Reemergence of ISIS in Oman

According to Reuters, Islamic State has claimed responsibility for an attack on a Shi'ite mosque in Oman. The reemergence of ISIS in Oman, attack on Shi'ite mosque and killing of large number of Pakistanis is a cause of grave concern. We refer to one of our blogs dated November 28, 2015 where effort was made to answer a key question, who is godfathering this most brutal group of killers? Even at that time we strongly believed that ISIS would have not become a phantom unless some of the countries were not supplying funds, trained mercenaries and above all the most lethal arms.

The terrorist threat can only be fought jointly and arriving at few consensuses is a must. These are: 1) the US must accept its defeat in Syria, it has destroyed the country but could not overthrow Assad, 2) the US must also stop supplying funds and arms to the ISIS, 3) the US and its allies must also stop buying stolen oil from ISIS. If all these measures are not taken immediately than the world will be right in assuming that ISIS is ‘B’ team of CIA and pentagon.

The immediate reply was provided by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who said that the US actions in the Middle East helped ISIS becoming the monster.

He also said that ISIS attained the present size due to irresponsible US politics that focused on fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad instead of joining efforts to root out terrorism.

Lately, President Barack Obama said that Russia has to make a strategic choice as Assad can’t stay in power. This statement is a challenge to Russia who openly defies any and every attempt to depose Assad.

No one has a doubt that the US is godfathering ISIS; it has earlier godfathered al-Qaeda, which led to the armed assault against Afghanistan and Iraq. Ironically both the countries were not involved in 9/11 attacks in any manner what so ever.

Medvedev and Obama met in the Malaysian capital at the East Asia Summit that followed a week of talks and conferences in Asia dominated by the battle against terrorism. The UN unanimously endorsed a resolution calling the member countries to take all necessary measures to combat ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

Obama said the US and its allies must go ahead with their battle against ISIS in Syria and Iraq with or without Russia’s cooperation.

Obama made two policy statements: 1) Russia has not officially committed to a transition of Assad moving out but they did agree to a political transition process and 2) we’ll find out over the next several weeks whether or not we can bring about that change in perspective with the Russians.

Medvedev has rightly said that global cooperation in fighting terrorism can only be successful if all actions are coordinated and sponsored by international institutions like the UN. He said this after a meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon in Kuala Lumpur.

Ban urged Russia and the US to cooperate in fighting terrorism, adding he would unveil a plan early next year. However, Obama categorically said that the US and its allies will press ahead with their battle against ISIS with or without Russia’s cooperation.

 

 

 

 

JD Vance: Trump’s Running Mate

Former President Donald Trump on Monday chose Sen. JD Vance as his running mate despite the Ohio Republican formerly describing himself as a "Never Trump guy" and calling the presumptive GOP nominee an "idiot," an "asshole," and "America's Hitler."

Trump—who survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania campaign rally on Saturday—announced his pick on the opening day of the Republican Party's convention in Wisconsin with a post on his Truth social media platform, calling Vance "the person best suited" to be vice president.

"JD honorably served our country in the Marine Corps, graduated from Ohio State University in two years, summa cum laude, and is a Yale Law School graduate, where he was the editor of the Yale Law Journal, and president of the Yale Law Veterans Association," Trump wrote. "JD's book, Hillbilly Elegy, became a major bestseller and movie, as it championed the hardworking men and women of our country."

Vance's selection came two days after the senator took to social media to assert that President Joe Biden's rhetoric—including the assertion that Trump "is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs"—led "directly" to Trump's attempted assassination.

Should he accept his selection, Vance—who turns 40 next month—would be making a stark departure from his previous views on Trump.

"I'm a Never Trump guy," Vance said in a 2016 interview with the late Charlie Rose. "I never liked him."

"My God what an idiot," he said of Trump on social media that same year.

In another message explaining his views on the rise of Trump, Vance wrote that the Republican Party "has itself to blame."

"Trump is the fruit of the party's collective neglect" of working-class Americans, Vance argued. "I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole" like former President Richard Nixon "who wouldn't be that bad... or that he's America's Hitler."

Vance, who claims to be a champion of working people and against elites, is a former venture capitalist whose 2022 Senate campaign was backed by billionaires and who has ties to Big Pharma. He opposes reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights.

He has complained about high gas prices while raking in Big Oil campaign contributions. He says that Project 2025 —a conservative coalition's agenda for a far-right takeover of the federal government—has some "good ideas" in it.

He has fundraised for January 6 insurrectionists. He blamed the Robb Elementary School massacre in Uvalde, Texas on "fatherlessness." He wants to ban pornography.

"As Trump's running mate, Vance will make it his mission to enact Trump's Project 2025 agenda at the expense of American families," Jen O'Malley Dillion, chair of the Biden-Harris reelection campaign, said in response to Trump's pick. "This is someone who supports banning abortion nationwide while criticizing exceptions for rape and incest survivors; railed against the Affordable Care Act, including its protections for millions with preexisting conditions; and has admitted he wouldn't have certified the free and fair election in 2020."

"Billionaires and corporations are literally rooting for JD Vance: They know he and Trump will cut their taxes and send prices skyrocketing for everyone else," she added.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) responded to Vance's selection in a statement asserting that "this is the most consequential election of our lifetimes, and with Donald Trump's decision today to add JD Vance to the Republican ticket, the stakes of this election just got even higher."

"JD Vance embodies MAGA—with an out-of-touch extreme agenda and plans to help Trump force his Project 2025 agenda on the American people," the DNC continued.

"Vance has championed and enabled Trump's worst policies for years—from a national abortion ban, to whitewashing January 6, to railing against Social Security and Medicare."

"Let's be clear. A Trump-Vance ticket would undermine our democracy, our freedoms, and our future," the DNC added.

Biden's candidacy faces new perils

President Joe Biden’s imperiled reelection campaign hit new trouble Wednesday as House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi said merely “it’s up to the president to decide” if he should stay in the race, celebrity donor George Clooney said he should not run and Democratic senators and lawmakers expressed fresh fear about his ability to beat Republican Donald Trump.

Late in the evening, Vermont Sen. Peter Welch called on Biden to withdraw from the election, becoming the first Senate Democrat to do so. Welch said he is worried because “the stakes could not be higher.”

The sudden flurry of grave pronouncements despite Biden’s determined insistence he is not leaving the 2024 race put on public display just how unsettled the question remains among prominent Democrats.

On Capitol Hill, an eighth House Democrat, Rep. Pat Ryan of New York, and later a ninth, Rep. Earl Blumenauer of Oregon, publicly asked Biden to step aside.

“I want him to do whatever he decides to do,” Pelosi said Wednesday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” rather than declaring Biden should stay in. While Biden has said repeatedly that he’s made his decision, she said, “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short.”

It’s a crucial moment for the president and his party, as Democrats consider what was once unthinkable — having the incumbent Biden step aside, just weeks before the Democratic National Convention that is on track to nominate him as their candidate for reelection.

Biden is hosting world leaders in Washington for the NATO summit this week with a crowded schedule of formal meetings, sideline chats and long diplomatic dinners, all opportunities to showcase he is up for the job despite a worrisome performance last month in the first presidential debate with Trump.

His party at a crossroads, Biden faces the next tests Thursday — in public, at a scheduled news conference that many Democrats will be watching for signs of his abilities, and privately, as his top advisers meet with the Senate Democratic caucus to discuss their concerns and shore up support.

Welch said in a Washington Post opinion piece published Wednesday evening, “We cannot unsee President Biden’s disastrous debate performance.”

The first-term senator said Vermont loves Biden and he was calling on the president to withdraw from the race “with sadness.”

To be sure, Biden maintains strong support from key corners of his coalition, particularly some in the Congressional Black Caucus on Capitol Hill, whose leadership was instrumental in ushering the president to victory in 2020 and is standing by him as the country’s best choice to defeat Trump again in 2024.

“At this moment, the stakes are too high and we have to focus,” Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota told The Associated Press earlier in the week, saying Democrats are “losing ground” the longer they fight over Biden’s candidacy. “Democracy is on the line. Everything we value as Democrats, as a country, is on the line, and we have to stop being distracted.”

Pelosi has been widely watched for signals of how top Democrats are thinking about Biden’s wounded candidacy, her comments viewed as important for the party’s direction as members weigh possible alternatives in the campaign against Trump.

Because of her powerful position as the former House speaker and proximity to Biden as a trusted longtime ally of his generation, Pelosi is seen as one of the few Democratic leaders who could influence the president’s thinking.

The lack of a full statement from Pelosi backing Biden’s continued campaign is what lawmakers are likely to hear most clearly, even as she told ABC later she believes he can win.

Her remarks came as actor Clooney, who had just hosted a glitzy Hollywood fundraiser for the president last month, said in a New York Times op-ed that the Biden he saw three weeks ago wasn’t the Joe Biden of 2020. “He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”

Democrats have been reeling over whether to continue backing Biden after his poor showing in the June 27 debate and his campaign’s lackluster response to their pleas that Biden, at 81, show voters he is ready for another four-year term.

Sen. Michael Bennet, a Democrat from Colorado, spoke forcefully late Tuesday about the danger of a second Trump presidency and said it’s for the president “to consider” the options.

Stopping just short of calling for Biden to drop out, Bennet said on CNN what he told his colleagues in private — that he believes Trump “is on track to win this election — and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House.”

Bennet said, “It’s not a question about politics. It’s a moral question about the future of our country.”

By Wednesday, Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut said he was “deeply concerned” about Biden winning the election, which he called existential for the country.

“We have to reach a conclusion as soon as possible,” Blumenthal said on CNN.

Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia told reporters, “I have complete confidence that Joe Biden will do the patriotic thing for the country. And he’s going to make that decision.”

Biden and his campaign are working more intently now to shore up support, and the president met with labor leaders Wednesday, relying on the unions to help make the case that his record in office matters more than his age.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer invited Biden’s campaign to address senators’ concerns, and redoubled his backing of the president. “As I have made clear repeatedly publicly and privately, I support President Biden and remain committed to ensuring Donald Trump is defeated in November,” he said.

The president’s team is sending senior Biden advisers Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti, and Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon to meet with Democratic senators privately Thursday for a caucus lunch, according to both a Senate leadership aide and the Biden campaign.

There were some concerns, however, that it could backfire. One Democratic senator who requested anonymity to speak about the closed-door meeting said it could be a waste of time if Biden would not make the case to senators himself.

Pelosi said Biden “has been a great president” who is beloved and respected by House Democrats. The Californian said she watched as he delivered a forceful speech at the NATO summit Tuesday, and she recounted his many accomplishments.

While foreign leaders are in Washington this week and Biden is on the world stage hosting the event at a critical time in foreign affairs, Pelosi encouraged Democrats to “let’s just hold off” with any announcements about his campaign.

“Whatever you’re thinking, either tell somebody privately but you don’t have to put that out on the table until we see,” she said, how it goes “this week.”

 Courtesy: The Associated Press

Who could replace Joe Biden?

Replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would be highly complicated, and likely impossible, unless the president voluntarily decides to back out, on his own.

Politically and mechanically, it is nearly impossible to believe that Democrats would or could forcibly prevent Biden from becoming the nominee.

Right now, Biden is the only candidate for whom those attending the Democratic convention can even vote.

He received 99% of his party’s delegates in the primaries, and Democratic delegates have pledged to back whoever won their state’s contest in the first round of voting.

Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules require delegates that Biden won to pledge their support for his nomination unless Biden were to willingly decide to step down and free his delegates for another candidate. 

Before the convention opens on August 19, the DNC could change the rules to block Biden, but that would require a level of political support hard to imagine. A battle between pro- and anti-Biden factions at a convention to unseat him is highly unlikely to happen.

But the possibility is conceivable that party leaders, including former Presidents Obama and Clinton, might be convinced to talk to Biden about dropping out, Democratic sources told The Hill.

Biden ultimately puts the most value on advice from first lady Jill Biden and his sister, Valerie, two people who are largely considered the only voices who could truly change his mind.

A situation unique to 2024 may give party leaders even less time to sort out who will be the nominee than they normally would have. Ohio state law requires its ballot to be certified 90 days prior to the election. This year that falls on August 07, almost two weeks before the convention starts.

Despite Ohio state lawmakers trying to pass a bill to fix the issue, they deadlocked, leading DNC leaders to decide to virtually nominate Biden in advance of the deadline and the convention. If they plan to follow through on this, any change in the nominee would need to happen before Ohio’s deadline if the candidate is to be on the ballot in the state, notwithstanding a fix from Ohio lawmakers.

On Friday, party leaders were coalescing around Biden and not giving any signal that they might privately push for him to drop out.

His campaign, the White House and surrogates have pushed back forcefully on the idea, but others said if polls show his performance is hurting down-ballot candidates, it could become a real subject.

The natural successor to Biden would be Vice President Harris. But she wouldn’t be the automatic replacement, if Biden were to drop out.

While Biden won the primaries, his support won through those contests cannot be bestowed by Biden on Harris.

Harris would instead, at the convention or sooner, compete with other potential candidates who might see themselves as stronger candidates than the vice president against presumptive GOP nominee, former President Trump.

According to its bylaws, the DNC has general responsibility for the affairs of the party between national conventions, and those responsibilities include filling vacancies in the nominations for the office of the president and vice president.

If Biden exited, there would be a vacancy, and Harris would be the logical successor.

Politically, some said it was hard to believe, at this stage, that someone could replace Harris if Biden wanted her to be his replacement on a ticket. But there would almost certainly be prospective politicians, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who might try.

“This is the bigger pickle to replacing Biden. I don’t see the Democratic coalition surviving intact if Harris is not on the top of the ticket, and it’s hard to assure that would be the party consensus if they replace Biden,” a former DNC official said.

If there were more than one Democratic candidate vying to replace a withdrawn Biden as the party’s nominee, those prospective candidates would likely need to fight it out with state delegations at the August convention in Chicago.

This would set up a scenario that hasn’t been seen in American politics in decades: A contested convention that actually selects the party’s nominee.

Conservative groups have suggested they will file lawsuits around the country, potentially questioning the legality of the Democratic candidate’s name on the ballot, in such a situation.

But in an interview with the Associated Press, Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, noted the courts have consistently stayed out of political primaries as long as parties running them weren’t doing anything that would contradict other constitutional rights, such as voter suppression based on race.

 

Speculation about Trump’s running mate

Former President Donald Trump told reporters Saturday he’s made up his mind about who will be his running mate in November, but he has yet to tell anyone who it is.

Trump told NBC News ahead of a rally in Philadelphia that he’s settled on a vice presidential choice.

“In my mind, yeah,” Trump said when asked if he’s decided.

Asked if his pick knows it’s them, Trump responded, “No, nobody knows.”

The selection process for Trump’s running mate has ramped up in recent weeks as several candidates received vetting materials from the campaign. Trump has said he may announce his choice at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next month.

Sources familiar with the process told The Hill the front-runners for the position are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Sen. J.D. Vance and Sen. Marco Rubio.

Others who received vetting materials and are under consideration include Sen. Tim Scott, Sen. Tom Cotton, Rep. Elise Stefanik, Rep. Byron Donalds  and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson.

Trump has praised each of those individuals at various times, though he has downplayed the impact his selection might have on the end result in November.

“It’s never really had that much of an effect on an election,” Trump told Fox News earlier this year.

 

Can Biden win hearts of Arab Americans?

US President Biden sought to lean into his strengths during a Thursday trip to Michigan, even as the discontent among the state’s large Arab American population over his handling of the situation in Gaza loomed over the visit.

The tensions Biden is facing with Arab American voters in Michigan lurked just on the periphery of his visit.

Biden’s itinerary did not take him into Dearborn, where Arab Americans make up a majority of the population, nor did it include any meetings with Arab American leaders.

Rashida Tlaib, one of the most outspoken critics of the war in Gaza and who represents a nearby district, did not accompany Biden on the trip.

Community members gathered Wednesday night in nearby Dearborn to protest Biden’s visit. They congregated near the union hall in Warren waving Palestinian flags and carrying signs that read “Abandon Biden”.

The publicly available White House schedule for Thursday’s trip was vague. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters she was not aware of any particular concerns.

“I do want to say, more broadly, that the president has met with Americans with varying opinions about the conflict between Israel and Hamas,” she said aboard Air Force One. “Officials at the White House are also in regular contact with Muslim and Arab American leaders in Michigan and across the country.”

Jean-Pierre said senior Biden administration officials will travel to Michigan in the coming days to hear directly from community leaders on a range of issues that are important to them and their families, including the conflict in Israel and Gaza.

Biden has been grappling with frustration among Arab Americans and other voters who have been outraged by his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

Biden has steadfastly supported Israel’s right to respond to the Hamas attacks and has rebuffed calls for a cease-fire, instead pushing for humanitarian pauses to allow supplies into Gaza and for the release of hostages and urging Israel to minimize the impact on civilians.

Protesters have followed Biden wherever he has traveled, disrupting unrelated events to call for a cease-fire and condemn his handling of the situation in Gaza.

Biden’s support among Arab American voters plunged to just 17 percent in October, just after the war started, with 25 percent in a poll conducted by the Arab American Institute saying they weren’t sure who they would vote for if the election were held then.

Michigan is a crucial swing state, one Biden carried in 2020 by 154,000 votes against Trump. But recent polling out of the state has shown him trailing Trump narrowly. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday showed Trump ahead there by 5 percentage points.

 

Rising fears of war in Iraq

Reportedly, the United States has started making preparations to withdraw diplomats from Iraq after warning Baghdad it could shut its embassy. Any move by the US to scale down its diplomatic presence is being seen as an escalation of its confrontation with Iran.

“The American threat to close their embassy is merely a pressure tactic, but is a double-edged sword,” said Gati Rikabi, a member of Iraq’s parliamentary security committee. He said US moves were designed to scare Iraqi leaders into supporting Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

However, there are growing concern among Iraqis is that pulling out diplomats could be followed by military action against forces Washington blamed for attacks and turn their country into a battle zone.

Many fear the possibility of military action, with just weeks to go before an election in which US President Donald Trump has campaigned on a hard line towards Tehran and its proxies.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has threatened to close the embassy in a phone call a week ago to President Barham Salih.

Populist Iraqi leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who commands a following of millions of Iraqis, issued a statement last week pleading for groups to avoid an escalation that could turn Iraq into a battleground.

One of the Western diplomats said the US administration did not “want to be limited in their options” to weaken Iran or pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, Washington is expected to respond militarily.

Earlier it was said the US would reduce its presence in Iraq to 3,000 troops from 5,200. Pentagon reinforced its committed to support Iraq’s long-term “security, stability, and prosperity”.

In a region polarized between allies of Iran and the US, Iraq is the rare exception, a country that has close ties with both. But that has left it open to a perennial risk of becoming a battleground in a proxy war.

That risk became more evident after Washington killed Iran’s most important military commander, Qassem Soleimani, with a drone strike at Baghdad airport. Iran responded with missiles fired at US bases in Iraq.

Since a new prime minister has taken power in Iraq, supported by the US, Tehran is still maintaining close links with powerful Shia factions.

Rockets regularly fly across the Tigris towards the heavily fortified US diplomatic compound, constructed to be the biggest US embassy in the world in central Baghdad’s so-called “Green Zone” during the US occupation after a 2003 invasion.

Next US President: Hillary or Trump

The fast changing poll results are creating more confusion, rather than providing a credible forecast about the outcome of US presidential elections being held on 8^th November 2016. Around the world Muslims and particularly Pakistanis are anxiously awaiting the official announcement. I posted a blog on Wednesday exploring the possible implication of the outcome on Pak-US relationship. The bottom line was that whoever wins the election ‘status quo’ will remain, meaning the relationship will get good if Pakistan’s services are needed or will get bad if the US focus shifts to other regions.

Some of the readers of my blogs asked a funny question, who will win the election? I wondered if they believe I have a crystal ball or I am a fortune teller. Despite knowing my inadequacies I sat down to explore the probability. Born in a third world country, having witnessed domestic, South Asia and MENA geopolitics for nearly half a century I have also started believing in conspiracy theories. Based on my observations, I tend to say that Hillary Clinton could be the next US president. The reasons are following:

The US ruling junta has created a history by electing a black and half Muslim President. This time they will create another history by electing a woman as US president.

It is often said that in third world elections are engineered. I tend to say that the elections are also engineered in the US and the active players are part of electoral system. This time the female members of the system will play a decisive role. I say this because often the female members have not played a key role, some reports say they prefer to abstain from casting their vote.

A closer look at the outcome also indicates that the elected president should be from Republican. However, it the ruling elite are adamant at making Hillary the next president, they will not hesitate in violating this norm. If they want to continue proxy wars, maintain US hegemony in South Asia and MENA and even South China Sea they have to elect Hillary who is known as ‘queen of status quo’.