Iran: Biggest loser after Assad’s fall

Among the central factors that led to the ouster of Bashar al Assad was Iranian and Russian decisions not to intervene yet again to prop him up. While Syria’s trajectory remains highly uncertain, its post-Assad posture is likely to be inimical to both the countries.    

Tehran had long used Syria as vector to project influence in the region and marshalled significant resources and manpower to keep Assad in power when the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011.

Moscow similarly saw its ties with Assad as a source of regional influence, and its 2015 intervention in Syria was decisive in Assad maintaining his stranglehold on power.

But with Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and Iran — and its allies like Hezbollah — severely weakened by the post October 07, 2023 conflict with Israel, neither patron was willing to rescue Assad once again.

USIP’s Garrett Nada explains what Assad’s ouster means for Iran: 

The toppling of the Assad regime is a major loss for Iran, which has not been so isolated or vulnerable in the region since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Syria was Iran’s only close state ally in the Middle East. It was a frontline against Iran’s archenemy Israel and the linchpin of Tehran’s ability to project power in the Levant. For four decades, Syria was the main conduit for Iran’s supply of weapons and equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which became the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.

Iran’s extensive support to Assad during the Syrian civil war, which broke out in 2011, reflected the country’s importance for Tehran’s regional strategy. Iran deployed thousands of military advisers and troops, mobilized tens of thousands of foreign Shiite fighters from as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan to bolster regime forces, and organized a new Syrian paramilitary and provided billions of dollars in aid. Iran’s efforts, coupled with Russian air support, helped keep Assad in control of much of Syria until late 2024.  

Iranian officials quickly accepted the fate of the Assad regime despite all the blood and treasure invested. “It is the Syrian people who must decide on the future of their country and its political and governmental system,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on December 08, 2024.

Iran’s foreign ministry expressed a willingness to engage with a new government. “The Iranian and Syrian nations have always had long-standing and friendly relationship,” it said on December 08.

“It is expected that this relationship will continue with a wise and forward-looking approach by both nations, based on mutual interests and adherence to international legal obligations.”

Iran asked HTS to protect Shiite holy sites in Syria, and HTS confirmed that it would protect the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus.

Yet Iran’s future relationship with Syria is dubious. Many of the players poised to play key roles in the transition hold Iran responsible for propping up the brutal Assad regime.

“This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, said in his victory speech on December 08.

On the same day, Iran’s embassy in Damascus, previously evacuated, was vandalized and looted. Posters of the supreme leader and other Iranians were torn and discarded on the floor.

The fall of Assad may push Iran to reconsider its “forward defense” strategy. For decades, Iran has relied on the “Axis of Resistance,” including Syria and militia allies across region, to pressure Israel and deter strikes on Iranian soil. The goal was to keep conflicts far from Iran’s borders. But the axis already faced severe setbacks before Assad’s departure.

Israel significantly weakened both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon during the war that erupted after the Hamas-led October 07 terrorist attacks. Israeli forces killed senior leaders and thousands of fighters and degraded both groups’ abilities to wage war. Iran will face significant logistical challenges to resupplying Hezbollah without the Syrian land bridge.

Meanwhile, Iran lacks credible mechanisms to deter Israel. Tehran launched unprecedented direct attacks on Israel, one in April 2024 including 170 drones, at least 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles, and one in October 2024 including more than 180 ballistic missiles. But neither caused significant damage or dissuaded Israel from launching counterattacks, the second of which crippled Iran’s air defenses and damaged missile production capabilities.

The remaining members of the “Axis of Resistance” are not much help in terms of deterring Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have proven resilient despite attacks by the US and Israel but have only carried out sporadic long-range missile and drone attacks.

The Iraqi militias backed by Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, are also relatively peripheral and have not caused much damage to Israeli targets.

With limited options, a growing number of Iranian officials have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to allow the production of nuclear weapons. As of late 2024, Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium to fuel one nuclear bomb in as little as one or two weeks.

Tehran would need several months or more than a year to assemble a warhead and marry it to a delivery system, such as a ballistic missile. But moving to weaponize would come with its own serious risks.

 

Shattering of Axis of Resistance

The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant and unexpected development for Iran, comparable in its surprise to the Taliban’s swift takeover of Kabul in 2021. Iran has been a steadfast ally of Assad, who thought the cost of resistance is less than the cost of compromise. Tehran provided Damascus with substantial military and financial support throughout the Syrian civil war. The sudden downfall of Assad’s government not only disrupts Iran’s strategic foothold in the Levant but also challenges its influence in the broader Middle East region.

The rapid fall of the Western-backed government in Kabul — with which Tehran had sought to engage diplomatically to maintain stability along Iran’s eastern border — similarly caught the Iranian leadership off guard. This event as well as Assad’s toppling both underscore the volatility of regional alliances and the complexities Iran faces in navigating its foreign policy objectives amid rapidly changing political landscapes.

While Iran had at least prepared for a scenario of the Taliban’s return and established some contacts and exchanges with the group even before the latter returned to power, the collapse of the Assad regime, described as a key link in the Axis of Resistance, came more suddenly.

Only a few days before the fall of Damascus to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Iran started evacuating its key assets and personnel, including high-ranking military advisors and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to save critical resources.

It is vital for Iran at this point to secure a role in shaping the future of Syria’s political landscape to prevent an adversarial government and to be able to preserve some level of strategic influence in the region.

Although the common border with Afghanistan is perhaps the number one security concern for Iran to the east, Syria’s strategic value cannot be overstated when it comes to Iran’s western flank.

Syria was the heart of the resistance, which provided a direct link to Hezbollah in Lebanon and supported Iran’s deterrence against Israel. Thus, losing Syria not only disrupts the Axis of Resistance but also weakens Iran’s ability to project power in the region.

In the absence of Iranian proxies on the ground, the resulting power vacuum is likely to be filled by Turkey or Saudi Arabia, which in turn could force Iran to redirect its focus to defending its interests in other places.

At home, the legitimacy of the Iranian regime was severely damaged by its violent crackdowns on the Mahsa Amini protests in late 2022-early 2023. At the same time, Iran’s broad and substantial investments in Syria and elsewhere, which many Iranians saw as a costly miscalculation, intensified public criticism and political dissent over neglected economic issues.

Fears that their country could follow a path toward civil war, similar to those in Syria and Libya, deterred some from advocating for regime change at any cost. If Syria now descends into another civil war with further destruction, it could validate these concerns. However, if Syria manages to form an inclusive and stable government free of revenge, it could inspire Iranians.

In the aftermath of Assad’s collapse, Tehran will likely recalibrate its regional strategy, strengthening its militia networks, particularly Hezbollah and Shi’a militias in Syria and Iraq as the primary focus. These will need to serve as Tehran’s primary tool for projecting power in the absence of a friendly Syrian government.

Iran may also attempt to expand its regional alliances with Russia and China to sustain its ambitions. However, given the outcome of its previous reliance on Moscow to protect the Assad regime, Iran may need to recalculate the level of Russian support it can truly expect.

Rethinking its Syria policy may additionally encourage Tehran to shift from overt to covert approaches — a potentially challenging aim due to Iran’s over-stretched resources.

Assad’s downfall marks a significant setback for Iran’s regional strategy, disrupting the latter’s network of alliances and diminishing its influence in the Levant.

Courtesy: Middle East Institute

 

 

 

Syria: Opportunities and Pitfalls for Israel

The fall of Assad, an implacable foe of Israel who turned Syria into a staging ground for Iranian threats and weapons transfers to Hezbollah, is not something Israel would lament. With Syrian rebel forces rapidly advancing south toward Damascus after already taking Aleppo and Hama, the ground in Syria is shifting.

This shift is due in no small measure to the twin blows Israel dealt Hezbollah and Iran since the launch of Operation Northern Arrows in mid-September, aimed at returning displaced Israeli residents to their homes along the northern border.

In its war in Lebanon, Israel decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership, killed and wounded thousands of its fighters, and significantly degraded its missile and rocket capabilities. Hezbollah, which once fought in Syria to prop up the dictatorial regime of President Bashar al-Assad, is in no position to help Assad today as his regime has crumbled.

Iran also suffered blows at the hands of Israel – most notably the destruction of much of its air defense network and critical missile manufacturing infrastructure during Jerusalem’s retaliatory raid on October 26.

With Hezbollah severely weakened and Hamas in Gaza also no longer an effective proxy, Iran – which has made an art form of sending others to be killed to further its own interests – finds itself unable to provide Assad with the same level of assistance it once did. It also struggles to project the same regional power if wielded just a few months ago.

Assad’s other ally, Russia, whose intervention in the civil war in 2015 tipped the scales in his favor, is also unable to give Assad what it did in the past, preoccupied and overextended with its own war in Ukraine.

With Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia weakened – two of them due to Israeli action – Syrian rebels seized the opportunity to advance, launching their offensive on the same day a ceasefire was implemented in Lebanon. Hezbollah, weary and depleted, was in no position to counter the rebel advance.

The fall of Assad, an implacable foe of Israel who turned Syria into a staging ground for Iranian threats and weapons transfers to Hezbollah, is not something Israel would lament. However, the composition of the rebel forces threatening Assad’s regime is not an alliance that the Jewish state can applaud.

They are led by Sunni jihadists recently aligned with al-Qaeda and who remain on America’s list of terrorist organizations and also include Turkish-backed Islamists.

Israel has a clear interest in seeing Syria removed from Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” ending its role as a host for Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives and Iranian-sponsored militias and as a potential launch-pad for attacks against Israel.

Syria under Assad was a crucial pillar of Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon, serving as the main conduit for smuggling missiles and advanced weaponry into the country. If Syria is taken out of the equation, Hezbollah – already reeling from Israel’s onslaught – will face even greater difficulties rebuilding.

This would be welcome news for many in Lebanon seeking freedom from Hezbollah and Iran’s stranglehold. One significant side effect of Assad’s fall could be a chance for the Lebanese to finally regain control of their own country.

While these developments are largely positive for Israel, they come with complications. Jerusalem has no interest in seeing its neighbor to the northeast taken over by Sunni jihadists of the al-Qaeda ilk or Turkish-backed Islamists. Israel’s experience with such groups – like Hamas in Gaza – has been anything but encouraging.

What happens in Syria will most definitely have an impact on Israel in the future that is why Jerusalem must keep a vigilant eye there, sending messages to all concerned that there are two developments it will not tolerate. The first is chemical weapons depots falling into the hands of jihadist or Islamist rebels, and the second is the mass deployment of Iranian troops into the country.

Those are redlines that, if crossed, would severely compromise Israel’s national security and would necessitate immediate Israeli action to prevent.

Beyond these redlines, Israel can do little to positively impact developments inside Syria, other than working behind the scenes with the US to establish channels with more moderate elements in the opposition, hoping they will emerge as a constructive force in shaping Syria’s future. 

Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post

Syrian army announce fall of Assad regime

The Syrian army command notified their officers that the Assad regime has fallen, a Syrian officer informed Reuters on Sunday morning.

At the same time, the head of Syria's main opposition group abroad Hadi al-Bahra Syrian said on Sunday that Damascus is now "free of Bashar al-Assad."

Assad flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters, as rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.

Thousands in cars and on foot congregated at a main square in Damascus waving and chanting "Freedom," witnesses said.

On its telegram, the rebel group stated, "After 50 years of oppression under the regime, and 13 years of crime, tyranny and displacement, and after a long struggle and fight and confronting all forms of occupation forces, we announce today on 12-8-2024 the end of this dark era and the beginning of a new era for Syria."

"To the displaced all over the world, free Syria awaits you."

It added that the new Syria will be a place where everyone "coexists in peace, justice prevails and rights are established, where every Syrian is honored and his dignity is preserved, we turn the page on the dark past and open a new horizon for the future."

 

Yemen downs another US Reaper drone

Yemeni air defense units have shot down another US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the northern province of al-Jawf, the 12th aircraft of its kind destroyed by the country's forces so far.

The drone designed for intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance was downed while flying over the region early Friday, Yemeni media outlets reported. 

The US military acknowledged the videos circulating online showing what appeared to be a flaming aircraft dropping out of the sky and a field of burning debris in what those off-camera described as an area of al-Jawf province. The military said it was investigating the incident, declining to elaborate further.

Yemeni forces have surface-to-air missiles capable of downing aircraft. The country's Ansarullah movement has been a key component of the “Axis of Resistance” that includes Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.

Reapers, which cost around US$30 million apiece, can fly at altitudes up to 50,000 feet (15,240 meters) and have an endurance of up to 24 hours before needing to land. The aircraft have been flown by both the US military and the CIA over Yemen for years.

Yemenis have declared their open support for Palestine’s struggle against the Israeli occupation since the regime launched a devastating war on Gaza on October 07 last year, killing at least 43,469 Palestinians to date. 

Yemen's armed forces have said that they won’t stop their attacks until Israeli ground and aerial attacks in Gaza end. They have targeted more than 90 Israeli-linked vessels with missiles and drones since the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip started in October 2023.  

Ansarullah maintains that it targets ships linked to Israel, the United States or the Britain to force an end to Israel’s war on Gaza.  

In October, the US military unleashed B-2 stealth bombers to bomb Yemen in support of Israel.

 

Condemnation of Israeli attack on Iran

It may not be wrong to say that Israel having killed thousands in Gaza and Lebanon is now attacking Iran directly with regular intervals. One can say with complete confidence that Israel is doing all this under the patronage of United States. It is worth noting that some of the Muslim countries have condemned Saturday’s attack on Iran, with the request to apply restraint.   

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran as a violation of the country’s sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms.

“The Kingdom affirms its firm position in its rejection of the continued escalation in the region and the expansion of the conflict that threatens the security and stability of the countries and peoples of the region,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Riyadh also urged all parties to “exercise the utmost restraint and reduce escalation”, warning of the ramifications of continuing military conflicts in the region.

Malaysia

Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry also released a statement in response to Israel’s overnight attacks, labelling the strikes a “clear violation of international law” that “seriously undermine regional security”.

“Malaysia calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and an end to the cycle of violence,” the statement said.

The Foreign Ministry added that Israel’s continued attacks on countries in the Middle East is bringing the region closer to the brink of a wider war.

Iraq

Iraqi Shia cleric and head of National Wisdom Movement, Ammar Hakim, has strongly condemned recent Israeli attacks on Iranian cities, expressing solidarity with the Iranian people, their leadership, and government.

Hakim urged the international community to unite in countering the spread of Israeli influence, which he argued violates international charters and norms. He warned that Israel’s actions threaten to escalate conflicts, extending violence beyond Palestine and Lebanon into Syria, Iran, and other nations.

Hakim called on the United Nations and the Security Council to take decisive action to prevent Israel’s behavior from further destabilizing the region.

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Pakistan

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif stated on Saturday that Pakistan firmly condemns Israel's recent aggression against Iran and stands with Iran and its neighbors in their pursuit of peace.

He also called on all parties involved to exercise restraint to prevent further escalation. On his social media platform X, the prime minister posted, “Deeply concerned by the recent act of Israeli aggression against Iran. Such actions threaten regional peace and stability and violate sovereignty and international law.”

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Kuwait

Kuwait’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a strong condemnation of Israel’s recent military action against Iran, describing it as part of a broader policy aimed at destabilizing the region through violations of national sovereignty.

In a statement released Saturday, the ministry highlighted that Israel’s aggression against Iran exemplifies a disruptive approach that endangers the security of the entire region and disregards international laws and norms.

The ministry called on the international community and the UN Security Council to take responsibility in curbing these actions, which threaten the region’s future and the welfare of its people. It emphasized the importance of decisive steps to uphold regional security and stability, grounded in international laws and treaties.

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United Arab Emirates 

The UAE has strongly condemned Israel’s military strikes on Iran, and expressed its deep concern over the continued escalation and its repercussions on security and stability in the region.
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Oman

Oman’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned Israel’s recent attack on Iranian territory, calling it a blatant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and international law.

The ministry stated that Israel’s latest act of aggression attempted to target military sites in Tehran province early Saturday, but the assault reportedly failed to achieve its objectives. This incident, it noted, is part of a broader pattern of Israeli hostilities in the region.

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Israel strikes military targets in Iran

Israel has launched direct airstrikes against Iran in a high-stakes retaliatory attack that brings the Middle East closer to a regional war.

The Israeli military said it had completed its air attack on Saturday morning, hitting missile manufacturing sites and aerial defences in several areas inside Iran. Israel’s public broadcaster said three waves of strikes had been completed.

Iranian air defences said Israel attacked military targets in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam and that “limited damage” was caused to some locations.

A senior US official described the strikes as “extensive”, “precise” and against military targets across Iran. The US did not participate in the strikes, the official said, but worked with the Israeli government to encourage a low-risk attack with no civilian harm.

“The effect was a proportionate self-defence response. The effect is to deter future attacks and to degrade Iran’s abilities to launch future attacks.”

The official stressed that the US considered the operation to be an “end to the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran”.

“This should be the end of the direct military exchange between Israel and Iran – we had a direct exchange in April and that was closed off and now we’ve had this direct exchange again.”

At least seven explosions were reported over the capital, Tehran, and nearby Karaj as well as the eastern city of Mashhad just after 2.30am local time on Saturday, as Israeli jets struck military targets in the country.

Iranian media initially appeared to downplay the airstrikes, noting that Tehran’s airport was operating normally. State TV reported several strong explosions heard around the capital, while the state news agency, IRNA, said there had been no casualties. There was no immediate official comment about the source of explosions, which Iranian news outlets reported were under investigation. Air defence systems were activated around the country.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took the rare step of acknowledging the attack on Iran, in a confirmation that a decades-old shadow war between the enemy states has now firmly moved into the open.

Before Israel launched the airstrikes on Saturday, Iran had repeatedly warned there were “no red lines” for Iran on the issue of defending itself. Last week, the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, also indirectly threatened US forces against operating in Israel after Washington dispatched a Thaad advanced missile defence system battery and 100 troops to aid its ally amid the tensions.

The White House was notified shortly before Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran, a spokesperson said. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, had said on Wednesday that Israel’s retaliation should not lead to greater escalation.

Iranian leader defends strikes on Israel

Iran's missile strikes on Israel were "correct, logical, and lawful", Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told a vast crowd that had gathered to hear him speak in Tehran on Friday.

The supreme leader described the attack as the "minimum punishment" for what he called Israel's "astonishing crimes" while leading Friday prayers in the capital, something he has not done since 2020.

Khamenei's speech came three days after Iran fired nearly 200 missiles at Israel, in what it said was retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

The Farsi-speaking supreme leader delivered part of his speech in Arabic.

During his sermon, Khamenei praised Nasrallah and voiced support for Hamas and Hezbollah, which he said provided "vital service to the entire region and the entire Islamic world".

He said Iran-aligned armed groups "will not back down" in their conflict with Israel, which entered a new phase after Hamas raided Israel almost one year ago.

Iran is the main supporter of Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as other armed groups around the Middle East which have attacked Israel. They often dub themselves the "Axis of Resistance".

In recent weeks, several senior leaders of Iran-backed groups and Iran's powerful military wing, the Revolutionary Guards, have been killed in Israeli strikes or presumed Israeli assassinations.

The supreme leader's appearance in front of a crowd of tens of thousands in Tehran is a sign of the gravity of the moment for the Iranian regime, which is facing widespread domestic discontent.

It could be read as an attempt to show strength and restore Iran’s credibility as leader of the “Axis of Resistance”.

The public appearance was also intended to show that Khamenei is not in hiding, after reports emerged that he had been taken to a secure location following Nasrallah's assassination.

The Grand Mosalla Mosque was flooded with people after Iranians were given free transport to attend the sermon. A large Palestinian flag was seen in the crowd. Khamenei holds ultimate power in Iran, but very rarely leads Friday prayers himself.

The last time he did was in 2020, after the US killed Iran's most senior military commander, Qassem Soleimani. The time before that was in 2012.

Iran is still reeling from the loss of its allies Nasrallah and Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran in July.

Israel is widely considered to be behind Haniyeh's killing, though it has never commented on his death.

Khamenei also told the crowd that Iran would retaliate if, as expected, Israel launched a response to Tuesday's missile attack.

"If we needed to do that again, we would do it again in the future," Khamenei told supporters.

On Thursday, US President Joe Biden suggested a possible Israeli strike on Iran's oil infrastructure had been discussed, as Israel continued to weigh up how to strike back at Tehran.

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette