Lebanon has witnessed a number of incidents over the past weeks
that have made the headlines. Armed clashes broke out at Ain al-Hilweh, the largest
Palestinian refugee camp in Southern Lebanon, between the Fatah faction and
extremist militants, which Prime Minister Najib Mikati blamed on outside
forces and their repeated attempts to use Lebanon as a battleground for the
settling of scores.
Between July 29 and August 02, explosions and gunshots shook
the camp, resulting in at least 12 deaths, dozens of injuries, and
the displacement of around 2,000 people.
There are different narratives about how the fighting
started, but it made international headlines. It is unlike the killing of
Palestinians by Israelis in the occupied West Bank or the besieged Gaza
Strip.
At the same time, the Saudi Arabian embassy in Beirut issued
a call on its citizens to leave Lebanon and not to travel to areas where there
are armed clashes. The embassy did not specify which areas to avoid.
A statement stressed the importance of adhering to the Saudi
travel ban to Lebanon. A few other Persian Gulf states also updated their travel
advice for Lebanon.
Some analysts also went on regional media predicting things
to turn ugly in light of the Saudi warning.
However, several days have passed, and nothing has happened,
with the exception of damage incurred to the Lebanese tourism industry.
Sources have told news outlets close to Hezbollah that the
statements of the Persian Gulf embassies were merely political and related to
the presidential election.
A ceasefire is in place at the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp
and appears to be holding.
It's not the first time that fighting has erupted at the
camp or other Palestinian refugee camps in Southern Lebanon.
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
condemned the fighting during a speech delivered on the Day of Ashura, saying
it only undermines the resistance against the Israeli enemy.
During the speech, Sayyed Nasrallah also warned Israel
against its occupation of Lebanese territory along the border with the occupied
Palestinian territories.
On Tuesday, the Lebanese army organized a field tour along
the Blue Line for representatives of member states of the UN Security Council
accredited to Lebanon in the presence of local, regional, and international
media.
The tour included a presentation of the Blue Line (a border
line between Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories published by the
United Nations on June 07, 2000 for the purposes of determining whether Israel
had fully withdrawn from Lebanon) with detailed information about the points of
contention.
Upon arrival, two Israeli gunboats violated Lebanese
territorial waters in full view of the international delegation.
The delegation also moved to a Lebanese army station at Ras
al-Naqouras adjacent to an Israeli watchtower, where surveillance cameras,
jamming and listening devices, other espionage equipment as well as troops are
holed up in it.
Some army officers in the Fifth Brigade explained to the
international diplomats the extent of the Israeli violations on Lebanese
territory.
Then Brigadier General Mounir Shehadeh delivered a speech in
which he affirmed, “Lebanon has reservations about these violations, including
13 border positions still occupied by the Zionist enemy," stressing that
the border demarcation was completed in 1923 and that Lebanon will never accept
any amendments.
"These areas at the southern border have been recorded
since the adoption of the Blue Line, and therefore they are a line of
withdrawal (for Israeli occupation) and not a demarcation of the borders,"
General Shehadeh stated.
The demarcation of Lebanon’s border with Palestine took
place in 1923. It was then enshrined in an armistice agreement in 1949.
Shehadeh stressed, “Lebanon does not care about what is said about a land
demarcation, and that this word is not present in our dictionary as a Lebanese
army and as a Lebanese government. We are talking about fixing the borders and
showing the Lebanese borders, not demarcating the borders.”
"When the Blue Line was drawn up in the year 2000 by
the United Nations, it came in more than one place that does not coincide with
international borders, and we called it a line of withdrawal, not a border
line, and therefore we seek that the Blue Line becomes identical with what is
identified in internationally."
He concluded by stressing, "We will preserve Lebanon's
right to every grain of soil from its land, and this is what we are
doing."
Israel has called on Lebanon via international mediators to
remove two tents set up by Hezbollah in the Sheba'a Farm area. Beirut's
response was that the two tents are located on Lebanese territory.
Tensions have escalated further recently after Israel
re-occupied northern Ghajar village, southeast Lebanon.
Israeli media reports have said that Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu will meet his top military commanders to study the
situation.
During his Ashura speech, Nasrallah issued a warning to
Israeli political and military leaders saying, "Be careful of any
stupidity. The resistance in Lebanon will not step back from its duty. It is
ready for any option, danger, or stupidity."
He pointed out, "Israel speaks of Hezbollah threats on
the border when the regime has the nerve to occupy our territory."
In the last Israeli war against Lebanon in July 2006, the
regime acknowledged its defeat, as it was taken aback by the strength of
Hezbollah's power.
According to experts, the Lebanese resistance has between
100,000 to 150,000 soldiers along with a wide array of powerful missiles and
other sophisticated weapons it has kept secret.
Experts believe that if Israel were to wage a war against
Lebanon today, Hezbollah is capable of capturing the entire Galilee region and
perhaps more (northern occupied Palestinian territories) within the first two
to three days of the war.
That is one-third of the entire occupied Palestinian
territories.
Many things have changed since July 2006. Not only has
Hezbollah become more powerful, but the region has changed.
There
is a possibility that any Israeli war on Lebanon would draw in Iraq’s Hashd
al-Sha'abi, Yemen's Ansarullah as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, the
Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip and the newly formed resistance in the
occupied West Bank. Syria would also find a good opportunity to liberate the
Golan Heights and attack from that direction.
Israel can assassinate resistance figures from the air. But
with the introduction of drones on the battlefield, the regime's air
superiority is no longer efficient, according to experts.
When it comes to land combat, the regime has proven its
cowardness, experts say.
Israel can launch a war against Lebanon's Hezbollah, but as
Sayyed Nasrallah noted, it would be "stupid" to do so.