According to Reuters, 2025 will be a year of reckoning for
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is set to cement his strategic
goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran's nuclear
ambitions and capitalizing on the dismantling of Tehran's allies -
Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the removal of Syrian
president Bashar al-Assad.
Assad's collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of
Hamas and Hezbollah and the destruction of their military structure mark a
succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu.
Without Syria, the alliances Tehran has nurtured for
decades have unraveled. As Iran's influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the
dominant power in the region.
Netanyahu is poised to zero in on Iran's nuclear ambitions
and missile program, applying an unyielding focus to dismantling and
neutralizing these strategic threats to Israel.
Iran, Middle East observers say, faces a stark choice:
Either continue its nuclear enrichment program or scale back its
atomic activities and agree to negotiations.
"Iran is very vulnerable to an Israeli attack,
particularly against its nuclear program," said Joost R. Hiltermann,
Middle East and North Africa Program Director of the International Crisis
Group. "I wouldn't be surprised if Israel did it, but that doesn't get rid
of Iran."
"If they (Iranians) do not back down, Trump and
Netanyahu might strike, as nothing now prevents them," said Palestinian
analyst Ghassan al-Khatib, referring to President-elect Donald Trump.
Khatib argued that the Iranian leadership, having demonstrated pragmatism in
the past, may be willing to compromise to avert a military confrontation.
Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 agreement between Iran and
six world powers aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear goals, is likely to step
up sanctions on Iran's oil industry, despite calls to return to
negotiations from critics who see diplomacy as a more effective long-term
policy.
Amid the turmoil of Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu's
long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a
defining role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the outbreak of
the Gaza war in 2023, Netanyahu took the stand in proceedings that have
bitterly divided Israelis.
With 2024 coming to an end, the Israeli prime minister will
likely agree to sign a ceasefire accord with Hamas to halt the 14-month-old
Gaza war and free Israeli hostages held in the enclave, according to sources
close to the negotiations.
But Gaza would stay under Israeli military control in the
absence of a post-war US plan for Israel to cede power to the Palestinian
Authority (PA), which Netanyahu rejects. Arab states have shown little
inclination to press Israel to compromise or push the decaying PA to overhaul
its leadership to take over.
"Israel will remain in Gaza militarily in the
foreseeable future because any withdrawal carries the risk of Hamas reorganizing.
Israel believes that the only way to maintain the military gains is to stay in
Gaza," Khatib told Reuters.
For Netanyahu, such a result would mark a strategic victory,
consolidating a status quo that aligns with his vision: Preventing Palestinian
statehood while ensuring Israel's long-term control over Gaza, the West Bank
and East Jerusalem -- territories internationally recognised as integral to a
future Palestinian state.
The Gaza war erupted when Hamas militants stormed into
Israel on October 07, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages,
according to Israeli tallies. Israel responded with an air and land offensive
that has killed 45,000 people, health authorities there say, displaced 1.2
million and left much of the enclave in ruins.
While the ceasefire pact would bring an immediate end to the
Gaza hostilities, it would not address the deeper, decades-old
Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Arab and Western officials say.
On the ground, prospects for a Palestinian state, an option
repeatedly ruled out by Netanyahu's government, have become increasingly
unattainable, with Israeli settler leaders optimistic that Trump will align
closely with their views.
A surge in settler violence and the increasing confidence of
the settler movement - highway billboards in some West Bank areas bear the
message in Arabic "No Future in Palestine" - reflect a growing
squeeze on Palestinians.
Even if the Trump administration were to push for an end to
the conflict, "any resolution would be on Israel’s terms," said
Hiltermann of the Crisis Group.
"It's over when it comes to a Palestinian state, but
the Palestinians are still there," he said.
In Trump's previous term, Netanyahu secured several
diplomatic wins, including the “Deal of the Century,” a US-backed
peace plan which Trump floated in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict.
The plan, if implemented, marks a dramatic shift in US
policy and international agreements by overtly aligning with Israel and
deviating sharply from a long-standing land for peace framework that has
historically guided negotiations.
It would allow Israel to annex vast stretches of land in the
occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. It
would also recognize Jerusalem as the "undivided capital of Israel" -
effectively denying Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital, a
central aspiration in their statehood goals and in accordance with UN
resolutions.
SYRIA AT CRITICAL CROSSROADS
Across the border from Israel, Syria stands at a critical
juncture following the overthrow of Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel
forces, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani.
Golani now faces the monumental task of consolidating
control over a fractured Syria, where the military and police force have
collapsed. HTS has to rebuild from scratch, securing borders and maintaining
internal stability against threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad
regime, and other adversaries.
The greatest fear among Syrians and observers alike is
whether HTS, once linked to al-Qaeda but now presenting itself as a Syrian
nationalist force to gain legitimacy, reverts to a rigid Islamist ideology.
The group’s ability or failure to navigate this balance will
shape the future of Syria, home to diverse communities of Sunnis, Shi'ites, Alawites,
Kurds, Druze and Christians.
"If they succeed in that (Syrian nationalism) there's
hope for Syria, but if they revert to their comfort zone of quite strongly
ideologically-tainted Islamism, then it's going to be divisive in Syria,"
said Hiltermann.
"You could have chaos and a weak Syria for a long time,
just like we saw in Libya and Iraq."