Trump's comeback is remarkable

Donald Trump completed an extraordinary comeback early Wednesday morning, becoming the first president to win nonconsecutive terms in more than a century by defeating Vice President Harris in an unprecedented battle for the White House. The comeback is remarkable for a host of reasons.

The 45th president’s political career seemed to be over after he sought to overturn his 2020 election defeat and spurred his supporters to march on the Capitol, an event that led to a riot and the evacuation of Congress.

Trump became the first president ever to be twice impeached; was charged in four separate criminal cases; was found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case; and was convicted in criminal court of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

But Trump was buoyed by a fervently loyal support base — most of whom believe his narrative that he has been unfairly victimized by a corrupt political, legal and media establishment.

“We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible,” Trump told supporters during his West Palm Beach, Fla., victory speech in the early hours Wednesday, calling his win “a magnificent victory for the American people.”

He also gained from public dissatisfaction with President Biden’s record.

It all went wrong from early on for Harris

The writing was on the wall from early in the evening for Harris.The first warning sign was a very early call that Trump would win Florida. The result itself was no shock — but the fact Trump was winning by roughly double the 6-point edge that polling averages had predicted was ominous for the Democratic nominee.

The pro-Trump pattern continued for much of the night, with supposedly safe Democratic states such as Virginia and even New Jersey hanging undecided for uncomfortably long stretches for Team Harris, while Trump jumped into early leads in every swing state.

Harris left her event at Washington’s historic Howard University without speaking publicly. She was expected to speak later Wednesday.

Latino men swing heavily to Trump

Much media coverage in advance of Election Day had focused on whether Trump would make inroads with Black voters, especially Black men, or with younger voters.

In fact, changes within those demographic groups were modest — at least according to the current exit polls, which may still shift somewhat as fresh data is added.

But there was one real shock. Latino men shifted toward Trump by a breathtaking margin, according to the CNN exit polls.

In 2020, those exit polls showed Latino men voting for Biden over Trump by a 23-point margin, 59 percent to 36 percent.

The current iteration of Tuesday’s CNN exit poll showed them voting for Trump over Harris by a 10-point margin, 54 percent to 44 percent.

The astonishing 33-point swing is going to lead to a lot of searching and uncomfortable questions among Democrats.

Trump supporters will contend that his cultural conservatism and promise of a better economy helped turn the tide.

But that explanation doesn’t really make sense of why Latina women shifted only very slightly in their partisan support.

It’s tough to find a plausible argument that doesn’t include some level of sexism.

Harris, of course, now becomes the second female Democratic nominee to lose to Trump, after Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The abortion issue failed to make the difference

A lot of Democratic hopes were riding on the idea that women would come out in unprecedented numbers to elect the nation’s first female president, just two years after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. It didn’t happen.

There was a wide gender gap, to be sure — but the exit polls so far don’t indicate it was bigger in a meaningful way than four years ago.

On the contrary, women went for Biden over Trump by 15 points in 2020, according to the CNN exit polls. So far this year, the exit polls show Harris carrying female voters by just 10 points.

That doesn’t mean abortion has been transformed into a winning issue for Republicans — it hasn’t.

For example, a ballot initiative on abortion in Florida didn’t get the 60 percent supermajority it needed to pass. But a clear majority, about 57 percent, lined up on the liberal side of the question.

Still, the bottom line is that the abortion issue didn’t prove nearly as potent as Harris needed it to be.

There will be serious Democratic infighting

The result is a cataclysm for Democrats. Their nominee has lost to a man whom many in their party consider an active danger to American democracy. So, the finger-pointing will immediately begin.

Many Democrats will dwell on the sequence of events that led to Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July. That came after a debate debacle in late June.

The number of people who believe the president would have done better than Harris is vanishingly small. But his decision not to step aside after one term — and the party’s lack of appetite for a competitive primary against him — will be second-guessed by those who feel such a process would either have strengthened Harris or produced a better nominee.

The messaging of the Harris campaign will also be subject to harsh scrutiny.

Did she spend too much time arguing Trump was a “fascist” in a way that was merely preaching to the choir?

Was the attempt to win over disaffected Republican voters by campaigning with conservative figures such as former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) always doomed to fail?

Would a more vigorous concentration on working-class concerns have helped stanch Trump’s appeal, or would a more adventurous media strategy have paid dividends?

At some level, it’s possible these questions are unfair. Maybe the headwinds Harris faced on the economy — and as the deputy of a president with mediocre poll ratings — were just too stiff to overcome.

But that won’t stop those questions from being asked.

Trump might well have unified GOP government

Trump will have a Republican majority in the Senate — and quite possibly in the House as well.

Democrats were always going to have a hard time in the upper chamber, where they were on the defensive in several red-leaning states.

Deeply red West Virginia was always a near-certain loss once Democratic-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin announced he would retire. Republican Gov. Jim Justice was duly elected there.

Elsewhere, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) lost his seat to GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Incumbent Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) are in trouble too, though they could yet rally and prevail.

In the House, the picture remained unclear in Wednesday’s early hours, and may take several days to be settled. But it is certainly possible that the Republicans could retain a narrow majority.

If that comes to pass, it would complete a remarkable sweep by the GOP.

Courtesy: The Hill

 

Israel-Lebanon escalation to weigh on Kamala

Escalation of conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah leading to higher oil prices and inflation could weigh on the popularity of US Presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, reports ZAWYA.

The resulting uncertainty in the region would lead to higher oil prices and inflation, which could make Kamala less popular, Yoel Sano, head of global, political and security risk, BMI, said.  

Republican candidate, Donald Trump is likely to be less critical of Israel and Saudi Arabia, while Kamala is, rhetorically at least, more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, experts said.

Should Trump return to the White House, Sano said a nuclear deal with Iran is ‘not impossible’ under his leadership.

But there is a matter of willingness on the Iranian side, and a Kamala presidency would be ‘more conducive’ to re-starting talks, Sano said, as well while Trump did not object to a nuclear deal in principle, he objected to a deal signed by President Barack Obama in 2015. 

“Iran is potentially undergoing a leadership transition. The supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 85 and has been in office 35 years.

“In this context, his would-be successors are unlikely to want to be seen as soft towards the US by rushing towards a new nuclear deal with the US,” he said.

While the Israel-Hamas conflict is likely to take ‘many months’ to resolve, BMI would expect it to be over by the time the new Presidential term starts in January 2025, Sano said.

Both Kamala and Trump continue to favour the process of normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which has been delayed by the Israel-Hamas conflict, he said, adding that it is unclear when progress can be made.

While escalation of Israel and Hezbollah hostilities would weigh heavily, BMI last month put likelihood that escalation would happen at 30%, with both sides unlikely to want it due to factors including increased domestic tensions and economic costs.

Tension between the two sides flared at the weekend, but analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence said the exchange of fire was unlikely to grow in scope.

BMI projections for the US election, which is due to take place in November, showed a tight 50–50 race between Trump and Kamala, with Kamala perceived as a "highly energizing candidate" compared to Biden, Iris Malone, BMI’s director, political science, data modelling, said.  

Prior to her entering the race, polling on Democrat party voter enthusiasm was 36% in April, but it has jumped to 85% for Kamala, she said.

 

Netanyahu should resign and surrender

Jill Stein has been one of the loudest and clearest voices in the race for president demanding justice for Gaza, and that begins with Benjamin Netanyahu immediately resigning as Prime Minister and surrendering to authorities. Netanyahu is a war criminal who has been charged with the following crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC);

·  Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(b)(xxv) of the Statute;

·  Willfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health contrary to article 8(2)(a)(iii), or cruel treatment as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);

·  Willful killing contrary to article 8(2)(a)(i), or Murder as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);

·  Intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as a war crime contrary to articles 8(2)(b)(i), or 8(2)(e)(i);

·  Extermination and/or murder contrary to articles 7(1)(b) and 7(1)(a), including in the context of deaths caused by starvation, as a crime against humanity;

·  Persecution as a crime against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(h);

·  Other inhumane acts as crimes against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(k).

Jill demands Americans should not support the Biden-Harris funded genocide, and they should never accept this forced alliance with a war criminal.

Jill Stein: Wildcard Entry in US Election

Jill Ellen Stein born on May 14, 1950, is an American physician, activist, politician. She is currently running for president in the 2024 United States presidential election. Her campaigns for president have focused heavily on the proposal of a Green New Deal, which includes a number of reforms intended to address climate change and income inequality, as well as civil and political rights reform.

She was the Green Party's nominee for president of the United States in the 2012 and 2016 elections and the Green-Rainbow Party's candidate for governor of Massachusetts in 2002 and 2010.

In 2012, Stein received 469,015 votes, which accounted for 0.36% of the popular vote; in 2016, she received 1.45 million votes or 1.07% of the popular vote.

Stein originally supported activist and scholar Cornel West's 2024 presidential campaign under the Green Party and became his campaign manager.

After West withdrew his bid for the Green presidential nomination in order to instead continue his run for the presidency as an independent, Stein retracted her endorsement for West and said the Green Party would find a nominee elsewhere. She also hinted at a possible bid of her own.

On November 09, 2023, Stein announced her third bid for president on X (formerly Twitter), citing her main priorities as being anti-war, paving the way for a Green New Deal, Universal Healthcare, and a "pledge to stop genocide”. 

Stein's campaign has been criticized by the Democratic Party as having the potential to erode Joe Biden's support in the general election among left-wing voters.

US Election: A race like no other in history

Immediately after US President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, a move not seen since President Lyndon Johnson stepped back at the height of the Vietnam War, a question suddenly arose. What path would Vice President Kamala Harris take to try and beat Donald Trump?

“Americans are going to have to choose between moving forward or backward, between hope and hate, between unity and division,” Biden said. “We have to decide—do we still believe in honesty, decency, respect, freedom, justice and democracy.”

The Republican nominee had been on a winning streak of late, avoiding a spotlight on his historic criminal conviction, pending trials or even repeated references to a fictional serial killer.

The media spent almost a month focused on Biden, his age and botched debate performance (Biden, at 81, is three years older than Trump).

Kamala wasted no time providing answers to the question. Her campaign is focusing on Trump’s status as a convicted felon, his various other legal entanglements, including being found liable for sexual abuse, and his starring role in blowing up abortion rights.

“I know Donald Trump’s type,” said the 59-year-old Kamala, a former US senator, state attorney general and district attorney.

Francis Wilkinson writes in Bloomberg Opinion that from here to November, the prosecutor should prosecute the predator. 

Polls showed the race tightening with Kamala’s entry, with more enthusiasm among Black and younger voters. Republicans are already trying to use immigration against her, despite Trump arguably being the main reason a bipartisan immigration reform bill was killed.

Then there’s the question of whether Americans are ready to elect the first female president.

Trump, who has a history of racist and misogynistic statements, risks alienating some of the very voters he needs if he pursues that track this time.

Many prominent Republicans however have already started racial attacks on Kamala, calling her “the DEI candidate.” In short, this is a race like no other in US history.

The next step will be for Kamala to select a running mate ahead of the Democratic National Convention.

As the new race was forming up this week, Biden addressed the nation, framing his decision to bow out as a way of uniting the country around a new generation of leaders. He also warned of what he’s said is the existential peril democracy faces in November. 

Courtesy: Bloomberg 

Netanyahu likely to face friend and foes in US

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the United States this week under pressure to end the Gaza war, from both Israelis and the US administration. How might the political turbulence in Washington shape the trip and future relations?

Netanyahu is set to meet Joe Biden – if the president has recovered from COVID-19 – and address a joint session of Congress, the only foreign leader to do so for a fourth time.

The trip offers him a platform for a reset with Washington after months of tensions over his hardline approach to the war, and an opportunity to try and convince Israelis that he hasn’t undermined relations with their most important ally.

But it is overshadowed by President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election, highlighting political uncertainties about Israel’s next partner in the White House and possibly eclipsing some of the attention on Netanyahu’s visit.

The prime minister got a lot of unwelcome attention in Israel until the moment he boarded the plane.

A drumbeat of protests demanded that he stay home and focus on a ceasefire deal with Hamas to free Israeli hostages.

“Until he has signed the deal that's on the table, I do not see how he picks up and flies across the Atlantic to address the American political chaos,” said Lee Siegel, one of the family members who has come out to demonstrate. His 65-year-old brother Keith is a captive in Gaza.

The trip is a political move, he added, unless Netanyahu stops being a hurdle and signs the ceasefire agreement.

Siegel reflected a widespread view that Netanyahu is slow-rolling the process for his own political reasons, roiling his negotiators when he recently threw new conditions into talks that seemed to be making progress.

The prime minister has been accused of bowing to pressure from two far-right cabinet ministers who’ve threatened to bring down his government if he makes concessions to Hamas.

These perceptions have added to frustrations in the White House, which announced the latest formula for talks and had been expressing optimism an agreement could be achieved.

Biden remains one of the most pro-Israel presidents to sit in the Oval Office, a self-declared Zionist who’s been lauded by Israelis for his support and empathy, cemented by his flight to Israel just days after the Hamas attacks on October 07, 2023.

But since then, he’s grown alarmed at the cost of Netanyahu’s demand for a “total victory” against Hamas in Gaza.

The administration is frustrated with the Israeli prime minister for rejecting a post-war solution that involves pursuing a Palestinian state.

It’s angry with him for resisting appeals to do more to protect Palestinian civilians and increase the flow of aid to them. It’s facing a domestic backlash over the mounting death toll in Gaza. And it’s worried that the conflict is spreading to the region.

As Joe Biden’s presidency weakened in the swirl of controversy over his abilities, analysts said there might be less room for him to keep up the pressure on the Israeli prime minister.

Biden’s decision to drop out of the race could actually have strengthened his hand, says Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister and a critic of Netanyahu.

“He is not a lame duck in regard to foreign policy, in a way he's more independent (because) he doesn't have to take into account any impact on the voters,” Barak told the BBC.

“With regard to Israel probably he feels more of a free hand to do what really needs to be done.”

Barak believes it was a mistake for Congress to invite Netanyahu to speak, saying that many Israelis blame him for policy failures that allowed the Hamas attack to happen, and three out of four want him to resign.

“The man does not represent Israel,” he said. “He lost the trust of Israelis...And it kind of sends a wrong signal to Israelis, probably a wrong signal to Netanyahu himself, when the American Congress invites him to appear as if he is saving us.”

Whatever politics he may be playing, Netanyahu insists military pressure must continue because it has significantly weakened Hamas after a series of strikes against the military leadership.

In comments before departing Israel, he suggested that would be the tone of his meeting with President Biden.

“It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the months ahead the goals that are important for both our countries,” he said, “achieving the release of all our hostages, defeating Hamas, confronting the terror axis of Iran and its proxies and ensuring that all Israel’s citizens return safely to their homes in the north and in the south.”

He’s expected to bring the same message to Congress, “seeking to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important to Israel”.

The reality is that Netanyahu’s policies have fractured that bipartisan support. The Republicans are rallying around him, but criticism from Democrats has grown.

The Democratic Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer caused a small earthquake in Washington recently when he stood up in the chambers and said Netanyahu was one of the obstacles standing in the way of lasting peace with Palestinians.

“I hope the prime minister understands the anxiety of many members in Congress and addresses them,” the former US ambassador to Israel, Thomas Nides, told the BBC at the weekend. He’d been addressing one of the many rallies demanding a hostage release.

That includes “on humanitarian issues and to articulate that this fight isn’t with the Palestinian people, it’s with Hamas."

It’s a message that Kamala Harris would repeat if she were to become the Democratic nominee. There’d be no change in US policy, a commitment to Israel’s security while pushing for an end to the Gaza conflict and a plan for the Day After embedded in a regional peace with Arab states, but there might be a difference in tone.

Kamala Harris does not share Biden’s long history with and emotional ties to Israel. She’s from a different generation and “could more closely align with the sentiments of younger elements of the Democratic party," says Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.

"That’s a stance more likely to include restrictions on weapons, on munitions from the United States for use in Gaza," he said.

Netanyahu could very well use the visit to steer the conversation from the controversy over Gaza to the threat from Iran, a topic with which he’s far more comfortable, especially after the recent escalation with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

But his main audience will be domestic, says Tal Shalev, the diplomatic correspondent at Israel’s Walla News.

He wants to revive his image as “America,” she says, the man who can best present Israel to the US, and to restore his image which was shattered by the October 07 attacks.

“When he goes to the US and speaks in front of Congress and [has] a meeting in the White House, for his electoral base, it's the old Bibi is back again,” she says, referring to the prime minister by his nickname. “This is not the failed Bibi who was responsible for the seventh of October. This is the old Bibi who goes to the Congress and gets the standing ovations.”

It also gives him an opportunity to pursue connections with former President Donald Trump at a time of great political flux in Washington.

“Netanyahu wants President Trump to win,” she says, “And he wants to make sure that he and President Trump are on good terms before the election.”

There is a widespread view that Netanyahu is playing for time, hoping for a Trump win that might ease some of the pressure he’s been facing from the Biden administration.

“There is a near-universal perception that Netanyahu is eager for a Trump victory, under the assumption that he will then be able to do whatever he wants,” writes Michael Koplow of Israel’s Policy Forum.

“No Biden pressuring him on a ceasefire or on West Bank settlements and settler violence... There are many reasons to doubt this reading of the landscape under a Trump restoration, but Netanyahu likely subscribes to it.”

The question is whether that pressure from Biden will ease as he steps away from the presidential race, or whether he will in fact use his remaining months in office to focus on achieving an end to the Gaza war.

Kamala Harris: Darling of billionaires

Till yesterday little was known to the world about Kamala Harris, likely choice of Democrats to be the next president of United States. It may be of some interest to the people living outside the US to know more about the likely presidential candidate.

It is a historic opportunity for the US citizens and the world that Democrats are in disarray and selection of Kamala Harris demonstrates once and for all that they don’t at all care for real democracy. Instead they chose to elevate a party insider who is backed by billionaires, lobbyists, and Super PACs. It is even more apparent that they are corporate controlled when one considers that Biden only stepped down after the billionaires withheld donations. In the hours since Biden announced he would not seek reelection, and his quick endorsement of Kamala, the anti-Democratic party raised US$50 million, suggesting that the big donors are lining up to support yet another pro-war, corporate candidate.

A follow up with some opposition research about the candidate the anti-democratic party appears to be coronating who has zero delegates. First, let’s look closely at her record as Attorney General, California’s Top Cop.

Her office fought tooth and nail against an order to decrease the inmate population after the Supreme Court ruled that the severe overpopulation of their prisons amounted to cruel and unusual punishment.

Her AG office’s attorneys explicitly argued that prisoners were needed to prop up the state’s firefighters needed to combat the wildfire crisis – these inmates were making one dollar an hour for this dangerous work.

Kamala jailed the parents of young people who were skipping classes. And laughed about it.

In 2014, Kamala refused to investigate a series of police shootings in San Francisco, where she had previously been District Attorney, ignoring pleas to do so following the police murder of Michael Brown.

Now let’s look at the Gaza genocide and where she really stands. Her presidential campaign coffers include access to US$5,395,227 of contributions from AIPAC.

She has stood by as the Biden administration has provided approximately US$25 million a day in military aid to Israel that has enabled them to carry out this genocide against the people of Gaza.

She co-sponsored a resolution condemning Barak Obama for his failure to veto a UN resolution denouncing illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

She waxed poetic about the Israeli Supreme Court’s architectural design, saying “The beauty of the architecture and spirit of design left a lasting impression…The Court, like Israel, is a beautiful home to democracy and justice in a region where radicalism and authoritarianism all too often shape government.”

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Between her political history and her dismal polling, she is clearly a terrible candidate. But the billionaires love her. She has raised tens of millions since Biden’s endorsement of her on X (formerly Twitter). 

 

 

Republicans ask Biden to leave White House

Many Republicans quickly called on President Joe Biden to resign and leave the White House after his announcement on Sunday that he would withdraw from the 2024 presidential race.

Republican leaders said that Biden's decision to step aside confirmed their view that he was not in cognitive shape to serve as president — an issue that has dogged the Democrat since his disastrous debate last month.

"If Joe Biden is not fit to run for president, he is not fit to serve as president," said House Speaker Mike Johnson, the most powerful Republican in congress.

"He must resign the office immediately. November 05 cannot arrive soon enough," he added, referring to Election Day.

Biden, in announcing that he was dropping out, said he would stay in office until the end of his term in January.

The White House a few hours later on Sunday reiterated he would not resign, stating "He looks forward to finish his term and delivering more historic results for the American people."

Leading Republicans piled on with similar calls to resign throughout Sunday afternoon, as they also directed fresh attacks at Vice President Kamala Harris, who would move into the Oval Office should Biden resign. Biden has endorsed her to be the next Democratic nominee.

New York Representative Elise Stefanik, the Republican conference chair, made almost the exact same statement as Johnson's about Biden's ability to fulfill his presidential duties.

She closed her statement similarly as well, "He must immediately resign."

Biden's rival for president, Donald Trump, said the Democratic leader was "not fit to serve from the very beginning" in response to the announcement — though he did not call for the president to resign.

Senator Steve Daines of Montana, who chairs Senate Republicans' campaign arm, said that being president "is the hardest job in the world".

"And I no longer have confidence that Joe Biden can effectively execute his duties as Commander-in-Chief,” he said in a statement.

Another Republican senator, Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, went further and appeared to suggest that Biden should be forced from office by exercising the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution — a never-used method to replace the president if he cannot fulfil his duties.

Critics of Trump had called for using the amendment to remove him when he was in office.

Many in the political world had been expecting to Biden to drop out of the race.

His rambling, frequently incoherent answers in the June 27 debate with Trump had stunned the country and left people wondering if he could serve as president for another four years. While in speeches and interviews Biden often showed renewed vigour, he was also dogged by major stumbles and seeming memory problems.

Democrats in Congress, worried that his shakiness would hurt their chances at re-election, and major donors began to press for him to drop out, but they did not press for him to resign.

The last president to abandon his election campaign, Lyndon B. Johnson, also served out the remainder of his term. Like Biden, Johnson had said that giving up the race would allow him to focus on his presidential duties.

As the pressure on Biden has grown in recent weeks, Republicans became more vocal about a resignation.

Just hours before the president announced he was stepping aside, Trump's new running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, said, "Not running for reelection would be a clear admission that President Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally fit enough to serve as Commander-in-Chief. There is no middle ground."

"Joe Biden has been the worst President in my lifetime and Kamala Harris has been right there with him every step of the way," he added.

Biden has endorsed Kamala Harris to take up the mantle of the presidential campaign, although the party will still have to formally approve its nominee.

"I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination," Kamala said in a statement. "I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party—and unite our nation—to defeat Donald Trump and his extreme Project 2025 agenda."

Republicans have reportedly prepared to attack Kamala’s candidacy — as many believed she was the most likely successor.

Trump campaign sources have told US media outlets that they were readying attack ads and opposition research in case they faced her.

Most criticism centers on the vice president's lead role on immigration issues within the administration. Several speakers at the Republican convention last week portrayed Kamala as a failed "border czar".

Those attacks returned on Sunday.

Speaker Johnson called her "a completely inept border czar" and said she had been "a gleeful accomplice" in "the destruction of American sovereignty, security, and prosperity".

"She has known for as long as anyone of his incapacity to serve," he said, while also accusing her of being part of a political cover up of Biden's problems.

Republican Governor Greg Abbott of Texas, known for taking a hard line on immigration that has led to legal actions, also expressed concerns about Kamala becoming president.

"I think I will need to triple the border wall, razor wire barriers and National Guard on the border," he wrote on social media.

Donald Trump Jr. the former president's son, broadly said her policies would be no different than Biden's.

"Kamala Harris owns the entire left-wing policy record of Joe Biden. The only difference is that she is even more liberal and less competent than Joe, which is really saying something," he posted on X, formerly Twitter.

 

Can Kamala be first-ever woman president of United States?

President Joe Biden has offered his full support and endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee following his withdrawal from the 2024 US presidential race.

He announced on X that he will not accept the Democratic nomination for the 2024 presidential race, instead choosing to focus on his duties as President for the remainder of his term.

"My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term," Biden wrote.

He highlighted the significance of his initial decision in 2020 to select Harris as his running mate, calling it the best decision he has made.

Biden's endorsement of Harris comes as he urges the Democratic Party to unite in the effort to defeat former President Donald Trump. "Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it's time to come together and beat Trump. Let's do this," Biden stated.

This endorsement positions Harris as the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination, as the party prepares for the upcoming election.

Biden’s decision came as he has been isolating at his Delaware beach house after being diagnosed with COVID-19 last week, huddling with a shrinking circle of close confidants and family members about his political future. Biden said he would address the nation later this week to provide “detail” about his decision.

Now, Democrats have to urgently try to bring coherence to the nominating process in a matter of weeks and persuade voters in a stunningly short time that their nominee can handle the job and beat Trump. And for his part, Trump must shift his focus to a new opponent after years of training his attention on Biden.

The decision marks a swift and stunning end to Biden’s 52 years in electoral politics, as donors, lawmakers, and even aides expressed to him their doubts that he could convince voters that he could plausibly handle the job for another four years.

Harris, 59, appeared to be the natural successor, in large part because she is the only candidate who can directly tap into the Biden campaign’s war chest, according to federal campaign finance rules.

Biden’s backing helps clear the way for Harris, but a smooth transition is by no means assured.

The Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held August 19-22 in Chicago, but the party had announced that it would hold a virtual roll call to formally nominate Biden before in-person proceedings begin.

It remained to be seen whether other candidates would challenge Harris for the nomination or how the party may need to adjust its rules again to smooth Harris’ nomination on the floor.

 

Potential replacements of Joe Biden

US President Joe Biden’s campaign is intensely trying to quell speculation that he may drop out of the 2024 race following his lackluster debate performance last week. 

Most top Democrats have voiced support for Biden continuing in the race, while members of his family, including first lady Jill Biden, have declared they also want him to remain a candidate, casting doubt on the potential for replacing Biden. 

But if Biden were to step aside, several prominent Democrats could be waiting in the wings as possible successors.

Here are the top possible Biden replacements: 

Kamala Harris 

If Biden were to decide against seeking reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the most obvious choice to replace him. Harris has defended Biden and emphasized his ability to serve another term in recent days, as have most other top Democrats who could be considered. 

Serving in the country’s second-highest office has given her some amount of executive governing experience, and Biden choosing her as his running mate already made her one of the top possible candidates for the 2028 nomination. 

With the presidential primaries concluded, Harris is also the only possible contender who could claim some past electoral mandate for the nomination, with the country having indirectly elected her as first-in-line to the presidency four years ago and Democratic voters backing Biden this year with the knowledge that she is the running mate. 

But Harris has some vulnerabilities. Her favorability rating has often been even lower than Biden’s, though she has improved somewhat in the past couple months and has a higher net approval rating than Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight.

She also could be dogged with criticisms of the Biden administration’s policies like immigration, on which she was spearheading an initiative. 

Still, Democrats could take a hit by passing over the first female Black vice president as its nominee when having the chance because Black voters will be a key constituency. A poll last month showed Harris would perform better with Black voters than Biden. 

Gavin Newsom 

If Harris were to be passed over, the California Gov. Gavin Newsom would almost certainly be at or near the top of many Democratic delegates’ list to be the nominee. 

Newsom has become one of the most prominent Democrats in the country over the past few years, in part because of his defense of Biden and his sparring with prominent Republicans, most notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

Despite ongoing speculation of Newsom having presidential ambitions, he has repeatedly denied interest in running for president in 2024. Following Biden’s debate, he appeared in the spin room to argue against ditching Biden just because of one performance and called talk of Biden being replaced “unhelpful and unnecessary” in a fundraising pitch for the president on Friday. 

But if Biden were to step aside, Newsom would very likely receive significant calls to throw his hat in the ring. 

He would be able to run on a record as a two-term governor of one of the largest economies in the world and tout many accomplishments during his tenure for the left in the solidly blue state. He also has overcome an attempt to recall him and is seen as a top possibility to run in 2028. 

Gretchen Whitmer 

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer first came to office in 2018, boosted by the slogan “Fix the Damn Roads,” which put a pragmatic focus on repairing the state’s infrastructure. Since then, she has become a rising liberal star in the Democratic Party. 

Her easy reelection victory in 2022 brought with it Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate, marking the first time in decades that Democrats had a trifecta of power in Michigan. She was also reelected alongside the passage of a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, an initiative she championed. 

Whitmer has been able to notch key victories, including the repeal of the state’s decades-old abortion ban and a “right-to-work” law to prop up unions. 

Still, Whitmer has been among the clearest of the rumored choices that she is not angling to replace Biden and is fully behind him. 

Politico reported the Whitmer called Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon on Friday to make clear she was not responsible for her name being floated as a possible replacement and is willing to help Biden with the campaign. She appeared in an ad supporting the Biden-Harris ticket that she posted Sunday on her account on the social platform X. 

Pete Buttigieg 

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was relatively unknown when he first began his run for president in 2020 but gained traction and popularity as “Mayor Pete,” having served as the mayor of South Bend, Ind. 

Buttigieg became a close advocate for Biden throughout 2020, culminating in his selection as Transportation secretary, making him the first openly gay Cabinet secretary. His success has raised speculation that he may try for another presidential run down the line. 

In particular, he had a high-profile moment in 2021 as Congress passed and Biden signed the bipartisan infrastructure law into effect. 

Buttigieg’s youth would also be a sharp contrast to Biden despite having less experience than some other rumored possibilities. But he struggled in 2020 with rallying minority, and especially Black support, and could face controversy over the administration’s handling of the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment. 

Josh Shapiro 

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro gradually rose to higher office in his home state before being elected state attorney general and eventually governor in 2022. He has developed a reputation over his career as a more moderate Democrat but was elected after running on key liberal issues, like protecting abortion rights and raising the minimum wage. 

His ability to comfortably win the governorship in the battleground by almost 15 points, as well as his youthful energy, has sparked rumors he could be a future face of the party, possibly running for the Oval Office in four years. 

But he would also likely get some attention this year if Biden were to end his presidential bid. He has been one of Biden’s top surrogates and called on his fellow Democrats to put in the work necessary to get Biden elected, saying “hand-wringing” and “fretting” are not the answer. 

“Democrats, stop worrying and start working. We all have the responsibility here to do our part,” Shapiro said during a Friday interview on MSNBC. 

JB Pritzker 

As the governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker is already set to receive some attention next month as the host governor of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. This, along with his rising national profile, could yield some support for his name to be placed in contention for the nomination. 

Pritzker is in his second term as the head of the strongly Democratic-leaning state and has been an ardent defender of Biden throughout the 2024 campaign. Also one of Biden’s top surrogates, he defended the incumbent following special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents and pushed back against Democrats planning to vote for anyone other than Biden in November. 

Pritzker also received attention after his abortion-rights group announced a US$500,000 investment into efforts to enshrine abortion rights into the Florida state constitution. 

But as with other Biden surrogates rumored as future presidential candidates, Pritzker has remained behind Biden. 

As the debate was wrapping up on Thursday, Pritzker argued on X the choice was “clear” in picking Biden over Trump, saying, “Voters face a stark choice in November. A president with the experience to fight for hardworking families across the country vs a 34-count convicted felon who cares only about himself.” 

Andy Beshear 

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear pulled off an impressive reelection victory in his ruby-red state last year, improving his margin by a few points over his first election in 2019. 

That thrust his name into the national conversation as someone who may have a future in the party, even though he will be term-limited in the next election. The governor is widely popular, only in his mid-40s and managed to win statewide as a Democrat twice in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since the 1990s. 

Beshear addressed the possibility of Biden being replaced Monday, telling reporters he will support Biden as long as the president remains the Democratic nominee. 

“The debate performance was rough. It was a very bad night for the president, but he is still the candidate. Only he can make decisions about his future candidacy. So as long as he continues to be in the race, I support him,” he said. 

When pressed on whether he could replace Biden, Beshear said talk of serving is “flattering” but is a “reflection of all the good things going on in Kentucky.”

Courtesy: The Hill

Who could replace Joe Biden?

Replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would be highly complicated, and likely impossible, unless the president voluntarily decides to back out, on his own.

Politically and mechanically, it is nearly impossible to believe that Democrats would or could forcibly prevent Biden from becoming the nominee.

Right now, Biden is the only candidate for whom those attending the Democratic convention can even vote.

He received 99% of his party’s delegates in the primaries, and Democratic delegates have pledged to back whoever won their state’s contest in the first round of voting.

Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules require delegates that Biden won to pledge their support for his nomination unless Biden were to willingly decide to step down and free his delegates for another candidate. 

Before the convention opens on August 19, the DNC could change the rules to block Biden, but that would require a level of political support hard to imagine. A battle between pro- and anti-Biden factions at a convention to unseat him is highly unlikely to happen.

But the possibility is conceivable that party leaders, including former Presidents Obama and Clinton, might be convinced to talk to Biden about dropping out, Democratic sources told The Hill.

Biden ultimately puts the most value on advice from first lady Jill Biden and his sister, Valerie, two people who are largely considered the only voices who could truly change his mind.

A situation unique to 2024 may give party leaders even less time to sort out who will be the nominee than they normally would have. Ohio state law requires its ballot to be certified 90 days prior to the election. This year that falls on August 07, almost two weeks before the convention starts.

Despite Ohio state lawmakers trying to pass a bill to fix the issue, they deadlocked, leading DNC leaders to decide to virtually nominate Biden in advance of the deadline and the convention. If they plan to follow through on this, any change in the nominee would need to happen before Ohio’s deadline if the candidate is to be on the ballot in the state, notwithstanding a fix from Ohio lawmakers.

On Friday, party leaders were coalescing around Biden and not giving any signal that they might privately push for him to drop out.

His campaign, the White House and surrogates have pushed back forcefully on the idea, but others said if polls show his performance is hurting down-ballot candidates, it could become a real subject.

The natural successor to Biden would be Vice President Harris. But she wouldn’t be the automatic replacement, if Biden were to drop out.

While Biden won the primaries, his support won through those contests cannot be bestowed by Biden on Harris.

Harris would instead, at the convention or sooner, compete with other potential candidates who might see themselves as stronger candidates than the vice president against presumptive GOP nominee, former President Trump.

According to its bylaws, the DNC has general responsibility for the affairs of the party between national conventions, and those responsibilities include filling vacancies in the nominations for the office of the president and vice president.

If Biden exited, there would be a vacancy, and Harris would be the logical successor.

Politically, some said it was hard to believe, at this stage, that someone could replace Harris if Biden wanted her to be his replacement on a ticket. But there would almost certainly be prospective politicians, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who might try.

“This is the bigger pickle to replacing Biden. I don’t see the Democratic coalition surviving intact if Harris is not on the top of the ticket, and it’s hard to assure that would be the party consensus if they replace Biden,” a former DNC official said.

If there were more than one Democratic candidate vying to replace a withdrawn Biden as the party’s nominee, those prospective candidates would likely need to fight it out with state delegations at the August convention in Chicago.

This would set up a scenario that hasn’t been seen in American politics in decades: A contested convention that actually selects the party’s nominee.

Conservative groups have suggested they will file lawsuits around the country, potentially questioning the legality of the Democratic candidate’s name on the ballot, in such a situation.

But in an interview with the Associated Press, Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, noted the courts have consistently stayed out of political primaries as long as parties running them weren’t doing anything that would contradict other constitutional rights, such as voter suppression based on race.

 

Kamala-Gantz meeting

According to the Associated Press, the US Vice President Kamala Harris, on Monday is hosting a member of Israel’s wartime Cabinet who is visiting Washington in defiance of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Benny Gantz, a centrist political rival of Netanyahu, is scheduled to meet several senior Biden administration officials including Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser. President Joe Biden is at Camp David, the presidential retreat just outside Washington, until Tuesday.

An official from Netanyahu’s far-right Likud party said Gantz did not have approval from the prime minister for his meetings in Washington and that Netanyahu gave the Cabinet official a “tough talk” — underscoring the widening crack within Israel’s wartime leadership nearly six months into the Israel-Hamas war.

In her meeting with Gantz, Harris plans to press for a temporary cease-fire deal that would allow for the release of several categories of hostages being held by Hamas. Israel has essentially agreed to the deal, according to a senior Biden administration official, and the White House has emphasized that the onus is on Hamas to come on board.

“Given the immense scale of suffering in Gaza, there must be an immediate cease-fire for at least the next six weeks, which is what is currently on the table,” Harris said during an appearance in Selma, Alabama, on Sunday. “This will get the hostages out and get a significant amount of aid in.”

Harris continued, “This would allow us to build something more enduring to ensure Israel is secure and to respect the right of the Palestinian people to dignity, freedom and self-determination.”

For his part, Gantz intends to strengthen ties with the US, bolster support for Israel’s war and push for the release of Israeli hostages, according to a second Israeli official. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t allowed to publicly discuss the disputes within the Israeli government.

The meetings also come as the US begins a series of airdrops of aid into Gaza, just days after dozens of Palestinians were killed as they were trying to get food from an Israel-organized convoy.

The first drop on Saturday included about 38,000 meals into southwest Gaza, and White House officials have said those airdrops will continue to supplement truck deliveries, while they also work on sending aid via sea.

In Selma on Sunday, Harris called on Israel to “do more to significantly increase the flow of aid.”

“No excuses,” she said. “They must open new border crossings. They must not impose any unnecessary restrictions on the delivery of aid.”

Harris previously met Gantz at the Munich Security Conference in 2022.

 

 

Who will be next President of United States?

The statement of US President Joe Biden that it remains to be seen if he’ll run for reelection has prompted more Democratic chatter about whether they’ll have a different candidate for the White House in 2024. 

If Biden doesn’t run again, a number of Democrats are expected to wade into the presidential waters. Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t seen as a definitive leading contender in such a situation, Democrats acknowledge privately.  

“There’s not one clear candidate and there’s not a rising star,” said one top Democratic donor.  

Here’s who is generating the most talk and the most confidence.  

Kamala Harris 

While Harris, 57, has seen her own approval ratings fall at times during an up-and-down tenure as vice president, she remains the top non-Biden possibility for 2024.  

Strategists say it would be difficult to convince Black women — who helped catapult Biden to the White House — to vote for anyone else as the party’s standard-bearer.   

And as one strategist pointed out, “No one is going to win the nomination without winning in the South.” 

While Harris had a rocky start during the first year of the administration, generating headlines for both gaffes and a string of staff departures, she has settled into the role.  

She has also made women’s rights one of her issues out on the trail, an issue that can only help her political prospects with the Democratic base as the Supreme Court decision overturning the Roe v. Wade ruling on abortion rights continues to reverberate. 

Pete Buttigieg 

The Transportation Secretary has been a popular figure in the Democratic Party since his 2020 presidential run, when he surprised the base with his come-out-of-nowhere ascent.  

Buttigieg’s current role has sent him around the country to boast about popular infrastructure projects —something that can only help him down the road.  

Just last month, Buttigieg, 40, appeared in the swing states of Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada and Ohio.  Buttigieg’s stature with voters could have taken a beating with the railway strike earlier this month but after Biden’s late-hour intervention, it never amounted, solidifying his standing with Democratic voters. 

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer 

The two Biden administration fixtures are the top two non-Biden Democrats on our list. The most likely alternatives after them are two governors. The first is Michigan’s governor, who came closer than many realize to being Biden’s pick for vice president.  

Now Whitmer, 51, is catching the eyes of Democrats as she runs for reelection.  

This week, she opened up a 16-point lead over her Republican opponent Tudor Dixon in a Detroit Free Press poll.  

Whitmer has made it a point to lean in on abortion rights, in particular. At a recent event she highlighted her role in the fight.  

“The only reason Michigan continues to be pro-choice state is because of my veto and my lawsuit,” she said, according to CNN. The remarks refer to a lawsuit Whitmer filed to prevent a Michigan abortion ban from happening.  

She often points out she filed the lawsuit even before Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court in June, a move that will surely appeal to the base in the coming years.  

Gov. Gavin Newsom  

At a time when Democrats have been craving a leader who would get in the faces of Republicans, Newsom, the California governor, appeared to do battle.  

Newsom, 54, made headlines in July when he took the fight directly to Ron DeSantis (R), running an ad in the Sunshine State blasting the Florida governor and the conservative culture there.  

“Freedom, it’s under attack in your state. Republican leaders, they’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors,” he said in the spot, which ran on Fox News programming throughout the state.  

Earlier this month, he continued his aggressive stance by paying for billboards in some conservative states including Mississippi, Texas, Indiana and Oklahoma. His message, Abortion is still legal in California. 

“He has still got a lot to prove but he has certainly made Democrats pay attention,” one strategist said.  

Sen. Elizabeth Warren

The one-time presidential hopeful has made it clear she has one race on her mind in 2024: her own reelection to the Senate.  

But Democrats say there would be a place for her if Biden decides not to run again.  

Warren, 73, has continued to be a top advocate on Capitol Hill for issues important to Democrats including climate change, abortion rights and gun safety.  

But when she’s asked about the next presidential election, she consistently punts.  

“We’ve got to stop the catnip about 2024,” she told Axios this summer. “If we start getting tangled up on 2024, and fail to pay attention to business in 2022, that is not only going to hurt us in 2022. It is going to bite us on the rear end in 2024.”  

Sen. Bernie Sanders

It’s tough for some Democrats to see the senator from Vermont launching another presidential campaign.

After all, he is 81 years old and — if elected — would be nearing 90 by the end of his term.  

But Sanders has become such a staple of the Democratic Party since his first White House bid in 2016 that it’s hard to rule out a run. And if he did compete, he’d definitely have support. 

Whenever there’s a debate that matters to the base — on student loans or climate change — he’s at the heart of it, one strategist pointed out.  

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Almost no one in the Democratic Party has had the meteoric rise of “AOC,” as she’s known.  

And while most strategists doubt that the congresswoman from New York will run for president just yet, her name is constantly bandied about when Democrats complain that their bench is weak.  

The number one question strategists ask when they talk about her is whether she’ll even be of age to run for the highest office in the land. The answer is just barely: she turns 35 a month before the 2024 election.  

Besides her age, another question that would undoubtedly come up is whether Ocasio-Cortez’s politics are too liberal to win a Democratic primary or general election.  

 

United States makes attempt to mend relations with United Arab Emirates

US President Joe Biden seems to have initiated efforts to mend its relationship with Abu Dhabi. Lately, some cabinet members led by Vice President visited to the United Arab Emirates, an oil-rich nation in the midst of a critical leadership change.

Rejection and perceived disinterest from Washington has led the UAE to recently act more boldly on the global stage. It abstained from a US-led resolution at the United Nations that condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Emirati officials have also refused to increase oil production in an effort to lower gas prices and continue to pursue closer ties with China.  

Following the death of Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the country’s second president, who had officially ruled since 2004, Biden this week dispatched his most senior cabinet officials led by Vice President Kamala Harris. She was joined by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and CIA Director William Burns.

The visit by the Biden administration’s top brass was one to express condolences — and congratulations — to the new leader, Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan. Known as MBZ, he is the late president’s half-brother.

Harris, in remarks after a meeting said the purpose of the trip was to reaffirm the shared commitment we have to security and prosperity in this region and also how the American people have benefited from this relationship in terms of security and prosperity.” She called the UAE a friend and partner.

The trip came as US officials attempted to woo the monarchy amid a long list of strains between Abu Dhabi and Washington. Another issue is that of a longtime American foe Iran, as the UAE has rejected the Biden administration’s pursuit of a nuclear deal with Tehran. The tensions stand in stark contrast to the close ties the UAE held with the former administration.

Abu Dhabi welcomed then-President Trump’s exit from the Iran nuclear deal. Most notably, the Gulf state benefited from normalizing relations with Israel through American proposed military sales and Washington pulling its support from Israeli plans to annex the West Bank. 

“MBZ, because he sees himself as a man of vision, and Abu Dhabi of being a significant and important country, he expects respect and certainly under Biden, doesn’t think he’s been treated with respect,” said Simon Henderson, Director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute.

“Trump and Jared Kushner the president’s son-in-law and senior advisor sort of treated him with respect.”

Experts said that the trip by Biden officials signals the administration knows it has some work to do.

“I think the high level delegation signals that Washington would like to repair the relationship and it’s really important that they do that,” said Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

Mohammed, 61, has been considered the de-facto ruler of the Emirates for nearly 10 years, since then-President Khalifa suffered a stroke in 2014 and was largely sidelined from power up until his death. 

Mohammed has held tremendous sway throughout the region during his time as crown prince of Abu Dhabi and is described by regional watchers as having a vision, focused on growing the Emirates wealth, making its economy an important global player and pushing back against what it views as the threat of political Islam, in particular in neighboring Iran and Qatar.

Gerald Feierstein, former ambassador to Yemen and a distinguished senior fellow on US diplomacy at Middle East Institute, said Mohammed’s influence on the Trump administration’s Abraham Accords — the normalization agreements between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain — signaled the crown prince’s desire to be a driver of events of the region more broadly, than just the Gulf.  

The UAE has also garnered greater independence from the US

“For the Emirates, they consider the US a less reliable security and regional partner than it has been considered in the past and so they’re willing to craft their own independent foreign policy,” said Courtney Freer, nonresident fellow with the Brookings Institution.

Abu Dhabi took issue early on in the Biden administration with what it viewed as a weak response to threats and attacks the Emirates faced from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, including Biden removing the Houthi terrorist designation.

Ibish, of the Arab Gulf States Institute, said the robust US response to support Ukraine following Russia’s invasion underscored the feeling that Washington was abandoning its security commitments in the Middle East.  

“They look at the firm and united and resolute response to the invasion of Ukraine and compare it to those missile attacks by the Houthis and they feel very second best and not particularly looked after,” he said.

That has left leaders in the Emirates looking for help elsewhere.

“Whatever Washington wants, MBZ will make his own deal with Iran because they’re neighbors across the waters of the Gulf. And Dubai in particular, has important contacts with Iran at least on a commercial level,” Henderson said. 

Also at issue are negotiations that were reportedly rejected by the UAE to buy 50 F-35 fighter jets from the US amid defense security conditions for the acquisition, a UAE official told Reuters in December. 

A State Department spokesperson, requesting anonymity, told The Hill. “The administration remains committed to the sales and are continuing consultations with the UAE to ensure that we have a clear, mutual understanding with respect to Emirati obligations and actions before, during, and after delivery.” 

Before the Biden administration visit this week, the US had already started to take steps toward repairing the diplomatic relationship, Ibish noted, in the form of an apology by Blinken to MBZ last month for the Biden administration’s delay in responding to Houthi attacks in Abu Dhabi this year.

“It’s the apology that goes a long way because the response really did seem insufficient and particularly in the light of the Ukraine invasion, where the difference of the Western response is very stark,” Ibish added.

Feierstein added that the Blinken-MBZ meeting in Morocco was a step in the right direction that cleared away a lot of the underbrush in the relationship.

“No two states ever see anything eye to eye, there are always differences in opinion and of position. But what you do want is a strong institutional link that allows you to work through those issues,” he added.

 

Joe Biden is here to stay

Joe Biden, President of United States is sticking with his White House team despite lagging poll numbers that have contributed to rising Democratic worries about the party's prospects in next year’s midterm elections.  

Biden’s core team has remained largely intact, and there are few signs of a looming shake-up. The White House and its allies have also signaled they see little reason to make changes.

“I don’t think the problem is staffing,” said Jim Kessler, Executive Vice President for Policy at Democratic think tank Third Way.

“I don’t think there’s any need to make staffing changes,” added Basil Smikle, a Democratic strategist and Director of Hunter College’s Public Policy Program.

The end of Biden’s first year in office has been difficult, with the key item in his legislative agenda stuck in the Senate largely because of an impasse with Sen. Joe Manchin.

The White House is also dealing with a nagging pandemic as COVID-19 case rise and the omicron variant threatens to create a new wave of the virus in the United States. The pandemic has also fed Biden’s economic problems, from inflation to supply chain crisis that has frustrated businesses and consumers.

These are all real challenges but are not symptoms of a staffing problem. They pointed instead to the deep polarization in Congress and a pessimistic electorate that is tired of the pandemic and related economic issues.

Smikle said the 50-50 Senate equally divided between Democrats and Republicans is the reason for Biden’s difficulties legislatively and that staffing would not make much of a difference.

“The challenges with the legislation are less about his own administration and more about the political landscape in the Senate and the small majority there as well as the broader polarization within Congress,” he said.

Kessler said that while the White House is hearing a lot of criticism on its messaging, Biden’s problems aren’t that unusual.

“Democrats have historically had a hard time crowing about good economic news when they’re in charge because there is a belief that if people think the economy is good then they don’t need democratic programs,” he said.

“Meanwhile, Republicans are saying the economy is bad because they want to take power. Democrats need to take a page from Ronald Reagan and be talking about the positives in this economy.”

Sources pointed to Biden’s history as a loyal boss who enjoys a tight-knit inner circle of aides he has known for years, including White House chief of staff Ron Klain, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and senior advisers Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon.

Asked about Biden’s legislative team, Sen. Chris Coons, a Biden ally, said they “do a great job.” “I like them personally, I respect them professionally and I think they’re doing a really good job of managing some really tough dynamics,” Coons said. “Our Framers intended the executive and legislative branches to have different priorities and to have a contest of ideas. There are 635 of us over here. It’s not easy. Given that, they do about as good a job as they could.” 

Former President Trump presided over unprecedented turnover among White House staff and across his administration. He was prone to firing and replacing high-level officials, cycling through multiple chiefs of staff, press secretaries and national security advisers in his first year, which led to further dysfunction. 

Vice President Harris’s office has also seen staff churn during her first year, which has contributed to a perception of dysfunction within her operation.

Roberta Jacobson, who was tapped to oversee issues surrounding the US-Mexico border, left in April after a brief stint in what she said was a planned departure. Tyler Moran, a senior adviser on migration, is set to leave in January after spending roughly six months in the administration.

Andy Slavitt departed the White House coronavirus response team in June as previously planned, and Anita Dunn, who held a senior role in the communications team, also made a planned exit over the summer.

Biden’s first Staff Secretary left in October and the Director of the Presidential Personnel Office left last week for the top job at UNICEF. A handful of lower-level communications aides have also departed. None of the departures so far have been attributed to a deliberate effort by Biden to shake up his staff. 

There are Democrats who look at the poll numbers and privately question why Biden hasn’t taken a closer look at replacing some aides around him. 

"Voters have had enough and the Biden team keeps doubling down," said one Democratic strategist, pointing to the President's low approval ratings. "Begs the question, when does Biden stop listening to a team that has tanked his presidency in less than 12 months?"

A strategist said the New Year would be an ideal time for a transition.  “As they approach year two of the presidency, it might be a good time to change things up and bring in fresh perspectives in order to help with some of the unplanned challenges that have come up in the last part of the year,” the strategist said. “Phase two happens in every administration, and it's a way they could pivot from the past few months."

Others dismissed such suggestions. One person familiar with Biden World’s thinking said it was best to “do the opposite” of what anonymous strategists were suggesting. 

“Biden has surrounded himself with people he’s worked with for decades,” said Chris Whipple, author of “The Gatekeepers,” a book about White House chiefs of staff. “That lends real stability when you’ve got people like that.”

The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan prompted questions about whether Biden would fire one of his advisers, and there were rumblings that National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was on rocky footing. But Biden ultimately did not make changes, a signal that the withdrawal was his decision and he would own it.

“I’d say it’s remarkable that in the wake of Afghanistan there were no changes at all,” said Bill Galston, Chairman of the Brookings Institution’s Government Studies Program. “That may reflect the fact that almost everything that happened was driven from the president down and not the staff up.” “What’s he going to do, fire himself?” he added.

Still, some departures could be on the horizon. White House press secretary Jen Psaki has said she expects to leave her post next year, though she hasn’t laid out a timeline. 

Others may serve out their positions until at least the midterm elections. 

“You try to get the administration through the midterms, make sure their agenda, which in the first two years would be the most ambitious, you try to get that pushed through, especially when you have the House and the Senate as allies,” Smikle said.