Iran: Zarif to lead transitional council

Iran's President-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, has appointed former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as the head of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations for the transition period in his first presidential decree. 

Zarif was one of the most prominent reformist figures backing Pezeshkian during his presidential campaign. The former foreign minister became a household name after he brokered the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. 

The council, comprised of experts and advisors, will focus on assessing potential candidates for key cabinet positions and ensuring a seamless handover of leadership. 

In a message on his X account, Zarif said Pezeshkian has yet to choose candidates for any vice-presidency or ministerial positions. 

"So far, no candidate for any position, including first vice president, has even been considered,” the former top diplomat announced. "The review process will start after receiving proposals from NGOs, scientific associations, trade associations, and the private sector." 

The council is reportedly set to convene meetings with various stakeholders on Saturday to conduct thorough evaluations of potential candidates.

Pezeshkian's office had earlier issued a call for input on cabinet members, inviting a wide range of social groups and political parties to participate in the process. 

 

Iranian oil output increases by 350,000 bpd

According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Iran’s crude oil output has increased by about 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) since the beginning of 2023, despite the US sanctions targeting the country’s oil sector.

“Despite tough financial restrictions, Iran managed to increase crude oil output by about 130,000 bpd in 2022 to an average 2.55 million bpd, and by 350,000 bpd since the beginning of this year,” the IEA said in its latest report dubbed Oil 2023.

The report argued that Iran remains a wildcard for world oil markets, and if it is released from sanctions, production could ramp up gradually by roughly 900,000 bpd to reach the capacity of 3.8 million bpd.

Higher exports and domestic throughput have pushed Iranian crude production up to around 2.9 million bpd in May 2023, it added.

Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Iran has been shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

The crude shipments have doubled since last autumn to reach 1.6 million barrels a day in May 2023, according to the report.

A Reuters report said on July 16, 2022 that Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

The United States, under former president Donald Trump, abandoned the nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in May 2018 and reinstated unilateral sanctions that the agreement had lifted.

Tehran's oil exports have been limited since May 2018. However, the exports have risen steadily during the term of current US President, Joe Biden.

The crude exports exceeded 1.5 million bpd in May 2023, the highest monthly rate since 2018, Reuters reported quoting Kpler, a major international tanker-tracking service.

The exports were roughly 2.5 million bpd in 2018, before the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Iran said in May it has boosted its crude output to above three million bpd. That's about three percent of global supply and would be the highest since 2018, according to figures from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

SVB International, a consultant, estimates crude production hit 3.04 million bpd in May, up from 2.66 million bpd in January. Exports of crude and condensate were 1.93 million bpd in May, according to the report.

"Sanctions are in place but perhaps they are not fully implemented or monitored," said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB.

The recently published figures are the latest sign that US sanctions on Iran have failed to cut the country’s oil revenues to zero, an objective frequently stated by former and current US administration officials.

They also vindicate efforts by Iran in recent years to rely more on diplomatic and economic resources to circumvent US sanctions rather than to submit to Washington’s pressure to scale back its nuclear, defense, and foreign policy programs in return for an easing of the sanctions.

In May, senior US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham confessed to the ineffectiveness of the sanctions that have been unilaterally imposed on Iran.

Graham slammed the Biden administration for failing to stop Iran’s oil exports.

“Iranians are making more money under sanctions not less and China is the biggest reason we're not doing a damn thing about it,” he reportedly said.

Iran rejects signing interim pact with United States

According to reports, Iran and the United States are concluding an interim deal that calls for partial sanctions relief on the Islamic Republic in exchange for modifications to the nation’s nuclear energy program have been rejected by Iran's mission to the UN.

The London-based Middle East Eye (MEE) website purportedly said that both countries were close to reaching such an agreement despite the stalling of negotiations on the renewal of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

It cited two unnamed sources as saying Iran and the United States were nearing a temporary deal that would swap some sanctions relief for reducing Iranian uranium enrichment activities.

The MEE also cited the sources as saying the two sides have reached an agreement on a temporary deal to take to their respective superiors.

The report said Iran would commit to cease enriching uranium to purity of 60% or above and would continue cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog in return for being allowed to export up to one million barrels of oil per day and gaining access to its income and other frozen funds abroad.

A White House National Security Council spokesperson also denied the MEE report on Thursday, labeling it false and misleading.

The spokesperson added, "Any reports of an interim deal are false."

According to National News, Iran's mission also said, "Our comment is the same as the White House comment."

Iran and a number of countries, including the United States, concluded an agreement known as the JCPOA in July 2015. The Islamic Republic was given a little amount of sanction relief as a result, and it subsequently offered to modify part of its nuclear activity. The agreement went into force in January 2016.

However, the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under the administration of former President Donald Trump, reinstating all the sanctions that it had waived.

In April 2021, talks were resumed under Joe Biden’s presidency to renew the accord. However, since Washington has refused to provide assurances that it won’t back out of the pact again, the negotiations have been stalled since September 2022.

The Iranian mission to the UN stated that there is no interim agreement meant to replace the JCPOA and that no such agreement is on the table.

On Wednesday, Mohsen Naziri Asl, Iran’s permanent representative to the United Nations in Vienna, mentioned the U.S.’s self-proclaimed willingness to rejoin the JCPOA.

“Despite the arduous negotiations that lasted for more than 18 months, mainly due to the lack of American political will and determination, we could not bring the talks to a conclusion,” he added.

The talks to revive the JCPOA started in April 2021 and lasted until September 2022.

Naziri Asl described Iran’s recent cooperative efforts with the IAEA as constructive and logical, calling expectations from Iran unreasonable and illogical.

“Iran’s nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment at various levels, are completely peaceful and in accordance with the Iranian people’s rights based on the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and are under the supervision and verification of the IAEA safeguards,” the top diplomat emphasized.

According to the diplomat, the US government has lately emphasized in many occasions that reviving the JCPOA is not on the agenda for months, expressing concern that certain parties have turned a blind eye to the irresponsible attitude, and are even aligning with it.

“The measure shows that miscalculations and minor political considerations are dominating the revival of an agreement that the international community has invested for years to achieve,” Naziri Asl remarked.

He also said, “It is a matter of serious concern that despite Iran’s extensive cooperation with the UN nuclear agency, the European Union, especially Germany, Britain and France, continue to resort to outdated tactics and play a dirty game with political motivation to target Iran’s ongoing cooperation with the IAEA.”

 

 

US adamant at keeping Iran out of oil market

Having imposed economic sanctions on Iran for more than four decades, especially after signing of nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, United States remains adamant at keeping Iran out of oil market. It may be recalled that when the things were taking some shape, President, Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal in 2018.

Nuclear negotiators who have gathered in Vienna after a five month-hiatus have indicated that they are optimistic about reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

“We stand five minutes or five seconds from the finish line,” Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov told reporters outside Vienna’s Palais Coburg on Sunday, four days into the talks. He said there are “three or four issues” left to be resolved.

“They are sensitive, especially for Iranians and Americans,” Ulyanov said. “I cannot guarantee, but the impression is that we are moving in the right direction.”

Enrique Mora, the European Union’s top negotiator who acts as mediator between Iran and the US, also said he is “absolutely” optimistic about the talks’ progress so far.

“We are advancing and I expect we will close the negotiations soon,” he told Iranian media.

The Wall Street Journal also said negotiations between Iran and the US on reviving the JCPOA are close to completion, Mora said on Sunday evening.

The text of an agreement could be closed in coming hours, said Mora.

According to the Iranian diplomats, experts are focusing on technical issues about Iran’s nuclear program.

Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), had confirmed on Saturday that the talks were mainly focused on Safeguards issues.

One of Iran’s demands is that the IAEA should stop unsubstantiated allegations regarding PMD that had already been resolved in July 2015, when the nuclear deal was struck.

In a telephone call with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Sunday afternoon, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, “We believe that the Agency should completely resolve the remaining issues related to the Safeguards Agreement by distancing itself from irrelevant and non-constructive political issues and through the technical channel.”

He added, “Nuclear weapons have no place in the defense doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran and are in contradiction to our policies and beliefs,” referring to a fatwa (religious decree) by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei declaring that the production, stockpile and use of nuclear weapons as forbidden.

"The Leader's fatwa that prohibits the use of nuclear weapons is clear-cut and is the final say for everybody," Iran's Foreign Minister said.

 

Washington obstructing Iranian nuclear deal, says Russian Foreign Minister

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov has accused Washington of obstructing the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by trying to introduce amendments to the nuclear agreement.

Speaking at a joint press conference with his Bahraini counterpart, Abdul Latif bin Rashid Al Zayani in Manama, Lavrov stressed Moscow will continue to work to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. 

He accused the United States of trying to obtain new gains by trying to introduce amendments to the agreement, stressing that the solution lies in returning to the implementation of the JCPOA regarding the Iranian nuclear program.

Lavrov stressed that his country will continue its plan to establish security in the Persian Gulf region, with the participation of Persian Gulf states including Iran, and to maintain peace and stability in the region.

Talks in Vienna over reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal still hang in the balance due to US stonewalling over a range of issues raised by Iran.

Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its fresh report on the state of cooperation with Tehran. It accused Iran of not providing credible explanations on three sites in which uranium particles have been allegedly found.

“Iran has not provided explanations that are technically credible in relation to the Agency's findings at those locations,” the report said according to Reuters. It added, “The Agency remains ready to engage without delay with Iran to resolve all of these matters.”

Iranian officials said the IAEA report does not reflect the level of cooperation between Iran and the Agency. Mohammad Reza Ghaebi, the acting head of Iran's permanent representative to the Vienna-based International Organizations, said the report is one-sided and fails to reflect Iran's considerable cooperation with the IAEA.

Russia has also said that the ball is now in the US court in terms of reviving the JCPOA. 

Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of Russia to International Organizations in Vienna, said Tuesday that it is up to the U.S. to make a decision on the Vienna talks. “The #ViennaTalks on #JCPAOA remains on pause since March 10, 2022.

According to mass media reports, Iran during the recent visit of the EU Coordinator to Tehran demonstrated certain degree of flexibility and now waits for a response from the US side. The ball is in Washington’s court,” he said on Twitter.

After a two-month lull in the talks, Iran appeared on Tuesday to be mounting new diplomatic efforts to push the talks forward. Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s chief negotiator, left Tehran for Oslo on Tuesday.

“Today, I departed for Oslo in continuation of recent regional and international consultations. Serious talks over bilateral, regional and international issues are on the agenda of this trip. We stress the development of relations between Iran and Norway along with our efforts to secure [our] national interests including the removal of illegal sanctions,” he said on Twitter.

The Iranian efforts come as the US keeps airing pessimism on the prospects of the talks succeeding. In his recent testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley struck a pessimistic note on the Vienna talks. 

“As I speak to you today, we do not have a deal with Iran and prospects for reaching one are, at best, tenuous,” Rob Malley told senators. He blamed the lull in talks on Iran, saying that if Iran maintains demands that go beyond the scope of the JCPOA, there will be no deal.

Iran and the US have been negotiating in Vienna through intermediaries since April 2021. But they are yet to reach a final deal.

Iran and China discuss regional and international issues

Lately, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke on phone with the Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi about bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.

Iranian Foreign Minister said that if the United States is serious, a good and robust agreement on reviving the US-abandoned Iran deal may be reached through Vienna talks.

Amir Abdollahian briefed his Chinese counterpart on the latest developments in efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran deal.

“If the American side is realistic, we will finalize a good, strong, and lasting agreement with the support of all negotiating parties in Vienna,” Amir Abdollahian said.

He stated that Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible to settle the remaining unresolved concerns through consultation with relevant parties in order to strike a good deal.

Iran expressed gratitude to China for its constructive engagement in the talks and expressed optimism that China would continue to give assistance.

“Iran is ready to resume the negotiations as soon as possible to resolve the final outstanding issues through consultation with other parties and strive for a good agreement,” Abdollahian told Wang, thanking Beijing “for its constructive role in the negotiations.”

He also mentioned his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stating that the Russian side reaffirmed its support for the lifting of US sanctions against the Islamic Republic by participating constructively in the Vienna talks.

Iran insists it wants assurances that the US would not abandon the agreement again. It also wants that US sanctions to be lifted in a verifiable way.

For his part, Wang stated that China has long supported achieving an agreement on restoring the JCPOA and is open to and supportive of efforts to this end. 

“China is willing to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Iran to push the settlement of the Iran nuclear issue in a direction conducive to regional peace and stability,” the chief diplomat pointed out.

He went on to say that the Chinese side recognizes Iran's genuine concerns, supports Iran in protecting its legitimate rights and interests, and opposes unilateral sanctions that have no legal basis.

“China understands Iran’s legitimate concerns and supports Iran in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests and opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law.” Wang asserted.

In reference to the continued growth of bilateral relations, the Chinese foreign minister stated that Beijing places a high value on expanding exchanges with Tehran and has no reservations about extending such relationships.

“In the face of the rapidly evolving international and regional situation, China is ready to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Iran to push for the resolution of the Iran nuclear issue in a direction conducive to regional peace and stability,” Wang said.

Amir Abdollahian also emphasized the importance of Tehran-Beijing relations and the necessity to strengthen them, stating that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's government prioritizes the development of ties. 

China plans to host the summit of the Foreign Ministers of countries neighboring Afghanistan. It will be the third summit of its kind. Wang lauded Iran's Foreign Minister for accepting an invitation to participate in the meeting.

Amir Abdollahian met with his Russian counterpart Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister stated that “Russia remains onboard for the final agreement in Vienna.”

The Iranian Foreign Minister visited Russia at a time that mainstream Western media outlets are speculating that Russia is impeding the conclusion of the negotiations in Vienna.

“I am tired of speculations regarding the Russian position at the final stage of the #ViennaTalks,” Russia’s lead negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov said via Twitter early on Wednesday. “Misunderstandings, misinterpretations, and distortion of realities. The bottom line: conclusion of the agreement depends not on Russia, but on others, especially #US.”

There is a moratorium on the talks in Vienna to allow negotiators to return to their respective capitals for more contacts to address a few unresolved concerns.

All sides to the talks have openly said that they are nearing the end of the process. Washington stated on Monday that the parties involved are “close to the finish line.” Iran has urged the US to abandon its “excessive demands” in order to reach an agreement as soon as possible.

The United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and launched a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions and intimidation against Iran. The Vienna talks seek to push the US to completely respect the agreement by lifting all anti-Iran sanctions.

 

Russia clarifies demanding written guarantees from United States

Russia has provided clarifications on its demand for written guarantees from the United States regarding the talks in Vienna over reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The clarifications were offered in a briefing at the Russian Embassy in Tehran with a limited number of reporters.

In the meeting, Russian Ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan spoke in detail about the Russian special military operation in neighboring Ukraine. But he also spoke broadly about the Russian demand in Vienna.

Responding to questions from the Tehran Times about the nature of guarantees Russia is now demanding at the Vienna talk, the Russian Ambassador lambasted Western media for spreading misinformation about the Russian demand, underlining Moscow’s positive approach toward the 2015 nuclear deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), both during the 2015 negotiations that culminated in the deal and the current talks to revive it. 

“You now are hearing contradictory voices claiming that Russia does not want the JCPOA talks to succeed,” the ambassador told the press briefing, noting that these voices are wrong. “Russia has adopted a positive approach toward both the JCPOA negotiations in 2015 and the current talks. But it is natural that we will take into account our interests,” he added. 

The Russian demand for guarantees was first made public by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a joint press conference with Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Ruslan Kazakbayev in Moscow on March 05.

Responding to a question on the prospect for the conclusion of the Vienna talks in the near future, Lavrov said, “Some problems regarding the interests of the Russian Federation have arisen recently. Agreements on resuming the JCPOA provide for a package of reciprocal commitments.”

He added that the original JCPOA provided for the absence of any obstacles to trade, economic and investment relations with Iran and to the implementation of military-technical cooperation projects with it. This could seem all right, but the avalanche of aggressive Western sanctions that is still rolling down gives one food for thought. These sanctions should be primarily reviewed by the lawyers.

He then broached the issue of guarantees. “We would like to receive a clear answer. We need guarantees that sanctions will not affect in any way the regime of trade, economic and investment ties set out in the JCPOA on Iran’s nuclear program. We asked our American colleagues (because they are running the whole show here) to give us guarantees in writing, at least at the level of the Secretary of State, that the current process launched by the US will not impinge in any way on our free full-scale trade, economic, investment and military-technical cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said.

The European parties to the JCPOA hinted that the Russian demand is extraneous in their March 08 joint statement to the IAEA Board of Governors.

Iran has so far refrained from evaluating the Russian demand and preferred to pursue the matter through diplomatic channels. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke over the phone with Lavrov on Monday. Dzhagaryan said the two went over the Russian demand for guarantees in detail. 

The Russian Foreign Minister told his Iranian counterpart that the resuscitation of the JCPOA should ensure that all its participants have equal rights regarding the unhindered development of cooperation in all areas without any discrimination, according to a Russian Foreign Ministry statement.

Dzhagaryan reiterated this in his Wednesday briefing, saying that Russia wants the Vienna talks to achieve its goal. But we will also take into account our interests, he reiterated.

When asked to provide details about the guarantees Russia is seeking, the Ambassador said he is not authorized to give details in this regard. But he said, “We asked the United States. to give us a clear text on the guarantees which does not have any brackets so that we review it.”

Dzhagaryan said he is in regular contact with Iranian officials and they are fully aware of the Russian demand.

The Tehran Times asked the Russian ambassador whether the possible Western failure to provide written guarantees would impinge on the conclusion of the Vienna talks. “I’m not authorized to make predictions. Only the heads of the negotiating delegations in Vienna and the high-ranking officials in Moscow are in the know about this,” he said.

 

Iran welcomes US sanctions move but terms these insufficient

The steps taken by the United States on lifting sanctions are ‘good but not enough’, Iran said following Washington’s announcement it was waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program.

The US action came as talks to restore a 2015 deal between Tehran and world powers over its nuclear program reached an advanced stage, with the issue of sanctions relief a major issue.

“The lifting of some sanctions can, in the true sense of the word, translate into their goodwill. Americans talk about it, but it should be known that what happens on paper is good but not enough,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, quoted by ISNA news agency.

The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also reflected Tehran’s view that the US move falls short.

“Real, effective and verifiable economic benefit for Iran is a necessary condition for the formation of an agreement,” Ali Shamkhani said in a tweet.

“The show of lifting sanctions is not considered a constructive effort.”

The US State Department said on Friday it was waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program in a technical step necessary to return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

Former US President, Donald Trump withdrew from the pact in 2018 and re-imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, prompting the Islamic Republic to begin pulling back from its commitments under the deal.

The waiver allows other countries and companies to participate in Iran’s civil nuclear program without triggering US sanctions on them, in the name of promoting safety and non-proliferation.

Iran’s civil program includes growing stockpiles of enriched uranium.

Amir-Abdollahian reiterated that one of the main issues in the JCPOA talks is obtaining guarantees that the US will not withdraw from the 2015 deal again.

“We seek and demand guarantees in the political, legal and economic sectors,” he said, adding “agreements have been reached in some areas”.

Iran is negotiating with Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia directly and with the US indirectly in the Vienna talks, which different parties say have reached a stage where the sides have to make important political decisions.

“Our negotiating team in the Vienna talks is seriously pursuing obtaining tangible guarantees from the West to fulfill their commitments,” said Amir-Abdollahian.

Foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said, “Iran is carefully considering any action that is in the right direction of fulfilling the obligations of the JCPOA”, Iranian media reported.

The European parties to the talks urged Iran to seize the opportunity of the US waivers.

“This should facilitate technical discussions necessary to support talks on JCPOA return in Vienna,” negotiators of Britain, France and Germany said in a joint statement on Saturday.

“We urge Iran to take quick advantage of this opportunity, because the timing of the waiver underscores the view we share with the US, we have very little time left to bring JCPOA talks to a successful conclusion.”

Russia offered Iran interim nuclear deal

Iran was offered an interim nuclear agreement by Russia with the knowledge of the United States. Citing numerous former and current US officials, NBC reported that Iran rejected Russia's interim proposal, which was reportedly given the go-ahead by the Biden administration.

One draft of Russia's proposed interim agreement would have seen the Islamic Republic forced to stop enriching uranium up to 60%. In addition, Iran would have had to dispose of its existing stockpile of enriched uranium.

In exchange, certain sanctions would have been lifted that meant Iran could have gained access to billions of dollars frozen in foreign bank accounts, including South Korea, where the US permitted to pay damages owed to an Iranian company in a move seen as a trust-building step.

However, Iran rejected Russia's proposal and the US distanced itself from Russia's attempts at an interim agreement, according to the report.

Earlier, the Islamic Republic denied a report it had reached a two-year interim agreement with world powers. An interim arrangement is not under serious discussion, NBC reported, citing a senior Biden administration official.

"Though we cannot speak for any discussions that may have taken place between Russia and Iran, at this stage we are certain that no such interim arrangement is being seriously discussed," the official reportedly said.

Russia's attempt at reaching an interim deal with Iran comes a day after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke with his American counterpart Antony Blinken, when the latter warned that talks with Iran have reached "a decisive moment."

Blinken said that, while the window of opportunity to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) still exists, Iran's nuclear advancements would foil any return to the accord if a fresh pact was not reached in the coming weeks.

Other voices around the negotiation table seem more optimistic, with a European Union official saying on Friday that the Vienna talks are moving in the right direction and a final agreement may be within reach. Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the deal resumed almost two months ago

Is United States seeking Israel approval for Iran nuclear talks?

A senior official in the administration of the US President Joe Biden disclosed that National Security adviser Jake Sullivan will visit Israel this week for detailed discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on the Vienna talks regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Sullivan will be joined by the National Security Council's Middle East director Brett McGurk among other US officials. They will also meet with Palestinian President Mohammed Abbas in the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah to discuss strengthening relations with the Palestinians.

The Palestinian Authority ceased contact with the previous US administration saying it was no longer a fair broker in the so-called peace process. Observers have very little hope Biden can achieve anything to bring peace to the conflict. They say the visit to Ramallah is just a stunt.

Experts say the trip is more than likely to be dominated by the Vienna talks where Iran and the P4+1 group of parties are engaged in talks on a possible return to the original format of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed in 2015.

Negotiators are reporting slow progress at the talks in Vienna which are aimed at lifting the illegal US sanctions imposed on Iran after the former administration of President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the UN backed agreement.

The Biden administration official speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said the US and Israeli officials will talk about how they see the coming weeks unfolding with Iran.

"We will talk about where we see Iran's nuclear program and some of the timelines," the official said. "It will be a good opportunity to sit down face-to-face and talk about the state of the talks, the timeframe in which we are working, and to re-emphasize that we don't have much time."

Many analysts have said that the back and forth flights between Washington and Tel Aviv during the Vienna talks on Iran show the Israeli regime is taking the lead role in America’s position to the Iran Nuclear Deal and Biden is anything but the Commander in Chief here, let alone serving America’s interests.

Iran thwarts attempt by United States to detain an oil tanker

In a major act of defiance, Iran announced Wednesday that it had foiled a US attempt to confiscate Iranian oil in the Sea of Oman, setting the stage for further Iranian defensive acts to protect its oil exports in the face of growing threats from the US to restrict Iran’s oil trade. 

The naval forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) have launched a daring operation to protect Iran’s oil export after American forces confiscated a giant Iranian oil tanker in the Sea of Oman and transshipped its oil shipment to another oil tanker, the Iranian state media said on Wednesday. 

According to Iran’s state-run TV, the IRGC navy forces conducted a heliborne operation to return the seized oil cargo to Iran. The IRGC troops landed onboard the oil tanker carrying the seized oil and led it into Iran’s territorial waters. 

In the meantime, US forces sent several helicopters and destroyers in a bid to retake the oil tanker but the IRGC navy prevented them from doing so, according to Iranian media. 

The US made another effort to prevent Iran from taking the oil tanker but failed. 

The oil tanker is now in Iran’s territorial waters. Iranian media offered no further detail as to when the encounter happened and which country the seized oil tanker belongs to. 

The IRGC media office confirmed the encounter in a statement on Wednesday and said the oil tanker has docked at a Bandar Abbas port. The statement described the US move as “robbery.”

The United States has remained silent on Iran’s announcement. Of course, a US military official to Al-Jazeera, “The allegations of the Revolutionary Guard Corps about the Iranian oil tanker are not true.”

But the IRGC said it had “clear, telling, and undeniable images of the encounter” that would be shared with mass media. 

The episode marked the first time Iran and the U.S. engaged in a tense encounter since Joe Biden took office nearly a year ago. It also came against a backdrop of heightened tensions between Iran and the West over when to resume the stalled Vienna nuclear talks on how to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

On October 27, Iran said the Vienna talks will begin before the end of November. It also said on Monday the exact date for resuming the talks will be announced this week. 

While Iran’s return to Vienna remains under consideration, Washington and allies in Europe and the region ramped up their pressures on Iran both diplomatically and now economically. 

On the other hand, Iran called on the US to provide “objective guarantees” that Washington won’t renege on its commitments under a revived nuclear deal with Iran again.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh described US administrations as “rogue regimes” that are not reliable to work with. 

“Onus is on @POTUS to convince int'l community—incl all JCPOA participants—that his signature means something. For that, ‘objective guarantees’ needed. No one would accept anything less,” Khatibzadeh said on Twitter. 

But it seems that the US has refrained from offering such guarantees. The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, likened the current state of play between Iran and the US to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. 

“The attacks from Saddam were in progress / the sanctions continue. Part of Iran was under the enemy’s occupation / the Iranian nation’s economy has been held hostage. The combatants were defending (Iran) in the front line / The scientists proceed with the legal nuclear activities,” he said on Twitter. 

Just as Saddam Hussein when he offered to hold negotiations with Iran, Shamkhani continued, President Biden too, is not repentant for his policy on Iran. And he is not willing to offer guarantees, the top Iranian security official added. 

“In case the current situation does not change, the result of negotiations would be clear in advance,” he warned. 

Shamkhani’s remarks, along with reports of a hike in Iran’s oil exports in recent months that seem to be the main reason behind the latest encounter, were the latest sign that the resumption of negotiations between Iran and the West won’t affect Iran’s active resistance policy adopted after former US President Donald Trump launched his “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. 

US foreign policy held hostage by Israel

Some might recall US Presidential candidate, Joe Biden’s pledge to work to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was a multilateral agreement intended to limit Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon.

The JCPOA was signed by President Barack Obama in 2015, when Biden was Vice President and was considered one of the only foreign policy successes of his eight years in office.

Other signatories to it were Britain, China, Germany, France, and Russia and it was endorsed by the United Nations. The agreement included unannounced inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities by the IAEA and, by all accounts, it was working and was a non-proliferation success story.

In return for its cooperation Iran was to receive its considerable assets frozen in banks in the United States and was also to be relieved of the sanctions that had been placed on it by Washington and other governments.

The JCPOA crashed and burned in 2018 when President Donald Trump ordered US withdrawal from the agreement, claiming that Iran was cheating and would surely move to develop a nuclear weapon as soon as the first phase of the agreement was completed.

Trump, whose ignorance on Iran and other international issues was profound, had surrounded himself with a totally Zionist foreign policy team, including members of his own family, and had bought fully into the arguments being made by Israel as well as by Israel Lobby predominantly Jewish groups to include the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

Trump’s time in office was spent pandering to Israel in every conceivable way, to include recognizing Jerusalem as the country’s capital, granting Israel the green light for creating and expanding illegal settlements on the West Bank and recognizing the occupied Syrian Golan Heights as part of Israel.

Given Trump’s record, most particularly the senseless and against-American-interests abandonment of JCPOA, it almost seemed a breath of fresh air to hear Biden’s fractured English as he committed his administration to doing what he could to rejoin the other countries who were still trying to make the agreement work.

After Biden was actually elected, more or less, he and his Secretary of State Tony Blinken clarified what the US would seek to do to fix the agreement by making it stronger in some key areas that had not been part of the original document.

Iran for its part insisted that the agreement did not need any additional caveats and should be a return to the status quo ante, particularly when Blinken and his team made clear that they were thinking of a ban on Iranian ballistic missile development as well as negotiations to end Tehran’s alleged interference in the politics of the region.

The interference presumably referred to Iranian support of the Palestinians as well as its role in Syria and Yemen, all of which had earned the hostility of American friends Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Israel inevitably stirred the pot by sending a stream of senior officials, to include Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to discuss the Iranian threat with Biden and his top officials. Lapid made clear that Israel reserves the right to act at any given moment, in any way… We know there are moments when nations must use force to protect the world from evil. And to be sure, Biden, like Trump, has also made his true sentiments clear by surrounding himself with Zionists. Blinken, Wendy Sherman and Victoria Nuland have filled the three top slots at State Department; all are Jewish and all strong on Israel.

Nuland is a leading neocon. And pending is the appointment of Barbara Leaf, who has been nominated Assistant Secretary to head the State Department’s Near East region. She is currently the Ruth and Sid Lapidus Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), which is an AIPAC spin off and a major component in the Israel Lobby. That means that a member in good standing of the Israel Lobby would serve as the State Department official overseeing American policy in the Middle East.

At the Pentagon one finds a malleable General Mark Milley, always happy to meet his Israeli counterparts, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, an affirmative action promotion who likewise has become adept at parroting the line “Israel has a right to defend itself.” And need one mention ardent self-declared Zionists at the top level of the Democratic Party, to include Biden himself, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and, of course, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer?

Rejoining the JCPOA over Israel objections was a non-starter from the beginning and was probably only mooted to make Trump look bad. Indirect talks including both Iran and the US technically have continued in Vienna, though they have been stalled since the end of June.

Trita Parsi has recently learned that Iran sought to make a breakthrough for an agreement by seeking a White House commitment to stick with the plan as long as Biden remains in office. Biden and Blinken refused and Blinken has recently confirmed that a new deal is unlikely, saying time is running out.

There have been some other new developments. Israeli officials have been warning for over twenty years that Iran is only one year away from having its own nukes and needs to be stopped, a claim that has begun to sound like a religious mantra repeated over and over, but now they are actually funding the armaments that will be needed to do the job.

Israeli Defense Force Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi has repeatedly said the IDF is accelerating plans to strike Iran and Israeli politicians, including former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have regularly been threatening to do whatever must be done to deal with the threat from Iran. Israeli media is reporting that US$1.5 billion has been allocated in the current and upcoming budget to buy the American bunker buster bombs that will be needed to destroy the Iranian reactor at Bushehr and its underground research facilities at Natanz.

In the wake of the news about the war funding, there have also been reports that the Israeli Air Force is engaging in what is being described as intense drills to simulate attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

After Israel obtains the 5000 pound bunker buster bombs, it will also need to procure bombers to drop the ordnance, and one suspects that the US Congress will come up with the necessary military aid to make that happen. Tony Blinken has also made clear that the Administration knows what Israel is planning and approves. He met with Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on October 13, 2021 and said if diplomacy with Iran fails, the US will turn to other options. He followed that up with the venerable line that Israel has the right to defend itself and we strongly support that proposition.

Lapid confirmed that one of Blinken’s options was military action. “I would like to start by repeating what the Secretary of State just said.  Yes, other options are going to be on the table if diplomacy fails. Eeverybody understands what does that mean. It must be observed that in their discussion of Iran’s nuclear program, Lapid and Blinnken were endorsing an illegal and unprovoked attack to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon that it is apparently not seeking, but which it will surely turn to as a consequence if only to defend itself in the future.

In short, US foreign policy is yet again being held hostage by Israel. The White House position is clearly and absurdly that an Israeli attack on Iran, considered a war crime by most, is an act of self-defense. However it turns out, the US will be seen as endorsing the crime and will inevitably be implicated in it, undoubtedly resulting in yet another foreign policy disaster in the Middle East with nothing but grief. The simple truth is that Iran has neither threatened nor attacked Israel.

Given that, there is nothing defensive about the actions Israel has already taken in sabotaging Iranian facilities and assassinating scientists, and there would be nothing defensive about direct military attacks either with or without US assistance on Iranian soil. If Israel chooses to play the fool it is on them and their leaders. The United States does not have a horse in this race and should butt out, but one doubt if a White House and Congress, firmly controlled by Zionist forces, have either the wisdom or the courage to cut the tie that binds with the Jewish state.

 

Israel’s warning to United States or declaration of war against Iran

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi warned the United States officials against rejoining the Iranian nuclear deal. He is visiting Washington to discuss the threat posed by Tehran’s nuclear program.

“The Chief of the General Staff emphasized the shortcomings of the current nuclear agreement, which will allow Iran to make significant progress related to centrifuges as well as to substantially enhance the amount and quality of enriched matter over the next few years, also emphasizing the lack of supervision in terms of nuclear proliferation,” the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said in a statement.

Israel’s top military officer explained the threat created by returning to the original nuclear agreement and emphasized that all measures should be taken to prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities.

Kohavi is in Washington on a four-day visit and is holding meetings with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, Head of the US Central Command Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, and Head of the US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) Gen. Richard Clark.

In light of the close alliance between Israel and the United States, it is rare for a chief of staff to make public remarks about political issues or to criticize the foreign policies of allies.

But Kohavi has made it clear that he views the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as dangerous, saying in January that he has directed the IDF to prepare fresh operational plans to strike Iran in order to stop its nuclear program if necessary.

“Iran can decide that it wants to advance to a bomb, either covertly or in a provocative way. In light of this basic analysis, I have ordered the IDF to prepare a number of operational plans, in addition to the existing ones. We are studying these plans and we will develop them over the next year,” Kohavi said in a speech at the Institute for National Security Studies think tank’s annual conference.

 “The government will of course be the one to decide if they should be used. But these plans must be on the table, in existence and trained for,” he added.

During his trip, which is his first as Israel’s top military officer, he is meeting with his American counterparts to discuss common security challenges in the region, including issues related to the threat posed by the Iranian nuclear project, Tehran’s attempt to entrench itself in the Middle East, Hezbollah’s attempts to strengthen itself and the consequences of the Lebanese terror group’s precision missile project.

The leaders also discussed the challenges and related responses in the Palestinian arena, focusing on the Gaza Strip. Kohavi also presented the military’s main takeaways from Operation Guardian of the Walls.

His visit to Washington that was scheduled to take place in April was postponed due to the fighting with Hamas and other groups in the Gaza Strip. 

Will Ebrahim Raisi be next President of Iran?

Ebrahim Raisi, from the hard-liner camp, is being termed handpicked candidate of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for the position of President as well as eventual pick to succeed himself. His positive statement toward Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) turned many heads. The front-runner and Judiciary Chief, Raisi has embraced the possibility of returning to the 2015 nuclear deal as long as Iran’s interests are met.

Raisi made the statement in a series of presidential debates that have been taking place since last week in the lead up to Presidential Election scheduled for 18th June 2021.

A mark of his campaign has been Iranian self-resilience and the “resistance economy” having the ability to overcome American sanctions by producing more critical items for everyday life domestically.

In general, Raisi has slammed current President Hassan Rouhani and his pragmatist camp as being too compromising with the United States and the West.

In contrast, his recent statement that he would not oppose a return to the JCPOA in the right circumstances is not that different from Rouhani and pragmatist policy.

The main difference between the hard-liner and pragmatist camp may simply be a matter of months.

If Rouhani would have preferred a return to the deal before the 18th June Election, both to enhance his legacy and to empower another pragmatist candidate, the latest predictions are that Raisi and Khamenei prefer that a deal wait until August, when the new president would take office.

Raisi’s somewhat pro-JCPOA statement was also noteworthy as in an earlier debate he had been criticized for undermining relations with the West and his response had evaded addressing the JCPOA as an issue head-on.

His follow-up answer in a later debate could signal a clear process to prepare the hard-liner base for compromising with the West and the US in substance, even if the tone will continue to be one of conflict.

During the presidential election of 2017, Raisi made some similar election season statements moderating his stance that he would abide by the JCPOA despite his and the hard-liners’ frequent criticism of talks with the West.

However, in that election Rouhani defeated Raisi, who came in second place with almost 16 million votes, or close to 40% of actual voters.

This time, Khamenei’s Guardian Council disqualified all viable contenders from rival camps who could have beaten Raisi, including even the current vice president and a former parliamentary speaker, reportedly to guarantee his victory.

None of the six other candidates approved to run are viewed as serious national contenders and the debates are viewed by many Iranians as going through the motions.

Experts predict the election turnout could be an all-time low, but by holding debates with six other candidates and making positive statements about the JCPOA, the hard-liners appear to be trying to build Raisi’s legitimacy to some degree.

What could be likely quantum of Iranian oil exports even if United States eases sanctions?

According to some of the analysts, one of the reasons for lingering imposition of sanctions on Iran by the United States is pressure of large oil producers from the Middle East. Thanks to Israel which has drilled into their minds, “Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel”.

As Joe Biden seems adamant at joining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), anti Iran elements have once again started talking about adverse impacts of re-entry of Iran in oil trade.

Fitch Solutions, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, which is one of three biggest credit rating agencies of United States, has forecasted a 6.8% growth in Iranian oil exports in 2021 if the US comes back to the 2015 nuclear deal.

In one of its latest reports dubbed “Iran Oil and Gas Report”, Fitch has stated that crude oil exports of Iran would double in 2022 compared to 2020.

“The prospects for the Iranian oil sector have brightened significantly following Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election, He has indicated re-entry of the US into the Iranian nuclear deal, paving the way for a roll-back of secondary sanctions and recovery of around 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) in oil production,” the report said.

Fitch also stated that Iranian gas production is also expected to rise in the coming years considering the new developments in the country’s giant South Pars gas field that Iran shares with Qatar in the Persian Gulf.

“However, Iran needs to find new export markets in neighboring countries to maximize the productivity of the new output capacities,” the report reads.

Fitch further mentioned development of the Iranian oil and gas industry’s downstream sectors saying, “The outlook on the downstream is relatively robust, with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) making continued investments to expand and upgrade its refined fuels production, and with a robust demand outlook for both oil and gas as the market recovers from the combined effects of Covid-19 and US nuclear related sanctions.”

Also, the study of the risk index of the upstream sectors of the country’s oil and gas industry in this report shows that, given the huge oil and gas resources, these sectors are reasonable options for investment in the country.

According to the report, Iran ranks fourth among 12 countries in the region in terms of the oil and gas industry’s risk-return index, while the country occupies 20th place among the world’s top 72 oil-producing countries.

Iranian oil production and exports have been both increasing over the past few months despite the US sanctions. Iranian Oil Ministry has announced its readiness for boosting the country’s crude oil output to the pre-sanction levels in case of the US rejoining JCPOA.

Back in January this year, the data from SVB International and two other firms indicated that Iranian oil exports were climbing in January after a boost in the fourth quarter despite US sanctions.

Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia had said earlier that the country started boosting its oil production and would be able to reach pre-sanction levels within two months.

Iranian oil won’t create any surplus in the oil market and the market will be able to accommodate the country’s maximum oil output of around 3.9 million to four million barrels a day, Bloomberg quoted Zamaninia as saying on the sidelines of the Iran Oil Show in Tehran in late January.

 

Can Russia and China restore balance to JCPOA?

As the United States doubles down on its diplomatic effort to reach a common consensus with Europe on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, pundits raise speculation on how the European Union, particularly EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell, can save the day by setting the stage for Iran and the US to ultimately implement the nuclear deal in full.

These pundits rarely point to the fact that the European signatories to the nuclear deal – Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – have lost the neutrality needed to act as a go-between since Joe Biden won the US presidential election in November. The Europeans are now harboring even more hawkish views than Washington itself.

During the Trump administration, the European parties to the JCPOA – France, Germany and the UK (E3) – had been calling on Iran to fully implement the nuclear deal in the hope that Trump would lose the presidential election and then they will revive the JCPOA in collaboration with a more favorite Democratic administration.

Trump lost the election and was replaced by someone who had played a direct role in negotiating the JCPOA in the first place. But the Europeans were quick to renege on their promise to salvage the nuclear deal. They called for a new negotiation with Iran after Biden assumed office, one that would expand the JCPOA and add other thorny issues such as Iran’s defensive missile program and its regional activities to it.

The top diplomats of the E3 and the US reiterated this position during a recnt joint meeting.

“The E3 welcomed the prospect of a US and Iranian return to compliance with the JCPOA. The E3 and the United States affirmed their determination to then strengthen the JCPOA and, together with regional parties and the wider international community, address broader security concerns related to Iran’s missile programs and regional activities. We are committed to working together toward these goals,” the chief diplomats said in a joint statement after the meeting.

The Europeans are now planning an informal meeting of all JCPOA participants and the US. Citing a European official, Reuters said that the date of this meeting is yet to be set.  The official also pointed to a US willingness to accept an invitation from the EU to participate in a meeting of the P5+1.

Earlier, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said Washington was willing to attend a meeting of the P5+1, although the US is not a member of this group of major world powers.

“The United States would accept an invitation from the European Union High Representative to attend a meeting of the P5+1 and Iran to discuss a diplomatic way forward on Iran's nuclear program,” Price noted, referring to the UN Security Council's five permanent members and Germany.

Price’s remarks signified a U.S. desire to walk into the P4+1 with the help of the E3 even before lifting its sanctions on Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reminded the West that the US is still not a JCPOA member and the only way to get the JCPOA membership is to lift sanctions.

Because of US withdrawal from JCPOA, there is NO P5+1. It is now only Iran and P4+1. Remember, Trump left the room and tried to blow it up. Gestures are fine. But to revive P5+1, US must act lift sanctions. We will respond, Khatibzadeh said on Friday.

But while the E3 tries to sneak the US in the JCPOA without lifting the sanctions, two JCPOA parties, namely China and Russia, can ensure that the US would rejoin the nuclear deal after correcting the mistakes Trump made against Iran.

China took a step in this regard by saying that US should unconditionally return to the JCPOA and lift all sanctions.

Speaking at a news conference, China’s Foreign Ministry Hua Chunying said, “Currently the Iranian nuclear issue is at a critical stage with both opportunities and challenges. China holds that the return of the United States to the JCPOA is the only correct approach to resolve the impasse on this issue. All parties should act with greater urgency, work together to implement consensus reached at the foreign ministers' meeting last December, and push for the unconditional return of the United States to the JCPOA as soon as possible and the lifting of all sanctions on Iran. On its part, Iran should resume full compliance with the JCPOA. In the meantime, we call on all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint, avoid taking actions that will escalate the situation and reserve space for diplomatic efforts.”

Russia, for its part, reminded the West why the JCPOA ended up a failed deal. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, has welcomed a US decision to rescind the Trump administration’s restoration of all UN sanctions on Iran in September.

Peskov also said that the main reason for the non-implementation of the JCPOA is the sanctions pressure that the US put on Iran.

Also, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS that Iran cannot be suspected of carrying out a covert nuclear weapons program as the E3 and the US ramped up pressure on Iran, accusing it of pursuing nuclear activities that have no civil justifications.

“We have always said and are saying now that a state, which has an agreement on comprehensive guarantees with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and which has been committed to this deal - and Iran has such an agreement, and a state, which has been fully observing the JCPOA for a long time, cannot be suspected of carrying out a covert program on weaponization in the nuclear field,” Ryabkov noted.

With the E3 working to pave the way for a US return to the JCPOA without lifting the sanctions, Russia and China have a unique opportunity to ensure that the dispute around the JCPOA is resolved reasonably. They need to make it clear to the West that a dispute settled unfairly is bound to break out in the not-so-distant future.

US must lift curbs before Iran rejoins deal; Khamenei announces final and irreversible decision

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that Tehran’s “final and irreversible” decision was to return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal only if Washington lifts sanctions on the Islamic Republic, Iranian state TV reported.

The deal between Iran and six major powers limited Iran’s uranium enrichment activity to make it harder for Tehran to develop nuclear arms - an ambition Iran has long denied having - in return for the easing of the US and other sanctions.

It may be recalled that former US President Donald Trump had abandoned the deal in 2018, denouncing it as one-sided in Iran’s favour, and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.

“Iran has fulfilled all its obligations under the deal, not the United States and the three European countries ... If they want Iran to return to its commitments, the United States must in practice ... lift all sanctions,” state TV quoted Khamenei as saying in a meeting with Air Force commanders.

“Then, after verifying whether all sanctions have been lifted correctly, we will return to full compliance ... It is the irreversible and final decision and all Iranian officials have consensus over it.”

Western media has been saying that in response to Trump’s withdrawal, Tehran has breached the deal’s key limits one after the other, building up its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, refining uranium to a higher level of purity and using advanced centrifuges for enrichment.

US President Joe Biden, who took oath last month, has said that if Tehran returned to strict compliance with the pact, Washington would follow the suit and use that as a springboard to a broader agreement that might restrict Iran’s missile development and regional activities.

Iran has repeatedly said it could quickly reverse those violations if US sanctions are removed but has ruled out any talks over the country’s ballistic missile programme and Tehran’s influence in the Middle East, where Iran and Saudi Arabia have been involved in proxy wars for decades.

Robert Malley appointment as Iran envoy attracts mixed response

Joe Biden has named Robert Malley as special envoy for Iran. He was a key member of former President Barack Obama's team that negotiated the nuclear accord with Iran and world powers, an agreement that Donald Trump abandoned in 2018, despite strong opposition from Washington's European allies.

Malley’s appointment puts him at the forefront of Biden's efforts to find a way to deal with Iran after years of worsening relations under former President Donald Trump, who not only pulled out of a 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran, but also re-imposed crippling economic sanctions.

When Malley's name first surfaced in news reports as a leading candidate for the post, he drew criticism from some Republican lawmakers and pro-Israel groups who expressed concern that he would be soft on Iran and tough on Israel, but a number of foreign policy veterans rushed to his defense.

It's a positive sign from Biden that he's really willing to revitalize American diplomacy. For too long, US foreign policy has been militarily very muscular, but diplomatically very weak," Sina Toossi, a senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) told Middle East Eye.

Toossi said the humiliations that Iran had faced in recent years - including the US departure from the JCPOA, the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh - make it difficult for the Iranian government to take the first step towards reviving the JCPOA.

Matt Duss, a foreign-policy adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, lauded Biden for refusing to back down in the face of attacks against Malley's candidacy.

"Great news, there's no one better than Rob to make this policy succeed, which is why the hardliners didn't like the pick," Duss wrote on Twitter. "Also very good that Biden stood strong with this choice and disregarded their smear campaign. It won't be their last."

Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, also praised the announcement, calling the nomination "great news". "Malley is a highly skilled and thoughtful negotiator with extensive knowledge and an empathic disposition - literally the polar opposite of every member of the previous administration’s Middle East team of clowns," Elgindy said in a Twitter post.

Senator Tom Cotton, a staunch conservative, had led criticism against Malley, accusing him of being sympathetic to the Iranian government and having "animus towards Israel".

Malley is an American lawyer, political scientist and specialist in conflict resolution, who was the lead negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He being once again tasked to bring the United States and Iran into compliance with the Iran deal abandoned by President Trump.

Previously, Malley was President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, a Washington, DC, committed to preventing wars. Prior to holding that title, he served at the National Security Council under Barack Obama from February 2014 until January 2017.

In 2015, the Obama administration appointed Rob Malley as its "point man" on the Middle East, leading the Middle East desk of the National Security Council. In November 2015, Malley was named as President Obama's new special ISIS advisor.

Malley is considered, by some, to be an expert on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and has written extensively on this subject advocating rapprochement with Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood. As Special Assistant to President Clinton, he was a member of the US peace team and helped organize the 2000 Camp David Summit.

Malley was criticized by supporters of Israel after co-authoring an article in the July 8, 2001 edition of The New York Review of Books arguing that the blame for the failure of the 2000 Camp David Summit should be divided among all three leaders who were present at the summit, Arafat, Barak, and Bill Clinton, not just Arafat, as was suggested by some mainstream policy analysts. Later, other scholars and former officials voiced views similar to those of Malley.

Malley and his views have come under attack from other critics, such as Martin Peretz of the magazine The New Republic, who has opined that Malley is "anti-Israel", a "rabid hater of Israel. No question about it” and that several of his articles in the New York Review of Books were "deceitful."

On the conservative webzine The American Thinker, Ed Lasky asserted that Malley "represents the next generation of anti-Israel activism."

 

 

 

 

  

Israel wish list for a new Iran Nuclear Deal

Ensuring US President Joe Biden administration works to fully and effectively prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is the first priority for Israel. If the Biden administration enters into talks with Iran, Israel wishes to ensure the weak points of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers are left out of the new deal.

Those include removing the sunset clauses, which gradually removed sanctions and limitations on uranium enrichment, such that Iran would have been able to develop a nuclear weapon in 2030 under the terms of the JCPOA.

Another Israeli priority is “anywhere, anytime inspections” of Iran nuclear sites, as opposed to Tehran being forewarned as the deal currently requires.

Those are far more important to Israel than something members of the Biden administration and some Israeli media reports have suggested: to add clauses to the JCPOA to stop Iran’s ballistic missile program and malign activities in the region. Israel believes Iran must not have a right to enrich uranium under whatever future framework is reached.

Israel is preparing a plan to counter Biden administration’s intention to negotiate a return to the Iran deal. As reported in The Jerusalem Post earlier, the security cabinet has not met to discuss the matter, but the senior government source said a smaller forum of top ministers will likely determine overall strategy.

In recent weeks, Biden administration officials have said talk of rejoining the JCPOA is premature, and that they plan to speak with allies in the region, Israel among them, before negotiating with Iran. Israel is reassured by those remarks, and that Israel is not looking for a fight with Biden. Rather, Israeli officials prefer that there be conversations behind closed doors between top officials.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to seek an in-person meeting with Biden in the coming months. Such a meeting between the Israeli prime minister and the new US president is customary during the first few months of a new administration in Washington in recent decades, but has even greater urgency due to the administration’s Iran policies. However, Biden may not want to meet with Netanyahu before the March 23 election in order not to appear like he is taking sides.

Nine hurdles to revitalizing JCPOA

A West Asia security and nuclear policy specialist at Princeton University, has enumerated nine hurdles to revitalizing Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nuclear deal that Iran signed with 5+1 nations - five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany - in July 2015.

Seyed Hossein Mousavian points that “snapback” mechanism in JCPOA favors 5+1 nations only. “The ‘snapback’ mechanism built into the agreement allows any country to force the UN Security Council to reimpose multilateral sanctions against Iran if Iran fails to fulfill its commitments. But this is one-sided: There is no such remedy for Iran if other parties fail to do their part,” Mousavian writes.

The article was published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on 19th January 2021, one day before Joe Biden officially sworn in as President of United States.

Following is the text of the article titled “Nine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal”:

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on 8th January 2021 that Tehran was in no rush for the United States to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but, he also said, sanctions on Iran must be lifted immediately.

“If the sanctions are lifted, the return of the Americans makes sense,” he insisted. President-elect Joe Biden has announced his plan to return to the deal soon after he is sworn into office. “If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal,” he wrote in an op-ed for CNN, “the United States would rejoin.” His Iranian counterpart, President Hassan Rouhani, has also expressed willingness to return to the deal, stating that, “Iran could come into compliance with the agreement within an hour of the United States doing so.”

Five years ago, after years of intensive negotiations, six world powers managed to sign the world’s most comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran. While the agreement was a political one, it was also ratified by the UN Security Council in Resolution 2231. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the organization tasked with verifying the agreement’s technical aspects, Iran was fully complying with the deal for about three years, until President Trump withdrew from it in May 2018. In response to the US violations of the nuclear agreement, Iran too reduced some of its commitments. Most recently, on 4th January2021, Iran announced that it had increased its uranium enrichment levels to 20 percent. Although reviving the agreement is certainly still possible, it won’t be easy. The two sides will need to overcome nine hurdles to make it happen:

First, the sequencing of a mutual return could be an immediate problem. Iran expects the United States to lift sanctions first, because it was the Trump administration that withdrew first. While Tehran’s demand is legitimate, Washington may ask that Iran come into full compliance before lifting sanctions. Indeed, a straightforward reading of the quotation from Joe Biden’s op-ed suggests just that. In this scenario, after Joe Biden’s executive order rejoining the deal, Iran and the world powers can meet and agree on a realistic plan with a specified timeline of proportionate reciprocal actions.

Second is the issue of what compliance constitutes. During the Obama administration there was one major barrier to the full realization of the terms of the agreement: Many primary sanctions, targeting US citizens and permanent residents, organizations, and individuals that engage in trade and business with their Iranian counterparts, remained intact. These sanctions limited the economic benefits of the deal for Iran. The 29th paragraph of the deal clearly states that all signatories will refrain from any policy specifically intended to directly and adversely affect the normalization of trade and economic relations with Iran. This cannot be achieved without abolishing the primary sanctions.

Third, the Trump administration imposed numerous sanctions against Iran under the guise of terrorism and human rights, aimed at preventing the Biden administration from returning to the deal. For a clean implementation of the agreement, Biden will need to remove all of these sanctions as well.

Fourth, Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement and violation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 as well as other international commitments has damaged US credibility abroad. There is now a widespread belief among policy makers in Iran that the United States will simply not live up to its end of the bargain, no matter what that bargain is. This naturally raises the important question: What guarantees are there that the United States will remain committed to the deal in the post-Biden era?

Fifth, because of Trump’s maximum pressure policy, the Iranian economy has suffered hundreds of billions of dollars of losses, while Iran was in full compliance with the terms and conditions of the deal. Some Iranian leaders, including Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, have demanded compensation for the economic damage the country suffered after the United States withdrew. The challenge will be to find a mechanism to compensate for the economic damages that the Trump administration inflicted on the Iranian economy.

Sixth, the “snapback” mechanism built into the agreement allows any country to force the UN Security Council to reimpose multilateral sanctions against Iran if Iran fails to fulfill its commitments. But this is one-sided: There is no such remedy for Iran if other parties fail to do their part. This became abundantly clear when the Trump administration first withdrew from the deal and then tried to unilaterally re-impose multilateral sanctions on Iran through the snapback mechanism. It was as if the injurer was demanding punishment for the injured. Although the UN Security Council rejected the US demand, the stunt revealed the structural flaw of the snapback.

Seventh, in the first week of December 2020, the Iranian parliament passed a bill mandating Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization to resume enriching uranium to 20 percent purity. The legislation also requires the Iranian government to cease voluntary implementation of the IAEA’s Additional Protocol within two months of the bill’s enactment if the other signatories fail to fully deliver on their commitments under the agreement. And after three months, the Atomic Energy Organization is obliged to begin using at least 1,000-second-generation centrifuges. In short, president-elect Biden will need to move fast.

Eighth, there were some in the United States who were worried that Trump may start a reckless last-ditch war with Iran before leaving office. While this concern is overblown, there should be no doubt that US partners in the region will do whatever they can to prevent Biden’s return to the deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already said as much. To be sure, the hardliners in Iran are also fundamentally opposed to the deal.

Ninth, some pundits and politicians in Washington want Biden to leverage the Trump administration’s sanctions to pressure Iran to accept additional commitments beyond the original agreement as a condition for US return to compliance. These include limiting Iran’s missile capability, extending the “sunset” clauses within the deal, or resolving regional disputes. But from Iran’s perspective, such demands are a non-starter. As the spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry said recently, “No negotiation has been, is being, or will be held about Iran’s defense power.”

Despite these hurdles, Biden should nevertheless seek re-entry into the deal. Only a clean and full implementation by all parties can save the world’s most comprehensive nuclear agreement, contain rising US-Iran tensions, and open the path toward more confidence building measures. That path should include, upon Biden’s issuing an executive order to rejoin the JCPOA, the creation of a working committee of parties to the agreement tasked with ensuring full compliance by all signatories, and a forum, organized by the UN Secretary General, in which Iran and the Persian Gulf countries can discuss a new structure for improving security and cooperation in the region.