domestic product of the United States by 2020 and become world’s strongest economic superpower.  United States already has outposts in Taiwan and South Korea, Afghanistan gives them a third root of attack should it be necessary.

Afghanistan was a hostage of the Cold War. The United States supported Pakistan and the USSR patronized Afghanistan and India against Pakistan. After Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 the Soviet leadership anticipated that in order to compensate its defeat in Iran the United States might seek to expand its influence in Afghanistan.

The USSR believed that getting control over Afghanistan could give it a perfect foot hold in South Asia and the Middle East. It would have access to a new ocean and proximity to the vast oil riches of the Middle East. There are no warm water ports in Afghanistan, but getting control over the Khyber Pass, an ancient trade route to China on the East and one step closer to Iran and Turkey on the West and Pakistan on the South, all with warm water ports.

With the disintegration of USSR, despite having tons of lethal arsenals and China focusing on its economy, the sole surviving super power seems too ambitious in establishing its hegemony in South Asia and MENA and Afghanistan appears to be the most ideal outpost. Therefore, probability of end to the US occupation of Afghanistan is hoping against the hopes. 

US – The biggest Arm Seller

Civilian Suffurings in Syria

I am one of the millions of people who fail to understand why conflicts are created and allowed to grow that often lead to anarchy, civil war and war among the countries.

One of the hypotheses is that when conflicts between rulers and being ruled grow the story starts with peaceful demonstration, when often get violent and soon it becomes ‘free for all’.

Lately, the uprising in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has become a thorn as super powers are taking active part in dethroning or consolidating the positions of rulers. Whatever is happening in Bahrain is being condoned but arms and funds are being supplied to rebel groups in Syria, the same was done in Libya in the recent past. Earlier efforts were made to develop rebel groups in Iran.

One of the conspiracy theories is proxy wars of the super powers is fought by smaller countries, the most notorious being Afghanistan. The United States prepared Taliban to defeat USSR and the war continued for nearly a decade because warlords started claim in booty.

According to one of the latest reports during 2012 the United States will make a record sale of armaments to the world but Saudi Arabia has emerged the biggest buyer. Is this the preamble of another attack on Iran? People still have in their memories that when Iraq attached Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia supported his war mania.

I have read somewhere a quote that over the next five years, seven Muslim countries may come under attack, the most probable top two being Pakistan and Iran. The saga is likely to start once withdrawal of Nato solider from Afghanistan starts in 2014. It is believed that military hardware will be kept in Afghanistan and can be used against these two countries.

Pakistan Must Opt for Oil for Food

While the United States continues to say that Iran is busy in production of nuclear warheads, it hasn’t come up with any credible proof. Many doubt it is a hoax call like presence of Osama in Afghanistan and Iraq busy in production of weapons of mass destruction.

The growing perception is the United States considers Iran a hurdle in creation of its hegemony in the region, the major supply of crude oil.

There is also growing feeling among Pakistanis that due to the US pressure the ruling junta the country had already stopped buying oil from Iran, construction of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline being delayed and even supply of wheat in exchange for being put on hold. Even in the worst scenario ‘oil for food’ program was followed in Iraq.

The United States has exempted seven countries, 10 member countries of European Union and no mention has been made of China.

The US fully aware that Pakistan’s GDP growth is being pegged due to looming energy crisis and the country needs low cost energy products immediately. However, Pakistan is not being allowed crude oil, gas and electricity from Iran.

The time has come Pakistanis should assert themselves and convince the US that buying energy products from Iran bodes well for Pakistan. If India can pay Iran in Rupee, Pakistan should be allowed to buy energy products from Iran against supply of wheat.