Next Iranian Supreme Leader, Israeli Perspective

According to The Jerusalem Post, from 1997-2005 and again from 2013-2021, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei experimented with Iranian presidents who were reformists and pragmatists, Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani respectively.

Although Rouhani was still in power in 2020, by that time the United States had pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, which was a signature policy of Rouhani and Khamenei had already decided to cut anyone other than hardliners out of future power.

For the 2020 Iranian parliamentary elections, Khamenei not only disqualified reformists, the closest Iran has to a group that believes in some Western values, who had been disqualified from running for years.

He started to also disqualify pragmatists, whose bedrock values were as anti-Western as Khamenei’s hardliners, but who believed that trying to reach deals with the West to improve relations was a tactical imperative.

This continued in the 2021 presidential election of hardliner and Khamenei favorite, Ebrahim Raisi, with the shocking disqualifications of top Iranian officials First Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri and former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani from running for office.

These moves and the banning of hundreds of other candidates, by Khamenei, or technically by his Guardian Council, which does his bidding in banning undesirable candidates from running, brought voter turnout down to record lows.

While some areas still reached 40% or more in voter turnout, some areas had single digit voter turnout, as compared to 70% voter turnout in 2017.

At a collective level, whereas Raisi lost the 2017 election to Rouhani (back when Khamenei was still allowing partially free elections) by around 23.6 million to around 15.8 million, Raisi’s victory in 2021 saw him only rise to 18 million.

In other words, had all the voters who voted in 2017 voted again, Raisi still would probably have lost by a couple of million votes.

He only won because he had no real opposition and an artificial coerced drop in voter turnout.

Many reformists and pragmatists have been critical of Iran’s role in Syria’s civil war during the 2010s and other adventurous violent moves, such as the recent missile attacks on adversaries in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan.

If the pragmatists had remained in power, there probably would have been a renewed nuclear deal JCPOA 2.0 in mid-2021, given that the US and Iranian pragmatist negotiators had agreed on around 90% of the terms.

Israel would not have liked America relieving sanctions pressure from Tehran, but the fact is that once China and Russia made the strategic decision to ignore sanctions, mere sanctions from the United States and the European Union were going to be insufficient to force the Islamic Republic to change its terrorist proxies and nuclear behavior.

Under Raisi’s hardliners, this has meant a constant push for enriching record levels of uranium to get to the nuclear threshold for not only one nuclear weapon but potentially for an arsenal.

 

 

'Nothing wrong' with a nuclear deal with West, says Khamenei

Iran's supreme leader said on Sunday that a deal with the West over Tehran's nuclear work was possible if the country's nuclear infrastructure remained intact, amid a stalemate between Tehran and Washington to revive a 2015 nuclear pact.

Months of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to salvage the nuclear accord with six major powers have stalled since September 2022, with both sides accusing each other of making unreasonable demands.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's guarded approval comes days after both Tehran and Washington denied a report that they were nearing an interim deal under which Tehran would curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.

"There is nothing wrong with the agreement (with the West), but the infrastructure of our nuclear industry should not be touched," Khamenei said, according to state media.

The 2015 agreement limited Iran’s uranium enrichment activity to make it harder for Tehran to develop nuclear arms, in return for lifting international sanctions.

In 2018, the then US President Donald Trump exited the pact and re-imposed sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy, leading Tehran to gradually move well beyond the deal's nuclear restrictions and reviving US, European and Israeli fears that Iran may seek an atomic bomb.

Echoing Iran's official stance for years, Khamenei said the Islamic Republic has never sought to build a nuclear bomb.

"Accusations about Tehran seeking nuclear weapons are a lie and they know it. We do not want nuclear arms because of our religious beliefs. Otherwise they (the West) would not have been able to stop it," said Khamenei.

Khamenei, who has the last say on all state matters such as Iran's nuclear program, said the country's nuclear authorities should continue working with the UN nuclear watchdog "under the framework of safeguards".

Under the law, Tehran would suspend IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites and step up uranium enrichment if sanctions are not lifted.

"This is a good law ... which must be respected and not violated in providing access and information (to the IAEA)," Khamenei said.

Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported limited progress over disputed issues with Iran, including re-installing some monitoring equipment originally put in place under the 2015 pact that Tehran ordered removal last year.

 

US narrative on the removal of Ali Shamkhani

After a decade surviving Iran’s fractious politics, Ali Shamkhani was removed as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the highest body in charge of foreign policy and national security, on May 22, 2023.

The former rear admiral, a young hero during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war who rose to become minister of defense in the 1990s, had served three presidents from rival factions as head of the SNSC. He was pushed aside in favor of Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a senior Revolutionary Guards officer.

The reshuffling, which followed the execution in January of a former Shamkhani aide charged with treason, could significantly impact deliberations at the SNSC, which has only 12 permanent members.

“Shamkhani is considered a balancing factor in the decision-making process in Tehran,” Danny Citrinowicz, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told The Iran Primer.

Shamkhani was widely regarded to be pragmatic on contested issues, such as negotiations with the United States over Iran’s nuclear program. He was a moderate voice who called for discussions and dialogue, Alicia Kearns, British House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee chair, told the BBC in January 2023.

Shamkhani has long been the most senior ethnic Arab in Iran’s government, largely dominated by Persians and other groups. He earned the trust of officials ranging from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a hardliner, to President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), a reformist, due to his years of distinguished service in both the IRGC and the conventional military.

Shamkhani’s nearly 10-year term as SNSC secretary, from 2013 to 2023, was second only to Hassan Rouhani, who served in the position from 1989 to 2005. Shamkhani has been a survivor in a regime that has increasingly purged reformists, centrists and even some conservatives.  

Shamkhani has political enemies. For years, critics have charged him and members of his family, including his sons and son-in-law, of corruption and amassed wealth through shipping and construction companies.

In November 2022, Shamkhani reportedly faced criticism from hardliners for failing to quash the nationwide protests that erupted in September 2022.

In January 2023, Iran executed Alireza Akbari, who served as Shamkhani’s deputy from 2000 to 2004. Akbari was convicted of spying for Britain and corruption on earth. The execution triggered media speculation about Shamkhani's fate. IRGC-linked media reported that he might step down, but a news agency linked to the SNSC denied the reports.

Shamkhani’s last major accomplishment was helping to broker Iran’s rapprochement with regional rival Saudi Arabia. In March 2023, he led a delegation to Beijing for talks with the Sunni kingdom. The two countries agreed to restore diplomatic ties seven years after severing relations.

Shamkhani appeared to foreshadow the end of his term with a cryptic tweet on May 21. He quoted a 16th-century poem that Iranian media took as a sign of his imminent removal.

On May 22, President Raisi appointed Ali Akbar Ahmadian, an IRGC commander, to replace Shamkhani. Supreme Leader Khamenei then selected Ahmadian as his representative on the SNSC, which indicated his approval.

“I would like to thank and appreciate Ali Shamkhani's responsible, persistent presence and his efforts as the leader’s representative during these years,” Khamenei wrote in a decree.

Khamenei named Shamkhani his political advisor. “In light of the closeness between the two and the degree of Khamenei's trust in Shamkhani, he will likely continue to play a significant role in the decision-making process in Tehran,” according to Citrinowicz, who headed the Iran branch of Israel Defense Intelligence’s Research and Analysis Division. “Shamkhani has a great deal of knowledge and experience, with an emphasis on the nuclear issue.”

Khamenei also appointed Shamkhani as member of the Expediency Council, a body that resolves constitutional disputes between the Parliament and the Guardian Council. The body, which includes some three dozen members, has often included officials who have fallen out of favor. So the role could be largely ceremonial.

 

Ayatollah Khamenei urges reversal of progress in Arab Israeli relations

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that the Arab nations who have improved ties with Israel have “sinned” and must reverse course. Four nations, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, agreed to normalize ties in 2020 under the “Abraham Accords” .

This led to Israel’s first treaties with Arab nations since reaching an agreement with Jordan in 1994. Jordan and Egypt were the only Arab nations to have existing diplomatic ties with Israel before the 2020 agreements.

“Some governments have unfortunately made big errors and have sinned in normalizing their relations with the usurping and oppressive Zionist regime,” Khamenei said. “It is an act against Islamic unity; they must return from this path and make up for this big mistake.”

Iran has positioned itself as a strong defender of the Palestinian cause since Ayatollah Khameini took power in the midst of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “If the unity of Muslims is achieved, the Palestinian question would definitely be resolved in the best fashion,” Khamenei said.

Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate as the former builds out its nuclear program, which Israel accuses of being a nuclear weapons program designed to inflict as much harm as possible. Iran has repeatedly accused Israel of sabotaging and targeting its nuclear facilities.

In response to last Monday’s reports that NIS 5 billion had been approved to prepare the military for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkhani pledged to inflict “many billions of dollars” worth of damage if Israel strikes Tehran’s nuclear program.

US must lift curbs before Iran rejoins deal; Khamenei announces final and irreversible decision

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that Tehran’s “final and irreversible” decision was to return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal only if Washington lifts sanctions on the Islamic Republic, Iranian state TV reported.

The deal between Iran and six major powers limited Iran’s uranium enrichment activity to make it harder for Tehran to develop nuclear arms - an ambition Iran has long denied having - in return for the easing of the US and other sanctions.

It may be recalled that former US President Donald Trump had abandoned the deal in 2018, denouncing it as one-sided in Iran’s favour, and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.

“Iran has fulfilled all its obligations under the deal, not the United States and the three European countries ... If they want Iran to return to its commitments, the United States must in practice ... lift all sanctions,” state TV quoted Khamenei as saying in a meeting with Air Force commanders.

“Then, after verifying whether all sanctions have been lifted correctly, we will return to full compliance ... It is the irreversible and final decision and all Iranian officials have consensus over it.”

Western media has been saying that in response to Trump’s withdrawal, Tehran has breached the deal’s key limits one after the other, building up its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, refining uranium to a higher level of purity and using advanced centrifuges for enrichment.

US President Joe Biden, who took oath last month, has said that if Tehran returned to strict compliance with the pact, Washington would follow the suit and use that as a springboard to a broader agreement that might restrict Iran’s missile development and regional activities.

Iran has repeatedly said it could quickly reverse those violations if US sanctions are removed but has ruled out any talks over the country’s ballistic missile programme and Tehran’s influence in the Middle East, where Iran and Saudi Arabia have been involved in proxy wars for decades.