Asif Ali Zardari: The Prince of Guile

Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), has secured his second term as President of Pakistan, defeating Mahmood Khan Achakzai, the candidate backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Sunni Ittehad Council.

In the presidential election, Zardari garnered an overwhelming majority, securing 411 votes, while Achakzai managed to bag 181 votes, only one vote was rejected. To know more about the charismatic as well as mysterious character of Zardari read the details published in Dawn newspaper on February 23, 2024.

Even his rivals acknowledge that Zardari is a deal-maker par excellence. He has been written off and made a comeback so many times that his doubters have simply stopped trying.

You have heard the trope: Asif Ali Zardari is Machiavelli’s Il Principe personified. While that most certainly isn’t an endearment, it is perhaps not much of an insult either. Whether one accepts it or not, Zardari seems to have cracked the code to surviving and succeeding in the swampy wastelands of Pakistani politics. There are very few who can claim to have his guile, and none who can claim his political acumen.

Call it the politics of ‘mufahimat’ (understanding and reconciliation) or the politics of ‘mufadaat’ (interests and advanta­ges), the Zardari brand of deal-making has ensured that his star continues to shine.

“Chaos isn’t a pit,” go the memorable lines from Game of Thrones, one of the most popular TV show of our times. “Chaos is a ladder. Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again. The fall breaks them.”

“And some are given a chance to climb. They refuse, they cling to the realm or the gods or love. Illusions. Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is.”

In the chaos of Pakistan’s politics, none has climbed the ladder higher or more successfully than Zardari. He has been thrown off again and again, yet refused to let his falls break him.

He has seized every opportunity to play the game, and won it with an unlikely hand too many times.

The young Zardari was a notorious playboy who often ended up in brawls at Karachi’s casinos. He was known for his then-famous father, Hakim Ali Zardari, who had been elected as an MNA on a PPP ticket to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s first assembly.

The two were said to be close at one time, but fell out at some stage, following which the elder Zardari had exited the PPP. At one time, both father and son supported the anti-Bhutto alliance.

The Zardaris were otherwise regarded as a liberal Sindhi family who ran a successful entertainment business centred around their two cinemas. The son, at one point, had also tried his hand in the construction business, but was not successful.

The family’s name shot to national prominence when, through a common family connection, the Zardari scion’s marriage was arranged with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s daughter and protégé, the late Benazir Bhutto. Benazir was well-loved and internationally known: it was natural for the spotlight to shine on her soon-to-be-husband. On the night of their wedding, the two celebrated with thousands of well-wishers, most of them common folk, at Lyari’s Kakri Ground.

The event seemed as political as it was personal, and it catapulted Zardari onto the national stage.

The very next year, in 1988, Ms Bhutto was elected Pakistan’s first woman prime minister.  Zardari landed in Prime Minister House, and quickly went to work turning around his personal fortunes. It wasn’t long before Ms Bhutto’s first government was mired in scandals of all sha­des and sizes. It was during this time that Zardari earned the title of ‘Mr 10 percent’.

The axe would fall as soon as Ms Bhutto’s government was dismissed. Among the numerous cases filed against Zardari was one involving abduction for extortion. Zardari was accused of abducting a businessman, strapping a bomb to him, and sending him to the bank to withdraw a large sum of money from his account. The case ran in an anti-terrorism court between 1990 and 1993. Nothing ever came of it.

It was during Ms Bhutto’s next government that Zardari finally started being regarded as one of the most powerful men in the country. He got his own office within PM House, and was even made a federal minister. After that government was also dismissed, he was arrested immediately. A slew of new cases were filed against him, and Zardari once again found himself in jail. Once again, he was never convicted.

Zardari’s by then lengthy record and the length of time he had spent behind bars, without ever being convicted, added to his legend. He quickly came to be regarded as a shrewd wheeler-dealer who could get out of the stickiest situations without any fatal consequences.

It was Ms Bhutto’s tragic assassination that proved to be another turning point in Zardari’s fortunes. Though he had deferred to his spouse’s politics during her lifetime, the mantle of the PPP now fell to him.

His shrewd, calculating nature came to his aid, and benefit. Having decided that General Musharraf needed to go, Zardari played a cunning hand, using the army chief at the time to get Musharraf evicted from the presidency. No one at the time realized that Zardari actually wanted the job for himself.

The presidency solidified his grip on power. Although he buried Article 58(2)(b) of the Constitution as president, the PPP government continued to be run from the President House, with key decisions always in Zardari’s hands.

Although that term led to speculation that the PPP would be wiped out from nearly everywhere except Sindh, Zardari had prepared in advance with the 18th Amendment. It allowed him to keep a foot in the corridors of power while plotting his comeback for another time.

In recent years, with rival parties much larger than his own engaged in a long-running death match, Zardari did not take his eyes off the ladder.

After the 2024 elections, he has emerged as a kingmaker yet again. He has also managed to secure the maximum concessions for his own party (and himself), while giving very little to the PML-N in return.

Even his fiercest rivals begrudgingly acknowledge that Zardari is a deal-maker par excellence. He has been written off and made a comeback so many times that his doubters have simply stopped trying.

They say that “the only thing certain in life is death and taxes”; in Pakistan, it might as well be “death, taxes, and Zardari’s political relevance”.

The man has been derided as a Machiavellian leader, a shrewd and cunning politician interested only in self-enrichment. Yet, he is also the first democratically elected president to serve out a five-year tenure, and likely to become the only person to have held that office twice.

 

 

What is behind recent turmoil in Lebanon?

Lebanon has witnessed a number of incidents over the past weeks that have made the headlines. Armed clashes broke out at Ain al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Southern Lebanon, between the Fatah faction and extremist militants, which Prime Minister Najib Mikati blamed on outside forces and their repeated attempts to use Lebanon as a battleground for the settling of scores.

Between July 29 and August 02, explosions and gunshots shook the camp, resulting in at least 12 deaths, dozens of injuries, and the displacement of around 2,000 people.

There are different narratives about how the fighting started, but it made international headlines. It is unlike the killing of Palestinians by Israelis in the occupied West Bank or the besieged Gaza Strip. 

At the same time, the Saudi Arabian embassy in Beirut issued a call on its citizens to leave Lebanon and not to travel to areas where there are armed clashes. The embassy did not specify which areas to avoid. 

A statement stressed the importance of adhering to the Saudi travel ban to Lebanon. A few other Persian Gulf states also updated their travel advice for Lebanon. 

Some analysts also went on regional media predicting things to turn ugly in light of the Saudi warning. 

However, several days have passed, and nothing has happened, with the exception of damage incurred to the Lebanese tourism industry. 

Sources have told news outlets close to Hezbollah that the statements of the Persian Gulf embassies were merely political and related to the presidential election. 

A ceasefire is in place at the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp and appears to be holding. 

It's not the first time that fighting has erupted at the camp or other Palestinian refugee camps in Southern Lebanon. 

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, condemned the fighting during a speech delivered on the Day of Ashura, saying it only undermines the resistance against the Israeli enemy. 

During the speech, Sayyed Nasrallah also warned Israel against its occupation of Lebanese territory along the border with the occupied Palestinian territories. 

On Tuesday, the Lebanese army organized a field tour along the Blue Line for representatives of member states of the UN Security Council accredited to Lebanon in the presence of local, regional, and international media.

The tour included a presentation of the Blue Line (a border line between Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories published by the United Nations on June 07, 2000 for the purposes of determining whether Israel had fully withdrawn from Lebanon) with detailed information about the points of contention. 

Upon arrival, two Israeli gunboats violated Lebanese territorial waters in full view of the international delegation.

The delegation also moved to a Lebanese army station at Ras al-Naqouras adjacent to an Israeli watchtower, where surveillance cameras, jamming and listening devices, other espionage equipment as well as troops are holed up in it.  

Some army officers in the Fifth Brigade explained to the international diplomats the extent of the Israeli violations on Lebanese territory.

Then Brigadier General Mounir Shehadeh delivered a speech in which he affirmed, “Lebanon has reservations about these violations, including 13 border positions still occupied by the Zionist enemy," stressing that the border demarcation was completed in 1923 and that Lebanon will never accept any amendments. 

"These areas at the southern border have been recorded since the adoption of the Blue Line, and therefore they are a line of withdrawal (for Israeli occupation) and not a demarcation of the borders," General Shehadeh stated.

The demarcation of Lebanon’s border with Palestine took place in 1923. It was then enshrined in an armistice agreement in 1949.
Shehadeh stressed, “Lebanon does not care about what is said about a land demarcation, and that this word is not present in our dictionary as a Lebanese army and as a Lebanese government. We are talking about fixing the borders and showing the Lebanese borders, not demarcating the borders.”  

"When the Blue Line was drawn up in the year 2000 by the United Nations, it came in more than one place that does not coincide with international borders, and we called it a line of withdrawal, not a border line, and therefore we seek that the Blue Line becomes identical with what is identified in internationally."

He concluded by stressing, "We will preserve Lebanon's right to every grain of soil from its land, and this is what we are doing."

Israel has called on Lebanon via international mediators to remove two tents set up by Hezbollah in the Sheba'a Farm area. Beirut's response was that the two tents are located on Lebanese territory.

Tensions have escalated further recently after Israel re-occupied northern Ghajar village, southeast Lebanon. 

Israeli media reports have said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet his top military commanders to study the situation. 

During his Ashura speech, Nasrallah issued a warning to Israeli political and military leaders saying, "Be careful of any stupidity. The resistance in Lebanon will not step back from its duty. It is ready for any option, danger, or stupidity."

He pointed out, "Israel speaks of Hezbollah threats on the border when the regime has the nerve to occupy our territory."

In the last Israeli war against Lebanon in July 2006, the regime acknowledged its defeat, as it was taken aback by the strength of Hezbollah's power. 

According to experts, the Lebanese resistance has between 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers along with a wide array of powerful missiles and other sophisticated weapons it has kept secret. 

Experts believe that if Israel were to wage a war against Lebanon today, Hezbollah is capable of capturing the entire Galilee region and perhaps more (northern occupied Palestinian territories) within the first two to three days of the war. 

That is one-third of the entire occupied Palestinian territories. 

Many things have changed since July 2006. Not only has Hezbollah become more powerful, but the region has changed. 

There is a possibility that any Israeli war on Lebanon would draw in Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha'abi, Yemen's Ansarullah as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip and the newly formed resistance in the occupied West Bank. Syria would also find a good opportunity to liberate the Golan Heights and attack from that direction.

Israel can assassinate resistance figures from the air. But with the introduction of drones on the battlefield, the regime's air superiority is no longer efficient, according to experts. 

When it comes to land combat, the regime has proven its cowardness, experts say. 

Israel can launch a war against Lebanon's Hezbollah, but as Sayyed Nasrallah noted, it would be "stupid" to do so.
 

Ebrahim Raisi Elected New President of Iran

The moderate candidate in Iran's presidential election has conceded loss in the country's presidential race to the country's hard-line judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi.

Former Central Bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati wrote on Instagram to judiciary chief Raisi early on Saturday.

"I hope your administration provides causes for pride for the Islamic Republic of Iran, improves the economy and life with comfort and welfare for the great nation of Iran."

According to preliminary vote count, Raisi won 62 percent or 17.8 million votes, to Rezaei's 3.3 million and Hemmati's 2.4 million, said Jamal Orf, the head of Iran's Interior Ministry election headquarters.

The fourth candidate, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received around one million votes, Orf said.

The official said more than 28 million Iranians out of 59 million eligible voters had cast ballots.

The initial results announced also appeared to show the race had the country's lowest turnout of any vote since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, the vote had no international observers to monitor the election in line with past years.

Vote count was still underway, but reports suggest Raeisi could be winning by a big margin.

Iran's moderate President Hassan Rouhani announced his successor had been elected, but did not name the widely expected victor.

"I congratulate the people on their choice," said Rouhani after Friday's vote as other candidates also congratulated Raisi. "My official congratulations will come later, but we know who got enough votes in this election and who is elected today by the people."

Raisi did not immediately acknowledge Hemmati's concession, nor that of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei, who also conceded the loss.

Mohsen Rezaei's concession in a post on Twitter came as Iran's outgoing President Hassan Rouhani also acknowledged the winner in the country's vote Friday was "clear," though he didn't immediately name judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi. 

On Twitter, Rezaei praised Khamenei and the Iranian people for taking part in the vote.

"God willing, the decisive election of my esteemed brother, Ayatollah Dr. Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, promises the establishment of a strong and popular government to solve the country's problems," Rezaei wrote.

The election on Friday was dominated by Raisi, a protégé of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the disqualification of the strongest competitors who could have challenged him in the vote. 

As night fell Friday, turnout appeared far lower than in Iran’s last presidential election in 2017. 

Iranians casting votes to elect new president

Iranian Presidential election being held on 18th June 2021, highlight a transition of society. Whatever may be the outcome the hostility between United States and Iran must be ended. While older generation may still be with hardliners, the younger generation ‑ born and grown under economic sanctions ‑ wants a change. It would be good if the process of easing begins now or the rebel groups may start seeking foreign help.

Nearly 60 million eligible voters in Iran will decide the fate of four candidates to succeed President Hassan Rouhani. Iranians voted in a presidential election on Friday amid concerns over a low turnout with the conservative head of the judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi, widely seen as the front-runner.

“If elected, Raisi will be the first Iranian president in recent memory to have not only been sanctioned before he has taken office, but potentially sanctioned while being in office,” said analyst Jason Brodsky.

Raisi – who like his political patron the supreme leader is an implacable critic of the West – is under US sanctions for alleged involvement in executions of political prisoners decades ago.

With uncertainty surrounding Iran’s efforts to revive its 2015 nuclear deal and growing poverty at home after years of United States sanctions, the turnout for the voters is being portrayed by some analysts as a referendum on the current leadership’s handling of an array of crises. Voter enthusiasm was dampened by the disqualification of many candidates and the deep economic malaise

Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari, reporting from Tehran, said there is lot of support behind Raisi. “The general public has one thing on their mind that they want some change from the moderate and reformist government they have seen over the past eight years,” she said.

“There is a sense that the economic situation in the country is not going to change any time soon. So they are hoping Raisi will bring some kind of change.”

Iranian opposition groups abroad and some dissidents at home have urged a boycott of the vote they see as an engineered victory for Raisi.

A win for Raisi would confirm the political demise of pragmatist politicians such as Rouhani, weakened by the US decision to quit the nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions in a move that stifled rapprochement with the West.

But it would not disrupt Iran’s bid to revive the agreement and break free of tough oil and financial sanctions, Iranian officials say, with the country’s ruling elite aware their political fortunes rely on tackling worsening economic hardship.

Tensions remain high with both the United States and Israel, which is believed to have carried out a series of attacks targeting Iranian nuclear sites and assassinating the scientist who created its military atomic program decades earlier.

Will Ebrahim Raisi be next President of Iran?

Ebrahim Raisi, from the hard-liner camp, is being termed handpicked candidate of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for the position of President as well as eventual pick to succeed himself. His positive statement toward Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) turned many heads. The front-runner and Judiciary Chief, Raisi has embraced the possibility of returning to the 2015 nuclear deal as long as Iran’s interests are met.

Raisi made the statement in a series of presidential debates that have been taking place since last week in the lead up to Presidential Election scheduled for 18th June 2021.

A mark of his campaign has been Iranian self-resilience and the “resistance economy” having the ability to overcome American sanctions by producing more critical items for everyday life domestically.

In general, Raisi has slammed current President Hassan Rouhani and his pragmatist camp as being too compromising with the United States and the West.

In contrast, his recent statement that he would not oppose a return to the JCPOA in the right circumstances is not that different from Rouhani and pragmatist policy.

The main difference between the hard-liner and pragmatist camp may simply be a matter of months.

If Rouhani would have preferred a return to the deal before the 18th June Election, both to enhance his legacy and to empower another pragmatist candidate, the latest predictions are that Raisi and Khamenei prefer that a deal wait until August, when the new president would take office.

Raisi’s somewhat pro-JCPOA statement was also noteworthy as in an earlier debate he had been criticized for undermining relations with the West and his response had evaded addressing the JCPOA as an issue head-on.

His follow-up answer in a later debate could signal a clear process to prepare the hard-liner base for compromising with the West and the US in substance, even if the tone will continue to be one of conflict.

During the presidential election of 2017, Raisi made some similar election season statements moderating his stance that he would abide by the JCPOA despite his and the hard-liners’ frequent criticism of talks with the West.

However, in that election Rouhani defeated Raisi, who came in second place with almost 16 million votes, or close to 40% of actual voters.

This time, Khamenei’s Guardian Council disqualified all viable contenders from rival camps who could have beaten Raisi, including even the current vice president and a former parliamentary speaker, reportedly to guarantee his victory.

None of the six other candidates approved to run are viewed as serious national contenders and the debates are viewed by many Iranians as going through the motions.

Experts predict the election turnout could be an all-time low, but by holding debates with six other candidates and making positive statements about the JCPOA, the hard-liners appear to be trying to build Raisi’s legitimacy to some degree.

Israel elects new President

Jewish Agency chairman Isaac Herzog will be the 11^th President of Israel after he received 87 votes from MKs in a secret ballot vote in the Knesset plenum. Herzog's opponent, Miriam Peretz, prize-winning educator of Israel received 27 votes and three MKs abstained. Had she been elected, Peretz would have become Israel’s first woman president.

It was the largest victory in any presidential election in Israel's history. Herzog will take over from the current President Reuven Rivlin when his term ends on 9th July 2021.

Herzog thanked all the MKs who voted for him and said it was an honor to serve the entire people of Israel. He called Peretz a hero and an inspiration.

"I will be the president of everyone," Herzog said, singling out Israelis across the political spectrum and Diaspora Jewry.

Herzog said alongside Netanyahu that he was ready to work with any government and any prime minister.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yamina leader Naftali Bennett, who is trying to replace him, congratulated Herzog and wished Peretz well.

Rivlin spoke with Herzog on the phone, and also called Miriam Peretz to thank her.

“I send you my warmest greetings, Mr. President,” Rivlin said. “I can tell you that the responsibility of the role that you are about to assume is unlike anything you have done until now. The Jewish and democratic system we established here, in the land of our ancestors, has a body and soul. If the Knesset is a place of argument, as we have certainly seen recently, the President's Residence is a place of discourse, partnership and statehood.”

Rivlin said the title of ‘first citizen’ and the task of guarding the character of the State of Israel, particularly at this point in time, are heavy responsibilities.

"I have no doubt that you will bear these responsibilities superbly," Rivlin said. "I am proud to pass on the baton to you in a month’s time.”

With his victory, Herzog become the first president whose father had been president. Chaim Herzog was Israel's sixth president. 

Both Herzog, who visited the Western Wall on Tuesday to pray for success, and Peretz continued their efforts to meet with as many MKs as possible ahead of the vote.

Every Knesset faction granted its MKs the freedom to vote their conscience, rather than binding them by faction discipline. None of the factions endorsed a candidate.

This is the first presidential race in Israel in which none of the candidates were current MKs.

Peretz said she was thrilled that after her background coming to Israel from Morocco and going to a transit camp, she was considered worthy to stand against someone of Herzog's caliber. She said she would continue in her mission to heal the rifts in the nation.

In her concession speech, alongside Netanyahu, Peretz said that by running, she accomplished what as a child she could not have even dreamed of.

"A fitting president who honors us was elected," Peretz said. "I will pray for his success, because his success is our success."

Michael Siegal, The Jewish Agency’s Chairman of the Board of Governors, said Herzog's "unwavering dedication to the Jewish people and to serving the State of Israel is an inspiration, and we will all undoubtedly continue to benefit from his leadership."