In 2025, power dynamics in the Middle East shifted
significantly. Sunni factions gained influence while Shiite groups tied to Iran
weakened. Political turmoil, economic struggles, and escalating conflicts—especially
between Israel and Iran—exacerbated regional instability, hampering diplomacy,
development, and prospects for long-term peace.
Regional
Shifts and Rising Conflicts
The region faced an unprecedented level of crises, with
violence escalating in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, and Yemen. The Sunni
resurgence saw Islamist parties gaining political ground in Jordan and Syria,
where a military coup toppled the Assad regime. Iran’s influence waned, with
its proxy militias suffering major losses due to Israeli and US airstrikes.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia bolstered its regional dominance, hosting US-Russia
talks on Ukraine and offering to mediate US-Iran negotiations.
Conflicts in Gaza and the Red Sea intensified. Israel’s war
with Hamas continued, with peace efforts stalling. Hostilities between Israel
and Iran escalated, with both nations engaging in direct attacks. Houthi rebels
in Yemen disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea, causing a sharp
decline in Suez Canal traffic.
Internal
Political Shifts
In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and
Development Party (AKP) lost major local elections in 2024, signaling a shift
in public sentiment. The government’s arrest of opposition figure Ekrem
İmamoğlu in March 2025 further fueled tensions.
In Iran, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian won the presidency,
reflecting growing dissatisfaction with theocratic rule.
Tunisian President Kais Saied intensified crackdowns on
opposition, extending the prison sentence of Ennahdha leader Rachid Ghannouchi.
Syria’s Assad regime collapsed after more than 70 years in
power. Sunni militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control, igniting
sectarian clashes with Alawites. While Iran distanced itself from its
traditional proxies, its Supreme Leader insisted Tehran did not rely on foreign
militias.
Economic
and Diplomatic Fallout
Economic crises deepened, with the World Bank warning of
long-term stagnation. Diplomatic efforts faltered as regional rivalries
intensified, particularly between Israel and Iran. With increasing violence and
political upheaval, the path to stability in the Middle East remained highly
uncertain.
