Netanyahu eyes Iran, his arch foe

According to Reuters, 2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is set to cement his strategic goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions and capitalizing on the dismantling of Tehran's allies - Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Assad's collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah and the destruction of their military structure mark a succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu.

Without Syria, the alliances Tehran has nurtured for decades have unraveled. As Iran's influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the dominant power in the region.

Netanyahu is poised to zero in on Iran's nuclear ambitions and missile program, applying an unyielding focus to dismantling and neutralizing these strategic threats to Israel.

Iran, Middle East observers say, faces a stark choice: Either continue its nuclear enrichment program or scale back its atomic activities and agree to negotiations.

"Iran is very vulnerable to an Israeli attack, particularly against its nuclear program," said Joost R. Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa Program Director of the International Crisis Group. "I wouldn't be surprised if Israel did it, but that doesn't get rid of Iran."

"If they (Iranians) do not back down, Trump and Netanyahu might strike, as nothing now prevents them," said Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib, referring to President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib argued that the Iranian leadership, having demonstrated pragmatism in the past, may be willing to compromise to avert a military confrontation.

Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear goals, is likely to step up sanctions on Iran's oil industry, despite calls to return to negotiations from critics who see diplomacy as a more effective long-term policy.

Amid the turmoil of Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a defining role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, Netanyahu took the stand in proceedings that have bitterly divided Israelis.

With 2024 coming to an end, the Israeli prime minister will likely agree to sign a ceasefire accord with Hamas to halt the 14-month-old Gaza war and free Israeli hostages held in the enclave, according to sources close to the negotiations.

But Gaza would stay under Israeli military control in the absence of a post-war US plan for Israel to cede power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu rejects. Arab states have shown little inclination to press Israel to compromise or push the decaying PA to overhaul its leadership to take over.

"Israel will remain in Gaza militarily in the foreseeable future because any withdrawal carries the risk of Hamas reorganizing. Israel believes that the only way to maintain the military gains is to stay in Gaza," Khatib told Reuters.

For Netanyahu, such a result would mark a strategic victory, consolidating a status quo that aligns with his vision: Preventing Palestinian statehood while ensuring Israel's long-term control over Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem -- territories internationally recognised as integral to a future Palestinian state.

The Gaza war erupted when Hamas militants stormed into Israel on October 07, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel responded with an air and land offensive that has killed 45,000 people, health authorities there say, displaced 1.2 million and left much of the enclave in ruins.

While the ceasefire pact would bring an immediate end to the Gaza hostilities, it would not address the deeper, decades-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Arab and Western officials say.

On the ground, prospects for a Palestinian state, an option repeatedly ruled out by Netanyahu's government, have become increasingly unattainable, with Israeli settler leaders optimistic that Trump will align closely with their views.

A surge in settler violence and the increasing confidence of the settler movement - highway billboards in some West Bank areas bear the message in Arabic "No Future in Palestine" - reflect a growing squeeze on Palestinians.

Even if the Trump administration were to push for an end to the conflict, "any resolution would be on Israel’s terms," said Hiltermann of the Crisis Group.

"It's over when it comes to a Palestinian state, but the Palestinians are still there," he said.

In Trump's previous term, Netanyahu secured several diplomatic wins, including the “Deal of the Century,” a US-backed peace plan which Trump floated in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The plan, if implemented, marks a dramatic shift in US policy and international agreements by overtly aligning with Israel and deviating sharply from a long-standing land for peace framework that has historically guided negotiations.

It would allow Israel to annex vast stretches of land in the occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. It would also recognize Jerusalem as the "undivided capital of Israel" - effectively denying Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital, a central aspiration in their statehood goals and in accordance with UN resolutions.

SYRIA AT CRITICAL CROSSROADS

Across the border from Israel, Syria stands at a critical juncture following the overthrow of Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani.

Golani now faces the monumental task of consolidating control over a fractured Syria, where the military and police force have collapsed. HTS has to rebuild from scratch, securing borders and maintaining internal stability against threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime, and other adversaries.

The greatest fear among Syrians and observers alike is whether HTS, once linked to al-Qaeda but now presenting itself as a Syrian nationalist force to gain legitimacy, reverts to a rigid Islamist ideology.

The group’s ability or failure to navigate this balance will shape the future of Syria, home to diverse communities of Sunnis, Shi'ites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze and Christians.

"If they succeed in that (Syrian nationalism) there's hope for Syria, but if they revert to their comfort zone of quite strongly ideologically-tainted Islamism, then it's going to be divisive in Syria," said Hiltermann.

"You could have chaos and a weak Syria for a long time, just like we saw in Libya and Iraq."

Iran: Biggest loser after Assad’s fall

Among the central factors that led to the ouster of Bashar al Assad was Iranian and Russian decisions not to intervene yet again to prop him up. While Syria’s trajectory remains highly uncertain, its post-Assad posture is likely to be inimical to both the countries.    

Tehran had long used Syria as vector to project influence in the region and marshalled significant resources and manpower to keep Assad in power when the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011.

Moscow similarly saw its ties with Assad as a source of regional influence, and its 2015 intervention in Syria was decisive in Assad maintaining his stranglehold on power.

But with Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and Iran — and its allies like Hezbollah — severely weakened by the post October 07, 2023 conflict with Israel, neither patron was willing to rescue Assad once again.

USIP’s Garrett Nada explains what Assad’s ouster means for Iran: 

The toppling of the Assad regime is a major loss for Iran, which has not been so isolated or vulnerable in the region since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Syria was Iran’s only close state ally in the Middle East. It was a frontline against Iran’s archenemy Israel and the linchpin of Tehran’s ability to project power in the Levant. For four decades, Syria was the main conduit for Iran’s supply of weapons and equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which became the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.

Iran’s extensive support to Assad during the Syrian civil war, which broke out in 2011, reflected the country’s importance for Tehran’s regional strategy. Iran deployed thousands of military advisers and troops, mobilized tens of thousands of foreign Shiite fighters from as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan to bolster regime forces, and organized a new Syrian paramilitary and provided billions of dollars in aid. Iran’s efforts, coupled with Russian air support, helped keep Assad in control of much of Syria until late 2024.  

Iranian officials quickly accepted the fate of the Assad regime despite all the blood and treasure invested. “It is the Syrian people who must decide on the future of their country and its political and governmental system,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on December 08, 2024.

Iran’s foreign ministry expressed a willingness to engage with a new government. “The Iranian and Syrian nations have always had long-standing and friendly relationship,” it said on December 08.

“It is expected that this relationship will continue with a wise and forward-looking approach by both nations, based on mutual interests and adherence to international legal obligations.”

Iran asked HTS to protect Shiite holy sites in Syria, and HTS confirmed that it would protect the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus.

Yet Iran’s future relationship with Syria is dubious. Many of the players poised to play key roles in the transition hold Iran responsible for propping up the brutal Assad regime.

“This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, said in his victory speech on December 08.

On the same day, Iran’s embassy in Damascus, previously evacuated, was vandalized and looted. Posters of the supreme leader and other Iranians were torn and discarded on the floor.

The fall of Assad may push Iran to reconsider its “forward defense” strategy. For decades, Iran has relied on the “Axis of Resistance,” including Syria and militia allies across region, to pressure Israel and deter strikes on Iranian soil. The goal was to keep conflicts far from Iran’s borders. But the axis already faced severe setbacks before Assad’s departure.

Israel significantly weakened both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon during the war that erupted after the Hamas-led October 07 terrorist attacks. Israeli forces killed senior leaders and thousands of fighters and degraded both groups’ abilities to wage war. Iran will face significant logistical challenges to resupplying Hezbollah without the Syrian land bridge.

Meanwhile, Iran lacks credible mechanisms to deter Israel. Tehran launched unprecedented direct attacks on Israel, one in April 2024 including 170 drones, at least 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles, and one in October 2024 including more than 180 ballistic missiles. But neither caused significant damage or dissuaded Israel from launching counterattacks, the second of which crippled Iran’s air defenses and damaged missile production capabilities.

The remaining members of the “Axis of Resistance” are not much help in terms of deterring Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have proven resilient despite attacks by the US and Israel but have only carried out sporadic long-range missile and drone attacks.

The Iraqi militias backed by Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, are also relatively peripheral and have not caused much damage to Israeli targets.

With limited options, a growing number of Iranian officials have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to allow the production of nuclear weapons. As of late 2024, Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium to fuel one nuclear bomb in as little as one or two weeks.

Tehran would need several months or more than a year to assemble a warhead and marry it to a delivery system, such as a ballistic missile. But moving to weaponize would come with its own serious risks.

 

Israel occupies vast land of Syria

According to the Hebrew media Israeli military has occupied more than 370 square kilometers of Syria that is larger than the besieged Gaza Strip. 

On Tuesday, it was reported that Israeli infantry was advancing in some neighborhoods of the city of Hader in Quneitra province, southwestern Syria.

The Israeli news television channel i24 NEWS stated that Israeli ground forces destroyed Syrian army military sites and assets in southern Syria.

The Israeli news outlet indicated that the activity was approved by the necessary levels and carried out with the assistance of armored battalions deployed in the region and infantry fighters.

According to the Israeli military correspondent Yinon Shalom Yitah, the operation targeted military infrastructure belonging to the Syrian army.

Since the fall of the Syrian president, the Israeli army continues to seize territory, after occupying Jabal Sheikh (Mount Hermon) and the buffer zone in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

The occupation forces are now only 15 kilometers away from the international highway between Damascus and Beirut.

They have also seized the most significant freshwater sources in southern Syria, located along the Yarmouk River. 

For decades, a large portion of Syrian households and businesses have relied on these basins along the Yarmouk River for sanitized water supplies. 

The Israeli occupation continues its attacks on military positions to neutralize Syria’s combat capability. 

The Israeli army claimed that its attacks over the past few days have “severely damaged Syria’s air defense system,” destroying “more than 90% of strategic surface-to-air missiles.”

Meanwhile, Israeli occupation forces continue a ground invasion into southern Syria, expanding its control over new Syrian villages along the border with Lebanon.

Israeli occupation forces have brought in engineering equipment towards the slopes of Jabal Sheikh (Mount Hermon) in a bid to dig trenches and prevent any potential connection with Lebanese territories.

HTS: The B team of United States and Israel

The clandestine ties between Israel and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that took over Damascus last Sunday are coming under close scrutiny. It is our humble request to all the Muslims that they should try to understand the dirty drama being staged by United States with the connivance of Israel.

The HTS is originally an offshoot of ISIL, also known as ISIS and Daesh in Arabic, and al-Qaeda. It was previously referred to as the Nusra Front, underwent a rebranding in 2017 to alter public perception regarding its past actions.

Israel’s support for ISIL and al-Qaeda terrorists who fought against the Syrian government after the 2011 Arab Spring. Soon after the rebels seized the Syrian capital, Israel began a widespread bombing campaign pounding the country’s military facilities. The Israeli strikes were aimed at destroying Syria’s military capabilities amid fears that they could potentially be used against the regime. 

Israel also violated the 1974 agreement with Syria and deployed its ground troops into the Syrian territory.  The Israeli military has seized control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights in Syria that was created as part of the accord. Its forces have occupied some regions inside Syria beyond the zone.

The most striking is that HTS has kept mum about the Israeli airstrikes and ground incursion into Syria for several days. 

On Friday, Syria’s transitional government that operates under the supervision of HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, condemned Israel’s aggression against Syria. 

In a letter to the United Nations, the new transitional government described Israel’s land grab in Syria as a serious violation of the1974 armistice agreement. 

The letter also rebuked Israel for conducting air raids across Syria. 

"The Syrian Arab Republic condemns in the strongest terms this Israeli aggression," it said. 

Syria’s current rulers have been under fire over their inaction in the face of Israel’s acts of aggression. 

The statement's issuance aims to redirect attention from the rebels' inaction regarding Israel's appropriation of land and its airstrikes in Syria.

HTS members, many of whom are former members of Al-Qaeda and ISIL, received support from Israel in the wake of the civil war in Syria that followed the Arab Spring. 

Israeli media disclosed in 2014 that the Israeli military not only offered medical assistance to terrorists fighting in Syria but also maintained connections with them. 

UN observers in the Golan Heights meticulously detailed instances of contact between Israeli troops and rebels, including Syrians being sent into Israel for medical treatment, and the transfer of items and containers, the Times of Israel reported in December 214, citing records maintained by the UN disengagement force in the Golan demilitarized zone.

The rebels are currently attempting to obscure their connections with Israel under the guise of a new name, as they anticipate an increase in anti-regime sentiment due to its aggressive actions in Syria.

 

A prospective US war with Iran is pending

United States interference, at the behest of Netanyahu’s far-right Israel, has left the Middle East in ruins, with over a million dead and open wars raging in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine, and with Iran on the brink of a nuclear arsenal.

The story is simple, in stark violation of international law, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers claim the right to rule over seven million Palestinians. When Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands leads to militant resistance, Israel labels the resistance “terrorism” and calls on the US to overthrow the Middle East governments that back the “terrorists.” The US, under the sway of the Israel Lobby, goes to war on Israel’s behalf.

The fall of Syria this past week is the culmination of the US-Israel campaign against Syria that goes back to 1996 with Netanyahu’s arrival to office as Prime Minister. The US-Israel war on Syria escalated in 2011 and 2012, when Barack Obama covertly tasked the CIA with the overthrow of the Syrian Government in Operation Timber Sycamore. That effort finally came to “fruition” this week, after more than 300,000 deaths in the Syrian war since 2011.

Syria’s fall came swiftly because of more than a decade of crushing economic sanctions, the burdens of war, the US seizure of Syria’s oil, Russia’s priorities regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and most immediately, Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, which was the key military backstop to the Syrian Government. No doubt Assad often misplayed his own hand and faced severe internal discontent, but his regime was targeted for collapse for decades by the US and Israel.

Since 2011, the US-Israel perpetual war on Syria, including bombing, jihadists, economic sanctions, US seizure of Syria’s oil fields, and more, has sunk the Syrian people into misery.

In the immediate two days following the collapse of the government, Israel conducted about 480 strikes across Syria, and completely destroyed the Syrian fleet in Latakia. Pursuing his expansionist agenda, Prime Minister Netanyahu illegally claimed control over the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights and declared that the Golan Heights will be a part of the State of Israel “for eternity.”

Netanyahu’s ambition to transform the region through war, which dates back almost three decades, is playing out in front of our eyes. In a press conference on December 09, 2024 the Israeli prime minister boasted of an “absolute victory,” justifying the on-going genocide in Gaza and escalating violence throughout the region.

The long history of Israel’s campaign to overthrow the Syrian Government is not widely understood, yet the documentary record is clear. Israel’s war on Syria began with US and Israeli neoconservatives in 1996, who fashioned a “Clean Break” strategy for the Middle East for Netanyahu as he came to office.

The core of the “clean break” strategy called for the Israel (and the US) to reject “land for peace,” the idea that Israel would withdraw from the occupied Palestinian lands in return for peace. Instead, Israel would retain the occupied Palestinian lands, rule over the Palestinian people in an Apartheid state, step-by-step ethnically cleanse the state, and enforce so-called “peace for peace” by overthrowing neighboring governments that resisted Israel’s land claims.

The Clean Break strategy asserts, “Our claim to the land—to which we have clung for hope for 2000 years—is legitimate and noble,” and goes on to state, “Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which the US can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon…”

In his 1996 book Fighting Terrorism, Netanyahu set out the new strategy. Israel would not fight the terrorists; it would fight the states that support the terrorists. More accurately, it would get the US to do Israel’s fighting for it.

 

As he elaborated in 2001, the first and most crucial thing to understand is this: There is no international terrorism without the support of sovereign states.… Take away all this state support, and the entire scaffolding of international terrorism will collapse into dust.

Netanyahu’s strategy was integrated into US foreign policy. Taking out Syria was always a key part of the plan. This was confirmed to General Wesley Clark after 9/11.

He was told, during a visit at the Pentagon, that “we’re going to attack and destroy the governments in seven countries in five years—we’re going to start with Iraq, and then we’re going to move to Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.”

Iraq would be first, then Syria, and the rest. (Netanyahu’s campaign for the Iraq War is spelled out in detail in Dennis Fritz’s new book, Deadly Betrayal. The role of the Israel Lobby is spelled out in Ilan Pappé’s new book, Lobbying for Zionism on Both Sides of the Atlantic). The insurgency that hit US troops in Iraq set back the five-year timeline, but did not change the basic strategy.

The US has by now led or sponsored wars against Iraq (invasion in 2003), Lebanon (US funding and arming Israel), Libya (NATO bombing in 2011), Syria (CIA operation during 2010’s), Sudan (supporting rebels to break Sudan apart in 2011), and Somalia (backing Ethiopia’s invasion in 2006).

A prospective US war with Iran, ardently sought by Israel, is still pending.

Syria to face Libya or Sudan like situation

In a commentary published on December 09, 2024, a Middle East security expert at Princeton University says once the Syrian opposition gets rid of their common enemy and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be. Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Following is the text of the article:

The Baathist system in Syria, after nearly 60 years of rule, has been overthrown and Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow. Syria stood alongside Iran during its invasion by Saddam Hussein, and Iran, in turn, stood with the Syrian and Iraqi governments during the assault by the Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda on Syria and Iraq from 2011 to 2017.

The alliance of Russia, Iran and the Axis of Resistance led to the defeat of militant groups and the preservation of the sovereignty of these two Arab countries. However, at the same time, Assad's government had no alignment with democracy, and western and Arab leaders were fearful and angry about the extensive presence and influence of Iran and Russia in Syria. In any case, the overthrow of the Syrian political system has created a major shift in the region's geopolitics.

In the short term, Iran, Russia, Iraq and the Axis of Resistance will be the main losers from Assad's downfall. The collapse of the Assad government will be a major blow to the axis, weakening Iran's geopolitical influence in the region.

Syria has been the only land route for the supply and transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, and cutting off this route not only creates a strategic challenge for Hezbollah but also weakens Iran's leverage in the Palestinian issue. Moreover, the potential spread of insecurity to Iraq and Iran - and the weakening of Iran's diplomatic support - are significant consequences for Iran and the axis.

Turkey main winner

The fall of the Syrian government could also pose threats to Iraq's security, both in terms of the Kurdish region and from the aspirations of extremist groups for Sunni-majority areas in the country, as well as the potential activation of IS sleeper cells.

In the short term, Israel might find an opportunity to further weaken Hezbollah and the axis in the entire region. However, the activities of new Islamist armed groups at its borders, the rise of Islamist movements and the potential impact on Syria's future stance on the Palestinian issue and the occupied Golan Heights could increase long-term national security threats for Israel.

In the short term, the US and the West will be winners because the fall of Assad will significantly reduce Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

However, the Islamist group that seized Damascus and toppled Assad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was proscribed as a terror organization by the Britain in 2017 and the US in 2018 because of its links to al-Qaeda. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa), who was designated a terrorist by the US in 2013.

It is uncertain how the collapse of Syria's secular government and the rise of Islamists will impact the long-term interests of the US, with the differing perspectives between the US and Turkey on the Kurdish issue, the ambiguity surrounding the future actions of the opposition and the prospect of increasing instability in the region.

Turkey is the main winner. Ankara may hope to resolve the Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey, exert more effective control over the Kurds and strengthen its role in the Palestinian issue, as well as cement alliances with like-minded groups in the region.

While Arab countries are also pleased with the reduction of Iran's influence in Syria, the military operations of HTS and other militant groups were managed and organied by Turkey, all of which have an affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Several Arab countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, are opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideology. Therefore, Turkey's power projection in the region and the Brotherhood's potential future dominance in Syria could be perceived as a new threat by some Arab countries.

Regarding the political future of Syria, two scenarios can be imagined: a peaceful transition to a new system; or a Libyan and Sudanese-style outcome.

A peaceful transition could be achieved if the opposition continues with its moderate rhetoric and actions. However, it is composed of diverse and fragmented groups that have united solely to eliminate a common enemy.

Once this shared enemy is removed and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be.

Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Another important factor is the conflicting interests of the many external actors, who will each try to increase their influence over Syria's situation in various ways.

In any scenario, future developments in Syria will have a significant impact on the region's geopolitics. Therefore, finding a solution that is acceptable to both regional and global powers is crucial.

In April 2017, at the Carnegie Conference in Washington, I proposed 10 principles for resolving the Syrian crisis: 1) Resolving the Syrian crisis through diplomacy, not war; 2) A face-saving solution for all the main parties involved;  3) Serious and collective cooperation to eradicate terrorism from Syria; 4) Preserving Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty; 5) Preventing the collapse of the Syrian army and security institutions; 6) Forming an inclusive government in Syria; 7) Building a new Syria based on the will and vote of the majority of the Syrian nation; 8) Ensuring the protection of minorities in Syria; 9) Holding free elections under the supervision of the United Nations regarding the new government and constitution of Syria; 10) A comprehensive package of economic aid for Syria's reconstruction, the return of refugees, and other humanitarian issues.

Although there was no receptive ear for these ideas at that time, today, these 10 principles could still be a comprehensive and sustainable package to resolve the Syrian crisis.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

Iran to lose oil sales to Syria

According to Argus, the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from power over the weekend has not only dealt a major blow to Iran and its designs for the Levant region, but it has also eliminated a critically important outlet for Tehran's sanctions-hit oil. Iran produced around 3.33 million bpd during September-November.

Long considered Iran's top Arab ally, Assad enjoyed significant military and economic support from Tehran over the past decade, as Iran saw him as the focal point for its regional influence. Syria also provided the main supply routes to Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, the crown jewel in Iran's so-called ‘Axis of Resistance'.

Part of Iran's assistance was in the form of shipments of crude and refined oil products to help Assad's regime meet fuel demand in the areas under its control.

Once more than a 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) producer, Syria's crude output has been on the decline over the past three decades. Just before the start of the civil war in 2011, production had already slipped below 400,000 bpd. lately, it was less than 100,000 bpd, and only around 16,000 bpd of that comes from fields in areas under the former government's control.

This left Assad's regime — itself restricted by western sanctions — critically short of crude to feed its two refineries in Banias and Homs, even though both have been operating below capacity because of damage sustained during the civil war.

Iran helped plug the gap by sending crude and products to the 140,000 bpd Banias refinery on Syria's Mediterranean coast on an ad hoc basis.

Iranian crude exports to Syria averaged around 55,000 bpd in January-November this year, down from 80,000 bpd in 2023 and 72,000 bpd in 2022, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler.

Vortexa puts shipments higher at 60,000 to 70,000 bpd so far this year and 90,000 bpd in 2023. Iran has also been sending around 10,000 to 20,000 bpd of refined products to Syria in recent years, according to consultancy FGE. Iran's oil exports to Syria have mostly been in the form of grants to support the Assad regime. The government's collapse could put an end to these flows for the time being, while Tehran takes a wait and see approach to what comes next in Syria.

The first sign of that came over the weekend when the Iran-flagged Lotus, which left Kharg Island on November 11, destined for Banias, reversed course just as it was about to enter the Suez Canal. The tanker is now headed back through the Red Sea without specifying a destination.

Although supplies to Syria make up a very small share of Iran's overall 1.6 million to 1.8 million bpd of crude exports, Tehran may not want to lose it as an outlet for good, given the difficulties of finding a replacement while sanctions remain in place.

"The flow will stop, at least for the time being," said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at FGE.

Iran will want to continue supplying this oil to Syria, or else it may be forced to cut production by anywhere between 50,000 to 100,000 bpd if it is unable to ultimately place those barrels in China. Alternatively, Iran could opt to build the volumes it holds offshore in floating storage.

"We usually see the same tankers shuttling between Iran and Syria," according to Vortexa's senior oil analyst Armen Azizian. "If that trade subsides, we could see some of these tankers unemployed or put into floating storage, which would rise, at least in the short-term," he said.

Lotus is one of these tankers, having made the trip to Syria and back five times in 2023, and twice so far in 2024. The crude cargo it is carrying now "could be returned to Iran and put into onshore tanks or go into floating storage off Iran," Azizian said.

 

What Ayatollah says on fall of Assad regime?

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei directly addressed thousands of Iranians from different walks of on Wednesday. He spoke on current regional matters, particularly the latest developments in Syria.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government collapsed on Sunday after his army refrained from countering a new terror insurgency that began in the country’s northwestern Aleppo region.

Here are seven questions Ayatollah Khamenei answered on Syria during his Wednesday remarks:

1. Who is behind the latest resurgence of terrorism in Syria?

A neighbor of Syria has been involved. But the main architects have been the US and Israel

2. How did the US and Israel aid terrorists in their offensive?

A joint US and Israeli blockade effectively sealed Syria's land and air borders, preventing the entry of both people and humanitarian aid.

3. Could Syria have foreseen the insurgency that ousted Bashar al-Assad?

Iran's intelligence services warned Syria of the impending attacks months in advance of their execution in late November.

4. What will happen to the Syrian territories recently seized by the US and Israel?

They will eventually be liberated by the courageous youth of Syria.

5. How did the Syrian government collapse?

The Syrian government collapsed because of a lack of resistance from the country’s national army, which prevented volunteer forces from other areas from intervening.

6. Why did Iran maintain a presence in Syria in recent years?

Tehran’s goal was to eliminate Daesh terrorists who were a threat to not only Iran but the entire region. Iran was never supposed to replace the Syrian army.

7. What lessons can be learned from the recent developments in Syria?

One must not be heedless of the enemy. One must not underestimate its enemies either.

 

Israeli attacks on Syrian military installations

Israel has confirmed it carried out attacks on Syria's naval fleet, as part of its efforts to neutralize military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said its ships struck the ports at Al-Bayda and Latakia on Monday night, where 15 vessels were docked.

The BBC has verified videos showing blasts at the port of Latakia, with footage appearing to show extensive damage to ships and parts of the port.

The IDF also said its warplanes had conducted more than 350 air strikes on targets across Syria, while moving ground forces into the demilitarized buffer zone between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights.

Earlier, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said it had documented more than 310 strikes by the IDF since the Syrian government was overthrown by rebels on Sunday.

In a statement, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF was aiming to "destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel".

He added that the operation to destroy the Syrian fleet had been a "great success".

The IDF said a wide range of targets had been struck - including airfields, military vehicles, anti-aircraft weapons and arms production sites - in the Syrian capital, Damascus, as well as Homs, Tartus and Palmyra.

It also targeted weapon warehouses, ammunition depots and "dozens" of sea-to-sea missiles.

It added that it had done so to prevent them "from falling into the hands of extremists".

In a video message, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Syrian rebel group that ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), that Israel would "respond forcefully" if they allow Iran to "re-establish itself in Syria".

He has previously expressed a desire for peaceful ties with the new Syrian government, and cast its interventions as defensive.

Rami Abdul Rahman, the founder of the SOHR, described the impact of the strikes as destroying "all the capabilities of the Syrian army" and said that "Syrian lands are being violated".

Meanwhile, the IDF also confirmed it had troops operating in Syrian territory beyond the buffer zone bordering the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The IDF acknowledged that its troops had entered Syrian territory but told the BBC that reports of tanks approaching Damascus were "false".

It said some troops had been stationed within the Area of Separation that borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights "and then a few additional points".

"When we say a few additional points, we're talking the area of the Area of Separation, or the area of the buffer zone in vicinity," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told the BBC.

BBC Verify has geolocated an image of an IDF soldier standing just over half a kilometer beyond the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, inside Syria on a hillside near the village of Kwdana.

On Monday, the Israeli military released photos of its troops who crossed from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights into the demilitarized buffer zone in Syria where UN peacekeepers are based.

A map showing the locations of Israeli strikes on Syria since 8 December, including Tartous, Masyaf, Qusayr Corssing, Al Mayadin, Mount Qasioun, Damascus and Khalkhala airport.

The IDF seizure of Syrian positions in the buffer zone was a "temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday.

"If we can establish neighbourly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel," he said on Monday.

Turkey’s foreign ministry condemned Israel's entry into the buffer zone, accusing it of an "occupying mentality" during a "sensitive period, when the possibility of achieving the peace and stability the Syrian people have desired for many years has emerged".

This buffer zone, also known as the Area of Separation was set up as part of Israel's ceasefire agreement with Syria in 1974 to keep Israeli and Syrian forces separated, following Israel's earlier occupation of the Golan Heights.

Israel unilaterally annexed the Golan in 1981. The move was not recognized internationally, although the US did so unilaterally in 2019.

A map shows the location of the Golan Heights, between Israel and Syria. A lighter shaded area along the right-hand border of it shows the area of separation.

Asked about the IDF strikes on Monday night, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel was concerned only with defending its citizens.

"That's why we attack strategic weapons systems like, for example, remaining chemical weapons or long-range missiles and rockets in order that they will not fall into the hands of extremists," he said.

On Monday, the UN's chemical watchdog warns authorities in Syria to ensure that suspected stockpiles of chemical weapons are safe.

It is not known where or how many chemical weapons Syria has, but it's believed former President Assad kept stockpiles.

Israel's attacks come after Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital, Damascus, as Assad fled the country, reportedly for Russia. He, and before him his father, had been in power in the country since 1971.

Forces led by the Islamist opposition group HTS entered Damascus in the early hours of Sunday, before appearing on state television to declare that Syria was now "free".

 

Al-Golani: Today's reflection of veni; vidi; vici,

History shows that the United States loves to create and then demolish the phantoms. There is a long list but the most recent creation is a big mystery. Abu Mohammed al-Golani is a perfect reflection of the phrase "Veni; vidi; vici" attributed to Julius Caesar. The sentence, which translates as "I came; I saw; I conquered," is a well-known quote from Ancient Rome.

The insurgency that brought down Assad this past weekend was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which many Western governments have designated a terrorist group. The head of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has a long history of militancy. After joining al-Qaida, he participated in the fight against US forces that invaded Iraq in 2003. He moved to Lebanon in 2006, where he supervised training for fighters for Jund al-Sham, a Salafist jihadi organization. He then returned to Iraq in 2008 to fight for the Islamic State group. The US Army briefly arrested him, and following his release, he moved to Syria after the 2011 uprising against Assad. He established the transnational jihadi al-Nusra Front, focusing on Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon.

After Assad regained control of Aleppo in late 2016, al-Golani changed the name of the group to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. He settled in the province of Idlib and established the Syrian Salvation Government, abandoning the doctrine of transnational jihad to focus on Syria instead. He declared that his goal had shifted to eliminating the Assad regime and establishing Islamic rule in Syria, saying that his membership in al-Qaida and association with the Islamic State group were a thing of the past. He consolidated his authoritarian control over Idlib and marginalized other opposition groups, both religious and secular.

 

 

Syrian Interim Leader

Syria's new interim leader announced on Tuesday he was taking charge of the country as caretaker prime minister with the backing of the former rebels who toppled President Bashar al-Assad three days ago.

In a brief address on state television, Mohammed al-Bashir, a figure little known across most of Syria who previously ran an administration in a pocket of the northwest controlled by rebels, said he would lead the interim authority until March 01, 2025.

"Today we held a cabinet meeting that included a team from the Salvation government that was working in Idlib and its vicinity, and the government of the ousted regime," he said.

"The meeting was under the headline of transferring the files and institutions to caretake the government."

Bashir ran the rebel-led Salvation Government before the 12-day lightning rebel offensive swept into Damascus.

Behind him were two flags - the green, black and white flag flown by opponents of Assad throughout the civil war, and a white flag with the Islamic oath of faith in black writing, typically flown in Syria by Sunni Islamist fighters.

In the Syrian capital, banks reopened for the first time since Assad's overthrow. Shops also opened again, traffic returned to the roads, cleaners were out sweeping the streets and there were fewer armed men about.

Two sources close to the rebels said their command had ordered fighters to withdraw from cities, and for police and internal security forces affiliated with the main rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) to deploy there.

HTS is a former al Qaeda affiliate that led the anti-Assad revolt and has lately downplayed its jihadist roots.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington fully supports Syria's political transition process and wants it to lead to inclusive and non-sectarian governance.

US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer told Reuters Washington was still working out how it will engage with the rebel groups and added that as yet there had been no formal change of policy and that actions were what counted.

Finer said US troops in northeastern Syria as part of a counter-terrorism mission would be staying there, and the top US general responsible for the Middle East visited them on Tuesday, as well as US-backed Kurdish Syrian forces (SDF).

Shattering of Axis of Resistance

The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant and unexpected development for Iran, comparable in its surprise to the Taliban’s swift takeover of Kabul in 2021. Iran has been a steadfast ally of Assad, who thought the cost of resistance is less than the cost of compromise. Tehran provided Damascus with substantial military and financial support throughout the Syrian civil war. The sudden downfall of Assad’s government not only disrupts Iran’s strategic foothold in the Levant but also challenges its influence in the broader Middle East region.

The rapid fall of the Western-backed government in Kabul — with which Tehran had sought to engage diplomatically to maintain stability along Iran’s eastern border — similarly caught the Iranian leadership off guard. This event as well as Assad’s toppling both underscore the volatility of regional alliances and the complexities Iran faces in navigating its foreign policy objectives amid rapidly changing political landscapes.

While Iran had at least prepared for a scenario of the Taliban’s return and established some contacts and exchanges with the group even before the latter returned to power, the collapse of the Assad regime, described as a key link in the Axis of Resistance, came more suddenly.

Only a few days before the fall of Damascus to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Iran started evacuating its key assets and personnel, including high-ranking military advisors and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to save critical resources.

It is vital for Iran at this point to secure a role in shaping the future of Syria’s political landscape to prevent an adversarial government and to be able to preserve some level of strategic influence in the region.

Although the common border with Afghanistan is perhaps the number one security concern for Iran to the east, Syria’s strategic value cannot be overstated when it comes to Iran’s western flank.

Syria was the heart of the resistance, which provided a direct link to Hezbollah in Lebanon and supported Iran’s deterrence against Israel. Thus, losing Syria not only disrupts the Axis of Resistance but also weakens Iran’s ability to project power in the region.

In the absence of Iranian proxies on the ground, the resulting power vacuum is likely to be filled by Turkey or Saudi Arabia, which in turn could force Iran to redirect its focus to defending its interests in other places.

At home, the legitimacy of the Iranian regime was severely damaged by its violent crackdowns on the Mahsa Amini protests in late 2022-early 2023. At the same time, Iran’s broad and substantial investments in Syria and elsewhere, which many Iranians saw as a costly miscalculation, intensified public criticism and political dissent over neglected economic issues.

Fears that their country could follow a path toward civil war, similar to those in Syria and Libya, deterred some from advocating for regime change at any cost. If Syria now descends into another civil war with further destruction, it could validate these concerns. However, if Syria manages to form an inclusive and stable government free of revenge, it could inspire Iranians.

In the aftermath of Assad’s collapse, Tehran will likely recalibrate its regional strategy, strengthening its militia networks, particularly Hezbollah and Shi’a militias in Syria and Iraq as the primary focus. These will need to serve as Tehran’s primary tool for projecting power in the absence of a friendly Syrian government.

Iran may also attempt to expand its regional alliances with Russia and China to sustain its ambitions. However, given the outcome of its previous reliance on Moscow to protect the Assad regime, Iran may need to recalculate the level of Russian support it can truly expect.

Rethinking its Syria policy may additionally encourage Tehran to shift from overt to covert approaches — a potentially challenging aim due to Iran’s over-stretched resources.

Assad’s downfall marks a significant setback for Iran’s regional strategy, disrupting the latter’s network of alliances and diminishing its influence in the Levant.

Courtesy: Middle East Institute

 

 

 

Iranian strategy to keep its influence intact in Middle East

According to Reuters, Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria's new leadership after the ouster of Bashar al-Assad It is an attempt to "prevent a hostile trajectory" between the countries.

The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations. Assad's fall removed a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world.

Hours after Assad's fall, Iran said it expected relations with Damascus to continue based on the two countries' "far-sighted and wise approach" and called for the establishment of an inclusive government representing all segments of Syrian society.

There is little doubt about Tehran's concern about how the change of power in Damascus will affect Iran's influence in Syria, the lynchpin of its regional clout.

But there is no panic as Tehran seeks diplomatic avenues to establish contact with people whom one of the officials called "those within Syria's new ruling groups whose views are closer to Iran's".

The main concern for Iran is whether Assad's successor will push Syria away from Tehran's orbit, a scenario Iran is keen to avoid.

A hostile post-Assad Syria would deprive Lebanese armed group Hezbollah of its only land supply route and deny Iran its main access to the Mediterranean and the front line with Israel.

After losing of an important ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the white House in January 2024, this engagement is key to stabilize ties and avoiding further regional tensions.

According to Reuters, Tehran has established contacts with two groups inside the new leadership and the level of interaction will be assessed in the coming days.

Tehran was wary of Trump using Assad's removal as leverage to intensify economic and political pressure on Iran, either to force concessions or to destabilize the Islamic Republic.

After pulling the United States out of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with six major powers in 2018, then-President Trump pursued a "maximum pressure" policy that led to extreme economic hardship and exacerbated public discontent in Iran. Trump is staffing his planned administration with hawks on Iran.

In 2020, Trump, as president, ordered a drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, Iran's most powerful military commander and mastermind of overseas attacks on US interests and those of its allies.

Iran is now only left with two options: fall back and draw a defensive line in Iraq or seek a deal with Trump.

The fall of Assad exposed Tehran's dwindling strategic leverage in the region, exacerbated by Israel's military offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.

Iran's clerical rulers spent billions of dollars propping up Assad during the civil war that erupted in Syria in 2011 and deployed its Revolutionary Guards to Syria to keep its ally in power and maintain Tehran's "Axis of Resistance" to Israel and US influence in the Middle East.

Assad's fall removes a critical link in Iran's regional resistance chain that served as a crucial transit route for Tehran to supply arms and fund its proxies and particularly Hezbollah.

 

 

Syrian army announce fall of Assad regime

The Syrian army command notified their officers that the Assad regime has fallen, a Syrian officer informed Reuters on Sunday morning.

At the same time, the head of Syria's main opposition group abroad Hadi al-Bahra Syrian said on Sunday that Damascus is now "free of Bashar al-Assad."

Assad flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters, as rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.

Thousands in cars and on foot congregated at a main square in Damascus waving and chanting "Freedom," witnesses said.

On its telegram, the rebel group stated, "After 50 years of oppression under the regime, and 13 years of crime, tyranny and displacement, and after a long struggle and fight and confronting all forms of occupation forces, we announce today on 12-8-2024 the end of this dark era and the beginning of a new era for Syria."

"To the displaced all over the world, free Syria awaits you."

It added that the new Syria will be a place where everyone "coexists in peace, justice prevails and rights are established, where every Syrian is honored and his dignity is preserved, we turn the page on the dark past and open a new horizon for the future."

 

What if Bashar government falls in Syria?

Donald Trump will formally take charge as president of United States on January 20, 2025. The strategic regions of the world are being trapped in a situation known as "tactical wars". These conflicts do not seek a definitive victory but rather aim to create a state of instability and uncertainty in key areas vital to US global interests.

The "America First" slogan, central to Trump's agenda, can only materialize if Washington succeeds in maintaining its hegemony over the major geostrategic regions. However, this dominance is only possible if one essential factor is guaranteed: an active and sustained military presence in these regions.

In these sensitive territories, the United States faces growing resistance from both local governments and popular movements demanding the withdrawal of American troops. If Washington were to yield to these demands and abandon Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, or the Persian Gulf; renounce its intervention in Ukraine and the Caucasus under the pretext of NATO; or reduce its activities in the South China Sea, it would risk becoming just another power, unable to maintain its global hegemony.

The United States deems it necessary to maintain its presence in these strategic regions to avoid the decline of hegemony. Its military deployments, although costly and often unpopular, are seen as the only means to ensure its position as a dominant power in an increasingly competitive world.

As explained by Iranian diplomat Mohammad Rasoul Mousavi, the strategy to preserve the United States' military presence is based on fueling what are known as "tactical wars." These wars do not seek a definitive resolution but rather aim to prolong the conflict. On one hand, they weaken the countries involved, and on the other, allow the United States to justify and impose its presence in those regions.

Mousavi interprets the resurgence of the conflict in Syria as a clear manifestation of the United States' strategic approach. In the current context, it is evident how Washington is attempting to consolidate its presence in the region. Despite avoiding responsibility for the war led by extremist militants backed by Turkey, the United States insists that the solution to the conflict is inevitably tied to its military presence in Syria— a presence that would be difficult to justify without the conflict serving as a pretext.

Additionally, there is a clear contradiction in the United States' stance. In the current offensive against the government of Bashar al-Assad, the main units fighting alongside anti-Assad forces are primarily affiliated with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This group, which separated from Al-Qaeda in 2016, has maintained a strong presence in Syria.

Since 2018, the US State Department has designated HTS as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. HTS remains a central player in the Syrian conflict, particularly in the regions of Aleppo and Hama. The group is led by Abu Muhammed al-Golani, who previously led the Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria. In 2016, al-Golani announced HTS's separation from Al-Qaeda, claiming a distance from the global terror network.

However, his ties with Al-Qaeda remain a burden, continuously attracting international attention. For example, the US still offers a US$10 million reward for the capture of al-Golani, reflecting the ongoing mistrust toward the group and its ideology.

In general, Syria is a stage where various geopolitical interests converge. In the case of Turkey, the potential fall of Bashar al-Assad would have significant strategic implications. Through its allied groups in Syria, such as the self-styled Syrian National Army and HTS, Turkey could consolidate and significantly expand its power and influence in a territory that was part of the Ottoman Empire from 1516 to 1918.

A withdrawal of Russia, its historical rival in the region, would represent a key political victory for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while constituting a defeat for Vladimir Putin and weakening Russian influence in the Middle East. Additionally, the weakening or elimination of Kurdish forces in Syria, a constant point of friction for Ankara, would be one of Turkey's primary strategic objectives.

Finally, once Syria was "pacified" by HTS and its allies, Erdogan could seize the opportunity to facilitate the return of the millions of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey, presenting Assad’s fall as the end of the war. This measure could potentially boost support for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in future elections.

The potential fall of Bashar al-Assad would have profound consequences for Russia, as it could redefine both its influence in Syria and its projection in the Middle East.

The loss of its main ally in Damascus would signal the end of its political influence in the country, marking a strategic defeat that would alter the regional balance.

Additionally, Russia would be surpassed by Turkey, which would solidify its power and influence in Syria, leading to a geopolitical reshaping in favor of Ankara.

Russia's military presence, essential to its influence in Syria, could be significantly reduced or even eliminated, representing a substantial loss of power in the region.

Moreover, Moscow would lose control of the naval base in Tartus, a strategic facility it has controlled since 1971 during the Soviet era and it serves as its only permanent military base in the Mediterranean. The loss of Tartus would deal a major blow to Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East.

The potential fall of Bashar al-Assad would also bring a series of strategic implications for Israel, directly impacting its security in the region.

For Iran, the fall of Bashar al-Assad would have political and strategic consequences. First, Iran would lose a key ally in the region.

However, the rise of Turkey as a regional power would be a blow to Iran’s interests, as it would witness its rival expanding its power while Iran's own political and military presence in Syria and Lebanon crumbles. This scenario would lead to the weakening of Shia interests in Syria, Lebanon, and even Iraq, disrupting the regional balance and undermining Iran's influence in these key countries.

Finally, for the United States, the fall of Bashar al-Assad would have significant strategic implications. First, it would mean Russia's withdrawal from Syria, which would considerably weaken Moscow's influence in the region, reducing its projection of power in the Middle East.

Additionally, the United States would achieve a key victory by seeing the fall of Assad's government, considered one of Iran's main allies, with whom Washington maintains an openly adversarial relationship. This would mark the end of a long struggle to displace a government that has been an obstacle to US policy in the region, consolidating the influence of Washington and its allies in Syria and the Levant.

 

Syria: Insurgents Enter Aleppo

Insurgents breached Syria’s largest city Friday and clashed with government forces for the first time since 2016, in a surprise attack that sent residents fleeing and added fresh uncertainty to a region reeling from multiple wars.

The advance on Aleppo followed a shock offensive launched by insurgents Wednesday, as thousands of fighters swept through villages and towns in Syria’s northwestern countryside. Residents fled neighborhoods on the city’s edge because of missiles and gunfire, according to witnesses in Aleppo. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the country’s unresolved civil war, said dozens of fighters from both sides were killed.

The attack injected new violence into a region already experiencing wars in Gaza and Lebanon involving Israel, and other conflicts, including the Syrian civil war that began in 2011.

Aleppo has not been attacked by opposition forces since they were ousted from eastern neighborhoods in 2016 following a grueling military campaign in which Syrian government forces were backed by Russia, Iran and its allied groups.

But this time, there was no sign of a significant pushback from government forces or their allies. Instead, reports emerged of government forces melting away in the face of advances, and insurgents posted messages on social media calling on troops to surrender.

Robert Ford, who was the last US ambassador to Syria, said the attack showed that Syrian government forces are “extremely weak.” In some cases, he said, they appear to have “almost been routed.”

This week’s advances were among the largest in recent years by opposition factions, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, or HTS, and represent the most intense fighting in northwestern Syria since 2020, when government forces seized areas previously controlled by the opposition.

 

US hates and destroys three types of countries

This a very complicated subject but we have tried to be brief, concise and to the point. Let us say point blank that United States just can’t stand three types of countries: 1) countries not willing to accept its hegemony, 2) countries rich in mineral resources, especially energy products and 3) countries having strong social and cultural bonding.

The first category is led by China and Russia, which has a long history on conflict/ wars called ‘Cold War Era’. The later addition is Iran, which has been facing US sanctions for more than four decades because it termed United States ‘The Biggest Satan’.

In the second category most prominent are the oil and gas producing countries. These are hostage of US hegemony because of restriction on energy trade in ‘petro-dollars’ only. The countries facing extreme US hostilities include, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela and Russia.

United States suffers from worst social evils that include distance from religion, drug/ alcohol addiction, extra marital relation, abortion etc. Therefore, the US hate Muslim countries, some of them rich in energy resources, on top of the list are Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Ironically, the US foreign policy is dictated by three groups: 1) military complexes, 2) oil exploration and production companies and 3) companies owned and operated by Zionists.

The name of the game is create conflict, supply funds and arms to rebel groups and weaken the states. Till yesterday Venezuela was friend and biggest partner in oil trade, but at present it faces sanctions.

United States follows hybrid war and always chose battle grounds thousands of miles away from its borders, which include Korean Peninsula, Arabian Peninsula, Middle East and North Africa. This time Ukraine has been chosen to fight a proxy war against Russia. Let no one forget United States dropped two atom bombs on Japan in the Second World War.

The logical conclusion is, “United States is merchant of death, the biggest war monger and the biggest arms supplier, which wants to establish its hegemony around the world. It has the capacity to find and feed the touts, install and topple the governments and eliminate the agents when they become redundant”.

 

 

World leaders congratulate Pezeshkian

Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has received warm congratulatory messages from across the world, including the leaders of neighboring countries and prominent international organizations.

They have called for strengthening relations and cooperation with the Islamic Republic on global and regional issues.

Putin praises “constructive” ties 

Russian leader Vladimir Putin congratulated Pezeshkian on his victory in the presidential runoff and attached significance to the improvement of ties with Iran. 

"I hope that your activity as president will facilitate the further boosting of constructive bilateral cooperation on all tracks to benefit our friendly peoples, in the interests of easing regional security and stability," he said in a statement published on the Kremlin website. 

The Russian president said Moscow and Tehran "efficiently coordinate efforts in resolving the pressing issues of the international agenda".

Addressing Pezeshkian, he said in the statement, "I wish you success, good health and prosperity."

Both Iran and Russia have been targeted by stiff Western sanctions. 

Xi commends strategic mutual trust

The Chinese president issued a similar message. 

"I attach great importance to the development of China-Iran relations and am willing to work with the President to lead the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership towards deeper advancement," state news agency Xinhua cited Xi Jinping as saying.

Xi added that Iran and China "have a long history of friendly exchanges, and bilateral relations have maintained healthy and stable development... for over half a century."

He also highlighted strategic partnership between Tehran and Beijing. 

"Faced with complex regional and international situations, China and Iran have always supported each other, worked together and continued to consolidate strategic mutual trust. This has not only brought benefits to our two countries' peoples, but has also made active contributions to promoting regional and world peace and stability," the Chinese president said.

Saudi Arabia demands stronger ties  

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called for promoting ties with Iran as he congratulated Pezeshkian after winning the presidential election run-off.

“I affirm my keenness on developing and deepening the relations between our countries and people and serve our mutual interests,” Saudi Arabia’s state news agency, SPA, quoted bin Salman as saying.

Last year, a China-brokered deal saw Riyadh and Tehran re-establish diplomatic relations after years of tensions. The two Persian Gulf countries have since increased regular contact in an effort to bolster ties.

Iraq seeks closer ties 

The Iraqi president wished Pezeshkian success in his duties and in “fulfilling the ambitions and aspirations or the Iranian people”.

“We affirm our keenness to strengthen relations between Iraq and Iran in a way that serves the interests of the two neighboring countries and peoples,” Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid said in a message to Iran’s president-elect. 

Senior Iraqi Shia leader Ammar al-Hakim, a former leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and current head of the National Wisdom Movement, also sent congratulations and expressed hope that Pezeshkian can help resolve regional differences.

Other Persian Gulf Arab leaders, including Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said of Oman and Sheikh Mishal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah of Kuwait also extended their congratulations to the Iranian president-elect. 

Pakistan pushes for closer relations 

The Pakistani prime minister called for efforts to “ensure a bright future” for the two neighbors. 

“Heartiest congratulations to my brother Dr. Massoud Pezeshkian on his victory in Iran's presidential elections! I look forward to working closely with President-elect Dr. Pezeshkian to further strengthen Pakistan-Iran bilateral ties & promote regional peace & stability. As neighboring countries, Pakistan & Iran enjoy a close & historic relationship.

We must ensure a bright future for our two peoples through mutually beneficial cooperation’” Shehbaz Sharif wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. 

The Pakistani president also hoped that Tehran-Islamabad relations will grow under the Pezeshkian presidency.

“Pakistan looks forward to working together with Iran for the peace and prosperity of the region,” Asif Ali Zardari said. 

India hails long-standing relationship 

The prime minister of India also extended his congratulations to the newly elected Iranian president.

“Congratulations @drpezeshkian on your election as the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Looking forward to working closely with you to further strengthen our warm and long-standing bilateral relationship for the benefit of our peoples and the region,” Narendra Modi said in a post on X. 

South Korea wishes Iran prosperity 

In East Asia, South Korea expressed hope for improving relations between Tehran and Seoul.  

“We wish Iran a path of prosperity and development under the new government, contributing constructively to regional stability. We look forward to further enhancing our friendly relations with Iran,” South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Malaysia urges fruitful collaboration 

The Malaysian prime minister said in a message to Pezeshkian that the outcome of Iran’s election reflects the vibrant spirit of Iranian democracy and heralds a promising future for the country.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said with its rich and ancient civilization, Iran occupies a unique and prominent place in world history, and the potential for Malaysia-Iran relations is immense and filled with promise.

“We look forward to strengthening our bilateral mechanisms to deepen and broaden cooperation between the two countries. We are committed to collaborating on international platforms such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and the Developing-8 (D8),” the Malaysian leader said. 

“I look forward to welcoming Pezeshkian to Malaysia at the earliest opportunity,” he said.

Syrian president hails strategic relationship 

In Syria, President Bashar al-Assad expressed hope in a message to Pezeshkian that Tehran and Damascus will cement their “strategic” ties. 

“We will work with you to boost the Syrian-Iranian strategic relationship and open new promising horizons for bilateral cooperation as resistance will remain the common approach that we follow in order to preserve the pride of our countries and defend the interests of their peoples,” al-Assad said.

The Syrian president added in his message, “Your country, which is impregnable as it has always been, is one of the most important countries with which we are keen to ensure that the relationship is at its peak because this relationship is based on roots established through decades of mutual respect, common understanding and firm principles to which Syria and Iran have always adhered.”

Aliyev invites Pezeshkian to visit Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan’s president extended an invitation to Pezeshkian to visit his country.  

“I heartily congratulate you on your election as the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. I invite you to pay a visit to Azerbaijan to exchange views on the prospects for development of our bilateral cooperation,” Ilham Aliyev said in a letter to the Iranian newly elected president. 

He also threw a spotlight on friendly ties between Iran and Azerbaijan. 

“We attach great importance to the relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran built on solid foundations such as common religious and cultural roots, friendship and brotherhood. Today, the agreements reached on the future development areas of Azerbaijan-Iran relations based on mutual respect and good neighborliness and the implemented joint projects serve the well-being of our countries, the sustainable development and security of the region as a whole,” he said. 

Armenia PM hails warm, friendly ties 

The Armenian premier also called for deepening bilateral relations in a congratulatory message to Pezeshkian. 

"Relations with the brother country of the Islamic Republic of Iran are of special importance for the government and people of the Republic of Armenia, which has been continuously developing since the declaration of independence of Armenia," Nikol Pashinyan said.

"Continuous deepening of warm relations between Armenia and Iran in the field of bilateral cooperation and stability and prosperity of the region is of particular importance," he added.

"I am confident that with the joint efforts of our governments, the agreements reached between the Republic of Armenia and the Islamic Republic of Iran will be implemented and we will jointly implement a number of new programs for the welfare of the friendly people of Armenia and Iran," Armenia’s prime minister concluded. 

Venezuela calls for confronting hegemony 

Venezuela hailed Iran for its “commitment demonstrated to democracy” during the two rounds of elections.

“Venezuela expresses its conviction that the decision made by the Iranian people will contribute to the prosperity of this nation, as well as its consolidation as an emerging power in the nascent multipolar world,” Venezuela’s foreign minister said. 

Yvan Gil said Pezeshkian will have the “absolute support” of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his government with the aim of expanding relations and continuing to defeat “the hegemonic pretensions that threaten multilateralism and world peace”.

Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year strategic cooperation plan in 2022 in Tehran.

Both countries have been under US sanctions.

Lukashenko urges strategic partnership 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in a congratulatory message to Pezeshkian that he is convinced the two countries will promote ties.  

“The dialogue between Minsk and Tehran at all levels is steadily expanding. I am convinced that in the near future we will be able to implement all the agreements reached, including those on raising the level of the Belarusian-Iranian relations to a strategic partnership,” Lukashenko said. 

Serbia sends message of hope 

The Serbian President also congratulated Iran’s president-elect.

“Sincere congratulations to Iranian President 

@drpezeshkian. Your victory reflects citizens' trust in your vision for the future, dedication to peace, and desire for your country's progress. I am confident that your leadership will bring prosperity and well-being to your people,” Aleksandar Vucic said in a post on X. 

SCO “committed to working with Iran” 

 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is among international organization that congratulated Pezeshkian on his election as Iran’s president. 

“The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is committed to working with Iran to jointly achieve sustainable development as the main guarantor of global stability, ensuring regional security and a mechanism for equality,” Zhang Ming, the organization’s secretary general, said in his congratulatory message. 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an intergovernmental entity formed in 1996 by the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, aims to foster multilateral security, economic, and political cooperation. 

Iran's membership was initially agreed upon during late President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on September 17, 2021, and later ratified by the Iranian parliament on November 27, 2022. The formal announcement of Iran's membership occurred during a virtual summit of SCO heads of state on July 4, 2023.