The 45th president’s political career seemed to be over
after he sought to overturn his 2020 election defeat and spurred his supporters
to march on the Capitol, an event that led to a riot and the evacuation of Congress.
Trump
became the first president ever to be twice impeached; was charged in four
separate criminal cases; was found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case; and
was convicted in criminal court of 34 felony counts of falsifying business
records.
But Trump was buoyed by a fervently loyal support base —
most of whom believe his narrative that he has been unfairly victimized by a
corrupt political, legal and media establishment.
“We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible,” Trump
told supporters during his West Palm Beach, Fla., victory speech in the early
hours Wednesday, calling his win “a magnificent victory for the American
people.”
He also gained from public dissatisfaction with President
Biden’s record.
It all
went wrong from early on for Harris
The writing was on the wall from early in the evening for
Harris.The first warning sign was a very early call that Trump would win
Florida. The result itself was no shock — but the fact Trump was winning by
roughly double the 6-point edge that polling averages had predicted was ominous
for the Democratic nominee.
The pro-Trump pattern continued for much of the night, with
supposedly safe Democratic states such as Virginia and even New Jersey hanging
undecided for uncomfortably long stretches for Team Harris, while Trump jumped
into early leads in every swing state.
Harris left her event at Washington’s historic Howard
University without speaking publicly. She was expected to speak later
Wednesday.
Latino
men swing heavily to Trump
Much media coverage in advance of Election Day had focused
on whether Trump would make inroads with Black voters, especially Black men, or
with younger voters.
In fact, changes within those demographic groups were modest
— at least according to the current exit polls, which may still shift somewhat
as fresh data is added.
But there was one real shock. Latino men shifted toward
Trump by a breathtaking margin, according to the CNN exit polls.
In 2020, those exit polls showed Latino men voting
for Biden over Trump by a 23-point margin, 59 percent to 36 percent.
The current iteration of Tuesday’s CNN exit poll showed
them voting for Trump over Harris by a 10-point margin, 54 percent to 44
percent.
The astonishing 33-point swing is going to lead to a lot of
searching and uncomfortable questions among Democrats.
Trump supporters will contend that his cultural conservatism
and promise of a better economy helped turn the tide.
But that explanation doesn’t really make sense of why Latina
women shifted only very slightly in their partisan support.
It’s tough to find a plausible argument that doesn’t include
some level of sexism.
Harris, of course, now becomes the second female Democratic
nominee to lose to Trump, after Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The
abortion issue failed to make the difference
A lot of Democratic hopes were riding on the idea that women
would come out in unprecedented numbers to elect the nation’s first female
president, just two years after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. It
didn’t happen.
There was a wide gender gap, to be sure — but the exit polls
so far don’t indicate it was bigger in a meaningful way than four years ago.
On the contrary, women went for Biden over Trump by 15
points in 2020, according to the CNN exit polls. So far this year, the exit
polls show Harris carrying female voters by just 10 points.
That doesn’t mean abortion has been transformed into a
winning issue for Republicans — it hasn’t.
For example, a ballot initiative on abortion in Florida
didn’t get the 60 percent supermajority it needed to pass. But a clear
majority, about 57 percent, lined up on the liberal side of the question.
Still, the bottom line is that the abortion issue didn’t
prove nearly as potent as Harris needed it to be.
There
will be serious Democratic infighting
The result is a cataclysm for Democrats. Their nominee has
lost to a man whom many in their party consider an active danger to American
democracy. So, the finger-pointing will immediately begin.
Many Democrats will dwell on the sequence of events that led
to Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July. That came after a debate debacle
in late June.
The number of people who believe the president would have
done better than Harris is vanishingly small. But his decision not to step
aside after one term — and the party’s lack of appetite for a competitive
primary against him — will be second-guessed by those who feel such a process
would either have strengthened Harris or produced a better nominee.
The
messaging of the Harris campaign will also be subject to harsh scrutiny.
Did she spend too much time arguing Trump was a “fascist” in
a way that was merely preaching to the choir?
Was the attempt to win over disaffected Republican voters by
campaigning with conservative figures such as former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.)
always doomed to fail?
Would a more vigorous concentration on working-class
concerns have helped stanch Trump’s appeal, or would a more adventurous media
strategy have paid dividends?
At some level, it’s possible these questions are unfair.
Maybe the headwinds Harris faced on the economy — and as the deputy of a
president with mediocre poll ratings — were just too stiff to overcome.
But that won’t stop those questions from being asked.
Trump
might well have unified GOP government
Trump will have a Republican majority in the Senate — and
quite possibly in the House as well.
Democrats were always going to have a hard time in the upper
chamber, where they were on the defensive in several red-leaning states.
Deeply red West Virginia was always a near-certain loss once
Democratic-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin announced he would retire.
Republican Gov. Jim Justice was duly elected there.
Elsewhere, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) lost his seat to GOP
challenger Bernie Moreno. Incumbent Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin
(D-Wis.) are in trouble too, though they could yet rally and prevail.
In the House, the picture remained unclear in Wednesday’s
early hours, and may take several days to be settled. But it is certainly
possible that the Republicans could retain a narrow majority.
If that comes to pass, it would complete a remarkable sweep
by the GOP.
Courtesy: The Hill
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